The Day After

Officially took a 1-1 day on Super Bowl Sunday and we’ll search for better results the day after. Sort of a slow day on Monday, thus the Best System around happens to be on the NHL at 32-6. The Top Trend and Free Pick have a decided view point, see what you think. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- Congratulations to the New Orleans Saints for winning the first ever Super Bowl and the city’s first ever championship. The most striking aspect of the game was Sean Payton’s ability to be himself. Since becoming a head coach, he’s always been a risk taker and it worked for him again in Miami.

Going for the fourth down and not making it near the end of the second quarter and still being able to come away with three points to get the score to 10-6. The onside kick was a decisive play, that just as easily could have gone the other way (imagine the outcry had the Colts gotten the ball and score to take the lead to 17-6). Finally, the challenge that was reversed to give New Orleans a touchdown lead, which brought into question how the rule actually reads. Three decisions that could just as easily worked against the Saints, but if you are destined to win a Super Bowl, those thinks go your way.

Kudos to Drew Brees, 29 for 32 over final three quarters, as New Orleans literally took what Indianapolis gave them, with eight different receivers reading the Colts zone and running to area and coming back to ball for pitch and catch completions. This is the same Brees San Diego didn’t believe had the ability to win a championship with. The Chargers were probably right, it would have never happened in San Diego.

Gregg Williams’ defense was burned for 10 quick points and switched from 3-4 to 3-3-5, which created more exotic looks and made it tougher for Peyton Manning to be consistent. This defense shuffle ultimately set up the game’s winning Pick Six for the Saints.

The Dwight Freeney injury was a big deal since he was unable to use spin move and the Saints seldom had to double him, particularly in the final 30 minutes after his ankle stiffened up. In a world where instant coffee isn’t fast enough, Peyton Manning went from one of the all-time greats before the game to 9-9 in the post-season immediately after its conclusion by the talking heads.

Early reports are this might be the most watched Super Bowl ever and one of the most wagered on. Because so many books had exposure to the New Orleans on the money line, they either will show a slight loss or profit when everything is tabulated.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Hockey System -1) Play on any team against the money line like Phoenix, off a blowout loss by three goals or more to a division rival against opponent off consecutive road losses by two goals or more. The pucks system is 32-6, 84.2 percent.

Free Basketball Trends - 2) Fairfield is 0-8 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points over the last two years.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The LCC is solidly behind West Virginia to cover tonight with betting members 11-0 in their favor.

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Super Bowl Sunday

Iowa State made three 3’s in the final 80 seconds I believe it was, preventing 3-0 day. The Best System follows one of the hottest teams in the Big East and it’s not Syracuse, in a system that is 81 percent. Sal has his top Super Bowl bet and today’s trends are more informational than anything. Plus, I share my SB pick and top prop wagers. Good Luck and enjoy the game and day.

What I’m doing today- I like the Colts to win the game, 34-23, but have decided to have a little fun and bets the Saints with the points and have wagered equal value on Indy on the money line, thus hoping for them to win and not cover.

Here are my favorite prop bets today.

First Quarter –Under 13 points
Largest lead of the game (16.5) Under
Colts rushing yards (95.5) Under
Manning completions (25.5) Over
Reggie Wayne – completions (5.5) Over
Dallas Clark receiving yards (69.5) Over

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like South Florida off an upset win as an underdog of 10 or more, in February games. The Bulls also get back their second leading scorer for a system that is 34-8 ATS, 81 percent.

Free Football Trends - 2) Not really trends per se, but interesting. When Dallas Clark catches a touchdown pass Indianapolis is 19-1 SU the last three years. The last three quarterbacks to complete 70 or more percent of their passes during the regular season went on to win a Super Bowl, can you say Drew Brees.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal of the Left Coast Connection bet the Colts on the money line.

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What are the Betting Possibilities for Super Bowl XLIV

The day has arrived, oh sure there will be a great deal of chatter, heart-warming stories and a blast from the past (which includes The Who), looking at the history of the game itself still to come before kickoff of No. 44, however for the most part, it is window dressing to prepare for party you are hosting or attending. The biggest question on every bettors mind besides the $10 prop bet on the coin toss is who wins and covers? For your reading pleasure, here are the definitive answers to those questions.

Indianapolis wins and covers IF Peyton Manning has time to throw the ball. Manning’s work ethic and attention to detail is well documented and given time, will pick apart any defense. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark were quiet in AFC Championship game, as New York had the best shutdown corner in the NFL in Darrelle Revis and game-planned to take away Clark, forcing Manning to look elsewhere, which he expertly did. Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter are two good corners, just not in the same area code as Revis. With DC Gregg Williams expected to blitz heavily (though don’t be surprised if they rush three and have eight in coverage more than believed with all the posturing), Manning will look to hot receiver and deliver.

The Colts don’t have to run a great deal, just meet their 23 attempts per game, to give New Orleans something to look at. As long as Indianapolis averages 3.7 or more per carry, that keeps them on balance for all down and distance situations.

Defensively, the Colts have to play their game. That means rushing Drew Brees to make one read and throw the ball, not allowing him time to survey the field and pick out a receiver for a bigger play. Indianapolis has to be stout in the middle, as this is where the Saints prefer to run. That would mean the names Gary Brackett and Melvin Bullitt are spoken frequently.

Indianapolis wins, but does not cover IF the Saints cover a few different aspects. Look for New Orleans to use various packages that include five and six defense backs, depending on down and distance. Coach Williams will entrust the underrated Greer can at least prevent Wayne from having big game and will use a corner to cover Clark, to nullify his speed and hope he can get underneath with safety help over the top. DT Sedrick Ellis has to be dynamic to shut down Colts running game to three or less yards a pop (something the Saints have seldom done) and be the key guy in creating pressure into Manning’s face up the gut.

A big factor will be the health of Dwight Freeney. He is Indy’s one true difference maker on defense and if he is at 50 percent or less or can’t go much beyond the second quarter, a big edge goes to Brees and offense, since they won’t need to double Freeney, putting another receiver out into the pattern or used as safety valve. The Indianapolis corners are beatable and given time, Brees could have big day passing.

New Orleans is money line play IF they are the more physical team. That starts up front on offense and carries over to front seven on defense. The Saints can create a push with the trio of center Jonathan Goodwin and guards Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks. If this threesome starts punching holes in the Colts middle and Brackett is making tackles five yards down field, head coach Sean Payton will be smiling and working his play sheet feverishly. Pierre Thomas is punishing downhill runner and Reggie Bush has been more physical, still having big play potential. A running game leaves Brees with countless possibilities in the passing game, short and long and if head coach Jim Caldwell wants to dial up blitzes, no problem for Brees to go highly effective screen game. The Saints will not be discouraged if they fall behind, as they have had a number of come from behind victories.

The Saints defense is maligned and justifiably so, ranking 25th during the regular season and being ripped by Minnesota for 475 yards in NFC title tilt. However, ask Brett Favre and Kurt Warner how much they enjoyed being hit by New Orleans blitzers, enough to where both will likely retire having faced them in last game ever. (OK, overstating the point but a great trivia question in future years) The beauty of a one game finale is coach Williams defense has less pressure, as what their real mission is to give up fewer points than what their team’s offense scores and who cares if Manning passes for 500 yards, as long as they win. As has been the case all year, the defense has to be opportunistic and create turnovers, likely at least three. New Orleans has forced 46 takeaways this season in 18 games and will have a few defensive wrinkles Manning has not seen and has to hope they can keep the Colts in from of them. If this plan is completed, Who Dat will mean Super Bowl champions.

Which way does the total go? Most experts are figuring a shootout with the two premier quarterbacks this season; each is well-armed with a myriad of weapons and defenses that have as many questions as answers. Nerves and the feeling out process plays a big role in the first quarter, as 10 of the last 11 Super Bowls have seen 10 or fewer points in the opening 15 minutes, with seven of those being 3-0 or no score. Typically, once the players and coaches have made adjustments, the offenses start to sizzle. Given the circumstances and how these offenses can perform, points in the final 45 minutes should add up quickly.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Indianapolis as five-point favorite with total of 56.5. Enjoy the game.

Is Pointspread for Super Bowl XLIV?

