Killer MLB System yields two plays

Last night turned out to be a bad night to be a sports bettor favoring the New York Yankees and Kansas City. The Yankees were bludgeoned 10-2 by the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto laid a 13-1 beat-down on the Royals. How might either team respond today?

One characteristic to look for is the money line number. The Yankees (58-34, +5.7 units) are a -185 ML favorite and Kansas City is -160 betting choice at online sports betting destinations. The Yankees number appears less justified (it almost always is), since the Angels Joel Pineiro (10-6, 3.95 ERA) has won seven games in a row (Halos have emerged victorious in eight straight Pineiro starts) and his teammates have rapped out 56 hits in their last five outings.

New York still has beaten L.A. 10 of last 15 at Yankees Stadium and manager Joe Girardi give the ball to Javier Vazquez (7-7, 4.45), who has a 1.80 ERA and WHIP of 0.900 in his last three starts, however is only 1-1, with his teammates making hardly a whimper at the plate totaling four runs in those starts.

Kansas City (40-53, -0.9) hasn’t lost a home series to Toronto in seven years and will send the reigning AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke (5-9, 3.67) to keep the streak alive. Greinke hasn’t been nearly as effective in 2010, having difficulties locating his pitches, surrendering more walks and base hits this season.

This is an issue facing a Toronto batting order that is finding a number of empty places where fielders can’t catch the ball, with astonishing 65 base-knocks in previous five contests.

The Royals may lead baseball in batting average at .281, but they are 22nd in runs scored (4.3 RPG). Conversely, the Blue Jays have a .245 team batting average (27th), even with this hot hitting streak, yet are 11th in runs scored, thanks to leading the Majors in home runs. At least Grienke has kept the ball in the yard, having gone four starts since last being taken deep.

The Yankees and Royals both fit an incredibly profitable sports betting strategy that reads this way:

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are swinging the lumber, batting .315 or better over their last five games, playing on Wednesday.

The whole “hump day” thing is a bit of a mystery, however the results are not at 66-11, 85.7 percent the last 13 seasons. This super system has not been in play as much in recent years, nonetheless is opulent 16-3 since 2006. This sports wagering tip also comes with a certain comfort level, as the averaging winning margin over 77 plays is 2.8 runs per game.

Both of today’s contests are in afternoon action, thus if this makes sense, act expediently.

July’s Good and Bad Baseball Pitcher’s

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

Firecrackers and the MLB All-Star game signal the month of July. It also signifies the start of the 2nd half of the MLB campaign. The key to each and every team’s fortune lies on the pitching staff. Can they sustain or will they fold like a deck of cards? Stay tuned. What we do know is certain pitchers love hurling this time of the season while others tend to get lit up like a roman candle.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of July. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in July team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each July over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with August’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Burnett, A.J. [9-2]
If there is one pitcher in baseball glad to see the calendar change it is Burnett (6-7, 5.25 ERA). For the month of June he was 0-5, with gargantuan 11.34 ERA. If you caught any of his pitched games, this is a hurler really struggling mentally. Of the 35 hits he allowed last month, 11 of them went over the wall. Burnett and the Yankees hope he turns around this month around quickly.

Cook, Aaron [12-6]
The Colorado pitcher is finding his groove after a rocky start (intentional play on words), lowering his ERA to 4.69. Cook (2-5) pitches to contact and his fastball has had more sink in the last several starts and if the Rockies are going to make run at NL West crown, they will need Cook to be cookin’.

De La Rosa, Jorge [11-5]
De La Rosa has been out since April 25 with torn tendon band in the middle finger of his throwing hand. He’s at Triple-A Colorado Springs working to get to big club.

Hamels, Cole [12-4]
He’s still only 26-years old, but the lefthander just hasn’t risen to the same level of excellence he achieved during the 2008 postseason. His 54-40 career record shows too many cement-mixer curve balls and change-ups left up in the zone. The Phillies bats have been quieter this season and Hamels (4.08) has to be better than 6-6 this season.

Haren, Dan [12-4]
Throwing for Arizona is not a comfortable position for starting pitcher. As a starter you fill like you have to throw a complete game since they have combustible bullpen. This has caused Haren (7-6, 4.56) to attempt to be too fine and he touched for 19 home runs and .282 batting average compared to career number of .253. Interesting to follow if he can retain July’s previous good fortune.

