Big 12 Preview

b>2010 BIG 12 CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

They gained notoriety as the ‘Sure We Cheat’ (SWC) league in the 1970’s. They then evolved into the Big 8 Conference before expanding into the Big 12. Where they go from here, no one knows.

What we know for sure is the Big 12 Conference is back for another college football season in 2010. And we can also likely expect another lackluster performance from this loop come bowl time.

Granted, Texas made it to the BCS championship game last year, a game in which Oklahoma has made four appearances this past decade. But the truth of the matter is unless the Big12 can improve on its blasé 39-38 SU and 32-45 ATS mark in bowl games since 2000, they will likely go down as another also-ran major conference that continues to shoot itself in the foot thanks to lackluster play on the defensive side of the ball.

In closing, despite the defensive deficiencies of the rest of the conference, beware of the Sooners. Other than the game with Texas, they figure to be double-digit favorites in every other contest this season. Remember, the last time Bob Stoops lost five games in the same season his team went on to go 13-0 and win a national championship (2000).

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

North Division

COLORADO – *9 / 7

TEAM THEME: ROCKY MOUNTAIN LOW
When a coach goes just 10-22 in league play and his team finishes LAST in total conference offense two years running, one would figure a coaching change is in order. Not in Boulder. The Buffaloes rehired Dan Hawkins because they could not afford the cost of a buyout and a rehire. Talk about a sign of the times! The only team in the Big 12 not to use a spread offense, Colorado will turn to an offensive line that returns all five starters. A soft seven-game home schedule, only four true road games, revenge aplenty and an over-abundance of playing time for true freshman over the last three seasons, could actually find the Buffaloes roaming in a minor bowl. If not, the only sign you may see around the Boulder area is one that says ‘For Sale’ – no matter what the cost.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Kansas (11/6)

IOWA STATE – *8 / 5

TEAM THEME: PEEPING PAUL
When newly-hired HC Paul Rhoads first met with the team, he told them that they were going to win a bowl game in 2009. Did Paul see something nobody else did? After all, the Cyclones had gone 2-10 in 2008 and had not won a bowl game since 2004. Despite an offense that ranked last in the Big 12 in 2009, Rhoads was true to his word as an Insight Bowl victory over Minnesota capped off a surprising 7-6 season. The offensive numbers should improve in 2010 as eight starters return to Ames, including QB Austen Arnuad. Defensively, only five starters are back in the mix but the linebacking unit – the strength of the defense – returns three starters including tackling machine, Jesse Smith. Here’s some scholarly advice for Rhoads: with nine winning teams and eight bowlers on the docket, we suggest you take a long look at the schedule before making any promises.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Nebraska (11/6)

KANSAS – 8 / 7

TEAM THEME: WEIGHT AND SEE
After a mistreatment allegation, the big man has left the campus as Mark Mangino’s eight-year stint in Lawrence comes to an abrupt end. New HC Turner Gill knows he’ll have some big pants to fill and the former Nebraska star will bring along some heavy-hitting coordinators in Chuck Long and Carl Torbush. Star QB Todd Reesing and his 11,194 total yards and 90 TD’s have also departed. Not to worry. Gill turned a dormant Buffalo program into a conference champion in three years. Imagine what he could do with a team that has won 25 games over the past three seasons and returns 15 starters, including an entire offensive line. We realize the Big 12 is a large leap from the MAC but we also recall that Gill is a perfect 20-0 versus the conference in his playing days as a star QB. Been there – done that!
PASS

KANSAS STATE – 5 / 7

TEAM THEME: PHASE TWO, YEAR TWO
Kansas State’s silver-haired HC Bill Snyder proved age is only a number when he guided the 2009 Wildcats to bowl-eligible status. After a 3-year hiatus, the 70-year old Snyder returned to the Manhattan sidelines and looked to shore up a defense that was scorched for over 36 PPG, 479 YPG and 5.2 YPC the previous season. And shore up he did. The ‘Cats held seven opponents to under 20 points as the defense improved by 13 PPG and an incredible 139 YPG while allowing just 3.5 YPC. The combination of a now well-fortified defense (seven returning starters), a top-notch RB in Daniel Thomas (the Big 12 newcomer of the year) and a favorable early schedule (first true road game not until mid-October) holds promise for 2010. Old habits never die.
PLAY ON: vs. Oklahoma St (10/30)

MISSOURI – *8 / 8

TEAM THEME: CAT SCRATCH FEVER
Expect a big year from Missouri in 2010. Many believe that following their breakout season in 2007 (12-2), Gary Pinkel recruited a slew of talent – and that investment is about to pay some dividends. Not only do the Tigers return eight starters on each side of the ball, but 30 of the 44 players on the season-ending two-deep roster were either freshmen or sophomores – the second most in the nation last year. A season opening five-game schedule that includes three home games against FBS foes with a combined 8-28 record, a fourth home game against McNeese State and a neutral site match-up with 3-9 Illinois, should help these Tigers catch their tail early. If the Cats are going to have the year we think they’ll have, a 5-0 start is critical with only two of the season’s final seven games at home, including trips to Lincoln and Lubbock. Nonetheless, we’ll take the bait.
PLAY ON: vs. Nebraska (10/30)

NEBRASKA – *10 / 7

TEAM THEME: TWO YEARS GONE BY
Have the Huskers turned the corner? Bearing in mind they ranked No. 116 in scoring defense in 2007 (37.9 PPG) – the year before HC Bo Pelini arrived – and No. 1 last season (10.4 PPG), the answer is a resounding yes. Also consider they were 1-20 SU versus Top 20 ranked teams before a promising 3-2 showing last season. The former NFL assistant also has the Kids of the Corn playing their best ball late in the season, posting a stout 9-2 record from November out, including 7-1 in November alone (Bill’s Callahan’s previous 4-year regime only won a total of six November contests). 17 returning starters, with every ball carrier back in the mix and a favorable schedule that includes Texas at home and is sans Oklahoma, makes Nebraska worthy of a BCS futures play. Is that Springsteen’s ‘Glory Days’ we hear playing in those Lincoln cornfields?
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Colorado (11/26)

South Division

BAYLOR – *7 / 5

TEAM THEME: LET’S GET PHYSICAL
Perhaps no team in the land figures to benefit more from the return of a key player from injury than Baylor, as star QB Robert Griffin III re-claims his starting spot after tearing an ACL in Game Three last season. After a promising 2-1 start, the Bears went into hibernation (2-7) when Griffin went down to stay. HC Art Briles, however, has more than the return of his star on his mind as he looks to address a defense that allowed over 400 YPG in 2009. After the spring game, Briles noted, “Those guys are strong, fast, mean and tough… that’s what they need to be. They need to be aggressive and physical with a bad temper. That’s what we have to get to and that’s the way we have to play, because in the Big 12 South if you’re friendly and nice, you’re going to have a long season.” If RG3 can stay healthy and Briles can impose his will, these Bears will be anything but average.
PASS

OKLAHOMA – *10 / 6

TEAM THEME: KEEPING UP WITH THE JONESES
Despite losing three players in the first four picks of this year’s NFL draft – including Heisman trophy winner and all-time NCAA passing efficiency leader Sam Bradford – 23 full or part-time starters return. Included is SO QB Landry Jones, who led the nation’s freshman QBs in passing yards (3,198) and TD passes (26) last season. His yardage figure was also an OU record, breaking the mark set by Bradford in 2007. Expect Jones to surpass those numbers this season as all-everything RB DeMarco Murray and record-setting WR Ryan Broyles stay onboard the Sooner Schooner in 2010. Whether by land or air, the OU attack shouldn’t miss a beat as Jones and company figure to keep up with the Bradfords. Remember, OU faced the 2nd toughest schedule in the land in 2009 and four of its five losses were by a total of 12 points.
PLAY ON: vs. Texas Tech (11/13)

OKLAHOMA STATE – 6 / 4

TEAM THEME: “O”, NO
It’s not often a 9-win season is considered a bummer. That may have been the case in Stillwater last season, though, when the Cowboys were shut out in their season finale at rival Oklahoma and then held to seven points in a bowl loss to Ole Miss. When the dust settled, a highly-touted, veteran offense saw their production fall 13 points and 120 YPG as injuries, player suspensions and being a ‘marked team’ finally took its toll. The ‘D’ was actually a bright spot last year but with only four starters back in the mix, HC Mike Gundy realizes he may have to win a few shootouts. Enter OC Dana Holgorsen. He brings his playbook from Houston where his offense was tops in the nation last season. Star RB Kendall Hunter is back to tote the pigskin but untested 26-year old JR QB Brandon Weeden takes over for Zac Robinson. It’s time to man up, ‘Boys!
PASS

TEXAS – 6 / 7

TEAM THEME: BIG (12) BULLIES
The Horns were a shoulder-injury short of winning a national championship last season. When QB Colt McCoy went down in the BCS title game, so did Texas’ hopes of beating Alabama. McCoy is off to the NFL and in steps Garrett Gilbert to direct an attack that will be moving away from the spread offense to more of a running game in 2010. This move will take some pressure off Gilbert, the 2008 High School Player of the Year, and hopefully improve a ground game that averaged a mere 148 YPG – their worst since 2002. No such adjustments are needed on the defensive front where the UT rush defense held opponents to a nation-low 72 YPG on the ground. Eight bowlers do roam this year’s schedule but six of those come from the Big 12 where the Horns are 16-1 SU over the last two seasons. The first two games in October will likely decide their fate.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Texas Tech (9/18)

