When did people think the NBA became Fixed?

The NBA Finals are just days away and this nagging feeling has been bothering me for some time. For years, even decades, there has been a public perception that professional basketball is run by a higher power than the players and coaches. It has become assumed in the thoughts of the general public and by the masses that either wager on or follow the NBA that enough (not every) games are predetermined similar to professional wrestling.

I’ve personally heard this for years and have become increasingly fascinated, especially come playoff time, when the discussion and contemplation reach a fever pitch.

For me, it’s the “why factor” and wondered why elements changed from things like aliens in Roswell, NM and the U.S. Government setting up 9/11 in New York City, to the “accepted” point of view by so many that follow or bet on the NBA that it is in some way fixed.

While perusing numerous forums to see what people are thinking as I usually do, I was struck this year more than ever about comments that people shared about the NBA playoffs.

Among the various quotes found were these

“The Lakers will be in the Finals because that what (David) Stern wants.”

“The Suns and Magic have no shot (in conference finals), they (the NBA one would surmise) want the Celtics and Lakers for TV ratings.”

“Kobe (Bryant) will get every call and the Lakers will win the NBA Finals again, the series will have to go 7 to get max dollars for the league.”

While these statements in and of themselves are harmless, the follow up comments by almost everyone were in agreement.

For those under the age of 30, the single greatest impact for this belief was referee Tim Donaghy being caught and prosecuted for admitting betting on games. For the suspicious mind, this created validation of belief, that yes; it was very possible to fix a NBA game. While Donaghy stuck to his story of not fixing games, public perception was altered in their minds the fix was in.

Trying to understand where this idea was formulated in the first place, possibly it starts with the history of championship teams.

The NBA more than any other sports league, has the best teams being crowned champions. It remains the last bastion in sports where a team doesn’t just get hot and win the whole thing. How else could one explain how other the Houston Rockets of 1995-96, they are the only team other than a top three seed to win a NBA title since the current 16-team format was changed in 1984. The Rockets (sixth seed) were the defending NBA champs at the time and suffered an injury-riddled regular season before getting healthy late and became back-to-back champions.

In one way it’s easy for people to be jaded. Boston won 11 titles in 13 years in the late1950’s and 60’s and 17 overall. The Los Angeles Lakers lost to the Celtics in the finals six times in the 1960’s and have 15 titles if you count the Minneapolis Lakers who won five of the first eight when the NBA was formulated.

The Chicago Bulls won six in eight years with Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen and more recently, Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs captured four rings in nine years. Add them up and that is 42 titles among four teams in the league’s 63 years of existence, 66.6 percent and the number is guaranteed to go higher with this year’s finalists.

A good friend who I can talk candidly about these types of topics who works on the Vegas Strip doesn’t believe games are fixed, because of fixed limits on NBA contests and the lack of unusual movement, plus the sportsbooks themselves have a stake because if it were true this was happening, nobody would ever bet on professional basketball again.

I questioned a professional gambler in Nevada I’ve known for some time.

His name is Sal, who bets daily. “It is at times understandable why amateur bettors would believe the NBA has games that appear fixed, it just isn’t factual. If the league was so desperate for money and ratings, why wouldn’t every series go six or seven games, every year?

“In order for games to be fixed, you need a common denominator. Somebody that has money and wants to make more and someone else who needs money and once they taste it, wants more.”

“No NBA player is in need of cash other than maybe a 12th man on any team and they have no influence on the outcome. Would they be a source of information about team problems with the coach or girl friend problems, sure, but do you chase around making max bets at all different outlets on this information without a track record. Not me.”

Sal added, “Referees are the easiest targets because they believe they are underpaid, but their true influence has to do more with totals, since they can either blow or swallow the whistle.”
Nevertheless, public perception is still prevalent.

I put the question of fixed games in the NBA to the StatFox Forum and by the time I had to write this article, every person responded with a “yes”.

The responses were numerous, but all in agreement.

“All are fixed, easy money”.

“….billions being bet .......now when that many can control the masses who wager...why wouldn't they fix the games when the money is tilt by a 80/20 margin it is simple economics”

“Of course it’s fixed. One ref gets arrested and says I’m not the only one, and no one wants to investigate who else?

“Yes I do believe all sports are fixed. The reason is quite simple to me and that is the fact that with the amount of cash being wagered on games, there is no way they will leave the outcome to pure chance or luck.”

“Yes-because anytime money is involved it corrupts”

“Did the caveman invent fire? Is Ed "Too Tall" Jones to tall?

It certainly is intriguing subject and while there is no way to prove it one way or another, the public has spoken and they see it only one way.

Of course your comments welcome.

Boston needs a little magic(?)

No way, come on, it’s impossible, not a chance in you know where, but yet…

The Boston Celtics have gone into some weird time warp machine, going from looking old and downtrodden, to younger and hotter than Justin Bieber and back again.

The Celtics by the end of Game 5’s 113-92 beat down looked like they had just rode on nearby Space Mountain at Disney World backwards, without seat belts.

For those that love the city of Boston and their sports teams, this series is taking on a theme a little too familiar, with the Bruins coughing up a 3-0 series lead to Philadelphia earlier this month.

The Celtics are 23-11 ATS when playing with double revenge and might need Lance Burton to put an end to Orlando’s magic. The single greatest denominator in this series is confidence. Boston stole it in Game 1 and Orlando has taken it back with two victories.

How else can you explain Boston being flawless on both ends of the floor, finding the open shooter to make baskets and closing out on Orlando shooters at just the right instant to make them miss.

Yet, in the space of less than two playoff games, Doc River’s team can’t find an open makeable shot and looks hesitant and half step slow on offense and is running towards Magic shooters, instead of having them guarded.

And what about Stan Van Gundy’s squad? For three games Orlando couldn’t hit the water with a shot at Disney's Blizzard Beach Water Park and Jameer Nelson vs. Rajon Rondo looked like the biggest mismatch since Floyd Mayweather Jr. hammered Arturo Gatti.

However, a great coaching adjustment by Van Gundy has Nelson finding freedom off screens and the Boston big men are uncertain of Jameer’s next move and he’s put them in a full Nelson, whether he’s decided to drive, shoot or dish. The Magic might have unleashed another weapon as Rashard Lewis stopped thinking and has started just playing basketball.

Orlando is 11-3 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more this season and their increased intensity and execution has Rivers team reeling.

Glen Davis is a maybe after suffering concussion, leaving a frustrated Kendrick Perkins and Rasheed Wallace to do battle with Dwight Howard in the paint, who is invoking performances from yesteryear. (From Elias Sports - Dwight Howard registered 21 points, 10 rebounds and five blocked shots to help Orlando avoid playoff elimination in Game Five on Wednesday night. Howard had 32 points, 16 rebounds and four blocked shots to help Orlando avoid a series sweep in Game Four. Only one other player has recorded 20-or-more points, 10-or-more rebounds and at least four blocked shots in consecutive games with his team facing elimination in both games: Elvin Hayes in 1979.)

Boston is a 3.5-point favorite according to most sportsbooks, with total of 187.5. Can a battered and bruised white-clad club muster Celtic pride and close out this series? Yes they can, but they have to make adjustments.

Orlando has raised the ante on physical play and the Celtics have been retaliating with foolish fouls instead of matching grit for grit. Bang with the Magic just enough to not be whistled for fouls and don’t get out-muscled and out-worked on the glass, otherwise they fall to 13-30 ATS at home after being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more. Passive won’t work and neither will overly aggressive, take the fight to them.

On the high screens Nelson is running off of, attack him with big man, with arms spread to reduce Jameer’s line of sight. Nelson has never been accused of being a Steve Nash-type passer. Force him make immediate decisions with ball, not his strength under duress.

Boston players also have to stay with their own man. In the first three contests the Magic converted 20 three-pointers, in the last two wins; Orlando long distance shooters have ripped the nets for 23 from “downtown”.

Superman and friends are 24-13 ATS as an underdog over the last two years and they know as well as Boston, for all intents and purposes this is an elimination game for both teams. Though 93 teams have tried and failed in the NBA playoffs being down 3-0, if Boston were to lose, most would bet against history.

ESPN has Game 6 at 8:30 Eastern and one can only imagine what people from Bean-Town are thinking.

Lakers attempt to regain upper hand

What’s the old saying, “When mama’s not happy, nobody’s happy”. A form of that saying is taking place in the Los Angeles Lakers locker room, with Kobe Bryant taking the place of mama.