Johnson, Josh [8-2]
Johnson (8-3, 1.83) hasn’t given up three earned runs in a game since May 8, which covers nine starts. At 6’7, 250-pounds, he’s imposing figure and his mid-to-high 90’s heat jumps late, causing bad swings and misses. With the way the Marlins ace is throwing, he could be in for special month.

Lackey, John [14-3]
Lackey is a Texas native and heats up like the weather when it comes to wins and losses. He’s no longer the hard thrower that can go thru a line-up more than twice without making adjustments on the run. His 9-3 record is mixed with good fortune as his 4.46 ERA is run of the mill. In Lackey’s last seven starts, Boston has averaged 8.1 runs per game.

Lester, Jon [10-1]
The left-hander continues to quietly keep rising in the elite ranks of pitchers in baseball. His 51-19 career mark is among the best since 2006 and this season he been even more impressive with 9-3 record and 2.86 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .205 against him.

Lowe, Derek [10-5]
At 37, Lowe (9-6. 4.53) is no longer the pitcher worms used to fear, with opponents incessantly beating the ball into the ground for outs. The vast majority of outs Lowe still induces are still ground balls, but his command has been a little iffier in 2010, presently heading towards a career high in free passes. If he finds the groove, he and Atlanta should have another strong month.

Oswalt, Roy [10-2]
Oswalt (3.55) is heading towards his first losing season with 5-10 record playing for an inferior Houston club. Trade rumors abound for the 32-year pitcher, who would appreciate a change of scenery to recharge the competitive juices. If a team is interested in Oswalt, it should make a move now based on July figures.

Saunders, Joe [9-3]
Manager Mike Scioscia is known for his great patience in understanding the season is 162 games long and players are going to have ups and downs. Joe Saunders (6-8, 4.88) has been testing Scioscia’s resolve with a rollercoaster campaign. Saunders has been far more effective on the road (3.35 ERA vs. 6.18 at the Big A) and if he straightens out that part of game and pitches inside to RH hitters, he should have typical July.

Vazquez, Javier [10-5]
After a VERY choppy beginning, Vazquez (6-6, 5.16) is becoming the type of hurler GM Brian Cashman was hoping for. Vazquez has 3.78 ERA in last 10 starts and has better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Duke, Zach [2-9]
It’s becoming more a mystery why Duke (3-8, 5.49) stays in the Pittsburgh rotation. Yes, the Pirates are brutal, but do you really need a starter that opposing batters are slugging .322 against? This Duke is a dog. (As in “Here Duke”)

Greinke, Zack [2-8]
Last year’s Cy Young winner has had a rough go of it this season, with a combination of Kansas City bullpen failings and Greinke (3-8, 3.72) trying to do too much. He’s been sharper of late and might improve on this month’s historical record with a little support.

Harden, Rich [4-9]
On the DL with gluteal strain and is scheduled for a few bullpen sessions to start the month.

Parra, Manny [3-7]
Strictly a back of the rotation guy, Parra (2-5, 4.12) was returned to the Milwaukee rotation after they had nowhere else to turn to. His 3.98 ERA as starter isn’t all that bad, however this southpaw is being crushed by lefty hitters, conceding .380 BA.

Wellemeyer, Todd [4-8]
The Giants fifth starter has been on the DL since June 11 and according to team reports is expected to return to club in mid-July.


Doug Upstone of 3Daily Winners contributed to this article.

Kansas City favored to win? You Bet

In studying the Wednesday baseball board, one pitching matchup stands out more than the rest this evening, at least by reputation if not 2010 results. Jake Peavy (7-5, 4.71 ERA) of the White Sox heads to the Kauffman Stadium mound to take on last year’s Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke (3-8, 3.72). Neither pitcher has enjoyed the kind of success they would have expected to this point of the season, however several signs point to each having a big second half.

Peavy is also a Cy Young winner, having earned that honor in 2007 at San Diego. In his first full season with Chicago in the American League, Peavy’s had a difficult adjustment after pitching in Death Valley (Petco Park) and moving to U.S. Cellular Field. The right-hander really struggled to start the year with 5.90 ERA in his first dozen starts (4-5), but has caught fire recently. In his last three outings (coincidently against National League teams), Peavy has been domineering with 0.78 ERA, permitting 12 hits in 23 innings.

