What happens Thursday night in tourney?

Top seeds Kansas and Kentucky don’t figure to have a lot or work on their hands in their opening games and No.3 seeds New Mexico and Georgetown are expected to move on and play on Saturday, but what about the other four games. This is where close contests are not only presumed, but upsets are thought to be a real possibility. Bring the shovel and start digging.

Are six seeds secure?

Marquette and Tennessee will both wear the favorite’s hat, but is it a snug fit or one that could be blown off under uncertain conditions. The Golden Eagles (22-11, 17-10 ATS) have won six of the last eight games, however have had issues with teams that prefer to play at fast pace. In three games in this stretch, the height-challenged Marquette squad has surrendered 50 percent or more in defensive field goal percentage to Seton Hall, Villanova and Georgetown.

In comes Washington, on a serious roll (7-0-, 6-1 ATS) as Pac-10 postseason champs. The Huskies average 79.8 points per game and like to “floor it” on offense. Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) has covered four of their last five NCAA tournament games and No.11 seeds that that average over 73 points a game are prime material to pull first round upsets. Washington is receiving 1.5-points at Bookmaker.com with total of 143, yet keep in mind the former Warriors from Milwaukee are 7-0 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

Prior to SEC semi-final contest, Tennessee (25-8, 13-17 ATS) had won five in a row and seven of eight and looking like a team on the come. The Volunteers brutally grotesque loss to Kentucky by 29-point evidently has left an impression against Mountain West team that won conference tournament on the road literally, with smallish spread.

Tennessee has covered their last four outings off a spread loss, however are only 3-7-1 ATS in Big Dance tournament games. The Vols play much better from the lead, since they shoot only 31.3 percent from three-point land.

San Diego State (25-8, 18-13 ATS) is not terribly tall, yet super aggressive on the offensive boards, accounting for +7 rebound margin. Like Tennessee, the Aztecs playing outstanding defense (40.5 vs. 39.4 for Vols) and they convert on 47.7 percent of shot attempts. S.D. State stifled UNLV on their own floor in MWC title tilt, holding them to 45 points on 32.7 percent accuracy and they are 22-9 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.
Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite, with only three covers the last 10 times they were the preferred choice.

8 vs. 9 or 9 vs. 8 who knows

In the last 11 tournaments, the lower seed has held a slight edge with 23-21 SU record and 23-19-2 ATS mark. That would give Northern Iowa (28-4, 21-10 ATS) a narrow margin in theory and they are one-point dogs to UNLV.

The Panthers are balanced and go 10 deep and don’t beat themselves. Northern Iowa is never in a hurry offensively, with C Jordan Eglseder and F Adam Koch the inside presence and bombers like Ali Farokhmanesh to do the scoring. UNI also can tie-up teams up on defense, holding them to 54.3 points per game (40.3 percent) and are willing to do the work for the entire shot clock if necessary. This patient club is 8-2 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season.

UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS) had their six game winning streak snapped in the MWC finals. The Rebels have a stellar backcourt with Tre’Von Willis and Oscar Bellfield; however do not have a starter more than 6’8 to go against Northern Iowa’s big guys. UNLV is 15-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 under coach Lon Kruger the last three seasons, which gives this the feel of last basket wins conflict.

The other 8 vs. 9 matchup is more about survival than just being close encounter. Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) has wallowed losing five of six. Al-Farouq Amino is their most productive offensive weapon and the Demon Deacons do a descent job working the glass, but lack consistent scoring from the guard spots. Wake is just 1-10 ATS in previous NCAA tournament tilts.

Texas (24-9, 11-18 ATS) fell like housing values, going from No.1 in the country to an eighth seed in the course of the season, an unprecedented event. As the year has worn on, its crystal clear this team lacks chemistry, focus and dreadful point guard play exacerbates the situation. Texas is a five point favorite for whatever reason and is 3-11 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or contests have been played this season. Anybody have a coin?

Halloween Adventure

Nothing spooky or scary about today’s picks. The Top Trend is in the Big 12 and involves a team that doesn’t play well against good defensive teams. The Best System out there is 88.5 percent and on an unlikely team. The Free Play is from the ACC, from a LCC member who is 12-3 in CFB the last two weeks. Good Luck

NEW Feature: New Poll Question at the bottom of page.

What I thought yesterday – I knew I could count on Bill Stewart of West Virginia to lose last night. He’s becoming one of my favorite play against coaches in college football.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON A home team off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season. Teams like San Diego State are 23-3 ATS in this exact spot.

Free Football Trend-2) The Baylor Bears are 1-11 ATS in home games versus excellent defensive teams allowing 4.25 or fewer yards per play.

Free Football Pick -3) Bill of the Left Coast Connection has Georgia Tech running to a spread cover.

Paul Buck Guaranteed CFB Winner Saturday! Tired of losing, join in on the winning parade.

