Dayton picked to fly home as NIT champions

At this point in time, not sure a college hoops team has a better nickname than the University of Dayton. The Flyers are flying by opposing teams in their four games in the NIT. For this reason, they are favored to be the best of the field when they take on North Carolina in Madison Square Garden for the title.

Dayton (24-12, 17-15-1 ATS) is a difficult opponent on many levels, they press on defense the entire game to force physical turnovers while anticipating the mental aspect of their performance will also cause teams to falter. Coach Brian Gregory has a veteran cast that he substitutes liberally, as much as 50 times a game. Every player has been taught to get the ball and go on any rebound or made basketball by the opposition and Dayton players fly down the court looking for easy buckets and slam opportunities. It’s not hard to figure why they are 11-4 ATS in non-conference games this season.

So how did Flyers lose a dozen games? The answer was in the semifinal win over Mississippi. Dayton held a few double digit leads; however their frantic style led to Rebels runs, as they took wild off-balance shots or just threw the ball away playing out of control. A patient offensive team can breakdown individual defenders since Dayton players seem almost bored having to guard a player more than 20 seconds. This would explain 4-13 ATS record away from home when they commit 14 to 18 turnovers in a game.

North Carolina (20-16, 13-20-1 ATS) was hoping to be playing in a different championship, but this one will do after the kind of year the Tar Heels have had. The story all year for Roy Williams’ team has been turnovers and no question point guard play has been part of the issue. Larry Drew has taken heated criticism and much deservedly so, yet upon closer inspection, he’s not the only player to blame.

Drew could do a better job in judgment terms, sometimes throwing errant passes or delivering the ball almost carelessly at his teammates feet, however enough of those in Carolina blue do mediocre work in using their bodies to receive passes, letting defenders work a side to slap the ball away or start into a move without catching the rock first. The last two examples occurred at least a half a dozen times in overtime win over Rhode Island, which was better than a third of the Tar Heels 17 miscues. It’s no wonder North Carolina is 3-10 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points game this season.

Dayton is a 2.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.com with total of 139. The Flyers pressure defense would appear to be a conundrum for North Carolina the way they handle the ball so loosely and the Flyers have sped to eight non-A-10 covers in a row. Dayton’s previous contest fell below stated total and they are 19-5 OVER after one or more Under’s over the last two seasons.
North Carolina doesn’t act all that thrilled about being in New York for this game, at least from the quote from coach Williams – “We put ourselves in this position because we didn't play as well as we needed to play, but then we accepted that and we tried to do the best we possibly could."

Though the season has not been up to typical Tar Heels standards, you cannot ignore the pedigree and they are 8-1 ATS in a postseason tournament games over the last two years and 11-3 ATS after covering three of their last four against the spread. UNC is 15-4 UNDER playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

The NIT championship has a 7:00 Eastern start time, with Dayton going after third title (1962-68) and North Carolina its first since 1971.

NIT Semi-Finals Preview

College basketball’s craziness continues in New York in the National Invitational Tournament. While the NCAA tourney only saw one of its top seeds advance to its Final Four, none of the four teams that were seeded at the top of their bracket moved on to Madison Square Garden, the last three all losing at home in prior round. This sets up a wide open finish for the NIT.

(2) Mississippi vs (3) Dayton 7:00E ESPN2

The Dayton Flyers (23-12, 16-15 ATS) came stumbling down the stretch with 3-6 SU record (1-7-1 ATS), being eliminated in A-10 Tournament by eventual champion Xavier. The Flyers were picked to be conference champions, but limped to 8-8 record in a league that was much tougher than expected. For whatever reason, Dayton took flight and has won and covered three games in a row by a margin of 14 points per game.

The Flyers are still playing great defense (holding three teams to 37.3 percent or less shooting), but it has been the offense that has brighten up, shooting over 48 percent in this tournament compared to 44.6 percent on the season. Dayton is 8-1 ATS after playing consecutive road games over the last three seasons.