TEXAS A&M – *6 / 9

TEAM THEME: WHO STOPS J.J.?
The Jerrod Johnson show returns to College Station for its final season and it may draw a bigger audience in these parts than ‘Who shot J.R.?’ Johnson, a second-team all Big 12 performer, keyed the 5th best offense in the land by throwing for a school record 3,217 yards and 28 TD’s while adding another 455 yards on the ground. He saved his best performance for Texas, throwing for 342 yards and rushing for 97 more. J.J. is joined by a cast of kids that formed the youngest roster in the nation last year. While the offense will take the lead role, it’s imperative for the defense to add some support. Mike Sherman will rely on new DC Tim DeRuyter to shore up a stop unit that ranked 105th in the nation. DeRuyter, who led Air Force to a No. 11 team defense ranking last season, will have eight starters to work with as he incorporates his 3-4 scheme. With a season-ender at Texas, the finale should be scintillating.
PASS

TEXAS TECH – *8 / 6

TEAM THEME: JAMES GANG
With Craig and Adam James’ approval, Tommy Tuberville steps in to take over for Mike Leach, in one of the major coaching moves in Division 1 this season. After getting unceremoniously dumped by Auburn, Tuberville now walks into the Lubbock fire. Leach won 84 games in his 10 seasons with Tech – and along with Texas and Oklahoma, formed the winningest trio of teams in the nation from the same conference over the last three seasons (276 victories). Tuberville welcomes back 14 returning starters, including QB Taylor Potts. The word, though, is the QB job is open between Taylor and fan favorite Steven Sheffield (rumor has it that whoever completes more passes to Adam in the spring will likely get the nod). Whomever Tuberville decides on, he better make sure of one thing: he leads the Raiders to a bowl – ‘cause the fans sure got used to it with Leach.
PLAY ON: vs. Houston (11/27) – *KEY as dog

College Football Thoughts

College football as we presently know it is about to change. When earlier reports of the Big 10 (11), likely to expand beyond the expanses of its name again, this time everyone took it very seriously. The Big Ten Network has become a cash cow only a few would have imagined at its inception. That forced the SEC (with its better overall sports programs) to jump into bed with ESPN and other entities to “keep up with the Jones”.

The Big Ten has always thought its importance was more than everyone else’s and targeted Texas and other Big 12 schools, like that conference was from the local Goodwill and they could pick and choose what they wanted and everyone would idly sit by and wait and see what the Big Ten wanted to do.

That might have worked 50 years ago, no more. The Pac-10 went on the aggressive and word leaked this past week they wanted half the teams from the Big 12, quickly making it the Little Six.

Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Colorado would join Arizona and Arizona State in league that could be known as – The 16 Pac(k) Conference. (Sponsored by Bud Light of course) While A&M has a huge ego problem about following the Longhorns lead, the fact is they would as big a non-factor in the SEC as Arkansas has become.

This places the Big 12 in a world of hurt. Commissioner Dan Beebe is trying to rectify the situation by keeping Texas, since they are the linchpin; however he seems less inclined to force their hand knowing the Longhorns can do about whatever they want. If the six Big 12 schools go, Missouri might be forced to go to go to the new Big 12 since the previous conference is now the Big 10 and dwindling. (Can you follow this?)

For sports bettors, this will really turn the college sports world upside down. The haves and have not’s will further separate in this revised two class system. Much like the middle class of our country heading downward, the same will be true of sports programs that are presently average. What chance would an Arizona or Arizona State have in football with the Longhorns, Sooners and to a lesser degree the Cowboys from Okie State in the same division? Yes they would have more money, with that satisfaction lasting maybe three years, but what about five seasons of 4-5 to 2-7, with faltering attendance and the revenue gains start going backwards?

And what about the Big 12, if they would manage to survive, Beebe would have to do a Mike Tranghese, the former commish of the Big East and go do some raiding of his own. That might include a quasi- Southwest Conference division of the Big 12, chasing down TCU, Houston, Rice, and SMU and adding possibly Memphis (for basketball purposes) to go along with Kansas, K-State, Baylor and Iowa State.

And what about Notre Dame? The smartest suggestion I’ve seen is for the Big Ten to invite the Irish in all other sports but football. Let them share the money (double-dipping) while keeping their independence in football as long as they add one Big Ten football game per year until their NBC contract expires, essentially making them a full-fledged member by 2015.

While it is true more than enough college football bettors will just want to see a number assigned to any matchup and give a you know what about expansion or reduction, or whatever happens, it will impact many conferences and teams positively and negatively.

Just remember, this is all about MONEY. If you ever hear anybody say it’s not fair to the student-athlete foe this or that get that person’s name and send them an email telling them you are busting them as liars. Much like Wall Street, this only about the cash and while it seems important now, like all money, after awhile it’s just not enough.

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Got a good laugh about defending national champion Alabama asking the SEC to review the schedules of other teams and politely move a few conference games around so the Crimson Tide doesn’t have to play six teams coming off a bye week. I have nothing against Alabama, but that is WEAK.

NCAA Tournament Wagering Summation

Whew, what a four days of college basketball. Similar to the Food Network’s Man vs. Food, in this case it was Man vs. Brackets and the Brackets won with a 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th seed all in the Sweet 16. If the last couple of tournaments have been a little chalky, things evened out over time the last four days.

CBS might have to do an extended remake of Jennifer Hudson’s new version of “One shining moment” for this tournament with all the buzzer beaters and tight contests. A very lucky 13 of the 33 games played were decided by four points or less. Only eight of the seeds listed four or higher made it to their respective regions. Talk about survive and advance!

While this is all exciting stuff, how did sports bettors do? Like always, results are mixed depending on the individual, however if underdogs were one’s preference, you likely did fairly well. If favorites were played more frequently, might be time to check with your sports books reload bonus program.

Favorites are 31-18 SU for the entire tournament, with 23-26 ATS record. The first round was especially tough on them with 13-20 ATS mark. They did come back over the weekend with 10-6 ATS record.

As is the case each year, the favorite isn’t always the higher seed. To date those teams with the lower numbers assigned them by the tournament committee are 33-15 and 23-25 ATS.
Further breaking down the side action, interesting developments occurred. Favorites that were favored by 7.5 or more moved forward with 14-1 record, with the shocking loss of the top overall team Kansas being the lone exception. Backing these clubs was a losing proposition however with a 7-8 spread record.

Speaking of losing, that’s exactly what short favorites have done thru two rounds. Teams favored by four points or less were 9-14 SU and dastardly 8-15 ATS. This was particularly true in the first round with only five victories and 4-11 ATS record.

The Big East was supposed to be the best conference this season and was thought to be more than tested for this event after facing each other all year. Only two teams have made the Sweet 16 and the league is 6-6 and 5-7 ATS to this juncture.

The Big 12 was listed behind the Big East as a power conference and was thought to have no less than three teams playing this next weekend. However, with the Jayhawks vanquished, only Kansas State and Baylor moved on and the conference is 5-7 ATS to date.

The power conference has been the Big Ten with three entrants and 7-2 record (4-5 ATS).

The biggest winner in a manner of speaking in the so-called mid-major, with Butler, St. Mary’s and Northern Iowa all advancing and not coincidently, all three won their conference tournaments. Cornell might be the first Ivy League team in the Sweet 16 in 31 years, but after two blowouts wins as underdogs, this is serious club.

Turning to the total, the Under has been the choice play at 27-22 overall. That was accomplished in the first round with 19-14 Under mark. Games that closed over 140 were 13-11 Under, while contests that went off below 130 points were 7-6 Under.

Get started on your homework early for the next round of games beginning Thursday.

Big Games in Big 12 and Big East

In many ways, postseason tournaments are a silly exercise, where three or four days of basketball can wipe away or enhance four months of toiling for players and coaches. However, in the Big 12 and Big East, at least this season, all four nationally ranked teams are already going to the Big Dance and this one is for honor and recognition, played out in prime time on ESPN. It promises to be quite a Saturday night.

Sunflower state battle

The sunflower might be a beautiful delicate flower, which will be in direct contrast to the bragging rights one final time (maybe), as Kansas and Kansas State meet for the Big 12 title in Kansas City.

The Jayhawks are the top team in the land and have owned their state partner, with 30-2 and 22-10 ATS record dating back to 1997. Kansas won both games this season, but Kansas State is not worrying about the past.

“That’s our goal (winning the Big 12 championship) right now,” said Kansas State guard Jacob Pullen, who’s averaging a team-leading 19.1 points. “We have the opportunity in front of us.” The Wildcats just missed knocking off Kansas at Manhattan, falling 81-79 in overtime as four point underdogs.

Kansas State has handled two good clubs in downing Oklahoma State and Baylor in this tournament and is 15-3 and 10-4 ATS after covering the spread this season. K-State coach Frank Martin is cautiously optimistic about this contest.

