Cross country travel having impact on baseball betting

With the month of August now front and center, thoughts of football have started creeping into those betting on sports and fantasy football enthusiasts. The idea slipped into my head about one of the more common aspects of football betting often discussed, cross-country trips. The reasons are obvious why this situation is problematic, as players have to adjust body-clocks when changing three time zones and might not be fully prepared physically or mentally come game time.

This led to pulling out shovel and seeing if this had any impact on Major League Baseball.

The criteria set up was a team had to fly East or West thru three time zones. I neglected to worry about if there was a day off in between games and used only the initial contest as a benchmark.

At the start of this season, I disregarded the Los Angeles Dodgers beginning play in Pittsburgh, since they had ample time to arrive. I did however count teams from the East that flew West for a couple of series and traveled back towards home base, but played one more road series in their regular time zone after again jetting across the lower 48.

Baseball has differences compared to football that can be nit-picked, like starting pitcher situations are always different, making money lines more volatile. Certain divisions can be stronger or weaker, however that would also be true of football, studying an extended period of time.

Since I do not recall seeing this information in the marketplace recently, my first thought was it might be pointless, with nothing being learned one way or the other.

Started with 2009 to get a full season record and had to admit, was underwhelmed. The overall record was nondescript 31-32, -3.35 units. That season the AL West was the big loser with 3-9 record and -6 units.

Undeterred, went back one more year to 2008 and found something more worthwhile. This particular year the final record was 26-38 for -6.85 units lost. That season was all over the board, as the AL Central was 0-5, all as underdogs. The AL West was 9-8, but nicely profitable +5 units thanks to seven underdogs winning outright. The NL West was the difference-maker with 4-11 mark, losing 7.15 units.

This study moved ahead to this year’s baseball action and the results were more of what was expected. Time travelers are 16-24, -8.7 units on the season with nine weeks left in the regular season, a fairly notable figure.

In football, this is one condition that arises annually, however it is largely ignored in baseball.
A further breakdown has well-travelled road underdogs 35-66, -25.15 and visiting favorites 38-28, +6.25 units. Both numbers are about what one might expect, with the former possibly having a slightly higher loss percentage.

Our almost three-year results wind up 73-94, -18.9 units. This isn’t knowledge that will make you rich, but it can put extra cash in your pocket the next time this situation pops up for the shrewd baseball bettor.

Base Hits can lead to Big Profits

While going thru Bill James 2010 “Gold Mine” book, came across statistical information that only baseball nuts would enjoy.

Part of James wisdom is taking something simple and applying it in common sense manner. For example if you score more runs than your opponent you will win 100 percent of the time. Pretty straight forward.

The article went on to talk above the value of base hits. No discussion of home runs, doubles, walks or even on-base percentage, just hitting the ball where the fielder cannot catch it.
Last season if you take away the all games that each team had the same number of hits in a ballgame; the final record was 1,766-433, a winning percentage of .803 for the club with more base hits in a single contest.

The light bulb switch went on in my dome and I started to wonder how this plays out for wagering purposes.

Pulled out all 30 teams’ home games (no reason to road contests since it’s the same) and looked to see what kind of profits are to be found in this fact-finding mission.

The most obvious aspect uncovered is there is a lot of money to be made by correctly determining the team that will have the higher amount of hits.

In the National League, teams with most base knocks are 105-34, 75.5 percent this season (thru 4-27). This generates a profit of +70.05 units. It goes without saying nobody is going to wager on every baseball game every day, still not many systems of any kind are going to yield these sorts of profits looking at each contest. How this ends up being such a money-maker is of the 105 wins, 37 were underdogs, help building the bankroll.

In the American League, the news is even better despite fewer games because of two less teams. Here we have an overall record of 89-25, 78.0 percent, yielding a handsome profit +70.25. Once again a healthy number of underdogs were part of the equation, as 36 of 89 winners were not favored. (Tampa Bay 12-1 when they outhit opposition)

In the interest of disclosure, this sample is just from April and no real way to know if these profits would hold up over a whole season, but based on “Gold Mine’s” findings, no reason to believe they shouldn’t.

Our next step is identifying how one could determine what teams will out-hit their opponents. Let’s start with taking swings at the dish.

Major League clubs that are near or above the median levels of batting average and have three or more games with nine or more hits have to be considered a play on team. When teams have this many base hits consistently, that probably means three players in the line-up are stroking it and as is the case of most hitting streaks, they can go along for about a week seeing the ball really well.

