Mountaineers vs Blue Devils Final Four Matchup

You want intensity? I said do you want intensity! Well get up off the couch, sit straight up with both feet planted firmly on the floor, because Bob Huggins and Mike Krzyzewski have narrowed eyes, with taunt faces, having prepared their teams as only they can for the second Final Four game of the day involving a 1 and 2 seed.

Missed shots, no problem

Of the four finalists in downtown Indianapolis, West Virginia (31-6, 17-19 ATS) is the poorest shooting team at 43.1 percent. For the Mountaineers, this just means opportunity for their athletic leapers to spring into action, collect the orange and put it back in the basket. West Virginia averages 15.5 offensive rebounds a game and is 8-1 ATS in road affairs when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds a contest since Huggins returned to alma mater.

Butler University isn’t the only butler in town, as the Mountaineers have Da'Sean Butler, who at least in West Virginia circles has opponents saying “the butler did it”. This is what a Big East coach said about Butler the player.

“[Da’Sean Butler] is so versatile. Our guy did a good job on him. We tried to limit his touches. In their five-man motion [offense], they’ll run 25 seconds off the clock if they don’t get a quick one. They keep moving. Butler has won so many games and hit so many big shots. We kind of overplayed him and let someone else do it. When he has the ball, he can score from ‘3.’ He can penetrate, and he hits the boards hard.”

Long athletes like Devin Ebanks, Kevin Jones and Wellington Smith pound the glass and have understood their roles in the offense better as the season has unfolded. It’s little wonder why the ‘Teers have tore off 10-game (7-3 ATS) winning streak.

Dukies have depth

Quietly, a few whispers had been heard that possibly Coach K no longer had the Midas touch in bringing in top-rate recruits to Durham, particularly tall ones. This has led to a few early exits in the Big Dance the past few seasons. This season has been a renaissance for Duke (33-5, 22-14-1 ATS), with frontline players complimenting its best players and adding a physical aggressiveness not seen around the program lately.

Maybe it was the practices, or Mason and Miles Plumlee acting like the Hanson brothers from “Slap Shot”, but all of the sudden the Blue Devils were devilish on defense and demons on the offensive boards. Brian Zoubek finally became the player the Duke coaches had envisioned, being an ill-tempered rebounder and defender, with a real thirst for winning. Lance Thomas had played an undersized center in his career, but was allowed to move to four spot on the floor and his confidence and energy increased.

The Plumlee brothers gained confidence themselves and started moving out opposing players like bouncers at a Durham night spot. Kyle Singler got into the act and Duke was like the Pistons of 1989-90, the “Bad Boys” with polite smiles as opposed to snarls. This Duke team fooled everyone, even the oddsmakers, which is why they are 21-13 ATS after playing consecutive games as favorite this season.

Combat gear required

Duke is a 2.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.com, with total falling to 131. The Blue Devils do not shoot the rock a great deal better than West Virginia at 44 percent, but tracks down 14.6 offensive rebounds a contest and they are 20-8 ATS after two straight games with 15 or more offensive boards. Duke is 12-2 OVER in a neutral court setting where the total is 130 to 139.5.
The Mountaineers are the bettor’s best pal with 16-2 ATS record in a NCAA tournament conflicts and 11-4 UNDER after they have covered the spread this season.

Games involving 1 vs. 2 seeds have the higher seed 5-4 SU in the Final Four since field was taken to 64 teams. Two betting twists of note: two seeds off a double digit spread win are 1-7 ATS in this round, but a top seed that is unbeaten ATS to this point is 1-5 ATS in next outing.

East has only formatted pairing

In what many are calling the greatest NCAA Tournament ever, at the very least to this point, the East Region has been a sea of tranquility, at least in part. Top seeds Kentucky and West Virginia are the only No. 1 and No. 2 seeds to make to the Elite Eight field from the same region and these two squads are combined 6-0 SU and ATS to this juncture. For those who would run over Cinderella’s glass slipper and discard her to the side of the road, this is the right matchup.

Kentucky (35-2, 20-15 ATS) became the best bet to win the NCAA Tournament after Kansas was derailed and they look the part, winning by 25.3 points per game in three tries. It’s amusing to read Kentucky detractors, this team is too young, they don’t shoot the ball well against zone defenses and Ashley Judd doesn’t look that hot in blue. While all or some of this conjecture might be true, coach John Calipari had arguably the most talented team coming into the tournament and as opposed to Kansas who could match them ability-wise, coach Cal’s players have an obvious desire to win and convincingly.

Kentucky has moved to 6-0 ATS in NCAA tourney clashes and their defense is unrelenting, with no team shooting over 36 percent in last three games and only Mississippi State converting over 40 percent among the previous six opponents.

West Virginia (30-6, 16-19 ATS) can also “D” it up with their physical nature. The Mountaineers have also not permitted a team to shoot over 40 percent in the tournament and six of last seven foes have not been able to make four of ten shot attempts. Coach Bob Huggins squad has won nine in a row (6-3 ATS) by locking down shooters and playing volleyball with their own missed shots.

Against Washington, they owned the glass with a 49-29 advantage and if they can convert over 76 percent from the charity stripe (13-17) against Kentucky, they could move to 22-4 ATS in all post-season tournament games since 1997.

Kentucky is a four-point pick at Bookmaker.com, with total of 133.5 and 13-6 ATS versus defensive teams holding opponents to 42 percent or less shooting and 7-1 ATS in previous eight Saturday assignments. The Wildcats are 9-1 OVER after three consecutive contests allowing 37 percent or less shooting. West Virginia is 6-0 ATS after a trio of teams have failed to score 60 or more points against them and 11-3 UNDER after they’ve covered the spread this season.

Watch for if Bob Huggins brings out their 1-3-1 zone sooner against Kentucky. Though West Virginia doesn’t use it a great deal in any given game, typically it has been at the end of a contest and it has worked like Mariano Rivera in closing out games. Because of Kentucky’s size, they might put John Wall and Patrick Patterson in the corners to get shots and set backside screens for lob attempts to either or both.

Maybe it just seems peculiar, but a 1 vs. 2 matchup only happens 35 percent of the time in the Elite Eight according to BracketScience.com since the field went to 64 teams. The higher seed is a mere 18-17 SU, with point differential of +1.4.