Pitching Matchups to ponder

In the National League, two games standout Tuesday, one because of its importance and who the starting pitcher’s are and the other strictly because the two hurlers have dominating potential. These two contests overshadow the rest the other six games in the senior circuit and should be entertaining for sports bettors and baseball fans alike.

Houston at Chicago

The Chicago Cubs (52-45, -1.9 units) played liked they preferred first place, as Alfonso Soriano hit a walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 13th inning last night that allowed the Cubs to stay at the top of the division. Chicago has played fewer games to date than any NL Central team; however is three games clear of any competitor in the loss column.

Ryan Dempster (5-5, 4.09) comes off the DL today for Chicago, after missing just over three weeks with a fractured toe after jumping over the dugout railing to go on the field and celebrate a win over Milwaukee on July 5. Dempster has loved pitching at Wrigley Field and is 4-1 there this season. Bookmaker.com has established the Cubs as -110 money line home favorites, which suits Dempster, who is 32-12 at home when the money line is +125 to -125 during his big league career. (Team's Record)

He will go to battle against Roy Oswalt (6-4, 3.66) of Houston. Earlier this season, whispers were circulating maybe Oswalt was no longer a first-rate pitcher. In his last six starts, Oswalt has proven otherwise to his critics. The right-hander has 2.00 ERA in his last six outings, with the Astros having won the last five. He and his Astros teammates are 20-5 vs. a NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse.

The Cubs will be chasing a sixth straight win and are 47-24 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. This division battle begins at 8:05 Eastern on WGN.

Philadelphia at Arizona

The Phillies (57-40, +10.2 units) are thankful Arizona has a retractable roof in downtown Phoenix, since tonight’s game time temperature is expected to be around 115 degrees again. Philadelphia hopes Cole Hamels (6-5, 4.66) can regain late season form from a year ago and put some heat on the Diamondbacks. With the Phillies having won 18 of last 21 games, they will be facing one of the hottest pitchers in baseball all season in Dan Haren (10-5, 2.14).

Many have speculated Hamels heavy workload from a season ago has taken a toll this season, with a number poor performances and missed starts. The lefthander has looked better lately, allowing four runs in 12 innings in his last two starts. This will be a good test for Hamels to see if he really has regained prior form, since he is 2-3, with hefty 5.81 ERA on the road. In the past, Hamels and the Phils have feasted on revolting teams like Arizona (43-57, -16.2 units), with 13-3 road record against losing teams.

The D-Backs play a whole lot better when Haren in on the mound, winning 13 of 20 games, with the strong possibility of emerging victorious five other times if they would have had any offensive production. Haren showed a human side in his last start, charged with four runs on eight hits in five innings against the Pittsburgh, as he struggled with command. That was only the second time all season Haren surrendered more than three runs, his first such outing since May 23 in Oakland.

Haren has been a shutdown starter, with 7-0 record after the opposing team scored five or more runs. (D-Backs Record) Arizona opened as a -135 money line favorite, but sports bettors quickly pounded that line and the Snakes are now -112. That doesn’t change the fact Haren and Arizona are 9-3 as -110 to -150 home favorites, with the Phillies 11-3 in road games after a win by four runs or more this season.

Haren will throw the first pitch in the desert at 9:40 Eastern and fans can watch in local markets or on MLB.TV.

Kick Start your Monday

Hit two of three on Sunday, taking our record to 152-98-3, 60.8 percent, since the first part of April. The Top Trend is again a reverse perfect play, taking place in the Midwest. Sal is hotter than Phoenix, AZ steering wheel that sits outside during the day uncovered and has Free Play. The Best System is found in run line action, with two plays that are 86 percent winners. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: Joel Pineiro helped his own cause with a two-run double in the Cardinals 2-1 win over the Diamondbacks. Pineiro was the second pitcher in the last three seasons to win a game in which he drove in all of his team's runs, joining Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo, who homered in a 1-0 victory over the Pirates earlier this season (April 29). Pineiro was the first St. Louis pitcher to turn the trick since Ray Sadecki in a 3-1 win over the Phillies in the first game of a twinbill on August 6, 1961. (Thanks Elias)

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all teams against a run line of (+1.5, -155) to (-1.5, +135), after shutting out a division rival, starting an over-rested pitcher who is working on seven or more days rest. I’ll be honest, I’m not a huge run line fan, however this system is 37-6, 86 percent, including 3-0 this season. This would mean to play against Philadelphia and the L.A. Angels on the run line.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Kansas City Royals are 0-12 after two straight games with one or less extra base hits over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal was 4-1 yesterday taking him to 11-2 run-out and he is backing Colorado to crush Arizona near the Rocky Mountains.