Mississippi (24-10, 18-11 ATS) saw Arizona State fall in their very first contest in the NIT, which opened the door to three encounters at home for the Rebels. They took advantage of the situation and are running away from the competition. Ole Miss has average 88 points per game, trying to force opponents to keep up, which they have not been able to do. Terrico White and Chris Warren are living up to reputation as a guard tandem. With defense not the primary concern, the Rebels are 12-3 ATS after allowing 75 points or more in back to back contests.

Bookmaker.com had opened Ole Miss as a favorite, but the line has fallen to a one-point underdog and the total of 142 seems about right if these teams were playing 35 minutes instead of 40. This should be true up and down affair, with plenty of dunks and speed from both clubs and Dayton is 19-10 ATS versus good shooting teams making 45 percent or more of their shots. Mississippi is 11-3 ATS away from Oxford off a home win scoring 85 or more points.

(4) North Carolina vs. (2) Rhode Island 9:20E ESPN2

Both of these teams come in the second semi-final really feeling good about their prospects after winning on enemy floors in really challenging environments, where not many opposing teams escape victorious. The Tar Heels (19-16, 12-20 ATS) went into a real hornets’ nest at Alabama-Birmingham and made enough offense plays while playing great defense (UAB shot 28.8 percent) to come away with the win 60-55 as 4.5-point underdogs. Much maligned point guard Larry Drew provided steady ball-handling and leadership. While coach Roy Williams would like to believe his guard is finally figuring out what he has been preaching all year, Drew offers this reason for improved judgment and play.

I just don't want to lose," he told the Raleigh New & Observer. "I just don't want to go home. I just don't want to stop playing. I've done my share of my things wrong this season, and I've made my share of mistakes. And I just want to turn things around for myself, and the team." North Carolina is sensational 7-0 AT in road post-season tournament games the last two seasons.

Rhode Island (26-9, 12-17 ATS) is at its best when it has a three-pronged scoring attack of Delroy James, Lamonte Ulmer and Keith Cothran are making outside shots, which has been the case in the NIT. The Rams overcame a big deficit at Virginia Tech and won going away 79-72. Rhode Island is 26-15 ATS in road games after one or more Over’s.

Similar to North Carolina, this tournament has been therapeutic for Rhode Island, who started 19-3 and looked like a sure-fire NCAA team in early February. The Rams are a one-point favorite with total of 150.5, but are 2-9 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this year. The Tar Heels are in the same boat against the spread with crummy 4-13 ATS record after one or more Under’s this season.

Common opponents might be a telling factor in the nightcap with UNC 2-2 & 1-3 ATS (+3.5 point margin) and URI 3-0 & 2-1 ATS, winning by 6.6 PPG.

NIT Quarterfinals Matchups

Last night two teams punched their tickets for a trip to New York next week and two more will do so tonight in the NIT. On Tuesday, both road underdogs covered the spread, with North Carolina winning outright. Is history due to repeat itself in Blacksburg and Champaign or will the home teams stand their ground and get ready to take a bite out of the Big Apple?

Rhode Island (25-9, 11-17-3 ATS) may have worn their road uniforms this month; however they haven’t visited enemy territory in awhile. The Rams haven’t played a true road game since Mar. 6 at Massachusetts, losing 69-67 as 7.5-point favorites. In fact, Rhode Island hasn’t won a road game period, last doing so on Ground Hogs Day at LaSalle. The Rams are 24-12 ATS in non-conference contests the last three years and could use another hot shooting night from Delroy James, who pumped in a career-high 34 points against Nevada two nights ago, to help Rhode Island advance in 85-83 thriller. They are only 2-9 ATS after scoring 80 or more points this season.

Virginia Tech (25-8, 14-12-1 ATS) also had a nail-biter Monday night, finding a way to knock off Connecticut 65-63. The Hokies won in spite of Malcolm Delaney scoring six points on 2-14 shooting. Delaney still found a way to contribute with nine assists.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Virginia Tech as six-point favorite with total of 143 and the Hokies are 13-4 ATS off a close home win by three points or less, while the Rams are 2-8 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or points after 15 or more games this season. This first NIT quarterfinal is on ESPN2 at 7 Eastern with Rhode Island 11-0 UNDER against defensive teams surrendering 42 percent or less shooting percentage past the midway point of the regular season.

