A New NFL Wagering Season Begins

Keeping with recent NFL tradition, the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers open the new season at home before a national television audience on Thursday night. Pittsburgh, fresh off its second crown in four years, hosts Tennessee in a battle of the AFC's top two playoff seeds from 2008.

The Titans (13-4, 14-4-1 ATS in 2008), who defeated the Steelers 31-14 in Week 16 last season and captured the AFC South title with 13 victories, are eager to be back in action after suffering a mistake-filled playoff loss at home to Baltimore in the divisional round. Tennessee outgained the Ravens by 180 yards, but three turnovers in the red zone proved too much to overcome.

Turnovers, a stifling defense, a deft running game and sound quarterback play from veteran Kerry Collins made the Titans the team to beat entering last year's postseason. And even with menacing tackle Albert Haynesworth (Redskins) gone from a defense that ranked in the top six in most categories, Tennessee is certain to be a factor in a division any of the four clubs could win and is 7-0 ATS in September the last couple of years.

Pittsburgh's competition in the AFC North may only go one deep, with nobody outside of Baltimore expected to contend. The Steelers (15-4, 11-8 ATS) have essentially the same personnel and are a safe bet to pick up right where they left off as 27-23 winners over Arizona in Super Bowl XLIII. Aside from an Achilles' scare in practice, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger enjoyed a quiet offseason, unlike 2006, and is primed to top last year's numbers (3,301 yards, 17 touchdowns, 15 interceptions) with a new second tier of receivers in Limas Sweed and Shaun McDonald (Lions) to go with veteran Hines Ward and Santonio "Super Bowl MVP" Holmes. Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in first game of a new season.

Roethlisberger passed for 331 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions versus the Titans last Dec. 21 in a game that saw Pittsburgh's top-ranked defense allow just one scoring drive of more than 40 yards. That came midway through the third quarter when Tennessee went 79 yards on 11 plays and took the lead for good on Chris Johnson's 21-yard touchdown run on fourth-and-inches.

Pittsburgh can expect a heavy dose of Johnson and LenDale White, but as the Titans showed in last year's meeting they won't hesitate to pass, as Collins went 20-for-29. That means Justin Gage will see plenty of action after totaling 104 yards last season against the Steelers defense. Look for the Titans to want to clock Big Ben just like last season, when they sacked him five times. Though Haynesworth will be missed, he didn’t play in last year’s matchup.

The Titans are six-point underdogs, with total of 35 at Bookmaker.com and are 16-6 ATS when catching points and are 8-2 UNDER in September.

If the opening game is to be joyous occasion in the Steel City, then the offensive line has to give Roethlisberger time to throw and not have him running for his life. Look for Pittsburgh to test Tennessee defense with deep shots to Sweed and rookie Mike Wallace. Defensively, the Steelers have to keep Johnson inside the tackles and prevent him from bouncing out wide. Pittsburgh is 39-18 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and has played OVER in seven straight openers.

In the last six meetings between these AFC squads, the OVER is 6-1. The excitement starts at 8:30 Eastern on NBC for the NFL lid-lifter and the previous year’s Super Bowl champions are 9-0 and 7-1-1 ATS in first game of a new season.


College and Pro Football Newsweekly contributed to this article.

Let the football betting commence

It’s only a meaningless NFL preseason contest, but who cares, the NFL is back on TV, which means the regular season is fast approaching. Buffalo and Tennessee will play in the annual Hall of Fame game from Canton, OH. On Saturday, a six-man class was enshrined, with wide receiver Bob Hayes, guard Randall McDaniel, defensive end Bruce Smith, linebacker Derrick Thomas, Buffalo Bills owner Ralph Wilson, and defensive back Rod Woodson being honored.

Later on NBC starting at 8 Eastern, the Bills and Titans will commence to cracking shoulder pads and trading helmet paint.

Buffalo made a splashy move in signing flamboyant wide receiver Terrell Owens. The Bills want to break streak of three consecutive 7-9 seasons (26-21-1 ATS) and try to make leap to at least be wild card team. Owens should fit nicely with Lee Evans on the other side and make Buffalo difficult to stop in the red zone, with four receiver sets that include Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish.