“I’ve got to think that it’s going to be the best environment of any conference championship game in the country,” Martin said. “I just hope we play well, because if not, it might be a long day against those guys.” His squad is 15-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Kansas has to be one CBS analyst Clark Kellogg’s favorite teams since he can use one of his favorite pet words “spurtability”. The Jayhawks can look disinterested, matching baskets and quicker than Manny Pacquiao jab, the Jayhawks will run off eight straight points to take control, which is basically how they’ve handled both Texas Tech and Texas A&M. Kansas earned just their fourth cover in 13 tries in win over Aggies.

The Jayhawks are 5.5-point favorites according to Bookmaker.com with total of 147.5 and the favorite is 18-6 ATS, with the last six bitter battles producing 5-1 OVER mark. ESPN has the Big 12 title game between these Top 10 teams at 6:00 Eastern.

Cream to the top in Big Apple

The Big East Tournament has turned into lunacy the last several years with a myriad of upsets and unusual happenings, but in the end, it seems the best teams always emerge in the finals. Georgetown has gotten what it needs from its best three players to advance to this point at Madison Square Garden. Greg Monroe (serious player of the tourney candidate), Chris Wright and Austin Freeman have led the charge for the eighth-seeded Hoyas, who are 5-0 SU and ATS at neutral sites this season.

West Virginia is chasing a number of factors Saturday night. The Mountaineers were the only top four seed to advance in this tournament and rumors are circulating a Big East title might push them up to No.1 seed depending on how everything shakes out. West Virginia has never won this tournament and the players comprehend the significance.

“It would mean the world to me, just because it would be the first one, and I was part of the team,” star forward Da’Sean Butler said. “It would be something special.” The Mountaineers have yet to lose in tourney action this season with 5-0 record, but are 2-3 ATS.

West Virginia is hopeful peculiar spread run continues, at least for the short term. Coach Bob Huggins squad is 6-8 ATS in last 14 games and has covered two and failed to cover two in blocks since Jan. 26. The Teers have not covered their last two games and hopes things change to their benefit this time around.

West Virginia has won and covered previous two meetings, but lost to G-Town 72-55 in the semi-finals in this event in 2008. The Mountaineers played for the title in 2005, before falling to Syracuse. Georgetown is making third appearance in the final game in four years and 13th overall in its 30-year history.

“At the end of the day, now it’s the championship game,” Monroe said. “I know as a team we came here to win this tournament, and I mean, (Saturday) the lights are going to be on. We have to be prepared to play.”

The Hoyas are two-point underdogs with total of 132.5, with the tipoff set for just after 9:00 Eastern.

Conference Tourney Betting Info -You Gotta Know

Don't have a lot of time to read thru all the information relating to conference tournament games and matchups. Well here is a brief look ahead at 12 tourneys, with concise, pointed info and few angles to consider, along with who should be playing in the title games from each conference. It's worth the time to take a few minutes to get your game face on.

Conference USA Preview – March 10-13

It’s a brave new world in C-USA as they prepare for their 15th postseason tourney. UTEP is the regular season champion and will look to unseat Memphis, who has won the last four tournaments. In fact, if anyone other than the Tigers’ wins, it would be just the second different team to win, with all other previous champions in other leagues. UTEP is the favorite, as they are suffered just one conference loss all year and have first Top 25 ranking since 1992. The Miners are also 9-3 and 8-4 ATS away from El Paso.

UAB and Memphis are legitimate threats, the Blazers 11-4 SU away from home and the Tigers have pedigree and experience, plus coach Josh Pastner will talk up tradition. Marshall has the size (6’11 Lee Whiteside) and three-point shooting ability to be dangerous, having won eight of last nine and are 9-3 ATS as visitors. The venue change should benefit Tulsa, who will be playing before home town fans. Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh are dynamic duo. Of the teams below the top five, only Southern Miss looks capable. The Golden Eagles are 12-3 ATS away and 10-3 ATS as underdogs, however have only three wins.

Quarterfinals underdogs are 9-3 ATS, the last three years.

Prediction: UTEP vs Memphis final

Championship -11:30ET, CBS

Pacific 10 Preview - March 10-13

This conference has enjoyed all the appeal of a republican’s view of President Obama’s health care plan. The league was supposed to be down and didn’t even meet those substandard expectations this season. California has the best overall talent and is the top seed and has never won this event, finishing second in 2006. USC will be on the sidelines with suspension, meaning the 8 vs. 9 winner draws the Bears. Washington was expected to compete for title, but proved to be too young and senior Quincy Pondexter did not enjoy stellar senior season. The Huskies were dogs on the road with 4-7 SU and ATS mark.

Arizona State finished second in the league, thanks to great coaching by Herb Sendek, with limited ability and could make title game on smarts and guile, something lacking in this conference. Honestly, it’s hard to make a case for any other teams and the crowds are usually sparse at the Staples Center when the Pac-10 has four or five good teams, which means this could resemble a New Jersey Nets home game. Best advice here is play underdogs, as many of the teams as evenly matched (stink).

Favorites of three to six points are on a run of 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in the Pac 10 Tournament.

Prediction: California and Washington final

Championship -6:00ET, CBS

Big 12 Preview - March 10-13

The 2010 tournament returns to original location, Kansas City, with a stacked field. Coach Bill Self’s club is the betting choice and they have been a consistent winner all season. This is not a great Kansas team (the one that won the title two years ago was better with more mature players), however that might be good enough in 2010. The scariest aspect of backing the Jayhawks is they have continually not buried teams. The 9-2 SU road record is impressive, however winning by 9.9 points per game is not.

Who can knock off Kansas? Baylor has quickness and strong front court, Missouri can score in bunches with pressing defense and Texas A&M has G Donald Sloan and adequate players in the paint. Oklahoma State has picked off the Jayhawks and has G James Anderson and other Cowboys’ sharp-shooters whom are treacherous. Texas has suffered too many injuries and still lacks guards to matter much. This leaves Kansas State, who has all the attributes to take down the Jayhawks, including great guard play. This should be fabulous tournament with several close games, lending value to underdogs, who could be better than average wagers.

Underdogs of six points or more are 37-21 ATS since 2000.

Prediction: Kansas vs. Baylor in final

Championship -6:00ET, ESPN

MAC Preview – Mar. 7, 10-13

Kent State has won this tournament four times since 2001 and will among the favorites again. The Golden Flashes have the mental makeup to win tight tilts and have blown out their fair share of MAC teams and are 5-1 SU and ATS as road favorites. The main competition figures to be division partner Akron, who is the defending champion. The Zips have plenty of zip and are 10-2 and 6-4 ATS off a spread loss. The West Division is strictly generic by comparison, however at least Central Michigan drew the higher seed as champ.

The first four games were played at higher seeded home sites this past Sunday and those winners will have the benefit of momentum, rest and preparation taking on teams at neutral site of Cleveland. Ohio U. and Buffalo can make noise being the top two scoring teams and Ball State is the best defensive team, holding opponents to 40 percent shooting. Nonetheless, Kent State and Akron have been so dominant this season, it’s difficult to look anywhere else for championship matchup.

The title tilt favorite is 9-3 SU and ATS and the SU winner is 12-0 ATS.

Prediction: Kent State vs. Akron in final

Championship -6:00ET, ESPN2

Mountain West Preview - March 10-13

The last few Mountain West tournaments have been little lackluster, however this 2010 version is setting up to be very competitive, as long as the chalk wins. New Mexico and BYU are the class the conference, both being ranked natioanlly the last seven weeks of the season. The Lobos are 11-2 and 7-4-1 ATS on the road and the Cougars are 13-3 and 11-5 ATS in same situation, winning by over 12 points per game. Just be careful with these two teams in the quarter-finals, as MWC favorites of nine or more an ordinary 8-7 ATS since 2002.

UNLV is again the host, which has been tremendous edge, emerging victorious three times and finishing second two other times on their home floor in seven years. San Diego State is also a threat because of their tenacious defense, allowing the fewest points in the conference. Difficult to imagine the Aztecs advancing far if they get in tight game, being last in the league in free throw shooting at just over 60 percent.

Favorites have done well in recent MWC tourneys, going 7-1 SU and ATS over the last three years in the semi-finals and title games.

Prediction: New Mexico and Las Vegas in final

Championship -7:00ET, Versus

Big East Preview - March 9-13

For the second straight season, all 16 members of the Big East will participate in this gala event. The first day will have the bottom eight teams in action and at least from talent perspective, Connecticut and Seton Hall are the best, but both have to play at faster pace to succeed. The four winners of the opening day move on to face seeds 5 thru 8 and this grouping is packing with some real quality. Though they might not be the most talented, Marquette and Notre Dame are playing the best, with the Golden Eagles 9-2 and 8-3 ATS and the Fighting Irish on 7-2 ATS run out.

In the quarterfinals, the heavyweights arrive and though it seems unlikely any in this group would lose, at least one underdog has won outright on average over the last dozen years. Let’s move Syracuse and Pittsburgh to semis, based on ability and Pitt’s exceptional record in March in New York. Looking for an upset, think Villanova, who is 2-3 in last five outings and 3-7 ATS since February.

