2010 MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

There are highs and lows in every major conference. In the Mountain West Conference they range from 70 feet to 7,200 feet in altitude.

They also range from 2009’s National Coach of the Year (TCU’s Gary Patterson) to one-win New Mexico.

For a league an unsung as the MWC, they find themselves atop the pecking order in a handful of meaningful categories in the FBS. Among them: TCU QB Andy Dalton leads all returning signal callers in career victories (29), while Utah has more consecutive bowl wins (9) than any team in the nation.

In addition, the Utes and the Horned Frogs will ride 17 and 14 game home win streaks, respectively, into the 2010 season.

With 26 all-conference players returning in 2010, it would be no surprise to find this league to improve on its 25-16 bowl mark since 1996. After all, they’re riding a mighty nice high in the MWC these days.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

AIR FORCE – *5 / 5
TEAM THEME: WHERE’S THE BEEF?
While the Falcons welcome back just five starters on offense, including QB Tim Jefferson, the quintet accounted for 100% of the team’s passing yards, rushing yards and total scoring. The concern for HC Troy Calhoun is rebuilding an offensive line that loses all five starters to graduation. Despite losing nearly 1,500 pounds of beef, the Force will again feature a ground attack that has led the MWC in rushing 26 of 28 years, including each of the last 12. There are a few issues on the defensive side, as well. The last time we saw the Falcons’ stop unit in action was in the Armed Forces Bowl where they shut down high-powered Houston, 47-20, picking off Case Keenum SIX times. However, only five starters return from that opportunistic unit which ranked No. 11 nationally while leading the country in turnover margin, including zero on the offensive line. Yes, there are some holes to fill this season in Colorado Springs but in ‘Calhoun We Trust.’
PLAY ON: vs. Navy (10/2)

BYU – 6 / 6
TEAM THEME: CREATURES OF HABIT
Who needs a calendar when you have a Bronco? By the end of November, you can pretty much count on double-digit wins from BYU and by the third week in December you can always find the Mormons in Sin City. For the fourth time in five years, Bronco Mendenhall’s Cougars won 10-plus games, while a fifth straight season was capped off with a trip to the Las Vegas Bowl. In truth, last year’s 11-win season was probably a bit disappointing. After surprising Oklahoma to start the season, the Cougars were upset at home by Florida State and lost for the second year in a row to conference rival TCU. They’ll get a chance to make amends this year with trips to Tallahassee and Fort Worth. With just six starters returning on each side of the ball, we need to see more before assessing those chances. One thing we know for sure: we’ll be rolling the dice with Bronco’s boys come December.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Utah (11/27)

COLORADO STATE – 4 / 10
TEAM THEME: HONEY, PLEASE COME BACK
After leading the Rams to their first winning season since 2003 and delivering their first bowl victory in seven years, the Ft. Collins courtship was on for HC Steve Fairchild. A 3-0 start to 2009 pressed the engagement but, like a jilted lover, things got ugly. Real ugly. A season-ending nine-game losing skein was even more befuddling considering the fact that the Rams were favored in four of those contests. For Fairchild to get back in the sack, he’ll need the offense to revert to their productive 2008 form. Easier said than done with only four starters back in the mix, including a new signal-caller for the third straight season. The defense, as a whole, took baby steps in 2009 but the D-line, in particular, showed vast improvement. With 10 starters back on that side the ball, and a recruiting class that Rivals.com called CSU’s best in ten years, maybe Steve can get his groove back.
PLAY ON: vs. UNLV (10/16)

NEW MEXICO – 5 / 6
TEAM THEME: BABY STEPS
When you are winless without a TD in your last four season openers, a new team motto is needed. “Take the Next Step” is the phrase Mike Locksley has opted for in 2010. These young Lobos managed only one win for Locksley in his rookie season, but they showed marked improvement over the season’s final five games, losing the stat battle by an average of 59 YPG as compared to a negative 161 YPG in the first five games of the year. “The last five games we improved about 50 to 60 percent in almost every vital statistical category, and the last five games included the best teams in the conference. We got better, we stepped forward,” confirmed Locksley. Blue-chip DT recruit Calvin Smith and a defensive line that returns three starters assures these Lobos are taking steps in the right direction… slow but sure.
PLAY ON: vs. San Diego St (10/23)

SAN DIEGO STATE – *9 / 8
TEAM THEME: ABOVE ALL HOKE
If you listen to HC Brady Hoke, it’s time for his Aztecs to get physical. His first year at the helm saw San Diego State double its win total from the previous season, thanks to a defense that improved dramatically against the run. Yet opponents still more than doubled their rushing output per game (165 to 78). The continued development of both the offensive and defensive lines is critical if the Aztecs are to produce their first winning season since the MWC formed in 1999. Skill wise, Brady’s bunch is in good shape with the return of WR’s Vincent Brown (778 yards, 6 TD’s in six games before a season-ending thumb injury) and DeMarco Sampson, who was granted a sixth year of eligibility.
A relatively soft non-conference schedule may give Hoke the push he’s looking for early, but can this group hold their ground after visiting BYU, Wyoming and TCU? Time will tell.
PLAY ON: vs. UNLV (11/27)

