July’s Good and Bad Baseball Pitcher’s

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

Firecrackers and the MLB All-Star game signal the month of July. It also signifies the start of the 2nd half of the MLB campaign. The key to each and every team’s fortune lies on the pitching staff. Can they sustain or will they fold like a deck of cards? Stay tuned. What we do know is certain pitchers love hurling this time of the season while others tend to get lit up like a roman candle.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of July. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in July team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each July over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with August’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Burnett, A.J. [9-2]
If there is one pitcher in baseball glad to see the calendar change it is Burnett (6-7, 5.25 ERA). For the month of June he was 0-5, with gargantuan 11.34 ERA. If you caught any of his pitched games, this is a hurler really struggling mentally. Of the 35 hits he allowed last month, 11 of them went over the wall. Burnett and the Yankees hope he turns around this month around quickly.

Cook, Aaron [12-6]
The Colorado pitcher is finding his groove after a rocky start (intentional play on words), lowering his ERA to 4.69. Cook (2-5) pitches to contact and his fastball has had more sink in the last several starts and if the Rockies are going to make run at NL West crown, they will need Cook to be cookin’.

De La Rosa, Jorge [11-5]
De La Rosa has been out since April 25 with torn tendon band in the middle finger of his throwing hand. He’s at Triple-A Colorado Springs working to get to big club.

Hamels, Cole [12-4]
He’s still only 26-years old, but the lefthander just hasn’t risen to the same level of excellence he achieved during the 2008 postseason. His 54-40 career record shows too many cement-mixer curve balls and change-ups left up in the zone. The Phillies bats have been quieter this season and Hamels (4.08) has to be better than 6-6 this season.

Haren, Dan [12-4]
Throwing for Arizona is not a comfortable position for starting pitcher. As a starter you fill like you have to throw a complete game since they have combustible bullpen. This has caused Haren (7-6, 4.56) to attempt to be too fine and he touched for 19 home runs and .282 batting average compared to career number of .253. Interesting to follow if he can retain July’s previous good fortune.

Johnson, Josh [8-2]
Johnson (8-3, 1.83) hasn’t given up three earned runs in a game since May 8, which covers nine starts. At 6’7, 250-pounds, he’s imposing figure and his mid-to-high 90’s heat jumps late, causing bad swings and misses. With the way the Marlins ace is throwing, he could be in for special month.

Lackey, John [14-3]
Lackey is a Texas native and heats up like the weather when it comes to wins and losses. He’s no longer the hard thrower that can go thru a line-up more than twice without making adjustments on the run. His 9-3 record is mixed with good fortune as his 4.46 ERA is run of the mill. In Lackey’s last seven starts, Boston has averaged 8.1 runs per game.

Lester, Jon [10-1]
The left-hander continues to quietly keep rising in the elite ranks of pitchers in baseball. His 51-19 career mark is among the best since 2006 and this season he been even more impressive with 9-3 record and 2.86 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .205 against him.

Lowe, Derek [10-5]
At 37, Lowe (9-6. 4.53) is no longer the pitcher worms used to fear, with opponents incessantly beating the ball into the ground for outs. The vast majority of outs Lowe still induces are still ground balls, but his command has been a little iffier in 2010, presently heading towards a career high in free passes. If he finds the groove, he and Atlanta should have another strong month.

Oswalt, Roy [10-2]
Oswalt (3.55) is heading towards his first losing season with 5-10 record playing for an inferior Houston club. Trade rumors abound for the 32-year pitcher, who would appreciate a change of scenery to recharge the competitive juices. If a team is interested in Oswalt, it should make a move now based on July figures.

Saunders, Joe [9-3]
Manager Mike Scioscia is known for his great patience in understanding the season is 162 games long and players are going to have ups and downs. Joe Saunders (6-8, 4.88) has been testing Scioscia’s resolve with a rollercoaster campaign. Saunders has been far more effective on the road (3.35 ERA vs. 6.18 at the Big A) and if he straightens out that part of game and pitches inside to RH hitters, he should have typical July.

