MLB division leaders a safe second half bet

A quick glance at the standings today has New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox and Texas in first place in the American League, with Tampa Bay as wild card team, using the dreaded term “if the season ended today”.

In the National League, it is Atlanta, Cincinnati and San Diego, with Colorado and the Los Angeles Dodgers tied for the final playoff spot.

Without too much thought, the White Sox, Reds and Padres appear to be the most vulnerable of giving up their division leads by October 3 (the last day of the regular season), as the Pale Hose have to uncover another starting pitcher to replace Jake Peavy, who was coming on and the two clubs from the senior circuit have a “pretender” feel about them. However, based on recent history, all six division leaders could be relatively good “play on” teams the rest of the year.

Don’t misunderstand, I’m not suggesting to play these teams every day, in fact in some cases you might not want to play them at all for week given a slump or rugged road trip. Let’s face it; can you really expect San Diego to improve on baseball best +17.2 units with their 51-37 first half record? Not by much if at all really. Nonetheless, as a sage bettor told me more than once, “A fool and his money are soon to part without a look in the rearview mirror.”

The last two years, nine of the 12 All-Star break leaders went on to capture their respective division crowns and 10 of 12 made their way into the postseason. That’s 83.3 percent, a rather healthy figure and look around at any website that has full season baseball units won/lost records, will mostly show these clubs in black numbers and in the Top 10 in baseball for that particular year.

2009 (All-Star break position – final standings position)
Boston - 1st – Wild card
Detroit – 1st – Minnesota wins division in playoff
L.A. Angels – 1st – 1st
Philadelphia – 1st -1st
St. Louis – 1st – 1st
L.A. Dodgers 1st – 1st

2008 (All-Star break position – final standings position)
Tampa Bay – 1st – 1st
Chic. White Sox – 1st -1st
L.A. Angels – 1st – 1st
Philadelphia – 1st – 1st
Chic. Cubs – 1st – 1st
Arizona – 1st – L.A. Dodgers win division

Since 2002, 30 of the 48 All-Star break leaders have gone on to be division champions and five more were playing postseason baseball.

With rare exception do these teams completely fold, unless ravaged by injury. That’s not to say any squad is above a costly September swoon, like the New York Mets in 2007 (5-12 record - Sept. 14 until season end) and 2008 (6-10 close) or the 2005 World Series champion Chicago White Sox (Sept. 8-27, 7-12).

While crazy things do happen for those betting sports, a good team is still a good team and often playoff contender’s feast on other clubs whose season has long since been over except for completing the schedule. (Insert Pittsburgh here, since they have endured the curse of Barry Bonds, without a winning season since he left after 1992 campaign)

Taking on sports betting lines from oddsmakers is a different proposition in the second half of the schedule, as they start to add volume to first place favorites, taking the stance if you want bet the chalk, you need the intestinal fortitude to back it up with cash. However, it is not uncommon for these types of teams to win five or more in a row and if you started the winning streak with them, much like betting additional numbers on a craps table with hot shooter, the winnings more than offset one loss or bad roll.

As always, be selective, pick your spots and don’t be anxious or greedy, two absolute sins of gambling.

One final point, understand the workings of the wild card. In the past eight years, the AL team the ultimately earned the wild card slot was already in this position at the break or in first place. That is good news for Tampa Bay.

Conversely in the NL, only the 2006 Dodgers, who were tied for first place with San Diego, have made the postseason as the fourth team supposedly poised to be playing in October. This is not good news for Rockies or Dodgers backers at present.

Mets in marvelous betting spot

Oddsmakers looked at Jason Verlander and Detroit (38-31, +5.1 units) in New York last night and thought they had a mismatch. The Tigers opened as -124 money line favorites and the wagering public agreed with those setting the line, boosting them to -141 choice by game time. It turns out everyone was correct that this interleague game would be one-sided; they just had the wrong team.

The New York Mets (40-30, +10.9) jumped on Verlander early, knocking him out after two-plus innings, scoring five runs on five hits and taking the three free passes he doled out. The Mets hitters went to work on the Detroit bullpen, tallying nine more runs for a leisurely 14-6 win.

That raised New York’s home record to 25-10, the same as their cross-town rivals the Yankees and second in the big leagues only to Atlanta (24-7).

The Mets ascension in the NL East standings has been due to good starting pitching, an offense that can score runs in bunches and a bullpen that can shutdown opponents. On the year the Mets relievers have 3.60 earned run average and they have particularly stingy at Citi Field with 2.17 ERA.

Tonight, the Mets will send knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (5-0, 2.82 ERA) to the mound, as they look to improve on 10-3 mark in interleague play. Oddsmakers have New York as -118 money line favorite and they are 15-4 at home when the ML is +125 to -125 this season.

They will face Jeremy Bonderman (3-4, 4.06) who has pitched well in recent outings but has not won two games in a row since June of 2007. Injuries have played a part for his lack of success the past few seasons; nonetheless he has 6.03 ERA on the road in 2010. This sets up the Mets nicely to be a potential strong wager this evening on ESPN.

Play against road teams after a game where the bullpen was rocked for six or more earned runs, against opponent with strong relievers, whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games.

In the last five seasons, this system is 64-21, 75.3 percent, including 3-0 this year. The Metropolitans are streaking this month with a 14-4 June record and the Tigers are 0-8 after allowing 10 or more runs in previous outing. If you plan on watching tonight’s telecast, the action appears to be one way.

Lakers large and in charge

Have you noticed how calm the Lakers have been this postseason? Yes, they have lost four road games and been 2-2 in two different series, plus gave away a few fourth leads the caused spread losses for backers, but not once have Kobe Bryant and the rest of his teammates looked truly flustered and exasperated to the point where they appeared beatable in a series.

Game 1 was perfect example as Los Angeles was methodical in beating Boston. The Lakers were up by five after the first quarter, led by nine and the half and salted the contest away with 34-23 third stanza, building insurmountable 84-64 lead.

Phil Jackson’s club is 9-2 ATS after a playoff win this spring and are under control. After the Lakers ended the series against Phoenix in Game 6, the talk in the desert was the Suns lack of defensive intensity, as the Lake Show has 91 points after three quarters. Who would have ever guessed the defensive-minded Celtics would have permitted 84 points with 12 minutes still left to play?

It was shocking how little resistance Boston put up. Early today if you Googled the term “non-factor”, pictures of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Kendrick Perkins and Kevin Garnett all appeared. Paul Pierce was the only Celtics player showing any game close to what Celtics would expect, but that was mostly in the final quarter when the outcome was already determined, as they fell to 6-19 ATS versus teams averaging 83 or more shots a game this year.

To borrow a little Dick Vitale speak, the Lakers were ‘windex-men” cleaning the glass, outrebounding Boston by 42-31. With Pau Gasol having eight offensive rebounds, you would have thought he had grown a foot.

When Doc Rivers was asked about the last time he remembered his team being so outclassed on the boards, he responded this way. “I don’t know if I recall one,” he said. “But I know if there was, we lost that game, too. I can guarantee you that.”

You don’t rebound; you don’t win. What’s true during the regular season holds even truer now.
“They killed us on the glass,” he said.

What can Boston do to plot an upset in Game 2? Of course they have to rebound better, which might entail sending more players to the glass on the defensive side and once the ball is secured, immediately find Rondo and let him fire up the jets to beat L.A. down the floor. Rondo has to show better judgment with the ball in his hands.

The Celtics staff has to find ways to rub Pierce off Ron Artest’s “krazy glue” defense. Garnett can’t be dominated by Gasol, he has to work harder for rebounds and make medium range jump shots to pull the big man from Spain away from the bucket.

The Lakers offense is especially fluid at the Staples Center, which suggests Perkins has to be more a factor on the offense end besides setting screens. Though his scoring skills are limited, Perkins has to defeat Andrew Bynum in the post and be fed the ball for dunks or layups. Rivers and his coaches usually make solid adjustments and are 9-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.

Oddsmakers have L.A. as a six-point fave with total of 190.5 and they are 8-3 ATS after breaking the century mark. With two days between contests the Lakers are 12-4 UNDER this season. The Celtics will have to be much more assertive and are 22-10 ATS away from home after consecutive games with 19 or less assists. The last five times Boston has allowed 100 or more points, the next contest goes UNDER the number.

This matchup has earlier start time of 8:00 Eastern on ABC and this is an absolute must win for the team in green, as it appears very unlikely they would sweep three at home.

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Big Men to play big roles in South Region

This time of year the mantra of winning college basketball is having great guard play. Every team reportedly needs a player that can control the tempo, knockdown shots and defend the perimeter. But what about a big fella in the middle? One who can score in the paint area and draw fouls to help his team get in the bonus shooting free throws sooner, resulting in fewer empty trips. Another example would crashing the offensive boards on errant shots for demoralizing baskets and what about having an intimidating defensive presence that makes shooters wary when they are within several feet of the rim! All four teams have individual or collective players that could be the reason they move on to Sunday’s Elite Eight.

Omar Samhan vs. the Waco Gang

Tenth-seeded St. Mary’s has much the same feel as the conference partner Gonzaga had back in 1999. That Gonzaga team went to the Elite 8, with three consecutive upsets, led by guards Matt Santangelo and Richie Frahm. Watching that team play, you were struck by the fact they looked like a collection of guys that would be playing at the health club in the not too distant future, not being Mickey D’s All-Americans with a professional career in their future.