Quarterback Trent Edwards should see limited minutes at best, with backups Ryan Fitzpatrick and Gibran Hamdan seeing the bulk of the work.

Coach Dick Jauron is 5-7 and 7-5 ATS in the preseason in Buffalo and will coach squad that is 6-0 ATS in first exhibition game since 2003. With the Bills a three-point underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com, Jauron is 7-0 against the oddsmakers as underdog.

Tennessee’s tremendous 13-3 season came to disappointing end with first playoff game ouster by Baltimore, 13-10 at home as three-point favorites. Kerry Collins returns for 15th season as quarterback and is the clear number one man in Tennessee. Vince Young is the primary backup and has a lot of work to do this August to restore dwindling NFL career.

The Titans will again feature a strong rushing attack with Chris Johnson and LenDale White, but the receiving core is still a weakness. Maybe free agent acquisition Nate Washington from Pittsburgh and top draft choice Kenny Britt can add some life.

Defensively, a gaping hole was left when Albert Haynesworth left for Washington via free agency. For most teams, this would be devastating loss; however with Jeff Fisher as coach, he usually finds a way to mask deficiencies. Fisher is 29-26 SU and 28-25-2 ATS in the preseason and 18-8 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3.

Except for 1966, there has been a Hall of Fame game every year since 1962 and neither Buffalo nor Tennessee has won here in two previous tries.

NFL Saturday Games Need to Know Info

Baltimore at Tennessee (-3, 34)

Kerry Collins started to look like a quarterback getting up in years late in the season. Maybe the break will recharge him, but against this Baltimore defense, that might be so easy, as road teams that yield 4.90 yards per play or fewer on defense are 15-5 ATS in the playoffs. The Ravens held Tennessee to just 34 yards rushing in the earlier meeting and have to like their chances if they put up similar numbers, even on the road. This should be like prize fight and if Baltimore wants to knock off the top seed in the AFC, they must knock them out. On offense that means passing when you should run and vice versa. Ray Lewis and his teammates have a lot of confidence working and are 9-2 ATS off a win.

Tennessee has the loudest outdoor stadium in the NFL, thus scoring first is a priority for Jeff Fisher’s club. It is imperative to establish some semblance of running game or short passes that are like runs to keep Baltimore from dictating defensive tempo. Otherwise, they could fall into same trap Miami did, even being a ball security team. Joe Flacco was serviceable last week; the Titans defensive job is to make feel like he was at University of Pittsburgh before transferring, unwanted. The mantra has to be -Frustrate Flacco. Though they seemingly didn’t care about losing to Indianapolis to close the season, being shutout is embarrassing and Tennessee is 8-2 ATS after losing by two touchdowns or more.

With the total at 34, Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in all games where the total is 35 or less over the last two seasons, but Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in the Volunteer state.

Arizona at Carolina (-9.5, 48.5)

Though Arizona won big playoff game, Carolina has to make them feel very unwelcome traveling into the Eastern Time zone where the Cardinals are 2-19 and 7-14 ATS over the past six years. The Panthers can’t stroll into this divisional playoff game, they need to shake Arizona up quickly and have Kurt Warner wearing that frown he has when things are not going his way. Chances are Anquan Bolden will be limited at best, put your best corner, Chris Gamble on Larry Fitzgerald and create over the top help on his side. Arizona gained respect by stopping Atlanta’s running game, test to see how they perform against rested DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The Cards are 1-4 ATS after allowing 90 or less yards rushing.

The most striking aspect of Arizona’s defensive effort last week was crisp tackling, something in short supply all season long. With Carolina averaging 194.8 yards per game rushing the last seven games, the Cardinals defense has to tackle even better. On offense, running the ball has proven to work, just keep up the effort, as the Panthers are nothing special in allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Keep Edgerrin James with that big smile on his face and don’t be afraid to use the tight ends like last week to move the chains. The Cards players have to listen to vets like Warner and not be overwhelmed by the moment. If they fall behind by 10 or 14 points early, realize you have enough offense to overcome deficit. Arizona is 9-4 ATS as dogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

Teams like Arizona that have not been in the playoffs for three or more years and won their first postseason contest, are 7-15-1 ATS in next outing.