Dayton (21-12, 15-15-1 ATS) had an undistinguished regular season, finishing eighth in the A-10 and being bounced in the quarterfinals of the league tourney by Xavier. The Flyers can earn team redemption by winning tonight and moving on to NIT semis with upset of Illinois (21-14, 14-17-2 ATS). Dayton has played extremely well in this tournament, with a 20-point win over Illinois State and taking it to in-state partner Cincinnati 81-66 on their floor. The Flyers have locked up opponents with stifling defense, holding last two to 33.3 percent from the field. However, they are 5-18 ATS playing their second road game in three days.

Illinois was thought to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but they lost five of their last six regular season games and had two chances to knock off Ohio State in Big Ten tourney and failed to do so. Coach Bruce Weber’s squad has put aside that disappointment and is 40 minutes from making trip to Madison Square Garden, winning three of last four and not losing against the spread in those contests (3-0-1 ATS). The Fighting Illini’s win against Kent State was impressive (75-58) and they are 29-13 ATS at home off a home win by 10 points or more.

Dayton is a three-point underdog for this 9:00 Eastern contest on “the deuce” and is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.

NIT has Quality Contest for Bettors Attention

Normally, the early rounds of the NIT are about as anticipated as another episode of “Chuck “on NBC. That changes this year, at least for one game, when Davidson travels to Moraga, CA. to take on St. Mary’s in the second round no less of the National Invitational Tournament.

What has caused the uproar of having the 3,500 seat McKeon Pavilion sold out in the fastest time ever in school history, well, just like in the days of the Old West, a hotshot gunslinger is coming to town and plain folks want to see what he has and the locals want to see how he holds up against their guy, who’s returning to form after being wounded.

Davidson (27-7, 14-16-2 ATS) has Stephen Curry who took the Wildcats within one late missed three-point shot of being one of the biggest surprise Final Four teams in years, losing to eventual champion Kansas in the Elite Eight. Davidson was upset by College of Charleston in the Southern Conference tournament semi-finals, which relegated them to the NIT this season. The Wildcats simply are not as good as last year’s squad, but have continued to show to be a wise road wager since Curry stepped on campus with a 29-11-1 ATS record as visitors.

St. Mary’s (27-6, 17-12 ATS) is excited about the opportunity to play in nationally recognized contest, yet you know they believe it would be them, not Arizona, in the Sweet 16 if they would have been given the chance. The Patty Mills injury and subsequent play sent the Gaels in this direction and the best thing they can do is win the tournament to prove their point.

St. Mary’s is 8-2 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game this season and Mills looks to be at or near full strength, scoring 27 points against Washington State in NIT opener. Curry laid 32 on South Carolina, his 15th game of 30 or more this season, and relishes the competition.

“It's beyond just me and him (Mills) out there playing, “Curry said. “ I'm just excited to go out there and play and take on a new, different opponent."

While both schools easily score in the 70’s, the coaches will stress defense. Davidson holds opposing teams to 39.6 percent shooting and is 15-4 and 9-8 ATS on the road. St. Mary’s isn’t quite as good at 41.3 percent, nonetheless holds opponents to fewer points at 63.8 points per game, compared to the Wildcats 65.5.

Davidson is a four-point underdog at Bookmaker.com, with a total of 143, which is a role they have embraced, posting 11-1 ATS record as an underdog over the last two seasons. St. Mary’s is 14-1 and 6-6 ATS at home and is 7-1 against the number when a favorite or underdog of 10 or less points on home floor.

"The Steph-Patty Mills matchup, everyone is talking about it," Davidson forward Steve Rossiter said. "I just got to make sure I don't get caught watching during the game."

ESPN2 hopes people are interested enough to want to check out the action, though the 11:30 Eastern time slot might be arduous for those in the East and Midwest. Keep in mind Davidson is 18-5 ATS as a road underdog of six points or less, winning by an average of 1.6 points.

How Real Sports Bettors Spend Black Friday

While watching television this week and starting Brooke Burke withdrawal on Dancing with the Stars, I saw some ridiculous store is opening at 4:00 am Friday morning to get my business. The only retail business I’m doing at that time of the day is at a 24-hour Denny’s or Micky D’s after carousing the night before. My only goal is to wake up in time to place a few bets on football and basketball before the first game starts.

