Sugar Bowl Preview

Florida (12-0, 6-6 ATS) had bigger plans, but had to “settle” for a Sugar Bowl date with unbeaten Cincinnati (12-0, 7-5 ATS). With two national titles in three years, Florida’s motivation is questioned after the SEC title game loss. It is the last collegiate game for Tim Tebow, and he surely wants to go out on a high note. The Bearcats mental state is also unknown, having a coaching change. Hopefully the time off helped the Cincy defense recover, as they surrendered 36.5 points per game in its last four contests. It’s an entertaining matchup of Cincinnati’s prolific offense against Gators domineering defense. The Gators boast a 9-2 ATS mark when rested under sabbatical in the making Urban Meyer.

Let’s be honest, their arguably has not been a more meaningless BCS game since the system was put into place. The outcome of this game has zero bearing on what happens this year or next year as Cincinnati has Butch Jones following Brian Kelly again for his next job (Central Michigan was the other) and though the philosophies may be similar, they are different.

The Meyer saga is far different. This is a guy so conflicted internally, that one crisp practice made him feel better. His news conference needed another chair and microphone, as Meyer is walking around with two personalities and he doesn’t know which one to trust. Make no mistake, the recruits Florida has lined up for will be receiving calls from other programs asking them to reconsider since who will really be the coach at Florida not only next year, but in the future for a four year commitment.

As far as the game it, the Bearcats felt they were getting disrespected before the whole Meyer revelation came to fruition, most consider this contest a mortal lock for Gators, wanting to send their coach out to his “leave of absence” feeling much better. Granted, Cincinnati plays in the Big East compared to Florida in the SEC, but the Bearcats see they have 33 wins since 2007 and the Gators 34.

Tony Pike is a cool senior who is calm in the face of adversity (remember his performance against Pittsburgh) and the Cincinnati coaches will be intent on moving Mardy Gilyard around to allow him to make big plays. The Cinny defense wore down in the second half the season and should be refreshed with the time off and has to concentrate on taking away the dive play from Florida offense, as that usually sets the tempo. Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS when playing against team with a 75 percent or higher win percentage over the last three seasons.

The Florida seniors and juniors expected to leave are going to be SO JACKED to send their coach into “sabbatical” they might not need helmets. Defensively, make Pike throw the pigskin quickly, before plays develop to their entirety. This leaves narrower windows for completions and makes Pike less confident. With as focused as Tim Tebow figures to be, the Florida offense might be like an executioner, coldly gaining first down after first down before busting a long play for six. The Gators are 9-1 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game on the season under Meyer, winning by average 17.3 PPG.

Diamondsportsbook.com has the Gators ready to chomp as 12.5-point favorites, with total of 57.

In life it’s always interesting to wonder - what if? If Texas loses to Nebraska and Florida beats Alabama, they likely are playing for national championship and would any what has happened with the coaches occurred if they were about to face one another.

Here’s a great reason to watch the Sugar Bowl, it might be the end of an era in Gator football. Even if Meyer does return, the casualties will be too heavy to overcome next season. Can he mentally and physically continue to push himself so hard and if he delegates more, will he be satisfied with the results. Stay tuned.

3DW Line – Florida by 9

Do the Tigers have enough in the tank to outlast Florida?

There is nothing like a SEC Saturday night game in person and though a few fistfights could be started about what is the best location, Baton Rouge has no peer. LSU is grateful circumstances worked out that they host top-ranked Florida at Tiger Stadium at night, where they win over 80 percent of the time once the sun goes down.

In the collegiate sense, Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow are Bill Walsh and Joe Montana. Tebow is the perfect quarterback to run Meyer’s read option offense and though other quarterbacks are blessed with better skills in other areas just like Montana, the list is short where these two quarterbacks stand in history in their respective sports.

Florida (4-0, 2-1 ATS) is more than Tim Tebow and chances are we will find out how much more, with Tebow’s playing time an uncertainty due to concussion. During the off-week, coach Meyer and his offensive coaches have devised a separate package for sophomore backup John Brantley, which includes more I-formation sets. Brantley supposedly is more a NFL-type quarterback in throwing style and arm strength.

While many people are already drooling about the possibility of Florida and Alabama rematch in the SEC title game, think about these numbers for the Gators in the statistics.

Points allowed – 1st
Total defense -1st
Points scored – 2nd
Total offense - 3rd
Rushing yards -1st

At this point of the season, it’s nearly impossible to have a more complete Ladders resume. Much like the Florida basketball team that came back to create a legacy, this football team appears hell-bent on doing the same. Florida is 6-1 ATS the last three years as SEC road favorites.