Taking a gander at St. Mary’s (28-5, 22-9 ATS), their team has many of those same qualities except for one person, Omar Samhan. The Gaels big man is one of the finest centers in the country and a terrific example of someone who benefitted from four years of collegiate ball. He has an assortment of moves around the basket and always works to make himself available for passes to the post, which is how he’s scored 61 points in two games. Samhan this season has become a more skilled passer, able to find open shooters on the weak side as double-teams are about to arrive. He’s a very big reason why St. Mary’s is 16-6 ATS facing defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers game this season.

He and 6’11 Ben Allen will be dueling with Baylor’s big men.

The Bears (27-7, 17-10 ATS) have the size and quickness edge in the paint with 7’0 Josh Lomers and 6’10 Ekpe Udoh. It appears Udoh will probably draw Samhan on defense and he has the quickness and arm length to play denial defense and shot-blocking skill to make him hesitant. Lomers also will undoubtedly take a few turns and he has the bulk to match strength with St. Mary’s big men.

Udoh is also a rim-runner, able to play at accelerated pace, which makes him devastating dunker and exceptional offensive rebounder. Baylor’s length at several positions on the floor allows them to be 7-0 ATS vs. excellent three point shooting teams converting 41 or better of their attempts.

Baylor is a 4.5-point favorite, with total having dipped to 142 at DiamondSportsbook.com. Though Waco is a long way from Houston (where this game is being played), Texans tend to stick together and the Bears will have partisan fan-base. The Bears are 11-2 ATS having won four of their last five games and are 14-3 OVER after playing a game as favorite this season. Don’t expect St. Mary’s to be intimidated, with the gregarious Samhan always having something to say.

The Gaels are 8-1 ATS in any tournament game this year and 10-seeds are 4-7 SU against three seeds in this round. One bad note for St. Mary’s, if this 10-seed didn’t make the tournament last year (which the Gaels did not), they are 0-7 SU.

JaJuan Johnson takes on Duke brigade

Purdue (29-5, 15-18-1 ATS) lacked size before Robbie Hummel went down, now they have to find other ways to win. Coach Matt Painter has dug into the old Southern Illinois playbook (his last stop), where he made size not matter. To upset Duke as 8.5-point underdogs, the Boilermakers are going to have to win the battle on the perimeter and have Johnson create a stalemate inside.

Johnson has good moves around the basket, however, as he exhibited against the stronger Texas A&M big men, he can go outside and bank 15-footers and comfortably make 18-footers, which opens the middle for cutters. Much like the win over the Aggies, Purdue has to manufacture points and have a high number of points per possession. The Boilers have cashed eight of previous 11 tickets as neutral site pooches.

Duke (31-5, 20-14-1 ATS) can bring tall, strong players in waves. Center Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas start things off with solid defense and score enough to have to be guarded by opponent. Next comes the Plumlee brothers, both are aggressive rebounders on each of the floor and what they lack in quicks, they make-up for by using bodies to stay fundamentally sound. Like Purdue, the Blue Devils permit 61 points per game and their opponents only convert 40.1 percent of the time. With Duke’s defense, they are 8-2 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game this year.

The oddsmakers believe Purdue will control the tempo, with 126.5 listed total. The Boilermakers can’t allow many short Duke runs of 6-0 or 8-2, since they lack the firepower to run with the Blue Devils and are 6-13-1 ATS after a cover dating back to last season. Jon Scheyer and teammates only committed five turnovers against California last Sunday and are 8-1 ATS after a game committing eight or less miscues.

This was the only region to have expected 1 vs 4 matchup. The top seeds are 26-10 SU, winning by 8.6 points per game. A key number for the lower seed is score differential to pull the upset. Four seeds that win by 10 or more points are 7-6 when these seeds collide; all others are 3-18 SU. (Purdue is +9.9)

Saint Patrick's Day plays

Tuesday was an excellent day at 3DW with 3-1 record. Discovered a really outstanding NBA system that is 88.9 percent. The top trend is perfect, following the worst team in professional basketball. The LCC stays hot and has another underdog with top Free play. Good Luck

What I’m sharing today- Eighteen years ago I put together a first round system that has shown a profit 14 times betting the first 32 games. I will tell you, the NCAA committee and the oddsmakers have eroded this system, since the matchups and the lines where this system found good plays has lost the last two years. I used to find six to 10 plays, however it is down to four this year. In order is BYU, Robert Morris, Washington and Wofford.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On home teams like Dallas off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, against opponent off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. The line has jumped higher on the Mavs, which could test system that spine-tingling 24-3 ATS, 88.9 percent.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Oddsmakers are working to combat this angle, as New Jersey is 10-0 ATS in road games second half of this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The LCC consensus is smoking hot with four straight winners here and tries for No. 5 with St. John’s (7-0) in college hoops.

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Be a Betting Champion for Conference Tournaments

The regular season is over except for one Ivy League game and the automatic bids are starting to fill in part of the NCAA Tournament dance card, with many of the so-called mid-majors having their conference championships completed. This leaves the bigger and more well-known conferences, along with a sprinkling of somewhat smaller leagues to start filling in with their respective teams.

In order to win during ESPN’s Championship week, you have to follow somewhat different rules than the regular season in wagering this week. Here are aspects to remember.

1) Choosing the right pooch

In most conferences tourney’s, underdogs are an above average wager, as these teams generally have more motivation and likely need to win to get in the tournament. One thing to look for is underdogs that have lost to opponent by 10 or more points twice and are double digit dogs before the semi-final round. This is where an unfocused favorite is most vulnerable and likely will go thru the motions against opponent that has been coached up for this being “a brand new season”. This can be particularly true if the underdog has already won one game in first round of larger conference event and has built a little momentum.

2) Underdogs in the right range

Another situation to look for is an underdog that has lost twice to the same opponent but byfive or less points in home and away situations in the same season. The scores tell us the difference between the two teams is not that significant, a shot here, a few missed free throws or late turnover could have been the difference. The underdog knows they are capable of beating this team; they just have to go out and prove it, which they are certainly capable of. This can be especially true if they have a lower defensive shooting percentage than their opponent on the season. Best bets are those at three points or higher.

3) Don’t get carried away with revenge

One of the most common mistakes I see and hear is sports bettors playing into multiple revenge situations. The two bits of information I just laid out do fall into revenge areas, but don’t get carried away. One such circumstance would be playing against a favorite, who defeated opponent by 15 or more points twice and in both cases the spread was single digits. In all likelihood, the oddsmakers will once again set a number below 10, making this a bad wager and here is why. If the underdog has been blown out twice and the oddsmakers is still calling for tighter game, something is amiss. The next step is to find if there is a matchup issue for the underdog, a player they can’t contain or maybe a style of defense they can’t solve. Old school handicapping would say bet the underdog seeking revenge, but today’s athlete is more confident to “work” opponent and is fearless knowing they can school foe yet again.

Another case would be a single digit underdog who lost by 25 or more with the teams meeting only one time and they were dogs by less than 10 points in previous meeting and have lost two of the prior three confrontations in past years. Basically the same scenario, the favorite cleans the clock of opponent and has history with many of the same players on the roster to do so yet again.

4) When in doubt go Under

Totals become a greater focus in college basketball this time of year, even for those that don’t play them a great deal during the regular season. Conference tournaments are about familiarity and coaches have more than enough film to understand tendencies of whom they are about to play and the pace slows considerably. This is not a revelation, as those setting the numbers are keenly aware, however they can’t deviate too far off the performance chart of how teams have played and all season, low-balling a number they might prefer, but than being slammed with a high volume of Over money, leaving them susceptible to being middled.

5) Road Warriors are safe bet

Always know the road record of matched teams in any meeting. Teams that have success on the road are less likely to give a bad performance as a favorite or underdog if they understand how to play away from home. It wasn’t a coincidence that William and Mary made the Colonial final, despite having no pedigree do to so. The Tribe entered the title game 12-6 and 11-6 ATS as a visitor. It’s worth watching Southern Mississippi who is 12-3 ATS away from Hattiesburgh and Richmond this week, who posted 10-6 and 11-4 ATS mark on the road.
One word of caution, don’t follow spread records exclusively, know the score. A team like East Carolina might look attractive at first glance at 1o-5 against the spread when out-of-town, but are they a good bet say at +8 or less when they lose on average by more than 10 points a game?

6) Numbers don’t lie

By now, most every team has played around 30 games or more and as former NFL football coach Bill Parcels said, “you are who you are”. If a team is around .500, yet has won five in a row, study the numbers to understand what has changed and look up information on the team. Maybe a change in the lineup sparked a hot streak or if this team was underachieving until recently and finally started playing up to level most suspected they should all year, that would be reason to look beyond the numbers.

Otherwise, don’t presume a team like North Carolina, who has surrendered 78 points per game away from Chapel Hill, is suddenly going to be a defensive maven and win the ACC Tournament because they decided to turn it on. Can it happen, of course, is it likely too, not really.

7) Follow coaches, just carefully

This past week, I was reading thru several different forums and at least on 20 occasions from a variety of bettors, they were all going to play Creighton to beat Bradley in Arch Madness, for first game for both squads because of the coach’s history. Dana Altman is a proven X’s and O’s coach, and has won The Valley tournament a number of times and had success in the NCAA tourney as well. One big thing to remember, he did this with better than average to very good teams. He came into matchup with Bradley, with a boring 16-14 club that was 3-12 and 4-11 ATS away from Omaha. The Blue Jays were four point favorites and were scalped by the Braves 81-62.