Greinke also has found trouble this season. The 26-year old righty started the year throwing well enough to win, but the bullpen was blowing leads or tied games and Grenike didn’t earn his first win until May 13, and started to press from that point forward. As he admittedly tried to throw a perfect pitch on each toss, he made more mistakes, not less and strikeouts went down and base hits allowed went up.

After being rocked for nine hits and six runs in only five innings in a 7-3 loss at Minnesota, a 1-8 Greinke reevaluated his situation. With Kansas City again going nowhere in the standings with 33-45 record, Greinke decided to relax and just pitch to his ability and not create unreal expectations for him or the team. In his last three trips to the rubber, he has 2.63 ERA, striking out 23 while walking just two during that stretch.

“He’s put together three pretty good starts here in a row,” manager Ned Yost said after Greinke gave up two runs and seven hits over eight innings in recent 4-2 win over St. Louis. “He’s gaining velocity on his fastball. His command’s been a lot better. He’s really pitching terrific.”

Oddsmakers have the Royals favored for the just the 14th time this season (5-8, -5.5 units) at -115 over Chicago and not because K.C. is 4-12 with Grienke as starter.

In theory, Kansas City should be a better club. They are second in the American League in hitting with a .282 team batting average. Where the Royals falter is from a power outage, Kansas City needs too many base knocks to score, being 12th in home runs in the AL (53), which leads to pedestrian mark of ninth in runs scored in.

Nonetheless, we find a MLB system that overlooks the Royals’ shortcomings and makes them a likeable favorite.

Play On home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher, a hot hitting team, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, against opponent with a tough starting pitcher, whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts.

This baseball situation has come in 77.5 percent of the time the past five years at 62-18. This MLB system has been dynamic 6-0 this year and average run differential is 2.5 per contest. Yes it is true the Pale Hose have been playing outstanding baseball (12-2), but they are 6-20 in road games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last five outings. Plus, the Royals offense doesn’t stay sour for long with 9-3 mark after scoring three runs or less in consecutive contests this season.

Take a good hard look at K.C; it might be a masterpiece, just like the barbeque sauce.

Baseball Pitching Disasters – circa 2010

You know when the news comes on TV or you are on checking your favorite news websites and it has videos of train wrecks, tornadoes, a tiger gnawing on a human being or some other calamity and you just have to watch no matter how graphic or shocking it is? For those that are sports betting baseball participants, the same is also true.

Every year we get dialed in to the best pitchers in baseball thru the media and are own wagering habits. It’s great to have MLB.tv and turn on Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum and even Stephen Strasburg, as they mow down one batter after another.

While this is good entertainment, it doesn’t necessarily help our wagering accounts unless you prefer relatively high risk, low reward options. Yes it is fantastic being all over Jimenez at 13-1 (up +12 units at most locations), however he’s been a freak this far into the season.
But what about the car wrecks, the pitchers that give away money like Pac Man Jones, whether it is thru their own incompetence or their jock gives them more support than their teammates. Here are noteworthy pitchers this season that are losing at alarming rates and have growing deficits just like the United States.

Zack Greinke – Kansas City

Many considered Greinke’s Cy Young season nothing short of remarkable a year ago. It’s very mentally difficult to pitch extremely well on a bad team and block out all the distractions that go along with this. Greinke’s had his own demons in the past, but he had appeared to put that all behind him and his tremendous ability would be good enough to overcome everything.

That has not been the case in 2010. Greinke is 2-8 with 3.94 ERA and could certainly have a better record on a better club. In four of his five no-decisions, he permitted five total earned runs, more than good enough to pick up a couple wins at least. He’s also been on the wrong side of a pair of 1-0 contests Kansas City has been involved in.

Maybe it’s not fair to compare a pitcher to the best year of his career, but facts are facts. Location has been an issue for the Royals right-hander. Last year he had 242 strikeouts, this year as he nears the midpoint of the season, Greinke’s at 83 punchouts. For the entire 2009 campaign, Greinke was taken over the fence 13 times, this season he’s had the head-jerker 11 times in 15 starts. Last year he allowed 0.85 hits per inning, this season 1.01 for every three outs.