“We have to play with a sense of urgency,” Bryant said after his team lost in the desert for second time, “and understand this team can beat us.”

Kobe, when asked what was wrong, didn’t mince words and tersely stated his feelings. “We lost the game,” Bryant said, “because our defense sucked.

“Our focus was on the other side of the floor, which doesn’t win championships. So we need to get back to ground zero when it comes to that.”

That’s the conundrum with the 2009-10 Lakers squad, every good stretch of basketball means “Margaritaville” and the passion and intensity necessary dwindles with prosperity.

Bryant had 74 points, 21 assists and 16 rebounds in two games in downtown Phoenix, but didn’t get enough assistance from his supporting cast.

“Kobe had a great game,” Lamar Odom said about Game 4. “Too bad we weren’t able to come along with him.”

Los Angeles returns to the Staples Center where they are 41-7 (21-26-1 ATS) this season and needs to reestablish control of the series which is tied at 2-2.

The Lakers are 12-3 ATS after three or more consecutive Over’s this year and while Kobe is complaining about the defensive effort, other wonder if the Suns zone defense has gotten into the heads of L.A. players.

"It's the zone," Lakers center Andrew Bynum admitted. "We're settling for outside jump shots. They were out there moving that ball, they were confident playing at home and they really just shot the ball well. They had everybody spaced out so everybody's running around."

Though, as coach Phil Jackson pointed out, his team has shot 48.3 and 49.5 percent in the last two losses while averaging 107.5 points per game, but does some of the hesitation on the Lakers offense carry over unto the defensive end, causing lapses in concentration for a club not known for “Terminator” single-mindedness.

What the Lakers zone offense has also lacked is getting the ball into high post consistently, with cutters running baseline or weakside cutters slashing to the rim. While Ron Artest is still a fine defensive player, the loss of Trevor Ariza hurts the Lakers in this situation, since he has greater quickness, understands how to cut more effectively to the basket and is a more consistent three-point shooter than Artest.

Phoenix is bubbling with confidence and is 14-6 ATS in road encounters after a combined score of 205 points or more in a trio of tilts this season. Channing Frye found his misplaced jump shot and the Suns reserves lambasted the Lakers bench 54-20 after being mildly ineffective for the first three games. "The bench played fantastic," the Suns' Steve Nash said.

Coach Alvin Gentry is earning his coaching “onions” as he left his bench players in the game for almost nine minutes of the final quarter, since they had produced 18-3 run, essentially putting Los Angeles away.

"We believe in those guys and they really believe in themselves," Gentry said. "I thought they were much better defensively than they were offensively, and they were great offensively."

Though no Phoenix player would publicly admit this, they know a Game 5 upset gives them best chance to win the series with Saturday’s conflict back at Planet Orange. A Game 7 win in L.A. would a monumental task to pull off for Phoenix.

Sportsbooks have the Lakers as 7.5-point pick, with total of 218. Pau Gasol and the rest of his teammates have to play like they did during eight-game postseason winning streak (7-1 ATS) and they are 18-5 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996. The Suns are 33-14 ATS after allowing 105 points or more and will have to solve the Los Angeles team in the yellow uniforms since they are 1-7 and 2-6 ATS in L.A.

TNT continues with the series at 9:00 Eastern and the Lake Show is 8-0 OVER after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more this season.

Home Rules in NBA West Finals

People tend to hear and then add their own personal twist to what they just listened to, which ultimately tends to change or exaggerate the original topic. The Phoenix Suns had gone from a terrible defense team to one that was competent after the All-Star break this season. The more games Phoenix won and their players and coaches talked about improved defense being the difference, the more the media and public bought into it.

After holding Portland and San Antonio to 95.9 points per game in their first two series triumphs, the mantra was viewed as the new and improved Phoenix Suns.

The Los Angeles Lakers being more talented, with better offensive weapons, quickly put Alan Gentry’s team more into proper perspective, averaging 126 points in the first two games against the Suns.

Gentry is an affable coach, quick to give praise to his team and at least publicly, measures his disappointment when he sees a lack of effort or execution.

For Game 3, Gentry knew a couple of areas that needed immediate improvement.

He started with realizing his club was no match to play the Lakers straight-up defensively and that doubling different L.A. players was failing as badly as British Petroleum’s attempt to solve the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Gentry knew his team was still below average defensively, but was capable of making SOME stops, which might be enough to knock off the Lakers if the offense continued to be productive.
The head coach and assistant coaches went to a zone defense, which took Kobe Bryant and his teammates out of the triangle offense. Gentry and his staff hoped Los Angeles might become content to fire away from long range and kept his fingers crossed they wouldn’t bury too many. Though the Lakers made nine three-point baskets, it took them 32 attempts to reach that level, lowering their record to 7-3 ATS as road underdogs.

Offensively, Phoenix got aggressive taking the ball to the basket. Forget the talk the Lakers being Lemuel Gulliver from the book “Gulliver’s Travels”, where he washed ashore after a shipwreck and was captured by the people Lilliput (the Suns were bring characterized as the same size as Lilliputians), being one-twelfth the size of a normal human being.

The Suns went at their “giant” foes with abandon and ended up shooting 42 free throws (37 made) to their counterpart’s smallish total of 20. The 118-109 victory brought Phoenix back into the series and gave them hope for the next contest where they are 37-10 and 29-16-2 ATS.
Two main players on the floor changed the direction of the series. Amare Stoudemire was virtually unstoppable with 42 points and 11 rebounds and Lamar Odom returned to the planet earth, with 10 points on 4-14 shooting and had as many fouls as rebounds (6).

Though it probably won’t show in Game 4, Los Angeles has had ample rest, however another loss in the desert could make the series a far greater challenge, forced to play every other day, where they are 4-12 ATS with one day off.

The money is mostly riding on the Lakers, now a one-point favorite after being a 1.5-point underdog to open, with the total higher yet again at 222 after three straight Over’s.

Kobe and company are 18-7 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more in three consecutive contests and 23-12 OVER having won two of their last three games this season. Phoenix will try and square up the series and is 22-8 ATS after a tilt where both teams scored 105 points or more. The team with shaggy-haired point guard and fractured nose is 41-22 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season.

TNT will against provide this West Finals conflict starting at 9:00 Eastern with coaching adjustments very important. The home team is on 8-1 ATS run between these Pacific Division competitors.

Boston on the brink

Talk about anti-climatic; this is exactly the situation the online sports betting world is facing in tonight’s Orlando and Boston Game 4 matchup. Only four times in the history of major sports has a team comeback from a 3-0 deficit (the city of Boston teams has been involved in half of them, one good one bad) and it has never happened on the hardwood.

The Celtics are headed to the NBA Finals whether it be tonight or later this week, but how did the veteran team come so far so fast after playing .500 basketball for 3 ½ months and being a near calamity for backers against the spread?

In hindsight, Boston had variables that were not present to the naked eye, but were just below the surface.

The Celtics have several players that had been thru every imaginable NBA condition. Two years ago they were able to finally taste a championship and thou they failed a year ago, Boston had far less expectations placed on them this season.

While many ranted (including the person that wrote this article) this was just an old team that needed to start refocusing with a different cast, their coach Doc Rivers saw something else.

“This being an older group, it’s probably easier for me to get their focus in the playoffs,” Rivers said. “The goal is right in front of them.”

Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen might not be able to bring an outstanding performance night after night like in the past, but as their confidence grew in the postseason, each has had spurts of greatness and played true team basketball, with Boston 11-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs.

Boston has been constructed in way that promotes team play and that has the ability to stifle opponents that are not mentally strong.

Beyond Dwayne Wade, Miami lacked the physical and mental toughness to compete with Boston and fell 4-1. Cleveland was believed to be on their way to being crowned the kings of the NBA, instead they still lacked the scoring power beyond LeBron James, with outside shooters that could drain shots all day against inferior competition, but not under pressure by a defensive team that gave no quarter.

Orlando, the defending Eastern champions, had marched thru the first two rounds of the playoffs like Heidi Montag adding car miles to plastic surgeon.

The Magic thwarted the Celtics a year ago in the East semis, but Garnett wasn’t there. The 2010 version of Rajon Rondo is superior to the one Orlando faced a year ago and Kendrick Perkins, Tony Allen and Glen Davis are all better players one season later, as witnessed by their complete thrashing of the blue-clad squad 94-71. Boston is 20-7 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more since the “Big 3” and others were assembled.