This tournament has often seen one team make improbable run the last several years and only once has a team won back to back since 2000, which should eliminate Louisville. Favorites of seven or less are 9-2 SU and ATS the first two days.

Prediction: Syracuse and Pittsburgh in final

Championship -9:00ET, ESPN

Big West Preview – March 10-13

Many may not know or remember the Big West has held this annual event every year since 1976. One dependable aspect of this conference is 11 of the last 13 years, the champion or co-champion of the regular season has appeared in the championship game. That should mean UC-Santa Barbara or Pacific or both have a great chance to wind up playing for NCAA automatic bid. Cal-State Fullerton is the league’s top scoring team and is 8-3 ATS as a visitor, however lost all four games to the top two teams.

UC-Davis is up and down and their best trait is being 11-5 ATS against Big West foes. This competition will again be held in Anaheim. The previous five years, it’s been like nearby Disneyland for total players. Those on the UNDER are 23-9, 73.5 percent, with all the games coming in a full four points below the oddsmakers average total in games played.

This Big West bash is known for being competitive, as only 10 matchups have registered above 7.5-point spread in recent years and though the underdog is laughable 1-9, they are potent 8-2 ATS.

Prediction: UCSB and Pacific in final

Championship - 8:00ET, ESPN2

WAC Preview – March 11-13

Eight teams will be in Reno, NV for the WAC conference tournament. The University of Nevada finished tied for second in the league and will have the advantage of playing on their home floor. Utah State is the definite favorite as the league champion and was 11-5 ATS in conference action. Interestingly, all the other squads facing off in upstate Nevada are right around or above .500 against the spread, with the exception of the Wolf Pack who are 6-10 ATS. This could make underdogs a play with history to back it up.

Over the previous four tourneys, dogs have had plenty of bite with a 20-9 ATS record and the OVER has also been a strong play at 21-10. Beyond the top four seeds, Fresno State has the most talent, however difficult to throw much support their way since they are 3-12 SU as visitors. No. 4 Louisiana Tech will have chance to take down Utah State in semis should they get that far, having earned a split and covering both meetings. Nevada will have the home court edge over New Mexico State and last week won and covered over the Aggies. Nevada finished second to Utah State in last year’s tournament at the same Lawler Events Center and this could be the third meeting in five years with these same two schools.

Prediction: Nevada and Utah State in final

Championship -10:00ET, ESPN2

SEC Preview – March 11-14

This year’s SEC Tournament is like many from the past, with Kentucky a decided favorite as the top seed. Mississippi State also nabs a co-No.1 placement having won the SEC West. This year’s competition will still have a vast number of Wildcats fans in attendance, but it will also have a flavor of those from the Volunteer State, being played at the Sommet Center in Nashville, where Vanderbilt and Tennessee will be well represented.

The lesser teams in the conference are all obviously flawed, yet other than LSU, all have at least one positive attribute that makes them a dangerous dog. South Carolina has Devan Downey, Georgia is athletic (1-12 away from home however), Auburn and Arkansas are capable of scoring outbursts and Alabama is second in the conference in fewest points allowed. If any of these teams make the quarterfinals, consider them since underdogs are 8-3 ATS this round.

This still figures to be the Kentucky Invitational and teams in the title game are 8-1 UNDER with dog 5-3-1 ATS.

Prediction: Kentucky and Vanderbilt in final

Championship -1:00ET, ABC

Atlantic 10 Preview – March 9, 12-14

The A-10 tourney is known for mini-runs as only three teams (’97 St. Joseph’s, ’99 Rhode Island and ’03 Dayton) have not won consecutive championships or two of three since 1991. This year’s tournament could be one of the most exciting ever, with a number of strong teams at the top and the second level clubs capable of stringing together a number of wins. All season, two-time defending A-10 postseason champ Temple, Xavier and Richmond have shown to be the class of the conference. St. Louis, Charlotte and Rhode Island have all proven they can win a segment of games, with the Rams ability to score (2nd in the A-10) and winning road record (9-6) and the Billikens second in points allowed in the league.

The best teams will of course be favored and it could be profitable to watch them in the right situation, as double digit favorites are 9-0 and 7-2 ATS. The first round is always at the home higher seed and the home-standing favorite of seven or less points is 18-4 and 17-5 ATS. Once they get to Atlantic City, all bets are off (pun intended) and Temple and Richmond rematch from Feb. 6 (Spiders won 71-54) seems like a possibility.

Prediction: Temple and Richmond in final

Championship -1:00ET, CBS

ACC Preview – March 11-14

The Atlantic Coast Conference was created in 1953 and starting one year later, the ACC held a men’s postseason tournament, making it the one all others yearn to have for prestige and history. It has not been a banner year for the ACC, with a number of good squads, with just two standing above the fray. Duke and Maryland have been the finest, yet no team among the 12 members had a winning road record in conference. The Terps are 8-5 and 8-4 ATS on the road overall and the Blue Devils are 9-5 and 7-6-1 ATS in same spot.

The most intriguing team with the most to gain is North Carolina, who was playing better of late (until Duke massacre) and has to win out in order to defend their NCAA title. The other bottom teams in the standings seem to have little chance, as they have been in losing mode, with the exception of Boston College who has won primarily at home. Virginia Tech has bunched together wins to be considered for semi-finals and Florida State is a threat the way they play defense, if they can make shots.

Review this; ACC underdogs boast an overall mark of 44-23-3 ATS since 2003.

Prediction: Duke and Virginia Tech in final

Championship -1:00ET, ESPN

Big Ten Preview – March 11-14

It really has been a maniacal year in the Big Ten. Teams lost when they had every reason to win on their home court and underdogs off deflating losses bounced back immediately to win as head-scratchers. In the end, one team stood above the rest playing their best basketball of the season, Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won 10 of 11 (6-5 ATS) and have a versatile starting lineup led by Evan Turner that can thwart the opposition in various ways. Michigan State, despite its fine record, has disappointed, not being as strong as most thought. Purdue could very likely have won the Big Ten outright, however the loss of Robbie Hummel takes them from top five in the country to Top 20-30 range.

Two teams that are under the radar in this part of the world are Wisconsin and Illinois. The Badgers have their big man back in Jon Leuer and could put together a weekend streak and steal this deal. Illinois is physically capable with Demetri McCamey leading the Fighting Illini; it’s just a matter of the rest of the team being mentally strong to compete day after day. Pending seeds, nobody will want to see Penn State, who is 3-15 in league play, but 9-2 ATS on the road, losing by less than four points a game.

These games tend to wrestling matches and the UNDER has hit 60 percent the last three years.
Prediction: Ohio State vs. Michigan State in final

Championship -3:30ET, CBS

CBB Giants in Action Thursday

Duke and Kentucky are both involved in attempting to be on the top line where the four seeds of the NCAA Tournament will reside in just over two weeks and each will look to continue to make sure they are in the conversation, being in action on Thursday night on ESPN2. Take a gander at each team and see if you believe they belong as a top seed and review the situation to see if you think they are play on team.

Tulsa at Duke 7:00E

The last several years, coach Mike Krzyzewski has scheduled one of these non-conference games in February with two things in mind. One, to break up the strain of playing in the ACC and also give his players a chance to face an average to better than average team, typically fighting to earn a NCAA berth. This current collection of Blue Devils’ players has never won a ACC title and that is foremost on their minds, leading Maryland by a game, nonetheless this great preparation taking on unknown opponent as this club is starting to gel, having won six straight and eight of nine (5-3-1 ATS).

Coach K knows what he’s going to get from his Big Three (Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler) and recently he’s been working on putting certain players like Lance Thomas, center Brian Zoubek and the Plumlee brothers in more comfortable positions on the floor for them to score. Duke (23-4, 16-9-1 ATS) is 15-0 and 10-4 ATS at home this season.

With Memphis presumably down at the start of the year, Tulsa (19-8, 7-16-1 ATS) believed this might be their opportunity to take charge of Conference USA, with its two senior leaders. Unfortunately the rest of the league has not cooperated and the Golden Hurricane is distant fifth in the league, having lost four of last five to teams that are ahead of them in the standings. Coach Doug Wojcik has never been able to develop a bench and possibly the heavy minutes the starters are playing is taking a toll. Tulsa’s two best players are guard Ben Uzoh and center Jerome Jordan, who’s really blossomed into a very good offensive player. Tulsa has not covered a spread since Jan. 16, a span of 10 games.

Bookmaker.com has Duke as 18-point favorites and they are 12-2 and 8-5 ATS in non-conference action. The Blue Devils are 13-1 and 9-3-1 ATS with three or more days off. Tulsa is 0-7-1 ATS taking on a team with winning record and is 4-10 ATS off a spread loss, including eight failures in a row.

South Carolina at Kentucky 9:00E

The Wildcats will seek revenge for their lone defeat this season at the hands of the Gamecocks. In the 68-62 loss, Kentucky was “Downey-ized” by Devan Downey, who torched them for 30 points. One important element from the earlier matchup that played a key role was the undersized South Carolina squad held a +4 rebounding edge. Kentucky (26-1, 14-11 ATS) no doubt will seek redemption and is 13-4 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a road favorite.

