2010 NFL Schedule Observations

The National Football League generated their annual buzz with the release of the schedule. Each home teams fan base immediately started speculating what their team’s record might look like except for Minnesota (they have grandfatherly quarterback from the South who likes to take his time) and Oakland (who doesn’t know the Raiders will have losing record). Sports bettors also like to think about the future, especially the prime time matchups. We’ll start with key games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights, all prime wagering territories.

Thursday feels different

The NFL took John Madden’s advice from several years ago and has made opening weekend a big deal, just like baseball does. That includes a top shelf game to whet the football appetite and Minnesota at New Orleans certainly fits the bill. The home teams are 7-1 and 5-1-2 ATS since this was introduced.

The NFL started sneaking in Thursday games a few years ago and had a more complete slate in the second half starting last year. In order to keep their partners from FOX and CBS happy, for the most part the games lacked pizzazz with mostly mediocre teams playing.

Not this year, bettors will see Baltimore at Atlanta (Week 10), Cincinnati at the N.Y. Jets (Thanksgiving night) and Indianapolis at Tennessee (Week 14) to name a few quality matchups.

Sunday Night Adventures

Since NBC took over the Sunday night package, sports bettors have made this an instant turnaround scenario. This is mostly square action, with NFL bettors trying to cover losses or pressing wins seeking the bigger score. While neither strategy is recommended, no debating the quality of games this far out before the season begins.

Week 1 we have the traditional Dallas and Washington rivalry, almost always good theatre. A number of other excellent divisional matchups will take place like the Jets at Miami (Week 3), the Giants at Philadelphia (Week 11), Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Week 13) and the Eagles at Cowboys (Week 14). One other confrontation could be a ratings bonanza with Minnesota and certain quarterback, visiting his former place of employment Green Bay on October 25.

The Packers are also involved in other entertaining contests, hosting Jerry Jones club in Week 9 and making trip to New England for the first time in eight years on Dec. 19.

Week 2 will conjure up a great deal of intrigue in the “Manning Brothers Bowl” at Indianapolis.

Monday’s with Tirico, Chucky and Jaws

A good portion of last year’s Monday action was terrific, especially early in the year. John Gruden’s enthusiasm carried thru and he and Ron Jaworski talked football for three hours making the booth more true football fan friendly.

Their first assignment is Baltimore at the New York Jets, with Rex Ryan going up against his former team. Later that same night, San Diego makes another opening game appearance on MNF versus another division rival, Kansas City, where they are 3-8 ATS.

This season will feature 13 division rivalry contests, always a treat for the sports bettors with the most anticipated one being Philadelphia in rematch at Donovan McNabb’s new crib in Washington on Nov. 15.

There is only one non-conference hookup and hostility could be in the air if Brett Favre actually does return. Minnesota will visit the new Meadowlands and the New York Jets, which will down as an asterisk in his storied career and one Jets’ fans will not forget for many reasons.

Changes in the schedule

Roger Goodell tried to address the last part of the schedule to become more meaningful and all 16 games the final Sunday of the season will be divisional contests. While some question what Oakland at Kansas City and St. Louis at Seattle might mean, this writer applauds the effort in trying to make the end of the season not just several exhibitions that count in the standings.

In all, 28 division games will be played the last three weeks of the year (29.1 percent of the total).

The NFL has graciously stepped aside from the World Series for years on Sunday night’s in late October, but with falling ratings for the former national pastime, Goodell and the guys decided to make baseball’s life that much more difficult with Nov. 1 conflict of Pittsburgh at New Orleans.

A few scheduling observations………….

No team has a duller schedule than Buffalo. Besides no national TV games, all 16 Sunday contests have a 1:00 Eastern start time.

San Diego is notoriously slow starter, however anything less than 4-2 with at Kansas City, Jacksonville, at Seattle, Arizona, at Oakland and at St. Louis would qualify as not mentally prepared.

Cincinnati is seeking first back to back winning seasons in 28 years with fourth toughest schedule.

Kansas City will have Play Against sequences, with three pairs of two road games.

Cleveland won their last four contests a season ago and could start 2-0 going to Tampa Bay and hosting the Chiefs. The Browns close to the year is taxing. Three straight road games Weeks 13-15 and finishing at home with division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Denver has three consecutive road games in Week 13-15.

Houston has Indianapolis at home and three of next four games against the NFC East to begin 2010.

Washington was 4-12 in 2009; however the power of Mike Shanahan leads to five national tilts.

The Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints move to the role of hunted and first road test in at San Francisco on Monday night.

Dallas finally broke late season blues; however they could return having to face (@) the Colts, Philly, Redskins, (@) Cardinals and (@) Eagles in final five weeks.

Matt Leinart will receive a quick baptism as the Arizona starting quarterback again with three of first four games on the road.

The Cardinals and Detroit have three consecutive home games in Weeks 12-14.

The Falcons have a road game on Oct. 17 and don’t wear visiting uniforms again until Nov. 21 with three home contests and a bye.

Pittsburgh will play three home games and three road games without suspended Ben Roethlisberger and when he returns three consecutive national telecasts at the Saints, Cincy and home with New England.

