Running real late this Tuesday - Short and sweet

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like Orioles, with a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per start, after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings. This amazing system is 61-10, 85.9 percent since 2006.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Milwaukee is 20-3 vs. NL teams allowing 5.3 or more runs a game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Kendall is 7-2 in last nine MLB plays and the White Sox mopping up Seattle.

Total Domination Fuels Two MLB Matchups

Baltimore and Pittsburgh have been two of the weakest franchises in baseball for a number of years. The Orioles haven’t had a winning season since their division title in 1997 and Pittsburgh is on historic sports streak, as their last winning campaign came in 1992. When you are this bad, everyone has a shot to beat you, however certain teams can really put the hurt on you and both clubs face a nemesis that just doesn’t let up this evening.

Thank you sir may I have another

It was just four years ago, despite being a horribly run franchise, Baltimore (29-63, -20.8 units) always had the cushion of Tampa Bay (56-36, +2.8) below them to at least have a little dignity, keeping them out of last place in the AL East. No more, as the Rays figured out how to put together a farm system and Baltimore, they are still trying to work that point out.

The O’s came into the season believing they had turned a corner, with the development of a few of their younger players, despite the fact they were on a streak of the next season being worst than the prior since 2004.

This quickly turned into a futile campaign with abysmal 2-16 start. Enter Tampa Bay. The Rays are 6-1 vs. the Orioles this year, including 4-0 at Camden Yards, where the teams will meet again. Over the past three seasons, Tampa Bay is 15-7 where crapcakes are plentiful and 31-13 overall.

Sports betting online outlets have Baltimore as +180 home underdogs, after their 8-1 shellacking last night and the Birds are 2-19 after scoring one run or less this season. They will send potential sacrificial lamb Jake Arrieta (3-2, 4.62 ERA) to the mound and Baltimore is 11-36 off three straight losses against division rivals the last three seasons.

Tampa Bay will start Matt Garza (10-5, 4.05) who is 8-1 with a 2.48 ERA in 10 career starts against the Orioles and is 2-0 this season, permitting two earned runs in 16 innings and striking out 14. For this 7:05 Eastern contest, the Rays are 14-4 on the division road this season.

Oh that’s going to leave a mark

Prosperity and abundance are two words seldom associated with the Pittsburgh Pirates (32-60, -12.3). After scoring 21 runs on 36 hits in last two contests in taking the series against Houston, the Bucs must have been arm and leg weary and could only muster a lone run and six base-knocks against renowned Chris Capuano and other bullpen pitchers from Milwaukee (43-51, -7.8) in 3-1 defeat (Capuano’s first win in three years).

Pittsburgh losing to the Brewers is as predictable Lindsey Lohan and Mel Gibson being in the news, after awhile you hardly even notice.

The Pirates have fallen to the Brew Crew in nine of 12 matchups this year (5 of 6 at PNC Park) and they are 8-32 vs. Milwaukee since 2008. The latest slump has Pittsburgh losing nine of 11 and they are 8-27 with double revenge against opponent this season.

Betting on sports participants will note the Bucs are +117 underdogs with their best young pitcher Brad Lincoln (1-3, 5.14) taking the ball. Lincoln has mid-90’s heat, a curveball with a hard break and improving changeup. His problems have come leaving the ball up against big league hitters and has been tagged for four homers in last two starts. Pittsburgh is 50-101 after batting .250 or worse over a 20-game span.

Milwaukee counters with Dave Bush (4-7, 4.07), who has pitched his best baseball of the season of late, with 2.45 ERA in his last trio of starts. Half of Bush’s wins in 2010 have been at the expense of Pittsburgh and the Brewers are on 7-1 streak as a road favorite in the -110 to -150 range. The Crew is 7-0 against Pitt. when Bush is the starting pitcher since July 5, 2008.

Some like it Hot

Another winning day at 3Daily Winners takes us to 112-58, as we strive to get back to two/thirds winners. There are hot streaks and there is Ron. This dude is just dialed in on the base paths and is having a Barry Bonds season (steroids not included, but Ron does look a little bigger and I just thought about the acne thing, hmmm). He gives us another Free play worth seriously considering. We have a Top Trend in a West Coast conflict and today’s Best System is 48-10, in other words, damn good. Good Luck

What I thought today – Unfortunately the summer is more than half over, the good news is the first college football Saturday is seven weeks away.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like Baltimore, who lack power (0.9 or less home runs per game), against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season. Playing against these passive pooches’ yields 48-10, 82.8 percent record.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Arizona is 6-23 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season, losing by 3.3 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron pushed his streak to 61-16 and believes he has yet another winner at 3DW and prefers Atlanta to maul Milwaukee.

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Back in Business

With a 97-55 record over 152 plays, we tackle today starting with one of the best systems of the year at 91.5 percent. The Top Trend is virtually perfect and Ron is making a killing betting baseball and has another play ready to go for Free.

What I did the last few days – Went to Vegas with my vacationing daughter and had a tremendous time. No question the face of Vegas is changing, with many more people in the 25-40 range. This is in part to more affordable room rates then in the past and most of these people are used to paying $10 for drinks.

My daughter had never been downtown and I had not been at night in sometime. Had a great time viewing the overhead show and playing in the small casinos. Even went into the Golden Gate Casino, where I learned how to play craps years ago.

Met a few cappers and sharps and the word on the street is the newer M Resort is the place for serious bettors. They are taking more action with higher limits to attract the crème of the crop and have several more wagering options for those that make a living betting full or part time.

Cabo Wabo is Sammy Hagar’s place and they’ve opened restaurant as part of the Miracle Mile right on The Strip. Good food and a good time.

One thing you have to do on next visit is hit Minus 5 bar. Really unique and brought back the bone-chilling cold I used to feel and no longer miss for a second.

I was surprised to hear the number of live bands at so many places. It was funny to see one guy trying to be Sugar Ray (wasn’t happening) and a lead guitar player was still working on his moves, though he could have been Steve Nash’s brother.