It makes sense to back a coach with a solid March history, but only if he has the players capable of maximizing his skills.

8) Need to know info

This is a bit self-serving, but Steve Makinen of StatFox worked his tail off in finding some of the finest information you will discover anywhere about particular conference tournaments. It’s on the site, so make sure to read it and keep it handy this week in making decisions. For me personally, I picked up two winners that I was on the fence about and dropped two games that would have been losers, because of this information.

One last case to remember. Just because a team hosts a conference tournament does not make them a lock to being champions. There have been ample times this has occurred, however they can also fail. Already this year, Mercer made the championship game on their home floor and came up short as an underdog to East Tennessee State and top seeded Coastal Carolina failed as a favorite in title tilt as a home favorite to Winthrop.

Make certain to follow these tips and you too can become a consistent betting winner during championship week.

Ridin' High on a Monday

Nailed all three plays yesterday, which was a welcome figure after Friday’s not so special day. We have a number of NBA systems to consider which are listed below on this page. The Top Trend applies to the Big Monday contest in the Big East. Good Luck

What I saw today – (11:30 MST) As per usual, NBA bettors are hitting the totals and three games in particular stand out. Orlando and Philadelphia have gone from 195.5 to 198, in spite of the Magic being 22-9 UNDER on the road this season. New York and Cleveland have also risen, up 2.5-points to 213, which makes more sense as the Knicks are 14-2 OVER in road games having lost 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last three seasons.

Oddsmakers opened Denver and Phoenix at 225, and that figure swiftly went south to 221. That seems to be the right direction as the Nuggets average total score is 210.2 points per game with no rest and the Suns is 215.

Very interesting to see Charlotte move from a one point favorite to three, seeing they have never beaten Dallas since joining the NBA and the Mavs have won seven straight.

There are just six college basketball games on the Monday docket. Favored West Virginia has moved up a point to 6.5, while Texas and Utah State have dropped one digit as favorites.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) See article listed below.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Georgetown is 4-19 ATS after one or more Under’s over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) After yesterday's winner, Steve has the Hornets with the points over the Spurs.

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Trustworthy College Basketball Teams to Bet

All of us go thru our lives trying to find people and things we can depend on. If we go out to eat, we look to go to places where the food is good or trust the judgment of our friends, for a tasty meal. When we need services for cars, air-conditioning or heat and possibly appliances that breakdown, we want to be able to trust someone to fix the problem at a fair price.

The same logic applies to sports betting. How often has anyone of us bet on a team maybe we don’t wager on a great deal, play them, lose the bet and forget about playing that team for an extended period because we’ve been burned by them? It happens to all of us making knee-jerk reactions, rightly or wrongly. We instead retreat back to situations or in this instance, teams we can trust.

With the college basketball season past the halfway point, we have enough games in the hopper to make observations about certain teams making them worthy of consideration for our wagering dollars or possibly not. We are aware what is true in sports wagering today, isn’t necessarily so in a week. Nevertheless, a collection of teams have been found to be trustworthy looking at two simple situations this season.

One such instance is teams off a spread loss. We all know you can’t win every bet and you have to play the percentages. One bad week does not a season make, but realistically, how many of us make a bet before the game thinking we are going to lose. When our wager goes south in the first 10 minutes, we have all said “I knew this was going to lose”, yet the fact remains we believed enough in the team to actually place the bet, thus we are being revisionists if nothing else.

Teams off a spread loss record (SU & ATS)
BYU 6-1, 5-1 ATS
Detroit 3-2, 5-0
Duke 6-0, 5-1
Georgetown 6-0, 4-1-1
Kansas 6-1, 4-1-1
Temple 6-1, 5-2
Valparaiso 4-2, 4-0-1
Xavier 6-1, 6-1

For the most part, the teams on this list have pedigree in terms of winning and expectations. Duke, Georgetown and Kansas are going to be somewhat overvalued by oddsmakers and when they come off a less than desirable result as a team and the perception of the head coach, they go right back to work and solve the issues. That is not to say these teams are going to make this group each year, rather, the group of individuals on this particular team is more adaptive, willing to listen to their coach, have team leaders and the talent to immediately improve and will likely get a somewhat fairer price labeled on them especially off a loss.

BYU and Xavier would also fit similar reasoning, just not being as public teams for the normal sports bettor.

Temple lost three very good players from last year’s team, however coach Fran Dunphy has elevated the Owls program thru recruiting to the point where they can reload as opposed to rebuild. Valparaiso is well coached by Homer Drew with limited talent, while Detroit is regaining status under second year coach Ray McCallum having the players buying into his system after being down for years.

The next grouping we seek is teams off a spread victory. Here the idea is to find teams that cover the number and continue to beat those setting the lines. For this contingent, we want to entrust teams that can build on momentum and have proven that they can cover the spread and one setback isn’t going to hold them back since they can climb right back in the saddle and win again and continue on.

Teams off a spread win record (SU & ATS)
Baylor 6-3, 5-2 ATS
Clemson 9-0, 6-1
College of Charleston 8-2, 6-2-1
Gonzaga 9-0, 6-2
Kansas State 9-1, 5-1
Morehead State 7-2, 5-1
Northeastern 10-1, 8-2-1
Siena 6-1, 5-0
South Florida 7-3, 7-2
Southern Miss 7-2, 5-1
St. Mary’s 11-2, 9-3
Syracuse 11-1, 8-3
Texas 8-0, 5-1
Villanova 13-0, 10-3

What’s not to like about these winners! Some of the very finest teams in the country are within this group and having seen many of them play; the ability is certainly there to continue winning ways, as long as the oddmakers don’t start adding too many points on their ledger. Whenever time is allotted to dig a little deeper, surprise teams always emerge. A Northeastern, picked to finish fifth in the Colonial Athletic Conference steps forward. Most basketball bettors are aware of Murray State from the Ohio Valley, but Morehead State led by possible OVC Player of the Rear Kenneth Faried, could be going back to NCAA Tournament after last season’s astonishing appearance.

We also find teams in this latter group that deserve their own special mention. These are true “under the radar” squads not gathering much attention, possibly a little hard to stomach, however their wagering results after a cover are tremendous in spite of sketchy SU records.

Teams off a spread win with unimpressive SU record (SU & ATS)
Drake 5-4, 6-1-1 ATS
Sacramento State 3-10, 8-3
Wyoming 2-6, 6-0

Drake is expediently acquiring notoriety and trust with 5-1 and 6-0 ATS mark in last six outings, all as underdogs. Sacramento State is being outscored by six points per game after a spread cover, which is great news since they have mostly received 10 or more points in putting together 7-14 campaign. The Hornets might be 3-14 as underdogs, but the cha-ching heard is 13-4 ATS record. Wyoming to is outscored after covering the number (3.3 PPG), nonetheless they must be being overlooked by Mountain West teams and others with 7-2 ATS mark as humble and profitable dogs.

It pays to go with things you can trust, even in college basketball betting.

Cowboys at Vikings Preview

Earlier in the season, Minnesota was making an argument they were NFC’s best team. Many football experts are now saying that title belongs to Dallas. That makes for an interesting backdrop for the teams’ Sunday’s divisional playoff.

After a 10-1 start, the Vikings (12-4, 9-6-1 ATS) closed 2-3 SU and ATS, with each loss suffered away from home. That won’t be an issue this time around, playing in the pandemonium of the Metrodome where they were 8-0 and 5-2-1 ATS, winning by 17.2 points a game.

Dallas (12-5, 10-7 ATS) has performed an exorcism of sorts, ending December and late season failures with four wins and covers in a row and winning a playoff game, ending unlucky 13-year drought. This has been especially important for coach Wade Phillips and Tony Romo, the two individuals most associated with the recent lack of success.

When the Minnesota front office stooped to modestly embarrassing levels to get the quarterback they wanted to win the division and hopefully lead them to a Super Bowl, this is what they envisioned to this point. Yes, Brett Favre’s ego could fill all 10,000 lakes in the state of Minnesota, but he has held up his part of the bargain and the Vikings as a team hope to complete the task.

The Dallas defense has been dominating holding opponents to just 54.8 yards per game rushing in their last five contests. This places the burden on the Minnesota offensive line to create holes for Adrian Peterson to nick the Cowboys defense. If Peterson has running lanes, this opens up the play-action passing game and Favre can attack Dallas both short and long.

Favre has a lot of answers to bludgeon opposing teams. Throwing deep to Sidney Rice, short and medium to TE Visanthe Shiancoe and underneath to Percy Harvin with his game-changing explosiveness. Two weeks ago the full arsenal was on display against the Giants and the Vikes are 5-1 ATS after throwing for 250 or more yards. All of this is rendered useless if DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are hanging all over No.4 in purple.

The Dallas defense has had Tim Lincecum stuff the last four weeks, pitching two shutouts and conceding a mere 31 points. Besides the perimeter pressure, the Cowboys secondary has covered receivers like TMZ on Tiger Woods and nose tackle Jay Ratliff has run roughshod on the middle of opposing offenses. Dallas has covered last five contests after permitting 90 or less yards rushing.

Minnesota has not scored less than 27 points at its indoor home, while the Cowboys have only permitted the Giants to break 21-point barrier, which seems something has to give with DiamondSportsbook.com having total of 45.5. Besides limiting scoring, Dallas has to limit Peterson, keeping his runs short and not allowing him to convert on third downs. A.P. lost a league high six fumbles; the Cowboys have to attack him and the ball, since they are 6-18 ATS in road games when they allow 22 to 28 points.

