Tuesday's bids earned for Big Dance

A trio of invites will be doled out on Tuesday evening for three more conference championships. All three winners are guaranteed spots, however those on the bubble have a rooting interesting in Butler winning, since a Wright State upset in the Horizon League means one fewer spot for them, with the Bulldogs already assured of being invited to the party. Here are the three wagering previews.

Horizon League Championship 9:00E ESPN

Regular season champion Butler (27-4, 12-19 ATS) was dumped in last year Horizon championship game by Cleveland State and went on to lose to LSU in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs are focused on not seeing history repeat itself.

Butler has yet to lose in league play with 19-0 record (7-12 ATS) and wants to close the deal. “It’s a little bit of unfinished business - you feel like that when you get all that way and then you don’t finish the deal,” Bulldogs forward Matt Howard said. “It’s the same thing this year. We’re focused, we want to win. We don’t feel comfortable with where we are.” The Bulldogs have won 19 in a row, but are 7-14 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season.

Wright State (20-11, 11-15-3 ATS) ended up being the second place team in the Horizon with 12-6 regular season mark. The Blue Raiders demolished Detroit 69-50 in their only game in this tournament. Wright State has a strong backcourt with Vaughn Duggins and Todd Brown averaging over 27 points per game, however they have lost six straight to Butler (2-4 ATS).
Butler is a seven-point favorite at Hinkle Fieldhouse according to Bookmaker.com and they are 14-0 SU (5-9 ATS) in their own building this season. Wright State is 3-11 ATS in road lined games this season; however they are 9-0 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.

Sun Belt Championship 7:00E ESPN2

A number of conference tournaments have gone according to form and the Sun Belt is another with the top two seeds matching up. Troy (20-11, 13-14-1 ATS) is the No.1 seed and played like it last night winning 54-48, being a surprising underdog five-point underdog to No. 4 Western Kentucky. The Trojans have four players averaging double digits led by Brandon Hazzard’s 16.6 points per game. Troy averages 75.5 points a contest and is 5-0-1 ATS in last six outings.

North Texas (23-8, 16-7-1 ATS) can also change the numbers on the scoreboard quickly, totaling 74.5 PPG and they have four players of their own that average 10 or more points a contest. The Mean Green are 14-6 ATS against conference foes and are 11-6 and 9-5-1 ATS away from Denton.

North Texas won and covered at Troy 75-72 as 5.5-point underdogs back in January, however the teams have split four games the last couple of years. Both squads have winning spread records at neutral site locations, with the Mean Green exceptional at 17-5 ATS and oddsmakers have this going to the wire at a Pick.

Summit League Championship 9:00E ESPN2

The third championship conflict of the night also features a 1 vs. 2 matchup. Regular season champ Oakland (25-8, 5-8 ATS) rolls into the title game on a 10-game winning streak, having won and covered both Summit tourney games. The Golden Grizzlies have four different players that are capable scorers, each scoring 10 or more points, however their best player is center Keith Benson, averaging 17.3 PPG and 10.3 rebounds. Guard Johnathon Jones hands out 6.4 assists per game, while averaging over 12 PPG. Oakland is 12-7 SU away from home.

No.2 IUPUI (24-9, 8-6 ATS) has three individuals that score as well as any trio in the country. Robert Glenn, Alex Young and Leroy Nobles average 51.3 points a contest, with each providing a different skill that limits what opposing teams can do to shutdown at least one of them off. The Jaguars have a six game winning streak themselves and are 13-7 SU on the road.

These teams split a pair of games in 2010 and Oakland holds the all-time edge 19-14. Oakland made the tournament in 2005 and has lost twice in the Summit championship game, including last year. IUPUI won the tournament in 2003 and has also lost two times in the league title tilt. The opening number on this matchup is a Pick.

GMAC Bowl Preview

Quick, without looking it up, name the four bowl matchups that pitted two conference champions against one another. If you guessed Rose, Fiesta, BCS and the GMAC, advance to next page to collect your prize. (Sorry not really) Actually this bowl is full of surprises, some good and some not so good.

The GMAC Bowl has produced the most lopsided games of any bowls in recent years, as favorites are on an incredible 7-0 SU and ATS run, winning by an average margin of 30.3 points per game, despite what looked like occasionally fairly competitive games.

MAC champion Central Michigan (11-2, 8-3-1 ATS) hopes that trend continues as the favorite. The 2009 Chippewas were dominant as evidenced by the 33.2-to-17.2 scoring differential. CMU is led by Dan LeFevour, the greatest player in MAC history. Find that last statement too strong, not when you consider these numbers - 12,510 passing career yards, 101 passing touchdowns, running for almost 3,000 yards (2,936) and personally crossing the goal line 46 times. Most importantly, Central Michigan has won the league title in three of the four seasons LeFevour has been on the Mt. Pleasant campus. How important was he to the program, in the prior seven seasons the Chippewas were 26-51.

Like CMU, Troy (Sun Belt champion) won their conference for the third time in four years and comes in with a 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS mark. The Trojans quarterback fortunes changed for the better last year, when transfer Levi Brown was called upon due to injury and ineffectiveness of the two signal callers ahead of him and all he has done is lead Troy to back to back outright conference crowns.