TCU – *9 / 7
TEAM THEME: A TAD(POLE ) OLDER
The Frogs just seem to keep on multiplying. TCU had more freshmen (17) on the depth chart last season than seniors (13) and the 27 seniors on this year’s roster more than double last year’s number. Despite a disappointing bowl loss to Boise in which they held the Broncos to 25 points below their season average, the Horned ones completed a perfect regular season for the first time in school history. As always, it was about the ‘D’. Since 2005, the Frogs have allowed a meager 79.5 rushing yards per game – tops in the nation. In fact, over that span, Gary Patterson’s stop unit has held 45 opponents to under 333 total yards of offense, producing a 42-3 record in those contests. The offense is also in good hands as QB Andy Dalton, the MWC player of the year in 2009, returns. With only one tough conference roadie (Utah), it looks like the Fort Worth Frogs will, once again, be jumping.
PLAY ON: vs. Oregon St (9/4)

UNLV – *8 / 8
TEAM THEME: MR. CLEAN
Mike Sanford is out and Bobby Hauck is in as six straight non-winning seasons was all the UNLV brass could stomach. They’ll gamble that the winningest coach in the FCS over the last seven years can change the Rebels’ fortunes. Hauck compiled a stellar 80-17 mark at Montana while leading the Grizzlies to three national championship games. SR QB Omar Clayton returns along with four starting offensive linemen and 1,291 of the team’s 1,522 rushing yards. However, Hauck plans on cleaning house if necessary as he contends that, “No job is safe now or ever, really. You may see a lot of spread principles in our offense because that’s what the strength of our personnel is.” With nine bowl teams on this year’s form, including four non-conference bowlers, it may take some time before Hauck cleans up this mess.
PLAY ON: vs. Wyoming (11/13)

UTAH – *8 / 4
TEAM THEME: SAND BAGGERS
Playing in the MWC, Utah is America’s best-kept secret. However, every year when we publish our Bowl Stat Report, Kyle Whittingham’s Utes come front and center. That’s because Utah owns the winningest bowl percentage (12-3, 80%) in Division 1 history of teams with at least 15 appearances. They also own the nation’s longest current bowl win streak at 9 – and Whittingham has been a part of all of them. QB Jordan Wynn, the MVP of last season’s Poinsettia Bowl, is back. So too is RB Eddie Ware, who rushed for over 1,000 yards in 10 games last season. Ware is joined in the backfield by Matt Asiata, who led the conference in rushing through the first four games before a knee injury ended his season. Checking the scoresheet we find twelve starters in all, including six all-MWC perfomers, returning to Salt Lake City as Whittingham looks to make it 10 strikes in a row.
PLAY ON: vs. Iowa St (10/9) – *KEY as dog

WYOMING – *7 / 7
TEAM THEME: JUST DO IT… AGAIN
Chase Daniel, former Missouri quarterback, was right on the money when he proclaimed that his former OC Dave Christensen was “going to take that program to levels it’s never seen.” In short order, Christensen took the Cowboys bowling for the first time since 2004 and then proceeded to upset Fresno State as a double-digit dog in the New Mexico Bowl. Some may say it was the new Nike uniforms they wore for the first time in 2009. Others argue the five 4th-quarter comebacks orchestrated by MWC Freshman of the Year QB Austyn Carta-Samuels had more to do with it. “We didn’t utilize all of our offense last year… I think we can start moving toward what we originally envisioned for the spread when we came here… I believe we’ve improved our team athletically,” said Christensen. It’s hard to argue with success.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Colorado State (11/20)

Another Pac-10 team to fall?

Good luck in trying to figure out the California Bears this season. Preseason publications were correct is saying USC was vulnerable and Cal and Oregon were the two teams thought to be most capable of being Pac-10 champions. After a 3-0 start, the Bears were declawed by Oregon and USC by combined scores of 72-6 and were shown to be overrated. California (8-4, 6-6 ATS) regrouped and won five of next six, including an incredibly impressive 34-28 victory over rival Stanford at their place. With a chance to finish the season at least feeling good about themselves and earn Sun Bowl bid, what does Cal do, get whacked by Washington 42-10, dropping them to this pre-Christmas bowl in San Diego. California is 3-13 ATS after a game where they forced no turnovers.

Everyone following the Utah football program agrees this year’s 9-3 record is a long way away from last season’s 13-0 and final No.2 ranking. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t a successful campaign in Salt Lake City, since it was only Utah’s eighth nine-win season all-time. This has become a very stable football program under coach Kyle Whittingham, being able to possibly win 10 games after undefeated year, despite only four retuning offensive starters. Word out of Utah campus is the Utes (5-7 ATS) have quickly moved beyond overtime loss to astringent rival BYU and looks forward to the challenge of taking on a Pac-10 club, always a point of emphasis for Mountain West schools. Give Utah time to prepare and they are rugged opponent, with 24-10 ATS record when playing with two weeks or more of rest over the last 17 years.

