Monday April 12, 2010

Slipped a little on Saturday with 1-2 day and come back with a perfect trend involving an NBA game with two hot clubs. Kyle of the LCC was 15-8, +9.2 units in MLB action last week and gives his Top Play for Monday. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- Absolutely awesome to see Phil Mickelson win The Masters.

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Free Basketball System -1) See variety of system listed below.

Free Basketball Trend -2) This is an intriguing angle –Orlando is 11-0 ATS after a win by six points or less this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Kyle goes after baseball with diligence right from opening day and likes Atlanta to ruin San Diego’s home opener.

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Tiger Woods betting favorite at The Masters

This past calendar year, the NFL, college football and college basketball have posted their best TV ratings in years. This has not been the case with the PGA Tour, down 15-20 percent in 2010 viewership. That all changes starting Thursday on ESPN and CBS pray’s it lasts deep into the weekend.

A fellow named Tiger Woods has been in the news since Thanksgiving for a lifestyle that brought unwanted attention to him. While he normally doesn’t play in many tournaments to start the year, Woods has been involved in many well-documented activities to alter his life and he hopes to be involved with his children and hopefully his wife looking ahead.

Tiger was well-known in the sporting world and most people that had no interest in golf were at least familiar with him as the best golfer in the world. That for now at least has changed.
Everyone knows about his escapades and he will be doing something that would be stupendous even for Tiger, winning the Masters with no prior tournament exposure since the end of last season.

Golf wagering is poised to see unprecedented numbers according to sources both off-shore and on the Las Vegas Strip. A good friend of yours truly who works at a sportsbook at the south end of the Strip said he’s “expecting record golf handle” for this Masters. He shared with me that the number of wagers placed is almost 40 percent higher than the 2009 Masters and that dollar volume was up nearly 30 percent as of this past Sunday evening.

Woods is a +350 favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com, well ahead of the second choice Phil Mickelson at +1000. I spoke to Chip Stewart, a professional gambler from Nevada, about what he thought of the odds for Woods to win.

“Tiger’s talent is immense, but to just walk out onto Augusta National and win with no prior playing pressure, that would even be a stretch even for him. Off the top that would be like Tim Lincecum throwing a complete game two-hit shutout with no spring training, just playing catch with friends in his first start of the year.”

Stewart went on to say we would play props, mostly against Woods. “I’d be amazed if he finished in the Top 10. He’s going to have to earn back his invincibility against the Tour. More than one tour player views him as just another “hound” that got caught and will not be above gamesmanship to see how Tiger reacts.”

Among the most disappointing players that have played this season is Mickelson, who wasted a perfect opportunity to be the best player in the world. Maybe he needs a foil like Woods to motivate him. Mickelson has one Top 10 finish (8th at AT&T Pebble Beach) in seven starts and has broke 70 once in last eight rounds.

Players garnering more of the attention are Ernie Els, Andy Kim and Camilo Villegas.

Els is No.1 on the money list, thanks to wins at the WCG at Doral and Arnold Palmer Invitational, along with three other Top 12 finishes. Els is healthier than he’s been in years and admits to attitude change, after “stinking it up” as he put it the last couple of years. Els is +1200 at the moment.

Kim has regained his touch and is a noted “hot” player who can stay in the zone for extended period. His last three starts are a second, 22nd and winner last week at the Shell Houston Open. Kim is 21st in driving distance on the tour and 14th in birdies. He’s an intriguing +2000.

Villegas started the year white hot, finishing 3rd and 8th in opening starts before winning the Honda Classic. He followed that up with 16th place finish at the WCG and took a few weeks off from the tour and missed the cut at Bay Hill. Maybe he will be recharged and he’s got the game to be a factor, ranking third in birdies and sixth in driving distance at 297.7 yards. Villegas is +2500 to win.

Others receiving hits are familiar names across the golf world if not necessarily in the United States. Padraig Harrington (+1500), Lee Westwood (+2000) and Retief Goosen (+2000) are the usual suspects whose names come up when the Majors start.