Vazquez, Javier [10-5]
After a VERY choppy beginning, Vazquez (6-6, 5.16) is becoming the type of hurler GM Brian Cashman was hoping for. Vazquez has 3.78 ERA in last 10 starts and has better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Duke, Zach [2-9]
It’s becoming more a mystery why Duke (3-8, 5.49) stays in the Pittsburgh rotation. Yes, the Pirates are brutal, but do you really need a starter that opposing batters are slugging .322 against? This Duke is a dog. (As in “Here Duke”)

Greinke, Zack [2-8]
Last year’s Cy Young winner has had a rough go of it this season, with a combination of Kansas City bullpen failings and Greinke (3-8, 3.72) trying to do too much. He’s been sharper of late and might improve on this month’s historical record with a little support.

Harden, Rich [4-9]
On the DL with gluteal strain and is scheduled for a few bullpen sessions to start the month.

Parra, Manny [3-7]
Strictly a back of the rotation guy, Parra (2-5, 4.12) was returned to the Milwaukee rotation after they had nowhere else to turn to. His 3.98 ERA as starter isn’t all that bad, however this southpaw is being crushed by lefty hitters, conceding .380 BA.

Wellemeyer, Todd [4-8]
The Giants fifth starter has been on the DL since June 11 and according to team reports is expected to return to club in mid-July.


Doug Upstone of 3Daily Winners contributed to this article.

MLB Series Wagering- Boston at Philadelphia

It is still a week before Memorial Day holiday weekend but a matchup of the Red Sox and Phillies invokes thoughts of postseason baseball. These two squads have become synonymous when one thinks about baseball in October with their recent history of success and World Series titles. Because of proximity, Major League Baseball has made this an annual meeting and while it won’t carry the media weight of the New York subway series, the baseball itself is arguably better, given the talent of the clubs.

Philadelphia (25-15, +2.6 units) is again perched atop the NL East, leading the league in offense at 5.5 runs per game. If the Phillies have one weakness, it’s the American League. Forget losing to the Yankees in the Fall Classic, Philadelphia has issues in the regular season. The Phils are 10-23 the last two seasons when matched against the AL and have lost five consecutive series to Boston and are 4-14 taking on the Red Sox.

Boston (22-20, -4) is not in panic mode (at least not the front office), however they do have serious concerns. The Red Sox are in fourth place in the highly competitive AL East and are 8.5 games back of front-running Tampa Bay already. Boston has had their share of injuries to players like Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury, being out of the lineup.

Nevertheless, the BoSox are averaging 5.2 runs per game, which is third in the AL and sixth on the majors, however upon closer inspection they have been held to three runs or less 17 times. Compare that to Philadelphia who has 13 such occurrences and the Rays with 12. Using the other two division leaders as a benchmark, that is four or five potential swing games that could have been victories due to offensive ineffectiveness.

Boston has been one of the best interleague teams with a 38-20 record the last three seasons and sends John Lackey (4-2, 4.86 ERA) to the mound for Game 1. Lackey’s been hit hard, allowing 11 runs in 13 innings his last two starts vs. Detroit and Toronto. He’ll look to get back on track and Lackey is 19-5 UNDER in interleague action (team’s record) with average runs scored against him of 2.8 per contest.

Sportsbooks have Philadelphia as -141 money line favorites with total Ov9 and gives the ball to Cole Hamels (4-2, 4.29). Hamels has won his previous two starts and looks to make it three in a row for the first time in three years. The lefthander has been attempting to build his arsenal, adding a cutter. “I’m still learning when to throw it and how to throw it,” Hamels said. “It’s something that’s (based on) feel. It took me a year or two years to learn how to get the feel of the changeup.”

The Phillies will look to change ways for backers that enjoy sports betting, since they are 1-8 at home when the American League comes calling, yet are 12-1 at Citizens Bank Park after allowing four runs or less five straight games over the last three seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

This series will also feature hitters that are swinging the bat. The Sox J.D. Drew is batting .333 in his last 24 contests after slow start and has 17 RBI’s in previous 19 games. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia owns a .356 average in interleague play, which is the best all-time among players with at least 150 at-bats.