Conversely, when teams are totaling six or fewer hits for a few outings, this might be the time to play against them since they are likely swinging at pitcher’s pitches and being less selective, getting themselves out if you will.

Another factor is once a series of events has occurred, there is likely to be a reaction to them. Much of this is following detail. On April 17, the San Francisco Giants destroyed the Dodgers 9-0. Over the next seven games they total 11 runs and had a stretch of four games in the middle section where they had seven or fewer hits four times. In the last contest of the seven, they were shutout 2-0 by Brad Penny and the Cardinals, but showed signs of breaking out of slump with nine hits.

No question conventional wisdom would have suggested San Francisco would have a difficult time with Roy Halladay in town in next outing, however in the bigger picture, Jonathan Sanchez of the Giants had permitted 11 hits in 19.3 innings and Philadelphia had been outhit in all three games in Arizona. If you saw this entire view, the Giants at +135 home underdog becomes far more attractive and they won 5-1.

Another example of finding value with teams swinging the lumber was Baltimore on Tuesday night. The Orioles have the worst team in the Major’s and their most recent streak had reached five straight losses playing in Boston.

Baltimore started to show signs of coming out of this deep slumber with back to back nine hit games, though they only totaled four runs. After those two games they had 17 players hit their way on base, but lost 7-6 this past Saturday. That was three strong days hitting the baseball and they finally broke into the win column as +140 underdogs with 7-6 triumph, ripping 14 more hits.

It certainly would take a strong cup of courage, but here the O’s stood at 3-16, playing at home where they had not won a game (0-6) this season and were +155 underdogs to the Yankees.
However, weigh these elements. Baltimore was swing hot bats, they wanted to win at home against a tormenting team and despite their starter Kevin Millwood having 0-3 record, he had a 3.38 ERA going in the contest as his teammates had scored eight runs in his four starts in 2010. The Birds were outhit 9-7 by New York, but their increased patience at the dish produced six walks and the O’s were a very rewarding 5-4 winner as large ML pooch.

The other area to consider is the pitchers. This is a more complicated discussion because of the variables.

Hurlers that allow fewer hits than innings pitched and have modest walk totals are good wagers, especially with above average strikeout to walk ratios.

Starting pitchers that keep the hits down and have a history of being successful on the road are a terrific value as underdogs or small favorites. Pitching matchups also lend themselves to winning.

Any sports bettor loves an ace vs. a No. 5 starter, unfortunately that comes at a cost, namely a high money line. If the team’s No. 1 guy is backed by his club smacking the horsehide when he’s on the mound, the run line becomes more attractive option.

Better value can often be found when the No. 2 or 3 starter is facing a worst starting pitcher on the other team and as long as the presumed favorite is in good form and the better pitcher is not slumping, this too can be a smart wager.

There are many other scenarios, but one last important aspect to think about is the bullpen. Everything can be in order, yet a lousy bullpen with gruesome ERA and a vast number of blown saves can turn winners into losers quickly, be cognizant of this material.

To wrap this up, hitting the ball around the yard can lead to more winners than you thought possible. Stay current with the numbers and you can build your bankroll more rapidly.

One final bit of information from James book. When a team outhits the other by nine or more coming into this season, they are 197-0 all time.

Baseball Series Wagering - Tigers at Mariners

After finishing 4-2 on their first homestand of the season, Detroit returns to the road for their longest trip of the year, playing 11 games in 11 days against three teams from the American League West starting in Seattle. The Tigers (6-3, +1.3 units) have been the comeback kids thus far with five of their wins coming after trailing.

Another comeback story is pitcher Jeremy Bonderman. The right-hander gave up one hit and one run while striking out five in five innings in a 4-2 win over Cleveland last Saturday. That was Bonderman’s first victory in nearly two years, bouncing back from surgery that broke up a blood clot in his throwing shoulder.

“It was fun to just get back on the mound, compete and be who I am and not worry about my arm hurting,” Bonderman said. “It’s been a long journey back, but I’m hoping I got 35 more starts in and hopefully we can do something special.”

The 27-year old is making the change from a hard-thrower to pitcher. “That was really Jeremy Bonderman the pitcher," Leyland said of his first start in 2010, "not Jeremy Bonderman the 95-96-mph fastball, hard slider. He pitched, and that's the adjustment that he's going to have to make. We're tickled to death today. That's progress, and that's something you have to build on."