For those that follow the PGA Tour more regularly, Jim Furyk (+2500) has the grinder mentality needed to play four days of pressure-packed golf and won the Transition Championship three weeks ago and has five rounds in the 60’s out of previous eight.

Steve Stricker is second on the money list, with his career rejuvenation. The 43-year old has four Top 10’s, with a win at the Northern Trust and can get white hot with the flat stick.
If Tiger is not as sharp as many experts believe, here are value priced matchups to consider.

Els +130 vs Woods -160
Mickelson +125 vs. Woods -155

Because of Tiger’s return, the prop bets this year are out in record numbers, many centered on Eldrick. Here is a list of some of the possibilities besides winning The Masters.

* Making the Cut
* First hole score (Par or other)
* Leader at the end of any round
* 1st Round score (72)
* 1st round score on front or back nine
* How many holes before first birdie or eagle
* 1st round position, plus highest and lowest round, along with Over/Under on final total strokes

Woods has only missed one Major cut in his career, but brings a real unknown into his initial appearance of 2010, even as the betting favorite. The Masters is annually the most watched golf event on TV and this one could break all the records.

Time for Lift off on Monday

Brought the truck back around to the winning side with 2-1 day and I warned Paul Buck Pitt might be in trouble. Today we have a super NHL trend that will bring a smile to hockey bettors face. The Best System is in the MAC at 28-6 and I have several weekend observations. Good Luck

What I thought today- It was quite a weekend in basketball for the sports bettor to take in the action and learn a great deal about the teams they were wagering on. You could make a case Georgetown has as good a three main players in guards Chris Wright, Austin Freeman and center Greg Monroe, as there is in college basketball. No question a number of others teams are more complete than the Hoyas, however when all three of these players are on, as Duke found out, G-Town is very good. The Blue Devils looked very tired and did an unusually poor job in transition defense. When Duke is getting beat, they are not receiving any contributions in the paint.

Louisville outscored West Virginia 71-46 in the middle 32+ minutes of their game against West Virginia and covered. However, they trailed 13-0 after the first three minutes of the contest and the Mountaineers used an 18-4 closing salvo to win 77-74. Credit coach Bob Huggins for using 1-3-1 zone defense in last four minutes plus to prevent the Cardinals from scoring. Louisville also got “homered” on brutal call with seconds remaining, which should have given them the ball back under their own basket.

In watching Baylor and Texas, it really appeared the Bears were the better team in upsetting the Longhorns in Austin. The Texas guards just don’t offer enough offensively unless you count turnovers and excessive dribbling as positives. One positive for coach Rick Barnes, Texas played with defensive intensity in the second half of this contest, something not witnessed in a couple of weeks. For the oddity of the weekend, Baylor’s Ekpe Udoh was 0-10 shooting in regulation play with no points and he scored the Bears first seven points in OT.

Kentucky went from seven point favorites all the way to 9.5 early Saturday afternoon before the marketplace settled on 8.5. It didn’t matter as the Wildcats were awesome on defense against Vanderbilt and DeMarcus Cousins showed he is going to be a tremendous NBA talent, probably after this his freshman season.

The Kansas and Kansas State’s contest lived up to all the billing with overtime thriller. The Jayhawks can turn to several different players in the context of a game and find a way to win. K-State is so aggressive, especially on the offensive glass. Coach Frank Martin might have played the final minute differently given more time to think about, taking what seemed to be an unnecessary calculated risk. Glad I was off that game, as the last second heave by the Wildcats was either a heart-breaking spread loss or cause for lucky celebration with Kansas State catching four points.

Illinois is not mentally strong and are a bad favorite play. Watched Pacific for about 25 minutes, they look like a good bet the rest of the way in the Big West as single digit favorites, which won’t be often. Couldn’t help but be impressed with Cornell. The Big Red wasn’t on TV, however the humiliated Harvard 86-50 on their own home floor. Cornell is 18-3 and 13-3 ATS and their only losses have come to Seton Hall, Syracuse and they realistically could have been then and now No. 1 Kansas in Lawrence, losing by five.

