CBB Favorites have it far from easy

Underdogs ruled the day on Thursday, covering over 58 percent of games played by teams that typically have their contests with lines from oddsmakers. With the stakes increase as the tournaments move along, are the favorites more or less vulnerable as these conflicts move ahead? Here are wagering aspects to consider about tonight’s varied line-up and what might occur for those in the favored position.

Starting in the ACC, Florida State won five of last six contests to move up to third seed in the conference and tries to return to championship game for a second straight year. DiamondSportsbook.com has the Seminoles as six-point favorites, which is possible dicey situation since they are 8-17 ATS this season, having dropped their last three.

North Carolina State provides the opposition and they are 4-1 SU and ATS in last five games, shooting over 50 percent three different times. The Wolfpack have been ordinary at best again this season with 18-14 record, however off upset of Clemson last night, they own 14-4 ATS record on Friday’s (the ACC doesn’t play on Friday’s in the regular season), which suggests Florida State could have trouble on their hands.

Michigan State might have tied for the Big Ten championship, but those setting the numbers are far from impressed. The Spartans face a Minnesota squad that also failed to meet expectations this campaign with 19-12 record, nonetheless, the Golden Gophers are burying opponents with 5-2 finish and six covers. Minnesota is long and lost twice to Michigan State by six points and one point and realizes who’s to blame.

"Last time we played Michigan State we lost by one point and we made a lot of mistakes in the last four minutes, so I definitely think we can pull off the upset," said Gophers Devoe Joseph.
The Spartans have won eight straight over Minnesota, covering seven of them, but Minny has shot 58 percent or higher in last two games and is 6-0 ATS after a contest where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last two seasons.

UTEP won its first outright conference title in 23 years and is hardly being rewarded for it in Conference USA. Normally, the league champion plays the earliest game in the quarterfinals, not the C-USA, they had the Miners in the last game of the day and their reward is having to play Tulsa in their home town, about 16 hours after soundly defeating Central Florida 76-54 as 10-point favorites in the first semi-final. "No other tournament in the country is doing that," said Miners coach Tony Barbee.

UTEP has won 16 in a row (10-6 ATS), which included a pair of wins over Tulsa. The Miners are 3.5-point favorites and 7-0 ATS in road games after a win by 15 points or more since last season. The Golden Hurricane will have revenge and partisan crowd in this quasi-home game and Tulsa is 12-3 ATS as a neutral court underdog of six points or less or pick.

CBB Giants in Action Thursday

Duke and Kentucky are both involved in attempting to be on the top line where the four seeds of the NCAA Tournament will reside in just over two weeks and each will look to continue to make sure they are in the conversation, being in action on Thursday night on ESPN2. Take a gander at each team and see if you believe they belong as a top seed and review the situation to see if you think they are play on team.

Tulsa at Duke 7:00E

The last several years, coach Mike Krzyzewski has scheduled one of these non-conference games in February with two things in mind. One, to break up the strain of playing in the ACC and also give his players a chance to face an average to better than average team, typically fighting to earn a NCAA berth. This current collection of Blue Devils’ players has never won a ACC title and that is foremost on their minds, leading Maryland by a game, nonetheless this great preparation taking on unknown opponent as this club is starting to gel, having won six straight and eight of nine (5-3-1 ATS).

Coach K knows what he’s going to get from his Big Three (Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler) and recently he’s been working on putting certain players like Lance Thomas, center Brian Zoubek and the Plumlee brothers in more comfortable positions on the floor for them to score. Duke (23-4, 16-9-1 ATS) is 15-0 and 10-4 ATS at home this season.

With Memphis presumably down at the start of the year, Tulsa (19-8, 7-16-1 ATS) believed this might be their opportunity to take charge of Conference USA, with its two senior leaders. Unfortunately the rest of the league has not cooperated and the Golden Hurricane is distant fifth in the league, having lost four of last five to teams that are ahead of them in the standings. Coach Doug Wojcik has never been able to develop a bench and possibly the heavy minutes the starters are playing is taking a toll. Tulsa’s two best players are guard Ben Uzoh and center Jerome Jordan, who’s really blossomed into a very good offensive player. Tulsa has not covered a spread since Jan. 16, a span of 10 games.