New StatFox Football Annual on Sale – A must for Every Sports Bettor

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Running with the Bowls

Other sports journalists can whine about too many bowl games, sports bettors like us are just grateful for the chance of most action, with 34 sides and totals to consider over the next 20 days. The first four are available Saturday and plenty of tough decisions to made. Navy and Wake Forest start the festivities in Washington, D.C. Two bowl games will be offered in afternoon action, with 7-5 clubs squaring off against .500 teams. In the nitecap, Arizona and BYU matchup that could have a little more spice than your typical pre-Christmas contest. Take note that favorites before Dec.25 are 21-2 and 14-9 ATS.

EagleBank Bowl –ESPN 11:00 E
Navy (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs Wake Forest (7-5, 5-7 ATS)

The bowl season starts in our nation’s capital without the usual bang, but with more of a whimper. It’s a rematch (any bowls worst nightmare) of Navy and Wake Forest from Sept. 27, when Navy pulled the 24-17 upset catching 17-points on the road. The Demon Deacons turned out to be vastly overrated and are just 13-24 ATS as a favorite. Wake Forest is 5-3 and 4-2 ATS in bowls.

The Navy’s top-rated running game deserves most of the attention at 294.7 yards per game, however many will be singing the praises of the defense off consecutive shutouts. The Midshipmen have been one of the best spread teams for a numbers of years and they are 18-5 ATS in all December games since 1992. A 6-7-1 bowl record is fair, but a 7-2 ATS mark will fatten a wallet.

Why to Watch and Wager:

This is the first time in 63 years Wake Forest is playing the same team twice in the season. You would believe revenge would be a big motivator for the Demon Deacons, who are 20-6 ATS vs. meager passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards a game. Navy’s defense has to feel pretty proud after hanging eight straight zeros on the scoreboard and not a touchdown scored on them in over nine quarters. Their must have been something about the letter “W” this season, with Wake 103rd in total offense, among five different universities with that letter that finished in the 100’s in total yards gained. The Middies are 17-5 ATS on the road versus poor offensive teams averaging 310 or less yards per game.

Bookmaker Line – Wake Forest -3, 43.5

New Mexico Bowl –ESPN 2:30 E
Colorado State (6-6, 6-5 ATS) vs Fresno State (7-5, 2-10 ATS)

It was another disappointing campaign for Fresno State, who was the preseason favorite to win the WAC. The 105th ranked run defense took care of any hopes of the Bulldogs being extremely successful this season. Fresno State became a steady play against team this season at 2-10 ATS and is on a 1-9 ATS run as a favorite. Fresno State is 10-7 and 6-5 ATS in the postseason, thou 0-4 ATS as faves.

Colorado State won its last two games to become bowl eligible after two losing seasons. First year coach Steve Fairchild’s team should have a chance if the Rams can gear up the running game, being 15-3 ATS when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt. "We still have a lot of work to do here at Colorado State, in all areas of our program, but this is obviously a step in the right direction, and a tremendous reward for our 17 seniors, who've worked extremely hard during their time here in Fort Collins," Fairchild said. Colorado State is 1-4 ATS as a bowl underdog to go with 4-7 record.

Why to Watch and Wager:

Colorado State averages 263.3 yards passing per game with senior Billy Farris at the controls. Fresno State is weaker against the run than the pass, yet lacks playmakers in the secondary with a FBS-low four interceptions on the season. The Bulldogs roll over like a puppy after a spread loss like they suffered in last game to Boise State and are odorous 1-15 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons. If Fresno State gets the running game in order, they should have no problems slugging it out in the trenches against Rams run defense that was allowed 185.7 yards per game, which is ranked 100th.