Minnesota is 30-16 ATS vs. excellent ball control teams, who keep the pigskin for 32 or more minutes a game. Their massive defensive tackles helped allow just 87 yards rushing (compared to opponents average of 113) and with Felix Jones providing home run potential out of the backfield, keeping the Cowboys ground attack in check is imperative. Antoine Winfield is not 100 percent, leaving others to corral Miles Austin, who is the big play threat the Cowboys need. This is where DE Jared Allen has to conquer Flozell Adams and make Romo make poor decisions.

The Vikings are well-rested and have more of the onus on them, being at home as 2.5-point favorites and having to fulfill preseason expectations against a hot team. Minnesota is 4-14-1 ATS after allowing less than 15 points in last game and has not covered last four contests as field goal or less favorite. Dallas isn’t the safest wager either, 5-9 ATS dressed as dogs in last 14 tries and 1-4 ATS as playoff club.

Oddsmakers actually opened this game at 48 and it has been drifting downward for apparently very good reason. The Cowboys are 11-1 UNDER on the road after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half (average score 33.7 total points) and the Vikings are 8-1 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more. (Average score 41 total points)

Answers to College Football Questions

While perusing a variety of forums, one common theme found is people have questions and can’t always get the answers they are looking for. This spawned an idea that possibly a number of people have the same or similar questions and we could answer them effectively and efficiently. Let’s not mess around and get to them.

Is it a good idea to bet on heavy college football favorites?

To properly answer this question, it must be determined what a heavy favorite is. For the sake of simplicity, we’ll say favorites of 10 or more points are the dividing line. The standard deviation for home field advantage is 3.7 to 3.8 depending on the year and encompassing all 120 FBS universities. That would mean any home team is roughly six points better than their opposition if playing at home and favored by 10 points. If a team is 10-point road favorite, they would 14 points better (14-4=10) on a neutral field.

Betting large favorites is purely a losing proposition in looking at all games that fit criteria.

ATS Record
2009 - 90-92, 49.4 percent
2008 – 97-103, 48 percent
2007 – 107-122, 46.7 percent
2006 – 115-125, 47.9 percent

This does not include the vig on each wager lost. It’s clearly not a huge losing proposition, but certainly not a good one. Playing these teams as underdog’s is not a good a great wager either (51.9 percent). It’s best to be selective and keep detailed records over a period of time to find out if you have a particular skill in uncovering what side you should be on in games with larger spreads.

Is it better to play sides or totals in college football?

Without a doubt, totals is the way to go, but only if you spend the time to study and know your numbers. Most people bet sides, which the oddsmakers are completely understand. They will always post the sides first, since this leads to immediate action and they can start making a dollar for every 11/10 wager on losers’ vs winners. After the sides have been processed, the totals will typically be released a day later. Because the focus is on the meat and potatoes product (sides), totals releases will often have money limits on bets, since sharps are like circling vultures, looking to pound bad numbers. An indication of what I mean is found in two places. Early line moves on college totals this season (three points or more by Wednesday morning) are 36-21, 63.1 percent and totals that end three or points different than starting number are jaw-dropping 97-50, 65.9 percent.

I’m an old school bettor, does betting on teams that have covered or failed to cover three in a row still hold up?

For probably more than a decade, this was a safe and convenient play for the bettor that needed a quick fix. A team that had covered the spread three consecutive times was set for downfall and was a solid Play Against team in the 54-60 percent range. Teams that had failed to cover for three consecutive games were a quality bet ranging from 55 to 63 percent. These days, not so much. (Numbers based on three continuous games, no bye weeks)

3ATS Wins
2008 24-25
2007 21-22
2006 30-27
2005 34-32

3ATS Losses
2008 21-28
2007 26-25
2006 16-33
2005 29-28

The one angle that has offered the most hope is playing against teams failing to cover a trio of oddsmakers numbers. Thus far in 2009, three-time spread winners are 12-11 ATS and three-time losers are 14-9 ATS in next encounter.

All my buddies tell me they win at parlays, but everything I read says to stay away from them. Should I be playing three-team parlays and what are my chances of winning?
The basic reason one would make a parlay wager is obvious, the payout is higher than a straight bet, and parlays offer the potential for a big payoff from a smaller wager.

Typical payoffs for winning parlays are as follows:

# of games --Payout

2--13 to 5

3--6 to 1

4 --10 to 1

5 --20 to 1

Using these numbers, making three straight bets of $110 each would pay $300 profit if all three games won. With a three team parlay, one wager of $100 and winning all three games would show a profit of $600. Sounds great but here is the sticky part.

A point spread is intended to make any contest a 50-50 proposition. The true odds of winning a three-team parlay against the point spread are 7-1. As shown above, the value derived of winning is 6-1, which any wagering analyst or professional sports bettor would explain are poor odds in one’s favor.

The other negative is you could win two of three bets in the parlay wager and lose $100, as compared to showing a profit of $90 by make three straight wagers at 11/10 and winning twice.

It’s a foregone conclusion the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game most of the time. How does anyone predict who will win the turnovers in order to make money betting?

If it were only that simple. Start with the idea at this juncture of the season, teams that commit a lot of turnovers will probably continue to do so and teams that take care of the ball likely will. The largest deviation from year to year in turnovers is fumbles. A fumble is a random event, once the ball is on the ground, it’s roughly 50-50 what team will fall on it. Much like in baseball winning one run games, fumbles are cyclical events. Some teams are better at forcing them through training and technique; however that doesn’t mean they will land on them every time. From year to year, sometimes you get the breaks and other times you don’t.

One aspect that has the potential to profit from is those teams that commit five or more turnovers and what they do against the spread in the next game. In the last three years including this season, these squads are 73-52 ATS, 58.4 percent. This makes sense as coaches emphasize the importance of ball security after a turnover prone game and the squad comes through a winner.

How do I win betting college football?

Start with the old joke, the quickest way to have $1,000 dollars betting on sports is starting with $2,000. But seriously, each person needs to find their own method. Analytical handicapping is the most full proof in my opinion, as you are dealing with facts. At this point of the season, there is ample information to study from. Knowing how teams do running and passing the ball as well as stopping both tells a compelling story. Within this area is other information to understand.

A team might average 400 yards total offense, yet the opponents they have faced might allow 395 yards per game, which leads to the conclusion this is ordinary offensive team that could struggle against very good defensive club. This creates opportunity to play against such a team.

Situational handicapping is crucial to understand. UTEP is probably the best example of 2009. The Miners have played at home as underdogs versus Houston and Tulsa right after they faced big emotional contests at home. Each team lacked the spark needed to play against hungry opponent and lost outright to UTEP. The Miners were also caught in the same dilemma. After upsetting the Cougars, they went on the road to Memphis, TN as 1.5-point favorites and were drilled by less than menacing Memphis Tigers 35-20.

A number of wise sports bettors place little or no value in trends. I would say it is not a large component to consider, but in college football there are a number of peculiar angles that win year after year and have to be in the mix of information.

Being analytical and using situational handicapping builds winners.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror

It seems a little dull, at least at this time that Florida and Alabama are clearly the two best teams in the country and not much excitement stands in their way until they play in one BSC semifinal game again this year, referred to as the SEC Championship Game brought to by Dr. Pepper. (No money changed hands for product mention; it’s just how the announcers promote the game).

On Saturday afternoon, Alabama played a version of Bear Bryant football in smothering Ole Miss 22-3 as four point favorites. The Crimson Tide was effective enough against a very good Rebels defense (the score could have easily been 40-3) and moved the ball and played outstanding defense. Quarterback Jevan Snead looks like a not ready for primetime player and coach Houston Nutt will have to do serious damage control to save this season and his signal caller.

Later, Florida’s defense so thoroughly bottle up LSU on their home turf, they looked like they could stop the recession in conceding a measly 162 yards. Offensively, coach Urban Meyer was very cautious, having Tim Tebow play, but never exposing him to a lot of big hits. If you noticed, Tebow went down in piles more readily to protect himself.

Texas dropped to No.3 in the pools, but that is no big deal since they are the top team in the other quasi-bracket as long as they keep winning.

If I were an Iowa fan, I’d be very nervous about trip to Madison this week. Granted, the Hawkeyes have had success at Camp Randall; however, they have surrendered 49 total points the last two weeks and have given 145 or more yards on the ground in half their games this season. Bettors have taken Iowa from short favorite to 2.5-point underdog quickly.

Though the line didn’t move virtually all week, Connecticut was receiving a lot of love from handicappers in forums, based on their defensive play. Pittsburgh was a seven point favorite right up until game time and had a chance early to blow them out, but a dropped pass for touchdown and an overthrow for another by QB Bob Stull left the Panthers without points. Connecticut capitalized on Pittsburgh’s mishaps and built a 21-6. At that point, the Panthers went on the prowl and ended up with a 489-305 yards advantage. After coming back to tie the score at 21-21, Pitt was moving the ball effortlessly and had first and goal at the three and gave backers hope for a well-deserved push or win. Instead, they plowed the ball three times into the middle of the line and were all too pleased to kick game winning field goal. They have a game at Rutgers this Friday and the underdog is 6-1 ATS.

UCLA held Oregon in check with the Ducks using backup quarterback Nate Costa and led 3-0 at halftime, catching 3.5-points as home underdog. Well, faster than you can University of California, Los Angeles, Oregon opened the second half with kickoff return for touchdown, a Pick Six interception and engineered a 53-yard touchdown drive off another UCLA turnover in less than four minutes, rendering Bruins betting tickets useless.