His mound opponent for first game is 100 percent healthy and one of the best pitchers in baseball, Felix Hernandez. Seattle’s ace right-hander starts the season with 3.29 ERA, but no-decisions, providing two quality starts on the road, both Mariners wins. This makes it Hernandez first time to take the mound at Safeco Field and he and Mariners’ teammates are 27-9 the last two years he’s been the starter.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Seattle as -182 money line favorites in the first contest of the series with total Ov7. King Felix is 27-8 when the total is 7 to 8.5 (Mariners Record) and 10-1 OVER as a home favorite of -175 to -200. Detroit is 3-9 in Game 1 of a series dating back to last season and is 7-1 in Bonderman’s previous eight road starts.

Game 1 Edge: Seattle

Seattle (4-6, -2 units) has begun the season very slow with the bats, averaging 2.8 runs per game, with sordid team batting average of .231. They have shown a few signs of starting to work their way out of it with nine or more hits in four of last five games. The Mariners are the only team in baseball that has yet to score more than five runs in single game and they might still be searching facing the Tigers ace Jason Verlander.

The 6’5 right-hander has dialed up the fastball into the upper-90’s, however has ERA of 9.00 because he’s lacked command of secondary pitches to retire hitters thus far. He’s making mistakes that are getting hit or batters are sitting dead-red in their second or third time at bat, not fearing Verlander can throw anything else over the plate. With Seattle still searching at the dish, Detroit’s top pitcher could go to 44-18 (Tigers Record) against losing teams.

Seattle counters with Ryan Rowland-Smith. The Aussie has a sound delivery with a tailing fastball, a big overhand curveball that he likes to use early in counts to go along with first-rate changeup. Rowland-Smith is known for throwing strikes, but is not a strike-out pitcher. If the lefty is taking his turn in the rotation in Game 2, Seattle has four-game winning streak.

Game 2 Edge: Detroit

The series finale is a wild card contest, at least as far as the pitching is concerned. The Tigers go with Max Scherzer, who throws 95 MPH fastball and has devastating sweeping slider when he’s on. Has tendency to get lazy with mechanics, which adds up pitch count unnecessarily or has one faulty inning that costs him. One aspect in his favor is Detroit is 36-18 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game coming into the series.

Ian Snell is making his third start of the year and comes in with ERA of 5. Snell would be described as a “slinger” with his three-quarters delivery style and follow thru. His fastball runs and sinks and he possesses a hard slider, but isn’t known as great listener and too easily loses command of the strike zone. Though a very good athlete, at 5’11 lacks the leverage to get extra tilt on his pitches when he tires. Snell is 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA in two career starts against the Tigers and Seattle begins the series having won 19 of last 26 at home.

Game 3 Edge: Detroit

The first two games have starting pitchers from each team that can dominate, which sets up a split. The starting pitching matchup for Game 3 is a push, however the Tigers bullpen and offense has been better thus far, making them the series play in the second weekend of baseball action.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Detroit +140 , Seattle -180

3Daily Winners Pick: Detroit

'Haunted' Milwaukee Hotel Spooks Baseball Teams

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Associated Press

MILWAUKEE — First Carlos Gomez heard voices. Then he watched his iPod go haywire after he got out of the shower, sending him scrambling for the lobby without stopping to put on his pants and shoes.

After last year's experience, the Minnesota Twins outfielder didn't want to go back to Milwaukee's Pfister Hotel. But Gomez had to stay there when the Twins were in town to play the Brewers last month, so he brought some protection: teammate-turned-roommate Francisco Liriano and a Bible.

"Everything's scary," Gomez said. "Everything in the hotel, the paintings and pictures, it's a lot of old, crazy stuff. No good, man. No good."

The Pfister is Milwaukee's most regal address, having hosted every U.S. president since William McKinley and scores of celebrities who can take a self-guided tour of the hotel's Victorian art collection. Today, it's the place to stay for upscale business travelers and out-of-town visitors, including many Major League Baseball teams. Commissioner Bud Selig, a Milwaukee native, is a frequent visitor.

But some players don't care for the 116-year-old hotel's posh accommodations and reputation for privacy. They swear it's haunted.

Gomez, San Francisco's Pablo Sandoval, St. Louis' Brendan Ryan and several Florida Marlins all say they've had odd experiences, though Ryan later said nothing really happened. Others aren't willing to talk publicly about what they've seen and heard.