Another band had a higher 30’s female singer who thought she was a younger Fergie from the Black Eyed Peas and in the same group, the guitarist must have bought his latest guitar strap at a discount store that only had “smalls” left, since it looked like he was playing his six-stringer under his chin.

If you are into Beer Pong, have to hit O’Sheas, awesome.

For the most part I had no luck gambling on pretty much anything I tried, until finally finding the right craps table at The Mirage of all places (normally don’t play their much) and getting back most of my money with a group of hot shooters. Thank God.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like the Cubs, hitting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a smokin’ starting pitcher, whose WHIP is 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This system is delightful, 54-5 since 2006.

Free Baseball Trends -2) Baltimore is 1-19 vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits a start this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Met Ron in Vegas and he is just killin’ the books, now up to 44-11 in last 55 MLB plays, plus he’s making all kinds of other cash on other wagers on baseball that he personally plays in other ways. Tonight he dons brown friars clothing and is playing the Padres.

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Baltimore in negative run line system

Being the Baltimore Orioles is about as much fun as having a wad of cash in Vegas and being told you can only play penny slots. Every now and again you will walk away a winner from a slot machine and feel good about yourself, but for the most part, rather unfulfilling and a losing proposition.

Baltimore has the worst record in baseball at 25-59 and after winning four in a row and five of six at the end June, life has returned to normal in Crab Cake-land with the Orioles 1-6 in July to start the month. The Orioles have more warts than a case of Compound W could take care of.

The majority of this article will focus on the offense, or in the case of the O’s, the lack of times they touch home plate for scores.

Baltimore is 27th in baseball in scoring at 3.6 runs per game and only Seattle scores less in the American League. As horrific as this sounds, it gets worse when the Orioles wear the visiting uniforms. They are the only team in the big leagues that has yet to register 10 road wins (9-34). Their runs scored per game falls to 3.3 and they lack the power or patience to change matters, ranked 28th in home runs as visitors and 29th in attracting walks. After yesterday’s 4-2 loss completed a sweep for Detroit, these Birds are 8-26 after scoring two runs or less this season.

Being such a sorry offensive club, Baltimore has a great deal to overcome when the pitching staff permits 5.4 runs per game. (That’s six runs per contest just to have a chance to win for those keeping score at home) Jeremy Guthrie (3-10, 4.64 ERA) will be entrusted in righting Baltimore’s situation and this will not be a simple task, given the opponent and his recent past.
Guthrie is 0-6 with a 6.17 ERA in seven starts since beating Oakland on May 25 and was hammered his last time out. The O’s right-hander was tagged for six runs and a season-high nine hits over four-plus innings in a 9-3 wipeout at Boston last Saturday.

Texas (50-34) is the clear leader in the AL West, 5.5 games ahead of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Orange County near Disneyland. The Rangers play in a nice little bandbox in Arlington where they are 31-15 and score six runs per game on the button.

They will send Tommy Hunter (5-0, 1.98) to toe the rubber as starter. The 24-year old has won a team record five straight home games to start the season and is 11-4 with a 3.51 ERA in 17 career starts in Arlington. With the total listed at 9.5 at sportsbooks, Hunter and Texas are 14-4 when the number is 8.5 to 10 over the last two seasons.

The Rangers are a -250 money line favorite at home, however for sports bettors, the value sets up better to play them on the run line (-1.5, -130), especially with this system running.

Play Against road underdogs vs. the 1.5 run line (Run Line range of +165 to -135) who are horrible AL offensive team, scoring 3.7 runs a game or less on the season, in the second half of the year.

Dating back to 1997, this system is 48-18 and has been even sharper in 2010 with 7-2 mark. It’s impossible to ignore the Orioles are 16-41 after a loss this season and 12-41 on the road after four or more consecutive contests away from Camden Yards since last year. Throw in the fact Baltimore is 5-25 against the ML as a road underdog of +150 or more in 2010, losing by exactly two runs per game and this run line system is looking stronger by the minute.

Baseball Systems that circle the bases

Winning at baseball betting comes in many shapes and sizes. One method to consider is baseball systems, since you don’t have a point spread involved and just have to win the game to win the money. For Thursday uncovered four strong MLB systems that could well provide delectable results.

Chicago Cubs at Seattle 3:40E

Two crummy teams presently headed in opposite directions are the Cubs and Mariners. Chicago (31-40) has dropped four of five to AL West teams and has fallen into third place tie with Milwaukee in the NL Central. Seattle (30-41) on the other hand has strung together six straight wins and moved to within 2.5 games of vacating the basement of their division.

The Mariners go after their longest win streak since they won eight straight from June 23-July 1, 2007, giving the ball to Felix Hernandez (5-5, 3.39 ERA), who is back to pitching like King Felix in his last couple of outings (17 2/3 innings, three runs allowed). Seattle is a -156 money line favorite and the M’s and Hernandez are 19-4 in June when he is the starter. You have to like the Mariners chances since home teams having won six or more consecutive contests in June are 112-44 the last 13 years including 7-1 this season.

Florida at Baltimore 7:05E

This isn’t exactly news like a United States general has been removed from his duty, as the Baltimore Orioles (19-52) pitching staff continues to give up hits at an alarming rate. O’s pitchers have been touched for 69 base hits in their last six outings, permitting 6.5 runs per game in losing five of six. The past three contests have been especially egregious, as 26 opposing runners have touched home plate.

It’s not like Baltimore has a tremendous offense to offset their pitching woes, ranked 12th in on-base percentage in the American League at .310, averaging a league low 3.3 RPG. Oddsmakers have this contest set for 9.5 total and in this spot look to go below the number as AL teams with on-base percentage .310 or worse on the season, having allowed seven runs or more three straight games are 38-12 UNDER.