“It's not perfect. It's not awful," Greinke said about this year. "Just not finishing off innings. ... Just not making perfect pitches when you need to and getting beat." With Kansas City 3-12 and sports bettors out a baseball worst -11.2 units, the guess is they would chime in and say it is really awful.

Ryan Dempster – Chicago Cubs

It’s a good thing baseball is a team game or Dempster and his agent might think of suing the Cubs for lack of support. Dempster’s 5-6 record isn’t terrible and his and his 3.56 ERA is quite good, however baseball bettors have dropped -9.2 units when he’s pitched. In 10 of Dempster’s 15 starts, he’s pitched into the seventh inning and allowed three runs or less, yet the Cubs are a mere 4-6. Opponents are only hitting .221 against him, but his chief flaw is missing his location at the wrong time, being tagged for 14 home runs, which is the same figure he permitted for the 2008 season when he won 17 games.

Brian Matusz and Jeremy Guthrie – Baltimore Orioles

This is like a combined entry in horse racing by a single owner. These are two mediocre pitchers on an odious baseball team. This less than dynamic duo is 5-17 and the O’s are 6 -24 when they take the mound. Guthrie isn’t really pitching any worse than he has in his career with 4.28 ERA compared to 4.27 since making his first major league roster in 2004. Nonetheless, he’s not been able to step up and really help his team and left-handed hitters are batting .50 points higher (.275) than right-hand hitters.

Right now the best aspect of Brian Matusz is the fact he’s 23 years old and throws from the left side. Matusz is mostly inconsistent, one good outing is followed by getting ripped the next and opposing clubs are batting a healthy .281 against him (conversely Baltimore has two hitters batting higher than .281) and surprising he’s been hit hardest by those he should have the most success against. Lefty hitters are a robust .311 against the Colorado native and in day games, his ERA jumps to 6.32.

Aaron Harang – Cincinnati Reds

There are 14 pitchers this season that are -5.2 units or worse than Harang of the Reds, but the 6’7 right-hander is carving out a niche of his own. In 2007, Harang was 16-6 and Cincinnati was 24-10, making him the best bet in baseball at +13.1 units. Since then, Harang has been like a port-a-john, he gives off an odor. In the past three seasons, Harang is 17-38 and cost Reds backers 16.9 units. Manager Dusty Baker prefers veteran players to youngsters and he sends Harang out there in his regular turn as the No. 3 starter despite information to the contrary.

In the past three years, batters are striping Harang for .289 BA and in this timeframe he’s been taken yard 71 times or once every six innings pitched. Baker, being old school, looks at the strikeouts to walk ratio and sees better than 3-1, yet this stuff has become slightly better than batting practice, permitting 493 hits in 433 2/3 innings. The Reds are 5-10 in his 15 outings this year and he taxes the bullpen more often than not. Let’s be honest, even though Harang is relatively young at 32, unless he finds a way to start missing more bats, he will be out of the league sooner than later.

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Baseball Systems that round the bases

On this Tuesday in baseball, believe it or not there are other baseball games as or possibly even more important than Pittsburgh at Washington. While you can still buy a ticket to Roy Halladay’s perfect game in Florida (at full price no less, go Marlins), there are four baseball systems (plus a bonus play) in place tonight for the online sports betting fan which could add to cash to wagering account.

Florida at Philadelphia 7:05E

Another lesser known rookie will be making his debut, as power hitter Mike Stanton will be in the Marlins batting order. The 20-year-old outfielder has been tearing it up Double-A Jacksonville (hitting .311 with 21 homers and 52 RBIs in 52 games) and his first big league at bat will be against Kyle Kendrick (3-2, 4.62 ERA) who has found a groove and is 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA in his last six outings.

Philadelphia (30-26, -6.4 units) still isn’t hitting the baseball, averaging two runs per contest in last 13 outings, however their fielding has been impeccable, with no errors in last five games. The Phillies are -138 money line choice and favorites with a ML of -125 to -175, after three straight games where they committed no errors, starting a pitcher whose given up one or less earned runs in his last two outings are 65-19 since 2006. (Note: The San Francisco Giants and Matt Cain also fit this system)

Toronto at Tampa Bay 7:10E

The Rays are seventh in the American League in home runs, but still manufacture runs well enough to be third in baseball at 5.2 per game. Tampa Bay (37-20, +6.5) won on Sunday 9-5 in Texas to salvage a .500 road trip and send Jeff Niemann (5-0, 2.79) up against Toronto’s (33-25, +12) power laden lineup.

