The Odds of Winning the BCS Championship

With just four weeks left in the college football regular season, it’s time to sit down and conclude who has the best chance to win the BCS trophy and more importantly for college football bettors, who is the best team to wager on. The question has come my way, why make a wager now on who could be national champions. Let me think, how many of you threw away futures tickets on say Georgia, Ohio State, LSU, Missouri and (clearing throat for comedic affect) Clemson.

Oh I’m sure some of you took long shots on Alabama or Texas before the season started, but what the heck, it’s much easier to win when the field is narrowed down. For all you that took Clemson and play 10-team parlays on a regular basis, the true idea behind sports betting is to win, not hope you win.

Penn State went from the odds-on favorite last week to essentially out of the picture with upset loss to Iowa. Check these teams out.

Florida Gators (9-5 odds)

Urban Meyer’s team is situated as the odds on favorite to be BCS champions again. They will be favored against South Carolina at home and have no reason to look ahead playing The Citadel next week (can anyone explain why). The usual end of the season battle with Florida State won’t be quite as easy as the last few years; however Tim Tebow should find a way to beat the Seminoles. The matchup with Alabama will be very interesting. The Crimson Tide has the athletic skills to play with Florida and is more physical. Meyer won’t have a coaching edge in this meeting, in fact might have somebody his superior. Alabama is more disciplined, especially in the big games. If the Gators survive, they would be a favorite against any other championship contender except USC. Consider the lower odds a fair bet.


Alabama Crimson Tide (5-2 odds)

The Crimson Tide has one the most important intangibles many recent champions have had. Since 2000, three different coaches have won a national championship in their second season coaching at that university. This means they walked into a good situation with talented players who needed direction and added more by their recruiting efforts. In fact, every coach except Mack Brown has won the title within the first four years with the school in the last eight years, which includes Nick Saban at LSU. Today, coaches have to get talented players on the field right away, to maximize their time, as the cream of the crop heads to the NFL draft board once eligible. Though Mississippi State and Auburn have been tussles in the past, playing at home should make winning a foregone conclusion for Bama. To beat Florida in SEC title game, Alabama will have to have same steely resolve they have had in every big game. They have the ability to make Florida one-dimensional and can control the clock. If they move past them, the Tide is three-point favorite or more against anybody not named USC.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-1 odds)

Texas Tech is in control of their own destiny ranked number two in the BCS standings after beating Texas and Oklahoma State in back to back games. The Red Raiders offense has proven to be all but unstoppable as quarterback Graham Harrell has the inside trck on standing at the podium at the New York Downtown Athletic Club in mid-December. The Texas Tech offense places so much pressure on opposing defenses figuring out best way to stop them. This ways heavy on the minds of the other team’s offense once the Red Raiders score, as they feel compelled to match scores and press, not playing with fluidity they normally would. Skeptics have to be impressed with what Mike Leach’s club has accomplished; however want to see them play the same way on the road, which they do on Nov. 22 at Oklahoma. If they survive the trip to Norman, they have Baylor at home, followed by Big 12 championship, in which they would be a double digit favorite. With the remaining contenders, Texas Tech would be an underdog against any SEC team or USC, though the number keeps shrinking with each victory.

Oklahoma Sooners (9-2 odds)

This has the appearance of a poor wager at this time, with Oklahoma needing a lot of help. Oklahoma can steer its path to a degree, still being able to play Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. If they win out and all the other Big 12 South contenders remain victorious, watch out. According to Big 12 rules, the first four tiebreakers will not be enough to declare a winner. The fifth rule becomes the most important; the team with the highest BCS ranking is declared the winner. Think about that for a second. (That’s a completely different article) Like all the teams in contention in the Big 12 South, the Sooners would be a double digit favorite against whoever comes out of the North Division.

If they managed to get all the way to the title game, Bob Stoops team would be an underdog to whoever came out of the SEC, in large part to a faulty defense that has given up a bundle of points against the better offenses in the Big 12.