Because of the matchup, this bowl shows up as a respectable 14th in our rankings. California was 3-3 SU and ATS against teams participating in bowls. Utah is 2-3 with only one cover vs. competition also playing in the postseason. The Bears are 10-8-1 as bowlers with 5-6 ATS record and this marks the sixth straight time they are favorites (2-3 ATS). The Utes are uber-bowlers with 11-3 record (9-3 ATS), which includes eight straight triumphs (6-2 ATS). They are sparkling 6-1 ATS as underdogs. The favorite has won all four Poinsettia Bowls, with a .500 spread record.

Both teams will be intent on stopping the other team’s running game, led by backup pigskin-totters. Cal has Shane Vareen in for Jahvid Best, who’s been unable to overcome concussion issues. Utah wants to force QB Kevin Riley to beat them and their defense is capable, since they are 11-2 ATS after allowing 275 or less total yards in consecutive games.

The Utes lost stud ball-carrier in Matt Aiata, however his replacement Eddie Wide ran for over 1,000 yards and scored 12 touchdowns, starting the last seven games of the season. California wants to see if true freshman quarterback Jordan Wynn handles a little Pac-10 pressure. Utah coaches might go max protection in obvious passing situations since the Bears were 108th in the nation in pass defense, allowing 260.9 yards per game, with 17 TD passes.

DiamondSportsbook.com has California as three-point favorites, with total of 51.5. The Bears have shown their trustworthiness in this exact situation under coach Jeff Tedford with 4-13 ATS record when the line is +3 to -3, losing by 4.1 points a game. Cal is 10-2 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Besides their dumbfounding bowl streak, Utah is 15-2 UNDER away from home after two or more consecutive wins against the spread, winning by six points per game.

ESPN will televise this confrontation from San Diego starting at 8 Eastern.


3DW Line – Cal by 2

College Football Saturday Betting Options

It’s been jam-packed season of crazy occurrences in college football and we’re getting down to the nitty-gritty. With what the schedule looks like, this is the last chance for TCU to be knocked off facing quality Utah club. The Big Ten title is on the line in Columbus, but sports bettors believe it will be one-sided. Florida and Alabama look to keep matching towards what appears to be BCS semi-final tilt. Oregon’s slip last week left them no room for error if they expect to be Pac-10 champions. What about ABC promoting potential Notre Dame train-wreck, instead of just how good this Pittsburgh team is and that they will have real chance to knock off unbeaten Cincinnati in the coming weeks. Jimmy Football is even more fired up than usual about Saturday’s action. Odds courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Iowa (+16.5, 37.5) at Ohio State 3:30E ABC/GP

Ohio State (8-2 SU&ATS) understands their Big Ten fate after winning impressively at Penn State 24-7. The Buckeyes offense has never found a comfort zone and in recent weeks and has dipped into coach Jim Tressel’s bag of tricks to score or setup better field position to score points. Though quarterback Terrelle Pryor has made improvements this season, he’s not taken the big stride forward. Part is dissonant offensive line, barely average running backs and receivers lacking experience. The defense has been at usual Buckeye standards, holding eight opponents to 18 or fewer points, including three shutouts. Ohio State is 11-0 ATS the week after battle with Nittany Lions.

While Iowa (9-1, 6-3 ATS) had drawn comparisons to 2002 Ohio State national championship team by winning a large number of close games, they are not in the same class, which home loss to Northwestern proved. If anything, that Buckeyes team underachieved, winning half their games by seven or fewer points and having 19 players drafted over a two-year period. The Hawkeyes talent level is not anywhere close to that benchmark and has achieved success by playing hard and never giving up.

Iowa has trailed on the scoreboard in eight of nine wins this season and that was with Ricky Stanzi at quarterback. Now QB James Vandenberg gets his chance. Last week he had a lot of pressure on his, especially after the Hawkeyes fell behind. This week, nobody is giving the Hawkeyes a chance, as bettors have pounded Ohio State. Mental resolve goes a long way as Iowa has outscored the opposition 148-57 in the second half, including 107-44 in the final 15 minutes. Iowa will be a conference road underdog for the fourth time this season and they are 3-0 SU and ATS and 9-1 ATS on the road the last two seasons. Since 2000 the Hawkeyes are 17-10-1 ATS in this exact role.

Ohio State is 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS since 1989 against Iowa including five straight SU and ATS beat-downs with average margin 20 points per game. If Iowa doesn’t turn the ball over, they’ll have a great chance to cover, if they do, the Buckeyes build on aforementioned numbers over the Hawkeyes.

3DW Line – Ohio State by 17

Florida (-17.5, 42) at South Carolina 3:30E CBS

This is Florida’s last SEC game already, having peculiar schedule that ends with two non-conference tilts. Scheduling Florida International next is a wise move before annual confrontation with Florida State. The Gators (9-0, 4-4 ATS) haven’t always looked like the best team in the country, but has shown signs of putting everything together with last two wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. The red zone issues are being answered and Tim Tebow has been more in sync with his receivers, like Riley Cooper. The defense is as good as there is ranked second in the country (232.4 YPG), led by team leader and linebacker Brandon Spikes. Wide receiver Brandon James and TE Aaron Hernandez have dropped more passes than necessary this season and a game might be coming in which that could haunt Florida. The Gators are 8-1 ATS as SEC road chalk.