Placido Polanco has been a great fit for Philadelphia, especially at home, where he is batting .349 on the season. With him on base so frequently this sets up numerous RBI chances for Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. This is important since the Phillies are 20-6 when they score first and 5-9 when they don’t.

The middle game pitching matchup has Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-1, 7.89) facing Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 5.24). Dice-K has made four starts and in three of them has given up the one big inning which has been his demise. He needs to keep his level of concentration up like in the past, where he and his teammates are 8-2 as visitors against clubs with winning records.

Kendrick was on his game is last start, eight innings and two runs permitted against Pittsburgh. The right-hander has 2.57 ERA in his last three starts and his club is 5-1 when he’s on the mound at home.

Game 2 Edge: Philadelphia

The final encounter of the series looks like a complete mismatch. Veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (0-2, 5.31) will step into the starting rotation for Josh Beckett who is on the DL with lower back strain. Wakefield hasn't won a game since July 8, 2009, but don’t blame him entirely, as he left a contest on four separate occasions with the lead, only to see his Sox teammates cough it up. Oddly, Boston is 2-9 in day games this season.

Philly looks for the doctor to make everything better. Roy “Doc” Halladay (6-2, 1.64) hasn’t given up a home run in over 32 innings, but is coming off a complete game in which he made 132 pitches. The Phillies are 9-6 under natural light, however this might not be as easy as it looks since Halladay is 14-14 with a 4.28 ERA vs. Boston in his career.

This is the TBS Sunday afternoon contest at 1:35 Eastern.

Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia

My predictions for series haven’t been very stellar and it’s not a good idea to bet against a streak, yet the Phillies are due for bust out and would be expected to show personal pride. They have the advantage in two of the pitching matchups, with the opener a tossup and this Boston team has not shown to be as good as recent models. Here is a somewhat shaky vote for Philadelphia to end series drought over the Red Sox.

Series odds: Boston +170, Philadelphia -220

3Daily Winners Pick: Philadelphia

2010 Record – 2-4

May's Best -Worst MLB Starters

With Super Saver winning the Kentucky Derby, this signals MLB enters its second month of play. And with it a handful of surprise teams take center stage. The key to sustaining success, or lack of it, comes from the pitching staffs. With that thought in mind, Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com zero in on pitchers that will look to keep their team in the race and those that may pull up before they hit the wire.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of May. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in May team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each May over the last three years.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Beckett, Josh • 12-3
After a slow start, Beckett threw seven strong innings, allowing two runs on six hits and most importantly for him had 6-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in Baltimore on May 2, which is about how he normally pitches this month.