Thanksgiving NFL Football Feast

Many are clamoring to have the Detroit Lions not play on Thanksgiving. Why, because the Lions are terrible, have been and will be for the foreseeable future. But this country needs traditions, things that we can count on, not changing everything for the sake of change. If you don’t like the game, here is a thought, don’t watch it and talk to your family or relatives. Enjoy the company of another; just don’t whine about the Detroit Lions. In fact to make it more interesting, bet the game or have everybody at the house pick a side with the spread, it’s sure to add to the camaraderie of the day rooting for certain teams.

Tennessee at Detroit (Lions +11, 44.5)

Dating back to 1934, the Lions have been a proud part of the American celebration of Thanksgiving Day. They’ve played 68 games on the national Holiday and take a 33-33-2 record into this year’s contest against Tennessee. Detroit (4-7 ATS) has dropped four straight on the fourth Thursday of November while being outscored by a lopsided 121-50 margin, yet even worse is the fact it has lost 12 in a row and 17 of 18 on Sundays.

Combine the Lions 0-11 start to 2008 with the Titans 10-1 (9-1-1 ATS) mark and the NFL nearly had the setting for the perfect storm at Ford Field. But even if Tennessee enters the stadium under a ladder, breaks a mirror in the locker room and spills the salt during its pre-game turkey meal with extra tryptophan, it should feast on a team that last celebrated a win before the holidays in ‘07. The Titans have won and covered their last seven games on the road.

After losing to the Jets, 34-13, the Titans need a few more wins to wrap up the No. 1 seed in the AFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Now that veteran quarterback Kerry Collins has shown he can win games for Tennessee—like he did in Weeks 10 and 11 in Chicago and Jacksonville—it’s hard to find something to knock. The offense is balanced, the defense is smothering and the special teams are pretty special. The appearance of the Jets loss was New York just wanted it more and was set up to beat them literally at their own game. Tennessee is still a delectable 25-10-2 ATS versus the NFC.

Collins, whose been sacked six times in 310 pass attempts, has only nine touchdowns but five came in the last three games. It took him eight starts to throw for 200 yards in a game, but it’s rarely a necessity with a backfield tandem of LenDale White (11 touchdowns) and Chris Johnson (833 yards, five scores) and a defense allowing 15.0 points per game. Though when the Bears and Jaguars shut the running game down, Collins delivered.

While Tennessee is fully loaded, Detroit has a couple of budding stars capable of turning the franchise around a season or two down the road. Second-year wide receiver Calvin Johnson is developing a knack for big plays but can stand to be more consistent. He’s got six touchdowns in the last seven games and six receptions of at least 40 yards on the year. In addition, rookie running back Kevin Smith has 294 yards in the last three games after totaling 305 in the first eight. If you want an upside, The Lions are 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last three seasons.

Bookmaker.com has the Lions on the receiving end of 11.5-points with a total of 44. Detroit is on a run for four straight Over’s and is 7-0 OVER after five or more consecutive losses.

Thanksgiving Tasty Angle- Thursday home underdogs of 7.5 or more points are worse than overcooked sweet potatoes at 2-8-1 ATS.

To read about the other two games click here.

Tennessee Titans are Winning Approval

Raise your hand if you expected the Tennessee Titans to be 7-0 halfway through the 2008 NFL season.Any takers? No? I didn’t think so.

After a nationally televised handling of the almighty Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football, the Titans deservedly sit atop the power rankings on every prominent sports website.
Make no mistake; I knew this team would be a contender and most likely end the season with a Wild Card playoff berth. But that was with a much-improved Vince Young at the helm, scampering around making plays with his feet and being smart with his arm. If you told me journeyman Kerry Collins was going to take over this team in the second week of the season and resurrect it from the depths of mediocrity, I might have checked you into an insane asylum.