This reporter admits to picking Orlando to win the series, but one nagging question was still out there. With Hedo Turkoglu and to a lesser degree Courtney Lee no longer part of Magic contingent, who was going to make big shots at crunch time?

Vince Carter has long been known for being less than clutch in the final five minutes of a contest. Dwight Howard needs to be setup to score and let’s be totally frank, Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, Matt Barnes and others would never be accused of blood doping, since it would have to go thru their hearts, which they have not shown in this series to date. Orlando might be 17-4 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more, however they look much closer to the team that is 0-4 as visiting underdogs.

Sportsbooks have Boston as seven-point favorite with total of 187.

When Celtics players were asked about their hockey counterparts blowing 3-0 playoff lead this spring and if outside influences could make them less mentally strong, Paul Pierce said this.
“This team is not complacent,” Pierce said. “We’re too close to our goals. You’ve got a team that’s won the championship so we understand what it takes. We understand the mental toughness that you’ve got to have at this point in the season. So I don’t see any slippage from us and, hopefully, we can close this thing out on Monday.”

The total is at a series low and Boston is 12-2 UNDER after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game (second time in the series), while Orlando is 11-3 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games.

Game 4 is set for 8:30 Eastern on ESPN.

Suns need to play D-Fence

Arizona has been in the news quite a bit lately and various government agencies have been under attack. In response to this, they have become downright defensive, which is something Suns fans are looking for from their team playing at home trailing the Los Angeles Lakers 2-0.

Phoenix has willing approved 128 and 124 points to the Lakers in the first two supposed conflicts with Los Angeles in the Western Finals, which might be considered passable if this was an old-school ABA contest or an All-Star clash. The problem is that neither is true, and the Lakers have scored more than George Clooney and Brad Pitt in their younger days.
Nothing has worked on the defensive end for the Suns that even coach Alvin Gentry let his guard down after Game 2.

"I'm open for suggestions," Gentry said on his way out of the interview room late Wednesday night.

"Even from the media."

A better place to start is with his players. With all the talk of who is or is not legal in the Grand Canyon state, Gentry has to convince his players that getting up and guarding your man is perfectly legal, but it doesn’t do much good to let the player you are supposed to be guarding to around you like a bull and matador confrontation, in which the outcome is you are gored for another basket.

"Every time we tried to make an adjustment to slow them down," Gentry said, "they go somewhere else."

Phoenix has tried to double Kobe Bryant; he passes to open man, while still scoring enough points himself. The Suns put two players on Pau Gasol on the paint, yet at 7’0 holding the ball over his head looking for open teammate, he looks like an eighth grader playing keep away from a group of first graders. Gasol has found Lamar Odom, Ron Artest and others effortlessly.
Things have gotten so bad for Phoenix even Jordan Farmar (13.5 points per game) and Shannon Brown (10.0 PPG) have looked like they could start for any of lottery teams the way they have scored in this series.

“Well, what can you say?" Gentry said. "We are just having a hard time. We can't slow them down. I thought we played well offensively, but every time we tried to make an adjustment to slow them down, they go somewhere else.

“And, you know, you do a great job on Kobe, and I thought we did. Then they go to Pau and we double-team Pau and there's Lamar, and we get it out of Lamar's hand and Jordan Farmar makes shots. And there's a reason they're the world champs. There's a good reason they're the world champs."

The Suns return home where they are 36-10, 28-16-2 ATS and have to find answers quickly. Maybe its wear Amare Stoudemire glasses that are far-sighted so they have to get closer to guard the players in purple.

What Phoenix has to do more than anything is play team defense. It’s obvious the Suns are not very sound doubling players on continual basis; instead each player has to make it his responsibility to guard his own man. If Kobe scores 50 or even 60 so be it, you guard your man and box-out on the boards.

Make the Lakers uncomfortable, they’ve played like a bunch of guys having a having a good time walking along Santa Monica beach. Throw live snakes on the floor before the game to get their attention, prove you mean business and make them understand from the start this isn’t going to be a vacation in the desert.

"You saw what the Thunder (Oklahoma City) did," Jared Dudley said. "That's our mindset."

Oddsmakers have Phoenix as 1.5-point favorites and has to take advantage of the crowd and make shots to make L.A. unsettled. They are 1-8 ATS in road games when their opponents make 39 to 45 percent of their three-pointers. The Suns have to make the Lakers pay for their limited defensive pressure and are 24-7 ATS vs. defensive teams forcing 14 or less turnovers a game the second half of this season.

Those doing sports betting presently anticipate there is almost no ceiling on the total that has sky-rocketed to 219 and Steve Nash’s pals need a lower scoring contest and they are 20-10 UNDER after allowing 100 points or more three straight games. Kobe and company have the ability to shift gears and are 7-0 UNDER on the road after covering the spread in two or more consecutive times.

TNT has what is basically a do-or-die tilt for the Suns at 8:30 Eastern and they are 15-5 ATS at Planet Orange having lost two of their last three games.

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Respect your elders

Common on, be honest, you had the Boston Celtics playing in the NBA Finals right along with the thought of changing the oil in your car. The truth is you didn’t really believe either was going to happen, but it sounds good right now, having learned what veteran pride and know how can do.

While much of corporate America looks to slice payroll, force more early retirements and generally speaking hire a cheaper labor force without necessarily having a better replacements, the Boston basketball franchise embraces the elderly.

No question it is a fine line to walk, as for months Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen were having a difficult time keeping up with their hefty reputations, let alone playing a higher caliber of basketball. Boston limped into the playoffs with 3-7 SU and ATS record to close the season and most basketball fans and sports bettors thought the only way the light goes on for the Celtics was the “Clapper”.

For all that had gone wrong with Boston (27-26, 20-31-2 ATS since Dec. 27 until the end of the regular season), once the playoffs began, youth was served.

Rajon Rondo strapped the (aging) veteran stars on his back went took off. Rondo destroyed Miami and as that series wore on, one by one the “Big Three” from the Celtics joined him as a cohesive unit. Much like a younger person showing an older adult how to use their cell phone and various apps, Rondo got Boston rolling and they are 10-3 SU and ATS in the postseason, including punching winners on the last five contests.

After the C’s unceremoniously chopped up Cleveland, Orlando was supposed to finish of this Celtics revival. The Magic were younger, quicker and reportedly hungrier, playing the best basketball of any team for 2 ½ months.

Then something weird happened, something that would make legendary Red Auerbach smile. Boston went to Central Florida and ripped Orlando apart. Word was the Rondo and Jameer Nelson matchup was supposed to be special; instead it’s been the like Buffalo Bills in a Super Bowl.

The way the other Magic guards and forwards (except for J.J. Redick and Vince Carter in non-pressure situations) have wilted against Boston, you would have thought the games were being played outdoors on Church Street.

For roughly 35 minutes of each of the first two games, the way Orlando was scrambling on defense, you would swear it was 6 on 5, with Boston always finding the open man. The Magic might be 26-14 ATS having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season, but they look like a befuddled bunch.

Online sports betting outlets have Boston as 3.5-point favorite, with total of 190 and they are 25-14 ATS after a win by six points or less. The Celtics have controlled the tempo series after series and is 13-3 UNDER against teams with winning records. Orlando still has a heartbeat, but is 15-31 ATS off two or more consecutive home losses and 9-1 UNDER after a close loss by three points or less.

ESPN will have Game 3 at 8:30 Eastern, with the favorite 1-6 and 0-7 ATS since May 17 of last year.

Better bring shades for Suns and Lakers in Game 2

One of the wonderful aspects of visiting Tinsel Town is you never know when the stars will be out. You could be standing in line at legendary Pink’s Hot Dogs or roast beef haven Phillipes and Sandra Bullock or Tom Hanks might be waiting in line with you. The same can also be true on the hardwood, where every now and again the Los Angeles Lakers and their stars give a memorable performance at the Staples Center.

There is always a bit of the unknown when a NBA team has a long layoff, you can never be sure what it means good or bad. The Orlando Magic appeared to be effected negatively with their extra time off against Boston, but the Lakers played refreshed and looked better than a Santa Monica sunset.

Kobe Bryant was in “the zone” scoring 40 points on 23 shot attempts. Bryant appeared more than any other L.A. player to have benefitted from the down time. "My legs benefited a lot," Bryant said. "I was able to take some time off and just get stronger, get my legs stronger, body stronger."

