Kansas City favored to win? You Bet

In studying the Wednesday baseball board, one pitching matchup stands out more than the rest this evening, at least by reputation if not 2010 results. Jake Peavy (7-5, 4.71 ERA) of the White Sox heads to the Kauffman Stadium mound to take on last year’s Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke (3-8, 3.72). Neither pitcher has enjoyed the kind of success they would have expected to this point of the season, however several signs point to each having a big second half.

Peavy is also a Cy Young winner, having earned that honor in 2007 at San Diego. In his first full season with Chicago in the American League, Peavy’s had a difficult adjustment after pitching in Death Valley (Petco Park) and moving to U.S. Cellular Field. The right-hander really struggled to start the year with 5.90 ERA in his first dozen starts (4-5), but has caught fire recently. In his last three outings (coincidently against National League teams), Peavy has been domineering with 0.78 ERA, permitting 12 hits in 23 innings.

Greinke also has found trouble this season. The 26-year old righty started the year throwing well enough to win, but the bullpen was blowing leads or tied games and Grenike didn’t earn his first win until May 13, and started to press from that point forward. As he admittedly tried to throw a perfect pitch on each toss, he made more mistakes, not less and strikeouts went down and base hits allowed went up.

After being rocked for nine hits and six runs in only five innings in a 7-3 loss at Minnesota, a 1-8 Greinke reevaluated his situation. With Kansas City again going nowhere in the standings with 33-45 record, Greinke decided to relax and just pitch to his ability and not create unreal expectations for him or the team. In his last three trips to the rubber, he has 2.63 ERA, striking out 23 while walking just two during that stretch.

“He’s put together three pretty good starts here in a row,” manager Ned Yost said after Greinke gave up two runs and seven hits over eight innings in recent 4-2 win over St. Louis. “He’s gaining velocity on his fastball. His command’s been a lot better. He’s really pitching terrific.”

Oddsmakers have the Royals favored for the just the 14th time this season (5-8, -5.5 units) at -115 over Chicago and not because K.C. is 4-12 with Grienke as starter.

In theory, Kansas City should be a better club. They are second in the American League in hitting with a .282 team batting average. Where the Royals falter is from a power outage, Kansas City needs too many base knocks to score, being 12th in home runs in the AL (53), which leads to pedestrian mark of ninth in runs scored in.

Nonetheless, we find a MLB system that overlooks the Royals’ shortcomings and makes them a likeable favorite.

Play On home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher, a hot hitting team, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, against opponent with a tough starting pitcher, whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts.

This baseball situation has come in 77.5 percent of the time the past five years at 62-18. This MLB system has been dynamic 6-0 this year and average run differential is 2.5 per contest. Yes it is true the Pale Hose have been playing outstanding baseball (12-2), but they are 6-20 in road games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last five outings. Plus, the Royals offense doesn’t stay sour for long with 9-3 mark after scoring three runs or less in consecutive contests this season.

Take a good hard look at K.C; it might be a masterpiece, just like the barbeque sauce.

Inhospitable home MLB teams

Its happened to all of us, we are invited over someone’s home as a guest and the place is set up as a palace. The entire house looks like out of magazine, where everything is perfect. If you have or did have children visiting this palatial estate, your body temperature just rose about three degrees, thinking about how you are going to keep your kids in tow, without messing up beautiful setting. You know you are in conundrum when the host gives you coasters, before they ask you what you want to drink.

This happens to be how many major league baseball teams feel when they have to play at certain ballparks. Though they can spit and spill drinks, more often than not, they are ill-equipped to do their job as visitors, win in opposing parks.

Sometimes, teams are just superior and the park has nothing to do with it. Other times there are quirks, which intimidate opponents and make them feel unsettled. Whatever the rationale, it works for these teams that take the field first and have the last at bat. Here is what clubs have enjoyed the home cookin’ and been downright rude to guests.