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Taking Home the Money College Basketball Totals

For many sports bettors, college basketball totals take on Forrest Gump-ish quality, as they are like a box of chocolates, but after studying all the sides most days, it’s hard to choose which games to play. Many sports bettors are more comfortable staying within the realm of what they know, which seldom includes college basketball totals.

Oddsmakers also are not as comfortable putting out totals on these games, as you will notice they usually arrive mid-morning on the day of the games, after releasing the side action in the late afternoon the day before. There is a good reason for this; “sharps” know the best value in college basketball wagering is on totals, because that is where the most potential errors can occur, especially on deep, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday cards. Those setting the numbers want to limit their exposure to these players, reducing the time they can cherry pick miscues, thus protecting themselves as best they.

How can somebody be successful betting college totals, you have to be ready to stay away from the glimmer of the big conferences, focus your attention on the smaller leagues, where these types of teams are more likely to pop up and oddsmakers pay lesser attention to, since they are wagered on accordingly. Here is a look at some of the very best teams every college basketball bettor should be looking at. (The focus will be on teams that have played more than half the games with a posted total)

For those who prefer to play Over the total, Ohio U (8-6, 6-5 ATS) is about as good as you could want with 7-2-1 mark. It’s a fairly remarkable team without much size or a bench, playing primarily in a league not known for scoring, yet is climbing over the total. Most of their winning numbers have come out of MAC play, thus it is worth watching to notice if the Bobcats can keep on delivering in conference action.

The Manhattan Jaspers (9-7, 5-5 ATS) out of the MAAC are 7-2 OVER, after winning just 12 games last season. It appears oddsmakers have been slow to adjust, since Manhattan has been the talk of the conference as an immensely improved team. What impresses people is how hard they play and even in defeat, they keep playing the whole 40 minutes, giving total players a chance. Off a loss the Jaspers are 4-1 Over.

LaSalle (8-6, 4-4-1 ATS) is part of the “Big 5” universities in Philadelphia area and has been a moneymaker for those watching totals with 7-2 mark, favoring the higher numbers. The Explorers defense is run of the mill, allowing 69.2 points per game on 42.4 percent. Offensively they do a good job, in scoring 72.5 points per game and averaging better than 10 offensive rebounds a contest, which helps push them Over the total. Like Manhattan, LaSalle has been a solid play off a loss at 4-0 Over, scoring 77 PPG.

One team that is no stranger to total players is Long Beach State. The 49ers (9-7, 10-6 ATS) have changed coaches from their 90+ point days, yet are still leaping over numbers 75 percent of the time with a 9-3 Over mark. L.B. State still moves the ball up and down the floor in averaging 72. 4 points an outing, but where they really are a good play is the utter of lack defense they don’t play, particularly on the road where they give up 75.8 PPG. When the 49ers travel to a team that has even a semblance of offense, the Over has to be the play.

On the other end of the spectrum is the dark side, where supposedly only those in the know play totals on the Under. Handicappers and linemakers have been selling us for years about “squares” only being on the Over and while some validity still holds true to that belief, the marketplace is far more knowledgeable, with greater access to information, making that point less trustworthy then in the past.

Any basketball bettor knows Utah State (15-1, 7-4 ATS) is a perennial player in the WAC title chase and makes frequent visits to the Top 25. The Aggies play stingy defense (59.6 PPG) and take their time on offense under coach Stew Morrill, always looking for a high percentage shot. Utah State’s effective controlled style, bothers opposing teams and the Aggies at 9-2 UNDER is not a shocker for interested bettors.

San Diego is know for its beautiful year round climate, seldom too hot or too cold and this basketball season is known for having two schools that favor one side of the totals action. San Diego State returned five starters and the results have been even better than expected with 12-3 mark (8-4 ATS). This veteran Aztec club does not have a player taller than 6’8, nonetheless, they can bang in the paint with taller opponents and play solid help-position defense that forces teams to connect from the perimeter. Opposing squads are only at 40.9 percent against coach Steve Fisher’s team, scoring 55.7 PPG. The Aztecs are a cash-machine 8-2 UNDER.

Not far away is the San Diego University campus and the Toreros are right in the same area as their counterparts at 11-3 UNDER. San Diego (10-7, 8-6 ATS) was believed to be a contender in the West Coast Conference, but they lost three key components in all-conference guard Brandon Johnson (for the season), plus Trumaine Johnson and De'Jon Jackson have only recently returned. The offense really suffered without this trio, with San Diego starting 4-6. With the latter Johnson back with Jackson, all-WCC performer Gyno Pomare has stepped up his scoring and the Toreros offense is a threat again. Their defense still playing well, suggesting the Under’s should keep on coming.

Following and playing totals does take time and effort, yet knowing where to start with the correct teams can be profitable right from the outset.