However, Bryant wasn’t the only Lakers player that played rejuvenated and Phil Jackson’s squad proved just how challenging they are to defeat when they all committed to common goal.

Lamar Odom had 19 points and 19 boards (seven on offense) and was dialed in throughout.
Paul Gasol was 10 for 13 shooting, even converting on a couple of almost impossible buckets for a man his size. Derek Fisher was defensively possessed in staying with Steve Nash and though he has 13 assists, Fisher and his teammates limited the former MVP to 13 points on only 10 shots.

Two keys for Phoenix coming into the series were rebounding and bench strength. The Suns were outrebounded by eight and their reserves were out-pointed 44-35 in losing by 21.

"They played great, one of the best games I've seen them play in the playoffs this season," Suns coach Alvin Gentry said. "Kobe kind of controlled the whole game. I thought we could have withstood the game that he had ... but when he's making his jumper like that, there's not a whole lot you can do about it."

Phoenix is going to have to play much better defense as L.A. was fearless doing what they wanted offensively. (Shannon Brown’s dunk attempt for example) The Suns are 31-13 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season and if Kobe stays percolating, they must negate the rest of his teammates since you aren’t going to be on the winning side permitting 58 percent shooting.

“They're probably going to continue to be taller than us as the series goes on, so we've got to ... make everything as tough as possible," Steve Nash wryly stated. "We played hard, but we didn't make enough shots, and we had a few too many breakdowns."

Subtract Grant Hill and the other four Phoenix starters shot 59.5 percent, the issue was they generated only 42 attempts. If the Suns expect to tie series and move spread record to 20-10 after one or more losses, the starters have to get more shots at the rim and Channing Frye and Jared Dudley can’t put up combined 2 for 13 numbers.

Phoenix is a seven-point underdogs, with total leaping to 216. For those that use online sports betting it’s impossible to ignore the Lakers are 11-1 ATS after three or more consecutive Over’s and 17-6 against the spread in home games when playing only their second game in week. Coach Jackson’s club is 13-4 UNDER after a wipeout win by 20 points or more.

TNT will again have the coverage of Game 2 from LaLa-Land at 9:00 Eastern with the desert dogs 14-4 UNDER after they allowed a shooting percentage of 55 percent or higher.

NBA Western Conference Finals Preview

(1) L.A. Lakers vs. (3) Phoenix

Talking to a number of various wise guy bettors living in Las Vegas, one conclusion was evident before the playoffs started, yes the Los Angeles Lakers looked vulnerable but were still the safest bet to win another title and the Phoenix Suns were the best long shot among the top four seeds from either conference to become the upset champions of the NBA.

Both those assessments have proven correct, however one will be kicked to the curb with the West Finals at hand. Here is a look at what each team has to do to reach the The Finals.

One aspect that is often forgotten in the NBA playoffs is how very good teams can pick up momentum. The Lakers closed the regular season 4-7 SU and ATS and were like Whitney Houston’s recent concert tour, very unimpressive. More than one sports fan believed Oklahoma City had a fair shot to upset Los Angeles in the first round and after they suffered 21-point loss to the Thunder to tie the series at two, that belief no longer seemed so far-fetched.

However, since then, L.A. has gotten serious about basketball again and has won six straight, covering five times and now another championship ring is in sight.

I apologize in advance, but there is not getting around it (literally), the size of the Lakers’ changes how teams can attack them. With Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom, it just doesn’t leave much room in the middle, which helps takes away the one inside player the Suns have in Amare Stoudemire.

L.A. guards and wing players can be super aggressive defensively, knowing what they have behind them. Ron Artest is not the defender he was a few years ago, but what he’s lost in quickness he makes up for in smarts and he will try to attach himself at the hip of Jason Richardson or Jared Dudley when he enters the game.

Phoenix has picked up a reputation as being good defensive team, while they are not as lame as when Mike D’Antoni was coach; they are far from good, mostly just average. With the talk of Grant Hill being a defensive demon, that’s all Kobe Bryant needs for a personal challenge.

Remember last year when Denver had all those high effort guys coming off the bench and they actually gave Phil Jackson’s team trouble at first, yet after Game 3 had little impact, that’s what the Lakers do as the series wears on, systematically they take away your strengths and even Derek Fisher becomes more useful knocking down shots. There is a reason why the Lake Show is 5-1 and 4-2 ATS against the Suns at Staples the past three years, they are bigger and better and hard to beat four times.

Since Steve Nash has arrived in the desert with his injury-plagued career in the balance, all he has done is transform Phoenix into the most entertaining team in the NBA and a outfit that has been among the better groups out West. Be that as it may, the window of opportunity is closing and the sense is the entire club and organization knows it.

That creates the first chance for the Suns, desperation, hardly something the Lakers ever feel and when they do, usually nothing good comes from it. (Game 6 Lakers at Boston two years ago comes to mind) Phoenix has to be able to leave all on the floor each night, no Game 1 or Game 4’s against Portland “we just weren’t focused” nights. You only get once chance to beat a champion and if you let it slip, look in the mirror.

Coach Alvin Gentry is credited for making Phoenix a more complete squad than past versions, with greater attention to detail on both ends of the floor. Steve Nash should be able to run circles around Derek Fisher, but his key is drawing the defense to him to make the assist and frustrate the Lakers big men.

Coach Jackson will try to prevent dibble penetration by Nash and make him more a shooter than facilitator, Nash has to defeat this defense by using the screen and role continually with Stoudemire. If successful, this forces other defenders to get involved and the NBA’s best outside shooting team will find itself with many more open looks.

Phoenix can’t let the Lakers play volleyball on the offensive glass; they have to at least be within five boards at all times once the second half starts.

Gentry’s bench has been a difference maker, which is why this desert squad is 22-4 and 19-6-1 ATS since Mar. 14. With how ineffective the L.A. bench is, they need to outscore them nightly by 15 or more points, which place the Suns in far more advantageous spot and could mean heavier minutes for Lakers regulars, this might matter later in the series.

It goes without saying Phoenix has to run, but as they proved against San Antonio, it’s not about running and dunking for layups, it is about beating the Lakers defense back and making the extra pass to find the three-point shooter who is open to bury the shot and wear down the big guys in gold and purple late in games.

Jackson pulled out his clichéd “zen master” card saying Nash carry’s the ball (and Michael Jordan did what in Chicago when Phil was there), but he picked the wrong guy in Nash.

"It's news to me. I'm fortunate. I don't know if I've been called for a carry yet,'' he said after the Suns practiced Saturday, then he added straight-faced: "I've never heard anyone accuse me of carrying it. I mean, the best coach in the league Greg Popovich (of San Antonio) didn't have a problem with it last week.''(Nice subtle rip on the Zen-ster)

As is said in boxing, “contrasting styles make fights”. That will be the case out West, with the Lakers trying to control tempo and have their size be a difference maker, while Phoenix wants to play fast, hit 3’s and make enough defensive stops to matter.

(In my best NBA analyst voice and following all spoken clichés) At the end of the day, the Lakers having a long break before the series, another lengthy break before heading to Arizona, (I'm surprised California government officials are letting the Lakers play in Zona, since Sherrif Joe will want to see Gasol's papers) gives them rest and ample time to make adjustments, which makes them awfully difficult to beat unless the opponent plays great defense.

3Daily Winners Pick- L.A. Lakers (-350) in seven over Phoenix (+290)

NBA Eastern Finals Outlook

(2) Orlando vs (4) Boston

After the Orlando Magic dismissed atrocious Atlanta in four games, an article appeared on the internet, questioning if this team was as good as the one that went to The Finals a year ago. We’ll let the author of that piece further collect his thoughts while we examine the facts, at least as we know them.

Orlando has won all eight assignments in the NBA Playoffs without a loss. An argument could easily be made of those teams in the final four, the Magic have had the path of least resistance, encountering two obviously flawed clubs that any of the other three teams to join them in the middle of May would have also beaten.

In Orlando’s defense, they can only do what is asked of them and have they ever.

Dwight Howard and the Magic are 8-0 and 7-1 ATS in the playoffs. They have won these games by an average of 17.1 points a contest and covered the spread by incredible 8.8 PPG. (There only non-cover was by half a point)

Since Feb. 28, Stan Van Gundy’s team is 28-3; let that sink in a few seconds, 28-3 and equally remarkable 23-7-1 ATS. While LeBron James and Cleveland were resting up at the end of the regular season to be eliminated from the playoffs roughly a month earlier than they expected, Orlando was just getting started. They are 14-0 and 13-1 ATS since Apr. 4.

