Spartans vs Bulldogs Final Four Matchup

The first semi-final of the Final Four is the most unusual pairing since No.11 George Mason was matched against No. 3 Florida in 2006. Though we weren’t really certain just how good the Gators truly were until a couple days later, at least they were among the top 12 seeds in that tournament. This year, Michigan State and Butler are a pair of five seeds, which happens to be the lowest matchup of seeds since fifth-seeded Florida faced eighth-seeded North Carolina ten years ago.

Doing it the Izzo way

Michigan State (28-8, 15-20 ATS) is trying to return to national championship game and has had quite a journey. In this tournament alone, the Spartans have wins by 1, 2 and 3 points and “beat down” of Northern Iowa by a whole seven points. Michigan State players do deserve props for making it this far, since it would appear unlikely that any of the other three teams still playing college basketball would be here if they lost their leading scorer like Tom Izzo’s team did in Kalin Lucas.

The Spartans are 19-8 ATS in all neutral court games over the last three seasons and will have to follow the same formula that got them to Indianapolis. Durrell Summers is averaging 22 points in last three contests, scoring from inside and out. Raymar Morgan has more picked his spots, but made a volume of buckets when his team needed it most. Draymond Green is big body that is difficult to maneuver on either side of the floor and is among the reasons Michigan State outrebounds teams by 8.7 per contest. Korie Lucious has stepped his game taking over the point and though he makes the occasional head-shaking turnover, he’s been an exceptional facilitator and has a feel when to take the right shot. The Spartans are 15-6 ATS away from home having won four of their last five games over the last two years.

Bulldogs believe in the “Butler Way”

Cinderella doesn’t get to this dance scrubbing floors, which by why Butler (32-4, 16-20 ATS) is not a fairly tale. The Bulldogs have won 24 consecutive games (13-11 ATS) with a staunch defense, not having surrendered more than 59 points in the tournament and doing so just once in previous 12 encounters. This makes them difficult to beat as a coach that has faced Butler noted.

“They’re the best late-game defensive team I’ve played against, with switching and making all the right decisions. They’re really good in late-game decisions both offensively and defensively. I was really impressed. Everything they do is so solid.”

Butler is up to 7-3 ATS in the NCAA’s and while Brad Stevens looks like Tom Izzo’s unpaid assistant in charge of taping opposing teams games, this dude can coach. He’s put together this smothering help-defense and brings calmness, as you don’t see Butler players wide-eyed when the opponent makes a surge.

Sophomore point guard Ronald Nored said this, “If you beat us, it won’t be because you rattled us.”

Butler will experiment with four guards and Gordon Hayward against the Spartans to see how they adjust. This offense has given the Bulldogs a quickness edge which opens up the lane for different players to take their man off the bounce or run “pick and rolls” or “pick and pops” in isolation sequences.

This is close

DiamondSportsbook.com has Butler as one-point favorites, with total of 126.

Coach Stevens has a motto made for texting-TGHT- which stands for, The Game Honors Toughness. Butler showed their “onions” giving away leads to Syracuse and Kansas State, before bulling the neck and putting each team away in the final minutes. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less in consecutive contests and 7-1 against the number when seeded 5th to 8th in the NCAA tournament. They are 8-0 OVER on a neutral court floor when the total is 129.5 or less, however the crowd will be far from neutral with hometown team getting the support from locals.

Michigan State is 29-15 ATS in all their NCAA appearances over the last 13 years and is 8-1 ATS as a neutral court underdog of six points or less or pick and are 25-11 UNDER versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds a game on the season after 15 or more have been played.

The excitement swells until 6:05 Eastern tip, with Final Four squads off two upset victories like Butler 2-8 ATS.

Something old and something new in Midwest Final

Michigan State is back in the Elite Eight, trying to make their sixth Final Four appearance in a dozen years. Tennessee on the other hand is making their debut as one of the eight finalists in contention for the national championship. Each has endured the most unlikely of circumstances to arrive at this point.

The Spartans (27-8, 14-20 ATS) are battered, bruised and one other factor, still playing. Durrell Summers seems to have taken it upon himself to be the leader with leading scorer Kalin Lucas out. Summers had 19 points in the win over Northern Iowa (26 vs. Maryland) and he and his teammates still believe they have ways to go. “It feels great to be back," forward Draymond Green said of being among the last eight teams. "We've still got bigger dreams."

Michigan State has been thru winning streaks, injuries, suspensions and benching, yet continues to press on. "That's kind of enjoyable, to find a way," coach Tom Izzo said. "It's somewhat more rewarding than the last two." Michigan State has covered 21 of their last 29 Sunday games.

Tennessee (28-8, 15-17-1 ATS) head coach Bruce Pearl knows his team and knows his math which led to upset of Ohio State. “I told our team, 'It's our team vs. their six,"' Pearl said. "We were a better 10 than their six." For Vols fans and backers, the Elite Eight is a better number than the Sweet 16.

Wayne Chism and Brian Williams used their size and bulk to dominate Ohio State in the paint, out-rebounding the Buckeyes 41-29 and scoring 50 of their 76 points in the lane area. Pearl has taken a collection of players that could have folded their tent and disappeared when their leading scorer Tyler Smith was suspended for the year and three other players were disciplined for varying lengths of time, instead he sold them on team and different leaders emerged, leading to Tennessee on 10-2 (6-5-1 ATS) closing run. The Volunteers are 5-1-1 ATS in last seven matchups with teams with winning records.