Brewers visiting clubhouse manager Phil Rozewicz has heard it all from sleepy-eyed players who would rather hang out at Miller Park than spend one minute more than they have to at the Pfister.

"There was a rookie ball player and he was back in his room and he woke up in the middle of the night and his blinds were open, the window was opened and he was panicked," Rozewicz said.

"So he went into the bathroom, splashed water on his face, came back out and went to bed. Shut the blinds, the window. Woke up in the morning. Same thing. Slept on the couch in the lobby the next night. Refused to go to his room. Finally, went to a Motel 6 or whatever up the street and just stayed there."

Of course, some of this could be mischievous teammates pulling pranks. But Pfister ghost stories go well beyond the ballpark.

Allison Jornlin, who leads haunted history tours for the folklore research organization Milwaukee Ghosts, said guests have reported seeing a "portly, smiling gentleman" roaming the halls, riding the elevator and even walking his dog. The apparition is said to resemble Charles Pfister, who founded the hotel with his father, Guido.

"His ghost is thought, usually, to behave very well," Jornlin said. "But MLB players seem to bring out his mischievous side."

Why's that?

"Obviously, he's a Brewers fan," Jornlin said.

But even some of the Brewers won't stay there in the offseason.

"Even if I come into town for FanFest or whatever, I'm staying somewhere else," said Brewers center fielder Mike Cameron, who moved his family to another hotel after one night last offseason. "I mean, it's not a bad place. But there has been a lot of stories, a lot of creepy things that have gone on."

Hotel general manager Joe Kurth won't acknowledge any specific ghost stories from ballplayers or other guests, citing privacy concerns. But he doesn't shy away from the rumors, suggesting that guests interested in seeing a spirit might want to stay in the hotel's historic wing.

The Pfister does have its fans. Colorado Rockies manager Jim Tracy loves the quiet atmosphere, though the same couldn't be said for Tracy's players when he was managing the Los Angeles Dodgers.

"I was hearing suggestions, to the point that they were saying, "I've got to go to a different hotel,"' Tracy said.

That sounds familiar to Gomez, who said he hears voices and noises when he stays there and had his worst experience after hopping out of the shower last year.

He'd just started putting his clothes on when his iPod started playing with a static noise. He grabbed it and the iPod changed music suddenly before going to static again.

"I grabbed my pants and my shoes and I ran to the lobby," Gomez said.

Gomez wishes the Twins would stay somewhere else.

"I'm scared to go there," he said. "They should change the hotel. Everybody here doesn't like the hotel. Why (do) they always put us in the same hotel when you can't sleep?"

Minnesota Twins feasting in interleague action

Based on history, maybe the upper Midwest franchise, whose state borders Canada, should put in for moving to the National League and cause a reshuffling of the teams in Major League Baseball. Minnesota has won the World Series twice, in 1987 and again in 1991, before free agency removed the age of innocence. The Twins are and always will a small market team, but it has never stopped them from competing and they continue to be in the thick of the race in the AL Central, virtually every year.

Another characteristic of Minnesota baseball is their dominance in interleague play. The Twins have the second-best record in baseball since this began in 1997, trailing only the New York Yankees. With last’s night’s 8-2 win over Pittsburgh, Minnesota is 6-1 in interleague play in 2009, which follows the pattern they has established over the last 5+ years.

Since 2004, the Twinkies are tasty 66-31 (68 percent) against their National League counterparts and in the last three years, they are Richardo Montalban “Marvelous” 31-12, 72 percent. This season they are crushing those from the senior circuit by 3.6 runs per game (6 to 2.4).

It’s really no mystery that leads to Minnesota’s success against the National League, the teams from the other league can’t hit Twins pitching. On the season, all teams score 4.6 runs per game against manager Ron Gardenhire’s club; however the NL lineups have scored only 2.4 per game, which is noted by them allowing nine runs in last four interleague contests, all victories.

With catcher Joe Mauer’s four base-knocks leading the16-hit parade, the Twins won handily last night and Mauer’s sick .429 batting average will start to make people take notice, even if it’s only the middle of June.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Twins as -183 money line favorites against Pittsburgh and why not, as they fall into one of the best super situations that has occurred all year.

Play On all favorites with money line of -175 to -250, after allowing four runs or less, four straight games, against opponent after a loss by four runs or more.