Since their moment of the year, South Carolina (14-12, 9-14 ATS) has returned to being what they are, a slightly above average squad with limited ability in the paint and dependent on Downey to score and distribute the ball to others. The Gamecocks have shriveled up as visitors with 1-8 and 2-7 ATS record away from Columbia. South Carolina will need an even better performance to sweep Kentucky, but they are 3-12 ATS vs. shooting teams making 45 percent or more of their shots this season.

Big Blue is 11-1 and 8-4 ATS against South Carolina in Lexington, with last seven contests going OVER the number and they are a solid 16.5-point favorite to avenge loss.

Is Kansas Good Bet on the road as No.1?

When any team is ranked No.1 and takes to the road in conference action, they are a massive target. Kansas (24-1, 10-11-1 ATS) has been finding that out with regularity (2-2-1 ATS Big 12 roadies) and hits the pavement to College Station, looking to avoid the upset. The Jayhawks have a plethora of talent on its roster, but those blue jerseys bring out the best in their opponents, making the 17-8 ATS record against Big 12 combatants since last year all the greater an accomplishment.

Coach Bill Self won his 400th game Saturday night in less than 17 seasons, in non-cover over Iowa State 73-59. When asked about thoughts of joining the legends of coaching like Bobby Knight and Dean Smith who have over 800 wins, Self said this, “I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of guys who win 800 from this point forward. I think the business has changed enough where guys aren’t going to coach for as many years as they had.

Self’s Jayhawks are 9-3-1 ATS off a spread loss since last season.

The Aggies have enjoyed a genial campaign in 2009-10 at 18-6 and are tied for second place in the Big 12 with Kansas State at 7-3, nonetheless the schedule-maker back-loaded Texas A&M (12-8 ATS) with one toughie after another. This Big Monday matchup will test their endurance, after Saturday’s 67-65 winning conflict at Texas Tech. B.J. Holmes led the way with 18 points for Aggies club that has won six of seven, including winning and covering four in a row.

For senior guard Donald Sloan this is really meaningful and a “W” would punctuate a fine career. Reed Arena will be rocking with Texas A&M 16-0 at home (8-4 ATS) dating back to last year and averaging better than 1,300 fans over stated capacity this season.

Kansas is favored by seven points at DiamondSportsbook.com and is 18-6 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a contest after 15 or more games over the last two seasons. The Jayhawks have won last six against Aggies, covering four of them. Texas A&M coach Mark Turgeon has his team feeling good about itself at 8-3 and 7-3 ATS after a cover and 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season.

This is the second game on Big Monday and Kansas is 17-5 ATS in last 22 Monday assignments.

Missouri and Kansas Clash in Border War

Missouri was chosen as the seventh best team in the Big 12 before the season and early on that figure was befitting of their play. Yet, as the team worked together, they developed chemistry and all the hard work is paying off having won 10 of 11 (5-2 ATS). Last season’s Elite Eight club suffered key losses, but that experience taught the returning players about what it takes to play at high level. The Tigers (15-4, 8-5 ATS) mentally grinding pressure makes them 16-6 ATS versus offensive teams like Kansas scoring 77 or more points a game, including 6-0 against the spread this season.

The loss to Tennessee might have been a good thing for Kansas (18-1, 8-7-1 ATS), as players and coaches were able to get back on the same page. The Jayhawks are as talented as any team in the land and all players that see major minutes have aspirations of playing at the next level, which can become a distraction for coaches. Bill Self has stressed the importance of playing for each other and winning the Big 12, earning No. 1 seed, which allows the other aspects to take care of themselves. Kansas is sick 17-3-1 ATS playing against a team with a winning record past the midpoint of the regular season the last two years.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Kansas listed as 12-point home favorites with total of 150, which works out to projected score of 81-69, which sounds off since Missouri averages 81.6 points per contest, however their point total falls off on the road where they’ve scored 70.9 PPG in seven road conflicts.

Missouri is 13-3 ATS having won two of their last three games since last season and is 6-0 ATS after playing a home game this year. The Tigers have to be aggressive and look to force their 20.9 turnovers per game, which is the best in the country. Misso is 11-2 OVER as a road underdog or pick the last three seasons.

Since losing to the Vols, the Jayhawks have won four in a row (2-1-1 ATS) and one player in particular is returning to his old form. Center Cole Aldrich has faced several issues of late, including dealing with the loss of his grandmother last week and he bounced back with his first double-double since Jan. 2 at Iowa State Saturday. “It just feels good to be back,” Aldrich said. “I’ve been through a lot of stuff. It’s tough and it weighs on me, but I’m just going out and giving it my heart.” The Tigers are 11-2 ATS after playing a road game and are 13-4 UNDER off a win against a conference rival since last year.

Jayhawks are laudable 10-1 and 6-4-1 ATS in Missouri’s last 11 visits to Lawrence and this Border War begins at approximately 9 Eastern on ESPN.

Big Monday is Back

With football relegated to weekends the rest of the season, college basketball is back on the front burner. That means a dose of Big East and Big 12 hoops for the next couple of months and wagering opportunities from two of the best conferences in the collegiate game. We start this Monday with a “Whiteout” in Louisville and “Bedlam” bash in Norman. Get Ready!

Cardinal red is white

Louisville (12-4, 5-6 ATS) spent the early part of the season learning to play without its two best players from a year ago and coach Rick Pitino has added responsibility with their hard work and maturity. He’s brought back different full-court defenses, that have man-to-man principles in the half court and the players love it. Guards Preston Knowles and Edgar Sosa are embracing the challenge and Samardo Samuels has become more dominant. The Cardinals are on 18-6 ATS run in Big East action the last two years.

The last couple of years, Louisville has added a special night when everyone in the arena wears white t-shirts, for the whiteout-effect and coach Rick Pitino has joined in the festivities wearing a pure white suit with a red tie, which led to coining the phrase “respect the suit”. The Cardinals have won seven of eight, including a non-cover over St. John’s 75-68 Saturday. Louisville is 23-12 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last three seasons.

After squeaking by Marquette twice in eight days by a total of four points, once beaten Villanova (14-1, 10-4 ATS) lands in Kentucky. The Wildcats have a number of ways to attack teams with its marvelous guard contingent and should not be vastly affected by the different types of presses Louisville likes to use. Few guards in the country have been through the wars like Scottie Reynolds and his team is 13-3 ATS vs. good offensive clubs averaging 77 or more points per game. Coach Jay Wright’s concern is defensive intensity, where he has seen unnecessary lapses.

When asked about having his team readiness to play after nipping Marquette 78-76 Saturday, Wright said. “We’ll be fired up to play”.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Cardinals as three-point favorites, with total of 155. Villanova is averaging 84.3 points per game and Louisville is 5-15 ATS versus offensive teams -scoring 84 or more points game. The Wildcats have to contend with the Cards various defenses and are 6-16 ATS after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.

These teams have split six engagements the last 12 years with the ‘Ville 5-1 ATS.

Bedlam to reign

Oklahoma (9-6, 4-8 ATS) figured to have problems with the departure of All-American Blake Griffin, but not to this extreme. The Sooners have lost five games by double digits and the last three have been a nightmare, being destroyed by 15, 24 and 31 respectively. Oklahoma brought in a number of new recruits that were supposed to blend with talented returnees like guard Willie Warren, but as coach Jeff Capel said about his underperforming squad, “Talent is overrated,”.

The Sooners are 0-6 ATS off a spread loss and defensive effort has been the biggest culprit. In their last three blowouts, they have allowed opposing teams to shoot 55.8 percent. Maybe a battle with in-state rival will stir their hearts.

Oklahoma State (13-2, 6-2-1 ATS) started Big 12 play with bang, burying then No.22 Texas Tech 81-52 two nights ago. James Anderson led the way with 28 points and they have done a superb job protecting the ball with just over 11 turnovers a game, which is on pace to break a school record. The Cowboys are averaging 75.1 points per game this season and are 10-1 ATS when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last two seasons.

Oklahoma State opened as a one-point favorite, with total of 146. The Cowboys have covered 10 of last 11 league games and are 13-5 UNDER after two or more consecutive wins. Oklahoma has taken nine of last 12 meetings at home, with 5-7 ATS mark and is 12-3 OVER in all home games over the last two seasons.

The Sooners are dismal 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 Big Monday’s.

Cowboys expected to ride Buffalos hard

Among the surprises in college football this season is Oklahoma State. Not in the traditional sense, though the possibility of the Cowboys finishing in second place in the Big 12 South does carry some shock value. It is how Oklahoma State has compiled 8-2 record, having a solid defense that is the cause for surprise.

Oklahoma State’s season has been startling, considering their terrific trio has been reduced to basically just one, with quarterback Zac Robinson carrying the burden. All-America receiver Dez Bryant was lost because of a NCAA suspension and running back Kendall Hunter has been slowed by a nagging ankle/foot injuries and only recently has come back to play, lacking his usual explosiveness.