St. Louis at Toronto 7:07E

The Blue Jays are like basketball team that lives and dies with the three-point shot. When it goes in the basket, the club looks awesome, when it does not, they definitely come up short. Toronto (38-34) leads all of baseball with 108 home runs; however they are dead last in the AL in batting average (.239) and on-base percentage (.307).

As good as the Jays starting pitching has been, St. Louis (40-31) is the type of team that can match or surpass Toronto’s pitchers and keep their bats under control like they have the first two games of the series. With the Blue Jays a +116 home underdog against Adam Wainwright (10-4, 2.23) and Redbirds, consider playing against underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher, with below average AL hitting team (BA .265 or less), against a good NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or lower, who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games. The favorite in this situation is 97-28 since 1997.

Pittsburgh at Texas 8:05E

The Texas Rangers (43-38) are hotter than the midday Dallas summer sun with 10 consecutive victories. The same cannot be said about Pittsburgh (25-46), who has been a victim on the road 13 games in a row. The Texas bats are afire, scoring 6.4 RPG in this streak and will face ground-ball pitcher Jeff Karstens (2-2, 4.72).

Rangers’ hitters battered the first two Pirates pitchers for 13 runs last night, forcing them to use five relievers over the last eight innings. Karstens has to pinpoint the ball to be effective and only has walked 11 batters in seven starts; however he can’t overpower opponents either, as his total of 19 strikeouts proves.

The Rangers are a Texas-sized -250 ML favorite to sweep the series and underdogs of +150 or more, with a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per start, after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings are dreadful 10-58.

All systems from the Foxsheets.

Sunday Action - Over and Out

Saturday brought yet another 2-1 day, raising record to 77-40. The Best System is 46-11 since 1997. Had a choice of five perfect Top Trends, went with the one most likely to win in my opinion. Mike offers his Free and best play today. Good Luck

What I share today – I’m on vacation until June 22, thus no articles written by me until I return unless I have something really important to say here. I will try and have Free Plays, but it will be spotty, especially early in the week.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against any team like the Orioles who are nasty AL offensive team (4.5 runs or less a game), against a good NL starting pitcher with ERA of 3.70 or less, batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. Mark this system down as 46-11, 80.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) A ton of great trends today, but I’m going with Detroit 11-0 in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs a game on the season over the last three years.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Mike of the LCC is +4.70 legit units the last few days and has Tampa Bay as top play.

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Sunday Stuff

Another 2-1 Saturday takes us to 69-34 and we have a MLB system similar to yesterday with a slightly different twist that is 87.3 percent. The Top Trend yields two from the same game and is 25-1. Mr. Buck has hit a nice stretch and hopes to sail along with another winner today. Good Luck

What I thought today – As soon as Kendry Morales broke the bone in his leg jumping on home plate in freak accident, everyone assumed the Angles would fly away and not be contender. Instead they have won six of seven as other players are stepping up offensively. I acknowledge playing the M’s and Royals helps.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like Arizona, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a ridiculous starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or less over his last five starts. In the last 63 times this system has come up in the last five years, 55 have been winners.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Boston is 12-0 after four or more consecutive Over’s and Baltimore is 1-13 after scoring two runs or less two straight games this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Though I continue to do well with 2-1 day, I missed my play here yesterday and in moves Paul Buck who is on steaming 10-2 run. He’s on the Mariners to salvage one game in their series.

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Hopefully more winners on the way

Let’s make today a good Saturday. We have nailed exactly 67 percent of our last 100 selections at the 3DW and let’s hunt down more winners. We’ll start with a MLB killer system that is 93.4. We have a different kind of trend; check it out, rather quirky and perfect. I’ve been going well lately, see my top play today. Good Luck

What I saw today – Justin Masterson won Friday to end his streak of winless starts at 17, which was the longest streak of winless starts in Indians history. The previous record, 15 starts, was set by Brent Strom in 1973 and tied by Rod Nichols from 1989 to 1991.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like Baltimore, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher (Jon Lester) whose WHIP 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Since 2006 this incredible system is 57-4, 93.4 percent. For good measure, Lester is 10-0 against the Birds.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Here is a bit of a changeup, but worth noting. Umpire Todd Tichenor is behind the plate tonight in St. Louis and home teams are 11-0, winning by 3.4 runs per game when he is calling balls and strikes this season. I’m just sayin’!

Free Baseball Pick -3) I’m 31-17, +11.04 units since May 20 and like the underdog Athletics this evening.

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Welcome to June

Had a couple of off days and that has to be expected with such a good streak going. Our record is still 64-30, which you can take to the bank. The LCC continue to be sharp and has the Pale Hose as top play. The Orioles play the Yankees; guess which team is on the wrong end of Top Trend? The Best System is 83.3 percent way down in South Florida. Good Luck

What I’ll thought today – A rather peculiar day with just baseball, it’s been awhile, unless you count the WNBA, I don’t.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs like Milwaukee with a money line of +100 to +150, with a bad bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities, with a chilly starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.250 or higher over his last three starts. This has the feel of outstanding profit potential with 35-7 record, 83.3 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Baltimore is 1-16 in road games after scoring one or less runs in a loss to a division rival over the last three seasons, losing by a whopping 3.4 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection is on incredible run and they actually have three games in which they are on one side, but the one with White Sox is most dominant at 14-0.

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MLB Systems that hit all bases

The weather is heating up across most of the country, which makes going a baseball a very comfortable experience. On the topic of hot, this Wednesday we have four smokin’ systems in the big leagues that begging to be considered for online sports betting.

Oakland at Baltimore 7:05E MASN

After smacking the ball around the yard for 31 hits in two games early last week, the Athletics offense has gone nearly dormant with more than seven base hits once in last six outings. Oakland is 12th in runs scored in the American League at 3.8 per game and will face Baltimore’s Brian Matusz (2-4, 5.26 ERA), whose last three outings have been like the stock market. (3 2/3, six runs allowed -seven shutout innings – 2 1/3, seven runs allowed)

Sportsbooks have total on this tilt of Ov8.5, but history shows AL teams that score 4.5 or less runs a contest after three consecutive games of seven hits or fewer, against a starting pitcher with ERA in 4.70 to 5.70 range, have a strong tendency to play UNDER with 39-13 record since 1997.