LSU (5-0, 2-2-1 ATS) is No.4 in the country based on preseason rankings and other teams being upset, not on current body of work. Coach Les Miles is still seeking consistent play from his offense. The misfires have been a combination of QB Jordan Jefferson not hitting open receivers and the offensive line not giving running backs enough time to run up a hole for yardage. The Tigers offense is among the poorest in the country (99th in total offense) in gaining real estate.

The defense is not up to usual standards, nowhere near the Top 25 in the country, ranked 39th in allowing 321.6 yards. A schedule that has included UL-Lafayette, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State just proves how lackluster the defense has been. LSU is 5-15 ATS in home games vs. offensive teams scoring 31 or more points a game.

However, this is Saturday night in Bayou Country. A bowl of gumbo and plate of jambalaya goes down real easy with adult beverages. Bookmaker.com has LSU as seven-point underdogs with total of 44.5. The Tigers may be 0-7 ATS in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game on the season, but LSU can compete physically. Remember, a below average Tennessee team was capable of making Florida one dimensional on offense on the road, a far more talented Tiger bunch can at least do the same before the home folks. As CBS analyst Gary Danielson noticed, Jefferson is comfortable throwing the ball despite running reputation and has solid wide receivers.

No matter who is taking the snaps, Florida will attack LSU front, which given the talent, would be considered roman ‘a clef if put into literary terms (41st against the run). The Gators running game should force coach Miles to bring up more defenders, leaving better passing lanes. The Gainesville group is 13-3 ATS as a favorite and 9-2 ATS against fellow SEC members. A choppy offensive plays right into the hands of hungry Gators defense, who could stymie the Cleveland Browns, let alone LSU.

Since 1998, LSU is 4-7 and 3-8 ATS against Florida. The home team is 5-12 ATS the last 17 years and the Bengal Tigers haven’t covered as home underdogs since 2000. (0-3 ATS)

Kickoff is at 8 Eastern on CBS.

3DW Line – Florida by 8

Cash in on Conference Play

With the first weekend of October arriving, the leaves are or will be turning colors very shortly, offering a wonderful assortment of shades on the color spectrum. This time of year can also add a collection of “Benjamin Franklin’s” for the sports bettor prepared to rake in profits with the correct knowledge.

With the start of the last quarter of the year, this signifies college football going head first into conference action. Certainly, enough teams will bring in a sacrificial lamb for homecoming or between extremely challenging league games, however for the most part, it’s down and dirty with all your rivals.

This is really the coolest aspect of college football, playing within the conference. Unless there are coaching changes, most schools know what to expect from their opponents, facing them year after year and many of the best and most colorful moments the sport has to offer revolve around conference clashes. Teams might wear a special uniform in hopes of firing up the home underdog to pull the upset after losing to an opposing team for a number of years. Or gamesmanship, like Georgia’s coach Mark Richt used against Florida a couple of seasons ago, having his team run on the field after first touchdown of the game and taking penalty, only to have the favor returned in a different manner the following season by Urban Meyer, who used his three remaining time outs with under 90 seconds to play to prolong the Bulldogs 49-10 butt-whipping.

In college football, trends tend to mean more, as teams have confidence or lack thereof playing different universities with the conference. The SEC has the most head-scratching angles that seemingly come true year after year, and every conference has some of their own that tickle the fancy of those wagering on sports.

To create a realistic look at how teams perform in conference contests, went back to the year the “Blair Witch Project” was released (1999) and broke down this theme into different elements.

The first was the best and worst teams against the spread in league action. Boise State backers absolutely love the beginning of WAC play, since it’s a great time to stop worrying about health care issues and instead make and save money for those later years. The Broncos are 51-25 ATS, a delicious 67.1 percent in conference action, which includes 28-9 against the number as home chalk.

Oregon State has filled the coffers of many a supporter in Pac-10 play with 52-32 spread record, with these eager Beavers 21-10 ATS as Corvallis favorites. In the great state of Texas, a couple lesser known teams have cleaned up nicely, with TCU 44-31-1 ATS (including 26-9 ATS as home faves), mostly as favorites. The Rice Owls are spooking 48-30-1 ATS in conference play, including a FBS best 16-2-1 ATS as home underdogs.