Bookmaker Line – Fresno State -3, 60

MagicJack St. Petersburg Bowl –ESPN2, 4:30 E
South Florida (7-5, 4-7-1 ATS) vs. Memphis (6-6, 5-5-1 ATS)

South Florida, based in Tampa, will be very close to home in inaugural St. Petersburg, FL Bowl. The Bulls never came together as a team predicted to win the Big East title this season, as they were undermined by -7 turnover margin, in losing four of last five. The South Florida defense did its best, finishing 13th in the country in yards allowed at 291.1 per game. South Florida is 23-15 ATS in non-conference action.

Memphis made another late season push to finish 6-6, winning three of last four contests. The Tigers tamed Tulane 45-6 to have a chance to be invited to a bowl; however are 2-15 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game. Neither team has played in many bowls, though South Florida has an excuse being a FBS member only since 2001. The Bulls are 1-2 SU and ATS and Memphis is 3-2 all-time failing to cover as underdog on both occasions.

Why to Watch and Wager:

It’s hard to say if coach Tommy West is getting the max out of the Memphis program, yet with his continued back luck at the quarterback position, just earning a bowl invite is darn good. West teams have had a penchant for playing well against good defenses like South Florida , with 9-1 ATS in road games vs. defensive teams allowing 310 or fewer yards a game. The Bulls have to travel all of 32 miles to the home of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for this bowl encounter. Quarterback Matt Grothe had a fairly disappointing senior season, trying to do too much with not much help from receivers who couldn’t get open. This is his one last chance for redemption in front of a largely partisan USF crowd. Check out defensive tackle George Selvie, who will likely go into NFL draft as a junior. After scoring only seven points in snowy and wind-swept West Virginia in last contest, the Bulls are 8-1 ATS after scoring nine points or less last game.

Bookmaker Line – South Florida -11, 55

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl-ESPN 8:00 E
BYU (10-2, 3-8 ATS vs Arizona (7-5 SU & ATS)

BYU is probably mildly unhappy about not winning the conference, yet backers of the Mormon University always enjoy making the trek to Sin City. This will be their fourth consecutive trip to this bowl, thus the enthusiasm of the players is a question mark. The Cougars 17th ranked offense will match wits with the 21st ranked Arizona defense. What ended up costing BYU an undefeated season was a defense that was too slow against faster teams. The Cougars are 1-7 ATS since October.

The Wildcats only had one real bad defensive game against Oregon, allowing 55 points, otherwise were solid. Arizona is a field goal favorite with quarterback Willie Tuitama leading a balance attack averaging over 400 yards a game, which is 3-10 ATS in that role in non-conference play. Interesting to note, the Mountain West was 6-1 and 4-3 ATS in regular season meetings. The ‘Cats are in first bowl since 1998.

Why to Watch and Wager:

BYU has won eight in a row at Boyd Stadium, including two in a row over Pac-10 opponents. This should be the motivating factor for quarterback Max Hall and the offense to play well. The Cougars are 13-3 ATS in road games versus defensive teams allowing 310 yards or fewer yards per game, nevertheless this will be their third consecutive contest away from Provo and they are just 4-20 ATS after a two-game road trip. Count the ‘Cats as excited to be in a bowl game and this might be a prickly encounter as theses two schools have faced off the previous two seasons, splitting the contests. Coach Mike Stoops saved his job for the time being and hopes his team is ready, since they 3-8 and 4-7 ATS away from Tucson.

Bookmaker Line – Arizona -3.5, 59.5

NBA December Betting Knowledge

I don’t know how many NBA sports bettors ever think about the differences in the time of the season and what influence, if any, it might have on which team will cover a point spread or what games in what situations might go Over or Under the lined total? Is this a valid angle to look at?

Living in Las Vegas and having gambled in all capacities for more years than I care to remember (those cocktail waitresses coming around all the time playing you with free drinks might have something to do with my memory insufficiencies), I’ve seen all types of beliefs, superstitions, methodologies, mantras, etc. of people who sit in the sports book, in front of slots and video poker machines, and at the card and dice tables.