The Cowboys (6-3 ATS) are ranked fourth in the Big 12 in defense and 32nd nationally, surrendering 333.9 yards per game. Okie State has been incredibly stingy on the ground, allowing 89.6 yards per game, good for sixth nationally. Linebacker Patrick Lavine is among those who accepted the challenge once the offense lost several weapons. “He’s a great playmaker for us,” said teammate Andre Sexton, another senior linebacker. “He steps up and makes game-changing plays when we need it.”

Oklahoma State has lost only to Texas in last eight games and is 22-8 ATS in home games after covering the spread in two out of their last three contests. The Cowboys will take on Colorado (3-7, 5-5 ATS), who might have another coach on the sidelines next season.

Dan Hawkins is dismissing reports he’s under fire despite 16-31 record in Boulder. Though Hawkins was brought in to help clean up the program from the scandal-laden days under Gary Barnett and succeeded, big time football isn’t just about getting the players to go to class and keep trouble to a minimum, it’s about winning. This will be the third time in four years with no bowl game for Buffs under Hawkins, who are plagued with inconsistencies and penalties.

This is a burdensome spot Colorado, having lost at Iowa State 17-10 on Saturday and having to playing another road game on a short week. Under Hawkins, the Buffs are 4-12 ATS after scoring 14 points or less and 4-13 against the spread after playing their last game on the road.

Bookmaker.com has Oklahoma State as 17-point home favorites with total of 47.5, suggesting a final score of roughly 32-15. If that score appears to low, than the fact the Cowboys are 11-3 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons and 13-4-2 ATS at home in November should be more comforting. Colorado doesn’t look to be in a very good situation and 6-15 ATS road record backs up that point up. However, for those that see the glass half full as opposed to half empty, the Buffalos are 4-0 ATS catching 17 or more points in last four tries.

ESPN of course will have this telecast at 7:45 Eastern, with Chris Fowler watching his alma mater. (Colorado if you didn’t know) In the last 17 encounters between these squads, the SU winner has won by 10 or more points 14 times.

NCAA Tourney Changing, Somewhat for the Better (Bettor)

It was an eventful first four days of the men’s basketball tourney and it is readily apparent things are in the process of change. When a team like Arizona, who has been to the tournament as often as a sunny day in Tucson, is the Cinderella story, well you can see the landscape is changing. The charm of big time upsets and unnatural storylines is giving way to the “chalk” ruling tournaments.

The NCAA Tournament is the only of its kind where the beginning of the post-season is more anticipated than the end. Do millions of people fill out Wild Card weekend brackets in the NFL or wait for the Super Bowl. The start of the NBA playoffs is met with the excitement of “Samantha Who” returning to airwaves. (If you don’t what that show is, the line is on the left) The Baseball and Hockey playoffs, be serious, unless you are big fan of either sport.

What we are left with isn’t so bad, as the matchups could hardly be more intriguing and whoever ends up being national champion, will not have any easy games left on the docket. It just points to the selection committee doing there jobs with excellence.

The Big East had five of their seven picked teams make the Sweet 16, setting up the possibility of East Regional final between top seeded Pittsburgh and Villanova. The Panthers were the shakiest team to advance, playing two rather emotionless affairs, while coming away victorious. Regular and post-season champion Louisville was pushed by Siena, which might be a good thing for the Cardinals. Overall the Big East stands at 11-2 and 6-7 ATS.

The Big 12 validated themselves as a strong conference that was probably a little underrated with 8-3 showing and having three teams advance. The Big 12 was tremendous 11-1 against the spread.

The ACC was trying to convince others in January that its conference was every bit as good as the Big East. Not many were buying, feeling the elite teams where as good as any other league, just not the whole contingent. This was proven with North Carolina and Duke making this round. The ACC didn’t show well with .500 record and paltry 3-6-1 ATS record.

There are those that felt the Big Ten was surprise this season, being better than anticipated, however the tournament has shown the league to be slighting above average with Michigan State and Purdue advancing. Collectively, the Big Ten is 6-5 and 4-7 ATS.

This was supposed to be mildly down year for the Pac-10, but after the first round, opinions were about to change with first round record of 5-1 and 4-2 ATS mark. Then the reality of stiffer competition set in and only the presumed last team invited, Arizona, had what it took to move on and the Pac-10 is 6-5 and 5-6 ATS at present.

The SEC was ridiculed all season and was quietly dispatched with 1-3 SU and ATS record and doesn’t have a team in the Sweet 16 for the first time in two decades.

Other Betting Notes:

In the first round, the higher seed was 21-11 with an undesirable 10-21-1 ATS record. When you include the play-in game, favorites were 22-11 and 11-21-1 ATS.

The second round brought quick and abrupt change for higher seeds and favorites, with 15-1 and 12-4 against the spread record.

In the opening round, the Over did slightly better with 18-15 mark, which was followed up by dominating 12-4 Over record on the weekend.

All top three seeds advanced to next round with 18-0 record and were 10-7-1 ATS.

The at-large teams, who in many cases were going to be in the tournament, just didn’t have the automatic bid, were 18-6 and 14-10 ATS when not matched against a team with the same credentials.

All teams that won the regular season title and not playing a team that did the same were 7-8 and 8-7 ATS.

After being a strong play in the second round, No.10 seeds were 0-3 SU and ATS.

Observations:

The Michigan State and USC contest was like watching an Elite Eight contest, based on the skill of the players and intensity.

Duke might be done, since their days of being a dominant team in this event are over, unless they find a big man, like the Christian Laettner and Cherokee Parks days. I’ve heard the reason Coach K can’t land a top big man is all of the coaches were guards and today’s players want to make move to get to NBA and want coaches who can develop their skills.

I wonder what St. Mary’s was thinking watching Arizona advance.

Watching Pac-10 player of the year James Hardin, brought to mind, Where’s Waldo?

Not sure what CBS needs to do, but their analyst line-up is no longer compelling. Everyone likes different aspects and Bill Raftery and Bob Wenzel make strong observations and will speculate along with having charm. Mike Giminski, Jim Spanarkle, Len Elmore and Dan Bonner are all competent, you just never learn anything.

Jay Bilas is the best of all the newer analysts over the last couple of years; however his unbelievably frequent use of the term “ball screen” is past the point of being over done.

While many people didn’t like Billy Packer for any number of his faults, he had a keen eye of observation and was able to pick out nuisances of what was happening on the floor. Clark Kellogg has been garden variety for a lead announcer and resembles one of his often quirky phrases. “Like a screen-saver, lots of activity, just not much gets done.”

College Conference Tournament Previews

ACC
March 12-15 –Atlanta

The last few Atlantic Coast Conference Tournaments have lacked the panache of previous events, but by every college basketball individual that follows the game, this year’s tournament should bring it back to the head of the class. While North Carolina is the chalk in the tourney, they are not a sure thing having only covered the spread twice in nine games since February. Led by Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson, the Tar Heels have the offensive capabilities to take down any team, nevertheless have defensive shortcomings. If North Carolina should stumble, the list of quality choices is better than a Subway sub shop.

Duke can score and defend enough to win, but will its starters be able to go the distance. Wake Forest is as talented as any team in the field, yet their inexperience does show up, particularly if guard Jeff Teague is stifled. Clemson is again creeping to the close, with 5-5 record, though still dangerous with style of play. You can’t teach height and Florida State has the most, as long a Toney Douglas can carry the offense, the Seminoles have shot. Boston College, Maryland and Virginia Tech are all capable of making the semi-finals. As certain announcer loves to say, “This year’s tournament should be awesome baby.”

Fast Fact – ACC underdogs are 36-20-1 ATS run.

Prediction: Play on North Carolina and Wake Forest for finals.
Sleeper: Florida State

Atlantic -10
March 11-15 -Atlantic City

Chalk is normally something you write with, not used for anything else. For sports bettors who follow the Atlantic-10, chalk is not only a writing utensil, but something to be watched very carefully for the profits it yields. In the last six years, the favorite in the A-10 tournament has covered the spread 63 percent of the time. This year Xavier, Dayton and rambunctious Rhode Island have been the class of the league. The Musketeers are turning into a reload program under coach Sean Miller, instead of having to rebuild. The Flyers have not found life as easy without point guard Rob Lowery, gone due to season ending injury. Dayton is 7-6 and 6-7 ATS away from home. The Rams are 10-2 (6-5-1 ATS) since Jan. 24 and can play different styles to beat opponents.

Either Temple or St. Joseph’s usually manage to make at least the semi-finals, with the former having the better chance this season. One team to watch is St. Louis, who closed the regular season on 9-2 ATS push. Follow the betting favorites, just be selective.

Fast Fact – A-10 favorites are 41-24 ATS last six tournaments

Prediction: Play on Play on Temple and Rhode Island for finals.
Sleeper: Temple

Big East
March 10-14 – New York City

Without a doubt, the most anticipated tournament this year. The field has been expanded to include every one of the 16 teams, meaning single and double byes for the teams that have been in the Top 25 all season. The last several years a darkhorse has emerged, playing in the finals on fumes with four games in four days, winning the tournament as often as not. Pittsburgh was the club to do so last year in the Big Apple and they won’t have to worry about that this season with their positioning. Connecticut has the largest contingent of players to win in New York, but this has been the case previously, with the Huskies having not been in the finals since 2003.