Any coach past or present will tell you the game of football is about two things, blocking and tackling. While that is absolutely true in its simplest form, Super Bowl XLIV is completely different from its past with the possible exception of just a handful of contests for the Lombardi Trophy. Start with the total of this Roman numeral confrontation. The total of 56.5 is the highest ever, surpassing the Giants and New England figure of 54 points two years ago. This number could well come down by game time this Sunday; nevertheless it stands a very good chance of being the largest total ever.

Why would this be, the NFL rules are geared toward offenses to score points. The two best quarterbacks this season are facing off in the Super Bowl and each organization has drafted in a manner to assure their pigskin passers have the necessary weapons to maximize their abilities and put pressure on defenses. This season, Indianapolis has averaged 38 passes per game and New Orleans averaged 34 passes per contest. For those old enough to remember, Super Bowl XII had the unbeaten Miami Dolphins as surprisingly one-point underdogs to George Allen’s “Over the hill gang” Washington Redskins. In one of the duller Super Bowl’s, the Dolphins completed the still one and only undefeated season, winning 14-7. In the contest, Hall of Fame quarterback Bob Griese was 8 for 11 passing, for all of 88 yards. Figure Peyton Manning and Drew Brees to have the attempts and yardage surpassed that Griese threw for on that day sometime relatively early in the second quarter.

After the Colts solved the Jets defense in winning the AFC Championship, most educated oddsmakers were thinking Indianapolis as three-point favorite against the winner of the NFC contest. However, since New Orleans was dominated statistically in their matchup by Minnesota, most thought 3.5 or four points would draw relatively divided action. With roughly 15-20 percent of the dollars wagered on the side of the Super Bowl by this past Sunday, the vast majority of the action had been on Indy, moving them to -5.5 points , but the Dwight Freeney news shoved to number back down to -4.5 or 5. In breaking down the two teams, is the number accurate?

Peyton Manning vs New Orleans pass defense

On paper this looks like the biggest mismatch since Conan O’Brien taking on NBC. Manning has arguably been the best quarterback in football the last eight years, except when Tom Brady had a better New England club. The Colts have averaged 283 yards passing against teams that allowed 218, that’s almost a 30 percent difference vs. any defense they have taken on this year. Manning makes uncommon sight adjustments to blitzes and gets rid of the ball quickly. New Orleans on the other hand can be riddled by opposing teams via the pass. Take away games this season in which the Saints faced teams who preferred to run like Carolina, Detroit, Buffalo, Miami and the Jets, and the New Orleans secondary surrendered 277.6 yards in the 12 other contests or roughly what the Colts totaled all season. Granted, some the yardage allowed was after New Orleans had built big leads in several early games, but there were a number of late season contests in which they were also torched.

Nobody in football makes better in-game adjustments than Manning and his offensive coordinator Tom Moore and nobody this season did a better job in stopping opposing teams by forcing turnovers than the Saints. Defensive coordinator Greg Williams is on record as saying how they attacked Brett Favre is similar to how they want to get after Manning. The Jets had Darrelle Revis to at least take away Reggie Wayne and they did a good job in limiting Dallas Clark. It does not appear Manning will face those same obstacles against Saints secondary.

Spread Differential – Indianapolis -7

Drew Brees vs Indianapolis pass defense

Brees might not have All-Pro type receivers like Manning has in Wayne and Clark; however he has a stable full any Kentucky thoroughbred barn would be proud of. No team in professional football had a more diverse passing attack than New Orleans. The Saints had seven different players catch 35 balls or more during the regular season. Coach Sean Payton has set up offense very much like a basketball team that has exceptional depth and has the skill to score points. Only Manning has the ability to scan the field as quickly to find an open receiver as Brees, who also has keen understanding of taking what the offense gives as well as wanting to dictate the tempo to keep the defense guessing. The Colts are better equipped to limit or contain the New Orleans passing game. Bookend defensive ends Freeney and Robert Mathis can bring a heap of trouble off the edges. Freeney in particular is going to demand a double team, unless his troubled ankle proves otherwise, as normal backup tackle Jermon Bushrod is not equipped to make this a solo project. Mathis’ edge over right tackle Jon Stinchcomb isn’t as definitive; just the same the Colts DE is the better player. Antoine Beathea is an emerging star at safety for the Colts, with the rest of the secondary somewhat dependant on what happens up front.

Spread Differential – New Orleans -3

Indianapolis running game vs. New Orleans front seven

For two teams in the Super Bowl, this is one area that is about as unusual as you will find. The Colts running game is reminiscent of Bill Walsh’s and Joe Montana’s first winning Super Bowl team from the 1982 season. The 49ers were a pure passing team and ran the ball just to give the defense something to preoccupy from time to time. The Indianapolis front office had not been impressed with Joseph Addai since they won the Super Bowl in 2006 season and drafted Donald Brown from Connecticut. Addai doesn’t hit the edges as well on the stretch plays, working better between the B-gaps and making cuts. Indy posts a laughable 3.5 yards per carry against teams that permitted 4.1. The offense line seldom gets a chance to go out and drive block, however does appear less potent in this aspect of the game from the Super Bowl team from three years ago. Beyond Sedrick Ellis, the Saints defense front absorbs more punishment than it creates. New Orleans gives up 4.6 yards per carry, since their linebackers lack extensive speed to quickly fill gaps. It would seem Indianapolis could do business here, but has shown no inclination to commit to the run, rushing over 100 yards twice on last 12 contests. Expect the Colts to be satisfied carrying the ball their usual 23 times and leave it to their MVP to close the deal.

Spread Differential – Even

New Orleans running game vs Indianapolis front seven

Besides turnovers, if the Who Dats are going to upset the Colts, this is where it has to come from. Guards Carl Nicks, Jahri Evans and center Jonathan Goodwin must have special day opening up holes for Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Saints coach Payton needs to show restraint here and get physical upfront with the Colts. Gouging the Indianapolis defense for four to five yards a pop opens up tight end Jeremy Shockey and slot receiver Robert Meacham in the passing game. Payton may try the screen game, however few have had successful against linebackers Clint Session, Gary Brackett and safety Beathea, who can all run and are sure tacklers. Instead, as part of the running game, they should include trips (three receivers) to the short side of the field, with Bush standing behind them and sending him into motion to wide side of the field, hopefully drawing linebacker. This gets Bush in the open field for essentially a screen pass or comeback slant route underneath with blockers, more or less a run play in Saints offense.

Spread Differential – New Orleans -1

Special Teams

Reggie Bush gives the Saints a home run hitter in returning punts, however the way to stop him is what Minnesota did, have the punter sacrifice a few yards to increase kick coverage and get right in his grill upon the catch. Indianapolis continues to spend little time in this area and is strictly run of the mill. Where the Colts have edge is at place-kicker. Matt Stover came in when Adam Vinateri was injured. The 42-year old Stover will be the oldest player ever participate in the Super Bowl and has 20 years experience, including being the Ravens kicker during the 2001 Super Bowl campaign. Stover’s range is limited to about 45-yards, especially outdoors and has made 80 percent (20 of 25) of field goals in his postseason career. Kicker Garrett Hartley is young enough (23) to conceivably be Stover’s son. Hartley has made 24 of 26 field goals in his two years, but the pressure is all together different on the game’s biggest stage. Plus, Hartley has kicked in a dome the last two seasons and realistically is untested, though his game winner over Minnesota was impressive.

Spread Differential – Indianapolis -1

Coaching

It would seem these two coaches couldn’t be any more different with each facing unprecedented scrutiny for the first time. Jim Caldwell, to the chagrin of his team gave up 14-0 season and a chance for perfection to be in this position and it worked. Caldwell’s strength is in his beliefs and defensive. He altered the mechanics of the Colts defense, still playing a lot of Cover 2, but blitzed twice as much as his predecessor Tony Dungy. With young players at corner due to injury, he followed the Colts’ ideologies of players are expected to step up and perform. Low key leader who trusts assistants and his team.

Sean Payton’s arrival into the NFL showed a fertile offensive mind who couldn’t devise enough trick plays and use them quickly enough. Like many great offensive teams, the coach and quarterback become one on various levels and Payton trusted Brees from the beginning. Payton took some lumps the last couple of seasons, which has brought about a new found maturity, giving his offense a chance to succeed on almost every play and toned down the risk taking. As opposed to Caldwell, he embraced the notion of a perfect season when his team was 13-0. He makes no bones about playing to his strength (offense) and turned the defense over this season to Gregg Williams. His biggest task this game is not letting his emotions affect his play calling.

