2010 NFL Schedule Observations

The National Football League generated their annual buzz with the release of the schedule. Each home teams fan base immediately started speculating what their team’s record might look like except for Minnesota (they have grandfatherly quarterback from the South who likes to take his time) and Oakland (who doesn’t know the Raiders will have losing record). Sports bettors also like to think about the future, especially the prime time matchups. We’ll start with key games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights, all prime wagering territories.

Thursday feels different

The NFL took John Madden’s advice from several years ago and has made opening weekend a big deal, just like baseball does. That includes a top shelf game to whet the football appetite and Minnesota at New Orleans certainly fits the bill. The home teams are 7-1 and 5-1-2 ATS since this was introduced.

The NFL started sneaking in Thursday games a few years ago and had a more complete slate in the second half starting last year. In order to keep their partners from FOX and CBS happy, for the most part the games lacked pizzazz with mostly mediocre teams playing.

Not this year, bettors will see Baltimore at Atlanta (Week 10), Cincinnati at the N.Y. Jets (Thanksgiving night) and Indianapolis at Tennessee (Week 14) to name a few quality matchups.

Sunday Night Adventures

Since NBC took over the Sunday night package, sports bettors have made this an instant turnaround scenario. This is mostly square action, with NFL bettors trying to cover losses or pressing wins seeking the bigger score. While neither strategy is recommended, no debating the quality of games this far out before the season begins.

Week 1 we have the traditional Dallas and Washington rivalry, almost always good theatre. A number of other excellent divisional matchups will take place like the Jets at Miami (Week 3), the Giants at Philadelphia (Week 11), Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Week 13) and the Eagles at Cowboys (Week 14). One other confrontation could be a ratings bonanza with Minnesota and certain quarterback, visiting his former place of employment Green Bay on October 25.

The Packers are also involved in other entertaining contests, hosting Jerry Jones club in Week 9 and making trip to New England for the first time in eight years on Dec. 19.

Week 2 will conjure up a great deal of intrigue in the “Manning Brothers Bowl” at Indianapolis.

Monday’s with Tirico, Chucky and Jaws

A good portion of last year’s Monday action was terrific, especially early in the year. John Gruden’s enthusiasm carried thru and he and Ron Jaworski talked football for three hours making the booth more true football fan friendly.

Their first assignment is Baltimore at the New York Jets, with Rex Ryan going up against his former team. Later that same night, San Diego makes another opening game appearance on MNF versus another division rival, Kansas City, where they are 3-8 ATS.

This season will feature 13 division rivalry contests, always a treat for the sports bettors with the most anticipated one being Philadelphia in rematch at Donovan McNabb’s new crib in Washington on Nov. 15.

There is only one non-conference hookup and hostility could be in the air if Brett Favre actually does return. Minnesota will visit the new Meadowlands and the New York Jets, which will down as an asterisk in his storied career and one Jets’ fans will not forget for many reasons.

Changes in the schedule

Roger Goodell tried to address the last part of the schedule to become more meaningful and all 16 games the final Sunday of the season will be divisional contests. While some question what Oakland at Kansas City and St. Louis at Seattle might mean, this writer applauds the effort in trying to make the end of the season not just several exhibitions that count in the standings.

In all, 28 division games will be played the last three weeks of the year (29.1 percent of the total).

The NFL has graciously stepped aside from the World Series for years on Sunday night’s in late October, but with falling ratings for the former national pastime, Goodell and the guys decided to make baseball’s life that much more difficult with Nov. 1 conflict of Pittsburgh at New Orleans.

A few scheduling observations………….

No team has a duller schedule than Buffalo. Besides no national TV games, all 16 Sunday contests have a 1:00 Eastern start time.

San Diego is notoriously slow starter, however anything less than 4-2 with at Kansas City, Jacksonville, at Seattle, Arizona, at Oakland and at St. Louis would qualify as not mentally prepared.

Cincinnati is seeking first back to back winning seasons in 28 years with fourth toughest schedule.

Kansas City will have Play Against sequences, with three pairs of two road games.

Cleveland won their last four contests a season ago and could start 2-0 going to Tampa Bay and hosting the Chiefs. The Browns close to the year is taxing. Three straight road games Weeks 13-15 and finishing at home with division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Denver has three consecutive road games in Week 13-15.

Houston has Indianapolis at home and three of next four games against the NFC East to begin 2010.

Washington was 4-12 in 2009; however the power of Mike Shanahan leads to five national tilts.

The Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints move to the role of hunted and first road test in at San Francisco on Monday night.

Dallas finally broke late season blues; however they could return having to face (@) the Colts, Philly, Redskins, (@) Cardinals and (@) Eagles in final five weeks.

Matt Leinart will receive a quick baptism as the Arizona starting quarterback again with three of first four games on the road.

The Cardinals and Detroit have three consecutive home games in Weeks 12-14.

The Falcons have a road game on Oct. 17 and don’t wear visiting uniforms again until Nov. 21 with three home contests and a bye.

Pittsburgh will play three home games and three road games without suspended Ben Roethlisberger and when he returns three consecutive national telecasts at the Saints, Cincy and home with New England.

The normally profitable West to East three time zone games have nine occurrences, with seven having a 1:00 Eastern start (10:00 Pacific for West Coast teams). This is usually the best value early in the season, before teams have traveled much and the Falcons have Arizona and San Fran in town the first four weeks of regular season.

The Day After

Officially took a 1-1 day on Super Bowl Sunday and we’ll search for better results the day after. Sort of a slow day on Monday, thus the Best System around happens to be on the NHL at 32-6. The Top Trend and Free Pick have a decided view point, see what you think. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- Congratulations to the New Orleans Saints for winning the first ever Super Bowl and the city’s first ever championship. The most striking aspect of the game was Sean Payton’s ability to be himself. Since becoming a head coach, he’s always been a risk taker and it worked for him again in Miami.

Going for the fourth down and not making it near the end of the second quarter and still being able to come away with three points to get the score to 10-6. The onside kick was a decisive play, that just as easily could have gone the other way (imagine the outcry had the Colts gotten the ball and score to take the lead to 17-6). Finally, the challenge that was reversed to give New Orleans a touchdown lead, which brought into question how the rule actually reads. Three decisions that could just as easily worked against the Saints, but if you are destined to win a Super Bowl, those thinks go your way.

Kudos to Drew Brees, 29 for 32 over final three quarters, as New Orleans literally took what Indianapolis gave them, with eight different receivers reading the Colts zone and running to area and coming back to ball for pitch and catch completions. This is the same Brees San Diego didn’t believe had the ability to win a championship with. The Chargers were probably right, it would have never happened in San Diego.

Gregg Williams’ defense was burned for 10 quick points and switched from 3-4 to 3-3-5, which created more exotic looks and made it tougher for Peyton Manning to be consistent. This defense shuffle ultimately set up the game’s winning Pick Six for the Saints.

The Dwight Freeney injury was a big deal since he was unable to use spin move and the Saints seldom had to double him, particularly in the final 30 minutes after his ankle stiffened up. In a world where instant coffee isn’t fast enough, Peyton Manning went from one of the all-time greats before the game to 9-9 in the post-season immediately after its conclusion by the talking heads.

Early reports are this might be the most watched Super Bowl ever and one of the most wagered on. Because so many books had exposure to the New Orleans on the money line, they either will show a slight loss or profit when everything is tabulated.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Hockey System -1) Play on any team against the money line like Phoenix, off a blowout loss by three goals or more to a division rival against opponent off consecutive road losses by two goals or more. The pucks system is 32-6, 84.2 percent.

Free Basketball Trends - 2) Fairfield is 0-8 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points over the last two years.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The LCC is solidly behind West Virginia to cover tonight with betting members 11-0 in their favor.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Super Bowl Sunday

Iowa State made three 3’s in the final 80 seconds I believe it was, preventing 3-0 day. The Best System follows one of the hottest teams in the Big East and it’s not Syracuse, in a system that is 81 percent. Sal has his top Super Bowl bet and today’s trends are more informational than anything. Plus, I share my SB pick and top prop wagers. Good Luck and enjoy the game and day.

What I’m doing today- I like the Colts to win the game, 34-23, but have decided to have a little fun and bets the Saints with the points and have wagered equal value on Indy on the money line, thus hoping for them to win and not cover.

Here are my favorite prop bets today.

First Quarter –Under 13 points
Largest lead of the game (16.5) Under
Colts rushing yards (95.5) Under
Manning completions (25.5) Over
Reggie Wayne – completions (5.5) Over
Dallas Clark receiving yards (69.5) Over

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like South Florida off an upset win as an underdog of 10 or more, in February games. The Bulls also get back their second leading scorer for a system that is 34-8 ATS, 81 percent.

Free Football Trends - 2) Not really trends per se, but interesting. When Dallas Clark catches a touchdown pass Indianapolis is 19-1 SU the last three years. The last three quarterbacks to complete 70 or more percent of their passes during the regular season went on to win a Super Bowl, can you say Drew Brees.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal of the Left Coast Connection bet the Colts on the money line.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

What are the Betting Possibilities for Super Bowl XLIV

The day has arrived, oh sure there will be a great deal of chatter, heart-warming stories and a blast from the past (which includes The Who), looking at the history of the game itself still to come before kickoff of No. 44, however for the most part, it is window dressing to prepare for party you are hosting or attending. The biggest question on every bettors mind besides the $10 prop bet on the coin toss is who wins and covers? For your reading pleasure, here are the definitive answers to those questions.