This is also South Carolina’s last conference clash and has just in-state rival Clemson left. Since scoring 28 points against Kentucky, the offense has not been able to turn digits on the scoreboard, averaging 12.2 points per game. Facing a hungry Gators defense is not the easiest way to find a way to manufacture points. Quarterback Stephen Garcia has to keep wits about him in the passing game with the pressure he will face and be on target when the Gamecocks (6-4, 5-5 ATS) are in position to put up points. This will be a touchdown game, not field goal fest. Senior linebacker Eric Norwood and defensive mates have to throw off the timing of Florida offense and force turnovers that can lead to points. They haven’t lately and are 3-12 ATS in home games after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers.

South Carolina is 4-7-1 ATS as home underdogs under coach Steve Spurrier. The former Gators head man is 1-3 and 2-2 ATS vs. his alma mater.

3DWLine – Florida by 15

Alabama (-12.5, 43.5) at Mississippi State 7:00E ESPN

Alabama (9-0, 6-3 ATS) has won six of last eight against Mississippi State; however that doesn’t tell the whole story. From 1996 to 2000, the Crimson Tide lost four of five to the Bulldogs, with a matching spread record. In the last two decades, Mississippi State has covered the spread 14 of 20 times and been a real nuisance to Bama. Other than Ole Miss, Alabama is the next biggest rival on the Bulldogs menu and for the most part aren’t even given consideration by Alabama, which irks the folks from Starksville to no end.

Part of the Crimson Tide’s lack of focus comes from having LSU just after or before the Bulldogs, just like this season. No team can be emotionally ready week after week and this is a plausible explanation for Alabama’s problems with Mississippi State. Alabama has had to make adjustments offensively. In the first part of the 2009 campaign, opponents made a concerted effort to take away WR Julio Jones. This took a player out of the box and running back Mark Ingram has had big year. More recently, Ingram has been the focus of attention and QB Greg McElroy’s inability to complete passes has prevented the Tide from taking advantage until last week. Bama is 13-7-1 ATS since 1999 as SEC road faves and is perfect 6-0 ATS as visiting team the last two seasons.

The Bulldogs (4-5, 5-3 ATS) have played every ranked team they have faced tough, losing by 10 or less points. New coach Dan Mullen is seeking a first year signature win to help attract better recruits and an upset of Alabama has them on the front page or home page of every sports news outlet. Mississippi State has one of the premier running games in the country (12th) at 219.2 yards per game, with Anthony Dixon toting the pigskin. The Bulldogs are 6-6 ATS as home dogs vs Top 10 teams in last dozen tries. Seven of last 11 conflicts have been UNDER the total.

3DWLine – Alabama by 12

Notre Dame (+6.5, 58.5) at Pittsburgh 8:00E ABC/GP

Notre Dame saw their BCS bowl aspirations drown in upset loss to Navy 23-21. What looked like a 10-2 season, could easily turn into 7-5, starting with Pittsburgh next. The not always Fighting Irish (6-3, 2-7 ATS) welcomed back receiver Michael Floyd last week, giving quarterback Jimmy Clausen his full complement of weapons, like he had in the first 2 ½ games of the season. With Golden Tate having All-American season, the offense will be as dangerous as it has been all season. The offensive line will be tested against top quality Pittsburgh defensive front that is among the top 10 in the country. Notre Dame’s defense is always a concern and they will have to play above proven ability to stop one of the balanced attacks in the country. The Irish are 2-11 ATS in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in previous game.

Once beaten Pittsburgh (8-1, 6-2 ATS) scheduled wisely for this brawl. The Panthers have yet to lose in the Big East and have closing games with West Virginia and Cincinnati to determine who wins the conference and the BCS berth. However, they can give Notre Dame their full attention with a bye next week. Arguably the most improved quarterback in the country is Bill Stull, who’s blossomed under new offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. A more harmonious offense line has kept Stull’s jersey clean and freshman RB Dion Lewis has made a big splash, as the nation’s first 1,000 yard rusher. Pitt stopped Syracuse 37-10 last week and is 16-5 ATS in home games off a win against Big East rival.

The Panthers are just 3-9 ATS versus Notre Dame including 1-4 ATS at home. The visitor has won and covered four in a row.

3DWLine – Pittsburgh by 13

Utah (+20, 47) at TCU 7:30E CBSC

This is potentially the last big game in the Mountain West Conference if Utah can’t pull the upset of highly-ranked TCU. The Utes (8-1, 3-6 ATS) have just one blemish in the loss column, which occurred at Oregon, a 31-24 loss as four-point road dogs. Utah’s defense allowed the Ducks just 312 yards on that mid-September afternoon and has only allowed 14.3 points per game since. The Utes have reputation for being effective when it counts most and they have won eight of their last nine games decided by a touchdown or less. Coach Kyle Whittingham made the tough choice, going with talented true freshman QB Jordan Wynn, who’s provided a lift, particularly in the red zone. Utah is celebrated 41-20 ATS as an underdog, including 12-1 ATS as a Mountain West road dog of three or more.

