When did people think the NBA became Fixed?

The NBA Finals are just days away and this nagging feeling has been bothering me for some time. For years, even decades, there has been a public perception that professional basketball is run by a higher power than the players and coaches. It has become assumed in the thoughts of the general public and by the masses that either wager on or follow the NBA that enough (not every) games are predetermined similar to professional wrestling.

I’ve personally heard this for years and have become increasingly fascinated, especially come playoff time, when the discussion and contemplation reach a fever pitch.

For me, it’s the “why factor” and wondered why elements changed from things like aliens in Roswell, NM and the U.S. Government setting up 9/11 in New York City, to the “accepted” point of view by so many that follow or bet on the NBA that it is in some way fixed.

While perusing numerous forums to see what people are thinking as I usually do, I was struck this year more than ever about comments that people shared about the NBA playoffs.

Among the various quotes found were these

“The Lakers will be in the Finals because that what (David) Stern wants.”

“The Suns and Magic have no shot (in conference finals), they (the NBA one would surmise) want the Celtics and Lakers for TV ratings.”

“Kobe (Bryant) will get every call and the Lakers will win the NBA Finals again, the series will have to go 7 to get max dollars for the league.”

While these statements in and of themselves are harmless, the follow up comments by almost everyone were in agreement.

For those under the age of 30, the single greatest impact for this belief was referee Tim Donaghy being caught and prosecuted for admitting betting on games. For the suspicious mind, this created validation of belief, that yes; it was very possible to fix a NBA game. While Donaghy stuck to his story of not fixing games, public perception was altered in their minds the fix was in.

Trying to understand where this idea was formulated in the first place, possibly it starts with the history of championship teams.

The NBA more than any other sports league, has the best teams being crowned champions. It remains the last bastion in sports where a team doesn’t just get hot and win the whole thing. How else could one explain how other the Houston Rockets of 1995-96, they are the only team other than a top three seed to win a NBA title since the current 16-team format was changed in 1984. The Rockets (sixth seed) were the defending NBA champs at the time and suffered an injury-riddled regular season before getting healthy late and became back-to-back champions.

In one way it’s easy for people to be jaded. Boston won 11 titles in 13 years in the late1950’s and 60’s and 17 overall. The Los Angeles Lakers lost to the Celtics in the finals six times in the 1960’s and have 15 titles if you count the Minneapolis Lakers who won five of the first eight when the NBA was formulated.

The Chicago Bulls won six in eight years with Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen and more recently, Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs captured four rings in nine years. Add them up and that is 42 titles among four teams in the league’s 63 years of existence, 66.6 percent and the number is guaranteed to go higher with this year’s finalists.

A good friend who I can talk candidly about these types of topics who works on the Vegas Strip doesn’t believe games are fixed, because of fixed limits on NBA contests and the lack of unusual movement, plus the sportsbooks themselves have a stake because if it were true this was happening, nobody would ever bet on professional basketball again.

I questioned a professional gambler in Nevada I’ve known for some time.

His name is Sal, who bets daily. “It is at times understandable why amateur bettors would believe the NBA has games that appear fixed, it just isn’t factual. If the league was so desperate for money and ratings, why wouldn’t every series go six or seven games, every year?

“In order for games to be fixed, you need a common denominator. Somebody that has money and wants to make more and someone else who needs money and once they taste it, wants more.”

“No NBA player is in need of cash other than maybe a 12th man on any team and they have no influence on the outcome. Would they be a source of information about team problems with the coach or girl friend problems, sure, but do you chase around making max bets at all different outlets on this information without a track record. Not me.”

Sal added, “Referees are the easiest targets because they believe they are underpaid, but their true influence has to do more with totals, since they can either blow or swallow the whistle.”
Nevertheless, public perception is still prevalent.

I put the question of fixed games in the NBA to the StatFox Forum and by the time I had to write this article, every person responded with a “yes”.

The responses were numerous, but all in agreement.

“All are fixed, easy money”.

“….billions being bet .......now when that many can control the masses who wager...why wouldn't they fix the games when the money is tilt by a 80/20 margin it is simple economics”

“Of course it’s fixed. One ref gets arrested and says I’m not the only one, and no one wants to investigate who else?

“Yes I do believe all sports are fixed. The reason is quite simple to me and that is the fact that with the amount of cash being wagered on games, there is no way they will leave the outcome to pure chance or luck.”

“Yes-because anytime money is involved it corrupts”

“Did the caveman invent fire? Is Ed "Too Tall" Jones to tall?