Spread Differential -None

Intangibles

There have been a number of teams that have won their first Super Bowl without having been involved in this maniacal environment, but having the experience is certainly a plus. Teams’ playing in this contest for the first time against experienced foe are desultory 6-11 ATS. Though players say they understand, sometimes its months later in reflection they realize they were satisfied to make the Big Game as opposed to truly desiring to win it. Payton and Brees have the heart of an assassin, thus their preparation and desire is predicated on going home champions. The city of New Orleans, with all that has happened once Hurricane Katrina made land, feels like it playing with house money and welcomes the idea of their football team playing for the city’s first championship, instead of craving it. The team had better listen to their coach and field general.

Though it seems Manning has been around forever, it’s still kind of hard to believe he’s 33 years old and is facing the possibility of having diminishing skills. He admits to sometimes barely getting out to make handoff on stretch plays and unlike Brett Favre, doesn’t spend much time thinking about his place in history in the NFL, he’s more consumed with winning and letting others determine where he belongs.

The Indianapolis team that was at this same location in 2007 was probably the worst of the four previous (2003-06) Colts playoff teams. That club found a hot rookie running back in Addai and the offensive line got into a bull-dozing mode and they plowed their way to championship. That experience gives the Colts an edge knowing what to expect and what level of performance is necessary. Teams favored by three to six points in this truly American game are 8-2 ATS.

Because the New Orleans defense is decidedly inferior, they have to continue to force turnovers. The oddsmakers are telling us Indy is your winner 31-25, based on spread and total. The Saints need to force no less than three turnovers and convert those into a minimum of 14 points, since the offense would be expected to generate 14 to 17 points on their own.

With Manning and Brees rightfully garnering the lion’s share of attention, four Colts youngsters could have direct impact on outcome. Receivers Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie played like seasoned vets against the blitzing Jets, as each was primary target thanks to Rex Ryan’s defensive scheme and they passed the test amazingly well. The New Orleans secondary will have far different coverages, yet their ability to “come thru” will be no less important.

Corners Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey have given Colts fans a few anxious moments on occasion, but have played beyond reasonable expectations. They can study film from morning till night, but undoubtedly they will be faced with things they haven’t seen before against the Saints and every New Orleans receiver is big with good speed. If they think their quarterback gets rid of the ball in a hurry, wait until they see Brees. Their play under pressure will define how many points the Saints total.

Spread Differential –Indianapolis -3

Bottom Line - Having the best quarterback in the game who doesn’t make many mistakes, a better defense and better than half the roster having Super Bowl experience leads to figure below.

Cumulative Spread Differential – Indianapolis -7

Vikings at Saints Preview

Brett Favre vs. Drew Brees. That sets the stage for what should be a highly entertaining NFC Championship encounter. In interviews this week, both quarterbacks have expressed the belief they were destined to be on these particular teams after believing they were no longer wanted by a previous employer.

Favre has enjoyed the ride this season, being in a place we wanted after rightfully or wrongly feeling his services were no longer required in Green Bay after losing NFC title game two years ago. Whether it’s the motivation of winning another Super Bowl and going out on top like John Elway did (something he’s always craved) or sticking it to the Packers organization, or both, the 40-year old quarterback has played with a sense of urgency, knowing his football clock is ticking.

Brees left San Diego with the organization believing they could not be a consistent winner with the former Purdue quarterback. However, Brees signed with New Orleans became a huge part of a community that suffered unfathomable strife from Hurricane Katrina and found the right coach who could develop his abilities and bring out the creative aspects of his game.

Minnesota (13-4, 10-6-1 ATS) is 3.5-point underdog with total of 53.5, which is the highest since Atlanta and Minnesota in 1999 title tilt (55). The Vikings were 8-4-1 ATS against the NFC this year and as important as Favre is, Adrian Peterson could well be the most important player for the Vikings in this contest. A.P. has gone eight games without busting past 100 yards rushing and most believe it’s because the offense is more based around No. 4 and he has audibled out of a good number of running plays this season. Talking to a scout who watches film on all NFL teams, he’s noted Peterson has been less patient in following blocks this season, often making poor decisions trying to break longer runs.

Minnesota would be foolish to not give Peterson a large number of carries against a defense that surrenders 4.6 yards per carry. Peterson can’t get caught up in the emotion of the moment and forget ball protection (six lost fumbles this year) in trying to make 50-yard run when four or five is all he can get. Peterson and Chester Taylor have to think averages against the Saints. Two runs means third and one giving Favre lots of options against New Orleans defense.

Given the listed total, this is presumed to be a touchdown game. Favre will have his work cut out for him since New Orleans (14-3, 9-8 ATS) had the NFL’s best red zone pass defense. This is where clever play calling and execution is tantamount for club that is 7-15 ATS against teams with winning home record.

If the Vikings can’t generate the same pass rush as they did against Dallas (three of the four D-linemen missed two practices this week), the “Who Dat” talk will begin early. Brees has more weapons of mass destruction than Iraq ever had. Minnesota has their best cover corner Antoine Winfield hobbling; mainly playing slot receivers in the nickel and rookie middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley can be influenced by the flow of the play and taken out of position. The Saints are 10-2-1 ATS after covering the spread and will attack the Vikings at their weakest points.

In reviewing New Orleans this season two aspects standout when they play their best. The Saints are able to run the ball and they use Jeremy Shockey a lot in the first 20 minutes. That’s not to say Brees can’t have a big game using other players, however peak effectiveness has occurred when this pattern is established.

The Saints offensive line had problems with the Cowboys pass rush when they suffered their first defeat of the season, which they can’t allow the league’s top sacking unit to have the same type of success or they lose fourth game in last five and end the season 1-6 ATS in final seven contests.

New Orleans has lost and failed to cover last four meetings vs. Minnesota, with each going Over the total. The Saints are 11-3 OVER off a home win over the last three seasons while Minny is 7-0 UNDER in road games after a win by 14 or more points during the same time span.

For believers of fate, watch the outcome of Colts game, since the last seven times the two top seeds have played in Conference Championship contests, not once have both advanced to the game with roman numerals.

Are Jets and Vikings good Money Line plays?

Both New York and Minnesota are road underdogs this upcoming Sunday, yet each in their own way has proven to be a valuable play for the sports bettors. The postseason tournament has revisited yesteryear this season, as the two top seeds from each conference advanced to the conference titles games for the first time since 2004. However, if history has shown us anything, the higher seeded favorite not only fails to cover, but they lose outright.

The last time two top seeds made it to the Super Bowl was the season of 1993. Since that time, on seven different occasions a matchup of the best from the NFC and AFC could have happened and not once did this occur. Betting on No.1 leaves a nasty mark at 5-9 against the spread with seven outright losers, six from the AFC.

Confident New York rolling

The Jets are the bigger underdog at 7.5-points at Bookmaker.com and are +280 on the money line. Indianapolis has nobody to blame but themselves for ending up with this opponent who really believes in itself.

The Colts pulled many of the their top players against the Jets in Week 16 and New York stormed to 26-6 second half, providing the momentum they needed to start winning. Make no mistake, coach Rex Ryan has this team believing they are every bit as good as the 85’ Bears and 2000 Ravens, both defensive-oriented teams that won Super Bowls.

In analyzing the rosters of the two teams, take away Peyton Manning; a case could be made the Jets have a better starting roster. The Colts offensive line is merely average with Indy have no running game to speak of, saved by Manning’s ability to get rid the ball. No doubt Manning has the skill to pick apart any defense, but this is unique Jets D, who creates relentless pressure from every angle imaginable and whose job this week is to make Manning miserable, which could lead to bad throws and possible picks.

The Jets are going to run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, as the duo along with a talented offensive line averages 4.5 yards per carry on 38 attempts per contest. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has played smartly in recent weeks and his confidence has been growing, making better throws especially once the second half arrives.

NFL playoff football has evolved into getting hot at the right time. The Flyboys have won and covered seven of eight and don’t worry about playing a third straight game on the road, the Giants and Steelers have won Super Bowls in the last four years doing so.

Strong defensive teams allowing 14-18 points per game, against teams that allow 18 to 23 points per contest, after allowing 17 points or less in three straight times, are 44-18 on the money line.

Minnesota is Favre-ulous

It was a little shocking to see New Orleans as four-point favorites over Minnesota, since the Vikings appear to have a decidedly better defense. That said the Vikings have not been nearly as good away from the Metrodome this season with .500 record SU and ATS and haven’t won or covered a road game since Nov. 1 in Green Bay (0-3).

