MLB 's Best and Worst Pitcher in April

Gave our friend Marc Lawrence a call to talk a little baseball and see what he is up to with college basketball windowing closing. We got talking about the importance of starting pitchers and bullpens when it comes to wagering on the big leagues. We both agreed you can’t win the pennant in April but you can certainly lose it with a sluggish start and weaknesses exposed.

At Marc’s Playbook.com, he has for the last several years compiled a list of good and bad pitchers per month and he shared that list with me. Below is the complete list, along with why each of them performs in this manner.

APRIL GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:
Beckett, Josh 10-4
Buehrle, Mark 10-3
Greinke, Zach 10-5
Hernandez, Felix 10-4
Hudson, Tim 8-3
Looper, Braden 12-3
Matsuzaka, Daisuke 8-4
Moyer, Jamie 10-5
Penny, Brad 10-4
Saunders, Joe 11-3
Wainwright, Adam 11-4
Webb, Brandon 11-1

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:
Arroyo, Bronson 5-10
Zito, Barry 4-10

Arroyo – Throws strikes and changes speeds on his fastball continually. Likes to mix in changeup and eats up a number of innings. He is more a feel pitcher and with the colder weather in the opening month, the baseball tends to be slicker which doesn’t give him as much command, explaining his slow starts.

Beckett- Power pitcher with drop and drive delivery. His strength is low to mid-90’s fastball with one of the best curveball’s in baseball.

Buehrle – Doesn’t impress many radar guns topping out around 87 MPH, but is expert at working both sides of the plate and like most left-handers has tailing fastball to right-hand batters. Changeup and slow curve makes fastball appear quicker.

Greinke – Skill and ability finally meshed as Greinke started last season 6-0 in 2-009 with late-1960’s Bob Gibson-like like ERA of 0.40. Tremendous arm, with a real feel for how to pitch, who put it all together to be AL Cy Young winner in 2009 on a bad ballclub.

Hernandez –Still only 23 years old, King Felix has mid-90 fastball and superior breaking pitches. He also a heavy sinker that batters have said is like “swinging and hitting a bowling ball”. That’s a pitch most hitter’s don’t want to swing at when the temps are in the 30’s and 40’s.

Hudson – Coming off Tommy John surgery, interesting to see how he starts.

Looper- Last reported as free agent.

Matsuzaka – Has neck injury rehabbing.

Moyer – Internet reports of Moyer being a rookie learning to pitch from Christy Mathewson (google this name) are unfound, as the lefty continues to confound batters with slow, slower and slower yet pitches, being able to spot them where needed.

Penny –The big right-hander could not have found a better place to resurrect his career. Working with pitching guru Dave Duncan should be a blessing for this flyball pitcher. Duncan will work with Penny not to overthrow and improve slow breaking pitches.

Saunders – Lost ability to work down and inside on right-hand batters and was tattooed frequently last season. Historically, fast starter and needs to for confidence reason on Angels club that needs him more this season.

Wainwright – The last two seasons has been among the best pitchers in all of baseball. Helps himself by being good hitter and won Golden Glove for fielding.

Webb – Out indefinitely coming back from shoulder surgery.

Zito – Similar to Arroyo, doesn’t throw hard, but not as good at spotting pitches. Has big loopy curveball that is batting practice material if it doesn’t break to the knees. Can sail along for four innings and give up a five-spot in a manner of minutes.

MLB Series Wagering - Yankees at Red Sox

With two World Series championship rings in the past five years, the Boston Red Sox don’t play baseball games hoping to make the postseason; they play for division titles and settle for the wild card if that is last option. With roughly a quarter of the season to be played, Boston knows this is their best chance to close the six game differential in the loss column with New York, with just three games remaining between these two rivals. "There's [42 games] of our season left," Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek said. "We have too many good characters on this team. We won't quit."