Top-seeded Louisville is another squad that has enjoyed limited success in these type of tournaments and Marquette isn’t the same without guard Dominic James. Though their record is sensational at 25-6, Villanova receives little acclaim. This is one team very capable of winning it all, especially if Scottie Reynolds scores, since the Wildcats are 10-0 when Reynolds throws in 18 or more points a contest. West Virginia is the other team capable off making some noise.

Fast Fact – No. 5 seeds are 9-2 ATS as underdogs of three points or less

Prediction: Play on Pittsburgh and Villanova for finals
Sleeper: West Virginia (real stretch)

Big Ten
March 12-15 – Indianapolis

If you think Big Ten regular season champion Michigan State is a mortal lock to at least make the finals, slow down Spartan-boy breath. The last time coach Tom Izzo’s squad made a trip to the Big Ten finale, turn of the century fatalists were realizing they didn’t need to hoard products, because the world wasn’t going to end when the odometer turned to 2000. In truth, Michigan State should still have enough to make finals this year and the way the league played out, Indiana and Iowa are about the only teams they won’t face.

Because of the style of play most teams incorporate in this conference, these matchups tend to be very defensive and fairly dull. Wisconsin and Illinois typically have done well, having met twice in the last four years for the title. Best bets for this Midwestern competition would look to be to play on underdogs of more than four points, with how competitive the spots 2-9 are.

Fast Fact – First round underdogs are 14-4 ATS

Prediction: Play on Michigan State and Illinois for finals.
Sleeper: Wisconsin

Big 12
March 11-14 – Oklahoma City

The Big 12 has been about the big three all year, Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri. The Sooners would seem to have a small edge, having a more bipartisan crowd in their favor, playing in their home state. Having soon to be player of the year Blake Griffin would also be in their favor. The Jayhawks have a more complete team suited to win three games in a row and can play a number of ways besides preferred uptempo. Missouri off their impressive win over the Sooners can not be ignored, with a bothersome defense, what they have to protect against is shooting meltdowns, since they are 1-4 and 0-5 ATS converting less than 40 percent from the field.

One team lurking as upset-maker is Oklahoma State. Oh sure, they are 0-4 against the Big 3, nonetheless, they finished the regular campaign on a 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS push and should have a great deal of confidence having similar crowd support to OU. You would like to believe Texas could be a factor, yet the Longhorns don’t play 40 minutes of quality basketball often enough.

Fast Fact – Big 12 favorites of six or more points are 6-29 ATS

Prediction: Play on Oklahoma and Kansas for finals
Sleeper: Oklahoma State

Conference -USA
March 11-14 – Memphis

If Memphis doesn’t win the Conference USA tournament again this year on there home court, you might want to start listening to those doomsayers about what is happening to the world. At least from conference perspective, the Tigers are as menacing as ever, making it a tussle for the right to play them. Tulsa and UAB are in the best positions to have the honor of being mauled by the Tigers, since they are the two and three seeds, meaning they can’t meet until the finals.

It is challenging to find a lower tier team to support. Marshall closed 6-3 (6-2 ATS), yet to embrace a club that is 2-13 and 5-9 ATS away from home is heart-stopping. Because the rest of the league is dismal, the best plays are to back underdogs in fairly even matched contests; at least you are receiving points.

C-USA championship game favorites are only 2-4 ATS in last six.

Fast Fact – C-USA underdogs are 37-26 ATS

Prediction: Play on Memphis and Tulsa for the finals
Sleeper: Houston

Mountain West
March 11-14 – Las Vegas

Its Vegas baby, unfortunately that doesn’t guaranteed the Runnin’ Rebels are a lock to be in the finals. UNLV finished fifth the Mountain West, suggesting they won’t have quite the fan support of prior years unless they make it to the title game. Lon Kruger’s club wasn’t bullet-proof at home either. The 15-2 record looks sharp, but the 6-8 ATS record is as vacant as all the hotel rooms.

The sad part is if UNLV is eliminated, they could take this tournament over The Orleans hotel gym and they might not fill up that much smaller seating facility either. That is too bad, as BYU, Utah and New Mexico are all teams worthy of NCAA consideration. The Cougars are the best of the trio, with 9-1 and 9-1 ATS record since Jan .30. BYU has several scoring options and can bang on defense. The Lobos only slipup since the calendar turned to February was at BYU and have shown they can play better on the road this year. The Utes fell to both of the close competitors on the road the last two weeks, yet still have wins over Gonzaga and LSU proving their pedigree.

Fast Fact – Quarterfinal round favorites are 8-16 ATS

Prediction: Play on BYU and Utah for the finals
Sleeper: UNLV

Pac-10
March 11-14 – Los Angeles

Of the tournaments from the BCS conferences, the Pac-10 annually is the least attended. This sort of makes sense, as it is a long trek for fans from the universities of Washington state and Oregon state, especially if it looks like a one and done trip into Los Angeles.

It has been a confusing year trying to figure this league with Washington being the regular season champions. The beauty of what the Huskies did once again proves what can happen with the various dynamics of a squad. Often, there is no way to tell how hard a player will work in the off-season to improve or how a team might come together. It will be intriguing to see how Washington handles the role of the hunted as top-seed.

The results of this tournament have seen the higher seeds cover a 57.4 percent of the time, however that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been plenty of upsets. Since 2002, seven different teams have made the title tilt and Arizona State will have a legitimate opportunity, realistically for the first time. Of course UCLA has to be strongly considered and California, if they can find a way to trick themselves into thinking they are at Berkeley could surprise.

Fast Fact – Top seeds are 6-2 ATS when favored by 10 points or more

Prediction: Play on UCLA and Washington for finals
Sleeper: California

SEC
March 12-15 – Tampa

The SEC has absorbed more shots than a college student on weekend bender. Most analysts agree LSU and Tennessee; the division winners are in the NCAA tournament, however beyond that, the SEC has more bubble teams than a bottle of champagne. South Carolina, Florida and Kentucky have all bludgeoned themselves and to surmise if these teams might do well in the SEC Tournament, this would be like guessing what stocks to buy, if you had any money.

In trying to find teams on the uptick in this conference, the two division winners certainly have to be considered, especially the Vols, who weren’t even in the conversation for the SEC East crown three weeks ago. Another very quiet team hanging around is Auburn. The Tigers have won eight of nine and are 9-0 ATS, suggesting they are treacherous foe and could fly under the radar.

Not sure what the venue change to Tampa is going to do except provide more empty seats televisions producers will try and hide. With the conference really down, LSU and Tennessee losing would be the only real upsets. Of course a fitting final would be last place teams Arkansas and Georgia, based on how the season gone.

Fast Fact – SEC favorites of 6.5 or more points are 20-7 ATS

Prediction: Play on Tennessee and Auburn for the finals.

Sleeper: The whole conference

WAC
March 10-14 – Reno

The Western Athletic Conference was looking a lot like Conference USA until Utah State started to stumble. The Aggies were coasting along at 24-1, nationally ranked and it was all good. The loss at Boise State was not unnerving, but subsequent defeats to St. Mary’s and Nevada have signaled everything is not right for Utah State. For a team to upset the Aggies in the WAC tourney, they must follow the same path others have taken. Defensive intensity to limit Utah State shooting, since when they convert less than 50 percent of attempts, they are far less effective. Additionally, take a page out of their book, take good shots.

Realistically, only Boise State and Nevada seem to have realistic shot to knock Utah State off, with the Wolfpack playing on home floor. Keep a watchful eye on Louisiana Tech since they were 11-5 ATS in league play and 12-6 against the spread as an underdog this season.

Fast Fact – Favorites with revenge are 2-6 ATS

Prediction: Play on Nevada and Utah State for the finals

Sleeper: Boise State

Conference Tournament Tendencies

It’s March and the Madness began on March 3rd with some conference tournaments tipping off. There are some tendencies that different conferences have shown in the past. While knowing what happened at a certain frequency in the past does not ensure that pattern will continue in the future, I believe it is an additional tool that handicappers can add to their arsenal in their endeavors to make money betting on sports.

I looked at the results of all lined conference tournament games since the 1997-98 season, unless noted differently. In the overall records, I included the results of 33 games from conferences that aren’t lined on a regular basis, such as the Atlantic Sun and Big South. I compared the higher seeded teams versus the lower seeded teams, which does not always necessarily mean I was comparing the team that was favored over the underdog. For clarity, a #2 seed is the higher seed when playing a #7 seed.

It is a lower seed world in the ACC with a 54-41 56.8%, ATS record. There was also a lower than normal straight-up mark of only 64.6% of the higher seeds winning outright.The Atlantic 10 saw the higher seeded squads prevail at a nice 57.8% ATS rate, 67-49, coupled with a 86-33, 72.3%, SU mark.

The Big 12 had a higher rate of the better-seeded teams winning outright, 74.6% coupled with a small bias to the Under at a 54.5% clip.The longest post-season conference tournament belongs to the Big East with all 16 teams participating. It starts March 10th and runs for five consecutive days. Nothing noteworthy except for the lowest success rate for the higher seeds to win straight-up, 63.1%.