It certainly is intriguing subject and while there is no way to prove it one way or another, the public has spoken and they see it only one way.

Of course your comments welcome.

Inside the mind of Professional Sports Bettor

Fezzik is a professional gambler living in Las Vegas. He’s made a name for himself winning the 2008 Hilton Super Contest with 67.5 percent record against the spread on 85 wagers. Last year he also finished second in college football in Leroy’s contest, with 53-31 ATS record. He’s a featured guest on many Vegas sports betting shows since arriving in Sin City and has joined forces with Anthony Curtis at LVASports.com, which is populated by many of the industry's top gambling professionals. We sat down with Fezzik and picked his brain.


Doug Upstone: You are a highly acclaimed professional gambler, explain what that means?

Fezzik: What it means is you make you living by winning at gambling. I would call myself an “advantage player”. I will also play poker and blackjack, anything I can get an advantage at. Primarily its sports betting, that’s the most lucrative.

DU: With the football season fast approaching, explain your typical work week schedule in terms of preparation?

Fezzik: For me, you have to start on Sunday evening. Most professional gamblers I know are betting the halftime numbers on the late games and are preparing for opening numbers. For the very best players, there is no time to rest, they are not watching games to see how their bets turn out, though they may have them on, they are focused on the opening lines for the following week.

They are making their numbers for the following week on college and NFL games, so they are ready to bet as soon as the lines come up on Sunday afternoon. Because of their skill, they are able to get some really sharp bets. These bettors are not looking for in-depth analysis; they are searching for oddsmakers mistakes. They are looking for numbers they know are off by two points. Any number that is off by two or more points and they think is obvious that anybody who does serious work in studying numbers, they will just fire (bet), even if the limits are low. They are going to hit what they see as mistakes.

On Monday, they are looking at props for Monday Night Football, looking to play a middle if available or fading a public move on the side or total.

Myself, on Monday I start breaking down totals on college football for the following week, since those numbers don’t come until Tuesday.

Starting on Tuesday, everything to this point has just been my opinion. I will meet with a group of sharp bettors in Las Vegas and kick around thoughts and ideas, often focusing in on certain games and possible player injuries. This is the more intense handicapping day. If we are all in agreement, I’ll shop for the best number and bet more on that game.

Wednesday is supposed to be an off day, but it seldom is, even if the lines have stabilized by this point. It’s fairly typical for me to work until 3 in the morning Monday night and get up at 7AM on Tuesday. I try and sleep in on Wednesday’s to prevent further sleep deprivation. Wednesday is usually date night and Thursday I return to handicapping looking for more particular advantages. I should add, in between I make any number of bets on games, be it sides or totals. Thursday my attention shifts to the various contests I entered and study the lines for what I might play. For me Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are similar.

DU: In summation, you look to attack weak numbers early and if drastic changes occur, you will address those situations if they arise?

Fezzik: Exactly. Thursday is real good for checking weather reports, if I already like an Under and adverse weather is a possibility, I’ll fire on a game that coincides with my number at current value. I won’t play an Under because of bad weather if my numbers come out higher to start.

DU: What led you to this lifestyle?

Fezzik: Always a math geek, always good at numbers and probabilities, forecasts. I view it as day trading; it’s really the same as trading on the stock market, with the exception it’s probably easier to win at this.

DU: Would you recommend this to others?

Fezzik: No. Unless you are really good at math. Most people are not very good at math and those that are move on to make really good money at other lines of work.

DU: What does a professional gambler do for fun?

Fezzik: What’s nice about being a professional gambler is you can always gamble for fun. When I’m running around I might play in poker tournament that isn’t high stakes. I might enter a $100.00 poker tournament, just to play live poker, that’s fun. I like casinos, I like hanging out in sportsbooks.

I do like to go hiking up Mt. Charleston here in Vegas, which is almost 12,000 feet. It’s great to go to Lee Canyon, which is about 9,000 feet. I was there recently and it was 80 degrees, when it was 115 degrees in Vegas. I’ll try to shoot out to Shakespearean festival in Southern Utah before the season starts. I like to play golf, though I’m not very good at it. Golf in Las Vegas is one of the best values in the summer time, playing great courses from $25.00.

DU: If you weren’t a professional gambler, what would you be doing?

Fezzik: I’m pretty sure I’d be in the financial services arena, probably pricing variable annuities or being a bond trader.

DU: Do you have a preference of college or pro football?

Fezzik: I like pro football better, but I was forced to focus on college football more, since the numbers are weaker and it’s easier to beat them. The marketplace dictates the college numbers are more beatable.