Since the decade began, TCU (6-3 ATS) has won 92 games and been a continual contender in the Mountain West, now in its fifth season. The Horned Frogs have higher expectations this year sporting 9-0 record. With a victory over Utah, only at Wyoming and New Mexico stand in the way of perfect season and possible BCS berth. Just how good has TCU been, take away the snow and wind contest at Air Force (20-17 win), they have conquered all other teams by average score of 39-10. The Horned Frogs have domineering defensive front and quickness throughout the defensive two-deep. After years of being an efficient game manager and good runner, QB Andy Dalton has become more accurate thrower, making TCU much more alarming on offense. The Frogs are 11-3 ATS as a home favorite over the last three seasons, winning by 26.3 points per game.

Utah is 5-1 and 4-2 ATS and has won three in a row in this confrontation. TCU is 17-1 and 15-3 ATS in November battles in Fort Worth.

3DW Line - TCU by 18

Arizona State (+18.5, 50.5) at Oregon 10:15E ESPN

The Oregon Ducks (7-2, 6-3 ATS) look to continue their march towards a Pac-10 title and have home game against the Sun Devils. Oregon’s seven game winning streak ended at Stanford with foul defensive performance. The offense is hardly a duck out of water, averaging over 40 points a game in conference action, including the 24 against UCLA when quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was out with knee injury. Opposing teams have much to fear, as one Pac-10 coach said about Ducks offense after watching USC massacre. “The execution was at the highest level I’ve ever seen someone run the spread option attack,”

Another aspect is the athleticism of the Oregon defense, which is evident watching them play (when motivated) and fly around to the ball. It’s no wonder they are 28-11 ATS when they allow 15 to 21 points.

Folks in Tempe are showing signs of restlessness after three straight Pac-10 losses and 2-5 record since starting 2-0. Injuries have been a big factor for a squad lacking any real depth. Rumors are circulating that Dennis Erickson has a coaching staff littered with too many cronies and not enough younger energetic types that can recruit and keep the players fired up. Erickson is also calling the offense and questionable clock management has surfaced in different games, with many believing the head coach’s plate is too full. The defense is well above average (15th in total defense); however they will have to be uncommonly extraordinary to slow Oregon. The Sun Devils are a pale 8-18-2 ATS as a conference club catching points.

Oregon has oppressed Arizona State (4-3 ATS) in last four meetings, winning and covering each time, with average differential 24 points a contest. These two schools have averaged 64 points per game the last three years.

3DWLine –Oregon by 18.5

College Football is Back!

Finally! After what seems like an eternity, all the talk about college football will cease and the games will be played, with salivating sports bettors ready for action. Five lined games will open the festivities and we’ll cover four of them here, including the very first one, South Carolina at N.C. State. Let the fun begin!

South Carolina at N.C. State

Folks in Columbia are still waiting for the Steve Spurrier magic to kick in. In four seasons, the ol’ ball coach is 28-22 and 26-20-1 against the spread. After losing last three games, including bowl invite by a combined score of 118-30, the never satisfied Spurrier changed out five coaches trying to find magic formula to turn South Carolina into SEC contender. With only 12 starters returning, Chris Angel would have a hard time making this illusion work. Previous quarterbacks have transferred out except for sophomore Stephen Garcia, who has worked on being better passer to match his athletic running style. The offense only rushed for 94.1 yards per game last year and new line coach Eric Wolford is preaching toughness. The defense has talent in front seven; however secondary has to be rebuilt after finishing second in the country in passing yards allowed. The Gamecocks are just 2-6 ATS in last eight road games.

North Carolina State closed the 2008 regular season with four wins to earn bowl berth, before falling 29-23 to an equally hot Rutgers club in the Papajohns.com bowl. Coach Tom O’Brien’s disciplined style started to take root and 15 starters are coming back from last year’s turnaround squad. O’Brien enters his third season in Raleigh with 11-14 record, though has bettors attention with 15-8 ATS mark. Leading the way is ACC Rookie of the Year Russell White, who tossed 17 touchdowns, with only one interception. The offensive line should be steady with three starters back, however quality depth is nonexistent beyond starting five. The linebackers are difference-makers and the defensive line has potential All-ACC performers Alan-Michael Cash and Willie Young. The secondary has questions that will have to be answered for another bowl trip for a squad that is on 7-0-1 ATS run to start a new campaign.

With weeks to look at the side and total from Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets, sports bettors have taken N.C. State from three-point favorites to five. The total has remained relatively stable moving from 45 to 46.

North Carolina State was embarrassed 34-0 at South Carolina as two touchdown underdogs last year and are looking forward to return engagement at Carter-Finley Stadium this go-round. This matchup will once again be on ESPN at 7 Eastern and coach Steve Spurrier is only 7-7 against the spread in non-conference games and has usual early date with Georgia next on September 12. South Carolina is 2-7-1 ATS facing non-conference foes before the Bulldogs. N.C. State is 4-1-1 ATS hosting the Gamecocks.