Go figure, North Carolina is 13-8, as is Connecticut, after both were upset this weekend. There is still time to improve record, but right now neither looks like they belong in NCAA Tournament and they are a combined 14-23-1 ATS.

It was lost on me why PGA Tour players were outraged Phil Mickelson used an old Ping wedge that technically could be deemed illegal, but was “grandfathered” in under the rules of golf and thus is 100 percent legal. Having worked in the golf business for a long time, I’m well aware that many professional golfers are not that much different than those that setup NASCAR rigs. In other words, you make the rules and I’ll take them as possibly as close as I can without “breaking the law”. Mickelson was playing by the rules and if he could get a slight edge on his competitors don’t blame him, blame the golfers that didn’t keep an old wedge around that was over 20 years old. Trust me, though these golfers are as honorable as any athletes in sports, if their golf balls went one foot past the number of feet per second rule on compression, very few would not use golf balls deemed “illegal”.

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Free Basketball System -1) Play On home favorites of 10 or more points like Bowling Green after scoring 55 points or less, against opponent after scoring 60 points or less three straight games. The Falcons are in 28-6 ATS winning situation at 82.4 percent.

Free Hockey Trend - 2) The most humorous NHL game tonight is Edmonton and Carolina, as each team has combined angles of 0-22 going against each other. Instead we’ll say to watch Anaheim, who is 9-1 against the money line in road games after two consecutive non-conference games over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Ron is the newest member of the Left Coast Connection and he sees a tired and flat Lakers club in Memphis tonight and is backing the Grizz.

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The 2009 U.S. Open Preview

The favorite for this year’s United States Open championship is – surprise, Tiger Woods at +125. El Tigre showed the world he is pretty all the way back with his brilliant come from behind win at the Memorial. After not trusting his surgically repaired knee, Woods showed himself and everyone else he’s back, as his previously erratic driver nailed 49 of 56 fairways at Jack Nicklaus’ tournament.

The Open returns to Bethpage Black, after being highly successful there in 2002. This is a public golf course that people arrive at 4 AM in the morning to secure an open tee time. Make no mistakes, this is a great track and it will play 200 yards longer then it did seven years ago, meaning you have to get off the tee or be incredibility accurate with long irons, hybrids and fairway woods.

Is Tiger a shoo-in to win his 15th major?

Though Woods has had great success on public golf courses like Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach, he’s not a lock, despite playing well. This week’s wild card in hardly a longshot, (second betting choice at +1000) but Phil Mickelson has many hats to wear this week. Lefty was a tremendous crowd favorite here in 2002 and that doesn’t figure to change this year, especially with what has gone on with his wife Amy’s breast cancer diagnosis.

Though many golf pros don’t like Phil’s act, New Yorker’s embraced him immediately, consider it like a Mets and Yankees thing. Woods is like the Yankees, big and powerful and always lets you know who is in charge. Mickelson plays to the crowd and though the second best player in the world, he’ll always be in Tiger’s shadow, making him the classic underdog.

Will Mickelson have the patience to play 72 holes of golf under control, with what is swirling around in his head? The crowd will help, but it seems unlikely.

Padraig Harrington (+4000) won the last two major titles of 2008 and has worked to get better; however his swing adjustments have not panned out to date. Angel Cabrera (+7500) won The Masters in overtime in April and is wholly capable of putting up black numbers or shooting 79 twice to start The Open. Sergio Garcia (+4000) is playing with broken heart, having split up with Greg Norman’s daughter. Just wait till he gets within earshot of a New Yorker with a few Bud Light’s in his belly. As Mr. T once said, “I pity the fool.”