DU: Where have you found the greatest opportunities in sports wagering, sides or totals?

Fezzik: The totals are easily the weaker market. The average football better wagers less than $500.00 a game. Why would they bother to beat the most difficult thing to beat, NFL sides, instead of betting college totals? The answer is they are not very good at it as recreational players.

If you told me I could only bet $500.00 a game, I’d go bet WNBA totals and college basketball totals, clearly, which are easier to beat. The frustration is if I want to bet $2,000 on college basketball total, I might have to drive to four places, which is very difficult. The great advantage of betting a NFL side, I can wager $10,000 on a single bet at one location. If you are truly good at wagering in the NFL, you can bet your opinions forcefully and with volume.

DU: What are some of your favorite wagers for the upcoming season?

Fezzik: Do you want the ones still available or the ones that are long gone?

DU: You decide.

Fezzik: I got Seattle at +275 to win the NFC West. Denver and Tampa Bay are both likely to stink this year. If you were able to play Denver at Un7.5 this year, you have a tremendous bet. You have a good bet at U7 and a marginal bet at U6.5 wins and anything less than that is probably a bad bet. Tampa Bay Un7 is great bet; Un6.5 is good bet and Un6, garbage. It’s hard for people to hear that. They wonder how can it be a great bet at Un7 and be a terrible bet Un6? I tell them, it’s worth 100 cents to move one point on a an NFL total, if I told you a baseball team was a great bet at +200 but a bad bet at +100, you would nod your head and say that makes sense.

DU: The Florida Gators are ranked number one and the defending champions. They also have what appears to be a favorable schedule. Do you see them going unbeaten and finishing No.1 again or who else do you like?

Fezzik: Florida is the clear favorite and a monster with Tim Tebow back along with 11 defensive starters. If you give me the field against Florida, I’d take the field. In reviewing the numbers, Florida has about a 38 percent chance of winning the national championship, which is huge number. If I had to do a forecast, I’d say they would win 11 games. LSU has them at home on October 10th, which would seem the game the Gators could fall, but it will be tough to trip them up.

DU: Should the average football bettor be aggressive to start the season or be more cautious?

Fezzik: This is one of my pet peeves, since all the experts say to start slow. In my opinion, that is terrible advice. The very best wagers are made in May for the upcoming football season. The people that do their homework early and quickly, make bets like Broncos and Bengals as Pick (now Bengals -3), which is just a sick bet. That doesn’t guarantee a win, but you won’t find a better play for a variety of reasons. I see this closing at Bengals -3.5.

Last year in Week 5 on Sunday night, Pittsburgh was getting 5.5 points at Jacksonville and +6 was available at different outlets. Clearly, that is going to be a better bet than anything you find Week 10. Earlier in the year, the numbers are much further off then later in the year. For those waiting for perfect information, comes perfect lines or very tight lines. Your largest wagers should come early in the year, if you are prepared. And I don’t know any professional gambler that would disagree with that.

DU: Based on your accomplishments, what advice would you pass along to any sports bettor to give them the best chance to win?

Fezzik: I would simulate the first 200 bets and track how you are doing before betting. Keep track if you are winning or losing and write down why you would have made the bet. Next if you want to bet, I would bet peanuts; way less than you think you should bet. If you can have access to advantage player, I would frequent forums that cater to gaining knowledge. In blackjack, BJ21com, Stanford Wong’s website. I’m biased toward LVASports.com, where I’m a moderator on Anthony Curtis’ website. SharpSportsBetting.com and EOG.com are other great sites to go and ask questions and learn.

It’s hard to determine who knows what they are talking about and who doesn’t. Don’t confuse the vast majority of the touts with a professional gambler. For the most part, handicappers can be successful, but they can’t share the great expertise and teach you anything.

A great example of this is touts have their Game of the Year late in the season, when as I just explained, some of the best opportunities are early in the year. They would never think to have a Game of the Year the first few weeks of the season, because they believe this would make them look foolish.

DU: The cappers that have Game of the Year’s early end up having eight or 10, to keep the customer on the hook.

Fezzik: I like John Kelly’s advise which is “listen to everyone, follow know one”. Do your research, listen to what people like and why and go back and do more research.

DU: I think too frequently everyone is looking for the “hot guy”, whether they are a handicapper or somebody on winning streak in a forum. These guys tend to dry up in time.

Fezzik: A one year record is totally irrelevant to me. Give me someone’s five-year record or lifetime record that’s what’s really significant. Take a coin and flip it 80 times and you’ll be shocked how often you get 50 tails and 30 heads.