Boston at Tampa Bay 7:10 E NESN

For the last several years the Red Sox have scuffled in Tampa Bay with 6-16 record coming into the series. They are starting to turn that around with a pair of wins to begin three-game set. Boston will go for the sweep of the AL East division leaders having won four in a row and eight of nine.

The Red Sox have been swinging hot bats and are now second to Toronto in home runs in the big leagues with 62 and they’ve received excellent pitching, holding the Rays to one run in the first two games. John Lackey (4-3, 5.07) continues to struggle with his new club and will take on Matt Garza (5-2, 2.37) who is 8-2 against the BoSox.

Oddsmakers have made Boston +144 road underdogs and teams averaging 1.25 or more home runs game after allowing two runs or less and are visiting dogs of +125 to +175, are 26-86 the last five seasons.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati 7:10E

While San Diego and Tampa Bay have garnered most of the attention for their early season exploits, one team has quietly gone about their business, yet is surprisingly tied for a division lead. The Cincinnati Reds are 26-20 (+6.5), with seven wins in their last 11 contests. The Reds strength has been their offense, averaging 5.6 RPG since May 4.

Tonight, Cincy is a -166 ML choice and home favorites of -125 to -175, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, in May, are 45-13 since 2006.

Arizona at Colorado 8:40E

On the baseball card for Hump Day, one of the biggest presumed mismatches is this NL West battle. The reason is simplistic, National League Cy Young Award candidate, Ubaldo Jimenez (8-1, 0.99) is pitching, leading baseball in wins and earned run average.

How dominant has Jimenez been; he’s the second major league starter in the past 90 years to begin a season with nine starts of six or more innings while giving up three or fewer runs.
The Rockies are -240 ML faves against Arizona’s up and down offense and road underdogs of +175 to +250, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or less over his last five starts are beggarly 3-47. Ouch!

All systems from the Foxsheets.

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3DW Baseball Betting Beat

The Houston Astros are not the worst team in baseball or the poorest wager, however do not worry, they have time to still get there. Houston is 14-26, -7.6 units, both good (and bad enough) to rank in the bottom six of Major League baseball.

The Astros could likely be the best play against team at the moment, but somehow they swept the Cardinals near The Arch in St. Louis starting back on May 11 and picked up +6.35 units.

Why is Houston so bad? This is a franchise full of neglect with owner Drayton McLane calling the shots. McLane would not have his millions if he ran his other businesses in the same manner as his baseball franchise.

McLane has always liked to overpay for his own stars, with B to C level talent he thought would help fill seats and maybe help his team win. Free agents like Carlos Lee, Jeff Kent, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens (he of the part-time duty in his days in southeast Texas) all received big contracts, but never produced the type of numbers over the expanse of their deals.

Lance Berkman might be 34, but his deterioration has been in full view for a couple of years for those betting baseball.

The numbers tell the story about the ‘Stros. In the National League they are last in runs scored (3.0), batting average (.231), doubles (53), home runs (21), total bases (436) and on-base percentage (.277).

To understand their ineptitude, compare those numbers to league averages, please understand not the best, just what the average NL team profile looks like. (Thru May 19)

Runs scored (4.5)
Batting average (.257)
Doubles (77)
Home runs (37)
Total bases (552)
On-base percentage (.330)

These are mind-boggling numbers for sports betting aficionados. At the aforementioned date with these number compiled, Houston did not have above average player at ONE field position (excluding pitcher) when it came to adding up these shown figures in the senior circuit, not one.

The Astros play the old-school way like a Kirby Puckett, who went to the dish hacking. One problem they don’t have a player of his talent on the roster and rank 15th in pitches taken and dead last in walks with 77. (The Giants are 15th at 121 base on balls by comparison, a 36.4 percent differential)

About the only thing Houston batters don’t do a lot of is strikeout (lowest in the NL), but they have so little patience at the plate, they don’t give opposing pitchers a chance to send them back to the bench and instead flail away at whatever is pitched.

With the poorest farm system in the big leagues according to Baseball America, one top notch pitcher in Roy Oswalt and two average to slightly above hurlers in Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers, prospects are not good this season will improve. Take away a 9-6 record at present against NL Central partners and the 2010 Astros are 5-20 (-15.5) against the record of the league.

The best way to sum up Houston is compare them to baseball’s best team, Tampa Bay, in one category. The Rays are 16-3 in games determined by four or more runs and the Astros are 3-13. You would think Rachel Phelps was running the team. (The Cleveland Indians owner in the movie - Major League)

I wouldn’t read too much into the Pittsburgh Pirates hovering just below .500 thus far in 2010. The Bucs have been good underdog wager at 17-21, +7.8 units; however their run differential is -100. That number is higher than last place teams Kansas City and Baltimore combined (-96) and even if Pittsburgh was like a bank and could write off it’s bad debt, they would still be the worst in baseball tossing away 20-0 meltdown to Milwaukee.

I just love the so-called experts who have fallen in love with saying starting pitching doesn’t mean what it used to. They site pitch counts, the lack of complete games and greater dependence on bullpens.

While those points are mildly valid, their reference point is like that of politician selectively choosing quasi-numbers and facts to make a point.

The Los Angeles Dodgers started the year with one of the best offenses in the National League, yet on the morning of May 9 were 13-17 and being written off for their lack of pitching.

Joe Torre’s starting pitchers finally found a groove and in harmony with those in the bullpen, put together a streak in which they conceded 2.0 runs per game and the Dodgers won nine in a row, while a bit over average in runs scored at 5.5 compared to 5.2 for the season.