Carmona, Fausto • 10-5
Since his breakout season of 2007, Carmona has struggled with mechanics, but has been more consistent in 2010. If he keeps the walks down, he should again have a good month even on a so-so club.
Hamels, Cole • 14-3
The left-hander has allowed too many meaty pitches in the hitting zone, (35 hits in 30.2 innings). Let’s see if the warmer weather helps Hamels get a better feel for curve and changeup.
Kazmir, Scott • 10-5
The last few seasons of arm miseries has robbed Kazmir of some velocity. For him to pitch at previous levels, he has to more consistent in the strike zone and pitch deeper into games, with six innings high water mark thus far. He could make marked improvement however this month, since he has 19 K’s in 21 innings in 2010.
Lilly, Ted • 12-6
The soft-tossing lefty has had one good and one bad outing in his return from the DL. In his second start, he lacked the usual bite on his breaking stuff and got racked. May is usually a solid month from Lilly, expect him to come thru.
Padilla, Vicente • 11-4
Vicente Padilla's right-elbow soreness should keep him out until at least the end of May, manager Joe Torre said Sunday. "He's better, he's feeling better, but not having thrown for a while, I don't see him helping us this month," Torre said. "That's not anything, I think, unusual."
Perez, Oliver • 8-4
Off their recent eight-game winning streak, the Mets could use Perez to have another good May to help their cause. Ability-wise Perez is a No.2-3 starter, but he too often can’t find the plate (14 walks in 20.2 innings this year). Certainly capable of big month.
Santana, Johan • 11-5
Santana’s first start of May was forgettable, being rocked by the Phillies. That however is not the norm and it is wiser to presume he bounces back to form and wins a number of games with normal run support.
Wellemeyer, Todd • 9-4
He’s the fifth starter on a deep staff in San Francisco. His early results have been below average, with but a couple of off days early in the month, Wellemeyer came out of the bullpen on May 2 and allowed no runs in three innings. Maybe this helps turn him around for May.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Davis, Doug • 4-10
Milwaukee took a flyer on Davis hoping he could at least be .500 pitcher. To date 8.87 ERA with no wins and has permitted 38 base bits in just 22.1 innings, ugh!
Lohse, Kyle • 5-11
Another reclamation project for the Cardinals brilliant pitching coach Dave Duncan. Doesn’t hit the 90’s much anymore with fastball, but Duncan has him using two-seam fastball which he sinks. When his slider and curve are not working, will get tattooed.
Meche, Gil • 6-12
Was supposed to be the ace in Kansas City coming over from Seattle and has been anything but. Meche has 10.13 ERA this season and he usually pitches worse in May, yikes!
Silva, Carlos • 3-10
Essentially innings-eater most of his career. Has started well with the Cubs (2-0, 2.90 ERA) thanks to having control (21 K’s-6W’s). History doesn’t suggest he will keep it up.

Doug Upstone of 3DailyWinners contributed to this article.

Thursday Lineup

A clean 2-0 day here at 3Daily Winners yesterday. On the docket today we have a very solid MLB Trend for tonight’s game. With so few choices for systems we look ahead to Sunday with a 25-6 Totals System that yields two plays. Good Luck

What you I thought today- In reviewing different forums, the Dodgers are being chosen by about a 70-30 rate to win Game 1, which surprises me honestly. I have no opinion on the game myself, but Cole Hamels has owned the Dodgers with 1.64 ERA and if you read NLSC Preview below, you will find he loves pitching at Dodgers Stadium. Additionally, Philadelphia has fantastic road record this season. Color me curious.

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Free Football System-1) For this Sunday in the NFL, PLAY OVER on road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, being a dominant team, outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more yards a play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This Totals system is 25-6, 80.6 percent and suggests playing OVER the number on Denver and Giants’ games.

Free Baseball Trend-2) The L.A. Dodgers are 20-6 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season.

Free Hockey Pick -3) Greg is passing tonight, but a well respected NHL handicapper I know is betting large on the Washington Capitals tonight.

Guaranteed Play from Paul Buck tonight.

The Platinum Sheet is a terrific resource for the sports bettor.

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Dodgers and Phillies NLCS Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers were dismissed in five games by the eventual World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies last October and believe they have advantages 12 months later in their favor. Though the Dodgers lack a true No.1 ace, manager Joe Torre is confident he can matchup with the Phillies better by mixing and matching to situations and still have added depth to turn to a pitcher that was a starter during the regular season if his chosen starter struggles early.

In last year’s NLCS, Los Angeles started five right-hand pitchers. Expect to see lefties Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf in the first four games as starting pitchers to hopefully combat Philly sluggers Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Torre is still contemplating who the other starters will be, but rest assured he will put Los Angeles in the best position to win the series based on his history.

On offense, a year’s experience should be invaluable to L.A. Last year they were loose in sweeping the Cubs, but everyone but Manny Ramirez puckered up once the next round came about. Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp are the two most likely keys for the Dodgers offense; however the bottom of the order can also play an important role and Torre likes the experience from players like Casey Blake to deliver.

This is the Dodgers eight NLCS and first back to back in 31 years. Ironically, exactly half of their appearances in this round of the postseason have been against Philadelphia.