Boston (69-51, +3.3 units) feels they are gathering momentum, having won seven of last 10, including sweeping Toronto on the road. The Red Sox return home where they are 38-18 and could tie the Yankees for the best home record in baseball with a sweep. Terry Francona’s club is third in baseball in runs scored on home turf at 5.7 per contest and hopes to improve on that figure tonight. Besides all the obvious aspects that are in front of the BoSox, being bludgeoned 25-8 at Yankees Stadium two weeks ago in a four-game sweep adds incentive.

How good have the Yankees (76-45, +6.9 units) been since the All-Star break? The Bronx Bombers are 25-8 and have won nine of 10 series, including the last five in a row. "The one thing that I've been really proud about [with] this club is that there's a sense of urgency every night," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "This club knows how to continue to push, and that's a good feeling.”

In the opener, Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22 ERA) will take the ball and he been awful of late with 0-3 record and a 7.54 ERA over his last four starts. New York will counter with Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09), whose been particularly sharp in allowing two or fewer runs in his last four starts. Only a lack of run support has kept him at 1-0 mark in these assignments. DiamondSportsbook.com has New York as -110 money road favorites, with total Ov10.5. The Yankees are 4-15 on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5, while Boston is 37-10 at home when the total is 10 or higher over the last two seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

As expected, Saturday’s contest will be a Fox Sports afternoon affair and New York will be a decided favorite. The pitching mismatch is the top reason; with A. J. Burnett (10-6, 3.69) facing Junichi Tazawa (1-2, 5.40). The Japanese right-hander came to this country noted for low-90’s fastball, splitter and change, but right-hand hitters are batting .542 in his 11.2 innings of work. The Yanks entered this series without a win in Bean-Town in 2009, nevertheless are 16-2 after six or more consecutive road games this year. Conversely, the Red Sox have really floundered against the better teams and are 4-12 playing against a club with a winning record in the second half of this season.

Game 2 Edge: Yankees

The final contest is night-time conflict on ESPN and should be a beauty. Two big time pitchers will be paired in C.C. Sabathia (14-7, 3.58) versus Josh Beckett (14-4, 3.58). The Yankees came into the weekend with a stellar 50-27 record in night games. The New York front office paid Sabathia a Hudson River barge of money and with crunch time now here, the big lefty is 4-0 this month, with 2.35 ERA and opposing batters hitting a feeble .185 against him. Boston also plays a decent brand of baseball under the lights at 50-34. Beckett has allowed three or fewer runs in 15 of his last 18 starts, with the Red Sox 14-4. He’s been especially effective at Fenway Park with 8-0 mark and the team winning 10 of 11 starts. Beckett and the BoSox are 17-5 as favorites.

Game 3 Edge: Boston

The Yankees are the better team and have the more favorable pitching matchups in two of the three games with the last contest arguably a push. Nonetheless, the Red Sox will want to flush the unsavory taste of being swept in the Bronx and have the confidence of winning seven straight at Fenway over New York. Thus, I’ll make a slightly wavering choice of Boston for this weekend.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: N.Y. Yankees -135, Boston +105

3DW Pick: Boston

2009 Record – 7-9 (4 straight wins)

MLB Series Wagering- Rangers at Red Sox

The Texas Rangers maintain their lead in the American League West and to stay in the same spot, they will have to whether one of the roughest periods on the schedule. The Rangers just lost two out of three to the Yankees and are spending three days in New England to take on Boston, before heading home to play four with Toronto and a series next weekend against currently the best team in baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Texas (31-22, +10.7 units) is going to have to do this without one of its big sluggers, Josh Hamilton. He was placed on the disabled list Tuesday with a sports hernia and could miss up to two months or more if it requires surgery. Hamilton is currently resting and taking anti-flammatory medications in the hope he will be able to return in a more normal fashion from the DL. The talented centerfielder was not having a 130-rbi year like last season; nevertheless he’s an important cog in the Texas lineup and will be missed.