Just how good has the Magic been in last 31 games, consider they have outscored opposing teams by 436 points or 14.0 PPG. The other three teams left in the postseason did not have that large of a total points differential over 82 games! In other words Orlando is lampooning everyone these days. One other note everyone might have missed, the team with the largest point differential in the NBA was the Magic at +7.5 and since 2004, all but one of the teams that won the NBA title led their conference in this category.

Now that we’ve established just how good Jameer Nelson and his teammates are what about Boston. The Celtics just took down the “chosen” Cavaliers who were supposed to be NBA champions. After an incredibly substandard second half of the season in which Betty White and Abe Vigoda (both were in the now famous Snickers commercial) appeared downright spry compared to the Celtics, they’ve had a playoff renaissance much like Ms. White’s career.

Kevin Garnett has been bedrock solid, playing to his strengths of the mid-range jump shot and being a presence on defense. Ray Allen quietly had a strong second half of the season after hearing trade rumors, driving foes crazy running off screens and draining jump shots. Though his foot speed might not be as good as it was, Allen’s knack of squaring up players on defense and picking their pocket, places the Celtics in advantageous positions.

Paul Pierce is showing signs of life, shooting the ball better and back to taking two dumb fouls a game. Glen Davis and Tony Allen are making contributions off the bench and there was even a Rasheed Wallace sighting, adding a positive contribution here and there.

As good as all these players have played in the first two rounds of the playoffs, none of this occurs without Rajon Rondo. Much like college basketball has become reliant on point guard play, the same is also true among the elite teams in the NBA.

Rondo was the singularly dominant performer in Cleveland series, with his ability on offense and defense and he set the tone for Boston throughout.

After being a deplorable spread team all season, The C’s are 8-3 SU and ATS in the postseason and building confidence.

Part of that feeling is being supplied by coach Doc Rivers. The former Orlando coach is not going to dazzle anyone with his X and O work, which is why he brought in assistant coach Tom Thibodeau to make the strategic moves. Like a smart boss, Rivers understands his strengths and weaknesses and surrounds himself with people that compliment his skill set.
This sets up as fascinating series, especially at point guard with Rondo vs. Nelson. If either gains an edge, their team automatically has a greater chance of winning.

Watching Orlando pass the ball on offense is like a video game or pinball machine. The ball is continually in motion at various angles and if a Magic player is open, he’ll be found. This places a premium on Boston defenders to stay with their man and have arms extended to tip passes or have body parts in passing lanes. If not, the 3-point party starts for Orlando.

Pierce and Allen can certainly matchup with Vince Carter and Matt Barnes and if they can gain the upper hand they could frustrate them since they’ve played more scrimmage games than actual hard-nose basketball recently.

Orlando won three of four meetings this season (2-2 ATS). You can presume the home court not to mean much just like last year playoff series, when the road team won three times. The Magic might be the best team in basketball, nonetheless that doesn’t mean they won’t be tested by this proud bunch from Boston who believes they can win it all again.

3Daily Winners Pick- Orlando (-260) in seven over Boston (+210)

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The King could be overthrown in Boston tonight

LeBron James is supposed to be the best player in the NBA and probably is, but he hasn’t been close to being the best player in this series. King James showed a side of personality not seen often after he gave a lame effort like his teammates in Game 5 debacle.

After losing 120-88 as seven-point home favorites, James had this to say about his 15-point showing.

"I spoil a lot of people with my play," James said. "When you have a bad game here or there, you've had three bad games in a seven-year career, then it's easy to point that out. So you got to be better.

I put a lot of pressure on myself to be out there and be the best player on the court, and when I'm not I feel bad for myself because I'm not going out there and doing the things I can do. But I don't hang my head low or make any excuses about anything that may be going on, because that's not the type of player or person I am."

It’s a bit presumptuous for James to say he’s had three lousy games in his career, but what basketball fans and those rooting for the Cavaliers want to know, where is the burning desire?
Is the elbow a much bigger issue? Does he find the lack proficiency from his teammates appalling? Does he not trust his coach in being knowledgeable to lead this club? Has he mentally checked out thinking about playing somewhere else?

Cleveland is 24-7-1 ATS off a defeat by 10 or more points, but this was one for the record books. No NBA with a regular season win percentage of .700 or higher had ever lost a home playoff game by 30 or more points. (Thanks Elias Sports)

What can the Cavaliers do to send this to Game 7? Having Mike Brown coach his players might help.

For starters if Antwan Jamison is going to not provide points on offense, get him off the floor, he’s a defensive liability. J.J. Hickson was valuable in the latter part of the season; use his intensity and defense to at least do something on one end of the floor.

Brown has to find an answer for Shaq and Zydrunas Ilgauskas to rotate better on weakside passes by Boston, who is feasting in the paint with layups or short jump shots.
Mo Williams either decides to play or should sit. He has yet to guard Rajon Rondo and his offensive production is nil.

Lastly, LeBron has to determine what he wants. His elbow is unquestionably bothering him and he doesn’t trust his own jump shot, passing up at least seven wide open looks he had Tuesday night. But where is the explosiveness to the rim?

Yes, Boston has had a few nice wrinkles to limit James, but does the game’s best player settle for idle dribbles and pass to teammate or use his brute force like in the past and blow to the cup and score or find Cavs teammate standing by himself with wide open look at the bucket with collapsing defense? Interesting to note Cleveland is 2-9 ATS in last 11 outings against teams with winning record.

Boston has outplayed and outhustled its younger opponent and is 7-3 ATS in the postseason. The Celtics don’t want to take any chances.

"We cannot come back here," Kevin Garnett said. "We have to think this is our Game 7 coming up and we cannot afford to have the best team in the league have a Game 7 on their floor. Just not possible."

Oddsmakers have Boston as 1.5-point favorites with total of 196.5, as they go for their second three game winning streak in the playoffs. The C’s are 2-10 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more this season and 17-4 UNDER after a huge blowout victory by 30 or more. Cleveland has its back against the proverbial wall and is 2-5 ATS in last seven as road underdogs and is 16-5 OVER revenging a home massacre loss of 20 points or more.

The biggest deciding factor is LeBron’s mental state. This contest is being played with one day between games and James is shooting 36.1 percent on his meager total of 47 shot attempts, including 0-13 beyond the arc in this East semi-final with less than 48 hours between contests. In the two games Cleveland has won and covered, James is shooting 56.5 percent on 46 shots with two or more days in between outings. The Cavs are 0-6 ATS with one day of rest since April 11.

Game 6 is on ESPN at 8:00 Eastern and if Cleveland can force one more game, they will have two days off between conflicts.

King James to guard Rondo in Game 5, maybe

The spelling might be slightly different, but Rajon Rondo has been very much like Ronco’s famous “Veg-O-Matic”. Rondo has sliced and diced the Cleveland defense and cut up the Cavaliers guards like helpless tomatoes or onions. Even with an up-and-down Game 3 performance, he’s averaging 21.8 points, 13 assists and 8.3 rebounds per contest and is the biggest reason Boston and Cleveland is now best two of three.

NBA playoff basketball is about making adjustments from game to game. Cleveland was more aggressive from the start in Game 3, as LeBron James and his teammates bottled up Boston from the opening tap and free-wheeled around the TD Garden going wherever they wanted in winning 124-95 as one-point underdogs.

Coach Doc Rivers didn’t like his offense or defense in that contest and made two modifications for Sunday’s game. He wanted every defender to create more on-ball pressure, thus limiting Cleveland’s ability to drive or pass wherever they desired to go and got more hands up on shots and limited the Cavs to 40.3 percent shooting after draining 59.5 percent two days prior.

Though not publicly stated since series opener, Rivers evidently gave Rondo the green light to take the ball and go rim-running whether he had teammates or not. Rivers had said after Game 1 he wanted other Celtics players to run with Rondo in transition. They did for the most part in second contest in Cleveland, but went back to old ways in being drubbed in next tilt.
Rondo appeared to have free reign Sunday afternoon and carved up the Cavaliers defense for 29 points, 13 assists and a Bill Russell-like 18 rebounds. Boston won by 10 as 1.5-point home dogs and is 5-1 ATS after winning as a home underdog.

LeBron James has surveyed the situation and is tired of watching his guards get cleaved up by Rondo. “I think it starts with Rondo. He's kind of the engine that really gets them going," James said. "He does everything for them. His performance was unbelievable."Rondo was definitely the difference maker."