USC Trojans (5-1 odds)

Head coach Pete Carroll is frustrated with the BCS and on point he is correct. He knows he very likely has one the best teams in college football that was asleep for a half at Oregon State and groggy for another 15 minutes in various parts. A playoff would settle any doubts, however that won’t happen this year or in the foreseeable future with too much money coming to easily. USC needs Florida State to beat Florida, the Gators to defeat Alabama, the Big 12 North champion to beat what would be a one or two loss team out of the Big South. If all that happened and the Trojans win out, they would meet somebody for the national championship game and would be at least a field goal if not more favorite.

Oddsmakers love USC and would make them a favorite against any team in the country, except maybe the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants.

Texas Longhorns (4-1 odds)

Like the rest of the teams, Texas needs help. Winning out the regular season won’t be problem with Kansas and Texas A&M, needing Texas Tech to slip up twice is. The loss at Lubbock has been discussed way out of context in the state of Texas considering whom the Horns had to play. Complaints of the Longhorns not being ready to play were foolish, having to play that many strong teams consecutively. Only Notre Dame in 1943 has been able to defeat a top-12 squad four weeks in a row. The Longhorns remain in the hunt, but have lost control of their destiny.

Utah (100-1 field bet) and Boise State (200-1)

The odds of either of these teams making it to the BCS championship are somewhat better than the Conference USA champion earning a BCS at-large berth, but not a lot better.

Looking in Rearview Mirror Betting College Football

One of the great things about being a college football sports bettor, you can live in the present and look towards the future. This week the BCS talk is running rampant, borderline Michael Douglas in “Falling Down”, with too many angry types speculating about everything that is wrong with the BCS system. It is far from a perfect system, but the drama is incredible.

Think about how watered-down the Texas Tech at Oklahoma upcoming game would be if both teams already new they were in an eight-team postseason. The Penn State loss at Iowa, no problem guys, shake it off, beat Michigan State and we’re still playing for the national championship. This is do-or-die drama, especially late in the season; it could hardly be more fun.

Those of us who wager on college football can join in on these borderline unhealthy discussions with more knowledge than your average fan, since we cover the entire scope of college football. We might have our favorite teams or know more about a certain conference depending on our proximity; however we are much more informed, even as our personal opinions differ. Just like the coach preaches, we play’em one week at a time and let somebody else worry about what might happen.

Texas Tech was extremely impressive against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys needed two more players on defense to either create a pass rush to stop quarterback Graham Harrell or more help in the secondary. After awhile it was like watching Gary Busey on Celebrity Rehab, you just felt sorry for Okie State. What is most impressive is the play the Red Raiders are getting on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Harrell could have worn a dress suit and gone out to eat after the game, with nary a wrinkle with the protection he received. Though the defense is unheralded, they make enough of a mess to spoil the other team’s offensive flow. In a league where the offense overflows more than Pamela Anderson, the best way to measure the Texas Tech defense is points allowed in their last three games.

Kansas averages 34.5 PPG – scored 21 vs Texas Tech
Texas averages 44.3 PPG – scored 33 vs Texas Tech
Oklahoma State averages 42.8 PPG – scored 20 vs. Texas Tech

The Red Raiders are the first team since Oklahoma in 1984 to defeat a number one team and beat a Top 10 club the following week.

You think the Rose Bowl and wagering outlets were worried about Ohio State- USC rematch; they might have a bigger conundrum on their hands. If Penn State and Oregon State win out, they are set for rematch in Pasadena from Sept.6, when the Nittany Lions pulverized the Beavers 45-14 in Happy Valley. You can bet the West Coast crowd is praying Oregon State loses, setting up JoPa against Pete Carroll. Have to hand it to coach Mike Riley and Oregon State as they are peeking again late in the season. As noted in the Platinum Sheet, they have won a won a minimum of three of last five games of the regular season all but once in the last nine seasons.