Standing at the rail of the craps table, or more likely leaning on it, I’ve watched people increase their wager tenfold because somebody has thrown three naturals in a row, 7 or 11, on the come out roll. Their logic is he’s hot and he will roll another 7 or 11 winner giving them enough money to pay the cover charge to the casino’s super nightclub with a party being hosted by Corey Feldman. They don’t realize, or forget (those cocktail waitresses fault again?) that every roll of the dice is an independent event with prior results having no effect on the upcoming roll.


I think the phrase “I’m due”, “he’s due,”, “they’re due”, or for heaven’s sake, “somebody is due”! is one of the most frequently-uttered axioms in gambling. “I’m down $400 in blackjack, I’m due to win”. Well, maybe if you would learn to double-down when you have a total of ten and the dealer has a four showing, you wouldn’t be losing so badly. It is also one of the most fruitless expressions there is not just in gambling, but in life. I went through six years of college thinking I was due for an “A” in a class, any class. It finally happened in Bowling 101. I was so ecstatic until I found out that anybody who showed up for every class got a perfect grade. I guess I was somewhat ignorant thinking my 119 average on the lanes would achieve such a high grade.


It is not just a superstition or a wild belief that certain times of the season have certain tendencies. Just like at the beginning of a new baseball season, the first 30 days has some strong trends as many teams are getting used to working with new teammates on both offense and defense. There are always a few new coaches or changes in systems that teams have to become fluid with. December has its own certain trends that occur that not many people are aware of. These aren’t all 60%+ winning systems. They are more like tendencies to give you an edge, which in betting the NBA, it is very important to have any edge you can get.


Getting an edge is easy for December games. Since the beginning of the 2004 season during the month of December, away dogs have cashed a ticket 54.1% of the time. Except for the last couple of weeks of the season in April, December is the only month that has greater than a 50.5% winning rate for road dogs. That is as basic as you can get. Does this mean you should blindly bet on away dogs in December? In my opinion it doesn’t, but it does make me look at road dogs first before considering a home favorite. It’s nice to start capping a game with a 4.1% edge.


A situation that has averaged about nine occurrences a season but is worth looking for due to such a high winning percentage is: Since the 2002 season, a team off of a road win of 20 points or more has a 31-15 ATS record in December, 67.4%. There is only one other month with even a winning record in this situation, 28-22 in the month of March. The linesmaker doesn’t catch up with shading the line enough this early in the season. By January he does with the result of a 16-26 ATS record for the team off the big road victory.


How about following an easy trend for December that gives you two-for-one results: winners in both the side and the total? This out of sight trend only entails playing on teams that have won two road games in a row and also playing Over the lined total in that game. In December over the past three years, you would have cashed 15 out of twenty tickets on the winning side, one push, and 17 out of 21 times on the winning total. You don’t have to be a maverick of a handicapper to make money betting that trend.



A general rule many handicappers follow is to play on teams that have lost a couple of games in a row. They believe the line will be adjusted enough so the losing team is getting some value. This isn’t the case in December games. Teams that have lost two straight games only have a losing ATS record in that third game during one month of the season. And naturally that month is December. Just as in one of our earlier examples, the line has not adjusted accordingly this early in the season.


As in most sports, revenge can be a great tool to look for when handicapping games. First, in this example, we have to exclude April where you have about two weeks left of the regular season and a lot of funny stuff can happen such as teams tanking games to achieve a good draft spot, teams with playoff spots cinched that are resting regulars, and teams looking at young players to determine their future with the squad.


So, excluding April, if you just blindly played on a team seeking revenge from a same-season defeat, you would make money in every month over the past three years except what month? Move to the head of the class (or the front of the betting line) if you said December! Playing on same-season revenge-seeking teams in November, January, February, or March, means you would have a winning record of 55.5%. If you have played the NBA before, you will know that is not a bad record to hang your hat on. Maybe same-season revenge-seeking teams in December get into the holiday spirit as they only cover the point spread 45.5% of the time.


Pay attention to these December trends to help make you money. Right now, I am in the middle of a tough bowling match, but not to worry. I’m due to pick this 7-10 split up.


Jim Kruger is a noted NBA handicapper and owner of Vegas Sports Authority.