James has increasing taken pride in his ability to stop opposing players and was spotted by more than one courtside observer in Boston letting coach Mike Brown know he wants to get into defensive stance against Rondo.

"I would love to,'' James said after the game. “It's something we maybe should explore because Rondo is definitely dominating this series at the point guard position. For me, I don't have a problem taking Rondo or guarding Rondo throughout the course of the game. If the coaching staff or the guys want me to do it, I will."

This is not unprecedented for the Cavs as King James guarded Derrick Rose in last series and limited what the Bulls guard could do taking turns with teammates.

Cleveland is 13-4 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite and is a 7.5-point pick with total of 194.5. This strategy might come out of necessity for coach Brown whose team is 16-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Since the guards are not handling the lightning quick Boston guard and are once again ineffective as scorers, just like in Orlando series in last season’s playoffs, Brown might be forced to employ this method.

The green-clad C’s are 11-4-1 ATS in postseason underdog role and know the better defense they play, that leaves more chances for the former Kentucky guard to run free in the open court.

This TNT 8:00 Eastern matchup has alternated Over’s and Under’s in the first four meetings, however the OVER is still 6-2 in previous eight matchups.

Bring the brooms for Monday

One professional basketball team swept away the competition in the second round; now two more will try and match them to start a new work week. Orlando and Los Angeles Lakers will attempt and do the same thing Phoenix performed yesterday and whisk away their opponent’s in four games to advance to conference finals.

The Magic are presumed to have the easier time since they have toyed with Atlanta like the Harlem Globetrotters vs. the Washington Generals. Orlando has won the three games in the series by an average of 29 points, which by NBA standards is about the same difference as a balanced budget in Washington D.C. vs. the national debt.

Orlando’s worst shooting game in the series was their last at 50.7 percent (the other two were 52.4 and 55.9 percent), while Atlanta shot attempts looked like a few of Tiger Woods drives over the weekend, making a paltry 36.8 percent vs. the Magic, however at least Woods had a back neck as excuse.

The Magic have won lucky 13 in a row (12-1 ATS) and are 13-3 ATS in road games having covered 12 or more of their last 15 against the spread over the last three seasons. Oddsmakers are taking a hit on the Hawks as the old “pendulum” theory is taking a beating with Atlanta, which is why Orlando is 6.5-point favorites after being just two in Game 3.

The Hawks are 2-13 ATS in the second round of the playoffs and 4-18 ATS off a home massacre of 20 points or more and the most telling and damning remarks come from one of their own.

When asked how well his team plays together center Al Horhord offered this.

“The chemistry, it’s OK,” Horford said, hardly a glowing assessment. “At times, it can be really good. Other times, not so good. There are ups and down. We have a lot of good guys on the team. We mesh to a certain extent. I just think sometimes, when things don’t go our way, everybody seems to crawl into their own little hole.” How could a sports bettor take the points with that cryptic statement for this TNT tilt at 8:00 Eastern?

While many basketball experts don’t recognize much of a difference between the Lakers and Utah besides the height factor, Los Angeles has on other clear edge, which is why they are the defending NBA champions.

The Lakers are maddening bunch this year as reported underachievers, merely going thru the motions too often for people’s taste. They had the third best regular season record at 57-25 and were far from domineering at +4.7 points point differential (tied for sixth overall). Their 39-50-2 spread record is a scattergood for a team of their ability, yet the one thing they do right the vast portion of the time is they make one more shot, grab one more rebound or make one more defensive stop to win games than the opposition. This carried them to Game 3 victory and 3-0 series lead even if good fortune as much as anything kept Wesley Matthews tip-in try at the buzzer out of the basket.

For all the criticism Phil Jackson’s team receives they have won five in a row and covered the number four times and have growing confidence, which is not good news for future opponents.
“Down the stretch, we made big shots. We’ve got guys that aren’t scared to take them,” Kobe Bryant said. “All across the board, guys will step up and they make them. That’s why we never really fret when it’s a five-point game or a two-point game with a couple minutes to go. “
The Lakers have no problem playing the up-tempo game with Utah and are 9-1 ATS after three or more consecutive Over’s this season.

Utah is 2.5-point favorites, with total at a series high of 207 and the Jazz are 13-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this year. “If we get the ball in the basket last night in the end of the ballgame it’s a different day,” Utah coach Jerry Sloan said Sunday. “But that’s part of it. You learn how to deal with the good and bad in life. There’s always going to be both at different times.”

The Jazz are 8-0 ATS at Energy Solutions Arena after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points and are 8-1 OVER in all playoff conflicts this campaign. The Lakers would prefer not to extend series and have nearly as much rest as the Suns before they meet and are 34-19 ATS as underdogs.

This contest will begin after Orlando and Atlanta complete their game and L.A. is 13-5 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

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Cavs and Suns look to do their thang on Mother's Day

Who could blame Boston GM Danny Ainge for waving something else this time, like the surrender flag after watching his team get pummeled on their home court by Cleveland. The Cavaliers, with the NBA’s most famous elbow, will look to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series on Sunday afternoon. Later, catch a gander of Phoenix on Mother’s Day, who is unbelievably going for the sweep of San Antonio, after three sharp performances against what has been their biggest nemesis.

Cleveland at Boston 3:30E ABC

At least for Game 3, LeBron James elbow was just fine, since the only pain felt was by Boston on the receiving end of 21 of his 38 points in the opening 12 minutes. The Celtics efforts of gaining home court advantage were vanquished within roughly 30 minutes real time as Cleveland led 36-17 after the first quarter.

“It started with me tonight. Everyone else saw my aggression and took advantage of it,” James said. “I think rest helped me; rest helped all of us, and we were able to put together a complete game for the first time in these playoffs.” This major announcement moved Cleveland to 11-2 ATS record in the second round of the playoffs.

The Celtics have gone from looking like wise veterans to golden oldies throughout the three contests in this series are in a world of hurt without Paul Pierce who continues to be a non-factor. Pierce is shooting 31 percent for the series and 25 percent from beyond the arc and is a shell of the player that was leading his team over Cleveland two years ago.

“We just need Paul to be aggressive,” forward Kevin Garnett said Saturday. “On both ends. Period.”

Pierce has the toughest matchup on the floor, having to guard James and trying to beat the younger, stronger Akron native, who was an All-Defensive team selection this season. “Obviously we do want to get him (Pierce) involved more, he has to get his rhythm better,” Celtics coach Doc Rivers said after practice.

Equally as disturbing is the C’s lack of aggressiveness at home, where they are pedestrian 27-18 at TD Garden, with ghastly 15-29-1 ATS record. Boston is 10-21 ATS in home whites revenging a loss over the last two seasons.

Cleveland again opened as one-point road favorites, with the total up to 197. The wagering public took the bait in Boston and sent them off as Game 3 single point faves. It will be interesting to see what they do this time since the Celtics are 3-12 ATS in downtown Boston when the total is between 195 and 199.5 points. Coach Rivers club is 16-6 OVER off an upset loss as a home favorite.

It will also be noteworthy to view the Cavs state of mind since they have had one complete game in three and are 18-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more, winning by 13.3 points a contest. The Cavaliers usually bring a defensive mentality into Sunday’s with 21-7 UNDER record the two seasons.

Phoenix at San Antonio 8:00E TNT

It’s unusual enough to see Phoenix up 3-0 over San Antonio, but it has been the manner in which it has occurred. The Suns have taken it to the Spurs time and again and most of their rebuttals have been have lacked the necessary punch.

Much like a prize fighter having knocked out opponents for years, San Antonio finds themselves trying to land haymakers and the opponent is not flinching when struck, which has to hurt the team’s psyche.

The Suns have so confounded the Spurs, even coach Gregg Popovich has made atypical judgments that have not worked.

San Antonio is 12-23 ATS at the AT&T Center revenging a defeat, but they can’t be entirely blamed since who could possibly have foreseen of the Phoenix lineups that have worked.
In Game 2 it was Amare Stoudemire and a group of players known only to Phoenix fans that that fueled a second quarter rally that got Los Suns back to even at halftime and the regulars took care of the rest from there forward.

On Friday night, with Steve Nash, Jason Richardson and Stoudemire on the bench to start the fourth quarter and trailing by a point, coach Alvin Gentry unleashed the “Slovenian slayer” Goran Dragic, who scored 17 points in five minutes in the deciding quarter and 23 all told in the last frame to send Spurs away totally bewildered.