It would be foolish to dismiss Minnesota since this team is right where many thought they would be dating back to the middle of October. Brett Favre has been amazing. Scrap the grayish beard and flecks on the dome and he looks every bit the player that went to consecutive Super Bowls in the mid-90’s. Gone are the days of just throwing it up for grabs, trusting his arm along with coaches patience, trying to play Mission Impossible plays.

While New Orleans has offensive weapons all over the field, Minnesota crew is hardly second-rate. Receivers like Sidney Rice are explosive and rookie Percy Harvin is a ticking time bomb that could detonate at any time. The Vikings offensive line and Adrian Peterson have seen a number of different defensive schemes, all designed to stop A.P.; nonetheless they have to be encouraged with the Saints permitting 4.6 yards per carry.

The strength of Minny’s defense is not in the secondary, however if the Vikings defensive line plays the same as they did against Dallas, it won’t matter again. If DE Ray Edwards brings it again, Minnesota has four legitimate run stoppers and pass rushers on every play. The affects of defensive pressure have been on display in eight playoff games and if they can shake up Drew Brees, possibilities start to open up.

This is the moment Favre yearned for and no doubt wants retribution for NFC title game failure two years ago. Teams that average 7.3 or more yards per pass attempt, against average passing defense (5.9-6.7 YPPA), after gaining eight or more passing yards an attempt in two straight games, are 37-12 on the money line the last five seasons. At +160, the Vikes are worth serious consideration.

Cardinals at Saints Preview

After surviving Green Bay in the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history, the defending NFC champion Cardinals will head to The Big Easy. This first divisional playoff game has all the makings of spectacular offensive display, with two of the game's most dynamic offenses and skilled quarterbacks going head-to-head.

Arizona (11-6, 9-7 ATS) is coming off an amazing offensive game. Led by Kurt Warner completing 29 of 33 passes for 379 yards and five touchdowns, the Cardinals were able to survive against Green Bay. This was the second time the future Hall of Famer had more touchdown then incompletions (in 1999 he was 20 for 23 with five TD passes against San Francisco when playing with St. Louis) in his career.

The Cardinals are the most offbeat team in the NFL that wins division titles. When coach Ken Whistenhunt’s squad has nothing to play for, they resemble many of the Cardinals teams of the past, playing inept football. While most experts and former football players say no team can just “flip the switch” and play at their peak, Arizona has confounded everyone the last two years and done just that in registering 8-1 ATS record when playing against a top-level team with win percentage of 75 percent or higher.

In the past, Arizona was among the most meager of traveling teams, however they are 7-2 and 5-3-1 ATS in last nine road trips, allowing 17 points per contest. Their defense was shredded last week by Aaron Rodgers and the Pack, but they are 6-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards play in their previous game over the last two seasons.

New Orleans (13-3, 8-8 ATS) after winning their first 13 games of the season, lost their last three and have a similar curiosity factor as Conan O’Brien as people want to see what the Saints will do next. Drew Brees was on his way to MVP season, but trailed off in the second half as opposing teams looked to take away the run and force New Orleans into more obvious passing situations and blitzed Brees more accordingly.

Historically, the Saints haven’t handled adversity well with 8-19 ATS in home games after two or more consecutive losses against the spread. Coach Sean Payton believes this team is better prepared for this spot, since they are 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS at the Super Dome the last two seasons and has scored 32.1 points per game.

New Orleans has to be encouraged going against the Cardinals defense, since their receivers are at least as deep and talented as Green Bay’s and Arizona has weaknesses beyond its main three players in the secondary. The Saints big play offense is 15-4 ATS when they gain eight or more net passing yards per attempt.

Bookmaker.com installed New Orleans as a touchdown favorite with total of 57 points, the highest such playoff figure dating back to at least 1988. Teams that have lost their last two games against the spread during the regular season are 13-5 ATS this round (this will include the Colts also) and the Saints are 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons. New Orleans is 6-0 UNDER at home after one or more spread losses.

Arizona is one two teams this weekend that drew the short straw, having to play a rested team on just six days rest and loses even more time playing the latter game last week and having to travel East. Look for the Cardinals to test the Saints soft run defense with Beanie Wells to open up the passing game. Expect Warner to try and hit big play early to help build team confidence. The Cards secondary has to have better idea scheme-wise and take correct angles for tackling purposes. The defensive line can’t let Brees stand in the pocket, otherwise these birds are cooked. Arizona is 6-0 ATS as an underdog and 8-2 UNDER after one or more wins this season.

New Orleans has to do what Arizona did last week, start fast and hope defense can hold up. Their offense turned uncharacteristically sluggish in November and December, especially early in games and this team needs a shot of confidence from the get-go. Coach Payton has to get Arizona defense off-balance like last week and keep them guessing. With Saints expected to be as healthy as they’ve been in a month, Reggie Bush and Robert Meachem are real keys against team that is 4-1 and 5-0 ATS in the postseason since last year.

Saints look to go heavenly 14-0

The Saints look to stay perfect when they host the Cowboys in a special Saturday night NFL Network contest. New Orleans has just Dallas, Tampa, and Carolina standing in the way of a 16-0 season, and although being the NFC representative for the Super Bowl is foremost on the coaches and players minds, Sean Payton and his team at least outwardly is embracing the idea of seeking perfection.

New Orleans (13-0, 8-5 ATS) will look to do what they do best, score points. The Saints score NFL-best 35.8 points per game and they have done so against teams allowing 23 PPG. They are still within striking distance of setting the all-time record for points at 36.8, set by the New England Patriots in 2007. New Orleans is 24-4 ATS when they have scored 30 or more points under coach Payton.

The Saints are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS at home, scoring 36.7 PPG. After years of being one of the most melancholy home franchises in the NFL, New Orleans is 11-2 and 10-3 ATS at the Superdome the last two years.

For this contest and the remaining other two, coach Payton would probably like to get more balanced offensively, as they have thrown 90 times compared to 50 rush attempts in last two outings.

Drew Brees is the NFL's top-rated passer, and he leads the league with 32 touchdown passes. Brees can go to four different receivers, all with big play ability and can hand the ball off to three distinct running backs that each have a style and unique way to be productive. Off last week’s win at Atlanta, the Saints are 10-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two seasons.

The sports bettor has to make a decision in the contest, spunk or funk? The Saints have come from behind several times in the second half to win games and Dallas is a December punching bag. After losing to San Diego at home, any talk of Dallas players saying December is just another month is like saying the Cowboys are unbeaten in June.

Dallas last month woes have gotten to them mentally. Though they still have two division games left on the docket, in a lot of ways, this is the swing game. Win at New Orleans and the Cowboys feel like Tiger Woods finding out Elin wants him back without a new pre-nup. Another loss sinks Dallas further into the December abyss and suddenly they have gone from looking like division champions to the Denver Broncos of last season. The Boys are 10-22 ATS in road games off a non-conference clash and as widely reported, 1-9 ATS in December games over the last three seasons.

It would seem logical for the Cowboys to lean on their ground attack, even after it combined for just 153 yards over the last two weeks, because the Saints have struggled against the run and rank near the bottom of the NFL in rushing touchdowns allowed (15). Doing so, however, still doesn’t guarantee that Drew Brees won’t find a way to drop at least four touchdowns on the board, because he can move the offense upfield faster than any quarterback in the league. Throw in Tony Romo’s history of poor play in December—he has a 16-to-19 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 15 final month games and Jerry Jones club at 10-22 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards a game looks about right.

Bookmaker.com has the Saints as 7.5-point favorites with total of 53.5. The New Orleans defense has been picked on and despite incredible offensive numbers; they are just 2-5 ATS in last seven games. The Saints are 8-1 OVER against conference opponents over the last two seasons. Dallas is going to have to generate a pass rush without DeMarcus Ware and they are 9-1 ATS after being burned for 250 or more yards thru the air. The Cowboys are 9-4 OVER as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

Keys to follow are the beginning of the game. Most of the Saints covers have been with fast starts and with raucous crowd, the Cowboys “want to” will be tested early. Wade Phillips will need big game from his offensive and defensive lines to control the game and Romo can’t revert to old ways of chucking the pigskin up for grabs against opportunistic defense.

With Dallas expected to blitz, the Saints immensely effective screen game applies. One aspect in the Cowboys recent losses, Miles Austin has been a non-factor, giving them no long threat.