What changed was the starters began throwing strikes, which led to more innings of success with lower pitch counts. This helped setup the pen with pitchers in their normal roles of coming in the game in the seventh, eighth or ninth innings, which is their comfort zone and once success was achieved, the confidence swelled among the entire staff.

The days of complete games and high pitch counts are gone; nevertheless if the starting pitcher can take a tie game or lead into the final three innings, most baseball bettors are positioned to earn a victory.

Happy Mother's Day to All

Picked up three more winners on Saturday taking us to 33-15, yippy-skippy. Let’s begin with Top Trend in totals area that is unbeaten. Kendall is blazing coming into Mother’s Day and has NL West Free selection. The Best System is 83.3 percent in the land of 10,000 or more lakes. Good Luck

What I thought today- It’s hard to go wrong listening to your mom.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like the O’s, an AL team batting .260 or less, against a team with a good bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or less), with a starting pitcher whose gives up less than home run every two starts. Since 2006 this baseball system is 40-8, 83.3 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Royals Luke Hochevar is 11-0 OVER vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last two seasons with average score 13.1 runs per contest.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Kendall’s on a 16-4 roll and has the Rockies to continue winning despite being injury plagued.

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Sunday May 2 - Are you ready?

Suffered a rare losing day on Saturday, taking us to 22-9 the last 10 posts. Today we go after another Best System winner that is 56-11 since 2006. Hope to get back in the winner’s circle with Top Trend. Thanks to Steve for his great work with our free picks which moves us on to Ron who has hit a good streak in progress. Good Luck

What I'm thinking today- As much as I like to bet horse racing, I don’t really believe there is any way to beat it on a continual basis unless you have the time to study a track or two in session and know everything about it. That said when I have an outstanding day like yesterday at the Derby; it makes you appreciate it that much more.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road teams like Pittsburgh with a meager OBP of .310 or worse, against a sharp NL starting pitcher with a WHIP under 1.250, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. Over the past five seasons this superlative system is 56-11, 83.6 percent.

Free Hockey Trend -2) Montreal is 3-17 in the second round of the playoffs since 1996.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron is 7-1 in MLB action the last three days and doesn’t believe Baltimore can sweep Boston on Sunday.

Base Hits can lead to Big Profits

While going thru Bill James 2010 “Gold Mine” book, came across statistical information that only baseball nuts would enjoy.

Part of James wisdom is taking something simple and applying it in common sense manner. For example if you score more runs than your opponent you will win 100 percent of the time. Pretty straight forward.

The article went on to talk above the value of base hits. No discussion of home runs, doubles, walks or even on-base percentage, just hitting the ball where the fielder cannot catch it.
Last season if you take away the all games that each team had the same number of hits in a ballgame; the final record was 1,766-433, a winning percentage of .803 for the club with more base hits in a single contest.

The light bulb switch went on in my dome and I started to wonder how this plays out for wagering purposes.

Pulled out all 30 teams’ home games (no reason to road contests since it’s the same) and looked to see what kind of profits are to be found in this fact-finding mission.

The most obvious aspect uncovered is there is a lot of money to be made by correctly determining the team that will have the higher amount of hits.

In the National League, teams with most base knocks are 105-34, 75.5 percent this season (thru 4-27). This generates a profit of +70.05 units. It goes without saying nobody is going to wager on every baseball game every day, still not many systems of any kind are going to yield these sorts of profits looking at each contest. How this ends up being such a money-maker is of the 105 wins, 37 were underdogs, help building the bankroll.

In the American League, the news is even better despite fewer games because of two less teams. Here we have an overall record of 89-25, 78.0 percent, yielding a handsome profit +70.25. Once again a healthy number of underdogs were part of the equation, as 36 of 89 winners were not favored. (Tampa Bay 12-1 when they outhit opposition)

In the interest of disclosure, this sample is just from April and no real way to know if these profits would hold up over a whole season, but based on “Gold Mine’s” findings, no reason to believe they shouldn’t.

Our next step is identifying how one could determine what teams will out-hit their opponents. Let’s start with taking swings at the dish.

Major League clubs that are near or above the median levels of batting average and have three or more games with nine or more hits have to be considered a play on team. When teams have this many base hits consistently, that probably means three players in the line-up are stroking it and as is the case of most hitting streaks, they can go along for about a week seeing the ball really well.

Conversely, when teams are totaling six or fewer hits for a few outings, this might be the time to play against them since they are likely swinging at pitcher’s pitches and being less selective, getting themselves out if you will.

Another factor is once a series of events has occurred, there is likely to be a reaction to them. Much of this is following detail. On April 17, the San Francisco Giants destroyed the Dodgers 9-0. Over the next seven games they total 11 runs and had a stretch of four games in the middle section where they had seven or fewer hits four times. In the last contest of the seven, they were shutout 2-0 by Brad Penny and the Cardinals, but showed signs of breaking out of slump with nine hits.

No question conventional wisdom would have suggested San Francisco would have a difficult time with Roy Halladay in town in next outing, however in the bigger picture, Jonathan Sanchez of the Giants had permitted 11 hits in 19.3 innings and Philadelphia had been outhit in all three games in Arizona. If you saw this entire view, the Giants at +135 home underdog becomes far more attractive and they won 5-1.

Another example of finding value with teams swinging the lumber was Baltimore on Tuesday night. The Orioles have the worst team in the Major’s and their most recent streak had reached five straight losses playing in Boston.

Baltimore started to show signs of coming out of this deep slumber with back to back nine hit games, though they only totaled four runs. After those two games they had 17 players hit their way on base, but lost 7-6 this past Saturday. That was three strong days hitting the baseball and they finally broke into the win column as +140 underdogs with 7-6 triumph, ripping 14 more hits.