Tennessee is a two-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total of 136.5 and they are 5-1-1 ATS against the Big Ten of late. The Vols will have to continue to play great defense and be prepared for Spartans transition game. Rebounding will be huge factor for Tennessee, as Michigan State is 25-3 SU (11-16 ATS) when they grab more boards than the opponent. Look for Volunteers to again work the ball inside where Izzo’s team doesn’t have a great deal of height.

The Spartans will need a complete team effort once again. Summers and Raymar Morgan need to be the scoring leaders and receive plenty of moxie from Korie Lucious and Green, who comes off the bench. Michigan State is 7-2 ATS in NCAA Tournament tilts and 6-2-1 ATS as a neutral site underdog.

Concerning the total, Michigan State is 7-3-1 UNDER after a cover and Tennessee is 8-2 UNDER since Jan. 31 as a favorite.

Whatever the outcome, the winner will be the lowest seed in the Final Four since 2006 when 11th seeded George Mason waltzed into the surroundings.

Michigan State vs Connecticut Wagering Preview

No, it is not true that the city of Detroit has been invaded by an army of Gumby’s or space aliens (though Michigan fans might believe so), it’s just the green-clad Michigan State fans have over-ridden the Motor City with the hopes their team can become national champions for the second time this decade. As coach Tom Izzo continues to morph into his mentor and predecessor Judd Heathcote, he keeps churning out Final Four teams, nearly at the same pace as the octumom.

There has been much discussion about what impact the huge crowd will have on the outcome of the Michigan State and Connecticut contest. In truth, the affect should be far less than anticipated and here is why. Because of the NCAA looking to expand revenue sources, they have set up new business model to play in stadiums that can hold 60,000 or more by centering the court itself. With your standard basketball court just under one-third the size of a regulation football field, the crowd itself is further removed from the action. Because the sound is less contained due to the size and a large portion of the crowd doesn’t have a rooting interest per se, this negates what would seem to be a big edge for Michigan State.

If you asked Connecticut coach Jim Calhoun if he rather play at Ford Field or at gym that holds 4,000 screaming fans tightly packed and rooting against his club, he would take the former.

Connecticut (31-4, 17-14 ATS) arrives in the Motor City 8-1 ATS in road games after playing three consecutive games as favorite this season. The Huskies main attributes are their ability to control the paint on defense and score easy baskets in transition. Hasheem Thabeet is the ruler in the lane, swatting away and altering shots whenever he is on the floor. Stanley Robinson is another player that plays help defense near the rim and generally cleans up what Thabeet can’t reach. Robinson became the missing piece when Jerome Dyson was sidelined, becoming more of a scorer along with his talents to rebound and play defense.

UConn scores 78.5 points per game on the season and is averaging 87.2 PPG in the tournament, including the 82 against Missouri in the Elite Eight encounter. Connecticut is 8-2 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more and follows the lead of guard A.J. Price.

The senior guard has a lot of responsibility. When the offense is running smoothly, Jeff Adrien, Craig Austrie and others are positioned properly to score and Price finds his spots. When the halfcourt offense becomes choppy or stifled, which will happen frequently against Michigan State, Price is expected to bail them out. If Kemba Walker can maintain the same confidence he displayed again Missouri, he could be wild card for coach Calhoun, however that seems unlikely since game should not be as free-flowing.

It took a couple of years, but coach Izzo knew and understood the changes in college basketball. His 2000 title team and many others he had were power teams, much like a football team that runs the ball and stuffs the run. Izzo later saw in non-conference play and in the tournament, this style wasn’t going to work and changed his recruiting to more athletic players, teaching them his principles. For a few seasons, he has players not willing to work as hard as he wanted and the results showed.

Things started to change with last year’s recruiting class led by Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers. These two were quick and contrarian to typical Big Ten guards and could run out on the break. Seniors Goran Suton and Travis Walton saw that this type of basketball could work in East Lansing and with Raymar Morgan, the Spartans had the ability to easier adapt to more than one style of play, which is why they are 14-4 ATS in all neutral court games over the last two seasons.

Michigan State (30-6, 19-13-1 ATS) doesn’t play the sticky defense of years ago, holding teams to under 40 percent; instead they just don’t allow many points. Throw out the non-caring performance against Ohio State in the Big Ten tourney and the Spartans have surrendered just 58 points per game in last 10 tries.

Betjamaica.com has Connecticut as four-point favorites with a total of 133.5.

The Huskies win and cover if Thabeet and Price in particular stay out of foul trouble. Connecticut can take away a Spartans strength being the second-best rebounding team in the nation (regular season). They are 8-2 ATS in road games versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or points a game and are 11-2 OVER in all neutral court games. If Adrien and Robinson score, the Huskies should be expected to advance to Monday night.

Michigan State pulls the upset if they hit their outside shots. Connecticut has shown they won’t foul much and the lane will be clogged. If Suton can step out like he did against Louisville, that has to pull Thabeet away from the basket, opening up lanes for others to exploit. The Spartans are 16-6 ATS as a neutral court underdog of six points or less and do a terrific job defending the perimeter, but since UConn is nothing special beyond the arc, the defense has to stop Connecticut’s mid-range game and limit dunks by their big folks to win. Sparty is 18-6 UNDER as an underdog.

In Final Four games the top seeds are 7-4 and 8-3 ATS, with the straight winner 19-3 against the spread.