The Rangers arrive in Boston with 49-26 record having lost two of their last three games; however Fenway Park gives them the chills. Texas has lost eight in a row and nine of 11 at the venerable ball yard and will send Kevin Millwood (4-4, 3.23 ERA) to try his luck. Millwood came into camp in the best shape in years and has been more productive than wins and losses indicate. He is 10th in the AL in ERA and is 3-1 lifetime at Fenway. DiamondSportsbook.com has Texas as +125 underdog to Brad Penny (5-1, 5.63) and Boston.

The Red Sox (32-22, +4.4 units) are riding four-game winning streak and are 17-6 at home this season. With the total listed Ov10, that would seem to favor Boston who is 30-6 on home turf when the number is 10 or higher. Conversely, Millwood and the Rangers are 5-17 on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

Manager Terry Francona’s club feels pretty confident coming into this series. They had just completed 6-4 road trip and swept division leader Detroit, which gave them a tie atop the AL East with New York. This does not suggest everything is well in Red Sox nation. David Ortiz continues to hit about 30 or more pounds below his weight, with .187 batting average and will have his eyes tested. Kevin Youkilis was stepped on at first base, making him day to day for this series with bad calf. What has saved the Red Sox is starting pitching. As this weekend series begins, the Boston starters have 2.01 ERA in last five contests and when backed up with bullpen that has Major League best 2.86 earned run average, if the Red Sox could score just four runs, they will be difficult to beat.

The BoSox are 18-3 vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs a game on the season and will start Jon Lester (4-5, 5.65). The left-hander has been inconsistent, but is coming off career-high 12 strikeouts in his last start, a win over Toronto. Over six innings, Lester allowed one run on three hits and he and his teammates are 23-5 at Fenway.

Texas will counter with Derek Holland (1-2, 6.33). The 23-year old was brought up from the minors when injuries hit the Rangers starting staff. Holland physically matured a year ago and solved a few mechanical issues and throws true Texas heat. On the radar gun, mid-90’s is common and upper 90’s is not unusual. His future lies in ability to develop curveball that could make his power starter or power reliever. He’s made two starts and is 0-1 with 6.75 ERA and Boston is 12-4 against lefties. The Rangers on the other hand are 19-39 vs. southpaws.

Game 2 Edge: Boston

The final game of the series will have two veteran pitchers, trying to find their way in 2009. Vincente Padilla (3-3, 5.57) thought he was on his way in May with three razor-sharp performances, surrendering five runs total, in picking up three victories. He was then felled by strained right shoulder, which landed him on DL and in his first start back was clocked for seven runs in 3 2/3 innings. Maybe the light of day will help, since Padilla and Texas are 4-1 when he pitches day ball, with matching record as underdog this season.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-3, 7.17) finally broke into the win column in his last outing, allowing one run over five innings against Detroit. The right-hander walked three and struck out six. Matsuzaka has been taxing on the bullpen, having pitched into the sixth inning just once in 2009. Based on both pitchers current form, this could be high scoring affair, though the oddsmakers have taken into account both teams daytime activities and they are combined 20-18-1 UNDER when playing in the afternoon.

Game 3 Edge: Texas

Thus far, the picks have been lousy at best and twice talked myself out of the right plays. This won’t happen this week. Boston owns Texas at Fenway and has favorable pitching matchups in first two games and is playing with more confidence. The Red Sox can mash with Texas and is 10-2 vs. good power teams, averaging 1.25 or more home runs per game this year. Boston is the play.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Texas +190, Boston -250

3DW Pick: Boston

2009 Record – 2-5

MLB Series Betting- Red Sox at Blue Jays

The heavy sigh emitting out of the Toronto Blue Jays clubhouse is one of relief. Though everything is far from perfect, it’s nice to be home after a road trip that was as bad as it gets. On May 19, Toronto embarked on nine-game road trip, with 3 1/2 game lead in the AL East. After visits to Boston, Atlanta and Baltimore, the Blue Jays limped home 0-9 and in third place. The offense deserves most of the blame scoring 13 runs in first eight games. When the bats finally awoke, the bullpen couldn’t hold a five-run lead in the eighth inning in Baltimore and blew a two-run lead in extra innings in the same game. Manager Cito Gaston was relieved his club was off on Thursday, "I think it's going to be a welcome thing for all of us to get away from the game for a day and come back and pick up on Friday," said Gaston.