At the end of this contest, the question will be – Who dat?

3DW Line – New Orleans by 10.5

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

New England attracting bettor’s attention as underdogs

With the exception of a game or two, the Monday Night football package has enjoyed a number of very entertaining contests. The excitement goes from exceptional to like a child waiting to open that first Christmas present with what is in store Monday night.

Two years ago, the New England Patriots started the season 10-0 on their way to perfect regular season record and had a prime time telecast against Philadelphia, in which the Eagles gave them everything they could handle, before they prevailed 31-28 as better than three touchdown home favorites. That was the first chink in the armor of New England all season and it would not completely manifest itself until they lost in Super Bowl XLII to the New York Giants.

Now the 7-3 Patriots head to the bayou in the role of spoiler, in the exact opposite situation two years later, trying to knock off the perfect 10-0 New Orleans Saints.

The Patriots (6-4 ATS) quickly put behind the notorious Bill Belichick decision against Indianapolis and jettison past the New York Jets 31-14. Tom Brady and receivers Wes Welker and Randy Moss are backing to tearing up defenses. New England is the AFC’s highest scoring offense at 29 points per game and they are averaging 37.2 PPG over their last five outings. They are 37-18 ATS having won four out of their last five games.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Pats in a shootout with New Orleans, as total is up to 56.5. This has not been a reason to back off the Brady bunch, who is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards per game and 7-0 against the spread if they face a team scoring 29 or more points per contest.

But as good as the Patriots are and have been, New Orleans (7-3 ATS) has been better this season.

Drew Brees is in charge of the top scoring (36.9) team in the league and best offense (420.5) for gaining yards. The Saints increased production followed the offense live and its running backs. New Orleans can pound the ball to control the clock behind Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell averaging 4.8 yards per carry (4th) against teams that allow 4.4. Depending on how coach Sean Payton sets up the game plan and how the flow of the game emerges, New Orleans can play different styles with equal effectiveness. The Saints are 10-1 ATS vs. AFC opponent with .666 or better record in the Superdome.

Oddmakers opened New Orleans as garden variety three-point home favorites, but the wagering public still prefers the Patriots big game experience and have bet the Saints down to 1.5-point choice, despite the 13-4 ATS record as favorites.

New Orleans has scored 21 or more points in 18 straight home games and is 11-1 OVER when the line is +3 to -3. The three-time Super Bowl champions are 10-2 OVER versus rushing teams averaging 4.5 or yards a carry over the last three seasons.

New England covers if they handle the New Orleans blitz packages. More teams have been using combo coverages on Moss, which has left a lot of room for Welker to work underneath and move the chains. This allows the Patriots to move the chains and sets up Moss for later against a secondary that is less than 100 percent health-wise. Expect the Pats to be more patient in the running game than normal, since the Saints have surrendered over 150 yards per game the last four outings. Despite rumored opinions of coach Belichick having lost faith in his defense, the New England secondary is playing a much greater variety of coverages than earlier in the season and will have to mix press coverage with different Cover 2 looks and run exotic blitzes just to keep Brees guessing, which could lead to turnover.

New Orleans covers if they protect the ball. In weeks 7-10, they turned the ball over 13 times and not coincidently, failed to cover three of those four wins. Brees will see different looks than he’s seen all season and has to exhibit patience. Coach Payton has really improved as play-caller, leaving out the “look how smart I am” plays that sometimes placed his team in bad spots in key moments of games. Where the coach has to be at his best is in the red zone, since New England is in the bottom third of the league in defending scores in confined area. The same holds true of Saints defense. Don’t worry about giving up yardage; play tough in the red zone. The Patriots are surprising below average in this area (21 TDs on 44 possessions), which is pointed out ranking third in scoring and ninth in yards per point.

Monday Night System – Play Against any outdoor road team facing an opponent that plays in a dome. (32-14 ATS, 69.5 percent L12Y)

“Who Dat?” NFL Sports Bettors Know

The New Orleans Saints are one of two unbeaten teams remaining in the National Football League and are 6-0. They have built a two game lead in the NFC South without playing a single division contest. That will change on Monday Night at the Superdome when they welcome second place Atlanta.

The Saints and Falcons have long played a competitive and entertaining head-to-head series. Each division in football has their rivalries. Most are regional in nature and in the South; nothing is bigger for professional football fans than this matchup. The stakes are higher than ever with both teams legitimate playoff contenders and possibly more.

In the early years, Atlanta was the dominate player and still leads the all-time series 45-35, however in the last few seasons, New Orleans has had the better of it winning five of six with four covers.

The term “Big Easy” would be an accurate description of how Drew Brees and company have piled up the yards and points. The Saints offense has totaled a league-high 427.3 yards per game, averaging 39.7 points per game. The scary part is they have done it every way imaginable. New Orleans has passed for over 350 yards against Detroit and the New York Giants and run the ball down the throats of Buffalo for 222 yards. Last week, after being severely gashed by Miami in trailing 24-3 on the road, all they did was outscore the Dolphins 43-10 the last 31 minutes of the game. The Saints have covered all their games this season and are 6-0 ATS after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored.

This is a big game for Atlanta who is 4-2, with matching spread record. Quarterback Matt Ryan has done a good job in his second season, with the Falcons averaging 24 points per game against teams that have allowed 21.3 PPG. Atlanta has stuck with the running game at 28 carries per game, however is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry. Astute football followers could see this coming since running backs like Michael Turner who carry the ball over 350 times in a season, typically see a fall in yards per carry by more than a half a yard the next year. Last season 4.5 YPC for Turner, thus far 3.4.

Atlanta’s defense is very dependent on the pass rush, since they pass a soft Cover 2 to protect their mediocre cornerbacks. The Falcons are 27th against the pass (250.7), which is bad fit for New Orleans offense and its multiple weapons. They were abused by Dallas for 37 points and 414 total yards and are 25-8 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game.

The wagering public loves teams that score points and make this team the only football game on television, it’s not hard to figure what way the public will bet, especially at home. Sportsbook.com opened New Orleans as 8.5-point favorites and by Sunday morning, the money had been pouring in raising them to 12.

The Falcons will be looking to snap a four-game SU and ATS losing streak in divisional road games and this will be their fourth road contest in last five encounters. The unbeaten Saints are comfortable at home where they’ve won eight of their last nine games ATS. In the last nine meetings between these two clubs in New Orleans, six have gone UNDER the total. The total of 56 is worth following depending on point of view, since the Saints are 11-3 OVER after scoring 30 points or more last game and Atlanta is 12-4 OVER as an underdog of 10.5 to 14 points.

The Falcons cover if Turner or other Atlanta running backs find some explosiveness, sorely lacking thus far. Miami showed for a half how you beat New Orleans, by being physical on the offensive and defensive lines. Controlling the line on offense keeps the Saints offense on the sidelines. Atlanta’s defense has to take away something, stop the New Orleans running game to at least force them to play one way. Gap discipline is vital and tackling effective is crucial. In the passing game, Brees has liked to go to Jeremy Shockey early, negate his catches. Matt Ryan has to look off Darren Sharper effectively, as he is smart and has great instincts in getting to the ball, work him underneath with Tony Gonzalez to keep him occupied.

The Saints cover if they play their game and don’t become too anxious before a big TV audience and facing a NFC South rival. Coach Sean Payton has been aggressive as play-caller and cut down on the razzle-dazzle. Brees is playing smart football and letting the game come to him, not forcing the action. He will however attack the Atlanta secondary on all three levels. The Saints are 11th in total defense and could stop Birds running game. Ryan is an accurate thrower, but not when forced to throw on every down. The Saints know their good and play hard for 60 minutes, something seldom seen in these parts. Monday night home favorites of nine or more on are 15-5 ATS run.

Monday Night System – Play On a home team facing an opponent that allowed 35 or more points in last contest. (18-4 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Week 6 of the NFL

This week of the National Football League season brings the top game of the season to date, with two unbeaten teams colliding in Norleans. The top inter-conference match has undefeated Minnesota facing a scuffling Baltimore bunch. Among the better division conflicts is Arizona at Seattle in the NFC West. Cincinnati id favored by more than field goal, which means a touchdown in the last 20 seconds to win and cover again for the Bengals. The rest of schedule is why the bye week doesn’t always work well and Tennessee and New England lost the coin flip.