The Phillies are looking to make a historical statement with visions of becoming the first NL team to win back-to-back World Series since the 1975-76 Cincinnati Reds. Philadelphia in fact is the first National League team to make consecutive appearances in the NLCS since Atlanta in 1995-96. It’s hard to fathom the Phillies will shutdown like St. Louis did against the Dodgers in the first round, since they led the league in home runs, scoring and most extra bases hits. The quartet of Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, Howard and Utley were the first group of Phillies to hit 30 or more home runs in a season.

Look for Cole Hamels to be Game 1 starter. Though the lefty has not been nearly as effective as last season, he’s rested and loves pitching at Dodger Stadium. In three starts in L.A., Hamels has pitched 23 innings, allowing three runs on 15 hits, striking out 17 and walking just five batters. In his career he is 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA facing Los Angeles hitters.

Expect manager Charley Manuel to save Cliff Lee for Game 3 at home, which gives him ample rest and also makes him available for Game 7 on normal rest if needed. Manual will piece together the rest of rotation and expect Chan Ho Park to be added to the bullpen.

Based on the body of work, the Dodgers have distinct edge in the bullpen. Jonathan Broxton and George Sherrill have been lights out for opposing teams for six weeks. Though Brad Lidge picked up two saves in the NLDS, it was out of necessity, not desire. The skipper Manuel had used up all other options in both situations and played the percentages in utilizing Lidge and escaped both times. Has last season’s most dominant closer regained enough confidence to be called upon again, only Manuel knows with fingers crossed inside his pockets.

Offensive – National League
Runs scored Dodgers 4th Philadelphia 1st
Home Runs Dodgers 11th Philadelphia 1st
Slugging Ptc. Dodgers 7th Philadelphia 1st
Walks Dodgers 4th Philadelphia 7th
On base Ptc. Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 8th

Pitching & Defense
ERA Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 5th
Bullpen ERA Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 9th
Strikeouts Dodgers 2nd Philadelphia 9th
Walks Dodgers 8th Philadelphia 2nd
On base Ptc. Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 7th
Putouts Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 4th
Errors Dodgers 4th Philadelphia 2nd


Key Numbers- The Dodgers won the season series 4-3 and are 9-5 at home against the Phillies and 4-8 in the City of Brotherly Love the last three years. Los Angeles is among the best teams in baseball at home with 52-31 record and is 71-47 against RH starters. Torre’s club was only average in games decided by three or less runs with 59-51 record. Though playing in a weak division, the Dodgers are 20-6 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season. The Phillies were tied with the Angels for the best road record during the regular season at 48-33 and picked up two more wins in Colorado. Conventional wisdom has the Phillies being stymied against left-hand pitching; however a deep and versatile lineup is 29-16 against port-siders. The Phils have been much better in closer contests with 56-41 record with games decided by three or less runs.

Bookmaker.com Series Odds: Dodgers -120, Phillies Even

Planning on Winning Sunday at 3Daily Winners

Had a misstep yesterday with 1-2 mark and want to close the week on winning note. To do so have 85 percent system taking place in the Bay Area. Today’s Top Trend involves bad baseball teams, which is worse, keep reading. I’ll throw out my two cents (I actually will wager more) on Free Play. Good Luck

Thought of the day – While most people don’t believe the New York Yankees could lose four in a row to Chicago, don’t count me among them. The Yankees are playing very sloppy baseball, both physically and mentally and though C.C. Money Bags has good history against the White Sox, his recent starts have teams batting .317 against him. Mark Buehrle has poor history against Yanks, but you won’t see me betting against him on a Sunday at the Cell.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a scorching starting pitcher, with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. The pitcher is Cole Hamels, which means San Francisco could be hurting for system that is 51-9, 85 percent since 2007.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Washington Nationals are 0-12 on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season, losing by an average of 2.9 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) I’m as hot as anyone right now with 21 winners in 28 games (not bragging just factual) and I like Toronto to toast Oakland.