For the first time ever, the Mid-American Conference beat their Midwestern heavyweight neighbor four times. Not really sure if that points to the MAC being improved in 2008 or that the Big 10 (11) is brutal. Here’s one other little known fact this season about these two conferences, the MAC was 4-9 straight up, yet covered 10 of 13 meetings. HUMMMM

Nice to see Charley Weis of Notre Dame come to the rescue of suddenly inept offense after being shutout by Boston College 17-0. That’s the second posted zero in last 14 games for the offensive genius. He made it clear that he had nothing to do with being blanked directly and will try to resurrect the offense against defensive powerhouses Navy and Syracuse. His true genius will be shown when his team finishes the season at USC. I never bought into this 9-3 or 10-2 business Beano Cook or others were selling, thinking 7-5 seemed about right. Until Weis can start bringing in offensive and defensive linemen that have ability and bad intentions, there won’t be much fight in the Irish.

This past week was a bad week to be a big home favorite or a home team catching points. Double digit home chalk was 5-9-2 against the spread last week, making them 23-39-3 ATS the last month. After posting positive numbers a week ago, home underdogs returned to sorry ways with 5-11 ATS figure. They are 32-58-3 ATS the last five weeks.

Quick notes- Do you think the Oklahoma Sooners offense is peaking? In their last three games they have averaged 47.3 points per game, in the first half!

If you think the Big 12 South is a confusing mess, try the ACC. Every team in the conference has two losses, meaning tie-breakers deluxe are a possibility to determine who plays in the conference championship game. Not surprisingly with this kind of balance, ACC home teams are 18-13 and 15-16 ATS. Also, home underdogs at 5-2 against the spread should make perfect sense this season.

Most preseason magazines had Iowa in the bottom half of the Big 10 standings. Based on their schedule and defense, believed they would finish fourth in the conference. Coach Kirk Ferentz has his team positioned to finish strong after Penn State upset and their four losses have been by a total of 12 points. The Hawkeyes are younger, which could mean even better days ahead for the honest and glib Ferentz.

In the SEC, Florida is showing they just might be not only the best team in the conference, but in the country the way they are playing. On the other hard, Tennessee coaches are to blame, but the Volunteers players should embarrassed for how they played in losing to Wyoming 13-7 as 27-point home favorites. Departing Phil Fulmer deserves to be criticized for letting program slip, but the guys in the orange jerseys are culpable also for not beating a team that has been outscored by the top four teams in the Mountain West Conference 161-13.

The Texas A&M defense is slower than an express checkout lane as the grocery store.

West Virginia is stuck with Bill Stewart as coach and the program will sink. My guess is the Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Big East conflict on Nov.22 will decide who wins the BCS berth, other games not withstanding.

As the Cold Winds of November blow, Know your Football Numbers

The month of November for much of the country sees thick dark low clouds become a more regular occurrence; a foreshadowing what lies ahead in the coming months. In the South and West, the days are often still sunny, but the thermometer takes a much slower climb to reach the daytime highs as the cooler nights linger much longer. Betting college football is also in transition in November. All the conference races head down the final stretch to figure out the winners. Bowl slots are determined by how teams finish in the standings, some pleased, and others not so much. The rhetoric about what teams deserve to play in the national championship game and fill the BCS bowls hits a fever pitch and upsets happen in the most unlikely places, like Pittsburgh upsetting West Virginia, spoiling their chance at the title last year.

November is not for the faint of heart, since just because a team needs to win, doesn’t mean they do. Inevitably the cream rises to the top. The very best teams hit their stride, reaching the next plateau in accomplishments. These teams are identifiable by the physical nature of which they play. The stronger teams become stronger and beat teams that are wearing down having been wearing the pads since August. Typically these squads have a solid running game and pass the ball with greater efficiency. The defense has the ability to make the opponent one-dimensional and expose their weaknesses.