It certainly would take a strong cup of courage, but here the O’s stood at 3-16, playing at home where they had not won a game (0-6) this season and were +155 underdogs to the Yankees.
However, weigh these elements. Baltimore was swing hot bats, they wanted to win at home against a tormenting team and despite their starter Kevin Millwood having 0-3 record, he had a 3.38 ERA going in the contest as his teammates had scored eight runs in his four starts in 2010. The Birds were outhit 9-7 by New York, but their increased patience at the dish produced six walks and the O’s were a very rewarding 5-4 winner as large ML pooch.

The other area to consider is the pitchers. This is a more complicated discussion because of the variables.

Hurlers that allow fewer hits than innings pitched and have modest walk totals are good wagers, especially with above average strikeout to walk ratios.

Starting pitchers that keep the hits down and have a history of being successful on the road are a terrific value as underdogs or small favorites. Pitching matchups also lend themselves to winning.

Any sports bettor loves an ace vs. a No. 5 starter, unfortunately that comes at a cost, namely a high money line. If the team’s No. 1 guy is backed by his club smacking the horsehide when he’s on the mound, the run line becomes more attractive option.

Better value can often be found when the No. 2 or 3 starter is facing a worst starting pitcher on the other team and as long as the presumed favorite is in good form and the better pitcher is not slumping, this too can be a smart wager.

There are many other scenarios, but one last important aspect to think about is the bullpen. Everything can be in order, yet a lousy bullpen with gruesome ERA and a vast number of blown saves can turn winners into losers quickly, be cognizant of this material.

To wrap this up, hitting the ball around the yard can lead to more winners than you thought possible. Stay current with the numbers and you can build your bankroll more rapidly.

One final bit of information from James book. When a team outhits the other by nine or more coming into this season, they are 197-0 all time.

Hump Day Stuff after 3-0 day

Pulled out the old Devo album (Whip it, whip it good) for a 3-0 Tuesday. We can actually improve on that number today with two plays from system that over 90 percent. The Top Trend takes place on the South Side of Chicago and the Free Play is in the Queen City. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday- The Reds rallied for two runs in the bottom of the eighth to defeat the Dodgers, 11-9. Cincinnati has six wins this season, and all have come in their last at-bat, tying a modern major-league record. Since 1900, only one other team posted each of its first six wins in its final turn at the plate: the 1970 Giants.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, with AL batting average of .265 or less, against decent starting pitcher (ERA of 4.20 or less), who are batting .225 or worse over their last five games. This system is incredible 44-4 and says to go against the Orioles and Rangers.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Mark Buehrle and the Pale Hose are 15-2 when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve got us a winner and is banking on the Dodgers to do the same.

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The baseball train keeps chuggin'

The schedule might appear lighter in baseball action with just eight games on the board; however that doesn’t mean opportunity doesn’t exist. We went thru and isolated four specific MLB systems that are thought provoking and should have a well above average chance of being profitable to start another week of baseball betting. Sides and totals from DiamondSportsbook.com.

St. Louis at Arizona 9:40E

The Cardinals are already in first place in the NL Central, where they are expected to end up at the end of the season. You can’t blame St. Louis if they a trifle fatigued off 20-inning game Saturday and a tense come from behind effort 5-3 win over the New York Mets last evening.

St. Louis has left 32 men on base the last two contests (22 in the marathon) and are a -129 money line favorite in the desert against angry Arizona club that was swept by San Diego and has lost four in a row.

Here we look to Play Against road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 after two straight games where they stranded 10 or more runners on base, in the first half of the season. These teams are unsightly 12-33, 27.7 percent.

San Francisco at San Diego 10:05E

Even after losing series to the Dodgers, San Francisco maintained lead in the NL West with 8-4 record. The Giants continue their road trip further south down the California coast to San Diego.

The oddsmaker looked at the Matt Cain vs Clayton Richard matchup and studied two good bullpens and hung out an Un7 on this confrontation. With this setup, we found a 52-19 system that suggests to Play Over on road teams when the total is 7 to 8.5, after a loss, on a club with a winning percentage of 62% or better on the season.

Detroit at L.A. Angels 10:05E

Last week was not a good for Detroit, dropping two series and losing four of six games. Like many teams this time of year, the Tigers are attempting to put together a consistent bullpen and though the ERA of 3.21 appears more than adequate, too many runners are scoring in hold situations and they have surrendered 64 hits and walks (44-H, 20-W) in 42 innings, for WHIP of 1.524.

In the last three seasons, road clubs with bullpen WHIP between 1.450 to 1.550 on the year, who are a good fielding team, turning 1.1 or more double plays per game are 33-74.

Baltimore at Seattle 10:10E

There had to be a general sense of relief in Baltimore dugout as they ended their nine-game losing streak in being victorious for the just the second time this season yesterday in 8-3 triumph over Oakland.

Even with the offensive outburst, the Orioles are batting puny .234 as a team, with on-base percentage of .292, while scoring 3.2 runs per game.

Seattle’s return to the state of Washington has boosted their play, with two series victories. The pitching has been the difference and the bullpen has sharp with 3.29 ERA on the year (1.17 ERA at Safeco Park). The Mariners are a -148 money line favorite with total Ov8. Keep in mind, American League teams hitting less than .260, facing a bullpen with ERA under 3.33, on Monday’s, are 39-14 UNDER the last 13 years.

MLB 2010 Previews

American League East

Now the breaking news: Yankees and Red Sox favored in American East, more details as soon as they are available. OK, a little too much hype for stating the obvious. This division has the two best clubs in baseball (sorry Philadelphia) and everyone else is chasing. Tampa Bay has made improvements, but likely has to hope for injuries into order to make playoffs as wild card. Baltimore is two years ahead of Toronto in rebuilding process, thus avoids the division’s lowest floor.

Baltimore Orioles

Strengths: Finally understanding you can’t buy a pennant (let alone a division crown) competing with the New York Yankees. Andy MacPhail was brought in as president of baseball operations and immediately put the people in place that started doing a better job in finding talent. Baltimore has a number of pitchers that either are or will be on the Major League 25-man roster soon and the outfield is set with four solid players in the program. Matt Weiters is the trumpeted catcher ready to be a leader.