The Blue Jays lead the Major’s in home runs yet only bat .245 as a team and Niemann and the Rays are 8-0 vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. Tampa Bay is a -195 ML pick and home favorites with a ML of -175 to -250, averaging 0.9 or less dingers a game on the season, after a win by four runs or more, are 27-4 the previous three years.

Kansas City at Minnesota 8:10E

Zack Grienke (1-7, 3.60) might be feeling the pressure of late with the lack of run support and trying to be too perfect. Last year’s Cy Young award winner has a 7.04 ERA in last three starts, allowing 24 hits in 15 1/3 innings. He’s received the lowest run support in the American League at 2.64 per start.

“The last month I haven’t really been myself, I guess,” said Greinke. “Everything looks tougher, like the hitters look better and the strike zone looks smaller. It just seems tougher out there at the moment.”

The Kansas City hurler will take on a Minnesota team (33-24, +3.2) scrambling for bodies with a number of injuries and not hitting the ball. With oddsmakers setting the total Un8, the play is UNDER when a ice cold hitting team is batting .200 or worse over their last five games, against opponent with a frigid starting pitcher, whose ERA is 7.00 or higher over his last three starts. In the last 13 years this system is 67-28 below the number.

St. Louis at L.A. Dodgers 10:10E

The Cardinals offense could be a Dateline mystery on NBC, ranking a pedestrian 14th overall at 4.6 runs per game. Manager Tony LaRussa gave the appearance at least that last night’s game was not particularly important using two pitchers Blake Hawksworth and P.J. Walters, in a 12-4 loss to Los Angeles (34-24, +3.6).

Evidently, LaRussa is focusing on the last two games of the series and has Chris Carpenter (7-1, 2.76) on one extra day rest taking on Dodgers starter Hiroki Kuroda (5-4, 3.63). Carpenter is 9-0 with a 2.42 ERA in his last 14 regular-season road starts; however has 5.21 ERA when pitching with five or more days rest.

Does it make it a wise to bet to back the underdog Dodgers at +115, since National League clubs scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a contest vs. a NL starter with an ERA of 3.70 or less, after allowing 10 runs or more, are 19-49?

Will Zack Greinke finally win?

If it wasn’t so absurd it might be laughable for current Cy Young winner Zack Greinke (0-4, 2.51 ERA, 1.050 WHIP). Grienke is 11th in the American League in ERA and seventh in WHIP, yet he has not registered a victory this season pitching for the Kansas City Royals.

At this time a year ago he had six wins and all the talented right-hander can say is “I’m just trying to keep us in ball games. We’re just getting beat right now,” Greinke stated.

The Royals lack of success falls into one broad pool. The Royals ace has to be perfect every time because his offense is objectionable. In his seven starts Kansas City hitters have scored a grand total of 17 runs, 2.4 per outing. K.C. is 1-6 in Greinke’s outings and he’s placed them in position to win two other games, but the bullpen blew those opportunities.

The Royals will look to avoid being swept by Cleveland at home. The Indians are on a three-game winning streak and have three consecutive double digit hit games in a row for the first time this season. This is certainly a rarity for club with a .248 team batting average.

David Huff (1-4, 4.60, 1.500) will toe the rubber for the Tribe, looking to avoid a fourth straight loss. Huff has really struggled of late with 7.16 ERA in three previous trips to the mound, allowing 34 hits + walks combined in 16.1 innings. Of the 25 base hits conceded, six were home runs which takes his total to seven dingers in only five starts.

Sportsbooks have the Indians as +170 money line underdogs and they fall into a negative super system.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, who are below average AL hitting team at .265 or less, against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20), with a starting pitcher who gives up one or more home runs a start.

Kansas City has lost seven in a row and won’t run into many better opportunities than this for a much needed victory. Since 1997, this system is 87-24, 78.4 percent with the favorite winning by two runs on average. Greinke is 5-7 lifetime against Cleveland but is 3-0, with 2.52 ERA in his last six starts against the Indians.