N.Y. Giants at New Orleans 1:00E FOX

Three NFC teams have set themselves apart in the first five weeks, and two of them match up on Sunday in New Orleans when the Saints (4-0 SU&ATS) host the Giants (5-0 SU&ATS) in a battle of unbeaten teams. It will be a battle of wills, as New York has been the best road team in the league under Tom Coughlin, going 31-13 ATS, including 19-10 ATS as an underdog. New Orleans has developed a strong home field advantage of late though; winning five of its last six contests both SU & ATS, outscoring opponents by 14.5 points per game. The Saints have also scored 23 points or more in every home game since Oct. 21 2007, a span of 14 games. They are looking to break a 0-3 SU & ATS record in post-bye week games under Sean Payton however. In this head-to-head series, home team own a 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS edge in the nine meetings.

Keys to the Game-

Right now there is only one way to beat New Orleans, attack Drew Brees. New York has the front four wholly capable of going so and their secondary has quietly moved up the ladder to a top notch outfit. Brees is playing the best football of his career, but no quarterback will be successful without time. Defense end Osi Umenyiora will be facing backup left tackle, with Jammal Brown out, he must dominate. Look for Giants’ defenders to have loose lips to frustrate former teammate Jeremy Shockey with a steady stream of billingsgate and have him cause discord. The G-Men are 14-4 ATS playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

In case one hasn’t noticed, all the ESPN highlights about the Saints have been mostly Drew Brees passes. New Orleans is second in the league in rushing at 166.2 yards per game and coach Payton has shown remarkable patience is staying with the run, especially the last two games. If Pierre Thomas and others can keep their team in reasonable down and distance situations, Payton’s play sheet is more versatile. Don’t expect Brees to see what the Giants allow, instead the game plan will be to attack New York’s weaknesses, based on game film study. Defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant have to bring the pressure on Eli Manning and interior of the defense has to be stout against Giants running game. Try this, unbeaten favorites of three or more off a bye are astonishing 16-1 ATS.

3DW Line – New Orleans by 2.5

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New Orleans -3, 47

Baltimore at Minnesota 1:00E CBS

One of the most intriguing contests on the Week 6 slate is an inter-conference battle with Minnesota hosting Baltimore. The Vikings (5-0, 4-1 ATS) are unbeaten but begin a tough stretch of three games before their bye week. Under coach Brad Childress, they are just 11-16 ATS as hosts, including 3-3 SU & ATS vs. AFC foes. Another negative number for the Minnesota franchise is 2-9 ATS mark vs. good teams outscoring opponents by six or more points in his tenure. The Ravens (3-2 ATS) are 3-2 and head into their off week next Sunday. They have won and covered just once in their last four games on the road versus NFC foes. Baltimore is 6-1UNDER in its pre-bye week contests and the underdog has covered four in a row in that scenario. This is the first visit ever by the Ravens to the Metrodome, but they have won the previous two meetings both SU & ATS.

Keys to the Game-

The Baltimore defense is not in the Top 5, it is 10th in the NFL. The ferociousness has dissipated. To get back to winners circle, the Ravens have to keep Adrian Peterson running laterally and stayed disciplined to avoid cutbacks. Brett Favre has faced almost no pass rush this season, except for a few plays against San Francisco. Make him feel his age. Baltimore is 8-1 ATS this month after consecutive SU & ATS setbacks and should attack the Vikings in the deep middle and with TE Todd Heap to create more running room. Quit taking stupid penalties.

The Minnesota game plan will include going after pedestrian secondary outside of Ed Reed. The Vikings receivers were considered ordinary until No.4 put on purple jersey. Make Baltimore defend the pass. If Cedric Benson can end the Ravens streak of 40 times not allowing a 100-yard rusher, A.P. should be able to make it 2-0 going the other direction. Peterson will have to maintain ball security, with Baltimore constantly tugging. The Vikes have the top red zone defense (four TDs in 13 possessions inside the 20) in the league, kicker Matt Stover doesn’t figure to beat them booting field goals. Minny is 22-12-1 ATS at home off a win and cover.

3DW Line – Minnesota by 4
Bookmaker.com Line – Minnesota -3, 46

Houston at Cincinnati 1:00E CBS

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-1) are in rarefied air after five weeks, having won four straight games and leading the AFC North division. They are also 3-2 ATS in ’09, but 0-2 ATS as favorites, extending their recent mark in the chalk role to 3-10 ATS. Head coach Marvin Lewis opened as a 6.5-point point favorite in this one vs. Houston, with the line drifting downward. The Texans fell to 2-3 SU&ATS after losing at Arizona and are already three games back to Indy in the AFC South and come in to this one on a surge of 9-2 ATS on the road off another road game. Houston has covered four of its last six away overall. Cincinnati may be starting to regain a bit of home field advantage and comes in as winners of five of seven ATS as host. These clubs met a year ago in Houston, with HC Gary Kubiak’s team securing an easy 35-6 win as nine point favorites.

Keys to the Game-

The Houston running game stinks at 75.4 yards per game (30th). As proven last week, the Texans can move the ball passing, lighting up Arizona in the second half, however that is part of the problem, it’s very difficult to throw the ball consistently for 60 minutes a game, you need a semblance of balance to be thought of as playoff material. The defensive front has contained two mediocre rushing teams (89 total yards) the last two weeks, do the same against Cincinnati and Houston could move to 14-5 ATS as visiting underdog off road contest. QB Matt Shaub has to have complete game and the “Where’s Waldo” pass rush needs to reappear.

Cincinnati has gotten a lot of mileage out of new balanced offense and the longer they keep Houston’s pass offense on the sidelines the better. Test the Texans with Benson and determine how they will react. Do what everyone does, take away Houston running game. Cincy has one definite advantage in doing so, a terrific pass rush to make Shaub hesitant. Oddly, the Bengals are 0-6 ATS versus poor rushing teams averaging 90 or less yards game over the last three seasons. You’ve seen the Ben Stiller movies “Meet the Parents”, that sums up the Cincinnati snapper, holder and kicker on extra points and field goals.

3DW Line – Cincinnati by 2.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Cincinnati -5.5, 46.6

Arizona at Seattle 4:05E FOX

Seattle (2-3 ATS) hopes to head into its bye week at 3-3, but to do so, needs to come up with a second straight big effort at home. This week’s foe is rival Arizona (2-2 ATS), who snapped a five-game losing streak at Seattle in its Super Bowl season of 2008. The Seahawks are off the 41-0 win over Jacksonville, and looking to extend a winning streak of eight straight games (6-2 ATS) in pre-bye week games. They are on a 4-1-1 ATS run at home overall. For Arizona, now 2-2 after turning back Houston, this is the first divisional road game of 2009 and they were 3-0 SU & ATS in that spot last season. Overall, the Cardinals have covered six of previous eight road games. Favorites are 6-2 SU & ATS in the last eight battles of this NFC West rivalry, while eight of 10 meetings have gone OVER the total.

Keys to the Game –

If you or someone you know has a bad back, it just doesn’t go away, especially if you are being knocked around. If Arizona wants to be tied for NFC West lead at the end of the day, they must sack Matt Hasselbeck, something they’ve failed to do the last two contests. Both Cardinals wins are not a coincidence, protect Kurt Warner and the offense hums. Coach Ken Whisenhunt prefers to portray himself as tough guy. He better start living up to image and find a running that would setup play-action passing game, since Larry Fitzgerald’s longest catch is 26 yards. Open running lanes and Zona moves to 5-0 ATS as underdog.

Seattle is a better team with Hasselbeck. Like Warner, the veteran quarterback can pick apart secondaries and the Cardinals surrender a NFL-high 303 yards per game via the pass. Give Hasselbeck time, watch the results. The Arizona run defense is allowing only 2.9 yards per carry, nonetheless the Seahawks must keep trying and bounce a few runs outside the tackles with Julius Jones speed. The best way for Seattle to move to 11-2 ATS as home favorites is to do what they did last week, sack the quarterback five times.

3DW Line - Seattle by 4.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Seattle -3, 46.5

Tennessee at New England 4:15E CBS

Tennessee and New England were expected to be among the top contenders for the AFC title in 2009. Neither has lived up to billing. The Titans have been perhaps the NFL’s biggest disappointment, with 0-5 record (1-4 ATS) and on death’s door after the ugly 31-9 loss to Indy on Sunday night. They would love to head into their bye week with more positive momentum generated from an upset of New England (2-3 ATS). Tennessee has won six of its last seven pre-bye week games, both SU & ATS, but has only gone 4-13 ATS vs. teams gaining over 375 yards per game on offense. New England dropped to 3-2 with its loss at Denver, but comes into this one with a 23-7 ATS record off a loss under Bill Belichick the last several years. The Patriots recently won back-to-back homes games SU & ATS after going 3-10 ATS in their previous 13.