Of course all the news is not joyful, as other teams fumble, bumble and stumble in league action. Indiana and covering Big Ten spreads is as bad a match as Lamar Odom and Khloe Kardashian, with the Hoosiers a losing 32-49 ATS. Washington’s USC upset doesn’t change the fact of over a decade of misery at 29-54-2 ATS. Other loathsome schools include Baylor at 28-50-2 ATS, Mississippi State from the SEC at 34-47-1 ATS and the always popular Fresno State, who falls apart faster than Lindsey Lohan in WAC action with 29-49-2 against the spread record.

If you compare the best winners and losers as home favorites, the list is definitely in favor of the latter. Big time programs like Alabama (9-19 ATS) and LSU (13-28 ATS) are diabolical home favorites, based on winning reputations and evil oddsmakers preying on backers appetites for playing them. The aforementioned Huskies of Washington are 3-17-1 and fellow Pac-10 partner Arizona is 4-13 ATS as home favorites. In the betting capital of the United States, Las Vegas, they have the Rebels, who have been dreadful for a long time, sporting 2-12 ATS home favorite record. North Carolina’s blue uniforms may look eye-pleasing, but a 4-13 ATS mark when they wear them as ACC faves is plain ugly.

Thank goodness for schools like Toledo at 22-11 ATS and Hawaii at 19-11 ATS, to carry the torch for quality home favorites.

Every sports bettor from the time they laid five bucks on their very first wager has been told to find the home underdog, giving them two chances to win. The resurgence of Mississippi’s football program means less chances of improving on 13-5 spread record as home underdogs at The Grove. A couple of under the wire schools thrive when catching points on campus, UAB is 11-4-2 ATS and equally sleepy Louisiana Tech is 8-3 versus the oddsmaker. If ever a university had the right nickname for this study assignment, it is Northern Illinois, whose Huskies are 8-2 ATS as home dogs. Minnesota is 6-12 ATS; however that might change with new on-campus digs when in underdog role. Baylor, well it’s going to take awhile for coach Art Briles to change mindset of team that if 9-24-1 ATS as Big 12 home team catching.

It takes the courage of a MMA fighter to want to consistently back a college football road underdog, no matter how points you receive. So many factors are working against you to win. The emotion of the home crowd, the other team being more talented as the linemaker suggests by the spread he releases and trying to avoid feeling sorry for yourselves when things don’t go your way. T. Boone Pickens may be a panjandrum who can afford to build lots of things with his money, but he can’t buy his way out of beloved Cowboys of Oklahoma State having 10-20 ATS road dog record. Connecticut has been very respectable since joining the Big East in football in 2004, but these Huskies have been collared to the porch with 3-12 ATS mark as the road pooch. Houston’s high scoring offense doesn’t play as well on the road as dogs with 7-14 ATS record. The Hoosiers of Indiana need more than a pep talk to improve 13-25 ATS road record in white uniforms. The mighty university from Monroe, LA is not cowardly, with 17-5 ATS pronouncement as visiting underdogs.

There are a few cross-over road dogs that can make cash. Texas A&M may bury Aggies fans with 8-18 ATS record as Big 12 road pups, nevertheless, they are 10-5-2 ATS as home dogs. San Jose State doesn’t gather much attention, especially with 10-20 road figure against the spread, however they are super Spartans as road favorites showing nine covers in 11 tries.

Top ranked Florida is on 6-1 ATS run as a road favorite and they will be on the hunt for more this season. The rest of college football isn’t so lucky and talented. UCLA has been about as overrated as they come in this spot with 4-16 ATS mark. Wake Forest, UTEP and Nebraska are worse than airline baggage fees at 3-8 ATS giving points to home-standing schools. The state of Idaho is a great exporter of potatoes; but the Vandals are stealing profits as road faves, failing to cover 75 percent of the time in a dozen attempts. N.C. State should avoid wearing favorite cap away from Raleigh as 3-12 ATS record proves.

Always make the time to be prepared for conference football success, because capitalism works best with honest hard work and no shortcuts to profits.

Looking ahead in rearview mirror in college football

The world is an amazingly fickle place. When you are on the rise, everybody wants to be your friend. Once you reach the top of the summit, you are revered, honored and respected. Act a little pretentious and take a calculated risk that backfires and people will turn on you faster than an elected official talking bipartisanship.

That’s what seems to being happening to Urban Meyer at Florida, after the franchise, Tim Tebow, was blown up and suffered concussion at Kentucky. The media has decided to crush Meyer for having Tebow in a game that was 31-7 and the Wildcats showing no inclination of being any closer. Of course if the left side of the Florida line blocks and doesn’t expose “Superman” to big hit or Tebow’s own teammate’s knee doesn’t happen to be there to cause the trauma, all of this not a national sports story.