Bookmaker.com has Duke as 18-point favorites and they are 12-2 and 8-5 ATS in non-conference action. The Blue Devils are 13-1 and 9-3-1 ATS with three or more days off. Tulsa is 0-7-1 ATS taking on a team with winning record and is 4-10 ATS off a spread loss, including eight failures in a row.

South Carolina at Kentucky 9:00E

The Wildcats will seek revenge for their lone defeat this season at the hands of the Gamecocks. In the 68-62 loss, Kentucky was “Downey-ized” by Devan Downey, who torched them for 30 points. One important element from the earlier matchup that played a key role was the undersized South Carolina squad held a +4 rebounding edge. Kentucky (26-1, 14-11 ATS) no doubt will seek redemption and is 13-4 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a road favorite.

Since their moment of the year, South Carolina (14-12, 9-14 ATS) has returned to being what they are, a slightly above average squad with limited ability in the paint and dependent on Downey to score and distribute the ball to others. The Gamecocks have shriveled up as visitors with 1-8 and 2-7 ATS record away from Columbia. South Carolina will need an even better performance to sweep Kentucky, but they are 3-12 ATS vs. shooting teams making 45 percent or more of their shots this season.

Big Blue is 11-1 and 8-4 ATS against South Carolina in Lexington, with last seven contests going OVER the number and they are a solid 16.5-point favorite to avenge loss.

College Basketball Marathon

Starting at midnight Eastern, ESPN will have 24 hours of continuous college basketball coverage with enough games to take care of the insomniac and the early and late morning-risers. It is a feast for the basketball bettor, a great way to kick-start another season. Without further ado, here is the complete menu on ESPN, with ESPN2 and ESPNU to also have contests to consider.

11:59E Cal-State Fullerton vs. UCLA (-16.5)

The Titans have the unenviable task of replacing Big West Player of the Year Josh Akognon, however the roster is loaded with nine newcomers many of which are designed to improve rebounding margin which was -4.2 per game a season ago. UCLA will have a completely different look about them with nine freshmen and sophomores. As the season commences, the only familiar name to most people is holdover Michael Roll. Cal-State is 1-4 ATS in last five underdog roles. Cal-State Full wins 68-65 2OT

2:00E San Diego State vs St. Mary’s (-5.5)

San Diego State lost four starters, yet most experts figure the Aztecs will be as good if not better with solid transfers and junior college players meshing with holdovers like power forward Billy White, forward Tim Shelton and guard D.J. Gay. St. Mary’s maybe without outstanding guard Paddy Mills, but Wayne Hunter and Omar Samhan are expected to step up and be the leaders. Matthew Dellavedova could be the next great player from Australia for the Gaels, who are 9-3-1 ATS in non-conference action. St. Mary's wins 80-58

4:00E Northern Colorado vs Hawaii (-5.5)

Northern Colorado lost nine games by five points or less a season ago and they hope starting guards Will Figures and Devon Beitzel can help turn those defeats into wins with more experience. New players will be in the backcourt for Hawaii, looking to increase scoring and be help to forward Roderick Flemings, who has all-WAC talent. The Bears are 14-4-1 ATS in non-Big Sky action, while the Warriors are 10-27-1 ATS in non-conference contests. Northern Colorado wins 81-75

6:00E Monmouth vs St. Peter’s (TBD)

Talk about your early risers! Monmouth welcomes back four starters, including All-NEC guard Jeremy Goode, but lost their big people from a year ago and is 7-3 ATS on the road. St. Peter’s was 6-24 two seasons ago and believes they can finish .500 with a veteran cast back. The Peacocks believe juco forward Jeron Belin could be the reason they have success. St. Pete’s has covered 16 of last 21 games. St.Peter's wins 58-34

8:00E Drexel vs Niagara (-9.5)

Besides St. Peter’s from the MAAC, Niagara is another team from the conference looking to get an early start to the day. The Purple Eagles are perennial contender in their conference and have a veteran backcourt to go along with all-MAAC performer Bilal Benn. Drexel was a surprise team in the CAA last season and will look to build on that foundation with leading returning scorer Gerald Colds and senior Leon Spencer. The Dragons hope to be breathing fire off OT loss to St. Joe’s, yet are 6-17-3 ATS off spread loss. Niagara wins 76-69

10:00E Clemson vs Liberty (+10.5)