Players with the right game or playing well have to be strongly considered. Jim Furyk (+1500) is always a threat and tends to hang around the leaderboard at most majors with is steady play and is solid head to head wager. Geoff Ogilvy (+2000) and Sean O’Hair (+4000) have the length needed and are stable personality-wise to go through the grind that is the U.S. Open. One player that sticks out is Paul Casey (+2500), three wins (two in Europe) this year and a batch of other top finishes. Steve Stricker has played as consistently well as anyone on tour the last 18 months and the same no-name feel another Madison, WI. golfer by the name of Andy North had, being a two-time Open champion. (Ironically, North’s only two wins on the PGA Tour)

In looking over the head-to-head matchups, found a few that will be on my list of wagers at DiamondSportsbook.com.

Steve Stricker -220 over Adam Scott
Retief Goosen -105 over Sergio Garcia
Paul Casey -130 over Angel Cabrera
Vijay Singh -115 over Ernie Els

The U. S. Open is the sternest test in golf. If you like a player who is capable of being a “birdie machine”, save your money. This major is won by players who have the mental capacity to grind through 18 holes, four consecutive days. The course is set up to ensure par is a good score on every hole. The rough was believed to be a little too long right off the fairway seven years ago and Mike Davis of the USGA, the person who sets up the Open courses, went to graduated levels of rough, too truly punish the player who hits it wide.

The greens will be lightning fast, though relatively flat. Professional players are used to seeing breaks and will sometimes “over-read” these greens, believing there is more break than it looks.
Since Davis has taken over course management, the U.S. Open has become watchful again and the theatre spectacular. Expect more of the same in New York starting Thursday.

The 2009 Masters Preview

The premier golf event on the calendar arrives this week, with its emerald green fairways, blooming azaleas and its other colorful array of flowers and shrubs. The golf course that is The Masters at Augusta National is like no place on earth. On windier days, you can hear the whistling of the dogwoods and pines trees and if you watched any college basketball the last three weeks, the promos read on ESPN or CBS had announcers going from excitable voices from the games to hushed monotone deliveries in promoting this year’s event.

The Masters this year has a different feel and anticipation from the last several for reasons outside of the tournament. The defending champion Trevor Immelman is trying to become just the fourth back-to-back champion. Rest assured he will draw little if any wagering action at Bookmaker.com and other wagering locations at +10000, since he all but disappeared after winning at Augusta. He tied for second in Memphis, but didn't have another top-10 finish until the Tour Championship, where he was 10th in a 30-man field. His best showing was 19th at the Transitions Championship this season, not exactly the description of a hot golfer.

One story almost nobody is talking about is Padraig Harrington. He has won three of the last six majors, including two in a row and is halfway to the Paddy-Slam. Why Harrington isn’t receiving his just due is because a certain Mr. Woods was recuperating from knee surgery having won the previous major, the U.S. Open, before being forced to shut it down. In some circles, though it is ludicrous, Harrington being the reigning British Open and PGA champion, is viewed like the Houston Rockets winning back to back championships when Hall of Famer to be Michael Jordan was finding out he couldn’t hit the curveball during a two year hiatus. Harrington is +1500 wager to snare a third consecutive major.

A couple of oldies but goodies will be playing at The Masters, with one such golfer making first appearance in some time. Fred Couples is almost eligible for the senior tour, (fine, Champions Tour) and was in the hunt at the Houston Open last week until he played the last three holes, three over. Maybe its wedded bliss, tired of being successful at everything he touches or just has a bit of the golf bug back, but Greg Norman returns to Augusta for the first time in seven years. Neither player is expected to be in contention; nevertheless, seeing them even at advanced ages is like watching your favorite rock band from 12-20 years ago. Older yes, but still fun.

While nostalgia has its place, eventually everybody is replaced by a younger more skilled competitor. Two that fit this mold are Anthony Kim and Rory McIlroy. Kim (+3000) was the best player last fall and has been globe-trotting a little too much to likely be a factor. McIlroy (+2500) is 19 and has serious game, as he proved at WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship.
Everybody wants to find that long-shot which could come in, yet still is considered a very good player that offers value. Sergio Garcia (+2500), Camilo Villegas (+4000) and Ernie Els (+3000) are ranked in the top 20 of the World Golf Rankings and would be the type of players that would make sensible wager. One problem, this trio has failed to make the cut each of the last two years in Georgia.