Like any good coach, Meyer had again seen a sluggish second half offense and undoubtedly wanted to give his first-teamers a chance to work out rough spots, for the eventually of actually having to play a full 60 minute game (see Penn State). Take off the 20-20 after-the-fact glasses and it was nothing more than bad luck Tebow was hurt. Besides let’s be honest, most of these scribes and talking heads love to see their names in more read areas to enhance reputation, than Tebow’s actual health.

For as many years as Joe Paterno has coached at Penn State, he as much as anyone should know playing bad opponents will improve team’s record; however will not prepare a team for eventual tough opposition. Iowa’s superior mental toughness (down 10-0 on the road) and more physical style started to take command in the second quarter and the Nittany Lions had no point of reference to turn the tide. StatFox had an angle that I’d never seen before and it rang true again. Penn State still might go on a win a beleaguered Big Ten, but they are 0-15 ATS against teams that hold opposing teams to 12 or fewer points.

California showed the courage of the “cowardly lion” from the Wizard of Oz at Oregon. Forget all the nonsense of look ahead to USC or Oregon just had hot day, these Bears by all appearances invoked the “Q” word and could have used someone like former Duck LeGarrette Blount, because at least he cared about losing. The type of loss Cal suffered (524 to 207 total yards) is hard to wash off and they are 3-7 ATS after Oregon. These Bears will have to hope there is no place like home against the Trojans.

One person and team that showed intestinal fortitude was Jimmy Clausen and Notre Dame. Starting Friday, reports were starting to emerge Clausen wasn’t nearly as good to go as advertised. Just minutes before the game, backup QB Dayne Crist was caught on camera warming up, which was a strong indicator Clausen wasn’t near 100 percent. The junior Irish signal caller was laboring with mechanics and Charlie Weis sent in a very effective package with Crist and Golden Tate in building 17-7 lead. Purdue did determine Notre Dame wasn’t going to really test them thru the air and shutoff the Irish offense and took the lead 21-17 with just over 3:30 minutes to play. Clausen strapped on the helmet, encouraged his team that they had to execute and he would take of the rest no matter if he was throwing on one foot. Clausen and the Irish showed grit in engineering game winning drive and were helped by highly questionable Purdue timeout with Notre Dame scrambling on third and goal. Are the Irish a great team or a good bet? Neither seems to be the case, but they don’t have another true road game until Nov. 14 (Washington State in San Antonio on Oct.31) and the way the first month has played out, it’s about winning and gathering styles points later.

Conference USA has a bevy of unfortunate teams, but Southern Miss and Houston are players. The Eagles pushed unbeaten Kansas to the limit at their place. Southern Miss was tied at 28 heading into fourth quarter as 11.5-point underdogs and lost by a touchdown. The stats proved how competitive the Eagles were, outgained just 433-395. They have good running game with Damion Fletcher and QB Austin Davis can chuck it around to big, strong wide receivers. They will have two difficult road trips to Houston and East Carolina, nonetheless, will be capable of winning both.

C-USA finally has respectable BCS-crasher somebody will talk about. Tulsa was 7-0 last year, but was thought of as nice story, not legit BCS material. Houston is 3-0, with a pair of Big 12 conquests. The spine-tingling comeback over Texas Tech before a record crowd at Houston has the Cougs in the Top 25 and BCS schools potentially looking for a new coach reading up on coach Kevin Sumlin. If the Cougars could conquer Mississippi State on the road in under two weeks, that leaves Southern Miss and at Tulsa as remaining visible road blocks.

Quick hits – The combination of Adam Webber and Eric Decker signifies that Minnesota has play on potential against Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State in the coming weeks. –Alabama is the most impressive team in the country and it is going to be nearly impossible to bet against them even as oddsmakers load the points on their opponents the next month. - So much for Virginia Tech not being a considerable factor in the ACC, after making Miami look like Duke in 31-7 thrashing. It will be interesting to see what the Hurricanes have left in the tank for Oklahoma this week as almost a touchdown home underdog. – The Ron Zook era might be coming to a close in Illinois. It won’t happen this year, but a lifeless Illinois team’s best performance was woofing at Ohio State BEFORE the game. Juice Williams never improved after Rose Bowl season. The Zookers are 15-32 SU if you take out FCS games in his tenure and might be favored just three more times this season.