Indianapolis wins and covers IF Peyton Manning has time to throw the ball. Manning’s work ethic and attention to detail is well documented and given time, will pick apart any defense. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark were quiet in AFC Championship game, as New York had the best shutdown corner in the NFL in Darrelle Revis and game-planned to take away Clark, forcing Manning to look elsewhere, which he expertly did. Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter are two good corners, just not in the same area code as Revis. With DC Gregg Williams expected to blitz heavily (though don’t be surprised if they rush three and have eight in coverage more than believed with all the posturing), Manning will look to hot receiver and deliver.

The Colts don’t have to run a great deal, just meet their 23 attempts per game, to give New Orleans something to look at. As long as Indianapolis averages 3.7 or more per carry, that keeps them on balance for all down and distance situations.

Defensively, the Colts have to play their game. That means rushing Drew Brees to make one read and throw the ball, not allowing him time to survey the field and pick out a receiver for a bigger play. Indianapolis has to be stout in the middle, as this is where the Saints prefer to run. That would mean the names Gary Brackett and Melvin Bullitt are spoken frequently.

Indianapolis wins, but does not cover IF the Saints cover a few different aspects. Look for New Orleans to use various packages that include five and six defense backs, depending on down and distance. Coach Williams will entrust the underrated Greer can at least prevent Wayne from having big game and will use a corner to cover Clark, to nullify his speed and hope he can get underneath with safety help over the top. DT Sedrick Ellis has to be dynamic to shut down Colts running game to three or less yards a pop (something the Saints have seldom done) and be the key guy in creating pressure into Manning’s face up the gut.

A big factor will be the health of Dwight Freeney. He is Indy’s one true difference maker on defense and if he is at 50 percent or less or can’t go much beyond the second quarter, a big edge goes to Brees and offense, since they won’t need to double Freeney, putting another receiver out into the pattern or used as safety valve. The Indianapolis corners are beatable and given time, Brees could have big day passing.

New Orleans is money line play IF they are the more physical team. That starts up front on offense and carries over to front seven on defense. The Saints can create a push with the trio of center Jonathan Goodwin and guards Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks. If this threesome starts punching holes in the Colts middle and Brackett is making tackles five yards down field, head coach Sean Payton will be smiling and working his play sheet feverishly. Pierre Thomas is punishing downhill runner and Reggie Bush has been more physical, still having big play potential. A running game leaves Brees with countless possibilities in the passing game, short and long and if head coach Jim Caldwell wants to dial up blitzes, no problem for Brees to go highly effective screen game. The Saints will not be discouraged if they fall behind, as they have had a number of come from behind victories.

The Saints defense is maligned and justifiably so, ranking 25th during the regular season and being ripped by Minnesota for 475 yards in NFC title tilt. However, ask Brett Favre and Kurt Warner how much they enjoyed being hit by New Orleans blitzers, enough to where both will likely retire having faced them in last game ever. (OK, overstating the point but a great trivia question in future years) The beauty of a one game finale is coach Williams defense has less pressure, as what their real mission is to give up fewer points than what their team’s offense scores and who cares if Manning passes for 500 yards, as long as they win. As has been the case all year, the defense has to be opportunistic and create turnovers, likely at least three. New Orleans has forced 46 takeaways this season in 18 games and will have a few defensive wrinkles Manning has not seen and has to hope they can keep the Colts in from of them. If this plan is completed, Who Dat will mean Super Bowl champions.

Which way does the total go? Most experts are figuring a shootout with the two premier quarterbacks this season; each is well-armed with a myriad of weapons and defenses that have as many questions as answers. Nerves and the feeling out process plays a big role in the first quarter, as 10 of the last 11 Super Bowls have seen 10 or fewer points in the opening 15 minutes, with seven of those being 3-0 or no score. Typically, once the players and coaches have made adjustments, the offenses start to sizzle. Given the circumstances and how these offenses can perform, points in the final 45 minutes should add up quickly.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Indianapolis as five-point favorite with total of 56.5. Enjoy the game.

Is Pointspread for Super Bowl XLIV?

Any coach past or present will tell you the game of football is about two things, blocking and tackling. While that is absolutely true in its simplest form, Super Bowl XLIV is completely different from its past with the possible exception of just a handful of contests for the Lombardi Trophy. Start with the total of this Roman numeral confrontation. The total of 56.5 is the highest ever, surpassing the Giants and New England figure of 54 points two years ago. This number could well come down by game time this Sunday; nevertheless it stands a very good chance of being the largest total ever.

Why would this be, the NFL rules are geared toward offenses to score points. The two best quarterbacks this season are facing off in the Super Bowl and each organization has drafted in a manner to assure their pigskin passers have the necessary weapons to maximize their abilities and put pressure on defenses. This season, Indianapolis has averaged 38 passes per game and New Orleans averaged 34 passes per contest. For those old enough to remember, Super Bowl XII had the unbeaten Miami Dolphins as surprisingly one-point underdogs to George Allen’s “Over the hill gang” Washington Redskins. In one of the duller Super Bowl’s, the Dolphins completed the still one and only undefeated season, winning 14-7. In the contest, Hall of Fame quarterback Bob Griese was 8 for 11 passing, for all of 88 yards. Figure Peyton Manning and Drew Brees to have the attempts and yardage surpassed that Griese threw for on that day sometime relatively early in the second quarter.

After the Colts solved the Jets defense in winning the AFC Championship, most educated oddsmakers were thinking Indianapolis as three-point favorite against the winner of the NFC contest. However, since New Orleans was dominated statistically in their matchup by Minnesota, most thought 3.5 or four points would draw relatively divided action. With roughly 15-20 percent of the dollars wagered on the side of the Super Bowl by this past Sunday, the vast majority of the action had been on Indy, moving them to -5.5 points , but the Dwight Freeney news shoved to number back down to -4.5 or 5. In breaking down the two teams, is the number accurate?

Peyton Manning vs New Orleans pass defense

On paper this looks like the biggest mismatch since Conan O’Brien taking on NBC. Manning has arguably been the best quarterback in football the last eight years, except when Tom Brady had a better New England club. The Colts have averaged 283 yards passing against teams that allowed 218, that’s almost a 30 percent difference vs. any defense they have taken on this year. Manning makes uncommon sight adjustments to blitzes and gets rid of the ball quickly. New Orleans on the other hand can be riddled by opposing teams via the pass. Take away games this season in which the Saints faced teams who preferred to run like Carolina, Detroit, Buffalo, Miami and the Jets, and the New Orleans secondary surrendered 277.6 yards in the 12 other contests or roughly what the Colts totaled all season. Granted, some the yardage allowed was after New Orleans had built big leads in several early games, but there were a number of late season contests in which they were also torched.

Nobody in football makes better in-game adjustments than Manning and his offensive coordinator Tom Moore and nobody this season did a better job in stopping opposing teams by forcing turnovers than the Saints. Defensive coordinator Greg Williams is on record as saying how they attacked Brett Favre is similar to how they want to get after Manning. The Jets had Darrelle Revis to at least take away Reggie Wayne and they did a good job in limiting Dallas Clark. It does not appear Manning will face those same obstacles against Saints secondary.

Spread Differential – Indianapolis -7

Drew Brees vs Indianapolis pass defense

Brees might not have All-Pro type receivers like Manning has in Wayne and Clark; however he has a stable full any Kentucky thoroughbred barn would be proud of. No team in professional football had a more diverse passing attack than New Orleans. The Saints had seven different players catch 35 balls or more during the regular season. Coach Sean Payton has set up offense very much like a basketball team that has exceptional depth and has the skill to score points. Only Manning has the ability to scan the field as quickly to find an open receiver as Brees, who also has keen understanding of taking what the offense gives as well as wanting to dictate the tempo to keep the defense guessing. The Colts are better equipped to limit or contain the New Orleans passing game. Bookend defensive ends Freeney and Robert Mathis can bring a heap of trouble off the edges. Freeney in particular is going to demand a double team, unless his troubled ankle proves otherwise, as normal backup tackle Jermon Bushrod is not equipped to make this a solo project. Mathis’ edge over right tackle Jon Stinchcomb isn’t as definitive; just the same the Colts DE is the better player. Antoine Beathea is an emerging star at safety for the Colts, with the rest of the secondary somewhat dependant on what happens up front.

Spread Differential – New Orleans -3

Indianapolis running game vs. New Orleans front seven

For two teams in the Super Bowl, this is one area that is about as unusual as you will find. The Colts running game is reminiscent of Bill Walsh’s and Joe Montana’s first winning Super Bowl team from the 1982 season. The 49ers were a pure passing team and ran the ball just to give the defense something to preoccupy from time to time. The Indianapolis front office had not been impressed with Joseph Addai since they won the Super Bowl in 2006 season and drafted Donald Brown from Connecticut. Addai doesn’t hit the edges as well on the stretch plays, working better between the B-gaps and making cuts. Indy posts a laughable 3.5 yards per carry against teams that permitted 4.1. The offense line seldom gets a chance to go out and drive block, however does appear less potent in this aspect of the game from the Super Bowl team from three years ago. Beyond Sedrick Ellis, the Saints defense front absorbs more punishment than it creates. New Orleans gives up 4.6 yards per carry, since their linebackers lack extensive speed to quickly fill gaps. It would seem Indianapolis could do business here, but has shown no inclination to commit to the run, rushing over 100 yards twice on last 12 contests. Expect the Colts to be satisfied carrying the ball their usual 23 times and leave it to their MVP to close the deal.