Auburn looked liked paper Tigers as Arkansas had a superior offensive game plan and was shredded by the Razorbacks for 495 yards and 28 first downs. Arkansas contained the Tigers explosive offense for over 40 minutes before they had a few big plays against them in easy 44-23 whipping.

The SEC is very top heavy this season. Mississippi State and Vanderbilt both lost in non-conference action as favorites and Kentucky gave South Carolina fits in 28-26 cover. Georgia was destroyed by Tennessee, with the much maligned Jonathan Crompton having career game with four TD passes.


Study the numbers

This has been reported here for weeks and is deserves your attention. It is imperative to find the early numbers on totals in college football and if you have access to the up to the minute figures on Saturday’s, you have to start finding these. This season in college football, totals that have moved three or moves points in either direction have been correct 79-35-1, 69.2 percent. That is money waiting to be made and the oddsmakers haven’t been able to work it fast enough either as 25-9 (73.5 percent) record proves the last two weeks. If you don’t know where to find the earliest lines, send me email doug_isllc@yahoo.com.

Did you know CFB underdogs have yet to have a losing week this season? At 20-20 ATS opening week, they are 137-109-2, 55.7 percent. The last three weeks, dogs catching 10 or more points are 41-21, 66.1 percent.

In the NFL, after a 5-11 against the spread start, home dogs have started to bark the last couple of weeks with 7-3 ATS record. This seems to happen every year of late, mostly in the first half of the season, but teams traveling three time zones are 2-6 ATS thus far.

It is being widely discussed that oddsmakers have a real issue concerning the best teams playing the worst teams. How high a number do you place on teams like St. Louis, Oakland or Tampa Bay when playing one of the better NFL teams? This is bore-out in this simple method. The last two weeks, team’s over .500 playing against teams with a record below .500 are 8-3 ATS.

Good Luck this week!

Cards look to send Milwaukee into vorago

The St. Louis Cardinals are cruising towards their fourth Central Division title and have two legitimate starting pitchers capable of winning the Cy Young this season. In addition, the Cardinals have the best player in baseball in Albert Pujols and the savvy front office move that delivered Matt Holliday to the city with the Arch was genius. With Holliday in the lineup, the Cardinals (83-57, +13.1 units) have soared, with a Major League best record of 31-11.

Today, one of St. Louis’ top hurlers, Adam Wainwright (17-7, 2.68 ERA) will look to become the major’s first 18-game winner and contribute to the sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers (66-72, -12.6 units). Before his last outing in which he allowed six runs in five innings, Wainwright had pitched 13 consecutive times conceding two runs or less. The right-hander’s value goes up even higher when you consider he is 10-1 on the road (Cardinals 12-1 in all starts) making a great choice for the postseason. Lifetime, Wainwright is 4-3 against Milwaukee, however this season is 2-1 with a 0.77 ERA while allowing 14 hits in 23 1/3 innings against the Brew Crew.

Last year’s playoff euphoria has given way to frustration in Milwaukee, with a pitching staff unable to carry the load and too many feast or famine hitters in the lineup. The latter has been especially true with the Brewers having lost six of last eight, and totaling six hits or less in five of last six outings.

Jeff Suppan (6-8, 4.97) will be the Milwaukee starter and he’s 1-0 with 2.81 ERA since coming off the disabled list and he’s 7-3 in 14 starts against his old team.

Oddsmakers like those at DiamondSportsbook.com are unimpressed with Suppan’s recent pitching, looking at the bigger picture of how both teams are playing. They have installed St. Louis as -190 money line favorites, with the total at Ov8.5. Here is another very lucrative reason to think about the Cardinals today.

Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, a cold hitting team, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a smoking starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or less over his last five starts.

Since the 2005 season began, this has been one of the most reliable baseball systems you will find anywhere at 70-5 (that is correct) 93.3 percent. This has further been backed with the underdog a perfect 12-0 this year, when it comes to losing. If you still have even an inkling of doubt, take into consideration Wainwright and the Redbirds are 10-0 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season and Suppan is 1-21 as an underdog of +175 to +250 in his career. (Team's Record)

Five Extra-Large College Football Previews

Thursday was a nice appetizer; however what college football and sports bettors are looking for is day long action. Depending on your proximity it’s time to get those last wagers in and settle in for great day. Will Notre Dame finally look like a program on the rise? Can Oklahoma State knock off opponent with real pedigree? Is this the year Illinois wins the Arch Rivalry? Is Oklahoma worthy of lofty ranking with rebuilt offense? Will Virginia Tech prove the ACC is on the rise vs. Alabama? All or part of these questions will start to be answered on Saturday.

Georgia (+5, 61) at Oklahoma State 3:30E ABC-GP

The Georgia Bulldogs seemingly are returning to what they do best under coach Mark Richt. In his eight seasons in Athens, Richt is 82-22 (51-47-1 ATS) and his best teams were usually those with less gaudy expectations. Matthew Stafford raised the SEC title beliefs and when they weren’t delivered, enough Bulldogs backers wondered why. This year it is back to basics, with workman-like Joe Cox under center. Cox and the rest of the seniors were put thru the paces by Richt in the spring, expecting them to lead by example. Last year’s offensive line failures are expected to be replaced by hungry individuals returning from injury or those seeking playing time. Sophomore A.J. Green is first team All-SEC pass catcher and will ease Cox’s transition. Defensively, Georgia has the athletes on the line to quell running game and linebacker Rennie Curran is on many All-American lists. The Bulldogs are 8-0 and 5-2-1 ATS in first away game of the year.

Oklahoma State comes off their most successful season since 2003 at 9-4. Former Cowboys gunslinger and head coach Mike Gundy (27-23, 23-21-2 ATS) has the program headed in the right direction with three consecutive winning seasons and three bowl bids. The next order of business is climbing into top three in Big 12 South. For Gundy’s squad to take this step, he must have defensive improvement. Since the 2002 season, Oklahoma State has not ranked higher than 74th in total defense. Cornerback Perrish Cox and linebacker Andre Sexton will try to lead the improvement, but it will be the D-Line that will determine fate. On offense, it’s hard to find a better trio than quarterback Zac Robinson, running back Kendall Hunter and receiver Dez Bryant. This deadly trio helped lead an offense that scored 40.8 points per game last season. Though that imposing number might be difficult to reach again, the Cowboys will score a ten-gallon hatful of points. Sportsbook.com has Okie State as five-point favorites with total of 61 and Gundy’s crew is 7-1-1 ATS as home favorites Boone Pickens Stadium.

This is return match from two years ago, when Georgia won at home 35-14. Okie State has won 13 straight home openers (5-3 ATS); however this is different type of opponent. The Cowboys are 4-18 and 6-14-2 ATS against ranked teams.

Nevada (+15, 62) at Notre Dame 3:30E NBC

Charley Weis has had a tumultuous time at Notre Dame and if things haven’t been challenging enough, this billboard popped up in South Bend this week.

-Best wishes to Charlie Weis in the fifth year of his college coaching internship. –

The billboard was paid for by a former Irish football player from the late 1960’s, which was taken down later this week. That sentiment is held by more than one alumni and this the season Weis has to prove he should be the coach in South Bend beyond this season. The offense should have no problems scoring points with triggerman Jimmy Clausen and arguably the best receiver group in the country. The defense will have much to say what direction the Fighting Irish move, being talented and athletic (a rarity), but inexperienced. Notre Dame is 7-13 ATS as home favorites in the Weis regime.

Nevada will receive rare national exposure traveling to South Bend on the first Saturday in September. The country will learn about the Pistol offense, run expertly by QB Colin Kaepernick. The 6’6 junior has a good arm and loping stride that chews up yards in the open field. His backfield partner is RB Vai Taua, who is coming off 1,521-yards season. On defense, the Wolf Pack are relentless pass rushers and will test Clausen’s composure. If they don’t rattle the junior QB, it could get ugly, as Nevada was 119th among 119 FBS schools in past defense last year and has to face this Irish contingent. Coach Chris Ault’s club is 2-7 ATS the last five years against ranked teams.

Notre Dame opened as 8-10-point favorites depending on where you looked and were quickly lifted to current status. The Wolf Pack is 16-25 ATS as dogs of 10 or more points.

Notre Dame can’t overlook Nevada who can score. This is important year for coach Weis or its back to the NFL. Notre Dame just 3-13 ATS against non-BCS schools at home.

Missouri (+6.5, 61) vs Illinois 3:40E ESPN

A new era dawns of Missouri football, starting without Chase Daniel. He wasn’t the only one to depart as high draft picks Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman will being playing on Sunday’s instead. This could mean head man Gary Pinkel (59-41, 50-43-2 ATS) relies on the running game more, at least to start the season. Blaine Gabbert is the starter at quarterback and he will he handing off tailback Derrick Washington, until he feels more comfortable in the pocket. The Tigers lost top receivers, but Jared Perry and Danario Alexander are both seniors and they have contributed plenty and have deep speed. The defensive line’s two deep lacks experience and Jaron Baston is only returning starter. All-Big 12 linebacker Sam Weatherspoon is a stud and will have to be leader. Only one starter is back in defensive backfield, which might not be a big deal after finishing 117th in pass defense. The Tigers have shown some teeth with 8-3 ATS record in first game away from Columbia.