If Greinke pitches his usual game and Huff continues to be ineffective, every reason to believe the Tribe falls to 13-37 vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters.

MLB 's Best and Worst Pitcher in April

Gave our friend Marc Lawrence a call to talk a little baseball and see what he is up to with college basketball windowing closing. We got talking about the importance of starting pitchers and bullpens when it comes to wagering on the big leagues. We both agreed you can’t win the pennant in April but you can certainly lose it with a sluggish start and weaknesses exposed.

At Marc’s Playbook.com, he has for the last several years compiled a list of good and bad pitchers per month and he shared that list with me. Below is the complete list, along with why each of them performs in this manner.

APRIL GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:
Beckett, Josh 10-4
Buehrle, Mark 10-3
Greinke, Zach 10-5
Hernandez, Felix 10-4
Hudson, Tim 8-3
Looper, Braden 12-3
Matsuzaka, Daisuke 8-4
Moyer, Jamie 10-5
Penny, Brad 10-4
Saunders, Joe 11-3
Wainwright, Adam 11-4
Webb, Brandon 11-1

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:
Arroyo, Bronson 5-10
Zito, Barry 4-10

Arroyo – Throws strikes and changes speeds on his fastball continually. Likes to mix in changeup and eats up a number of innings. He is more a feel pitcher and with the colder weather in the opening month, the baseball tends to be slicker which doesn’t give him as much command, explaining his slow starts.

Beckett- Power pitcher with drop and drive delivery. His strength is low to mid-90’s fastball with one of the best curveball’s in baseball.

Buehrle – Doesn’t impress many radar guns topping out around 87 MPH, but is expert at working both sides of the plate and like most left-handers has tailing fastball to right-hand batters. Changeup and slow curve makes fastball appear quicker.

Greinke – Skill and ability finally meshed as Greinke started last season 6-0 in 2-009 with late-1960’s Bob Gibson-like like ERA of 0.40. Tremendous arm, with a real feel for how to pitch, who put it all together to be AL Cy Young winner in 2009 on a bad ballclub.

Hernandez –Still only 23 years old, King Felix has mid-90 fastball and superior breaking pitches. He also a heavy sinker that batters have said is like “swinging and hitting a bowling ball”. That’s a pitch most hitter’s don’t want to swing at when the temps are in the 30’s and 40’s.

Hudson – Coming off Tommy John surgery, interesting to see how he starts.

Looper- Last reported as free agent.

Matsuzaka – Has neck injury rehabbing.

Moyer – Internet reports of Moyer being a rookie learning to pitch from Christy Mathewson (google this name) are unfound, as the lefty continues to confound batters with slow, slower and slower yet pitches, being able to spot them where needed.

Penny –The big right-hander could not have found a better place to resurrect his career. Working with pitching guru Dave Duncan should be a blessing for this flyball pitcher. Duncan will work with Penny not to overthrow and improve slow breaking pitches.

Saunders – Lost ability to work down and inside on right-hand batters and was tattooed frequently last season. Historically, fast starter and needs to for confidence reason on Angels club that needs him more this season.

Wainwright – The last two seasons has been among the best pitchers in all of baseball. Helps himself by being good hitter and won Golden Glove for fielding.

Webb – Out indefinitely coming back from shoulder surgery.

Zito – Similar to Arroyo, doesn’t throw hard, but not as good at spotting pitches. Has big loopy curveball that is batting practice material if it doesn’t break to the knees. Can sail along for four innings and give up a five-spot in a manner of minutes.

MLB Series Wagering- Tampa Bay at Kansas City

The Tampa Bay Rays start the second half of the season believing they can play much better baseball then they did most of the first half of the year. The Rays (48-41, -0.7 units) trail the New York Yankees by four losses in the wild card chase and Boston by seven for the AL East division lead. In some ways, Tampa Bay feels fortunate they are still within reach of the postseason after floundering at or below .500 for the first two months of the season. "We didn't play nearly our best baseball," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "We did at times, but a little bit too streaky."