Boston earned a split in Minnesota, with 3-1 afternoon victory Thursday, to start 10-game road trip 2-2. "(Playing) .500 baseball on the road is pretty good," Jeff Bailey said. "If you can get above of that, it's excellent. It's a good thing -- especially coming off two straight losses -- to get that win." This allowed Boston to have half-game lead over New York for first place in the AL East.

The Red Sox have had their problems are artificial turf and are 11-23 on the fake stuff the last couple of years. Toronto is ninth in on-base percentage with .353 average and Boston is 18-4 vs. an AL team with an on base percentage of .345 or better this season. The Red Sox will start Tim Wakefield (6-2, 3.99) in the opener, who is 17-11 lifetime against the Jays with 3.68 ERA. DiamondSportsbook.com has Boston and their knuckle-baller as -114 money line favorites, with a total of Un10 and they are 16-7 OVER as a favorite of -110 or higher since last season.

Toronto counters with Casey Janssen (0-1, 4.50 ERA), who started six days ago and had a solid game, which was his first big league outing since 2007. He pitched six innings and allowed three runs after returning from torn labrum he suffered to pitching shoulder in March 2008. The Jays are 20-7 in home games after allowing eight runs or more, which they did in 12-10 loss to Orioles two days ago.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

This will be the first game of the day on Saturday, with just after 1:00 Eastern start and Toronto has won 11 of last 15 games on this day of the week. The Blue Jays coming into the series being one the best home team’s in baseball with 16-6 record, picking up +8 units of profit. Toronto has also enjoyed playing in the daytime with 14-5 record. They will start Brian Tallet (2-3, 4.31), who is a career reliever, forced into action with depleted starting staff. He’s pitched well in seven of eight starts and the left-hander has been much tough on right-hand batters who are hitting only .190 against him (lefty’s .270). He’s also pitched much better at the Rogers Centre with 2.66 ERA.

Brad Penny (5-1, 5.96) has a very good record, which doesn’t explain how poorly he has pitched, with ERA more indicative of efforts, coupled with a great deal of luck. In Penny’s nine starts, Boston batters have averaged 6.4 runs per game. He could be the beneficiary of more run support with the BoSox 10-3 versus left-hand starters.

Game 2 Edge: Boston

The series concludes with a battle of young port-siders going head to head. Boston’s Jon Lester (3-5, 6.07) has been a disappointment, continually finding too much of the plate and getting the ball up, as teams are hitting .307 against him this season. His ERA is over seven on the road, though he is 2-2 with a 3.52 ERA in six career starts against the Blue Jays. Ricky Romero (2-1, 3.08) is the Toronto hurler and the 24-year old is known as more of ground ball pitcher. In 26 1/3 innings, he has better than 3-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. Like most young pitchers, he throws much better at home, with 1.38 ERA. Romero generates fastball in the low-90’s, with a good curve. He’ll have to keep his wits about him, since the Red Sox come north of the border 10-3 OVER against lefties on the road.

Game 3 Edge: Toronto

Everything would seem to favor Boston in this series, having better pitchers facing a slumping team. The Red Sox pitchers haven’t exactly performed well and the Toronto pitchers have been much more effective on home turf. These teams have split last 18 contests at the Rogers Centre, thus expect a hotly-contested series, especially with Blue Jays having been swept. In the end, the Red Sox record against left-hander starters and having better bullpen make the difference.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Boston -125, Toronto -105

3DW Edge Pick: Boston

2009 Record – 2-4