When Ron Zook was hired at Illinois, his recruiting skills were not questioned, his coaching ability was. Many thought Zook had turned a corner after taking Illinois to Rose Bowl two years ago; however last year’s 5-7 campaign opened up Pandora ’s Box again for Zook. That makes this a critical season for Zook, not from a job standpoint, rather if he can take the Illini program to similar status of Wisconsin year-in year-out in the Big Ten. Having Juice Williams should help, if he cuts down interceptions and every down running back emerges to make Williams run less. Arreloius Benn should have true bust-out year and Michael Hoomananwanui needs to have 40+ receptions at tight end. Talented individuals are on defense, with the question being can they be molded in a cohesive unit. The Fighting Illini haven’t shown much fight with 3-9 ATS record the last three years as single digit favorites.

Hard to call Game 1 is critical; nonetheless it could set the tone for both schools. Missouri has won four in a row in the Arch Rivalry and is 8-1 ATS in last nine. Illinois has rugged opening slate and Missouri wants to get program situated early.

BYU (+21.5, 66) vs Oklahoma 7:00E ESPN

BYU is coming off 10-3 endeavor and has its sights set on even greater glory in 2009. The Cougars over the years have not been afraid to take on some of the best programs in the country and they will get a look at one of the finest in Oklahoma. Coach Bronco Mendenhall (38-13, 25-22-1 ATS) has signal caller Max Hall back for senior season. Hall will have new receivers to chuck the pigskin to, making tight end Dennis Pitta especially important as bailout pass catcher. The offensive line needs four new starters, yet the Cougars usually find a way to put together a group of road-graters that can pass protect. The Cougars never mounted a pass rush in 2008 and nothing seems to have changed that much. The corners look weak, which is not what you need against a Heisman Trophy quarterback like Sam Bradford to start you new season. BYU is abominable 4-17 ATS in first game away from home.

Bradford stood behind arguably the best offensive in the college game last year and will have four different helmets to look at this fall. The junior has a quick trigger and Ryan Broyles and Jermaine Gresham will be favorite targets in no-huddle attack. Running backs DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown will find lanes to scoot thru. While the offense doesn’t figure to be as prolific scoring 51.1 points per game, the nine returning starters on defense will play more of a role. Though it sounds ridiculous, the Sooners have six players in defensive line with pro potential, led by Gerald McCoy. Ryan Reynolds and Travis Lewis anchor a swift linebacker core. Oklahoma may disappoint in the biggest games, but don’t think for moment Bob Stoops isn’t elite coach. Boomer Sooner is 8-2 and 7-2-1 ATS in first matchup away from Norman.

After bumbling a bit, the Sooners are 11-1 and 10-1 ATS in non-conference regular season contests the last three years. With BYU having to replace four O-linemen against Sooners defense, the Cougs could be tough spot, already 0-5 ATS versus neutral site ranked teams.

Alabama (-6, 38) vs Virginia Tech 8:00E ABC

Alabama played in SEC title game and made BCS bowl game, are greater things on the horizon for Nick Saban’s (19-8, 12-13-1 ATS) third year in Tuscaloosa? It depends and the answer won’t really be known until later in the season. Where the tricky part is the offense, junior Greg McElroy has waited his turn and is now the big man on campus for the Crimson Tide. McElroy has professed to be ready and sophomore sensation Julio Jones will be one of his favorite targets to pass to. The offensive line has to be reworked with three outstanding starters gone and running back Glen Coffee leaving early. On defense, zero question marks with nine starters back and improving depth in support. All-American nose tackle Terrance “Mount” Cody is poised for colossal campaign and is leaner and reportedly meaner than ever. Rolando McClain is a headache at linebacker and the secondary has aggressive ball-hawks. The Tide have won last five of six as favorites.

Does it seem possible that Virginia Tech was ever bad under coach Frank Beamer? You have to go back to 1992 to find the last losing season in Blacksburg. The Hokies have won 10 or more games eight times in the last decade including five in a row (38-24-1 ATS). With 14 starters back in the fold, this opening game could determine if Virginia Tech is national contender or one of the best in the ACC. Junior Tyrod Taylor in the undisputed leader of the offense. He’s worked diligently to become better passer and expects to see the results. With Darren Evans out with ACL tear an unproven yet versatile running core will have to step up, running behind an offensive that came into its own late last season. Jason Worilds might be just 6’2 240 pound defensive end; however he’s upfield before the tackle is even out of his stance pressuring the quarterback, leading another stern Hokies defense. The Hokies are 12-4 ATS in first roadie of the season.

Oddsmakers have made their case about this matchup. Bama opened as a six-point choice despite a new quarterback and just four returning offensive starters. That speaks volumes about what they think about the difference between SEC and ACC. This is a special opening matchup and Virginia Tech is 17-6 ATS in September road encounters. The Tide is 16-1 SU in opening tilts since 1992, but just 5-10 ATS during that time.

Wagering on the Numbers Game

In order to win at sports betting, you have to be able to identity situations quickly. Most people assume every oddsmaker knows every aspect of a certain game, which talking with professional sports bettors just isn’t true. Most regular bettors have no idea the wealth of information available to them and this is where we can come in and help also.

It’s nearly impossible to make sound judgments about the NFL Preseason football; however that doesn’t take away from the enjoyment of considering the possibilities. After two weeks, favorites are 23-10 SU and 17-14-2 against the spread. Lines moves on side action of 1.5 or more points towards a particular team are 6-3 ATS.

The oddmakers have been right on the nose breaking down totals, with the OVER 17-16. What is interesting to note is totals that settled at 34.5 points or higher are 13-8 UNDER thus far. That means totals of 34 or fewer points are outstanding 9-3 OVER. Totals moves of two points or more in either direction are putrid 2-8 following the number.

Annually in the preseason, a very solid wager is to Play On teams that have lost by 10 or more points. It doesn’t win all the time, but is 5-1 SU and ATS to start this year. Coaches ride the players hard after such a loss, even in August. Because they have more players in camp, the injury factor is less an issue to key players as compared to the regular season and they do more hitting during intense practices. For week 3 consider - Tennessee, Detroit, Carolina, Houston, Buffalo, Arizona and Denver as all possible plays off a significant loss.

The baseball pennant races are really heating up and this is a good time to think about what teams have to do the rest of the way and are they good wagers the rest of the season?

The Boston Red Sox trail the New York Yankees by six games in the loss column. (I prefer to use this since all teams are scheduled to play 162 games) If the Yankees continue to play about the same pace, they should win 101 games this season. That would mean the Red Sox would have to finish the season 30-8 just to tie their hated rival, which seems unlikely. Boston will be favored in every home game the rest of the year unless maybe a bad pitching matchup against Roy Halladay of Toronto or against the Los Angeles Angels. They are probably better served to get the team healthy and playing their best baseball capturing the wild card.

Detroit has 21 of remaining 36 games at home, where they are spectacular 40-20 (+12.4 units). Their most challenging games will be home and home with Tampa Bay. Otherwise, it’s up to the Tigers to take care of business, playing their two closest competitors Chicago and Minnesota, 13 times in their last 16 games, including the last seven at Comerica Park. It’s Detroit’s division to lose.

The Los Angeles Angels might have the second best record in baseball, yet are not a sure thing to win the division, five games ahead of Texas. The Angels should benefit playing 21 of last 38 at the Big A in Anaheim, however the pitching has to have manager Mike Scioscia popping Tums like most playing chewing sunflowers seeds. The Halos have baseball’s best offense and they need to, since only Kansas City, Cleveland, Baltimore and Washington allow more runs per game. The Angels have mid-September road trip to Boston and Texas and return home to face the Yankees and four more games with the Rangers, whom they are 3-9 against.

Do the Chicago Cubs have any chance trailing the St. Louis by seven in the loss column? It’s remote, but the window isn’t completely closed. These NL Central rivals will meet one last time for three game series on September 18. If the Cardinals maintain the same pace they are at, they should win 12 of next 21. (As of Tuesday night) That would mean the Cubs would have to win 17 of 23 to be within three games when the series starts. Though it sounds nearly impossible, the North Siders play teams worse than themselves like Washington, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and the Mets and comparable teams like Houston, Milwaukee and the White Sox (make-up game). The task is made further difficult having only two open dates remaining compared to the Cardinals five.

Nothing to report on the Philadelphia Phillies unless they turn into the New York Mets of the past few seasons and totally collapse.

The Colorado Rockies are in playoff position and could still win the NL West, playing host 21 of last 36 ballgames at Coors Field. They are playing the front-running Dodgers right now and have six games remaining at San Francisco. They would love to have three meaningful games at Dodger Stadium the last weekend of the regular season for the division crown.

Los Angeles’ immediate goal is to build lead over Colorado to no less than four games when they leave town Thursday. If they would manage to do so, they quite literally could be favored in almost every game the rest of the year. The only teams they will face with winning records are San Francisco (home and home series) and the final three encounters versus the Rockies.

San Francisco still has a shot at the wild card, but they will have to win five of six or more at AT&T Park against the Rockies to give themselves a chance. The task might be too overwhelming, still having to take on the Dodgers six times, at Philadelphia for three and hosting the Cubs four times.

Monday Night Football Preview

As far as NFL preseason games go, this Monday night contest has a number of story lines to follow. The New York Jets have a new head coach in Rex Ryan and it is taking all of one game to return to Baltimore, where he spent the last 10 years, the last four as defensive coordinator. While Ryan will acquaint himself with friends on the Ravens sidelines and others in the stands, he will have to soon make his first really challenging decision of who will the Flyboys starting quarterback.