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Pitching Matchups to ponder

In the National League, two games standout Tuesday, one because of its importance and who the starting pitcher’s are and the other strictly because the two hurlers have dominating potential. These two contests overshadow the rest the other six games in the senior circuit and should be entertaining for sports bettors and baseball fans alike.

Houston at Chicago

The Chicago Cubs (52-45, -1.9 units) played liked they preferred first place, as Alfonso Soriano hit a walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 13th inning last night that allowed the Cubs to stay at the top of the division. Chicago has played fewer games to date than any NL Central team; however is three games clear of any competitor in the loss column.

Ryan Dempster (5-5, 4.09) comes off the DL today for Chicago, after missing just over three weeks with a fractured toe after jumping over the dugout railing to go on the field and celebrate a win over Milwaukee on July 5. Dempster has loved pitching at Wrigley Field and is 4-1 there this season. Bookmaker.com has established the Cubs as -110 money line home favorites, which suits Dempster, who is 32-12 at home when the money line is +125 to -125 during his big league career. (Team's Record)

He will go to battle against Roy Oswalt (6-4, 3.66) of Houston. Earlier this season, whispers were circulating maybe Oswalt was no longer a first-rate pitcher. In his last six starts, Oswalt has proven otherwise to his critics. The right-hander has 2.00 ERA in his last six outings, with the Astros having won the last five. He and his Astros teammates are 20-5 vs. a NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse.

The Cubs will be chasing a sixth straight win and are 47-24 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. This division battle begins at 8:05 Eastern on WGN.

Philadelphia at Arizona

The Phillies (57-40, +10.2 units) are thankful Arizona has a retractable roof in downtown Phoenix, since tonight’s game time temperature is expected to be around 115 degrees again. Philadelphia hopes Cole Hamels (6-5, 4.66) can regain late season form from a year ago and put some heat on the Diamondbacks. With the Phillies having won 18 of last 21 games, they will be facing one of the hottest pitchers in baseball all season in Dan Haren (10-5, 2.14).

Many have speculated Hamels heavy workload from a season ago has taken a toll this season, with a number poor performances and missed starts. The lefthander has looked better lately, allowing four runs in 12 innings in his last two starts. This will be a good test for Hamels to see if he really has regained prior form, since he is 2-3, with hefty 5.81 ERA on the road. In the past, Hamels and the Phils have feasted on revolting teams like Arizona (43-57, -16.2 units), with 13-3 road record against losing teams.

The D-Backs play a whole lot better when Haren in on the mound, winning 13 of 20 games, with the strong possibility of emerging victorious five other times if they would have had any offensive production. Haren showed a human side in his last start, charged with four runs on eight hits in five innings against the Pittsburgh, as he struggled with command. That was only the second time all season Haren surrendered more than three runs, his first such outing since May 23 in Oakland.

Haren has been a shutdown starter, with 7-0 record after the opposing team scored five or more runs. (D-Backs Record) Arizona opened as a -135 money line favorite, but sports bettors quickly pounded that line and the Snakes are now -112. That doesn’t change the fact Haren and Arizona are 9-3 as -110 to -150 home favorites, with the Phillies 11-3 in road games after a win by four runs or more this season.

Haren will throw the first pitch in the desert at 9:40 Eastern and fans can watch in local markets or on MLB.TV.

Baseball Series Betting- San Diego at Philadelphia

Baseball in April is a lot like a horse race going to the first turn. The favorites don’t normally charge out of the gate and long-shots will frequently have the lead as the ponies disappear around the first curve. This happens in baseball almost every year and no better way to make this point is to see the San Diego Padres tied for first place in the National League West. Everyone expected and still expects San Diego to be one of the weaker teams in the senior circuit; however as major league baseball heads into its second weekend, the Pads are part of the biggest stories to start the season.

