Defense could reign at Holiday Bowl

The chant “D-Fence” might be ringing around Qualcomm Park for this addition of the 2009 Holiday Bowl. If this is low-scoring defense struggle, don’t be surprised, since Nebraska ranks ninth in total defense and Arizona comes in 20th among FBS schools. Those who watched the Big 12 championship game, viewed just how good defensive tackle Nudamukong Suh and the rest of the Nebraska defense is in almost taking down Texas.

Nebraska (9-4, 8-4 ATS) was a foot away from an upset of the Longhorns and a BCS berth in the Big 12 title game. Instead, the Longhorns winning field goal snuck inside the upright. Now the Cornhuskers must regroup and prepare for Arizona who can also play a little D. The children of the corn are 8-3 ATS against teams with winning records.

The Wildcats finished 11th in the country against the run and they will look to corral Roy Helu, one of the more underrated backs in the country. Quarterback Zac Lee does not appear to pose a threat, since he has neither the arm, accuracy nor poise under pressure to run long drives against a defense like Arizona. The Cats are 2-7-1 ATS in last 10 non-conference clashes and can turn some heads with a win in San Diego.

For long time Holiday Bowl aficionados, this is the second ever rematch, with these teams having competed in 1998. The Wildcats (8-4, 6-6 ATS) won 23-20 on that day and they will be after a second trophy.

Arizona’s season took off when Nick Foles took over as quarterback, giving them diversity on offense. The Wildcats will face a very good Nebraska pass defense and he will have to make quick reads and release the ball for a team that is 9-3 ATS as underdogs.

For all of Nebraska’s previous excellence, they are pedestrian 23-22 and 16-15 ATS after the regular season. The line movement has been wild on this matchup. The Cornhuskers started as favorites, were sent to underdogs by early bettors, with the late money reestablishing them as three-point favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com. No matter who is the favorite, it’s been a good thing in this spot with 10-3 SU and ATS in this encounter since 1996.

Arizona has a three bowl winning streak, however it dates back to 1997 and they are 6-7-1 and 6-4-1 ATS all-time. Since 1998, this has been a Big 12-Pac 10 tilt, with the teams from out west 8-3 ATS. In the last dozen years, the Big 12 is 3-9 ATS.

Both defenses would seem to have decided edges over respective offenses, but both could force turnovers or create field position advantages that could lead to points, thus the Under isn’t a guarantee.

ESPN has this surely physical battle at 8:00 Eastern and Nebraska’s outstanding kicker Alex Henery could be the difference in a tight tilt.

3DW Line – Nebraska by 4

Oregon and Oklahoma State Mean Points in Holiday Bowl

If you are looking to be entertained, it might make sense to plan Tuesday night watching a college bowl game where points will not be in short supply. Oregon comes in averaging 41.9 points per game and Oklahoma State is right behind them 41.6 points. Both schools offer splendid running games that total up yardage faster than a grocery store bill to feed a family of six and have capable running backs that can go the distance at a moments notice.

Oklahoma State (9-3, 8-3 ATS) may be favored by 2.5-points, but one of the most dangerous offenses in the country this side of Norman will invade San Diego. The Oregon Ducks (9-3, 6-6 ATS) are averaging 45 points per game in last five contests, with a running game totaling 281.6 yards per game during the same period. The Ducks have double-barreled duo in senior Jeremiah Johnson and junior LeGarrette Blount, who combined for 2,100 yards and 28 trips to the end zone. Oregon has covered five of last six as bowl underdogs.

Oklahoma State running proficiency isn’t far behind at 256 yards per game and 5.6 per carry. They utilize the talents of Kendall Hunter, who ran for over 1,500 yards along with a few other backs. Quarterback Zac Robinson is the one who runs the show, being a skilled runner and excellent thrower, good for 2,735 yards with 24 TDs and eight interceptions this season. Oklahoma State’s only fault this season was being in wrong division, matched up against Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech, all resulting in losses. The Cowboys off the Sooners loss are 7-2 ATS off a defeat and 4-1 against the number if they permitted 40 or more points.

This marks a unique return for Okie State coach Mike Gundy, who becomes the first person to play and coach in the Holiday Bowl. He’s looking forward to the experience. We’re very excited about heading to San Diego for the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl,” Gundy said. “It was a tremendous experience for me as a player and I’m happy our team will get to enjoy San Diego and the festivities that surround a great bowl game. … We look forward to playing an excellent Oregon team.” Oklahoma State is just 1-4 ATS when favored by three or less points, but Robinson will be matched against the 108th ranked pass defense in the country.

Oregon’s coach Mike Bellotti knows what to expect, “Both of these teams run the ball really well,” Bellotti said. “But in the final analysis the team that plays the best defense in the game is going to win.” His team will look to exploit Cowboys defense which allowed 38.1 points per game against the six bowl teams they faced this season. Bellotti’s teams are on 10-2 ATS in non-conference action.

Oklahoma State is among your better bowl teams with 12-6 record and sporting outstanding 7-1-1 ATS mark as favorite. The Ducks are 5-3 ATS as dogs and 6-5 ATS under coach Bellotti. Big 12 favorites have failed to cover over 77 percent of the time in bowls against the Pac-10.
In the long history of this bowl, the favorite is 11-17 ATS, winning the last two. More often then not, the OVER has been the correct total, presently on a 5-3 run the last eight matchups. Keep an eye on this tidbit; Pac-10 underdogs have paid up 80 percent of the time in last 20 bowl games.

ESPN has coverage starting at 8 Eastern for this year’s Holiday Bowl.