There are a number of other players with golf skills that have to be considered like Retief Gossen and Paul Casey at +2500. Jim Furyk (+3000) always gets a look as a grinder and Luke Donald and Lee Westwood are renowned players and are part of a group at +5000.

The second choice is Phil Mickelson at +800 and he expects to be in the hunt for third green jacket since 2004. Mickelson appreciates the history and has learned to build himself towards this invitational. Lefty has been hitting irons brilliantly all year, including adding a draw from distance since the off-season. His driving has been more erratic (even for Phil), but that has to do with mindset. Like the Nike commercial from a few years ago, “Chicks dig the long ball”, Mickelson has always been obsessed with distance and it costs him often. With the length of Augusta National today, you have to get off the tee, nonetheless a playable second shot is as important. If the driver is working, definite threat.

Lastly is Tiger Woods at +220 to win a fifth green jacket. Woods added to his ever growing legend at Bay Hill with long birdie putt to win, which pronounced him as back. Tiger is a rare athlete, always able to find the slightest motivation to create burning desire and though some way work as hard today, nobody works harder in golf to be their best.

After Woods won in 2005, those in charge of the course made more adjustments to “Tiger-proof” the course. They effectively changed the best theatre in golf to the U.S. Open. The Masters has never been about surviving, it was been grabbing history by the throat and claiming it. Sometimes this has led to colossal failure, like Greg Norman and Curtis Strange felt. But to legislate players from making stirring comebacks by posting a 32 or 33 on the backside on Sunday, because few were given too much power thinking this tournament could turn into the Bob Hope, well that is preposterous.

Trevor Immelman deserved to win last year’s Masters, but his final round 75 marked the first time in 26 years the champion shot over par in the final round and it was the highest final round by a winner since Arnold Palmer had the same score way back in 1962, which he later won in playoff.

It’s no fun to pick Tiger Woods or even Phil Mickelson, but on golf’s grandest stage, it is the safest bet.

World Golf Championship Betting Blog –Friday

No, those wallowing sounds you heard weren’t the executives for the Golf Channel and ABC crying and moaning about their precious commodity Mr. Woods being eliminated (though it could have been), it was just the local coyotes howling. Tiger’s loss did prove he is human after all, that even a well tuned machine like him needs to play in competitive situations in order to get back to the top of his game after such a long layoff. Though this has nothing to do with the outcome, it is noticeable Woods has made a swing change with his irons. His feet are now closer together and left foot slightly open, which is designed to reduce the stress on the knee.

Besides the Tiger excitement and upset, three other matches went into extra holes, all won by seasoned veterans, Geoff Ogilvy, Luke Donald and Stewart Cink. Much like betting itself, match play shows you can be on the right or wrong side and still come away victorious or with a hard luck loss. Anthony Kim has an eagle and six birdies and lost and Sean O'Hair shot one over par and won his match against Boo Weekley.

Because were down to eight matches, the action doesn’t start to 12:45 Eastern, with some exceptional matchups. Probably the best matchup is Luke Donald and Ernie Els. Both players look to be at their best and Els now has the added benefit of not having to worry about Tiger, as has been his penchant in recent years. Els at -125 looks very tempting.

Phil Mickelson and Stewart Cink is another dandy, with two tough hombres. Most probably don’t remember Cink lost to Woods in the finals last year and Mickelson, isn’t playing to his fullest abilities, and yet keeps on grinding out wins. Take Lefty in a tight match.

My pick to win the tournament, Geoff Ogilvy, runs into the most dominate player, at least in terms of outcomes today. Camilo Villegas first two matches have been blowouts 7and 5 and 5 and 4. Villegas has the look of a champion and is actually a -120 favorite today.

Will Tim Clark have the same steely determination today? He’s a -125 favorite, however I believe tracking down a Tiger leaves you a little flat and Rory Mcllory picks him off.

My picks have been strictly play against material at 3-9 and here is what I see today.

Mickelson -140 over Cink

Poulter -130 over O’Hair

Furyk -155 over Fisher