Owner John Moores is in the middle of a nasty divorce and due to California community property laws, Moores will have to sell all or parts of the franchise. This leads to taking a bare-bones approach to running the franchise, as was witnessed last year when San Diego won 63 games. This makes the Padres a collection of retreads and young players who may or may not be major league material. That’s not to say San Diego has no talent, with All-Star Adrian Gonzalez at first base, hard-working David Eckstein at second and Brian Giles in right. Names less known are Jody Gerut in center, who is hitting almost .290, Chase Headley is over the .300 barrier with on-base percentage of .360 and catcher Nick Hundley has better numbers than Headley.

A bigger reason why San Diego has started so well is pitching. They are seventh in runs allowed at 3.8 per game, with teams hitting just .235 against them. A remade bullpen without Trevor Huffman has an ERA of 2.40 and is five for five in save chances. Though Jake Peavy is still likely to be traded (sources now have Philadelphia as strong contender), tonight’s starter Chris Young (2-0, 1.38) has acted like an ace, striking out 12 in 13 innings and allowing only two walks. Though the money line has fallen considerably; Young and the Pads are 6-0 as +150 or more underdogs.

Philadelphia has had to deal with many distractions, the unfortunate passing of legendary announcer Harry Kalas and the wonderment of what is up with tonight’s starter Cole Hamels (0-1, 17.18 ERA). Hamels insists his elbow and arm are fine, despite the loss of seven-mph on fastball in first start in Colorado. Hamels incurred a heavy workload in winning World Series and many believe it has taken its toll. Don’t count Hamels among those that believe and pitching coach Rich Dubee insists he’s just behind from not being able to throw enough in the spring. Oddsmakers still favor the Phillies at -168 and the left-hander and Philly are 14-1 as a home favorite of -150 to -200 over the last two seasons.

Game 1 Edge: San Diego

This is will be a four-game series, which concludes on Monday, but as always the case in this situation; the first three games are how series wagers are determined. Last season the Phillies bullpen was as important a reason as any as to why they became baseball’s best. This group has not started as well in 2009, with a 4.97 ERA. What has been the bugaboo is surrendering seven home runs in 29 innings. The slimmed down Brett Myers (1-1, 5.54) was more effective in second start giving up only four hits over seven innings. Myers control has been improved, a little too good as it turns out. He’s struck out 12 with only two free passes, but six of the dozen hits he’s allowed have gone over the wall. Myers and the Phils are 23-6 against the NL West. San Diego counters with Shawn Hill (1-0, 3.60), who pitched fairly well in his Padres debut. Don’t expect great things from the right-hander as a starter, having not pitched more than 103 innings in five years. Watch the for line on game two, with Philadelphia coming into the series 22-4 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 and 7-1 on Saturday’s.

Game 2 Edge: Philadelphia

If the probable starting pitchers are correct, Game 3 might have a few runs scored. San Diego will start Walter Silva (0-0, 6.52), who hadn’t pitched as professional in the U.S. until he faced the Mets last Monday. Silva pitched well for four innings until tiring in the fifth and blew 5-1 lead. He has a good assortment of pitches, which is how he made the big club. Silva has to be right, since the Friars are 5-19 vs. teams whose hitters strike out six or less times a game coming in the City of Brotherly Love. Chan Ho Park (0-0, 10.38) doesn’t have a long leash one would imagine and has to do better than allowing five runs in just 3 1/3 innings. At 35, Park should be a middle reliever, pitching for the Dodgers. In his career he has 2.96 ERA at Dodger Stadium and over 5.20 ERA everywhere else.

Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia

The series finale has Kevin Correia (0-1, 4.09) taking on Jamie Moyer (1-1, 6.55).

Philadelphia comes into the series at .500 and Jimmy Rollins struggling at the dish batting .111. This is a chance for the Phillies to start making a little headway and building momentum. Though the pitching has been disheartening to start, San Diego is batting .236 as a team, which means they are beatable if you score against them. Taking this into consideration, have to play the Phils in series wager, despite the Pads hot start.

Bookmaker.com series odds: Philadelphia -300, San Diego +220

3DW Pick: Philadelphia

2009 Record – 1-0