One area that needs immediate shoring up is Tampa’s play on the road. They Rays are 18-26 (-7.8) and the skipper thinks his team is capable of turning this around. “We just have to get out there in the second half. We have to take advantage and not make the same kinds of mistakes that put us in a bind in the first half. We're capable of that. We're capable of playing a higher level of baseball on a more consistent basis." Maddon said.

Kansas City (37-51, -13.9 units) starts the second half having lost five of six and in search of winning formula from last September that fueled this season’s optimism. The Royals first order of business is finding ways to score more runs. Kansas City ranks 28th in runs scored at 3.9 per game and hopes Alex Gordon can provide offensive punch coming off of hip surgery.

After bouncing back and forth, Royals manager Trey Hillman has decided on Brian Bannister (6-7, 3.66) as his opening game starter. Bannister is off arguably the best game of his career, throwing seven shutout innings at Boston before tiring slightly in allowing one run on three hits in over 7 2/3 in 3-1 triumph. Coming into the series, Kansas City had won only three of last dozen contests at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals are 4-1 in Bannister’s home starts against winning teams, but 7-20 in night games over the last two seasons when he’s been called upon (Royals Record). The Royals are +130 money line home underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total Un8.5. The Royals are 18-6 UNDER in the second half of the season.

Tampa Bay will counter with James Shields (6-6, 3.42), who is 2-4 on the road, with the Rays winners only twice in his eight starts as visitor. The Rays are off a pair of losses, but have enjoyed great success on Friday’s with 29-11 mark. Shields’ has liked the look of Royals uniform and is 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in five career starts against Kansas City. He’s averaged nearly a strikeout per inning against K.C. (32) in the 36 innings he’s worked, while allowing just three free passes. The Rays are 14-3 UNDER July in road games since last year.

Game 1 Edge: Tampa Bay

Because of the shifting of Royals rotation, ace Zack Greinke (10-5, 2.12 ERA) only pitched one inning in the All-Star game, will start Game 2. Greinke hasn’t been quite as effective as he was early in the season, when he was un-hittable and has lost his last two starts, though the 3-1 loss the last time out was in part due to shabby K.C. defense. Historically, the Royals and Greinke don’t do as well if he pitches the middle game of series, showing a dismal 12-30 record.

Only staunch baseball bettors might know this, Tampa Bay’s offense ranks third in baseball at 5.3 runs per game. Besides pounding out 9.3 hits per game on average, the former Devil Rays have newfound patience as the dish, walking 4.1 times per game, which is third best in baseball, just behind the Yankees and Red Sox. The former masthead of the Rays staff, Scott Kazmir (4-5, 7.11) will take the ball for middle encounter. Since being injured, the lefthander has not been effective, but at least pain-free. Having last won on May 9, Kazmir hopes pitching in a Game 2 situation will turn luck around since he and his teammates are 22-5 in that spot.

Game 2 Edge: Kansas City

The series finale will be afternoon affair. The Rays are 16-13 playing in the light of day, with Kansas City unsightly 12-19. Matt Garza (6-7, 3.73) is one of the American League’s biggest enigmas. Only a handful of hurlers have his stuff, yet he finds a way to have one bad inning and has losing record. He’s 0-4 with 4.02 ERA against K.C. The Royals will send Luke Hochevar (5-3, 5.34) to toe the slap. Since returning in early June for stint in minors, Hochevar has pitched up to his capabilities, with 5-1 record and 3.97 ERA. Besides the quality record, he’s been innings-eater with six of last seven starts lasting as least six innings.

Game 3 Edge: Kansas City

Thought this was a good week to change it up and go with a few teams that don’t receive much of the acclaim. The matchup is very close, but Tampa Bay has poor road record and two of its starters in this series are fumbling along, not pitching well. Similar to a thin slice of pastrami, I’ll support the Royals by the slimmest of margins.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Tampa Bay -125, Kansas City -105

3DW Pick: Kansas City

Climbing up the hump on Hump Day

Got punched in the mouth but good yesterday with 0-3 record. It was one of those days you felt it coming, since I missed both personal wagers, and if I would have been real smart, would have passed yesterday all together. But this blog is about information and sometimes you win and sometimes you don’t. In our last 127 plays we are 75-50-3, 60 percent. We come right back to same series for Best System that is 62-9, none too shabby. Heading to the ice for Top Trend, wondering if Red Wings close out series? Sal off a sharp day, can he keep it up with Free play, check it out. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday- Zack Grienke allowed six hits in a complete-game 6-1 victory over the Tigers, raising his ERA to 0.84 in 10 starts this season. Greinke is only the third pitcher in the live-ball era to compile an ERA below 1.00 over his first 10 starts in a season. The others were Hoyt Wilhelm (0.83 in 1959) and Juan Marichal (0.59 in 1966).