Clemson lost a lot of ability from last year’s squad, however coach Oliver Purnell brought in his best recruiting class to play along with holdovers Trevor Booker and point guard Demontez Stitt. The Tigers are 9-3 ATS against teams with winning home record. Liberty was 23-12 last season, but lost talented freshmen Brolin Floyd and Seth Curry, who decided to transfer to bigger schools. Kyle Ohman and Jesse Sanders are main returning starters. Clemson wins 79-39

Noon E Northeastern vs Siena (-8.5)

Siena is the overwhelming choice to make a third consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament, something that hasn’t happened in this conference in 20 years. Four starters and Sixth Man of the Year in the conference gives the Saints a formidable group. During lunch it would be smart idea to check this contest out and catch a glimpse of Matt Janning, a versatile all-around shooter for Northeastern. He’ll face a Saints team that is 7-1 ATS in non-conference action.

2:00E UALR vs Tulsa (-16.5)

Arkansas-Little Rock bade farewell to four seniors who helped them to back-to-back Sun Belt divisional titles. This means more than ever they will be dependent on coach Steve Shields stifling defensive principles and they are 8-2 ATS in last 10 road games. With Memphis no longer a sure thing in C-USA, Tulsa is ready to move up and claim the league crown. The return of senior center Jerome Jordan and fellow senior guard Ben Uzoh makes this a real possibility. The Golden Hurricane is 24-9-2 ATS following a SU win of more than 20 points.

4:00E Temple vs Georgetown (-8.5)

Senior guard Ryan Brooks and junior forward Lavoy Allen are Temple’s only returning starters and they will try to improve upon the Owls recent 1-4 ATS mark against the Big East. Georgetown appears poised to rebound from last year’s disappointing season, with Chris Wright and Austin Freeman giving them explosive backcourt. Center Greg Monroe showed enough to almost enter NBA Draft after freshman campaign but wisely came back for second season. The Hoyas have a ways to go to gain the trust of basketball bettors with 5-15-1 ATS record in last 21 tilts.

6:00E Charlotte vs. Duke (TBD )

Duke has handily won its first two games without its full complement of players; however will welcome back guard Nolan Smith who was suspended two games for playing in an unsanctioned summer league. Veteran players like Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer more than made up for the difference. Charlotte won last night 75-61 over Elon, behind Shamari Spears 23 points. Duke is 9-3 ATS after allowing 50 or less points in last game. This is contest is part of the pre-season NIT and he winner will advance to the semifinals at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 25.

8:00E Gonzaga vs Michigan State (-11)

For the first time in years, Gonzaga doesn’t look like a Top 15 team with frontcourt wiped out. Versatile guard Matt Bouldin is the one remaining stud, with Steven Gray and Demetri Goodson solid backcourt companions. The Bulldogs are 4-12 ATS against teams with winning record, though seldom as underdog. What does second-ranked Michigan State do for encore after being national runner-up? Find ways to improve with deep and talent-laden roster under coach Tom Izzo. The Spartans are 11-3-1 ATS off a by 20 or more.

10:00E Memphis vs Kansas (-11)

How quickly the mighty reload. Less than two years removed from national championship, Kansas is a nearly unanimous preseason No.1. The talent is deep and the addition of guard Xavier Henry, gives coach Bill Self a wing player that can go inside or out, something missing a season ago. Kansas is on 27-9-1 ATS run. Senior G Doneal Mack is the only player back for Memphis with more than 10 starts, as they start a new era with Josh Pastner now as coach. A falloff is expected but how much is to be determined. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS in last eight non-conference clashes.

Televised Tilt of C-USA Action

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane gave a very good accounting of themselves but came up short against highly ranked Boise State 28-21as nine-point home underdogs. As opposed to 45-0 Oklahoma destruction, Tulsa coach Todd Graham was pleased with what he saw this time.

“No, our boys battled hard,” Graham said. “This is the highest ranked team we’ve played. They are a great team, and they have one of the best offenses in the nation, they are really explosive. We fought and battled hard.”

Another positive byproduct is the emergence sophomore quarterback G.J. Kinne. As compared to the last several seasons, where 300 or more passing days were the norm, Kinne is an accomplished runner and opposing teams can no longer sit in pass coverage since he will take off and scamper for a first down.