That is a simple and straight forward system with astonishing results. Over the last five seasons, there have been 51 winners out of 57 situations (89.5 percent). The winning margin has been almost as good as Minnesota’s in interleague action at 2.9 per game.

Let’s not also forget about how Minnesota plays when they receive exceptional pitching, with 7-0 record after allowing four runs or less six straight games. They will start Francisco Liriano (2-7, 5.99 ERA), who is finally showing signs of turning season around, allowing four total runs in last two starts, which is more than he can say for his mound opponent Ian Snell. The Pirates right-hander is 1-7 with 5.25 ERA and hasn’t won since April 18. In fact, Snell and the Bucs are 2-14 in road games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.

No doubt the price is a trifle high on Minnesota; nevertheless, the results suggest another Twins killing.

Betting Baseball with numbers that matter

Over the last couple of decades, intelligent baseball fans have moved away from the rudimentary statistics to more thought-provoking and useful numbers. The ideas of batting average and earned run average telling the whole story just isn’t true anymore and we moved ahead to more sophisticated methods of measuring performance.

From the batting perspective, one commonly seen on television and heard on radio broadcasts is on-base percentage. Some may wonder how an on-base percentage is calculated.

You add together hits, walks and hit by pitch and divide that by at bats, walks, hit by pitch and sacrifice flies.

What we learn from on-base percentage is the hitting value of the player to the team. For example, Ted Williams hold the all-time record for OBP for career at .481. Second is Babe Ruth at .474 and others in the top 10 includes Lou Gehrig, Barry Bonds, Rogers Hornsby and Ty Cobb. In the top 15 all-time are a couple of modern day players, Todd Helton and Albert Pujols.
Why is OBP valuable to sports bettors?

Start with the fact the easiest way to score runs is having men on base. Former Baltimore Orioles manager Earl Weaver said the best offense play in the game was a three-run homer and while you can’t argue with his logic, two players had to get on base for that to occur. Many of the all-time great pitchers gave up 20 or more home runs a year, even into the 30’s, but they limited damage by having them be solo shots.

On-base percentage means players are willing to help the team. These hitters will take walks, adding to hurlers pitch counts, and play the game the right way, by hitting to opposite field if pitcher works the outside corner continually or with two strikes.

A quick review of the top five teams in Major League Baseball for OBP looks like this.

L.A. Dodgers .374
N.Y. Mets .369
Boston .366
Washington .361 (see pitching numbers)
Toronto .359

Three of these teams are in first place in their respective divisions and the Red Sox are right on the heels of the Blue Jays. Though Manny Ramirez is suspended, his work ethic and attention to detail has rubbed off on his Dodgers teammates. The Mets have been more patient at the dish and are 5th in walks. Boston is just being Boston and Toronto manager Cito Gaston has convinced his team to be more aggressive at the plate, yet be selective at what you swing at. After having doubts, maybe Nationals third-sacker Ryan Zimmerman is correct is saying “….we’re better than our record shows”, however allowing six runs per game puts a great deal of pressure on any offense.

Another aspect to think about is what a quality OBP does to opposing teams pitching staff. The pitch count aspect has already been mentioned for starting pitchers, which transcends into more innings for bullpens. This is an area that is a moving target for many teams from year to year, as teams feel compelled to pay everyday ball players more and will let go of effective reliever over cost concerns.

Drilling down, we find only 10 teams have a bullpen ERA of less than 3.80, suggesting batters going to the plate with an idea to execute could see tasty deliveries coming their way.

Reviewing the other end of the spectrum here are the five worst teams in OBP.

Seattle .307
Arizona .307
San Francisco .314
Oakland .314
San Diego .314

Two of the five clubs are in the bottom five for walks (Mariners and Giants). Only San Francisco has a record above .500, but that has been due to superior starting pitching, led by Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and the possible revitalization of Barry Zito. It would be rare to see Seattle, Oakland and San Diego at the top of this list anyways, since they play in parks conducive to pitching. Nevertheless, all these teams lack talented hitters and the ones on the active roster go up to the plate just hacking, making them easy fodder for pitchers that can hit the right spots.

Arizona is the biggest disgrace, since the core players on the team should be approaching best years. The Snakes have to tie their shoes extra tight, because they swing so hard trying to jack everything over the fence. To this point, the D-Backs hitters have shown no adaptability to wanting to improve and strike out or hit lazy pop-ups and fly balls.

Winning against those setting the line is never easy, but utilizing tools like on-base percentage can keep you in the black.