In many ways it’s a no-lose decision, since top draft choice Mark Sanchez will be under center as the starting quarterback in New York eventually. Sanchez is battling with holdover Kellen Clemens and the former USC Trojan will take the field first when the Jets have the ball on Monday.

New York lost at home to St. Louis 23-20 as four-point favorites and arrives in Baltimore in a favorable spot. The Jets are three-point underdogs at DiamondSportsbook.com and underdogs (or Pick) off an upset loss as a favorite are 29-9 ATS this week of the preseason.

Sanchez, Clemens and Erik Anige will go against what has been one the best defenses of this decade in the Ravens. Linebacker Ray Lewis may no longer have the speed and quickness of a few seasons ago, yet he spearheads a fearsome bunch that enjoys hitting whatever moves in opposing uniforms. The defense befuddled Washington last week, holding them to 196 total points and kept them from registering any points.

Offensively, second year signal caller Joe Flacco was efficient 9-of-15 for 103 yards in two series and will see greater action this week. Troy Smith will follow Flacco after throwing for 200 yards last week, part of the 500 yards the Ravens totaled. With John Beck out with shoulder injury, Baltimore signed Cleo Lemon this week, since he is familiar with offensive coordinator Cam Cameron's system, having played in Miami when Cameron was there. With last week’s shutout win, Baltimore is 4-5 ATS at home the last five years in the preseason.

Oddsmakers have set the total at 32.5 and which would appear to favor New York who is 11-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 35 or less. The low figure could also attract the attention of totals players, with the Ravens 22-10 UNDER as a favorite and 11-2 UNDER as a home favorite of three points or less.

Kickoff is set for 8 Eastern on ESPN with New York 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight preseason games as the visitor.

Wagering on the NFL is about uncovering edges

For sports bettors, there is no greater challenge than trying to beat the oddsmakers in wagering on professional football. This on going battle is reminiscent of golf, though you might have great days and sometimes outstanding years, you never really beat the game, it’s more of a survival. The sharpest minds are always on the prowl seeking ways to profit against the untamed beast, knowing full well what works today could be as meaningless as Week 1 stats at the end of the season.

This process is like being an archeologist, you keep digging, and often, no matter how pointless it seems, you’ll come across something when you least expect it, something that pays dividends immediately and down the road.

I ended up spending a great deal of time searching for different winning information and like the previously mentioned archeologist, came up empty more than once, despite what were believed to be solid fundamental principles, applying to making money betting the NFL.

The methodology was to pick a category and review the top and bottom aspects of each one. Ideally, hitting the bomb would be fantastic, however, realistically, moving the chains would work just fine, as long as it scored in the end.

One element that seemed to make sense was time of possession. If a team has the ball and scores enough points within the given time they have the ball, they place added pressure on the opposing team to match scores. Many analysts and play-by-play announcers are quick to point out T.O.P. is useless in a given game, when say turnovers or quick strikes are involved in their respective contest they are broadcasting. While this certainly happens, too often this is taken as factual material, with little substance behind it other than personal opinion for the telecast they are covering.

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The Texas Rangers are what?

One of the more unusual aspects of the 2009 baseball season has been the play of the Texas Rangers and not for the typical reasons many would consider. The Rangers are still within striking distance of the Los Angeles Angels for the lead in the AL West and are running neck and neck with Boston for the wild card after sweeping them at home this past weekend. What makes this Texas team absolutely crazy is how they have evolved against the oddsmakers totals.

After years of being a high scoring club that more resembled a top level slow-pitch softball team the way they could score runs, these Rangers are fairly pedestrian 12th in Major League Baseball at 4.8 runs per game.

The shocker is the pitching. Having played seven more home games than road games to date this season, Texas is sixth in runs allowed at (that is SIXTH, like in 7-1= 6) 4.3 runs per game. While most Rangers fans only dreamed of ever seeing competent big league pitching, manager Ron Washington actually has them performing it, which is about as likely as daytime high of 70 with low humidity in the middle of August in Dallas-Fort Worth area.

With a slightly above average offense and a pitching staff taking this team places it has never seen, Texas has confounded oddmakers and bettors alike. Texas is the top Under team in baseball by a large margin at 73-39-4. If you analyzed the standings of the top Under teams in baseball like the regular baseball standings, the Rangers would have a lead similar to the Yankees, 7.5 games clear of the second place Chicago White Sox, who is 67-48-3 Under this season.

What has accounted for this change in Texas baseball? Rest assured the skipper Washington wished he had more offense, it just hasn’t happened. The Rangers Ballpark at Arlington is still the same; short fences in the power alleys will still surrender an ample amount of home runs, with the Rangers second in baseball to the Yankees. However, when you look at the hitting numbers, they don’t add up like prior years. Michael Young is still Michael Young, hitting well over .300, but he’s the only starter even close. Second baseman Ian Kinsler and Hank Blalock are closer to the Mendoza-line (.200 batting average) than to batting .300. Josh Hamilton’s off-season indiscretions aside, he’s a mere shell of the player who was a true All-Star in 2008, currently with eight homers and 40 runs batted in.

In 2009, this Rangers club is built around pitching (obviously that rings of an oxymoron) and its new philosophy. President Nolan Ryan didn’t want any more coddling of pitchers; he wants them to be a man like he was. Pitch counts are for wusses, throw strikes and have fielders take care of the rest.

Consider these un-Rangers’ like numbers. In the American League, Texas is 3rd in ERA and WHIP, and 5th in batting average allowed and on-base percentage allowed. Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson lead a bullpen that has converted 35 of 44 save attempts, among the best in baseball. Plus, collectively, the bullpen has a rare better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Though it takes getting used, at almost three-quarters of the way thru the season, Texas is Under team and it’s not a fluke. This is supported by 39-19-3 Under record at home, 29-11-2 Under record versus left-hand starters and 37-19-2 Under mark as a favorite.

Our sitting president talked a year ago about change, the Texas Rangers represent one of the biggest changes in baseball in 2009, being a decided Under team.

Nats streak in jeopardy facing gruesome system

Breakup the Nationals! That’s what New York, San Diego and Milwaukee are thinking. The Mets and Padres lost series to Washington last week on the road and Milwaukee could become their third straight victim with a victory either tonight or tomorrow. The Nationals have won four in a row and six of eight, picking up seven units of profit for the shrewd sports bettor.

The Nationals are ninth in runs scored in the National League at 4.4 per game and are hotter than scalding water from the plate, averaging 9.5 runs during this winning streak, batting .342 as a team. Washington’s pitching staff has many faults and several ghastly numbers, however, they have held six of last eight opponents to four or less runs.

Washington, honestly (those two words are an oxymoron) should have a better record than 32-68 (-30.3 units), but a group of young starters are going to make mistakes as part of the growing process. Where things really fall apart is when the bullpen has gotten involved.

These non-starters have themselves accounted for 30 losses, while gaining only 11 victories. They have collective ERA of 5.24, having allowed 325 base hits in just over 309 innings, plus walking 173 more batters. Washington is the only team in the Major Leagues with a save percentage below .500, at 44.1 percent, blowing 19 saves in 34 attempts.

This month has been a full-blown disaster for Milwaukee, with seven wins in 23 games, which has seen them drift downwardly to fourth place in the NL Central, after starting July in first place. Brewers’ batters for the most part are holding up their end of the bargain, totaling 10 or more hits in 13 contests this month, but the pitching staff deserves a Dick Enberg “Oh my”.

Milwaukee has lost seven of last nine contests and no wonder, since the pitching staff has ERA of almost seven (6.81), with starting pitchers slightly worse, surrendering 6.89 earned runs and 10 home runs during this time span.

Tonight’s starter Manny Parra, has made a season long contribution to Milwaukee’s below .500 mark (49-51, -6.5 units) with 4-8 record. Parra has ERA of 6.42 and the Brew Crew has won exactly 25 percent of the left-hander’s starts (4-12) in 2009.

Many sports bettors don’t have the cold detachment of the oddsmakers to create a line objectively, based on a body of work, not just recent trends. This is why DiamondSportsbook.com for example has Milwaukee as -195 money line favorites, despite many reasons not to play the Brewers. Here is one outstanding reason to back the Brewers tonight.

Play Against road teams with average offensive, scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against a faulty NL starting pitcher with ERA of 5.70 or higher, with a bad bullpen, whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season.

How this system has proven to work is the road club will return to typical numbers they produce. The opposing teams starting pitcher could well have better outing against an ordinary offensive club and if the game is close in the later innings, the road team’s bullpen will probably find a way to lose the game.

Dating back to when Madeleine Albright became first female Secretary of State of the United States (1997), this system is 34-8, 81 percent. In fact, this system has been especially lethal in the last five years with 20-3 record, with average winning margin of almost two runs.

Oddmakers allowing Miami Dolphins to play respect card

The five year win pattern of the Miami Dolphins resembles most bettors wagering accounts over the same period. Starting in 2004, four wins, nine wins (2005), six wins (2006), one win (2007), followed up with last year’s miraculous turnaround that led to division crown and 11 conquests. The oddsmakers were so unimpressed with last year’s performance; they have established them as Un7.5 total wins for 2009 campaign.

You can’t blame the messenger for setting the numbers, like those at Bookmaker.com; all they can do is look at the facts and make a highly educated prediction. And while 50 percent of the football public outside of Dade County still thinks the Miami’s head coach’s name is Tony Soprano, from the TV show, the real coach, Tony Sparano, can utilize the “lack of respect card”, placing it in his back pocket this August as motivational tool. They question is, are the oddmakers wrong?