At first glance, Central Michigan falling from a four-point favorite to 2.5 at Sportsbook.com doesn’t seem to hold water. Among Troy’s losses is one at Bowling Green 31-14 in the season opener, whom the Chippewas whipped 24-10 as nine-point road favorites later in the season. By the same token can any MAC team be taken seriously in a bowl game having lost all nine matchups the last two years (0-8-1 ATS)? In search of a positive, when the MAC faces another non-BCS conference in a bowl game, the favorite is 13-1-1 ATS.

Central Michigan players are dealing with a coach leaving as Butch Jones continues taking Brian Kelly leftovers (Kelly was at CMU) and moved on to Cincinnati. That leaves Steve Stripling as the interim head coach and lame ducks are 1-2 this bowl season (though Florida State situation was different). Don’t look for this to be a big deal, as this senior class went thru this as freshmen and they are moving on themselves and are going to be more interested in winning than worrying about a coach leaving. The Chips are 6-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons, winning by more than 10 points per game.

The Troy defensive front seven is going to have to be effective in containing LeFevour since its secondary is below average. The Trojans are athletic enough with DE Cameron Sheffield and LB Boris (where’s Natasha?) Lee to keep CMU quarterback from roaming around. Brown will have to outplay LeFevour and he should have time to pass since Central Michigan doesn’t generate much of pass rush. Troy often feeds on momentum and is 8-0 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games.

The Trojans have played in three prior bowl games with 1-2 SU and ATS, including 3-0 going OVER the total. CMU is 1-4 all-time as a bowler and is 2-1 ATS.

With the total at 63 consider this, Troy is 9-1 OVER as an underdog and Central Michigan is 6-0 UNDER away from home after one or more consecutive straight up wins this season. ESPN has the coverage starting at 7 Eastern.

3DW Line – Central Michigan by 7

Back for Thursday

After Monday’s poor showing, we came back Tuesday with 3-0 day and look to keep building on that occurrence. No great systems today (80 percent or higher), nonetheless one that is very solid in college hoops at 76 percent. The Top Trend looks in on an ACC team tonight. Good Luck

What I thought today – Really sad about Chris Henry. He was always in trouble for one thing or another from his days at West Virginia and it turns out to be just another tragic story.

I keep hearing sports bettors are pounding the Colts, however in the circles I’m traveling everyone is on Jacksonville. Interesting to note several sportsbooks do not want to let go of Indy at -3 and I’m seeing and hearing -125 or -130 on them, which tells me they don’t want Jacksonville at +3.5.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against a home team like Troy, who is an offensive team scoring 76 or more points a game, against a defensive team allowing 63-67 PPG, after allowing 90 points or more. Over the last five years this system is 38-12 ATS.

Free Basketball Trend-2) N.C. State is 12-3 ATS after playing a game as favorite over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Slick Rick like many so-called sharp bettors has Jacksonville tonight.

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

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Trojans favored to cover in Sun Belt showdown

In the Sun Belt Conference, Troy was the expected to dominate, picked by every known preseason magazine in the country to do so. Their opening game 31-14 pasting to an ordinary MAC Bowling Green team, spoke of overconfidence and self indulgence. That was followed by being crushed by the top team in the land Florida 56-6 and a picture that looked so rosy in August, was starting to fade like flowers uncovered from an overnight frost.

Troy (2-2 SU&ATS) has gotten back on track with wins over a UAB and a 30-27 clutch effort at Arkansas State. The Trojans can make their slow start be a forgotten memory with a win against a very good SBC bunch from Middle Tennessee State.

The Blue Raiders (3-1 ATS) are off to their best start in eight seasons at 3-1 and could be the team to beat in the Sun Belt with a win at Troy. Quarterback Dwight Dasher has run the Mid. Tenn. State offense expertly in the first four games, averaging 28.5 points per game and over 400 yards total offense. This will be the Blue Raiders third consecutive road game after knocking off North Texas 37-21 as five point favorites and they are 13-5 ATS of a win.

Senior quarterback Levi Brown has offense flowing again for Troy, averaging 28.5 points the last two games. The defensive front is back to pressuring the opposing quarterback with six sacks and 26 quarterback hurries in four games. The Trojans have been turnover –prone thus far, with 10 miscues already, however are 7-0 ATS after committing three or more turnovers.

Bookmaker.com opened Troy as four-point favorites and the public has taken the most recognizable name from the Sun Belt and made them to six-point choice. It is understandable since the Trojans have either won or tied for the last four SBC crowns and if offense starts to click, they are 21-6 ATS when they score 28 or more points.

Mid. Tenn. State is a legitimate club; they won at Maryland 32-31 as more than a touchdown underdog and mauled Memphis 31-14. If Troy continues to be in a giving mood, the Blue Raiders will be ready; having forced 13 turnovers this season and they are 12-3 ATS in the month of October.

This Sun Belt matchup is known as the “World’s Largest Toga Party” and will be viewable on ESPN2 starting at 8 Eastern. Keep in mind the underdog is 1-6 ATS.