"I knew I was hot," Dragic said, "so I just wanted to have the ball during the pick-and-roll. On a lot of those plays, I had Tim Duncan on my side, and Coach told me if you feel it, shoot it." He and even faster Leandro Barbosa abused the Spurs defensive tactics for 39 points combined, while committing only one turnover.

The Suns are 13-4 ATS away after a combined score of 205 points or more three straight games this season and let’s be truthful, who really wants to play this club right now.

Phoenix actually went off a seven-point underdog in last contest, no more, now down to 3.5-points with 22-8-1 ATS record off a cover. This one is about pride for San Antonio who is 9-3-1 ATS as home favorite, however the Suns bring such an unknown as to what player or groups of players that could rise and shine, the Spurs have to have their heads on swivel trying to figure out where Phoenix will attack next.

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NBA ROUND TWO BETTING EDGES

With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it’s one to Round Two where a series upset or two is always in the realm of possibility.

Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout 2nd round playoff action. All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise. Enjoy.

Three down, but not out
Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not go down easily in Round Two.

Unlike most other rounds, teams playing off three consecutive losses that are not favored (pick or dog) prove to be resilient this round, going 8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS.

Better yet, if they showed some spark of like in the last game – scoring 82 or more points – these teams tend to take a punch almost as well as Jake LaMotta, going 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in this role.

Thou shall not lay points to a No. 1 seed
One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: never lay points against No.1 seeds.

That’s because inferior teams are just 15-25-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996. Worse, if the No. 1 seed is off a SU and ATS loss, lower seeded favorites are just 3-10 ATS.
And if the lower seeded favorite beat the top seed and covered the spread by nine or more points, they dip to 1-10 ATS.

Role reversals
You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs do.

That’s confirmed by the fact that Round Two dogs off a straight-up loss as a favorite are 29-20 ATS.

When changing roles off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, these puppies bark to the tune of 11-4 ATS, including 10-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of les than .680 on the season.

Running on empty
Teams that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up the next game in this round.

That’s evident by a sparkling 20-10-1 ATS mark by Round Two favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.

Put these favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 15-3 ATS, including 14-1 when laying four or more points.

There you have it. Four reliable betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 2nd round of this year’s NBA playoffs. Use your head and play accordingly.

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

Is it wise to wager on Saturday’s NBA home teams?

The Utah Jazz and Atlanta Hawks are down 0-2 and neither is given much of a chance to come back in their respective series. That doesn’t mean they won’t give complete effort having slept in the own beds and will feel the energy of the home crowd once they hit the floor. But does either team really have enough, can they play a complete game with the minimum amount of failures and get back into the series to make it interesting at the very least. For the sports bettor, this is what to look for if you want to play these teams.

In primetime on ABC at 8:00 Eastern, Utah is looking forward to adding one more weapon to their depleted arsenal, with Andrei Kirilenko “AK47”, expected to play after missing most of two months with a strained left calf.

Kirilenko is unlikely to be a major factor, but if he can limit Kobe Bryant defensively, while invigorating the offense, that becomes a positive for the Jazz.

Utah is 35-9 and 29-13-2 ATS in home games this season and needs to make an adjustment that is contrary to how they play. Coach Jerry Sloan’s motion offense has again led to Utah being one of the top shooting teams in the NBA at 49 percent, but after awhile, you can’t keep going into the paint against the taller Lakers and have shots stamped “return to sender” continually.

Utah has had 20 blocked field goal attempts already in this series and might be better served to drive and kick out to shooters or use drive-and-stab dribble to create 10-foot shots instead of facing rejections or altered shots.

The Jazz are not going to beat Los Angeles by playing swarming defense, they have to out-shoot them. In Utah’s last 10 wins over the Lakers at home, they have had the higher shooting percentage nine times. In fact, the team that shoots the ball better is 14-1-1 ATS in Salt Lake City since Nov. 3, 2004.

The Jazz are 4.5-point favorites with total of 202.5. Utah is 18-6 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less and 15-6 OVER in double revenge situations. The Lakers are seemingly much better than Utah and appear to get bored when building any substantial lead but are 18-7 ATS after consecutive contests forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers.

It’s hard to believe NBA analyst and former coach Hubie Brown is 76 years old, as he still can make watching an NBA game a pleasure, breaking down the teams and players for the more sophisticated fan, yet make salient understandable points for the casual observer. Brown also has the gift of criticizing a player in a manner that isn’t demeaning but fair, but later finding a positive about that same player later in a telecast, just like a coach.

Brown has had plenty of ammo to work with watching the Atlanta. The Hawks were a no-show in Game 1, losing to Orlando by eye-popping 43 points. As presumed, Atlanta showed much more resolve in the next contest and was tied at 83 with the Magic after three quarters.
However, NBA basketball is about performing when it matters most, the fourth quarter.

Atlanta is like a lot of NBA teams, they lacked that killer instinct to take care of opponent in the last 12 minutes and they were outscored 28-15 by Orlando in the final stanza.

For this 5:00 Eastern matchup on ESPN, Atlanta is 8-3-1 ATS off a double digit defeat and has to make up their minds they want to play all 48 minutes. This team had impressive wins in the regular season over good clubs and has to bring that same fire for all four quarters. The other component necessary to victory is Mike Bibby playing like a point guard of distinction.

Atlanta has just 28 assists in two games vs. Orlando and Bibby has a grand total of four. Coach Mike Woodson’s team to often lapses into dribbling without purpose, running down the shot clock and taking forced shot attempts. As John Hollinger of ESPN points out, Bibby’s postseason play has been the weakest of the remaining point guards still in the tournament and the Hawks are not talented enough to hide his poor play like the Lakers can do with Derek Fisher or someone else that comes off the bench in Los Angeles. Bibby’s team needs him, it’s time for his to deliver.

The Hawks are catching 2.5-points as home dogs and they will have to do better than 1-8 ATS off a SU loss if they want to continue this series beyond four games. Going up against the hottest team in the playoffs will test their fortitude, since Orlando is on 12-game winning streak and is awe-inspiring 11-1 ATS.

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NBA Big 3’s not what used to be

The world moves along at warp speed and today’s My Space is quickly replaced by Facebook in what seems like no time at all. The same is true in the NBA; bring up the term –Big Three- and who doesn’t think of NBA championships with San Antonio and Boston. But like boxer Shane Mosley found out recently, father times waits for no one and you can be discarded rather quickly when the latest thing comes around the corner. Watch for this in the NBA playoff tilts tonight.

Cleveland at Boston 7:00E ESPN

It was just two years ago; General Manager Danny Ainge formed his version of VH1’s “super group”, bringing together Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to play with Paul Pierce. This was immediate success as the trio matched skills perfectly and did ESPN commercials on the way to NBA championship.

But that was then. Now KG cannot play a full season as his once youthful legs are betraying him. Allen can still run an opponent crazy going thru a maze of screens, but the quick-triggered jumper is not as reliable as the old days. Pierce was main force in the championship season and he was “the man” whenever Boston needed a clutch basket. Today he is more of a role player, an additional scorer, not someone who can be counted on regularly.

Its new era in Bean-Town and Rajon Rondo is the new leader. The Celtics now go where Rondo takes them.

After a disappointing regular season that left Boston as the fourth seed, The Three Amigos are trying to keep up with the speedy Rondo and are 5-2 SU and ATS in the postseason. The Celtics have been playing tremendous basketball, really only having the equivalent of four less than desirable quarters of hoops among its seven games that accounted for both losses.

Rondo is not about numbers, he’s about results. His outside shooting is below average, he still goes “Road Runner” fast and commits more turnovers than necessary, but he’s smarter player today.

Rondo finds the open man sooner, he will make a steal and be gone two steps before his opponent even reacts and runs down a rebound like he knew the angle of the miss just as the shooter released the ball.

After earning split in Cleveland, Rondo and his teammates truly believe they are better than the Cavaliers and he will to abuse more Cavs defenders.

Sportsbooks have Boston as single point home underdogs and the Celtics are 8-2-1 ATS when catching 4.5-point or fewer points at TD Garden and will try to keep lethargic Cleveland squad playing the same way.

When Cleveland fans here about elbow problems, baseball is what usually comes to mind. It’s quite evident LeBron James is laboring with this issue, but this doesn’t mean the rest of the team can’t make shoot and play defense. The Cavs have been outplayed for 6 ½ quarters in this series and everyone will find out a lot in Game 3 about a team that is 7-3 ATS off a double digit home loss.