Baseball Betting Theories Changing

It’s not considered politically correct to admit you enjoyed Major League baseball during what has become known as the steroid era. After people lost faith in baseball because of the 1994 strike that caused the deletion of the World Series, baseball needed a change to bring people back to the park. As players started paying attention to nutrition and health supplements, the seamy side also crept in and untold numbers of players started using steroids and other performance enhancements and the ball was flying out of the ball yard as never before.

Baseball assuredly heard the whispers about players “adding 20 pounds of muscle” but choose to ignore with the turnstiles twirling, as fans enjoyed all the home runs being launched across 30 ball parks. ESPN SportsCenter had a massive inventory of highlights for several shows each night and the game’s popularity grew.

Though many of its presumed users have not and likely will never come forward, I always had more of a problem with Brady Anderson hitting 50 home runs and never before or after even reaching 25. Or Luis Gonzalez hitting 57 in 2001, with 31 homers the high water mark previously and going forward for. I’m not accusing either player of doing something they have denied doing, just trying to make sense of their accomplishments, as literally one-hit wonders.
While that space of time is looked upon shamefully because a bunch of oversized non-athletic (in many cases) players were “softball bangers” with limited skills, this helped usher in a new era, taking the game back to its roots with a new modern twist that can help the sports bettor.

Tampa Bay turned over its organization three years ago, finally realizing they had to have different concept to compete with Boston and the Yankees. The Rays started drafting players not only with skills, but exceptional athletes, who could run and play a different style of baseball. I’ve mentioned before in articles about how Peter Gammons believed in spring training of 2008, after watching Tampa Bay, he felt the Rays would be at least a .500 or better last season, since they were in his opinion the most athletic team in baseball.

The Rays easily exceeded Gammon’s beliefs, winning 97 games, after never winning more than 70 in any previous season. The two most obvious aspects of improvement were the young talented everyday players and starting pitchers. Scott Kazmir was already established as the best pitcher in baseball on bad team and James Shields and Matt Garza came into their own. By late August of 2008, every true baseball fan knew the names of B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena.

Despite all the fanfare, one aspect was overlooked after Tampa Bay won first ever division title. The Rays actually scored EIGHT less runs in winning 97 games than they did in winning 66 contests in 2007. So what happened, the starting pitching and bullpen was dramatically improved as Tampa gave up 273 FEWER runs. One overlooked point is what a difference defense made.

Where this comes into play is sites like Hardball Times, who have devised methods to rate players on defense skills, beyond errors. They have metrics like Ultimate Zone Ratings, which measure a player’s ability to save or cost his team runs during the course of a season. There are so many intriguing variables to learn from, that would be two more articles, but for the sake of simple clarity, we’ll stick to the basics.

Tampa Bay developed a model of defensive statistics that was devised to replicate how offensive numbers worked. This led to drafting certain types of players that could reach batted balls at a higher rate then average players. The results of this new way of thinking helped produce last year’s American League champions.

John Dewan, who was an early Bill James follower, started Baseball Info Solutions and created +/- method of interpreting fielding. In Sports Illustrated’s Baseball Preview, he talked about the importance of fielding. “Last year, based on my metrics, the Phillies defense saved about 80 runs as team,” Dewan stated. “The worst team, the Royals, lost about 50 runs.”

If you consider this the norm and think of Texas and San Diego having the widest variance in runs scored from last year with a 264 runs scored differential, this suggests defense is approximately half as important as scoring runs.

If you find this argument hard to swallow, think about a few of the season results to date. Seattle is a surprise leader in the AL West, after losing 101 games last season. The Mariners added Franklin Gutierrez, who was Fielding Bible winner last season and Endy Chavez to patrol expansive Safeco Field outfield. In defensive efficiency ratings, the Mariners have jumped from 24th to eighth.

If your prefer simpler stats, the top three teams in total chances are in order, Toronto, St. Louis and the Dodgers, who are a combined 56-28, +24.4 units at this time. Putouts are a related function to total chances and the four best teams at present are Toronto, Florida, Seattle and the Dodgers, all four division leaders.

The L.A. Angels have been hamstrung with pitching woes, but they have not been helped by miserable defense, which has fallen from 14th to 29th this season.

If you have been wondering why the New York Yankees are floundering, consider the thought of “strength up the middle”. Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano are among the very worst at their infield positions at getting to ground balls, which turn into base hits. Over the course of a season, that is extremely important to wins and losses.