Troy at Bowling Green

This game will garner very little attention on the national scope, however is extremely important to Troy and the Sun Belt Conference. The SBC teams have for years taken paydays to be somebody’s patsy (they still will, just less frequently); however they have a goal in mind today. The Sun Belt wants to gain recognition like the MAC teams and in order to surpass them and gain bragging rights, they have to start knocking them off.

Troy is the unanimous choice to win the Sun Belt and is loaded on both sides of the ball. If the offensive line comes together, the Trojans could surpass last year’s offense that averaged more than 32 points per game. Defensively, the athletic front seven is a load for a team that is 7-3 ATS on the non-conference road.

First year coach Dave Clawson is right about his team’s non-conference schedule, “It’s a really challenging schedule,” Clawson said about playing Troy, Boise State, at Missouri and at Marshall. “The one thing I do know is that we will be well-prepared for our MAC schedule by the time we are through with our out-of-conference schedule.” With just 10 starters returning, the Eagles might be hard pressed to improve on 3-10 ATS home record the last three years. Troy is touchdown favorite.

North Texas at Ball State

On ESPNU at 7:30 Eastern, two other Sun Belt and MAC teams will collide. North Texas ruled the SBC in the early years of this decade, no more, having won five conference games in last four years. Coach Todd Dodge is convinced the personnel is improving and if his redshirt freshman son Riley can rev up the offense, brighter days could be ahead in Denton for a team that is 0-20 and 2-18 ATS in non-conference road games.

Ball State won’t look like the same team. A new coach, new quarterback and four new offensive linemen are where it starts in Muncie. Redshirt freshman Kelly Page takes over for prolific passer Nate Davis and hopes his line will give him time to show off his arm. The defense switches to 4-3 from 3-4, however has speed and athletes on this side of the ball seldom seen on the Ball State campus. The Cardinals are 16-point favorites and are 7-1 ATS as home chalk.

Utah at Utah State

It will be a tough encore for Utah after completing 13-0 season and ranked No.2 in the final polls after taking apart Alabama 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl. The Utes lost QB Brian Johnson to graduation and coach Kyle Whittingham has decided to keep everyone in suspense about who his new signal caller will be. Blog reports from observers have seen junior college transfer Terrance Cain taking the majority of the snaps with the first team. Utah is listed as 21-point favorite over in-rival Utah State and they are 10-5-1 ATS as 20-point or more choice.

Utah players and coaches will see a familiar face on the Aggies sideline in Gary Andersen, who has been the Utes defensive coordinator the last three seasons. Anderson has brought excitement to Logan, though the talent will still have to arrive later. In “The Battle of the Brothers” Utah is 11-0 and 8-3 ATS since 1998, with the visitor 8-1 ATS. This is on the MTN at 9:00 Eastern.

Value Plays from System in NCAA Tourney

With the March Madness now upon us, it is time to prepare your self for the first round of hoops wagering action. With half the tournament played out in the first two days, you are presented with your best opportunity to profit significantly. Many people have different ways they use to select winners; here is another method I’ve used that has allowed me to win 13 times in the last 16 years in the first round.

What I have done for years is find the records of all D-1 schools exactly one month before the bids are announced. This year that would be the games played through February 15. This is the center piece of future action. Once the bids are announced, that’s when it is time to go into action.

Compare the records of the teams that made the tourney from a month ago versus what they are now that they are goin’ dancin’. Take their previous position in their league standings and once again compare them to what they were when the regular season ended. Lastly, we want to know where they finished in their conference tourney. Let me show you what this should look like:

Purdue 19-5 25-9 6-3 3rd 2nd 1st
No. Iowa 18-8 23-10 5-2 1st 1st 1st

In the example, both teams played pretty well in the last month of the season. Because of how the Big Ten played out at the end of the year, Purdue moved up one spot in the conference standings during the regular season and played very well in winning conference tournament. Northern Iowa was a persistent performer, finishing first in all categories as Missouri Valley Conference champions.

Moving on, what we are seeking is potential value with underdogs that can cover spreads and win outright. If two teams have played well to close the season like North Carolina (5-2) and Radford (6-1), this would not qualify as a play. The same would be true if they were ordinary to close the season. Texas (5-4) and Minnesota (3-4) would fit this criterion. What were searching for are contrasts, one team on uptick and the other apparently fading.

Here is an example of the type of situation we are looking for:

Utah 18-7 24-9 6-2 1st 1st 1st
Arizona 18-8 19-13 1-5 5th 6th Lost Quarters

Utah was unchanging in playing in a descent league, staying the course and finishing first in all three categories, including playing well to close the year. Arizona despite having three potential NBA players was extremely unimpressive to finish the year. Many in the media like Arizona because of their talent, which is a legitimate argument; however if a team is not playing well against one that is, you have to at the very least take that into consideration.

Another winning situation involving this method would be a mid-major conference team and a school from a large conference.