Spread Differential – Even

New Orleans running game vs Indianapolis front seven

Besides turnovers, if the Who Dats are going to upset the Colts, this is where it has to come from. Guards Carl Nicks, Jahri Evans and center Jonathan Goodwin must have special day opening up holes for Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Saints coach Payton needs to show restraint here and get physical upfront with the Colts. Gouging the Indianapolis defense for four to five yards a pop opens up tight end Jeremy Shockey and slot receiver Robert Meacham in the passing game. Payton may try the screen game, however few have had successful against linebackers Clint Session, Gary Brackett and safety Beathea, who can all run and are sure tacklers. Instead, as part of the running game, they should include trips (three receivers) to the short side of the field, with Bush standing behind them and sending him into motion to wide side of the field, hopefully drawing linebacker. This gets Bush in the open field for essentially a screen pass or comeback slant route underneath with blockers, more or less a run play in Saints offense.

Spread Differential – New Orleans -1

Special Teams

Reggie Bush gives the Saints a home run hitter in returning punts, however the way to stop him is what Minnesota did, have the punter sacrifice a few yards to increase kick coverage and get right in his grill upon the catch. Indianapolis continues to spend little time in this area and is strictly run of the mill. Where the Colts have edge is at place-kicker. Matt Stover came in when Adam Vinateri was injured. The 42-year old Stover will be the oldest player ever participate in the Super Bowl and has 20 years experience, including being the Ravens kicker during the 2001 Super Bowl campaign. Stover’s range is limited to about 45-yards, especially outdoors and has made 80 percent (20 of 25) of field goals in his postseason career. Kicker Garrett Hartley is young enough (23) to conceivably be Stover’s son. Hartley has made 24 of 26 field goals in his two years, but the pressure is all together different on the game’s biggest stage. Plus, Hartley has kicked in a dome the last two seasons and realistically is untested, though his game winner over Minnesota was impressive.

Spread Differential – Indianapolis -1

Coaching

It would seem these two coaches couldn’t be any more different with each facing unprecedented scrutiny for the first time. Jim Caldwell, to the chagrin of his team gave up 14-0 season and a chance for perfection to be in this position and it worked. Caldwell’s strength is in his beliefs and defensive. He altered the mechanics of the Colts defense, still playing a lot of Cover 2, but blitzed twice as much as his predecessor Tony Dungy. With young players at corner due to injury, he followed the Colts’ ideologies of players are expected to step up and perform. Low key leader who trusts assistants and his team.

Sean Payton’s arrival into the NFL showed a fertile offensive mind who couldn’t devise enough trick plays and use them quickly enough. Like many great offensive teams, the coach and quarterback become one on various levels and Payton trusted Brees from the beginning. Payton took some lumps the last couple of seasons, which has brought about a new found maturity, giving his offense a chance to succeed on almost every play and toned down the risk taking. As opposed to Caldwell, he embraced the notion of a perfect season when his team was 13-0. He makes no bones about playing to his strength (offense) and turned the defense over this season to Gregg Williams. His biggest task this game is not letting his emotions affect his play calling.

Spread Differential -None

Intangibles

There have been a number of teams that have won their first Super Bowl without having been involved in this maniacal environment, but having the experience is certainly a plus. Teams’ playing in this contest for the first time against experienced foe are desultory 6-11 ATS. Though players say they understand, sometimes its months later in reflection they realize they were satisfied to make the Big Game as opposed to truly desiring to win it. Payton and Brees have the heart of an assassin, thus their preparation and desire is predicated on going home champions. The city of New Orleans, with all that has happened once Hurricane Katrina made land, feels like it playing with house money and welcomes the idea of their football team playing for the city’s first championship, instead of craving it. The team had better listen to their coach and field general.

Though it seems Manning has been around forever, it’s still kind of hard to believe he’s 33 years old and is facing the possibility of having diminishing skills. He admits to sometimes barely getting out to make handoff on stretch plays and unlike Brett Favre, doesn’t spend much time thinking about his place in history in the NFL, he’s more consumed with winning and letting others determine where he belongs.

The Indianapolis team that was at this same location in 2007 was probably the worst of the four previous (2003-06) Colts playoff teams. That club found a hot rookie running back in Addai and the offensive line got into a bull-dozing mode and they plowed their way to championship. That experience gives the Colts an edge knowing what to expect and what level of performance is necessary. Teams favored by three to six points in this truly American game are 8-2 ATS.

Because the New Orleans defense is decidedly inferior, they have to continue to force turnovers. The oddsmakers are telling us Indy is your winner 31-25, based on spread and total. The Saints need to force no less than three turnovers and convert those into a minimum of 14 points, since the offense would be expected to generate 14 to 17 points on their own.

With Manning and Brees rightfully garnering the lion’s share of attention, four Colts youngsters could have direct impact on outcome. Receivers Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie played like seasoned vets against the blitzing Jets, as each was primary target thanks to Rex Ryan’s defensive scheme and they passed the test amazingly well. The New Orleans secondary will have far different coverages, yet their ability to “come thru” will be no less important.

Corners Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey have given Colts fans a few anxious moments on occasion, but have played beyond reasonable expectations. They can study film from morning till night, but undoubtedly they will be faced with things they haven’t seen before against the Saints and every New Orleans receiver is big with good speed. If they think their quarterback gets rid of the ball in a hurry, wait until they see Brees. Their play under pressure will define how many points the Saints total.

Spread Differential –Indianapolis -3

Bottom Line - Having the best quarterback in the game who doesn’t make many mistakes, a better defense and better than half the roster having Super Bowl experience leads to figure below.

Cumulative Spread Differential – Indianapolis -7

Time to start winning streak this Monday

Got whacked good yesterday and look to rebound in a hurry. Paul Buck has a Free Play in the NBA. The Top Trend is perfect and involves one of the Big Monday games. The Best System is 84.4 percent, but you will want to read more. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – Though the San Diego Chargers have enjoyed success against the Indianapolis Colts the last decade, the fundamental difference in the coaching philosophies has been on display the last two weeks. The Colts have coaches that can isolate and fix a problem, in this case, the New York Jets blitzing defense, and make it work in their favor. As seen, New York picked up right where they left off against San Diego, sacking Peyton Manning for losses the first two series. However, OC Tom Moore, Manning and OL coach Howard Mudd made quick and effective adjustments, which allowed the Colts to take over the game.

As expected, Darrelle Revis took Reggie Wayne out the game and New York had a solid game plan for Dallas Clark. Instead, Indy started shortening routes and made the Jets secondary start chasing diagonal patterns across the field. Manning started doing more three-step drops and getting rid of the ball, something the Chargers never did.

The offensive line went from man on man passing blocking to more a zone wall, being able to catch or knock off Jets pass-rushers with greater effectiveness. Spreading the Jets defense out more effectively allowed running lanes for Indianapolis running backs. In the end absolutely outstanding in-game adjustments which set up the Colts for a chance to win another Super Bowl.

I’ve read more than few comments from Packers fans relishing Brett Favre’s untimely interception and while I agree as does Favre it was unfortunate throw, the entire Minnesota offense has to be held accountable for their failure to advance.

Simple-minded announcers will point to the fact that statistics lie when determining the outcome of some contests, but this game couldn’t be accurate from the handicapping perspective about the outcome.

First downs – Minnesota 31-15
Total yards – Minnesota 475-257
Rushing yards – Minnesota 165-68
Penalties- New Orleans (9-88) Minnesota (5-32)
Turnovers – Minnesota 5 to 1

Troy Aikman – Ending words with - in’ (ex. - tacklin’), lost track after 50 in the third quarter, sorry, had nothing to do with outcome.

I thought Adrian Peterson would have a big day, but his reckless style of running killed Minnesota. FOX had a number of great replays that showed when A.P. is cutting, juking or just trying to get into open space; the ball separates from his body, letting him become an easy target.

You can knock Favre, but if the other Vikings players do their job throughout the game, or the mix up on the previous play with 12 men on the field hadn’t cost Minnesota five yards, where a running play could have still been in order for field under 50 yards, who knows. I’m not a Favre apologist, I’ve been as tough on him as anyone for all his antics the last several years, but I admired his courage, since I don’t think many quarterbacks could have taken the punishment he did and still finish the game, let alone having a chance to win in OT.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On a good shooting team like Denver (45.5-47.5 percent) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5 percent) past the midpoint of the season, after three straight games attempting 10 or more free throws than opponent. I really like this 27-5 ATS system, however no Carmelo at least has me leery.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Kansas is 11-0 ATS playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last two seasons, winning by 14.5 points a contest.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Paul Buck presumes Utah will continue to play well and Phoenix will keep playing lousy.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Jets at Colts Preview

Normally this time of year in professional football, everyone is talking about how important quarterback play is and how the teams matchup. Well, New Yorkers are often known for their bravado and as it turns out the Jets have the perfect coach to make believers out of the players and fans alike. Rex Ryan may not understand the mathematical workings of the NFL playoff system (after losing to Atlanta he said his team had almost no chance to make the postseason) but he’s able to rally the troops with the familiar “us against the world” refrain, used expertly by his father Buddy Ryan and George Allen before him.