But this guy has proven to be a veteran signal caller who limits mistakes. And the way the Titans roll with the football and play defense that is all you need. Collins completes on average just over 16 passes an outing and has yet to throw for more than 200 yards in a game this season.

But again, if you’ve bought into Jeff Fisher’s ideology that is all the guy taking snaps has to do to be successful. Remember Steve McNair? Take care of the football and play smash-mouth defense. The Titans are holding opponents to a league-best 12.4 points per game and are +8 in turnover margin which also ranks tops in the NFL.

Speaking of Jeff Fisher, I am going to go ahead and slap the “mastermind” label on his forehead, right above those sunglasses he never seems to pull off. I would put him up against that grandma-headband wearing, hooded guru that stalks the sidelines of Foxboro.

Beginning his career when the Titans were the Houston Oilers back in 1994, Fisher is the longest tenured coach in the NFL with 14 consecutive seasons under his belt. He and his squad made a Super Bowl appearance in 1999 after the infamous Music City Miracle. And then who can forget receiver Kevin Dyson reaching out for the goal line just to be tackled inches short of the game-tying score against the Rams?

But this pigskin genius is only 50 years old. If you are speaking in Joe Paterno years Fisher could be coaching for 30 more seasons! And there is not an inkling of doubt in my mind that he will capture an elusive Super Bowl ring. How many is anyone’s guess.

Earlier this week Collins was quoted saying, “Players love to play for this guy.” And if they don’t or fail to buy into his philosophy then he kindly shows them the door…ahem…Adam Jones! (Side Note: How good would that defense be with Pacman locking down opposing receivers?)

But I compare Fisher to a baseball manager I have the utmost respect for - Tony LaRussa. These two leaders are able to create winners out of nobodies. They find a way to make their team successful without the bazillion dollar contracts and superstars on the field.

Think about it, the biggest name on the Titans team is Vince Young and he’s watching from the sidelines. Let me think who else we have…LenDale White…the guy who was lost in Reggie Bush’s starlight at Southern Cal. And he isn’t even the starting back with rookie speedster Chris Johnson. You are probably saying Chris…who? Albert Haynesworth may be the biggest name they have and he’s a defensive lineman!

I would like to point out a pair of cover corners that deserve to be mentioned while we’re talking Tennessee personnel - Cortland Finnegan and Nick Harper. These guys were just begging to be thrown at on Monday evening and when their number was challenged, they responded. Pass breakups, incompletions and dropped passes were the only numbers Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison saw on the stat sheet.

I’ve watched this team closely on defense and it seems like every single man knows his role and how to execute it. And defense wins championships. The offense is beginning to come around, but does it really need to? They’ve mustered 34 and 31 points in the last couple of games but don’t expect that scoring surge to continue. But it is apparent that if the Titans need to open up the passing game because teams are stacking against the run they can. Receiving space over the middle to a couple of great tight ends in Bo Scaife and Alge Crumpler is parting open like Moses through the Red Sea.

Now don’t go expecting a 16-0 regular season from this squad like we did with the Pats last year. They just don’t have the offensive firepower to do that. When they play teams that are like-minded, love to slow the game down and run the ball, Tennessee will find themselves in the losing column for the first time.

And the Titans haven't just been pleasing their fans this season either. A collection of followers scattered across the country have taken notice to not only their wins on Sunday but the team's winning margins.

Tennessee has not failed to cover a single spread this year, going 7-0 against the number. They are putting lots of cash in the pockets of those fortunate enough to bet on them week in and week out. But eventually the odds will stack high enough and the oddsmakers will adjust high enough to make the cash cow sour.

Regardless of who they are pleasing in Sin City, the Titans are in complete control of the AFC South with a four-game lead over the Colts, Jaguars and Texans who all sit at 3-4. Remember however, Fisher and the boys went 6-2 to jumpstart last season and then went on to lose four of their next five.

This was penned by Scott Cooley, a freelance writer.