Nothing worthy of reporting for the Big Sky Championship except that only the top six schools get in with the #5 and #6 seeds playing at the homes of the #4 and #3 seeds respectively on March 7th. Those winners travel to Ogden March 10th for the conclusion of the tourney.The Big Ten showed a much more competitive landscape with the lower-seeded teams covering at a 57.8% rate. Not surprisingly, but this slow-paced conference saw the Under happen 56.2% of the time.

The Big West has been a very good spot for totals players with a 63.6% Under rate. However, the Colonial Athletic Association outdid the Big West playing the Under, at 68.7%. Conference USA kept with the prevailing totals trend with a 60-38 Under record, 60.2%.

The Horizon League Basketball Championship began Tuesday, March 3 with the first round being played at the campus sites of the #4,5,6 and 7 seeds. On Friday the second round happens with Tuesday’s winners advancing to Indianapolis and the court where Gene Hackman had his players measure the height of the baskets in the movie “Hoosiers”, Hinkle Field House at Butler University. The number one seed has won 15 of the previous 29 league championships including each of the last four. Not surprisingly, the straight-up record overall is 77.7% with an impressive ATS mark of 59.3% since the 1997-98 tourney, back when it was known as the Midwestern Collegiate Conference.

The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference’s tourney tips off Friday, March 6, with the bottom four seeds playing the first round. This has been a play on the higher-seed tournament with those squads covering the point spread 61.4% of the time while winning straight up 79.1%. Once again we have a prejudice to the Under at 56.4%.

The Mid-American Conference is celebrating its tenth year of holding the tournament in Cleveland and starts March 10th. The higher-seeded teams have beaten the number set by the oddsmaker 58.6% of the time. For a change, we find the Over cashing tickets at a 57.5% clip in the MAC.

Beginning Thursday, March 5th, in St. Louis is the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. We are back to strongly considering the Under with a historical 64.3% track record and a slight bias to the higher seed at 54.1%.

The Mountain West has only been around since the beginning of the 1999 season. Supporters of the lower-seeds smile frequently in the MWC with a 58.6% ATS record. This has been an “Over” conference with 56.1% of the games going over the lined total.

Another early tourney that started Tuesday, March 3rd is the Ohio Valley Conference affair with four games at the home venue of the higher seed. Those winners move Friday to Nashville. Nothing noteworthy from an ATS perspective but the Under does happen at a 62.1% rate.

The PAC-10 stopped their tournament after a four-year run ending in 1990. The tourney was given a second life starting with the 2001-02 season. In those tourneys since the rebirth, the higher seed has covered the point spread a respectable 57.4% of the time with 59.3% of the games going Over the posted total.

With the results from the 1997-98 season on, the Southeastern Conference has also had a spate of Overs, 61.6% to be exact. The higher seed only wins straight-up 64.2% of the time but does cover the linesmaker’s number at a 55.9% frequency.

The only thing you need to know about the Southern Conference Tournament since 1998 is to bet the Under. If you had done so blindly, you would have won 70.4% of your wagers. The Sun Belt Conference’s bottom ten teams start their tournament at the campus of the higher seed on Wednesday, March 4th. The winners of those games travel to Hot Springs to start back up on March 8th. The higher seeds win outright 73.1% and are 57.8% ATS.

A healthy 61.2% of the games go Over the total.The Western Athletic Conference has no edge to report in their tournament games. The WAC starts tourney play in Reno, NV March 10th.

Since the 1997-98 season, the West Coast Conference Tournament has produced 60.5% ATS winners on the higher seeds with 54.3% of the games topping the lined total. This year the WCC moves to a completely neutral site in Las Vegas with tip-off Friday, March 6th.

In looking at all of the tournament games for the conferences broken down by the line of the higher seed, big favorites of 15.5 to 19.5 points covered the point spread 54.8% of the time but faves of 20 points or more only won ATS 38.8%. At 15 points and below, I normally break down the groups by possession, three-point increments. Teams laying 12.5 to 15 points only had a success ATS rate of 43.5%. However, the sweetest area was the 9.5 to 12 point faves beating the number 61.5% of the time. No other line-group had a 54% or better rate, betting on or against, except for two-possession underdogs, getting 3.5 to 6 points. No, it wasn’t favorable to the dogs as they only beat the spread 43.1% of the time while winning 31.8% of the games outright.

As for tendencies in totals, the only 4% or more variance from 50% was with lined totals of 160 or higher, 57.1% Under, and a 55.7% Under rate with games lined in the 130’s.

The non-regularly lined conferences had interesting marks in the games that have been lined in the past few years. While the higher seeded team had a 20-12 SU mark, their ATS record was a dismal 11-21. The Under posted a 19-13 record.

Regarding games that were played in a venue that was a true home-court advantage, other than a SU record of 76.7%, overall there was nothing noteworthy. However, breaking it down by the line of the game, home favorites of 9.5 to 14.5 points covered the point spread 61.6% of the time, 45-28. There were only 6 outright upsets out of the 74 game sample. Big faves of 15+ points still covered 55.6% of their games. Home faves of two possessions, 3.5 to 6 points, also did well at a 56.9% rate. The same can’t be said for home teams from pick’em to 3-point faves as they covered the point spread just 38.7% while winning SU only 53.1% of the time. Underdogs on their home court only won straight-up 34.6% of the games while covering an exact 50%.

Enjoy the next five weeks. For college hoops fans, this is the best time of the year.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority did the research for this article.

Making Sense of Numbers in Revenge Games

With less then two weeks remaining in the regular reason for college basketball, nearly every game has a revenge twist to it. Some of the bigger conferences will not have every game playing into pay back contests, with the unruly nature of trying to play most every team once, with leagues of more than 12 universities. In fact, the Mid-American Conference to date has not had a single return match this season.

In looking for an edge in gambling on college basketball, trying to comprehend what certain numbers mean from the oddsmakers is important. For example, if two teams in the same conference are evenly matched, the standard deviation should have the home team favored by four to five points, depending on the league and what a typical home court advantage would be. This would mean any normal return game should have a swing of eight to 10 points. When this doesn’t occur, what does this mean?

If a team was favored by 10 points playing at home and is now favored by eight on the road (instead of about two), how should this information be interpreted? Was the favorite undervalued to start with or has the other team gotten worse and needs more points from those setting the line to make a more even contest from wagering point of view?

For this and other answers, went thru every conference that keeps track of point spreads and limited all revenge situations to in-conference only. (Random tournaments and scheduled games did pop up) Stayed with the standard deviation of 8-10 points, also added revenge games where the spread was 7.5 or less or 10.5 or greater.

The specific question was -how do teams perform in following meeting after having beaten their opponent, be it home or away, against the spread? Ended up studying the results of 21 conferences and this is what was found thru Feb. 23.

Starting with the normal turnaround numbers of 8-10 points, the first time winner was not very successful in posting 91-104 ATS record, good for 46.6 percent mark. This is not entirely surprising given the fact the numbers fell within conventional parameters. If the two schools are somewhat comparable, then it would stand to reason the more motivated previous loser would play better. Certain conference contributed more to the losing than others as you can see.

Big 12 1-6 ATS
Horizon 3-7 ATS
Ivy 1-5 ATS
Sun Belt 4-8 ATS
WAC 2-5 ATS
West Coast 1-4-1 ATS

Each of the other two categories essentially generated the same meanings, depending on how you interpret the numbers; however the volume of games was dramatically different.

The spread differential of 7.5 or less points yielded 189 games almost as many as what was perceived as average point spread differences. (195) In this case, the results again favored the team in revenge, even to a greater degree. The revenge-minded club was 104-85 ATS, 55 percent. Why this number could be higher, is the results of the initial contest might not have accurately reflected the strengths or weakness of the two teams and enough has changed since prior encounter to limit the amount of movement in the spread.

Here we find sharp figures pointing pronounced results in particular conferences, with teams looking a for season split very profitable.

Big Ten 7-3 ATS
Big West 8-1 ATS
Colonial 6-1 ATS

Nevertheless, the numbers are balanced out is some method and other leagues saw the previous winning team covering the spread in next contest.

Ohio Valley 11-7-1 ATS
Pac-10 8-5 ATS
WAC 2-0 ATS

Spread differentials that were greater than 10 points were less than half, with a total of 89 recognized plays. The results were remarkably similar to the other groups, with the revenger 48-41 ATS, 54 percent.

In this part of the study, two conferences stood out for different reasons. In the Colonial, the winning team looking for a cover was 0-4 ATS, while the same squad in the Pac-10 was an even better going the other way at 6-0 ATS.

For the rest of the regular season, look to certain conferences which have had a proclivity to revenge situations. Here are the best and worst records against the linemaker for teams trying to sweep league rivals and cover the number.

Colonial 9-22 ATS
Horizon 13-20 ATS
Ivy 3-8-1 ATS
MAAC 13-21-1 ATS
WAC 9-14 ATS
West Coast 6-12-1 ATS

Pac-10 19-7-1 ATS
Big Sky 16-10 ATS

Keep these numbers handy over the next several days and remember, revenge is best served with a purpose.