The game of baseball has gone back to having a lineup that has boppers and strong hitters, balanced with players who can throw around the leather. Smart baseball teams are seeing the value of fielding and smart baseball bettors are too.

MLB Betting Previews

For the opening of the Major League baseball season I wrote previews on all 30 teams by division. The amount of space needed to show each division who be very lengthy, thus in the interest of saving space, I'll list each division and you can read them if you so choose by clicking on them.

AL West

AL Central

AL East

NL West

NL Central

NL East

You are of course welcome to comment on any of my predictions.

Cooley's Comtemplations -103 Damnations

One big name leaked into our laps so may we please have the remaining 103?

On Monday afternoon, New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez confessed to using performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) for three seasons during his illustrious baseball career.

This is about as big of news as there has been since steroids, HGH and PEDs entered the diamond of the public eye. Baseball fans across the nation have been waiting for a confession like this, and the renaissance of cleaner games on the sandlot is eagerly anticipated by all.

But rest assured, there are many more dark days to come before the Steroid Era is gone.

This is a period in baseball that will never be forgotten. It will be talked about by our children, our children's children and their children's children. The game will eventually rid itself of this disease with its deep and rich history, and it looks like now could be the beginning of the cleansing process.

But more players must follow the lead Alex Rodriguez provided.

Rodriguez has been a Mariner, a Ranger and a Yankee, but on Monday he was a sacrificial lamb. He tossed aside his pride and said, "I am pretty tired of being stupid and selfish and the truth needed to be told a long time ago, and I'm glad it's coming out today. I was young, I was stupid, I was naive. I am very sorry and deeply regretful."

Rodriguez seemed to be sincerely remorseful for taking illegal PEDs from 2001 to 2003 while playing for Texas. As he gave his testimony to Peter Gammons sitting in a chair with a blue sweater and white collar, he appeared to be relieved, scared, contemplative and emotional all at the same time. He even began to choke-up when speaking about his fans "that will never look at (him) the same."

Perhaps his white collar in the interview had an unknowing symbolic significance. Maybe it proves that even celebrities are normal people, just like the white collar worker who is prone to human error.

Rodriguez coming clean in front of the nation is commendable, but he should have done it sooner. When Jason Giambi and Andy Pettitte admitted their transgressions a new found respect from fans, coaches, players and the media surfaced.

Over time, this will most likely happen with Rodriguez as well. But now while the iron is hot, the other 103 players should raise their hands and also confess to what they did.

In 2003, Major League Baseball gave an unannounced drug test to a group of active players to see if mandatory, random testings were needed in the sport. After results were gathered and it was determined baseball had a steroid problem, MLB was going to destroy the 104 positive samples, but the federal government issued a subpoena and the list was taken by investigators.

This testing was a secret screening where the results were supposed to be kept confidential and no punishments for positive results were to be handed out. The players' samples were even locked away in one location while the list was stored in another.

One can't help but image what sort of encasement the list and samples were kept in and what kind of credentials a person needed to access them? Did the key holder have to go through a series of fingerprint and retina scans to get to the list?

It kind of sounds like Area 51 with the extra terrestrials and the government hiding everything.

The same place one might find the remaining 103 culprits who cheated the game, the fans and their teams.

Why is it fair for one player to be thrown to the wolves but not the others? Why was it that only Rodriguez's name was divulged from this confidential investigation? Is it so terrible to ask for others to come forward?

Honesty has always been and will always be the best policy.

Houston Astros shortstop Miguel Tejada appear in court on Wednesday for lying to Congressional investigators when he told them he had not taken PEDs during his baseball career.

It looks as if Tejada is one of the lingering 103. Perhaps baseball fans will be able to cross a second name off the infamous list.

Beyond the shadows where the cowardly will remain silent is a tiny golf clap of applause for what Alex Rodriguez accomplished on Monday. The praise can be heard over the continuous song of sarcastic pity played by the critics who hold the world's smallest violin.

"Regardless of what we want to mask and say and justify there is absolutely no excuse for what I did," stated Rodriguez. "If I was a fan, I would be very pissed off."

We are very pissed off. But we are also human and have the ability to forgive, but that begins with more players admitting guilt.

Rodriguez got the monkey off his back, now we need to get the elephant out of the room.


Scott Cooley is Freelance Writer who shares his wisdom here.