The normally profitable West to East three time zone games have nine occurrences, with seven having a 1:00 Eastern start (10:00 Pacific for West Coast teams). This is usually the best value early in the season, before teams have traveled much and the Falcons have Arizona and San Fran in town the first four weeks of regular season.

New York might need bailout in Washington

With their season on the line, the New York Giants came up short at home again versus Philadelphia last week, losing a high scoring affair 45-38. Although not mathematically dead in the playoff race, their hopes are on life support, with two of their final three games on the road. This perilous position means the Giants have to sweep Washington for the third time in the last four years to keep dreams alive of a fifth straight postseason bid.

A week after beating the Cowboys, New York (6-7 ATS) lost a fourth straight game to the Eagles at the Meadowlands and fell to third place in the division with a record of 7-6. Philadelphia sits at 10-4 and Dallas is 9-5. Washington (6-7 ATS) brings up the rear in the NFC East at 4-9 and comes into this Monday night game off a victory at Oakland. The G-Men will come to Washington 17-5 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.

Unlike recent seasons (18-6 SU & ATS the last three years as visitors including postseason), New York has floundered of late away from home, losing its last three games both SU and ATS, by at least 20 points each time. They’ll look to break that skid with a fourth straight win in Washington against a Redskins team set on spoiling any remaining hopes for its division rival. The Giants are 15-4 ATS in road games against NFC opposition.

Washington D.C. is known for stirring debates and rumors flying (among many other things) and the latest involves Mike Shanahan being the next coach of the Redskins. Present head coach Jim Zorn swallowed his pride earlier and gave up control of calling plays, yet apparently never lost his team despite all the distractions.

Washington has continued to play hard and only one of their nine losses has been by more than 10 points, proving their competitiveness. After losing three consecutive games by seven total points, they routed the Raiders 34-13 as 2.5-point road favorites and have covered the spread five straight times.

Among those that have shown improvement is quarterback Jason Campbell. The former Auburn signal caller has gone thru almost as many offensive coordinators as Tiger Woods “indiscretions”, but has been more consistent with 2,946 yards passing, 17 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He’ll set career highs in all three categories, but it’s up for debate whether or not he’s still the quarterback of the future, turning 28 years old on New Year’s Eve.

Run defense was Washington’s focus during the offseason—it signed Pro Bowl tackle Albert Haynesworth to a $100 million contract—yet still allows 117.5 yards per game. That is no fault of Haynesworth, who has battled nagging injuries the last two months and he and his teammates have given up only 122 yards on the ground the last two games. That isn’t necessarily a good omen, as the Skins are 0-7 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games since 2007. For the Washington optimist, whose party controls the House or Senate, the Redskins are 9-1 ATS versus offensive teams like the Giants (382.4 YPG) averaging 375 or more yards per game in the second half of the season.

DiamondSportsbook.com has New York as three-point favorites with total of 43.5. These teams renewed their rivalry in Week 1 and the Giants held on for a 23-17 victory at home after building a 17-point lead late in the first half. Mario Manningham caught a 30-yard touchdown pass from Eli Manning, Osi Umenyiora returned a Jason Campbell fumble 37 yards for a touchdown and kicker Lawrence Tynes booted three field goals to account for New York’s scoring. Manning’s squad has won and covered three in a row at FedEx Field, however is 0-5 ATS in last five favorite roles and 4-10-1 ATS on Monday’s.

Despite their spread streak, Washington is 3-9 ATS at home, nonetheless has covered last four times dressed up as hogs, whoops, underdogs. Six of the last eight games at Washington have gone OVER when these teams meet.

New York covers if the offensive line plays up to previous standards and controls the action. Like most quarterbacks, Manning is not nearly as effective when he’s getting knocked around. The front five has to give him time and the Giants offensive coaches need to be more patient in the run game. They feeling from New York observers is if the offense doesn’t pick up a couple of first downs running in a particular drive, Tom Coughlin’s staff is quick to pull the trigger and start passing almost exclusively. Given time, Manning should pick apart the Redskins middle defense since the safeties couldn’t cover the Giants’ receivers with a bolt of Christmas wrapping paper.

Washington covers if the secondary can rough up the G-Men’s youthful wide receivers. At times, alligator arms have been seen by various New York pass catchers over the middle, and Redskins’ safeties love to deliver big shots. Washington’s pass rush has hit another gear and with the Giants’ tackles faulty in pass protection and not picking up stunts properly, they could create chaos in the pocket. Tight end Fred Davis has become Campbell’s go-to-guy if Santana Moss is covered. Davis is big and can get down the field to cause Giant(s) headaches (that’s terrible) for the team in blue.

Monday Night System – Play On home team whose opponent surrendered 35 or more points in previous game. (18-5 ATS, 78.2 percent)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Matching Quarterbacks to ATS numbers

While scanning the internet, I came across someone talking about how they didn’t necessarily agree with an article that former NFL quarterback and current ESPN football analyst Trent Dilfer wrote about NFL quarterbacks. After doing a quick search on Google, found the article where the Dilfer broke down each NFL starting signal caller and placed them into specific categories.