At the top of the list are the Los Angeles Dodgers at 18-5, garnering +10.8 units of profit, after record start of 13-0. Dodger Stadium has always been known as pitchers’ park, with the heavy air for most evening encounters. Most of the time when the Dodgers are at their best, they are able to put together a potent offensive team. Los Angeles is tied with Tampa Bay with the most productive offense in the majors at 5.7 runs per game and they are second in the National League behind Colorado at home. The Dodgers have been lambasting teams wearing the home whites, winning by 2.5 runs per contest, thanks to balanced line-up that is not feeling the affects of Manny Ramirez’s suspension. Orlando Hudson and Casey Blake have been stripen’ the horsehide and Juan Pierre has made the most of his chance to play for Manny, batting almost .400 this season.

If there is one shocking team to be among the best in baseball at home, it is the San Diego Padres. The Friars were supposed to be among the worst teams in baseball, lacking talent at most positions and having to rebuild bullpen as cash-strapped club. For some reason, the people that designed ballparks in San Diego, like them to have outfield expanse similar to the Grand Canyon. This alone keeps scores down and add in the heavy marine air at Petco Park, which is situated not far from Pacific Ocean, well you get the picture. Though the offense has been as sorry as presumed in scoring 3.7 RPG at home, the pitching has looked like the 1969 Mets. The Padres are 17-6 (+10.3) at Petco, presently holding a 10-game winning streak. No team in baseball allows fewer runs at home than San Diego at 3.2 per contest and while Jake Peavy and Chris Young are the known quantities, it is a bullpen that has ERA of 2.20 (over six on the road) at home that has allowed the Pads to manufacture just enough runs to win home games.

Another team that plays to its park is Boston, who is 17-6 (+7.9) at Fenway Park this season. The Red Sox fans are right on top of the action at the venerable ball yard and create intimidation factor when the opposing batter has two strikes or pitcher is in challenging spot, if Boston has rally emerging. Talent of course is the number one factor and this team has evolved from one that used to just swing to beat the ball off Green Monster, to one that takes advantage of the deeper parts of center and right-center or left-handed hitters that jack the ball down the short right field porch. Playing the Red Sox on the run line is effective method of wagering, since they win by two runs per game and are 13-4 at home in games determined by two or more runs.

One of the early surprises in the first quarter of the MLB season has been the Toronto Blue Jays. A miserable road trip has dropped the Blue Jays out of the AL East lead, but when they return home to Rogers Centre, Toronto will try to pick up where they left off with 16-6 record (+8 units). The most notable factor about the Jays playing at home is the pitching and defense. The RC is fairly neutral ballpark, however no team in the American League surrenders fewer runs than the Jays at home (3.9). Having Roy “Doc” Halladay at the top of the rotation is a benefit to pitching staff that was riddled with injuries to start the season. With so many youngsters forced into action, like most youthful hurlers, they are more comfortable at home. The team ERA is over 1.50 lower at home and the offense picks up, scoring 5.2 RPG and ranking fifth in home park home runs among the 30 competing teams.

How will these four teams be playing by the All-Star break, nobody knows for sure, nonetheless, for the present, each club deserves our attention as possible Play On squad when playing on own diamond.

Baseball Series Betting- San Diego at Philadelphia

Baseball in April is a lot like a horse race going to the first turn. The favorites don’t normally charge out of the gate and long-shots will frequently have the lead as the ponies disappear around the first curve. This happens in baseball almost every year and no better way to make this point is to see the San Diego Padres tied for first place in the National League West. Everyone expected and still expects San Diego to be one of the weaker teams in the senior circuit; however as major league baseball heads into its second weekend, the Pads are part of the biggest stories to start the season.