It’s the clichéd “respect card” that has been reformulated in green and white by coach Ryan, winning seven of last eight (7-1 ATS) which has his players believing him like the pied piper. Ryan’s conviction had him making comments like New York should be favored for the Super Bowl and his logic is correct based on statistical information.

The Jets (11-7 SU & ATS) have the best defense in the NFL and attack opposing quarterbacks like a siege of numerous battalions. While seven or sometimes eight Jets are on the fly, a confident group of pass defenders led by Darelle Revis back them up. The Flyboys cornerback sticks to receivers better than Super Glue and helps the secondary provide better coverage than Safe Auto’s Justin Case. New York is 8-2 ATS on the road against teams with winning home record.

New York also runs the ball better than anyone in the NFL averaging 172 yards per game. Between the defense and running game that is the foundation of Ryan’s belief system, OC Brian Shottenheimer is on a roll as play-caller, protecting Mark Sanchez and calling the right plays which the Jets have been able to execute.

The Indianapolis Colts organization is completely different. They give away undefeated season in hopes of winning a bigger prize. The Colts (15-2, 11-6 ATS) let their play on field do the talking, however don’t for second think they haven’t been listening to all the huffing and puffing coming out of the Big Apple. A person not familiar with professional football might surmise the Jets are the favored and better team by reading newspaper and online accounts of the AFC Championship. Indianapolis has been to a Super Bowl in the last 39 years and actually won something, New York can’t make the same claim. The Colts have to be simmering in listening to all the talk.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Indianapolis as eight-point favorites with total of 40 and they are 8-2 ATS after one or more consecutive wins against the spread this season. Home favorites of seven to nine points in conference championships are 11-3 ATS in last 14 outings. While Peyton Manning will be blitzed extensively, he’s arguably the smartest quarterback in the game. His impeccable film study allows him to find and edge or two against any defense.

Expect the Colts to test Revis early with Reggie Wayne. Though Revis has stopped virtually every top receiver he has faced this season, Wayne is slightly different type of pass catcher, not a home run threat per se, his real expertise is running crossing routes, which is more difficult for any defender to cover. The Jets safeties are average in pass coverage and Indy won’t make the same mistake San Diego did with Antonio Gates. Because a tight end is often the hot read in blitzes, Dallas Clark will shorten his routes and with film study, see were the weakness are in the Jets secondary, look for him to have big game for Colts who have covered last four games as 3.5 to 10-point favorites.

The Colts defensive run numbers are not imposing; however they only allowed 17.7 points a game a Lucas Oil Stadium this season. Their goal is to force third down and five and longer all day long.

Sanchez has played better in each of two playoff games, but can his teammates protect from being too excited being 60 minutes away from Super Bowl? The offensive line will gain rushing yards with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene toting the pigskin, the question is can they score once on the Indianapolis side of the field. Gang Green is a splendid 7-3 SU and ATS on the road and riding the crest of emotion. New York’s defense will look to stone a meager Colts running game and try to contain Wayne and Clark and smack around young receivers Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon, causing them to lose concentration in the moment to stall Indy’s offense.

This game has Under written all over it and the line has dropped precipitously from opening 41points. The Colts are 37-21 UNDER when they rush for 50 to 75 yards, which is a distinct possibility and the Jets are 22-9 UNDER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt. A system to consider is playing on home teams when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points and they out-score opponents by seven or more points a game, after allowing nine points or less last game. (29-8)

Are Jets and Vikings good Money Line plays?

Both New York and Minnesota are road underdogs this upcoming Sunday, yet each in their own way has proven to be a valuable play for the sports bettors. The postseason tournament has revisited yesteryear this season, as the two top seeds from each conference advanced to the conference titles games for the first time since 2004. However, if history has shown us anything, the higher seeded favorite not only fails to cover, but they lose outright.

The last time two top seeds made it to the Super Bowl was the season of 1993. Since that time, on seven different occasions a matchup of the best from the NFC and AFC could have happened and not once did this occur. Betting on No.1 leaves a nasty mark at 5-9 against the spread with seven outright losers, six from the AFC.

Confident New York rolling

The Jets are the bigger underdog at 7.5-points at Bookmaker.com and are +280 on the money line. Indianapolis has nobody to blame but themselves for ending up with this opponent who really believes in itself.

The Colts pulled many of the their top players against the Jets in Week 16 and New York stormed to 26-6 second half, providing the momentum they needed to start winning. Make no mistake, coach Rex Ryan has this team believing they are every bit as good as the 85’ Bears and 2000 Ravens, both defensive-oriented teams that won Super Bowls.

In analyzing the rosters of the two teams, take away Peyton Manning; a case could be made the Jets have a better starting roster. The Colts offensive line is merely average with Indy have no running game to speak of, saved by Manning’s ability to get rid the ball. No doubt Manning has the skill to pick apart any defense, but this is unique Jets D, who creates relentless pressure from every angle imaginable and whose job this week is to make Manning miserable, which could lead to bad throws and possible picks.

The Jets are going to run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, as the duo along with a talented offensive line averages 4.5 yards per carry on 38 attempts per contest. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has played smartly in recent weeks and his confidence has been growing, making better throws especially once the second half arrives.

NFL playoff football has evolved into getting hot at the right time. The Flyboys have won and covered seven of eight and don’t worry about playing a third straight game on the road, the Giants and Steelers have won Super Bowls in the last four years doing so.

Strong defensive teams allowing 14-18 points per game, against teams that allow 18 to 23 points per contest, after allowing 17 points or less in three straight times, are 44-18 on the money line.

Minnesota is Favre-ulous

It was a little shocking to see New Orleans as four-point favorites over Minnesota, since the Vikings appear to have a decidedly better defense. That said the Vikings have not been nearly as good away from the Metrodome this season with .500 record SU and ATS and haven’t won or covered a road game since Nov. 1 in Green Bay (0-3).

It would be foolish to dismiss Minnesota since this team is right where many thought they would be dating back to the middle of October. Brett Favre has been amazing. Scrap the grayish beard and flecks on the dome and he looks every bit the player that went to consecutive Super Bowls in the mid-90’s. Gone are the days of just throwing it up for grabs, trusting his arm along with coaches patience, trying to play Mission Impossible plays.

While New Orleans has offensive weapons all over the field, Minnesota crew is hardly second-rate. Receivers like Sidney Rice are explosive and rookie Percy Harvin is a ticking time bomb that could detonate at any time. The Vikings offensive line and Adrian Peterson have seen a number of different defensive schemes, all designed to stop A.P.; nonetheless they have to be encouraged with the Saints permitting 4.6 yards per carry.

The strength of Minny’s defense is not in the secondary, however if the Vikings defensive line plays the same as they did against Dallas, it won’t matter again. If DE Ray Edwards brings it again, Minnesota has four legitimate run stoppers and pass rushers on every play. The affects of defensive pressure have been on display in eight playoff games and if they can shake up Drew Brees, possibilities start to open up.

This is the moment Favre yearned for and no doubt wants retribution for NFC title game failure two years ago. Teams that average 7.3 or more yards per pass attempt, against average passing defense (5.9-6.7 YPPA), after gaining eight or more passing yards an attempt in two straight games, are 37-12 on the money line the last five seasons. At +160, the Vikes are worth serious consideration.

Ravens at Colts Preview

The AFC’s #1 seed is in action on Saturday evening, and hoping to snap out of a losing funk. The Colts won their first 14 games before losing the final two amidst a controversy of deciding to rest starters. While most players and coaches agree Indianapolis head man Jim Caldwell did the right thing in looking at the broader view of trying to get to another Super Bowl, he has left himself wide open for criticism if they would falter against Baltimore.

Defensively, Peyton Manning and Colts know the Ravens first order of business is to take away the run, which is not a big deal for them since they only average 81 yards per game on the ground anyway. This Indianapolis team can’t abandon the run entirely, seeking to keep average of around 23 carries per game. Where the offensive line really has to perform is in the passing game, protecting Manning against the blitzes he will face. They will have no excuse after the way Baltimore started at New England, slugging them in the mouth and the Patriots not responding. The Colts won 14 games, had 10-6 ATS mark and should know exactly what to do.

The Ravens (10-7, 9-7-1 ATS) didn’t lose seven games by accident, they have very definable weaknesses. The Colts figure to attack Baltimore on the perimeter, since their corners are not strong at keeping coverage, particularly on deeper patterns where they have to turn and run with receivers. Indy will experiment in the first quarter with Dallas Clark. If Baltimore decides to utilize Ed Reed in more single coverage on Clark, that opens the rest of the field for Manning to attack their greatest deficiency. If instead they let linebackers and a strong safety try and guard Clark, he’s too much of mismatch, which the Colts can exploit.