Keys to the Game-

This contest was chosen by default and Tennessee has plenty of blame to go around. Kerry Collins has thrown as many interceptions this season (7) as of all of 2008. With no pass rush to speak of, the defensive have made more mistakes than the Bank of America and injuries have exacerbated the situation. The running game is starting to look like the Detroit Lions when Barry Sanders was there, the occasional burst from Chris Johnson, with truckload of negative plays. The Titans are 0-5 ATS off a SU failure and have gone from the leadership of Cronus, to being banished to Tartarus.

This looks to easy, but when a team is down, step on their throat from the start. The Tennessee secondary has more communication problems than Sprint and Tom Brady and his teammates should attack them with abandon. No reason Wes Welker shouldn’t drive them crazy and Randy Moss exploit the Titans deep. If the Patriots jump out to big lead, this is a good time to start finding a ground game for the rest of the season. New England is 21-8-1 ATS in October and the defense needs to move the line of scrimmage backwards after permitting 424 yards, the most in 18 games.

3DW Line – New England by 14.5
DiammondSportsbook.com Line – New England -9, 40

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Matching Quarterbacks to ATS numbers

While scanning the internet, I came across someone talking about how they didn’t necessarily agree with an article that former NFL quarterback and current ESPN football analyst Trent Dilfer wrote about NFL quarterbacks. After doing a quick search on Google, found the article where the Dilfer broke down each NFL starting signal caller and placed them into specific categories.

If you’ve heard Dilfer on ESPN, he comes across pretty well, speaks knowledgably about most topics, however he’s not above throwing a bizarre zinger that makes absolutely no sense, which brings his credibility into question.

Articles like the one Dilfer wrote are good fodder for discussion since they are mildly controversial, yet offer interesting opinions. Taking what the former Super Bowl champion quarterback had to say and matchup it up against the realities of betting on sports, let’s see where the two worlds intersect.

Not surprisingly, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are rated as the best in nearly all facets of the game. One of the keys for both is unquestioned preparation and ability to analyze defenses and make adjustments in a split second. For the sports bettor, Brady is the preferred choice. The former Michigan man is 53-39-3 ATS as favorite. Though he and his team have gotten off to slow start, and few doubt New England won’t improve along with their quarterback. Off the loss to the Jets, Brady and the Pats are 18-7 ATS after a straight up defeat. The older Manning has never kept that same company and has unusual record. Possibly because the Indianapolis has been so dominant in winning AFC South over the years, they are overvalued by oddsmakers or these teams are just more familiar with the Colts, they can stymie them. Whatever the reasoning, Manning is 30-44-2 ATS in division games. Get him out of the division and he’s 66-48-3 ATS.

His next group down has Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Though only two games into 2009 campaign, Brees, despite not having typical NFL quarterback stature and size requirements, is head and shoulders above the competition. The New Orleans offense looks like the Patriots of the couple of years ago and the St. Louis Rams “greatest show on turf” from the Kurt Warner years. Brees has led his team to two 40+ point totals with incredible ball distribution. Though Brees is 26-27-1 ATS in home games, he’s 35-18-4 ATS on the road, including fabulous 12-2 against the spread mark as road favorite after Sunday’s wipeout in Philadelphia.

Philip Rivers has gotten better each year as quarterback and San Diego is now his team. Though he’s a bit too much of a chatterbox, as Dilfer points out, Rivers makes the hardest throws among starting quarterbacks, since Norv Turner’s offense is more vertical, meaning throwing the ball 15-25 yards down the field and he does so with uncanny accuracy. The Chargers have offensive line and defensive issues at the moment, but Rivers and Bolts are still 18-10 ATS at home and 18-8-1 ATS when matched against a team off a loss.

Dilfer’s next batch could be rated higher by others and not many would argue. Remember when Eli Manning was too casual about playing quarterback and didn’t work as hard as his older brother? At the time, all of us weren’t aware NOBODY worked as hard as Peyton. Eli has gone on to earn his own Super Bowl ring and is adroitly moving his game up several notches working with new receivers and having success. Eli’s calm demeanor helps New York be in the right running plays and at two-minute drill time. The younger Manning and the Giants are methodical on the road with 27-12-1 ATS record.

Remember how unorthodox Brett Favre was for years, his replacement is Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has two gaudy Super Bowl rings and will likely never receive the true credit he deserves until a few years from now. He’s the best improviser at his position, and keeps plays alive most quarterbacks would just throw the ball away on. He a money-maker on a team that isn’t given the underdog role too often and he’s 14-6 ATS when catching points. Here’s two numbers to remember about Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh is 22-12 ATS with revenge and 20-9 ATS in the AFC North.

Dilfer also likes the productivity of Donovan McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck as veterans. Both have become more injury-prone in advancing years. McNabb when healthy is 45-26 ATS away from home and Hasselbeck is 28-17-2 ATS playing in coffee-town.

In his article, Dilfer calls the next group “knocking on the door”. This is primarily young quarterbacks with promise, who have to take the next step and take their teams to playoffs and start winning those games. Joe Flacco did just that, but was more a game manager than facilitator. In 2009, Flacco shows signs of progress. Matt Ryan is similar to Flacco and has the look of being able to prevent Atlanta from going backwards and making his club a Play On team. Aaron Rodgers is only 7-11 and 9-9 ATS at Green Bay, but he needs pass protection and a defense that stop somebody to take next growth step.

Tony Romo is drifting towards enigma stage. Talent-wise he’s probably Top 5, but his decision-making is horrendous in the biggest games, not unlike how he performed in Giants game this past Sunday. Yes, the Cowboys are always going to be overvalued, but to be 21-21 ATS with the amount of talent surrounding him, not acceptable.

Jay Cutler could be another breakout quarterback, if he shows maturity on and off the field. His spread numbers make most bettors pale (4-17-1 ATS as a favorite comes to mind), yet his ability is unquestioned outside a select few in Denver and if he grows with an unproven group of receivers in Chicago, it might be what he needs in the growth process.

Most of the other quarterbacks are what they are (Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner and Chad Pennington) and aren’t likely to become better without protection and talent around them. Many others like Trent Edwards, David Garrard and Shaun Hill need a solid running game to be most effective.

This is a worthwhile read especially in a league so dependent on one player in a team game. Sports bettors are wise to consider the quarterback matchup each and every game as a possible difference-maker for spread wins and losses.

Week 17 NFL Betting Info

At this juncture we know the New York Giants, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Carolina and Atlanta are in the playoffs, with the latter two still not having a firm spots based on positioning. This means that seven positions have to be filled on Sunday and a total of nine need specific placements before we can say with certainty after the Sunday Night game, which teams are in or out. This week can be as tough as any for NFL bettors in the regular season with so many possibilities. For the sake of simplicity, we’ll eliminate what ties mean as possibilities in accessing playoff chances. Bookmaker.com provides the Week 17 numbers.

Miami at New York Jets (Jets -2.5, 43)

The Dolphins win AFC East with a win and the Jets win division with victory and New England loss.

Keys to the Game-
Chad Pennington can stick it to his former team, for not having faith in him to be playoff quarterback. Miami is 5-2 SU and ATS on the road and HUGE key to their success protecting the football. If they commit one or less turnovers, they will break the NFL's single-season record for fewest turnovers in a season. The Dolphins red zone defense needs to hold up one more game, already the best in 53.3 in stopping opponents from scoring touchdown. Can Miami overcome 5-15 ATS record in road games revenging a home loss? The Jets are long shot and they know it, but better to take somebody down with you. Brett Favre has looked every bit of 39 years old since the colder temperatures have developed and he has to have big game for New York to even have chance. The Jets are 9-3 ATS in season finales.

New England at Buffalo (Bills +5.5, 39)

New England win the AFC East with a win and Miami loss or makes the playoffs with a win and Baltimore loss.

Keys to the Game-
New England has gotten off to flying starts the last two weeks and can take Buffalo out of the game early with another quick start. Matt Cassel is playing exceptionally and the defense has looked better with stronger pass rush. The Patriots are 10-2 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less and must contain Buffalo special teams or this gets dicey. Bill Belicheck’s defense needs to harass QB Trent Edwards into mistakes, if they do, New England moves to 11-6 and 11-5-1 ATS in Buffalo.