Owner John Moores is in the middle of a nasty divorce and due to California community property laws, Moores will have to sell all or parts of the franchise. This leads to taking a bare-bones approach to running the franchise, as was witnessed last year when San Diego won 63 games. This makes the Padres a collection of retreads and young players who may or may not be major league material. That’s not to say San Diego has no talent, with All-Star Adrian Gonzalez at first base, hard-working David Eckstein at second and Brian Giles in right. Names less known are Jody Gerut in center, who is hitting almost .290, Chase Headley is over the .300 barrier with on-base percentage of .360 and catcher Nick Hundley has better numbers than Headley.

A bigger reason why San Diego has started so well is pitching. They are seventh in runs allowed at 3.8 per game, with teams hitting just .235 against them. A remade bullpen without Trevor Huffman has an ERA of 2.40 and is five for five in save chances. Though Jake Peavy is still likely to be traded (sources now have Philadelphia as strong contender), tonight’s starter Chris Young (2-0, 1.38) has acted like an ace, striking out 12 in 13 innings and allowing only two walks. Though the money line has fallen considerably; Young and the Pads are 6-0 as +150 or more underdogs.

Philadelphia has had to deal with many distractions, the unfortunate passing of legendary announcer Harry Kalas and the wonderment of what is up with tonight’s starter Cole Hamels (0-1, 17.18 ERA). Hamels insists his elbow and arm are fine, despite the loss of seven-mph on fastball in first start in Colorado. Hamels incurred a heavy workload in winning World Series and many believe it has taken its toll. Don’t count Hamels among those that believe and pitching coach Rich Dubee insists he’s just behind from not being able to throw enough in the spring. Oddsmakers still favor the Phillies at -168 and the left-hander and Philly are 14-1 as a home favorite of -150 to -200 over the last two seasons.

Game 1 Edge: San Diego

This is will be a four-game series, which concludes on Monday, but as always the case in this situation; the first three games are how series wagers are determined. Last season the Phillies bullpen was as important a reason as any as to why they became baseball’s best. This group has not started as well in 2009, with a 4.97 ERA. What has been the bugaboo is surrendering seven home runs in 29 innings. The slimmed down Brett Myers (1-1, 5.54) was more effective in second start giving up only four hits over seven innings. Myers control has been improved, a little too good as it turns out. He’s struck out 12 with only two free passes, but six of the dozen hits he’s allowed have gone over the wall. Myers and the Phils are 23-6 against the NL West. San Diego counters with Shawn Hill (1-0, 3.60), who pitched fairly well in his Padres debut. Don’t expect great things from the right-hander as a starter, having not pitched more than 103 innings in five years. Watch the for line on game two, with Philadelphia coming into the series 22-4 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 and 7-1 on Saturday’s.

Game 2 Edge: Philadelphia

If the probable starting pitchers are correct, Game 3 might have a few runs scored. San Diego will start Walter Silva (0-0, 6.52), who hadn’t pitched as professional in the U.S. until he faced the Mets last Monday. Silva pitched well for four innings until tiring in the fifth and blew 5-1 lead. He has a good assortment of pitches, which is how he made the big club. Silva has to be right, since the Friars are 5-19 vs. teams whose hitters strike out six or less times a game coming in the City of Brotherly Love. Chan Ho Park (0-0, 10.38) doesn’t have a long leash one would imagine and has to do better than allowing five runs in just 3 1/3 innings. At 35, Park should be a middle reliever, pitching for the Dodgers. In his career he has 2.96 ERA at Dodger Stadium and over 5.20 ERA everywhere else.

Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia

The series finale has Kevin Correia (0-1, 4.09) taking on Jamie Moyer (1-1, 6.55).

Philadelphia comes into the series at .500 and Jimmy Rollins struggling at the dish batting .111. This is a chance for the Phillies to start making a little headway and building momentum. Though the pitching has been disheartening to start, San Diego is batting .236 as a team, which means they are beatable if you score against them. Taking this into consideration, have to play the Phils in series wager, despite the Pads hot start.

Bookmaker.com series odds: Philadelphia -300, San Diego +220

3DW Pick: Philadelphia

2009 Record – 1-0