While the few remaining people that actually have a couple hundred dollars in their saving accounts and about the same left on credit card limits, goes out to spends the rest, with the knowledge the new year could bring unemployment, you like me don’t have a care in the world other than making sure the TV works, there’s beer in the fridge and three pounds of turkey your mom or relative sent home for the weekend is still cold.

Their might not be a more appropriately termed expression than playing in “the losers bracket”, on the day after Thanksgiving at 10:30 am Eastern in Orlando, in the Old Spice Basketball Classic. This follows from playing basketball ON Thanksgiving. (I wonder if you get the Old Spice gift pack swag for showing up) I’ll probably pass on that and get ready for West Virginia and Pitt in the backyard brawl and take West Virginia in big revenge game.

At 12:30 Eastern on Game Plan or if you live in the South somewhere, the Egg Bowl will be played. For those unfamiliar, this is Mississippi State vs Mississippi. In case you haven’t read or heard this, how they came up with the name Egg Bowl was from a trophy they came up that was egg-shaped to present after the game to stop fighting between the fans of each team, that’s nuts. Nothing nuts about Houston Nutt taking Ole Miss to first bowl game since some quarterback named Eli followed his old man there in Oxford. I like that the Rebels have won four in a row (3-1 ATS) and are 6-0 ATS in November the last few years.

At 2:30 Eastern, CBS turns on the way-back machine and has Don Criqui and Dan Fouts do the LSU at Arkansas contest. Both announcers are well past their prime, which this year is true of the Tigers and Hogs. Remember how were told all the speed the SEC has and this is the best conference known to mankind. If it’s so special, how come a team supposedly as powerful as LSU has only held Appalachian State, North Texas and Tulane to less than two touchdowns? I talked to a SEC scout about two weeks ago and he said Arkansas definitely doesn’t have the same talent as the last few years, but in his eyes, the Razorback players don’t play nearly as hard for Bobby (vagabond) Petrino. I know Sportsbook.com has LSU as 4.5-point favorites and I like the fact Miles minions are 12-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite.

At about 3:30E on ABC, two Big 12 teams who used to sit at the big table for the holidays, will meet when Colorado travels Lincoln to take on Nebraska. Once the Big 12 was formulated, this became the marquee matchup in the Big 12 North, with these two schools having battled for Big 8 titles in the late 1980’s and early 90’s. Both are trying to make a comeback bigger than the Sex Pistols. Nebraska is 18-point favorite in this meaningless game and I’ll bite with the Children of the Corn 18-6 ATS in home games off two straight wins against conference rivals. I’ll also back the Huskers since the defense, though still bad by Blackshirt standards, had 65 painted on them in Boulder last year on this day.

Did you know they are playing they are playing the preseason NIT championship at 4 Eastern on Friday? Can’t figure that out, but will have to keep flipping channels while opening more adult beverages and stuffing face with leftovers. (Is it me or is turkey like chips the day after Thanksgiving)

I have to admit it, I can not stand Fresno State coach Pat Hill and I’m looking forward to Boise State blasting them into the next universe commencing at 6 Eastern on ESPN also (2). Seriously, have you ever heard or seen a coach who puts more emphasis on big non-conference games than winning a league title! This is his 12th year in Raisin Country and he tied for first in the WAC twice in his tenure and nothing since 1999. Yet he gets all these accolades for beating the occasional BCS team or coming oh so close. When Hill first took over at Fresno State, he said he wanted to build a program like Florida State’s. In the end he has, mediocre. The Wussdogs have been outscored by 87 total points in their last three trips into Boise. With the Broncos 9-1 and 8-2 against the spread in their last home game and gorgeous 20-4 ATS as conference home favorite of 28 or less, I’ll back Boise.

By 9:30E, I’ll be really bloated, looking more like Micky Rourke and catch a little of the UCLA and Arizona State game. I’ll probably be asleep before the first quarter is over, but I’ll rest comfortably knowing UCLA is 10-2 UNDER after playing three straight Pac-10 games.

This whole Black Friday thing is way overrated; I’ve got a great day planned.


Writer Red Wydley made this holiday contribution.