Jacksonville at Baltimore (Ravens -11, 37.5)

Baltimore clinches wild card berth with a win or if Miami and New England lose.

Keys to the Game-
Jacksonville could be dangerous opponent for Baltimore, playing with nothing to lose and being huge underdogs. The Ravens will want to break the Jaguars will and have to take away their running game, while running the pigskin themselves with second ranked run offense at 150.3 yards per game. Baltimore needs to kick-start Willis McGahee, since he is true inside-outside runner, compared to Le’Ron McClain. Baltimore is 11-4 ATS on the season and is 8-1 ATS in home games off a road win since 2006.

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (Vikings -7, 42)

Minnesota wins NFC North with a win or Chicago loss.

Keys to the Game-
The Giants has clinched what they needed and might not bring best effort, but that doesn’t mean Tom Coughlin won’t have his team compete, especially with a week off. Minnesota must reestablish Adrian Peterson, who has been a bobbling machine in recent weeks. They need him to protect the ball better, yet not be too conservative a running threat. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson went back to making poor decisions last week at crucial times, the Giants are too good not take advantage of his mistakes. Jackson must be astute in the passing game. Atlanta only has 98 yards rushing, nonetheless had 32 attempts in the Metrodome, this can’t happen again against the Giants or they move to 15-2 ATS facing teams with winning records.

Chicago at Houston (Texans -3, 46.5)

Chicago wins NFC North with a victory and Minnesota loss or takes Wild Card with win and Dallas and Tampa Bay both lose.

Keys to the Game-
Chicago swept their three-game homestand, yet was far from impressive, especially in the latter two. The last two games were overtime wins versus New Orleans and Green Bay and they were out-gained 670 to 436 total yards. Houston came up flat after four consecutive wins and five covers in a row at Oakland. They will want to finish .500 and have best ever home record at 6-2. The Bears either will have to keep up scoring wise with the Texans averaging 25 points per game at home or cling to the ball with time of possession and ring up enough points. Chicago desperately needs a pass rush on what should be a fast track to offset the talented Texans perimeter game. The Bears are 8-19 ATS versus offensive teams averaging six or more yards a play and must come up big.

Carolina at New Orleans (Saints +1.5, 51.5)

Carolina clinches NFC South and first round bye with a win or Atlanta loss. A defeat and Atlanta victory sends them to the Wild Card round next week.

Keys to the Game-
Talk about your tough situations for Carolina! A victory means a week off, followed by a home game for the Panthers. A loss means playing on the road next week on the presumption Atlanta handles St. Louis, saddled with two straight defeats. This has to be accomplished against a live home underdog who has won four of six, with the two losses totaling six points. The Saints will be throwing the ball around; with Drew Brees chasing Dan Marino’s season passing yards record. This means Julius Peppers and the front four must bring pressure, with the Saints gunning for them. Though Jake Delhomme could likely hit a few deep shots with Steve Smith versus Saints secondary, Carolina would be better served to run the ball and limit their possessions. The Cats are 40-16 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 24 or more points a game.

Oakland at Tampa Bay (Buccaneers -13, 39.5)

Tampa Bay clinches Wild Card with a win and Dallas defeat.

Keys to the Game-
Tampa Bay should win this game by running the ball and having Jeff Garcia pick apart Oakland with short passes. Long time defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin should have fun dialing up blitzes against JaMarcus Russell. Only concern here is covering big number for a Bucs team that has lost three in a row. Maybe the Raiders 0-7 ATS record in non-conference games over the last two years will help.

Dallas at Philadelphia (Eagles -1, 42.5)

Dallas clinches Wild Card with a win or Chicago and Tampa Bay both lose. Philadelphia clinches Wild Card with win and losses by Tampa Bay, Minnesota and or Chicago.

Keys to the Game-
It would behoove an emotionally fragile team like Dallas to play well early against an Eagles squad that's sure to be fired up. Philadelphia has outscored opponents 82-50 in the opening 15 minutes. The Cowboys have to pick up the Eagles blitzes and Tony Romo can not continue to play like an average Joe quarterback. Defensively, Dallas had been solid until last week, they need to control Brian Westbrook and make Donovan McNabb jumpy in the pocket. The Boys are stellar 8-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. Philadelphia gave up on the running game again too easily in loss to Washington. With the Eagles wide receivers dropping seven catch-able passes last week, the receivers focus has to be improved no matter who is available. The defense has to harass Romo who has thrown one touchdown and five interceptions in two December meetings with Philly. The Birds are 8-1 ATS off a NFC East loss rival over the last three years.

Green Bay Has Covered on the Road

After upending Minnesota in Week 1, Green Bay will try for another win on Monday night at the expense of New Orleans, which dropped a heartbreaker to those same Vikings on a Monday night four weeks later. With the NFC North still wide open, the Packers (5-5, 6-3-1 ATS) have hurt their chances by losing three games by three points or fewer. A classic example is head coach Mike McCarthy’s team dropping a tough overtime contest to Tennessee one week and following that by losing to Minnesota by a point when kicker Mason Crosby missed a long field goal late at the Metrodome.

Despite the pressure of taking the reins from Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers has settled in quite nicely with 2,351 yards, 15 touchdowns and six interceptions in his first season as a starter. Rodgers also has three rushing touchdowns and has thrown touchdown passes to seven different players, including five to receiver Greg Jennings.

Defensively, Green Bay lost a key cog in the linebacker corps when Nick Barnett went down with an ACL injury, leaving the middle linebacker spot to A.J. Hawk, who along with the secondary, have been stellar against the pass, ranking #3 in the NFL, allowing 176.5 yards a game, and shut down Chicago in last week’s 37-3 romp. Needless to say, the secondary will face a stern test from quarterback Drew Brees; however have a couple of angles in their favor. The Pack has covered seven straight in dome surroundings and is 15-5 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.

A 30-20 win over lowly Kansas City saved the season for the New Orleans (6-4 ATS), who improved to 5-5. Unfortunately, capturing the NFC South crown is a pipedream, but head coach Sean Payton’s team feels a red-hot Brees could propel them to a wild-card spot.

When he is not yelling at tight end Jeremy Shockey, Brees has been lighting it up with a league-leading 3,251 passing yards and 18 touchdowns and should easily surpass the 4,423 yards he threw for a year ago. Another reason Brees could accomplish that feat is the return of wideout Marques Colston, who showed encouraging signs by snagging seven balls for 140 yards in the loss to Atlanta in Week 10.

The possible return of Reggie Bush from knee surgery is an added boost to a New Orleans rushing attack that averages only 91 yards a game. Granted, the Saints have been trailing in most games and have resorted to passing more, but power runners like Deuce McAllister (299 yards) and Pierre Thomas (238) have struggled in Bush’s absence. At least this season, the Saints have been marching home to victory more often with 3-1 SU and ATS record.

Bookmaker.com has New Orleans as jovial one-point home favorite, finally playing at the Superdome for the first time since Oct.12. Considering both teams have the ability to score points and have suspect defenses with weak elements, the total of 51.5 seems like a natural to go over, especially with these teams a combined 22-6 OVER after one or more straight victories. Nonetheless, there is a Totals system to consider- Play Under on any team like the Saints where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5, after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in weeks 10 through 13. The system is a slick 19-3 since 2004.

Green Bay covers if they protect Rodgers like they did last week against Chicago, not like they did versus Minnesota. If the offensive line blocks well enough for RB Ryan Grant to have success again, this opens up the passing game against Saints secondary that ranks 26th. The pass rush hasn't been as good as it was last season, but the front four has done a good job of deflecting passes at the line of scrimmage, which is important against Brees, who though talented, is mildly vertically challenged. Bat down a few passes to make New Orleans adjust pocket. The Green and Gold is 7-1 ATS in November.

New Orleans covers if they get pressure up the middle, since Rodgers has shown a tendency to hang onto the ball a little too long. The defensive backs have to tackle well and limit the number of gains over 10 yards. Get the running game going, testing what has been a vulnerable front seven for Green Bay. If Reggie Bush is truly ready, see how the Packers linebackers handle him is open areas.

This week’s Monday night system is to play against any road team that plays outdoors versus a home team in a dome. This system is 29-14 ATS, 67.4 percent.