The Indianapolis defense cannot let Baltimore dictate tempo. Coach John Harbaugh has determined the best way for his team to win and it is as basic as it gets, blocking and tackling. If the Ravens three-headed running monster is in second or third and short continually, Baltimore sends Indy packing in first playoff game for the four time in five years and raises postseason mark to 9-3 SU and ATS. The blue-clad Colts are 13-5 and ugly 6-12 ATS in last 18 home assignments.

Baltimore can pull the upset, but they must stay in character and hit a few big plays. The Ravens have lost seven straight to Indianapolis, covering the spread only once, which included Nov. 22, 17-15 defeat as one-point home underdog. The Birds have manufactured just 11.6 points per game against Indy’s defense in this stretch. That means Joe Flacco has to hit deep passes or Ray Rice has to bust a long run or two. If Baltimore offensive can set the tempo, they move to 13-4 ATS in road games after gaining 150 or less passing yards in two straight times.

Bookmaker.com has the Ravens catching 6.5-points with total of 44. For many bettors Baltimore looks to be the play, given their strong defense and tough-minded attitude. While those are admirable qualities, remember teams that won as road underdogs in the Wild Card round are 3-8 ATS in next outing. Similar to Arizona, Ray Lewis’ squad had just six days off and is playing their fourth consecutive road game. When does the well run dry?

Lewis and the defense will have to be lucky and good. They will have to disguise coverage’s and hopefully make Manning a bit anxious, blitzing on early downs and keeping eight men in coverage on passing downs. Baltimore is 13-2 ATS when they allow 50 to 75 rushing yards and 10-1 ATS when they rush for 125 or more yards.

In the teams last eight meetings when the total is in the 40’s, the UNDER is 6-2.

Unbeaten Indy looks to tame Jaguars

Week 15 of the NFL season begins with a divisional rivalry and arguably some very bizarre circumstances. The Indianapolis Colts are one of two undefeated teams still walking around the NFL and they have been known to shut it down, at least partially, once their playoff determination has been made. Jacksonville is fighting to make playoffs in the AFC, despite being outscored by 52 points per game.

The Setup

The game is critical on several fronts, as Indy has clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but doesn’t want to lose momentum while trying to get healthier, while the Jaguars look to keep pace in the wildcard hunt. These teams have played a very competitive series of late, and in fact, with the Colts’ tight 14-12 win in the season opener, the visitor is on a five-game ATS winning streak. Jacksonville boasts a 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS mark versus AFC South foes, but is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home finales. Indy is a perfect 6-0 SU & ATS on the road in ’09, outscoring opponents 30.5-15.0 on average.

Why Watch

In wagering circles, this game created a reported firestorm of activity. Most wagering outlets opened this matchup with Indianapolis at -5 and word spread late Sunday into early Monday that the Colts were going to rest many of their star players and walking wounded on a short week. Though not officially confirmed or acknowledged, there were internet reports of huge amounts of money wagered on Jacksonville taking the line on the Jags either to pick or slightly favored.

Colts head coach Jim Caldwell came out Monday and stated that his team won’t willingly “try not to win” and “those that are healthy enough to play, will on Thursday night and the rest of the (regular) season”. This seemed to have calmed the situation and Indianapolis is listed as field goal favorite.

As of Tuesday, Indianapolis had 29 players listed on their injury report, including such notables as Joseph Addai, offensive tackles Ryan Diem and Tony Ugoh and defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Jacksonville is far from 100 percent healthy and the status of cornerback Rashean Mathis, defensive tackle John Henderson and receiver Mike Sims-Walker remains questionable.

Coaches and players can talk about getting ready for the playoffs, but once the game starts and the player is dressed, the juices are flowing and they want to compete. Some Colts players may not play the whole game, however their mission at least internally is to build enough of a lead, they can come out and let the reserves finish off the win.

Another reason to check this game out is a rare scene; all the seats will be full in Jacksonville Municipal Stadium with this contest an unusual sellout in northern Florida. That only helps the Jaguars be that much more ready for a must win game to keep postseason hopes alive.

Why Wager

Colts backers know how good they’ve been on the road, and though this isn’t a big rivalry for Indianapolis, they have always handled like a big brother-little brother situation and wanted to keep Jacksonville from feeling too good about themselves. Indy is 21-7 ATS after two consecutive covers as a favorite the last 17 years and is 13-3 ATS on the road after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games.

The truth is Jacksonville is ordinary at best, but is one of four teams that are 7-6, fighting for that last playoff slot. The Jaguars are 10-4 ATS the last 14 times they have been a home underdog, which in part helps soothe their recent 3-12 ATS mark at home. Coach Jack Del Rio’s defense is wafer thin with all the injuries and was pushed around last week by Miami (352 yards) and they are 4-12 ATS after surrendering 350 or more yards.

Streak players have to love the UNDER is 8-0 on Thursday nights this season.

The Line

Bookmaker.com has the Colts by 3 with total lowered to 42.

What Happens

Indianapolis will look for fast start similar to what they did in 2007, when they jumped the Jaguars early on the way to a super easy 29-7 win as three-point favorites. That means Peyton Manning attacking soft corners and going for the throat in the red zone. After early season struggles in the red zone, the Colts have scored 17 touchdowns in last 23 tries inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. On defense, bottle Maurice Jones-Drew and make David Garrard beat you thru air.

Evidently Garrard missed the meeting on ball security, as he continues to put the pigskin on the ground when pressured. Coach Del Rio has to coach up the offensive line to pound away at injury-plagued Indianapolis defense. This gives Jacksonville best chance to pull upset and opens up play-action passing game. Defensively, force Manning to hit checkdowns. This strategy makes the Colts be more patient and forces them to drive the length of the field instead of hitting killer big plays, which the Jags lack the offensive firepower to recover from.

The Outcome

3DW ratings picks Indianapolis by 11


Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Wagering Info for Week 13 of the NFL

December not only brings the cold winds and frigid temperatures, but a frosty end to many professional teams playoff hopes. The New York Giants are among those that have to come up with a winner, especially playing rival Dallas at home. In a conflict Alfred Hitchcock would enjoy, it’s the battle of birds down south. For the Eagles and Falcons, it’s about finding healthy players to perform. Houston blew two leads at home to all but crush their playoff dreams, now they will try and do the same to Jacksonville on the road before all 30,000 Jags fans. Tennessee is living the dream and is halfway to finishing the year 10-0, facing unbeaten Indianapolis. Coach Bill Belichick has been served a piece of humble pie besides the usual pumpkin and will look to regroup in Miami to start an extended winning streak.

Philadelphia at Atlanta 1:00E FOX

The Eagles and Falcons are two of the handful of teams in contention for the NFC Wildcard spots, so a loss in this head-to-head matchup would be devastating for either. If history is any indication, Atlanta could be in trouble, as Philadelphia (6-5 ATS) owns a 7-3 SU & 8-1-1 ATS edge in the last 10 games of the series. However, most of those matchups were in Philly, evidenced by the fact that the home team is on a 6-1 SU & ATS run in that span. The Falcons are in the middle of a three-game homestand and are 6-5 after beating Tampa Bay. They are 7-4 ATS in 2009, including 4-1 ATS at home. The Eagles, 7-4, begin a critical two-game road set in this one, with the next stop in the Meadowlands. The head-to-head series between these teams has also been low scoring, with seven of the previous going UNDER.

Keys to the Game-

In this confrontation of attrition, Philadelphia has the edge, having worked through it. No Brian Westbrook, rookie LeSean McCoy has stepped right in and looked comfortable. Explosive DeSean Jackson out, another rookie Jeremy Maclin steps in. Coach Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have to work better in the red zone, as K David Akers needs to make appearances for extra points, not field goals. The Eagles too often have played to level of competition, with Falcons missing offensive firepower, go win the game in the first half and stop dawdling like last week against Washington. If they don’t, Eagles are unlikely to improve upon December record of 2-10 ATS on the road against non-division team with revenge.

Backup Chris Redman will make his 11th career start filling in for Matt Ryan and has to keep his head from spinning all the way around with the dizzying array of blitzes he is certain to face. Be confident, make the right read and hit the hot receiver. The Falcons offensive line will have to be a difference-maker against 8th ranked run defense. Yes Michael Turner is out and Jerious Norwood is dinged, but they have to create running lanes for plugger Jason Snelling to run thru or 4-14 ATS mark as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points is a distinct possibility. The front four has to step up to protect 27th ranked pass defense.

3DW Line – Philadelphia by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -5, 43.5

Houston at Jacksonville 1:00E CBS

The Jaguars and Texans both maintain wildcard hopes but it is getting late for Houston (5-5-1 ATS), who is 5-6 after losing to Indianapolis. They are now 1-4 in divisional games this season, including a 31-24 home loss to Jacksonville back in September. That sets up a nice spot for head coach Gary Kubiak’s team who is on a 16-6 ATS run revenging a loss where the opponents topped the 28-point mark. Coach Jack Del Rio’s team is off another horrible trip west, a 20-3 setback to the 49ers which dropped their record to 6-5. This starts a three-game homestand for the Jaguars (4-7 ATS), who are desperate to improve a 2-11 ATS slide in home games over the last season-and-a-half. Houston, who has played surprisingly well on the road, 7-2 ATS in its last nine and is also 5-2 ATS at Jacksonville since 2002.