Free Baseball System-1) This system is hybrid version of article listed below about Pale Hose and Halos and it reads this way – PLAY AGAINST underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This is Jered Weaver and Angles at 62-9, 87.3 percent.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Detroit Red Wings are 11-0 in home games after playing two games where seven or more total goals were scored.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal was 5-0 yesterday and likes Minnesota Twins to series over Boston.

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Keeping track of the Numbers Game

Every now and again it is a good time to take stock of things around us. Though we feel everything is under control, sometimes our perceptions don’t deal with the facts and we go around thinking we have the right information, when we really don’t. Decided to take some time and do some digging and see what can be found in the three major sports that are playing presently.

NBA

Wagering on the playoffs tends to be unsettling for most sports bettors. Starting with you can watch virtually every game and just have so few contests to take into account for, it’s as easy as grabbing that one more piece of pizza, when you have already had one too many. It can be a quixotic crusade if one gets upside down or if things go well, a real confidence booster.

Home Favorites against the spread have been about as ordinary has the come with 24-25-1 ATS record, with the chalk 36-14 straight up. The totals have shown a modest lean to the OVER side with 28-22 mark.

Road Favorites are 7-3 and 5-4-1 ATS and have played UNDER in eight of 10 meetings, including 6-0 UNDER in the Eastern Conference.

NHL

As usual, home ice is not especially important in the Stanley Cup playoffs, particularly early. The difference in talent between a high seed and low seed is not as dramatic as what you will find in professional basketball. Overall, home favorites are 29-21, with teams in the Western Conference doing a better job at 15-8.

Because postseason hockey is less free-wheeling, the UNDER is often a solid play and again has been in 2009 with 26-19-5 record.

Big home favorites (-200 or higher) have shown a real division by conferences thus far. East home faves are 4-0 and 3-1 OVER, while out West, they are losing proposition at 4-3 and are 5-1-1 UNDER.

Road favorites are 9-6 and the totals have been down the middle in these contests with 5-5-5 showing.

MLB

Toronto and the Los Angeles Dodgers have been the best teams in respective leagues to this point and winning wagers. The Blue Jays are 22-12, +9.4 units and the Dodgers are 22-11, +8.8 units. These teams are not flukes either, with Toronto +50 run differential and L.A. +57, each easily the best in their leagues.

In trying to spot frauds or clubs on the rise, its noteworthy the New York Yankees have allowed the most runs in baseball at 6.2 per game, including seven or more in 12 different games.

If Oakland can find offense, they might make large improvement. The A’s are only -10 run differential and are third in the American League in runs allowed at 131. The bullpen has been tremendous with 2.82 ERA, however scoring only 4.17 runs a game leaves at 11-18. They have been particularly vulnerable against left-hand starters with 3-11 mark.

Maybe the numbers will even out later, but Colorado is 12-18, despite a +3 run difference. The Rockies have been bitten by the one run bug, with 1-8 record in close encounters thus far in 2009.

If you don’t have MLB.TV, you are missing something as a sports bettor. Zack Greinke suffered his first loss of the season at the Big A in Anaheim Saturday, losing 1-0 to Joe Saunders and the Angels. Greinke went into that game just the third pitcher in baseball history to start 6-0 with ERA under 0.50 (Fernando Valenzuela and Walter Johnson the others). Though the 25-year old didn’t have his best stuff of the season, he allowed four hits over eight innings, with five strikeouts and no walks. Not giving up a free pass was particularly impressive, as he went to three balls with a number of Angels hitters.

Saunders was even more outstanding, yielding no runs on five hits, with six K’s and one walk in complete game shutout.

Greinke gave up double to Gary Mathews Jr. and two sacrifices later, Saunders had all the runs he needed in snappy 2:05 of old school baseball that was far from dull despite the score.