Weaknesses: Save Brian Roberts, the infield doesn’t earn rave reviews. The bullpen doesn’t fall into the category of “shorten the game” and depth is almost nonexistent.

Rotation Outlook: Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Guthrie will be who the Birds young pitchers lean on during trying times. Millwood lowered his ERA by almost 40 percent getting into better shape and quit nibbling; he should do at least as well in bigger park, with run production less in Orioles uniform. Keep an eye on Guthrie after K’s were down and hits were up in losing 17 games. Good young arms that need innings otherwise.

Bullpen Situation: Mike Gonzalez is likely closer after falling out of favor in Atlanta. In order to keep job, needs calmer demeanor on the mound and handle adversity better. Jim Johnson has unorthodox delivery and can pitch in variety of roles, increasing his value.

Bookmaker.com Season Wins Prop: Over 74/Under 74

3Daily Winners Take: Definitely a better team, but until they prove they won’t make mistakes that the cost them games, it’s hard to see them mounting 74 wins, something they haven’t done since 2005.

Projected Finish: 4th in AL East

Take to the bank: If the Birds lose 61 road games again, even 70 wins would be a stretch.

Boston Red Sox

Strengths: When you have won 93 or more games six of the last seven years, you have a good organization that understands what it takes to win and stay at the highest levels of the game. Theo Epstein and Terry Francona find players that are “gamers” who are full effort guys the lead by example. A corral of young arms is always coming thru the farm system, to be used on the big club or as trade bait to fill a need. Of course having the Yankees as a foil only makes everyone work harder.

Weaknesses: A lack of star power as part of the everyday lineup. Players like Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis are overachievers more than anything. Lineup doesn’t have a great deal of power unless a slimmed down David Ortiz delivers.

Rotation Outlook: The old line of –You can never have enough starting pitching- is what convinced Boston to sign John Lackey. The former Angel has to make the mental adjustment to being the No. 3 starter after being the ace in Anaheim. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester are two power pitchers capable of mowing hitters for innings. Francona is counting on Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka to come around mentally as much as physically to help the Red Sox. Catcher Victor Martinez is under pressure to handle this staff properly after so many years with Jason Varitek.

Bullpen Situation: Having Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard in place is a situation any manager would like to turn to. Getting to this twosome is the only real question if a starter has an off day.

Bookmaker.com Season Wins Prop: Over 94.5/Under 94.5

3DW Take: This total is almost impossible wager since luck more than skill will determine the outcome over 162-game season. Forced to choose I’ll go Under with offense not quite as good as needed to overcome Yankees in head to head battles.

Projected Finish: 2nd in AL East

Take to the bank: As good as they are, can the BoSox really go 22-6 again as -200 or higher money line favorites?

New York Yankees

Strengths: To Yankees fans, order was restored winning their 27th World Series. Based on how the table is set, defending their title is a real possibility. All the notables are still in pinstripes and the addition of Curtis Ganderson in centerfield, Nick Johnson as left-handed DH and pitcher Javier Vazquez makes New York look even stronger on paper. You’ll notice also, with Hank Steinbrenner the figurehead, everything is much quieter and the Yankees seem almost likable to many more people. (I did say almost)

Weaknesses: The Yankees did lose middle relievers that ended up being very effectual in the second half of the season. Derek Jeter is the current version of “Mr. Yankee” but no shortstop has less range in the baseball as the years total up according to sabermetricians. Catcher Jorge Posado would be a welcome DH on many teams, since his catching skills continue to diminish.
Rotation Outlook: It has to be very comforting to C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett to know their teammates are going to bat no matter how they perform. This pair could well be better pitchers this year, more relaxed, not worried about living up to fat contracts and having the satisfaction of being champions. Andy Pettitte and Vazquez are vets who know how to pitch and Phil Hughes won the No. 5 starter slot.

Bullpen Situation: Manager Joe Girardi will figure out middle relief as the season wears own, made easier having Jobs Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera. Enough said.

Bookmaker.com Season Wins Prop: Over 95.5/Under 95.5

3DW Take: Certain players like Jeter, Posada and A-Rod are year older and might not as effective, but a Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano and Granderson can help out and keep the Bronx Bombers hitting machine churning. Betting over feels risky when it’s the highest total to wager on, however this again looks like a team easily capable of 100 or more victories.

Projected Finish: 1st in AL East

Take to the bank: Yankees can’t possibly improve on 45-13 record in games decided by two or three runs.

Tampa Bay Rays

Strengths: Around the horn, this might be the best infield in the majors considering hitting and fielding. From 1B Carlos Pena to 3B Evan Longoria, power, speed and flashy leather abounds. At 28, Carl Crawford is one of the best left-fielders in baseball. The starting pitchers had to deal with expectations as year ago after playing in World Series and should be better mentally equipped to handle the load.

Weaknesses: Pitching nevertheless is still a concern, wondering if they actually will mature. Bullpen needs improvement as does catcher Dioner Navarro and increasingly enigmatic CF B.J. Upton, who needs to bring lunch pail to work. The fans, Tampa drew less than 100,000 new people to the park after going to World Series.

Rotation Outlook: James Shields and Matt Garza both had losing records at the top of the rotation for team that still managed 84 wins. For the Rays to eat at the big boys table, this duo has to be at 30 wins or more, not 20. Jeff Niemann is 6’9 and pounds the lower legions of the strike zone. He and ultra-talented David Price could make this staff special being able to win a vast number of series.

Bullpen Situation: After brilliant 2008, serious regression last season. Manager Joe Maddon has stated Rafael Soriano is just the type of closer this club needs. Getting Dan Wheeler and others back on track puts Tampa Bay back in AL East contention.