Keys to the Game-

For whatever reason, quarterback Matt Schaub seems more comfortable on the road than at Reliant Stadium. The Texans score 26.2 points per game away from Houston and 21.3 at home. Schaub has the ability to help his team win three road games in a row, but must avoid throwing interceptions and fumbling like last week to give his club a chance. The Texans are 16-7-1 ATS off consecutive spread losses and have to lower pad level to contain Maurice Jones-Drew or he will run wild vs. defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry (31st).

Jacksonville is being dissed in spite of winning record, however when you have allowed 53 more points than you’ve scored, scrutiny is sure to follow. The Jaguars pass defense ranks 26th, but Texas will have third new starter this season at left tackle, which means load up on that side and pressure Schaub’s backside. The Jags are 1-8 ATS at home against AFC opponents since last year and can turn that number around by getting Jones-Drew started early in piling up yards and deflating Houston’s spirit. Jacksonville is really the team with something to play for and has to protect David Garrard, since they are 4-15 SU when he is sacked three times or more.

3DW Line – Houston by 7
Bookmaker.com Line – Houston -2.5, 47

Tennessee at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

When Indianapolis and Tennessee last met, the Titans were a different team. The Colts’ win in that contest sent coach Jeff Fisher’s team to 0-5, but since eventually dropping six straight, Tennessee (5-6, 5-5-1 ATS) has come alive, winning its last five games to climb back into playoff picture. This one, in Indy, will be their most difficult task remaining as well, and a three-game homestand is next on tap. The Colts (11-0, 7-4 ATS) have won five of last six games when hosting Tennessee, and are 4-2 ATS in that span. However, they are just 2-7 ATS in their previous nine as a divisional host and 1-4 ATS at home in ’09 overall. Looking to remain perfect, head man Jim Caldwell’s team plays three of its final five games at home. The Titans wrap up their divisional slate this week and are 2-3 SU and ATS vs. AFC South foes.

Keys to the Game-

Adrian Peterson might be the best running back in the NFL; nevertheless the hottest is Titans Chris Johnson. The former East Carolina star is the league’s leading rusher at 1,396 yards and is on streak of 125 or more yards in last six contests. Ideally, Tennessee would prefer Johnson to grind out consistent yardage to keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines, but going the distance for six is solid alternative. Vince Young is an incredible story no matter who decided to make him starter. Each game he develops another phase and could give Colts a headache if he leaves the pocket, running or throwing for first downs. Tennessee will be better prepared defensively having complete secondary back, which wasn’t the case in the first matchup. Frustrate Indy into kicking field goals and Titans could march to 10-0 ATS in road games after four or more consecutive non-losses against the spread.

The Colts may be 11-0, but the Titans are hot. Manning had four interceptions in first seven games, but has seven picks in last four. No need to give piping-hot club a reason to feel better about itself. With no Bob Sanders at safety, the job likely falls to Melvin Bullitt to “spy” Young. He has to be physical and remember to take the legs of the tall Texan to prevent big plays. Tennessee is only 4-13 ATS versus excellent offensive teams averaging 375 or more yards per game, put the pressure on their offense to match points by scoring on each possession if possible. Indy linebackers are mostly faceless; however they will have to be at their best to control the speedy Johnson.

3DW Line – Indianapolis by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line –Indianapolis -6.5, 46

New England at Miami 1:00E CBS

Miami’s (5-6 SU & ATS) playoff hopes took a crushing blow when it lost in Buffalo 31-14. They may be relegated now to the spoiler role, and will try to do just that to New England’s quest to obtain the AFC’s #2 seed in the postseason. For coach Tony Sparano’s team, it was a first divisional ATS loss of the year (3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS). The Patriots (7-4, 6-5 ATS) are 3-1 in division game so far but just 1-3 ATS. Their only loss was at the Jets in Week 2, which snapped a six-game SU & ATS winning streak on the road vs. AFC East foes. This is their second meeting of the season with New England having won the first at home last month, 27-17, failing to cover an 11-point spread. Favorites are on an 8-3 SU and ATS run in the last 11 matchups between these rivals in Miami, and the Dolphins are 2-5 SU & ATS as a home dog under Sparano.

Keys to the Game –

It was a rare sight indeed, coach Belichick waving the proverbial white flag in having Tom Brady take a seat this past Monday night in New Orleans. The disappointment was so profound, Brady felt compelled to issue statement - "the mourning period is over", this past Wednesday. This is not Patriots team of earlier this decade, yet they still could win next five games and possibly earn second seed, starting with win in Miami. New England has to let Saints loss go and focus on Ricky Williams, who has raised his level of play since Ronnie Brown went down, having at least 100 yards with three touchdowns in each of the past three games. The Pats are puny 1-4 on the road this season with two covers and better be ready to wrap up Williams if they expect to move to 40-21 ATS in road games versus division opponents.

Coach Sparano is emotional leader and a few times it seems those emotions have gotten the best of him in making questionable decisions that cost the Dolphins who have a thin margin for error. Having tricks and surprises is part of being a good coach, but taking chances for lesser rewards won’t have you beat New England. Joey Porter and the Miami defense generated six sacks last week, but none were important in the “clutch” context of the game, which led to Buffalo upset. The defense can sack Brady on first down, but if they allow him to complete third down pass for first down, it was all for naught. The Fins are just 5-16 ATS at Landshark Stadium since 2007.

3DWLine – New England by 6
Bookmaker.com Line – New England -4, 46

Dallas at N.Y. Giants 4:15E FOX

New York already won in Dallas in Week 2. Another victory over the Cowboys at home gets the Giants (6-5, 5-6 ATS) back into the race for the NFC East title. Currently Tom Coughlin’s team trails Dallas by two games in the standings, with Philadelphia sandwiched in between. The Eagles are next up for the Giants at the Meadowlands, so this is a critical homestand for New York. Both teams are 2-1 in divisional play so far in ’09. At 8-3, the Cowboys (6-5 ATS) face a brutal five-game season ending schedule and haven’t had a winning post-Thanksgiving campaign since 2004, with unimposing 4-14-3 ATS record in that span. New York is 21-9 ATS under Coughlin vs. offenses gaining 350 or more yards per game. Favorites have won the last four games between these teams in New Jersey and are 4-0-1 ATS. Six of last eight have gone OVER at Giants home.

Keys to the Game-

It’s about time Dallas puts together a December to remember, instead of how they have failed the last decade (17-29 SU L10Y). It begins with the offensive line, they’ve helped Cowboys to No.6 rushing attack (138 YPG), but Tony Romo has already been sacked a career-high 25 times. The Giants sack numbers are down, but they are wholly capable. The Dallas secondary was toasted 330 yards passing in the first meeting however has improved considerably, now up to 14th in yards per pass attempt. The Giants passing game has been mostly ineffective, save the win over Atlanta, there only W in last six outings. Cover up receivers and pressure Eli Manning. Cowboys have to attack aggressively to shake the doldrums of the final month of the season, yet they are measly 10-21-1 ATS on the road off two SU wins.

The Giants have lost their offensive identity. New York is designed to be running team first and in five opening victories they averaged 36 carries per game. In the subsequent six contests, they averaged just over 24 attempts. Don’t blame it trailing in losses, as they’ve had a second half lead in three of their last encounters. In the NFL, when things are not going well, they tend to snowball and Brandon Jacobs might be Giants only healthy running back. Manning could use the help as he has a stress condition in his right foot, which could account for accuracy issues. The G-Men are 13-4 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons and D-Line has to bother Romo throughout to protect tremulous secondary.

3DW Line – Dallas by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -1.5, 45.5

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Pats at Colts - Special Contest

A few weeks ago, Week 10’s Sunday night matchup pitting Tom Brady against Peyton Manning appeared to be another in a strong line of games with intriguing storylines for the NBC crew. Continuous injuries to the Indianapolis defense, however, give Brady and New England an advantage when they take the field at the RCA Dome.

The rivalry of the decade resumes in Indianapolis with the stakes high once again, as both teams are off to fast starts and considered top contenders for the AFC title. It wouldn’t be a shock if they meet again in January with a bigger prize on the line.

Running a close second to Manning in terms of earning the Colts 2009 MVP award, is the training staff, as it ranks as one of the most overworked in the NFL. On top of the normal sprains and nagging injuries that have already shelved running back Donald Brown (shoulder) and cornerback Kelvin Hayden (knee), Manning has watched six members of the defense go down for the year. Added to the list, prior to a 20-17 win over Houston last week, were cornerback Marlin Jackson (knee), linebacker Tyjuan Hagler (biceps) and most importantly, the heart and soul of the defense, safety Bob Sanders (elbow). The Colts (5-3 ATS) remains perfect at 8-0, but are just 1-3 ATS at home in 2009, and are 4-10 ATS in its previous testsas host overall.

Brady must be completely healed as he and his offensive teammates beat up on Tennessee and Tampa Bay before their bye week for a combined 688 yards and nine touchdowns. He then torched Miami’s secondary for 332 more yards, including a 71-yard scoring strike to Randy Moss in a 27-17 non-cover victory last Sunday.

It has been a thrilling head-to-head series since Bill Belichick arrived in New England in 2000. There have really been two different eras in the series, with the Patriots winning six straight games between 2001-04, and the Colts having since turned the tide, with about face record of 4-1 SU and ATS in last five confrontations.