If you’ve heard Dilfer on ESPN, he comes across pretty well, speaks knowledgably about most topics, however he’s not above throwing a bizarre zinger that makes absolutely no sense, which brings his credibility into question.

Articles like the one Dilfer wrote are good fodder for discussion since they are mildly controversial, yet offer interesting opinions. Taking what the former Super Bowl champion quarterback had to say and matchup it up against the realities of betting on sports, let’s see where the two worlds intersect.

Not surprisingly, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are rated as the best in nearly all facets of the game. One of the keys for both is unquestioned preparation and ability to analyze defenses and make adjustments in a split second. For the sports bettor, Brady is the preferred choice. The former Michigan man is 53-39-3 ATS as favorite. Though he and his team have gotten off to slow start, and few doubt New England won’t improve along with their quarterback. Off the loss to the Jets, Brady and the Pats are 18-7 ATS after a straight up defeat. The older Manning has never kept that same company and has unusual record. Possibly because the Indianapolis has been so dominant in winning AFC South over the years, they are overvalued by oddsmakers or these teams are just more familiar with the Colts, they can stymie them. Whatever the reasoning, Manning is 30-44-2 ATS in division games. Get him out of the division and he’s 66-48-3 ATS.

His next group down has Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Though only two games into 2009 campaign, Brees, despite not having typical NFL quarterback stature and size requirements, is head and shoulders above the competition. The New Orleans offense looks like the Patriots of the couple of years ago and the St. Louis Rams “greatest show on turf” from the Kurt Warner years. Brees has led his team to two 40+ point totals with incredible ball distribution. Though Brees is 26-27-1 ATS in home games, he’s 35-18-4 ATS on the road, including fabulous 12-2 against the spread mark as road favorite after Sunday’s wipeout in Philadelphia.

Philip Rivers has gotten better each year as quarterback and San Diego is now his team. Though he’s a bit too much of a chatterbox, as Dilfer points out, Rivers makes the hardest throws among starting quarterbacks, since Norv Turner’s offense is more vertical, meaning throwing the ball 15-25 yards down the field and he does so with uncanny accuracy. The Chargers have offensive line and defensive issues at the moment, but Rivers and Bolts are still 18-10 ATS at home and 18-8-1 ATS when matched against a team off a loss.

Dilfer’s next batch could be rated higher by others and not many would argue. Remember when Eli Manning was too casual about playing quarterback and didn’t work as hard as his older brother? At the time, all of us weren’t aware NOBODY worked as hard as Peyton. Eli has gone on to earn his own Super Bowl ring and is adroitly moving his game up several notches working with new receivers and having success. Eli’s calm demeanor helps New York be in the right running plays and at two-minute drill time. The younger Manning and the Giants are methodical on the road with 27-12-1 ATS record.

Remember how unorthodox Brett Favre was for years, his replacement is Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has two gaudy Super Bowl rings and will likely never receive the true credit he deserves until a few years from now. He’s the best improviser at his position, and keeps plays alive most quarterbacks would just throw the ball away on. He a money-maker on a team that isn’t given the underdog role too often and he’s 14-6 ATS when catching points. Here’s two numbers to remember about Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh is 22-12 ATS with revenge and 20-9 ATS in the AFC North.

Dilfer also likes the productivity of Donovan McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck as veterans. Both have become more injury-prone in advancing years. McNabb when healthy is 45-26 ATS away from home and Hasselbeck is 28-17-2 ATS playing in coffee-town.

In his article, Dilfer calls the next group “knocking on the door”. This is primarily young quarterbacks with promise, who have to take the next step and take their teams to playoffs and start winning those games. Joe Flacco did just that, but was more a game manager than facilitator. In 2009, Flacco shows signs of progress. Matt Ryan is similar to Flacco and has the look of being able to prevent Atlanta from going backwards and making his club a Play On team. Aaron Rodgers is only 7-11 and 9-9 ATS at Green Bay, but he needs pass protection and a defense that stop somebody to take next growth step.

Tony Romo is drifting towards enigma stage. Talent-wise he’s probably Top 5, but his decision-making is horrendous in the biggest games, not unlike how he performed in Giants game this past Sunday. Yes, the Cowboys are always going to be overvalued, but to be 21-21 ATS with the amount of talent surrounding him, not acceptable.

Jay Cutler could be another breakout quarterback, if he shows maturity on and off the field. His spread numbers make most bettors pale (4-17-1 ATS as a favorite comes to mind), yet his ability is unquestioned outside a select few in Denver and if he grows with an unproven group of receivers in Chicago, it might be what he needs in the growth process.

Most of the other quarterbacks are what they are (Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner and Chad Pennington) and aren’t likely to become better without protection and talent around them. Many others like Trent Edwards, David Garrard and Shaun Hill need a solid running game to be most effective.

This is a worthwhile read especially in a league so dependent on one player in a team game. Sports bettors are wise to consider the quarterback matchup each and every game as a possible difference-maker for spread wins and losses.