The pretenders are exposed, having gotten by with an easier schedule to this point or maybe a pass defense has not been fully exploited and now faces teams that have studied the tape on them and have the ability to take advantage of their shortcomings. Another scenario that happens every November is injuries mount and no matter how well you have played and survived to this point, the reserves are just not as good and these teams lose.

For the 11th month on the calendar, trends can be very useful source since they paint a picture about the recent history of a team. That’s not to say you should trust these trends unequivocally, rather a good starting point to help formulate good a quality wager.

Certain teams have a home/ road dichotomy, playing well at home and not on the road. Two teams that fit this profile perfectly are highly ranked Oklahoma State and fellow Big 12 partner Texas A&M. The Cowboys are having a remarkable campaign under coach Mike Gundy with one of the most powerful offenses in the country. The defense continues to improve and they are set to have a great finish, especially when playing at home where Oklahoma State is 11-3-2 against the spread at Boone Pickens Stadium. What bettors have to watch out for is Okie State on the road, being 5-11-1 ATS as November visitors.

Mike Sherman was brought in to Texas A&M to turnaround the football program and the changes he has made have been sweeping, probably to the detriment of this year’s club. The offense has at least started scoring points, but the defense is slower than my uncle reaching to grab the check for dinner. With this conundrum, the Aggies are sure to add to 4-13 ATS record on the road. However, with the offense improving and with the help of the famous 12th man at College Station, backing A&M at home with 10-3-2 spread record isn’t all bad.

It always helps to accentuate the positive and large group of universities have stellar November records. You will find teams that do well at home, others on the road or they just know how to finish the regular season. A couple of MAC teams are not up to previous standards, nevertheless are worth a look this month based on the past. Miami-Ohio is 28-12 and 24-14-2 ATS since Tom Hanks won second straight Oscar for Forrest Gump. (1995). Toledo has also been a strong closer with 14-6 mark and 13-6-1 ATS record.

One team on nobody’s radar is UL-Monroe, maybe it’s time to play attention with 6-1 and 7-0 ATS record the last two years. Michigan State is another good club this month, playing the power game and they are 18-10-2 ATS in November. Let’s not forget the best team in the country, as Texas is 19-9-2 ATS to finish the regular season.

Missouri has delivered for college football bettors with 18-9 ATS road record since 1999 and Miami-Fl. have the same winning percentage with 14-7 spread mark. Mississippi State seldom attains notoriety, but delivers well on the road with 17-10-1 ATS record this month.

Though this season has been bumpy, East Carolina flourishes at home with recent 6-1 number against the linemakers. Fresno State is 7-3 ATS in raisin country and Virginia Tech before its always wildly enthusiastic fans is 17-7-1 in November contests in Blacksburg.

It can be difficult to comprehend why seemingly top notch programs don’t deliver better wagering results late in the year, especially at home. The most reliable theory is teams are comfortable playing before the home fans, lacking that edginess necessary to put away conference rivals. With the stakes usually high, the opposing teams are also fighting for conference honors or seeking to pull that last upset which could make their season. If these battles are close in the fourth quarter, the coach of the more skilled home team becomes more conservative and looks more to survive to play another day, than risk peddle to the mettle.

Unbeaten Alabama has been such a team with unsightly 4-16-2 ATS figure at home in November and fellow SEC member LSU, is right with the Crimson Tide as a home play against team with 5-16 ATS record. Despite Boston College’s continued growth and playing in the colder Northeast, they have failed to cover seven of the last nine tilts on Chestnut Hill late in the year.

Earlier, teams being exposed for playing poor defense were mentioned and UTEP fits the bill, with 5-13 record, covering the number a measly three times.

There is no shortage of road teams who fail miserably in November, take a gander.