In terms of raw numbers, Manning has enjoyed considerable success against New England during his career. But if there’s one player that casts a shadow even bigger than that of Manning, the multimedia superhero, Brady is it. The three-time Super Bowl winner owns two more titles than Manning. Four straight battles between the teams have been decided by a touchdown or fewer, including last season’s 18-15 decision taken by the Colts as six point favorites. The Matt Cassel-led Patriots managed just one touchdown and three field goals.

Line – Indianapolis -2.5 (Courtesy of Sportsbook.com)
Total – 48.5

Team Trends
The Patriots are 13-2 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game after eight or more games on the season.
The Patriots are 2-10 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in two straight games.
The Colts are 17-6 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game on the season.
The Colts are 2-10 ATS in home games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in consecutive contests.

Team Totals
The Patriots are 6-0 UNDER in road games off a home win since last year.
The Colts are 13-3 UNDER in home games after six or more consecutive wins.

Sunday Night Trends
The Patriots are 12-16-1 ATS and 5-7-1 ATS as road underdogs.
The Colts are 16-18 ATS and 4-8 ATS as home favorites.
Home teams are 4-18 ATS when both teams are off a SU win.

Expert Opinion – Steve Makinen

This game reminds me a lot of last Sunday night’s feature contest between the Eagles and Cowboys. Philly was playing well and was at home, but yet, oddsmakers had no qualms about keeping the line on the 3-mark throughout the entire week. Bettors sided with the Eagles and lost. Here, the Colts are facing their own old nemesis, the Patriots, and have some injury and home performance woes of their own to deal with. Indy has only covered one of its four games at home, and is just 4-10 ATS in its L14 as host. The Patriots meanwhile are getting better and better as the year rolls on and are a legitimate threat to leave just one team unbeaten. Trends like this underscore what role the coaching difference might play in this game: Bill Belichick is 18-8 ATS versus excellent offensive teams averaging six or more yards/play as the coach of New England. Take the points with New England.

Game Preview by College and Pro Football Newsweekly and Steve Makinen of StatFox.

Upon further review in the NFL

The difference between a playoff team and one who misses can often be a very thin line. Luck or getting the right breaks can make all the difference. 2008 division champions Tennessee, Carolina and Miami have yet to post a win this season (1-8 ATS) and for all intents and purposes, are very unlikely to make the playoffs. So what happened?

The loss of Albert Haynesworth has affected the Titans in a different way than anticipated. Tennessee hasn’t dramatically been affected by run defense, however with no pass rush up the middle against opposing quarterbacks, the Titans are 29th against the pass. For the most part, Tennessee was better than the unbeaten Jets on Sunday, but two special team’s fumbles deep in their own territory gift-wrapped two touchdowns for New York. (Coach Fisher a strong candidate for "What not to wear" TV show)

Carolina can’t generate a consistent running game (21st), which leaves Jake Delhomme left to win the game, which he does not appear capable of doing. The Panthers felt they had to be quicker on defense and went lighter. Instead of making more plays, opposing teams are pushing them around and Carolina is 29th against the rush.

Miami is returning back to earth after miracle revival from a year ago, following a 1-15 season. The Dolphins still have satisfactory running game, but has been the case, teams decided to no longer respect the Dolphins passing game. Ted Ginn Jr. has shown why most were shocked when Miami drafted him so high. He’s a poor route runner, who lacks the ability to create separation despite tremendous straight-line speed. The Fins averaging a mere 5.0 yards per pass (29th). Maybe Chad Henne can try and stretch the field. The Dolphins have had a difficult schedule to boot, yet it doesn’t appear to lighten up with four AFC East games and New Orleans on the next five outings.

San Francisco isn’t going anywhere and looks very capable of covering a number of spreads. They create a dilemma for oddsmakers also, since they lack explosiveness on offense to warrant exaggerated figures and the defense is more team-oriented than exceptional.

There were fewer reasons to bet on Indianapolis on Sunday in Arizona than to tune in “Lost”. Virtually every perspective was against the Colts, expect for one element, Peyton Manning. Even if you don’t like all his commercials, the guy is a player. He had that look in his eyes, and if you have wagered against Indy when he does, just mark it as a loss. Talent-wise this is not a great Colts team, yet they have a chance to be great because they have Manning.

Any wonder why the Vikings never gave up on Brett Favre. Here’s a dollar to your thousand that two guys named Tarvais and Sage never even attempted the throw Favre made.

Denver would be 3-0 SU and ATS right now if they had Jay Cutler as their quarterback, but guaranteed Chicago wouldn’t be 2-1 if they didn’t have the former Bronco. Greg Olson is above average tight end, but Cutler is throwing to Devin Hester, Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox, who are arguably the worst collection of wideouts in the NFL. Along with an active defensive line, Cutler is the reason for Bears winning record.

Study the numbers

For underdog seekers, it was not a good week in the NFL, with favorites 11-5 ATS. Home underdogs performed poorly for the third straight week at 2-5 ATS and are 5-11 ATS on the season. Take a look pro teams that have won as road or home underdogs, they are 8-3 ATS in the early going the next week.

The favorites were crushed in college football last week, covering 20 of 50 games played. Double digit home favorites in particular were very beatable at 7-14 against the number. In a statistical oddity, the totals have been evenly split each of the last three weeks on the college board.

Line movers were 2-7 ATS in NFL sides and totals in which the number moved 2.5 or more points. The wagering public also was nailed on college sides with 4-10 ATS mark on contests that moved three points or more. However, good fortune continued on college totals with 15-7 week, taking season total record to 54-23, 70.1 percent.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror

It’s not panic time in New England, however things are amiss. Tom Brady is just like the rest of us, after being away from your job after major surgery, it takes awhile to get back in the flow and what you have repaired, you don’t trust 100 percent. Sure the New York Jets brought a lot of pressure, but it’s not anything Brady hasn’t seen before. Yet it was clear, he’s not willing to hang onto the ball the extra tick and has made throws the last two weeks that are un-Brady like. Tough tilt with 2-0 Atlanta next.

What’s the biggest difference in the Jets; they have a coach that believes in them. Yes, Mark Sanchez has played well, but Rex Ryan has convinced his players they are good and gives them the freedom to succeed. That never happened under ol’ happy pants Eric Mangini. By the way, how good is cornerback Derrelle Revis playing? He’s been matched up primarily against Andre Johnson and Randy Moss the last two weeks. The results – eight total catches for 59 yards.

The Green Bay Packers defense was shredded by Cincinnati. The worst part was Cedric “Boat Boy” Benson shredded them on the ground for 141 yards. Coach Mike McCarthy also had a bad game, giving up on the running game that included only 14 rush attempts by running backs in a contest that was either tied or a seven-point game for the first 58 minutes. Not giving more help to offensive tackle who was being destroyed by DE Antawan Odom (five sacks) was ludicrous. Pack at 0-2 St. Louis for first road game.

San Francisco has two division wins already and will be in the NFC West hunt. The 49ers have a defense that lacks big names other than LB Patrick Willis, but don’t be surprised if they are not in Top 10 all season. Offensively, Frank Gore is running with explosiveness again and Shaun Hill won’t make many plays to hurt them. Niners head to Minnesota where they are 0-7 ATS.

San Diego has line problems on both sides of the ball; unfortunately it looks like survival mode again for awhile near Mission Bay. Chargers have Miami on short week at home, however are 0-5 ATS vs the Fins.

Jay Cutler showed Bears fans why he could be great. Cutler hasn’t been in Chicago look enough to find chemistry with receivers, nevertheless against Pittsburgh he was patient and didn’t force plays, which ended up giving his team a chance to win at the end, which they did. Pittsburgh offense is among the many not finishing drives thus far. Chicago has rugged trip to Seattle next and are 5-1 ATS away off a SU dog win.

Did you know Oakland had more first downs (6) in game-winning drive with 2:48 left on the clock, than they had in the entire rest of the game? (5) Raiders playing hard, if not eye-pleasing, could go over .500 for the first time since beginning of 2004 season with a home win over Denver this week.

Dallas was set to secure a real rarity in the NFL until Eli Manning worked magic in two-minute drill. The Cowboys almost won despite 4-0 turnover margin against them. Tony Romo might need glasses since his peripheral vision is awful picking up defensive backs at times. Next week hosting 0-2 Carolina is no bargain for Cowboys who are 4-17-1 ATS off a home loss.

What can you say about Peyton Manning after he led his team to victory. In case you haven’t heard, the Colts only had the ball for 14 minutes and 53 seconds. That's the lowest time of possession for a winning team since the NFL began tracking that statistic in the 1970s. The Indianapolis defense was on the field for 84 plays. Now they have to travel on short week, changing three time zones to Arizona for Sunday. We’ll find out if Cards coach Ken Whisenhunt is really sharp, since it makes all the sense in the world to play hurry up offense to wear down tired Colts defensive legs.

Upon further review in college football

For all the hype about USC quarterback talent, Washington’s Jake Locker is far ahead of anything the Trojans have under center. The junior was the difference-maker along with the defense that stiffened when needed. Though USC may have Top 5 talent, this is rather unemotional bunch for a Pete Carroll team. Not enough leadership within the locker room yet.