A team coming off a 15-loss season should be happy to beat almost anyone to get back on track. Last year’s complete turnaround was surrounded by many factors. The first was the hiring of Bill Parcells, who set a different tone in South Beach; he wanted football players committed to winning, not just earning a living. The hiring of Sparano was the right fit, as his contagious enthusiasm and positive belief system filtered throughout the locker room, which was less antagonistic to Parcells often acidic tongue. Lastly, Chad Pennington had been discarded by the Jets and had a chip on his shoulder the length of Ocean Drive.

After losing four of first six contests, Miami started to sizzle like a Caribbean nightclub. The Dolphins won nine of last 10 regular season games (5-5 ATS), including last five, of which four were on the road. A closer look reveals mostly beatable teams and Miami did a splendid job in defeating those clubs. In there last 10 contests, only New England and the Jets had winning records at the end of the season. With plenty of hype surrounding a rebuilt Patriots team, the Fins were squashed at home 48-28 as two-point underdogs. Miami won the division beating Jets team in free fall 24-17, in the last game of the regular season. Certainly noteworthy accomplishment given they manufactured one win the previous year; however they were the better team at that point, as customary +3 points on the road proved.

This year’s schedule looks like a massive upgrade, starting with trading the NFC West for the much better NFC South. Only Tampa Bay looks to be worse than .500 team in this group. In the AFC, the West contingent of four teams has been exchanged for arguably the best division in football, the AFC South. This switch of divisions alone could account for two or three losses, even if Miami plays at the same level as last season.

New England is presumed to be better with Tom Brady back in control and Buffalo and the Jets are thought to be similar, with the Bills a touch better and the Flyboys a little worse.

Miami would not seem to have the same luxury of slow start, followed by big finish. The first three games are at Atlanta, home to Indianapolis on Monday night, followed by a short week cross-country journey to San Diego. The final six encounters read this way in exact order - @ Buffalo, New England, @ Jacksonville, @ Tennessee, Houston and Pittsburgh. Depending on various factors, the Dolphins might only be favored twice in last six tilts.

Pick up any fantasy football magazine and you will have a difficult time finding Chad Pennington in the upper half of quarterback ratings. True, winning and fantasy football are completely different, however does anyone really expect Pennington to improve? Since becoming a starter in the Big Apple in 2002, Pennington has averaged 15 starts in the even-numbered years, in the three odd-numbered years, less than seven.

Ronnie Brown should have greater offensive impact as running back and the offensive line should be even more cohesive with a year under their belts. The wide receivers are average, as Ted Ginn Jr. has shown little improvement as route runner, though Pennington and tight end Anthony Fasano clicked.

The Fins defense improved greatly last season to 15th in total defense and ninth in points allowed. With a schedule of much better offenses, linebacker Joey Porter will have to lead the younger players by example. Porter was revitalized in playing 3-4 defense again and Jason Ferguson has to be the anchor at nose tackle. The secondary allowed yards (227.5, ranked 25th), but yanked 18 interceptions out of the air.

Turnover margin is the single biggest influence on any team and Miami was No.1 last year at +17. It is infrequently teams come anywhere close to replicating high turnover figures the next season. Recent examples include the unbeaten Patriots going from +16 to +1, as record fell from 16-0 to 11-5. In 2006, Baltimore had 13-3 record and +15 in turnover margin. The following season, racked with injuries, a complete reversal to -17 and 5-11 campaign. Seattle was a 10-6 division champion in 2007, with +10 on turnovers, last season, -7 and dismal 4-12 season.

Just after 2010 arrives, we’ll have clear idea how right or wrong the oddsmakers were on Miami, here is one vote for the Under, with 7-9 season for disappointed Dolphins fans.

NFL quarterback controversy’s

Competition is healthy right? When someone has to compete, they tend to extend more effort and become better at what they do. But what happens when say two mediocre people go head to head? Does it really benefit a company or organization having to pick the best of an average pairing? And what about the sports bettor, he’s left to analyze the merits of mediocrity.

In the NFL, this happens a lot. The most telling position is under center with the quarterback. In studying the list of 32 NFL teams, it is good business to find the quarterback situations that are up for grabs and give strong consideration to playing Under on futures wagers for team totals.

Why you ask, it allows the old professional football proverb – If you have more than one quarterback, you have none.

The Oakland Raiders drafted JaMarcus Russell No.1 two years ago and to call his progress S L O W would be doing injustice to the word itself. Talent-wise the former LSU quarterback can make all the throws, however work habits, dedication, decision-making and staying in shape were all questions marks when he was drafted and remain today. The Oakland camp is so unsure if he is the right person for the job, they’ve brought in 39-year old Jeff Garcia.

Reports have the Raiders organization thinking Russell can learn from Garcia’s work ethic and understand what it takes to play in this league. One problem, Garcia is a curmudgeon, he has no interest in developing Russell, he wants to be the starting quarterback. If Garcia believes he has earned the job in camp (which he always does) and if coach Tom Cable (with Al Davis calling every 10 seconds) decides Russell is his guy to start the season, Garcia’s past suggests a malcontent who isn’t afraid to speak his mind. This sets up combustible situation for a franchise who makes the Kardashian’s seem normal. Sportsbook.com has Da Raaaiders at 5.5 for season wins, but if Russell fails or Garcia starts seeing the ghosts of linemen chasing him like last season, they will fall short of that total in 2009.

New Tampa Bay head coach Raheem Morris was a big fan Josh Freeman at Kansas State and picked him in first round as long term quarterback solution. While most experts considered Freeman a project, he quickly moved up in the eyes of those in the Buccaneers organization with sharp workouts in mini-camps and OTA’s. Freeman was helped significantly competing with Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich.

Morris can’t be milquetoast in making a decision. His options are more limited than he believes and nobody thinks Freeman is as prepared as Matt Ryan for quarterback duty to start the season. The smart thing to do is start McCown and let Freeman learn and make change at midseason if necessary, with veteran Leftwich in the bullpen. Oddsmakers have pegged the Bucs for 6.5 wins after two nine win campaigns, which makes good sense.

Sweeping changes were made in Cleveland, nevertheless, sports talk radio and Browns blogs are still in debate who should be starting quarterback, Derrick Anderson or Brady Quinn. New head man Eric Mangini’s first true decision as coach will be picking one of the two. No matter who he chooses, a large bucketful of support will be for the player that lost, especially if the winner fails to live up to expectations.

The real issue here is ability. Quinn is local guy, but does not possess strong arm and accuracy isn’t his strong point. He can pick up first downs with his legs and likes to throw to tight end in tough spots. His true value is incomplete due to lack of playing and injury. Anderson is neither as good as he played in 2007 nor as awful as he looked last season. He’s like a hot fudge sundae, hot and cold, and definitely turnover-prone. Mangini needs to take a stand with one and live with it, especially in first season as coach and worry about the future later. Bettors have to do the same with Browns listed at 6.5 wins for 2009.

Of course the craziest quarterback controversy isn’t even one and might not ever be one, yet has the juiciest story. Brett Favre will be a Minnesota Viking if his arm is sound and Sage Rosenfels will wonder how he was blindsided. Even more so than Garcia, Favre isn’t putting on a purple and white uniform to wear a headset. He signs; he expects to start, even if he plays the “I just want a chance to compete” card. Except for 2007, Favre has seen a noticeable deterioration in his skill to throw the medium-deep pass (unless it’s a slant) or long pass over the last four years.

Rosenfels sagged as starter for Houston last season, being too much a risk-taker when not needed. Tarvais Jackson has had his chances and fumbled his opportunities to take the Vikings-mantle by the horns and will have to move on to have real shot at starting again. Though Minnesota fans are mildly excited about Favre coming after seeing him beat their team all these years, be careful for what you wish with a quarterback who turns 40 in October. Minnesota total of nine wins could go south if No. 4 fails to impress.

Several other teams don’t have specific issues at the field general position; however they do not have answers necessarily.

Is Trent Edwards really what Buffalo needs at quarterback? He played the role of Indian-giver in 2008. He made the coaches very comfortable in the first half of the season making him the starter and gave it all back with a repulsive second half. Terrell Owens can help, if Edwards can hit the target. Are the Bills capable of beating 7.5 wins set by oddsmakers, after a trio of seven win seasons?

Also in the AFC East, the Jets have to decide on Kellen Clemens, who has never really impressed or draft pick Mark Sanchez to beat a spot of seven wins.

Tennessee has total of nine W’s set on them. Can Kerry Collins continue to be a winner and if not, is Vince Young ready to resume career and become whom the Titans originally believed they had.

Matt Hasselbeck is the starter in Seattle and he’s become increasingly more injury-prone with advancing age. Will new coach Jim Mora have quick hook if Hasselbeck flounders and go with more athletic Seneca Wallace as Seahawks look to reclaim NFC West?

Shaun Hill has 7-3 record as San Francisco starter the last two years, which he earned in part because he had a better feel for Mike Martz offense. That offense has been scrapped with his departure. Hill is tough, with strong pocket presence and a good decision-maker. Word out of the Bay Area is he has teammates respect, but the 2005 top selection Alex Smith is hell-bent on proving he’s not a bust. Smith took a huge pay cut to stay with Niners (obviously nobody called) and believes his mended wing and more traditional offense is better suited to have him be leader of 49ers and pass seven win total placed on them.

With this much acrimony floating around this many different NFL teams, it is hard to make a case any of the teams are worthy of an Over play before the season starts.