Marquette 21-4 24-9 3-5 2nd 5th Lost Quarters
Utah State 24-2 30-4 6-2 1st 1st 1st

The Golden Eagles lost one of their main components in Dominic James, when he broke a bone in his foot. Though Marquette has gamely played on, they are not the same team without their point guard and not enough scoring or defensive pressure has been forthcoming off the bench. Utah State is out of the WAC and works diligently to take good shots, accounting for 49.8 percent mark from the field and 39.8 percent from behind the arc. The Aggies have held opposing teams to 62.1 points per game on the season and could have a chance to pull the upset.

In my sixteen years of using this system, I have had only three losing opening rounds, one being last year. What caused last year’s failure was the lack of upsets, which was later bore out as all the top seeds went to the Final Four since the field was changed to 64.

My belief is that will change this year, when examining history, Memphis is the only team with a minimum of three losses. The last time this many tournament teams had as many losses in the higher seeds was exactly 70 years ago, 1939.

Without further ado, here are the teams that could be spread winners in the first round based on this system. – Utah, Utah State, Western Kentucky, Temple, Morgan State and USC. (Note- Alabama State technically qualifies, but leery about play-in game).

Jockeying for Position in College Hoops

The final week to two weeks before conferences start playing their tournaments can be full of land mines. A situation to watch for are teams that have just achieved a meaningful goal or hit a milestone. Those teams can be a great “go against” in their next game as many times it is a letdown situation. A team winning its 20th game or clinching a conference title should be noted. Drake last year exceeded their goals in winning the Missouri Valley Conference title. Their next game was at home against Bradley as a 6.5-point favorite. They lost outright.

You should know if a team is locked into a certain seed or within a range of their conference standings and have really nothing to gain in their final few conference games prior to their tournament. Be careful with those squads as the coach might want to rest key players or be more concerned in preparation for the tournament than for individual games.

What teams took a tumble this past week or at least lost some of their shine? Let’s start with Davidson. Their foe, Butler, became the only real victor who gained anything in Bracket Busters weekend. The Bulldogs had just lost two games back to back in the Horizon League, one of them at home, and were looking vulnerable. Butler, a very young team, but one who plays tremendous defense with intensity handled the more experienced Davidson squad rather easily.

Stephen Curry did play for Davidson but stated he was not 100%. Davidson’s chance of securing an at-large bid was already in jeopardy as they had lost at home to The Citadel by 16 points within the week. Curry missed that game but a Tourney team should never lose to The Citadel at home, especially by double-digits.

A case could be made that St. Mary’s also got a huge up-tick in their stock beating Utah State, and covering the point spread I should add. However, with an RPI of 53 and playing in the 15th ranked West Coast Conference, it is the NIT unless they beat the #1 WCC Tournament seed, Gonzaga, in the conference tournament. If that happens, the conspiracy theorists will come out of the woodwork saying the Zags loss was orchestrated by the conference to get the extra money they earn by having an additional team in the big dance.

Going into the weekend there was talk the Mountain West could get four teams into the NCAA’s: BYU, Utah, UNLV, and San Diego State. UNLV beat BYU over the weekend but San Diego State got mauled by New Mexico on the road losing by 26 points. The Aztecs have a slightly higher RPI than the Rebels, 47th to 50th, and did beat UNLV in OT in Vegas. UNLV also suffered from losing three road games to second tier Mountain West schools. Two big games on the road for UNLV are Utah on 2/25 and San Diego State on 3/7.

The Ohio Valley Conference only accepts the top eight of its ten schools into their tournament. This coming Saturday there is a true elimination game as the two teams tied for 8th in the conference with 5-12 records meet each other in their final regular season game. Tennessee Tech travels to Jacksonville State with the winner grabbing the #8 seed for the tourney and the loser calling it a season. Tennessee Tech did lose at home to Jacksonville St. earlier this year, 82-66.

The Pac-10 is a conference that has byes going to the top 6 teams in round 1 of their tourney. The bottom four schools have to play an extra game and thus will have to be victorious in four straight games without any rest to win their tournament, an almost impossible accomplishment. The two teams with the best chance of getting the #6 seed are USC and Oregon State, which incidentally meet on their last P-10 game.

UCLA is showing some deficiencies. They dropped their Saturday home game to Washington St. and have now lost three of their past four. Believe it or not, the Bruin defense has been performing terribly allowing a defensive efficiency rating of over 116 in those past four games. Their RPI has slipped to #36 and have a game at Cal Saturday, #32, which will help determine conference tourney seeding.

In the Big 12, the first four teams get a bye. Right now, there are four squads fighting for that #4 seed: Texas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St., and Nebraska. It is always important to be aware of any added motivation a team might have in a game.

The bottom two teams don’t go to the Atlantic 10 Tournament. These should be George Washington and Fordham. Even though it appears Fordham long ago gave up on the season, 4-18 ATS, their last game of the season is at home against St. Joseph’s and it could be a spot to consider the Rams.