So much for Notre Dame’s improved speed and blitzing after allowing 68 points to Michigan schools. Losing Michael Floyd will impact Irish offense again; they will need offensive line and running backs to step up. BCS berth is wishful thinking right now.

Give Iowa a chance to at least cover against Penn State this week. They have good history against the Nittany Lions (7-3 and 8-2 ATS mark) and defense will make Jo Pa’s work to score points.

Nebraska did everything but win the game at Virginia Tech. They ran for over 200 yards on 5.75 yards per carry on what is looking like over-rated Hokies squad. Kudos to Tyrod Taylor for improvisational touchdown pass, yet it’s looking more obvious all the time teams that comparable or better talented teams have a real shot to defeat Va Tech. Next up hot Miami club in Big East revival match.

California might be good enough to beat USC at home in just under two weeks. Jahvid Best is the best runner in the country. The Bears defense can attack the passer and their biggest weakness on defense is at one corner, which USC quarterbacks might not be skilled enough to attack regularly. First for Cal is important matchup in Eugene, where the Ducks are 12-2 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons.

Great setting for Minnesota at home in new stadium, which will improve home field advantage dramatically.

Purdue chewed on the scheduling sandwich and was overrun by Northern Illinois 28-21 as 11.5-point home faves. The Boilermakers were off quality loss at Oregon and have home night game with rival Notre Dame next. The Huskies rushed for 280 yards at 4.9 YPC. First win over Big Ten school for NIU in 21 years. Purdue has won four of last six at home against the Fighting Irish.

Can a team that returns ONE defensive starter really be Top 20 material? It appears so with Cincinnati’s impressive 28-18 dismantling of Oregon State on the road. If the Heisman race wasn’t about all about the hype, QB Tony Pike would be in every discussion right now. Coach Brian Kelly is about to land big time job if the Bearcats finish 9-3 or 10-2 off BCS berth. The speculation starts here, Kelly to Colorado for right contract.

Quick Hitters- Georgia will need new defensive coordinator, but have to be impressed with Bulldogs win at Arkansas. The Hogs QB Ryan Mallet has a gun, but has to become better decision-maker. ---West Virginia is doomed with Bill Stewart as coach. It will close but no cigar for the Mountaineers, with some reason why they ALMOST win against similar teams. ---Reports had Colt McCoy not feeling feel, however, mechanically he’s not sound after being one of the best last season. It appears he’s trying to live up to someone’s expectations.

Study the numbers

It was a pedestrian weekend overall in college football, with underdogs 27-25 ATS and the totals split right down the middle of the 52 games played. Most sportsbooks did quite well with two public favorites BYU and Texas failing to cover. Maybe it’s a fluke, but following totals until game time is quite profitable at the moment. In games where the total has moved three or more points in one direction, betting the trend is 39-19-1, 65.5 percent on the college gridiron. (The NFL is 4-2 on moves of 2.5-points or more)

Touchdown or greater favorites in the NFL were heinous 0-3 ATS, with favorites 7-9 overall. Home underdogs were again losers at 2-3 and are 3-6 ATS on the season.

Terrific Tuesday of MLB Action

A pretty sorry day with 1-3 record, victimized by “The Sheriff” as John Gruden called Peyton Manning. The Best System was a winner yesterday and we’ll look for another that is 88.7 percent and has come up only twice this year. The Top Trend is dead perfect in an AL Central matchup. Kendall has Free Play loaded. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – After watching the Colts defense on the field for over 80 plays, how do you not play against Indy on a short week going on the road to Arizona?

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites like Colorado with a money line of -175 to -250, with a rested bullpen, which has thrown two innings or less in each of the last two games, against opponent after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings. This seldom seen system is 47-6, 88.7 percent over the last dozen years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Cleveland Indians are 0-10 after scoring four runs or less six straight games since last year and have lost these contests by 3.7 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Kendall is a start to finish baseball bettor and is just over 60 percent on the season, making himself a great deal of cash. His play today is Colorado on the run line.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Matching Quarterbacks to ATS numbers

While scanning the internet, I came across someone talking about how they didn’t necessarily agree with an article that former NFL quarterback and current ESPN football analyst Trent Dilfer wrote about NFL quarterbacks. After doing a quick search on Google, found the article where the Dilfer broke down each NFL starting signal caller and placed them into specific categories.

If you’ve heard Dilfer on ESPN, he comes across pretty well, speaks knowledgably about most topics, however he’s not above throwing a bizarre zinger that makes absolutely no sense, which brings his credibility into question.

Articles like the one Dilfer wrote are good fodder for discussion since they are mildly controversial, yet offer interesting opinions. Taking what the former Super Bowl champion quarterback had to say and matchup it up against the realities of betting on sports, let’s see where the two worlds intersect.

Not surprisingly, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are rated as the best in nearly all facets of the game. One of the keys for both is unquestioned preparation and ability to analyze defenses and make adjustments in a split second. For the sports bettor, Brady is the preferred choice. The former Michigan man is 53-39-3 ATS as favorite. Though he and his team have gotten off to slow start, and few doubt New England won’t improve along with their quarterback. Off the loss to the Jets, Brady and the Pats are 18-7 ATS after a straight up defeat. The older Manning has never kept that same company and has unusual record. Possibly because the Indianapolis has been so dominant in winning AFC South over the years, they are overvalued by oddsmakers or these teams are just more familiar with the Colts, they can stymie them. Whatever the reasoning, Manning is 30-44-2 ATS in division games. Get him out of the division and he’s 66-48-3 ATS.

His next group down has Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Though only two games into 2009 campaign, Brees, despite not having typical NFL quarterback stature and size requirements, is head and shoulders above the competition. The New Orleans offense looks like the Patriots of the couple of years ago and the St. Louis Rams “greatest show on turf” from the Kurt Warner years. Brees has led his team to two 40+ point totals with incredible ball distribution. Though Brees is 26-27-1 ATS in home games, he’s 35-18-4 ATS on the road, including fabulous 12-2 against the spread mark as road favorite after Sunday’s wipeout in Philadelphia.

Philip Rivers has gotten better each year as quarterback and San Diego is now his team. Though he’s a bit too much of a chatterbox, as Dilfer points out, Rivers makes the hardest throws among starting quarterbacks, since Norv Turner’s offense is more vertical, meaning throwing the ball 15-25 yards down the field and he does so with uncanny accuracy. The Chargers have offensive line and defensive issues at the moment, but Rivers and Bolts are still 18-10 ATS at home and 18-8-1 ATS when matched against a team off a loss.

Dilfer’s next batch could be rated higher by others and not many would argue. Remember when Eli Manning was too casual about playing quarterback and didn’t work as hard as his older brother? At the time, all of us weren’t aware NOBODY worked as hard as Peyton. Eli has gone on to earn his own Super Bowl ring and is adroitly moving his game up several notches working with new receivers and having success. Eli’s calm demeanor helps New York be in the right running plays and at two-minute drill time. The younger Manning and the Giants are methodical on the road with 27-12-1 ATS record.

Remember how unorthodox Brett Favre was for years, his replacement is Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has two gaudy Super Bowl rings and will likely never receive the true credit he deserves until a few years from now. He’s the best improviser at his position, and keeps plays alive most quarterbacks would just throw the ball away on. He a money-maker on a team that isn’t given the underdog role too often and he’s 14-6 ATS when catching points. Here’s two numbers to remember about Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh is 22-12 ATS with revenge and 20-9 ATS in the AFC North.

Dilfer also likes the productivity of Donovan McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck as veterans. Both have become more injury-prone in advancing years. McNabb when healthy is 45-26 ATS away from home and Hasselbeck is 28-17-2 ATS playing in coffee-town.

In his article, Dilfer calls the next group “knocking on the door”. This is primarily young quarterbacks with promise, who have to take the next step and take their teams to playoffs and start winning those games. Joe Flacco did just that, but was more a game manager than facilitator. In 2009, Flacco shows signs of progress. Matt Ryan is similar to Flacco and has the look of being able to prevent Atlanta from going backwards and making his club a Play On team. Aaron Rodgers is only 7-11 and 9-9 ATS at Green Bay, but he needs pass protection and a defense that stop somebody to take next growth step.

Tony Romo is drifting towards enigma stage. Talent-wise he’s probably Top 5, but his decision-making is horrendous in the biggest games, not unlike how he performed in Giants game this past Sunday. Yes, the Cowboys are always going to be overvalued, but to be 21-21 ATS with the amount of talent surrounding him, not acceptable.

Jay Cutler could be another breakout quarterback, if he shows maturity on and off the field. His spread numbers make most bettors pale (4-17-1 ATS as a favorite comes to mind), yet his ability is unquestioned outside a select few in Denver and if he grows with an unproven group of receivers in Chicago, it might be what he needs in the growth process.

Most of the other quarterbacks are what they are (Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner and Chad Pennington) and aren’t likely to become better without protection and talent around them. Many others like Trent Edwards, David Garrard and Shaun Hill need a solid running game to be most effective.

This is a worthwhile read especially in a league so dependent on one player in a team game. Sports bettors are wise to consider the quarterback matchup each and every game as a possible difference-maker for spread wins and losses.