Army 6-15 ATS
Baylor 4-13-1 ATS
Bowling Green 10-17 ATS
Kansas 4-20 ATS
Marshall 4-12 ATS
Nebraska 5-9-1 ATS
TCU 3-8-1 ATS
Wake Forest 5-15 ATS

There are other schools that flounder in November, with losing wagers go hand in hand. Tulane is 3-9 straight up and against the spread in the month where Thanksgiving resides. Florida Atlantic from the Sun Belt Conference is 4-10 ATS and New Mexico State from the WAC is whacked posting 10-19 ATS numbers. Kent State is 4-22 this month and 8-18 ATS, hardly a cause for thanksgiving, unless you are on the other side.

When it comes to the understanding college football in the last major month of the regular season, be knee-deep in knowledge supporting the right teams that will make you a winner.

Betting on tonight's ACC Game

While this Atlantic Coast Conference contest is not even the most important game on Thursday night, there is more than enough intrigue for those surfing channels and college football bettors alike. Let’s start with the TMZ-like stuff first. Long time Florida State assistant coach Chuck Amato left Tallahassee to coach is alma mater N.C. State in 2000 and his teams were known for undisciplined play, winning when they shouldn’t and losing when they should. His most notable accomplishment (besides the weird sunglasses) was beating the Seminoles three times, twice in North Florida. After being fired in 2006 for a 3-9 season in Raleigh, Bobby Bowden brought him back as linebacker coach and the Chuckster returns to the Carter-Finley Stadium for the first time since.

The first really big question is how does the Wolfpack extend spread cover record to 7-1 against Florida State? For practical purposes let’s assume it won’t be from running the ball, with N.C. State 117th in the country toting the pigskin and the Seminoles fifth stopping opposing ball carriers. Maybe the Wolfpack players will all excited to play on Thursday night before the home crowd and unknowingly raise their record to 8-0 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Yea, that’s gonna happen, let’s get out the lipstick for the pig.

Passing the ball is not a great option, as Wolfpack quarterbacks complete less than 50 percent of their attempts. No wonder Bookmaker.com has N.C. State as a 10.5-point home underdog, their offense is downright offensive.

Moving on, can the Wolfpack defense help pull the upset? Looking at the numbers at face value, the answer would be unequivocal, NO. They give up 430 yards a game compared to the teams they’ve played that have averaged 359 yards a game. That’s a difference of 71 yards (those high school math classes paying off again) which makes this as likely to happen as Linda and Hulk Hogan getting back together.

Does this mean N.C. State has no shot? No, no, no, of course not. Were talking a hulking young men interested in women, video games, UFC and women (not necessarily in that order). The Florida State offensive line is WAY better than what they have had in the last five years, yet is won’t be mentioned among the best 20 in the country. Stoic coach Tom O’Brien defense has to jam up the middle and take away Florida State run game. The idea is to force frosh QB Christian Ponder to be a playmaker as passer. Ponder is completing 40 percent of his passes for 165 yards a game in last three outings. Bobby Bowden’s team is starting to look more like the Navy offense than the Noles. Make Ponder ponder about passing and maybe N.C. State can improve to 7-2 in ACC games.

Let’s not forget, Florida State has beaten two FCS teams, Colorado and the U (Miami), with the latter two both .500. Offensive prosperity has not officially returned just yet with head-coach-in-waiting Jimbo Fisher running the offense. The Seminoles are 0-6 ATS in next game if oddsmakers have a line on it after cracking the 40 point barrier. Bowden’s bunch is 4-10 against the spread after holding a team to under the century mark rushing the ball.

I’ll give very shaky support to the cranked up home team to cover. What I really prefer is the total which is at 47.5. Turnovers could turn this into a loser for this guest writer, but what the heck, I found out Florida State is 12-3 Under as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points, with average score coming in at just a hair over 42 points. N.C. State is 12-3 Under playing on Thursday’s with average score a trifle beyond 44 total points.

In conclusion, I’m betting the Under and still thinking about a parlay with the total and Wolfpack and you can do whatever you like. Thanks for reading.

Red Wydley