Bookmaker.com Season Wins Prop: Over 89/Under 89

3DW Take: Two years ago, this looked like team that would contend for years with Boston and New York. However, the lack of interest by fans in the Tampa area means continued counting of nickels and dimes. With Crawford and Pena up for free agency after the season, this team has to win now. With starting pitching a little iffy, 87 wins is thought to be high water mark.

Projected Finish: 3rd in AL East

Take to the bank: The Rays won’t sniff 87 wins if they only win 32 games on the road like they did last season.

Toronto Blue Jays

Strengths: Losing Ray Halladay would be a blow to any team; however they wouldn’t have led the majors in ERA in 2008 if they didn’t have other pitchers that could throw competently. Last season, Toronto was just bitten by the injury bug, they had total infestation. Many, if not all pitchers are expected to return and the others will come around soon. The organization accepts they have to rebuild after finishing the season 48-73, which is the only way to compete with New York and Boston in the AL East in the coming years. Aaron Hill will look to match last year’s breakout season of 36 home runs and 108 RBI’s.

Weaknesses: Every day lineup has overpaid underachievers like Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay, both need to start earning their keep. The bullpen really wore down being called into action too frequently with all the injuries and nothing appears to be a whole lot better, as they won’t get that day of rest every fifth day with Halladay in Philadelphia.

Rotation Outlook: Place Shaun Marcum and Ricky Romeo as starters, with the rest being sorted out by manager Cito Gaston. Marc Rzepczynski will have to work his way back in May after suffering a fractured finger. Holdovers Brian Tallet and Brett Cecil should be starters in Blue Jays uniform. In a division with three teams capable of winning 90 or more games not having starting pitching in order makes for tenuous prospects.

Bullpen Situation: Jason Frasor is the closer in spite of 5’10 175 pound frame. Frasor has live arm and is extremely aggressive with mid-90’s heat and has a tight late breaking slider. Scott Downs is good compliment as port-sider, touching 90 MPH on occasion, but more of a ground ball pitcher. Brandon Morrow and Scott Richmond fit into this mix somewhere.

Bookmaker.com Season Wins Prop: Over 70.5/Under 70.5

3DW Take: It’s absurd to think Toronto was actually 27-14 in May a year ago before they came unhinged. A few quality players dot the roster, just not enough in the AL East. Ability to climb over 70 wins could be determined by how they play against National League at home in June, where they will face the Giants, Cardinals and Phillies. Voting Under.

Projected Finish: 5th in AL East

Take to the bank: Toronto was 42-30 against the AL Central and West, I’d rather bet Kate Gosselin makes DWTS finals.

To view the other division previews click on the one of choice: AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West.

Wednesday's Best and Unreal Story

We are going to take 2-1 record for yesterday, because our system play was based on Tim Lincecum pitching and the line falling in certain parameters, which ultimately did not happen. Consider a bet with listed pitchers. And yes if the Giants had won I’d be writing the same thing. Have a Top Trend that is difficult to believe. The Best System today happens to be in article form, thus we’ll grab the next best one at 82.5 percent. Good Luck

What I learned today- A lot of people don’t like handicappers that are slimy by appearance and by their actions in telling half truths or outright lies. They pale in comparison to these slime balls. http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/zombie-bankers-haunt-wall-street.aspx

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) We’ve used this system a number of times this year and it keeps working. PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like Baltimore, after allowing 10 runs or more. Let the record show 104-22 mark, 82.5 percent the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) This trend is actually in the article below and awfully hard to ignore. Jeff Suppan of the Brewers is 1-21 as an underdog of +175 to +250 in his career. (Team's Record)

Free Baseball Pick -3) Slick is 11-4 and picked up over 10 single units (for the sake of making this easier to understand) since last Saturday. His best play was on St. Louis, but his next best is on Arizona which is still open.

Paul Buck finished the weekend in college football with 6-3 record and 3Daily Winners was 3-1 since Saturday. Review our Guaranteed Pick packages and start winning.

StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet has terrific information

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Monday Night Football Preview

As far as NFL preseason games go, this Monday night contest has a number of story lines to follow. The New York Jets have a new head coach in Rex Ryan and it is taking all of one game to return to Baltimore, where he spent the last 10 years, the last four as defensive coordinator. While Ryan will acquaint himself with friends on the Ravens sidelines and others in the stands, he will have to soon make his first really challenging decision of who will the Flyboys starting quarterback.

In many ways it’s a no-lose decision, since top draft choice Mark Sanchez will be under center as the starting quarterback in New York eventually. Sanchez is battling with holdover Kellen Clemens and the former USC Trojan will take the field first when the Jets have the ball on Monday.

New York lost at home to St. Louis 23-20 as four-point favorites and arrives in Baltimore in a favorable spot. The Jets are three-point underdogs at DiamondSportsbook.com and underdogs (or Pick) off an upset loss as a favorite are 29-9 ATS this week of the preseason.

Sanchez, Clemens and Erik Anige will go against what has been one the best defenses of this decade in the Ravens. Linebacker Ray Lewis may no longer have the speed and quickness of a few seasons ago, yet he spearheads a fearsome bunch that enjoys hitting whatever moves in opposing uniforms. The defense befuddled Washington last week, holding them to 196 total points and kept them from registering any points.

Offensively, second year signal caller Joe Flacco was efficient 9-of-15 for 103 yards in two series and will see greater action this week. Troy Smith will follow Flacco after throwing for 200 yards last week, part of the 500 yards the Ravens totaled. With John Beck out with shoulder injury, Baltimore signed Cleo Lemon this week, since he is familiar with offensive coordinator Cam Cameron's system, having played in Miami when Cameron was there. With last week’s shutout win, Baltimore is 4-5 ATS at home the last five years in the preseason.

Oddsmakers have set the total at 32.5 and which would appear to favor New York who is 11-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 35 or less. The low figure could also attract the attention of totals players, with the Ravens 22-10 UNDER as a favorite and 11-2 UNDER as a home favorite of three points or less.

Kickoff is set for 8 Eastern on ESPN with New York 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight preseason games as the visitor.