The Golden Hurricane (4-2, 4-1-1 ATS) need to do a much better job in pass protection, surrendering 23 sacks, among the worst in the nation. This is the only road game in four of five contests and Tulsa is 3-9 ATS in road sandwich.

UTEP (2-4 SU&ATS) is seeking to bounce back, upsetting then unbeaten Houston one week and falling at Memphis 35-20 as a single point favorite the next. With half the season to go, it’s all about consistency for the Miners. UTEP has conceded 34.8 points per game, having faced Kansas, Texas and Houston’s high-powered offenses. The players refuse to blame the tough competition for lack of containment.

“That’s an excuse,” said linebacker Jeremy Springer. “To be a great defense, you have to play great against great teams. I think we’re better (than last year), but we’ve had a lot of little mistakes.” This is the first of two home games for UTEP and the visitor is 12-5 ATS in this series.

For Tulsa, it’s back to C-USA action, trying to win the West Division and they are currently tied with upstart SMU at 2-0. The Golden Hurricane defense deserves props, allowing 18.2 points per game and limiting opposing teams to 3.0 yards per carry. Tulsa is 17-4 ATS when they allow 50 to 100 rushing yards.

UTEP can tie Tulsa in C-USA action with the upset and they are 7.5-point home underdogs at DiamondSportsbook.com. The Golden Hurricane is 3-1 on the road and the Miners are 9-3 ATS vs. teams with winning road record. How UTEP will play has been determined early, as they average 459.5 yards of total offense in their two wins and 268.8 yards of offense in their four defeats. Tulsa is 4-1 ATS off a loss and the favorite has failed to cover the last four times (1-3 SU).
Watch the total carefully, since in the last six meetings these two teams have averaged 82 points per game.

ESPN has this C-USA conflict at 8 Eastern.

Tulsa looks for the upset of Boise State

More than one person circled this game as a potential downfall for an unbeaten season for Boise State. The Broncos have only played one real complete game, which was against Bowling Green, winning 49-14. Boise State’s (5-0, 4-0 ATS) quest for perfection continues in Tulsa, where another offensive-minded team is awaiting.

It will be of interest to see the mood of the Broncos after a sleep-walking 34-16 performance against Cal-Davis at Boise, gaining a season-low 101 yards on the ground.

“I’m frustrated with a couple different phases,” Boise State coach Chris Petersen said. “Too many penalties, when you can’t score inside the 4 and 5 yard line when you have multiple tries, that’s frustrating.

“We’ll have their attention without question here and get a few things corrected.”

Coach Peterson would never say publicly, but he knows this is great opportunity to showcase his team for the pollsters, to a national cable audience against a 4-1 Tulsa club that has respectable reputation nationally.

Boise State’s 21st ranked defense is sure to be tested by Tulsa, though this is not the offensive juggernaut of the last few seasons. Tulsa offense averages 414.2 yards per game (35th), however that is against defenses that have allowed 413 YPG. In other words, the Golden Hurricane (3-1 ATS) is only average based on the competition.

Boise State needs to do a better job finishing scoring drives. They have scored touchdowns on just 16 of 27 red-zone trips, including six visits that resulted in zero points. The Broncos have covered the spread seven straight times and nine of last 11 and are 6-1 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.

Tulsa needs a fast start to grab the momentum, which in absorbing challenge since nobody has scored in the first quarter against Boise State. Quarterback G.J. Kinne, ranks seventh in FBS passer rating (don’t ask how that works) and has thrown for 1,142 yards with 10 touchdowns to only two interceptions. Tulsa has been balanced in getting into the end zone with nine rushing touchdowns and 11 through the air. The Golden Hurricane has three prime time contests ahead, but a win here brings a great deal of attention to team that is 6-2 ATS as home underdog since 2003.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Boise State posted as 9.5-point favorites, but the Broncos are just 3-8 ATS in the first of two road games. Coach Peterson’s squad is 12-3 ATS vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game on the season. Tulsa’s defense ranks 27th nationally at 299.2 yards per game and can’t afford a shootout since they are 3-13 ATS when they allow 28 or more points over the last three seasons.

These teams were WAC partners earlier this decade, with Tulsa 0-4 and 2-2 ATS. This is a rare treat for Coach Todd Graham’s squad and Tulsa is 7-3-1 ATS hosting Top 25 teams.

ESPN has the coverage commencing at 8 Eastern.