Chippewas Big Favorite in MAC Title Tilt

All season long, Central Michigan (10-2, 9-2 ATS) has gone about their business in a diligent manner. Picked to win the Mid-American Conference for the third time in four years, often other teams would have fallen under the weight of expectations, not this bunch. The Chippewas were 8-0 and 6-2 ATS in conference action and upset Michigan State and gave Arizona a competitive game, covering the spread at Tucson in the season opener. All along this journey, Dan LeFevour has proven to a special college quarterback and is now MAC’s all-time leader in passing yards, breaking quarterback Byron Leftwich’s record and is now third all-time on the NCAA yardage list. Central Michigan’s return to prominence after 8-5 season coincided with defense coming together. The Chippewas are 18-10-1 against the spread as conference favorites the last five seasons.

Ohio U. tumbled Temple from the ranks of the unbeaten in the MAC and captured the East Division title 35-17, ending the Owls nine-game winning streak. Quarterback Theo Scott threw three touchdowns and ran for two more, setting up 2006 rematch for conference championship. The Bobcats (9-3, 7-4 ATS) offense has clicked the last few weeks, averaging 33.3 points per game, after scoring 19.5 PPG against lesser MAC competition in four prior games. Ohio U. arrives in Detroit with four-game winning streak and is 18-8 ATS off one or more wins the last five years.

Central Michigan finished first in the conference in points allowed at 17.8 and second in total defense at 331 yards per game surrendered. Defensive end Frank Zombo said “It hurt last year to be ranked near the bottom in team defense, - he added, “That’s why we missed the championship game, and we had to watch it on TV. That’s what motivated us in the offseason. We didn’t want to be on our couches watching the game again.”

The Chippewas may have a decided edge over Ohio U. if they get into the red zone. Central Michigan held opponents to a 73 percent scoring rate inside the 20-yard line, while the Bobcats ranks 106th in red zone scoring, and beggarly 114th in red zone touchdown percentage.

Sportsbook.com has Ohio U. as a 13-point underdog at Ford Field, with total of 53. The Bobcats realize the hill they have to climb, but have a much improved secondary since the last time these teams met and have forced FBS-best 35 turnovers this season.

“You want to be the best, then you have to beat the best,” senior WR Taylor Price said. “We get that chance.”

Creating turnovers will be huge for the Ohio since they are 8-1 ATS if they have the opponent commit at least two miscues. Oddmakers are setting a scoring pace CMU signal caller Dan LeFevour is very comfortable at, with 9-2 ATS record when the total is between 49.5 and 56.

Central Michigan has defeated Ohio three consecutive times (2-0-1 ATS), including 31-28 at Athens, OH last year and in MAC Championship 31-10 three years ago.

ESPN2 has the MAC title game at 8:00 Eastern.

Time for a MAC Attack

For weekday college football, it’s been all Mid-American Conference all the time this month and this continues on Hump Day with a two more tilts. Central Michigan is trying to win the league championship for a third time in four years and takes another step closer with a victory over Ball State. Miami-O tries to end dismal season on a positive, hosting Buffalo in the other MAC matchup.

Central Michigan at Ball State 8:00E ESPN2

The Chippewas held serve in blowout win over Toledo 56-28 last week and will try to do the same at Ball State. Central Michigan (8-2, 7-2 ATS) forced five turnovers and quarterback Dan LeFevour threw for 341 yards showing exactly why they are unbeaten (5-1 ATS) in conference play. The Chippewas have big game with Northern Illinois next and are 9-1 ATS before they play them.

Ball State (1-9, 5-4 ATS) just finished with the Huskies, losing 26-20 and is on short week for final home game. The Cardinals are 12-2 ATS in home games having lost two out of their last three games.

It’s been a long season for the Cardinals and with Central Michigan averaging 33.1 points per game, the Ball State is going to have to step up as the Cardinals are 24-49 ATS when they allow 28 or more points since 1992.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Chippewas favored by -15 and the home team is 1-4 ATS in last five meetings; however Ball State is 5-2 ATS in last contest at Scheumann Stadium.

Buffalo at Miami-O 6:00E ESPNU

The whole televised deal hasn’t worked out for Buffalo (3-7, 4-6 ATS), losing last two games by on total of four points on the world wide leader’s family of networks. The Bulls offense moves the ball, but doesn’t always finish drives properly; accounting for the fact they average 23.8 points per game against opponents that have allowed 26.1.

Miami-O (1-10, 5-6 ATS) has had forgettable season and will try and send seniors out with one last blast of glory. The RedHawks problems are easily definable, -23 turnover margin. About the only positive is redshirt freshman QB Zac Dysert’s play. He too has thrown enough interceptions that a meager Miami defense cannot overcome. They are 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons.

Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite and is 11-2 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse.

Central Michigan hosts Toledo

The Chippewas will attempt to keep perfect MAC record (5-0) intact hosting Toledo. The 31-10 loss to Boston College is excusable; being a difficult place to play and it was Central Michigan’s third straight road game. This game matters as the last thing Central Michigan (7-2, SU&ATS) needs is a loss with Northern Illinois nipping at their heels and these two teams facing off in 16 days.

Most coaches have a good sense of what their team needs and CMU head coach Butch Jones felt the extra few days off was a benefit to his squad.

“It was a good break … we were one of the teams in the country who have gone nine straight weeks without a break,” Jones said. “There were bumps and bruises and just the wear and tear of the week-in and week-out stress of playing football, plus six of our nine games were on the road. Four of our five games in October were on the road.”

Quarterback Dan LeFevour will look to get offense back on track for Central Michigan. The Chippewas are believed to have a rather potent offense, yet a closer look reveals a slightly different story. Nothing wrong with averaging 30.6 points per game, however their opponents allow 29.1 PPG. The offense averages 390.8 yards per game, fourth in the MAC, facing opposing teams that concede 380 YPG, hardly overwhelming. The key number for Central Mich. is 28, since they are 8-1 ATS when they cross that point total.

The Chippewas and LeFevour are averaging 50.7 PPG at Kelly-Shorts Stadium and take on leaky Toledo defense being burned for 37.4 points an outing. The Rockets (4-5 SU&ATS) demise from the elite in the MAC has been on this side of the ball and no answers have been forthcoming. If Toledo faces a running team, they easily accomplish 4.9 yards per carry for over 175 YPG and if the opponent passes, plenty of holes in the secondary to throw for almost 250 YPG. The noise you hear is the Chippewas offensive players rubbing their hands together waiting to attack Rockets defense and take on Toledo who is 5-12 ATS as road underdog.

Toledo is built to pass and they really need senior Aaron Opelt throwing the pigskin after missing 2 ½ games with injured wing. He was ineffective in the 31-24 loss as five-point favorites to Miami-O and the hope is the extra time off has healed his shoulder. The Rockets are 6-1 ATS off a spread loss.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Central Michigan as 17.5-point favorites with the total of 61. The best way to attack the Chippewas is running the ball between the tackles like Buffalo did for 223 yards, which opens up the passing game and slows down their pass rush. Toledo is capable of putting up decent running numbers and is 10-1 ATS off a SU and ATS loss vs. opponent off a 10-point or more defeat.

The Chippewas have a good history of coming back after solid loss and are 22-10 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game and 6-0 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards.

ESPN2 has the MAC West encounter at 8 Eastern, with Toledo is 1-4 SU and ATS vs. Central Michigan, yet offers hope with 15-8-1 ATS record in November.

Motor City Bowl Preview

Central Michigan didn’t end up playing in the MAC Championship, however still landed in the Motor City Bowl for the third straight year. A Chippewas defense that permitted 30.7 points per game, prevented them from repeating as conference champs again. The Central Michigan offense is led by quarterback Dan LeFevour, one of the top dual threat signal callers in the country. The Chips are 25-12 ATS since LeFevour’s arrival.

After a struggling start, Florida Atlantic got hot winning five of last six (4-2 ATS). Quarterback Rusty Smith finally found a groove the Owls took off. Florida Atlantic received this invitation because the Big Ten didn’t have enough qualifying teams to filter down to this bowl tie-in. The Owls strength is passing the ball, doing so for 251 yards per game. They should be able to do this with relative ease, since Central Michigan is next to last in the country in allowing 285.7 yards per game.

Why to Watch and Wager

A high scoring game won’t bother FAU, who is 12-3 ATS scoring 28 or more points. The Owls have lost starters due to suspensions meaning replacements have to step up. Smith was only sacked 12 times all season and should have time to make all the throws and Florida Atlantic is 7-0 ATS vs. awful passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 62 percent or worse.

The Owls haven’t seen as versatile a performer under center since facing Colt McCoy in the opener. LeFevour can make all the throws and is excellent open field runner. Central Michigan is not above taking gifts even after Christmas, with FAU -15 in turnover margin on the season, the Chippewas should take advantage if opportunities arise. CMU is 19-9 ATS in games played on turf over the last three seasons. Because this is a lackluster matchup, take the Over on empty seats in this one.

Bookmaker.com Line – Central Michigan -7, 68