Phoenix at San Antonio 9:30E ESPN

The Spurs have to win four of their next five games to advance to West Finals and even having its three stars might not be enough to make that occur.

Basketball is five on five with every player having a job to do. Though Tony Parker is coming off the bench, he’s playing starter minutes. (36:05 in Game 2) And even if you take bench scoring in the literal sense, San Antonio was outscored 31-24 by players that came off the Phoenix chairs, which was essentially the difference in 110-102 final.

Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili have been carrying this franchise for years, unfortunately they can’t do it alone and need more help. This helps explain 11-25 ATS record revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. Richard Jefferson was moreeffective in last contest, but Antonio McDyess and Matt Bonner were non-factors.

Phoenix on the other hand showed the depth of the Chinese Red Army. The Suns starters were a step slow, out of rhythm and playing mediocre basketball as they trailed 30-21 after the first quarter.

Coach Alvin Gentry had just pleaded with his team to give more effort and in came Jared Dudley, Channing Frye and Louis Amundson and instead of folding like a burrito on Cinco de Mayo, Phoenix exploded with increased energy, scoring, rebounding and playing tighter defense. The starters watched as their teammates led the surge on San Antonio and by halftime the game was knotted up at 51.

Dudley in particular was the star of stars. "He was my player of the game -- he made some huge plays for us," Steve Nash said. "He did a bunch of things that more than anything gave us energy and confidence and changed the game and enabled us to come back and tie at halftime just because of his energy and spirit."

San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich seconded that notion: "Jared Dudley changed the whole game. He came in and was a monster. He was committed to the boards, and it was infectious."

The Spurs need this type of player to help the power trio against Suns team that is shining bright with 20-4 and 17-6-1 ATS record since Mar.14. San Antonio is six-point favorite with total of 205.5 and is 8-3 ATS off a straight up and spread loss. This is a conflict they need to take control of throughout and are 10-3-1 UNDER at home vs. teams with a winning road record.

Phoenix has covered eight of last 11 contests as road underdogs and is 17-6 OVER away from Arizona after consecutive games as a home favorite.

Are the Atlanta Hawks already finished?

The source of the question you are about to read might seem a little strange, but it turns out to be exactly correct in breaking down Atlanta and Orlando series. “Is the anticipation of some future pleasure better than the actual experience?”

Winnie the Pooh posed that question before eating honey and the Hawks of Atlanta are wondering the same thing in saying “…we’re looking forward to seeing what we can do in the playoffs against Orlando”. After being trounced by 43 points (Atlanta missed a push against the spread by a mere 34 digits) the first thought that comes to mind is “really?”

Atlanta was actually competitive for the first 12 minutes, trailing only 25-23 and they went into somnolence. The Birds scored a grand total of 21 points in the middle two quarters and gave new meaning to the NBA Playoff slogan “Amazing is ……?

Coach Mike Woodson could go to Home Depot, buy all the paint his credit card would allow and it still wouldn’t cover up this stink bomb.

After a one game reprieve against a Milwaukee club that in all fairness isn’t in Atlanta’s world talent-wise, the Hawks reverted back to being the Hawks on the playoff road. Now 2-11 ATS (aver. loss 19.9 PPG) on postseason excursions, Atlanta showed exactly why they don’t belong with NBA elite.

After passing the ball around for a few first quarter assists and buckets, Woodson proved he really has no control of this team as Joe “iso” Johnson and Jamal “shot craver” Crawford were a combined 5 for 22 from the field, which is truly “amazing”.

The Hawks are 4-18 ATS away from home versus good teams outscoring opponents by three or more points a game after the mid-point of the season the last three years and might have to use Dictionary.com to look up the word – team.

Josh Smith was the only player that had a descent stat sheet with 7-14 shooting and three steals, but he took silly fouls and continues to play “street ball” on an NBA court. In his defense, just think what Atlanta would have shot (they were 34.6 percent) for game if Smith had not made half his shots?

Dwight Howard only played just over 28 minutes, but this time it wasn’t because of foul trouble, it was because it was a total demolition by Orlando. Howard had 21 points, 12 boards and five blocks and the only word that came to mind watching Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia trying to stop “Superman” was “helpless”. In fact, the Atlanta big men really wanted so little to do with Howard he couldn’t find enough of their players to commit his usual three or four reckless fouls.

Oddsmakers can’t overreact to 43-point cave-ins and the Hawks are 9.5-point underdogs, with total of 189.5. Maybe a hug and drinking from their favorite sippy-cup will make Atlanta feel all better and even after being throttled; they are 8-1 ATS after scoring 85 or fewer points.

Coach Stan Van Gundy probably wouldn’t mind a competitive contest, since it appears the next round could be coming soon and his team is 29-12 ATS after playing a home game this season. Orlando is 30-14 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more and the unimposing Hawks are 20-7 UNDER revenging a road loss of 10 points or more.

Stayed tuned to ESPN at 8:00 Eastern to witness the next massacre or if Atlanta can really play with heart, for a change.

Spurs must control tempo to even series

This series without question is the clash wills and desire to play different games. Phoenix won and covered the series opener 111-102 as 4.5-point favorites because they were able to control the pace of the game for longer periods of time than San Antonio. The Spurs made a couple of incredible runs by playing their preferred style, but ultimately it wasn’t enough and they were defeated.

Steve Nash just abused George Hill in the first half, making the second year guard look like a second year player being schooled. Nash used change of pace dribbles, went between his legs on strong cross-over moves and left Hill dumbfounded with one-step three-pointers and one-handed floaters.

This forced Gregg Popovich to use Tony Parker on Nash, which worked for the most part in slowing Nash down as scorer, but he was still able to find the open man for 10 assists to compliment his 33 points.

“He ran it down our throat," Spurs coach Popovich said.

Defining the Spurs weakness is relatively simple. When San Antonio plays against teams that push the pace, taking a large volume of shots and are winning club, they struggle.
Forget about the Golden State’s, Sacramento’s and Indiana’s of the world that take a vast number of attempts because their players are more interested in stats than winning, look for quality.

This season the Spurs are 3-9 and 2-10 ATS versus Phoenix, Denver and Utah, all teams that accelerate pace.

Why do they struggle, start with Tim Duncan. The future Hall of Famer has turned that odometer over several times in his 13 years in the league and played a record low 31.3 minutes per game this season. Duncan can no longer run up down the floor effortlessly with his stiff and sore knees and his lateral quickness is virtually gone.

The Spurs do not have defensive stoppers like Bruce Bowen and usable big men like they had in the past. Nazr Mohammed and Rasho Nesterovic could clog the lane and block shots from recent championship teams.

This is bore out with San Antonio being 1-9 ATS in road games when both teams score 98 or more points this season. They were only 4-4 SU and ATS against average teams like Memphis and Houston who preferred to play at faster clip.

This Spurs team has to ride the brake, maximizing points per possession while squeezing the life out of opponent like they did against Dallas.

That means running the offense thru Duncan and Manu Ginobili with Tony Parker and Richard Jefferson making themselves available.

Popovich’s team is a 2.5-point underdog with total of 205.5. The black-clad Spurs are 11-24 ATS revenging a road loss and have to gain control early and force more contested three-point attempts by Phoenix. This club does not have ability to get in shooting match behind the arc (4-19 in Game 1) and is better suited to play under control with Duncan and teammates running at their own pace instead of chasing opponents.

This TNT telecast starts at 9:00 Eastern and San Antonio is 16-5 UNDER as a road underdog of three points or less.

Tuesday's Lineup of Winners (I hope)

Three undistinguished days in a row leaves at 23-13, time to come back with some winners like a Top Trend in hockey or what about Paul hitting Free NBA selection. We have a number of good choices from our article on MLB systems today. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- What is wrong with the Cleveland Cavaliers? No sense of urgency, very tentative and their supposed rock solid defense has more holes than in the Arizona/Mexico border.

Isn’t it great their will one NBA game each of the next two days with two series having three or more days off? After the NBA got its ass whipped by 3 to 1 in viewers by the NFL Draft, might be time to rethink this stupid strategy and just keep playing and have The Finals start on June 1 after the sweeps are done on TV.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) See system listed below.

Free Hockey Trend -2) Pittsburgh is 9-0 off a home loss by two goals or more this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Paul Buck is 8-2 in last 10 NBA wagers and has Orlando in Game 1.

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