St. Joseph had high aspirations going into the season, some people picked them to win the A-10. They looked good winning nine of ten games after the beginning of the year but have stumbled losing four in a row. The Hawks play cross-town rival Temple the Thursday before their final scheduled game against Fordham on Saturday, 3/7. The St. Joe bench is the next to shortest in the D-1 with only 14.96% of all minutes not coming from their starters. With this being Fordham’s final game of the year and St. Joseph possibly resting players who are exhausted from a long season, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams cover the point spread.

The Big Ten grants first-round byes to the top five finishers. The middle of the pack, Penn St., Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio St., and Michigan, are fighting for seeds 4 and 5. All five of these are also on or very close to the bubble.

Assuming Memphis wins the Conference USA Tournament, they will probably be the only league representative in the NCAA Tournament. However, if #39 RPI UAB beats Memphis at home this Thursday and runs the table, they would probably make it the final cut. The Blazers looked impressive humiliating Southern Miss by 30 points Saturday.

Teams like to feel as if they have “locked in” an invitation to the big dance before going to their conference post-season play. They don’t want to be in a position where they possibly have to win the tournament, or at minimum are required to have a very good showing, to make it to the NCAA Tourney.

Kentucky is sitting on the fence with a convincing win over Tennessee this past Saturday that they sorely needed. Their final four regular season games will make or break them as they still face South Carolina, LSU, and Florida. Only LSU of those teams is probably a lock for the NCAA so they should be hotly contested battles. Inconsistency, a #61 RPI, and an opening game loss to the Big South’s VMI are hurting the Wildcats.

Like other 12-team leagues, the ACC’s top four teams get a bye while the other 8 play. Wake Forest is fighting to overtake the current #4 team, Florida State. One team you can count out for an at-large berth is Virginia Tech. Not only have the Hokies lost 5 of their last 7, but their remaining four games are with Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, and Florida State.

A couple of RPI oddities are out there. Siena could be this year’s version of the 2006 Missouri State program that finished with a #21 RPI but didn’t get an at-large bid. The Saints played a tough schedule and are 5-0 against teams ranked 51-100. However, they have two losses to 101-200 schools.

If anybody has the time, could you please explain to me how Utah has managed to be the #11 RPI rated team? They lost to Southwest Baptist, a non-Division 1 team, and the #186 team, Idaho State. They are 0-1 versus 1-25 teams and 4-4 against 51-100 squads.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority wrote article.

Suger Bowl Wagering Preview

What mindset does Alabama (12-1) bring to the Sugar Bowl? Are they angry about losing to Florida or do they have hangover like many unbeaten teams before them, losing last game. The Crimson Tide ended up 9-4 ATS this season and third in the country on defense. At least they will have head coach Nick Saban harping at them to finish the season the right way.

“Our players are certainly disappointed,” Saban said. “But this is an opportunity. If you’re going to be a great team, when you lose, you want to come back and play your best the next time you play.” Alabama returns to New Orleans for the first time since New Year’s Day 1993, when they won their last national championship, in upsetting Miami-Fl. 34-13 as eight point underdogs.

Alabama has tremendous talent on both sides of the ball and could impose their will on Utah. Make no mistake; this by all appearances is not last year’s Georgia and Hawaii Sugar Bowl. Utah has a football program that has gone unbeaten twice during the regular season in the last five years. The Utes have won seven consecutive bowl games and have beaten proven teams like TCU and Oregon State this season, albeit in Salt Lake City. Utah (12-0, 7-4 ATS) does have added pressure of trying to uphold the non-BCS schools that have gotten to this stage. The Utes are 10-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

The Crimson Tide are in a bad spot from public relations viewpoint, because a win and cover or even blowout will be looked upon with a yawn, and a close game or even upset of Bama would send shockwaves for a team that was number one not that many weeks ago. Alabama is 4-9 ATS off a spread loss.

Bookmaker.com has Utah as 9.5-point underdogs with total of 45.5. The Utes are 23-9 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest and can make even further noise about a playoff system with the upset. Utah has been one the best bowl team’s period with 10-3 and 8-3 ATS record. How they pull the upset is halting the Tide running game. Utah was 14th in the country against the run and Alabama’s toughest games were when the running game was held in check, like Ole Miss, Tulane and Florida did in particular. Offensively, Utah has to move the chains and hope to hit big plays that lead to touchdowns. The Utes are 22-9 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

Watching film of Utah, probably was like scouting yourself is what the Alabama coaches thought. They like to control the clock with the run and have efficient passing game that chews up real estate. If the Tide can jump to quick lead like they often have in big games, they put the pressure on Utah to succeed immediately, not necessarily their strength. In many ways this is the reverse of the SEC title game for Saban’s squad. Bama was a significant underdog and managed to take a lead into the fourth quarter before wilting. The possibility strongly exists that Utah could do the same, before the stronger and better Alabama team controls the game in the final stanza.

If Alabama has the same thirst as USC did in the Rose Bowl, the results could be similar, however if the Crimson Tide come with the same emotional level as fellow SEC bowler South Carolina did, now this gets real interesting.

Alabama is 8-4 SU all-time in the Sugar Bowl and the SEC is 6-1 and 5-2 ATS. The favorite is 15-7 ATS the last 22 matchups in New Orleans.