I wanted to emphasize this, I hear all the time, “this is the right side or the wrong side of a game”. Every game has a right side for both teams if you give me the right number. Not long ago I liked Winnipeg and Calgary Under 51 points in Canadian Football, but give me 48, sure I’d play Over, since I think the number should be 49.5. I can’t stand when people say “this is the right side of the game”. That is almost never the case. You give me enough points and I’ll take the lesser team in the right value spot.

DU: Do you play many parlays yourself?

Fezzik: There are three reasons to play parlays. Reason One- You are laying less than a $1.10 on each progressive side. Standard odds on a parlay are betting 5 to win 13 on a two-team parlay. If you win more than 13, you are effectively laying less than a $1.10 on each individual bets. You find a book that pays 14 to 5 on two-teamer, you would be playing badly not to be playing parlay. Why not play less than $1.10 if you are going to bet a lot of games?

Reason Two – If there is a correlation. An obvious correlation would be big favorites -200 or higher.

Reason Three – To circumvent the limits at a sportsbook. If you have $500 limit, you could parlay few games and parlay $300 bets and next think you know you have $1,100 in action. That’s an excellent reason to play parlays.

One thing I read is authors saying “If you hit 55 percent, your return on investment is higher playing parlays”. It’s a correct statement, but you won’t be making more money betting parlays, instead you should be betting more on straight bets.

DU: Anything else you would like to add?

Fezzik: Advantage players like me have different perspective on how to bet sports. If a person is wagering for recreational purposes, betting their own money and having fun doing what they want to do, that’s all good.

DU: Great insights, I appreciate it.

Fezzik: Thanks, Doug it’s been fun.

Beers with Red Wydley

We’re sitting here at Alice Cooper’s restaurant in downtown Phoenix with professional gambler and sometimes writer Red Wydley. Red (not his real name) lives in Nevada and has been a long time gambler who has managed to survive as bettor and golf hustler for years and he was in Phoenix area playing golf with “friends” and agreed to sit down with me and share his thoughts about the NBA and upcoming playoffs.

3Daily Winners: What were your general impressions of the NBA season and did you have successful season wagering?

Red Wydley: I thought the season was better than in the last few years, there were more watch-able games and matchups that were at least viewable. I don’t watch a ton of NBA games; I more follow boxscores and patterns of teams play. That’s not to say I don’t watch any games, mostly the last 15 or so to see who looks right for the playoffs. I won betting the NBA, but what the hell, I should, that’s how I make money to live.

3DW: The NBA is the last bastion in professional sports where the best teams win the championship, not the hottest at the time. Recent examples in other sports are St. Louis and Philadelphia in baseball and the New York Giants and almost Arizona in football. With how this works in the NBA, that takes away a lot of the drama and who doesn’t think the NBA Finals will have the Lakers, Cleveland or Boston, what do you think?

Red: I think that was a really long question. You’re probably right, but what’s wrong with that? If those are the three best teams, fine. In the other sports, star players aren’t as important as the NBA. The best teams have the best players, if the best player doesn’t play his best, than his team will lose, like what happened with Kobe (Bryant) in the finals last year. The other sports have more players that are dependent on one another for success. You mention the Cardinals winning the World Series, who remembers who won the MVP? The Giants got confidence from losing to New England and later beat them in the Super Bowl, that doesn’t happen in the NBA.

3DW: The big story as the playoffs start is the report that Kevin Garnett might not play at all, what does that do to Boston’s chances of repeating?

Red: Kills them. Garnett is the heart and soul of the Celtics, but not there most clutch player. Almost every NBA champion has had two superstars and third player who made generous contributions. Paul Pierce is ruthless at crunch time and Ray Allen hits big shots all the time. Garnett is a contributor and defensive leader, not the guy. Think of him a Ray Lewis of the Ravens. You can play great defense, but somebody has to score. Who takes Garnett’s place, Marbury? (Laughing out loud) By the way nice shirt, how did your wife let you out of the house?

3DW: I actually like it, moving ahead, Chicago won 12 of last 16, can they upset Boston?

Red: Oh my god no. The Bulls made a run to make the playoffs with (Derrick) Rose and good players at guard and wing spots. Garnett’s absence gives the Bulls a chance to win one game, two if they are really lucky. Rajon Rondo is quicker than any Bulls guard and I expect Doc Rivers to punch the ball inside to (Kendrick) Perkins and (Leon) Powe, whose going to stop them, Joakim Noah? Maybe with his dad’s tennis racket. Most people forget how well the Celtics shoot the three-ball. Five games tops.

3DW: Detroit was one of the biggest disappoints in the NBA this season, can this aging team even win a game, or is Cleveland a best bet in sweep.

Red: The Pistons should win a game, as long as it’s a best of nine. I’ve watched the Pistons play four times the last month and this is a team that needs to be blown up like Phoenix. Detroit plays like they could care less and they lack cohesiveness, with a crummy mix of players. If Rasheed Wallace and Richard Hamilton have a terrific game together, maybe the Pistons take one; I don’t even see that happening.

3DW: Orlando may have been the best bet in the NBA (50-32 ATS), but they closed with 4-5 record, how do you see series with Philadelphia and can they beat Celtics?

Red: The Magic played real bored, even when they were fighting for second seed in April. The playoffs should energize them, but Orlando will have tougher time with Sixers than most think. Philadelphia is quicker than Orlando, even with lead-footed Andre Miller playing. I’ll take the Magic in six with closer games than people will expect. I give Orlando a chance to knock off Boston without Garnett, though I’d rather make that bet with your money than mine.

3DW: I’ve read and seen coach Jerry Sloan talk about his Utah club that has played with less enthusiasm than Lindsey Lohan after breaking up with gal-pal Samantha Ronson, losing seven of nine. Any reason to think Utah wins a game.

Red: Do you want me to see if I can book you as warm-up for Carrot Top? It might be time for Sloan to turn coaching reins over to somebody else. I think they have given up like 112 points (113.1) a game in their last 10 except for playing the Clips and that doesn’t count anyways. Lakers fans will only see the Jazz twice in the playoffs.

3DW: San Antonio and Dallas both showed heart to finish the season, setting up Texas 3vs6 showdown. This series is always about the visitor, what happens?

Red: I’m looking forward to this series. Reminds me of Ali-Frazier’s third fight. Two teams past their prime, but showing courage to the end. San Antonio will benefit from having three, two days of rest if the series goes at least six games. I like the way Dallas is playing right now and the home court means nothing in this series, betting Cuban’s in seven.

3DW: You mention the breaks between games; does it bother you as much as it bothers me?

Red: Hate it, hate it, hate it. I understand the whole TV revenue aspect, but the first round goes on for what seems a month! When I was kid, I remember going out to eat on Mother’s Day and she was pissed because my dad wanted to get home to watch Game 7 of the Finals between Milwaukee in Boston. It was the last game of the whole deal, which today is about the first or second game of the second round, ridiculous.

3DW: I concur. Do you think New Orleans can upset Denver?

Red: I know where you are going with this. If New Orleans was 100 percent healthy, I’d seriously have to consider it, since George Karl has proven to be a sap of the playoff coach. I’ve made enough money to stay at the Four Seasons for a month, betting against him in the playoffs. He does a lousy job making adjustments, but this team is different as Chauncey Billups brought winning attitude and they have the right mix of players with Carmelo, J.R. Smith and (Chris) Anderson adding more flexibility. I can see where people would like the Hornets as they are really made for playoff basketball, just not this year.

3DW: In the 4vs5 series, there are intriguing potential individual matchups. Dwayne Wade vs Joe Johnson and Yao Ming vs Greg Oden, what do you see occurring?

Red: You’re joking right? Am I on new episode of Punk’d? Johnson is a good NBA player, but not even in the same class as Wade. If Johnson has to guard Wade without help, he’d wish he never left Phoenix. I only saw Portland play three times and Oden missed each game. I spoke to one of my contacts earlier and asked him about this specific matchup and he confided that Oden will probably only guard Ming about a third of the time with (Joe) Przybilla and (LaMarcus) Aldridge all splitting time. As far as series, have to do more home work, preferring Blazers and Heat looking at your ugly shirt.

3DW: OK, quick questions needing quick answers. Biggest chance for first round upset?

Red: Dallas

3DW: The East Finals has …?

Red: Cleveland and, and Orlando?

3DW: Notice the hesitation. The West Finals has?

Red: You get paid to observe people? Lakers and Denver.

3DW: The best bet to make on NBA champion?

Red: The Lakers.

3DW: Why?

Red: Do you want quick answers or not? Since being embarrassed at Boston in Game Six of the Finals, the Lakers have only had one mission, get tougher and finish. Andrew Bynum will help, Kobe wants ring without Shaq and Phil (Jackson) wants to go down as the greatest NBA coach ever. Your turn to buy the beer.

3DW: Thanks for the time and the beer and good luck with golf tomorrow.

Red: Your welcome, god that is an ugly shirt, what’s that tag say –Rejected by Goodwill.