The New Orleans Saints are one of two unbeaten teams remaining in the National Football League and are 6-0. They have built a two game lead in the NFC South without playing a single division contest. That will change on Monday Night at the Superdome when they welcome second place Atlanta.The Saints and Falcons have long played a competitive and entertaining head-to-head series. Each division in football has their rivalries. Most are regional in nature and in the South; nothing is bigger for professional football fans than this matchup. The stakes are higher than ever with both teams legitimate playoff contenders and possibly more.
In the early years, Atlanta was the dominate player and still leads the all-time series 45-35, however in the last few seasons, New Orleans has had the better of it winning five of six with four covers.
The term “Big Easy” would be an accurate description of how Drew Brees and company have piled up the yards and points. The Saints offense has totaled a league-high 427.3 yards per game, averaging 39.7 points per game. The scary part is they have done it every way imaginable. New Orleans has passed for over 350 yards against Detroit and the New York Giants and run the ball down the throats of Buffalo for 222 yards. Last week, after being severely gashed by Miami in trailing 24-3 on the road, all they did was outscore the Dolphins 43-10 the last 31 minutes of the game. The Saints have covered all their games this season and are 6-0 ATS after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored.
This is a big game for Atlanta who is 4-2, with matching spread record. Quarterback Matt Ryan has done a good job in his second season, with the Falcons averaging 24 points per game against teams that have allowed 21.3 PPG. Atlanta has stuck with the running game at 28 carries per game, however is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry. Astute football followers could see this coming since running backs like Michael Turner who carry the ball over 350 times in a season, typically see a fall in yards per carry by more than a half a yard the next year. Last season 4.5 YPC for Turner, thus far 3.4.
Atlanta’s defense is very dependent on the pass rush, since they pass a soft Cover 2 to protect their mediocre cornerbacks. The Falcons are 27th against the pass (250.7), which is bad fit for New Orleans offense and its multiple weapons. They were abused by Dallas for 37 points and 414 total yards and are 25-8 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
The wagering public loves teams that score points and make this team the only football game on television, it’s not hard to figure what way the public will bet, especially at home. Sportsbook.com opened New Orleans as 8.5-point favorites and by Sunday morning, the money had been pouring in raising them to 12.
The Falcons will be looking to snap a four-game SU and ATS losing streak in divisional road games and this will be their fourth road contest in last five encounters. The unbeaten Saints are comfortable at home where they’ve won eight of their last nine games ATS. In the last nine meetings between these two clubs in New Orleans, six have gone UNDER the total. The total of 56 is worth following depending on point of view, since the Saints are 11-3 OVER after scoring 30 points or more last game and Atlanta is 12-4 OVER as an underdog of 10.5 to 14 points.
The Falcons cover if Turner or other Atlanta running backs find some explosiveness, sorely lacking thus far. Miami showed for a half how you beat New Orleans, by being physical on the offensive and defensive lines. Controlling the line on offense keeps the Saints offense on the sidelines. Atlanta’s defense has to take away something, stop the New Orleans running game to at least force them to play one way. Gap discipline is vital and tackling effective is crucial. In the passing game, Brees has liked to go to Jeremy Shockey early, negate his catches. Matt Ryan has to look off Darren Sharper effectively, as he is smart and has great instincts in getting to the ball, work him underneath with Tony Gonzalez to keep him occupied.
The Saints cover if they play their game and don’t become too anxious before a big TV audience and facing a NFC South rival. Coach Sean Payton has been aggressive as play-caller and cut down on the razzle-dazzle. Brees is playing smart football and letting the game come to him, not forcing the action. He will however attack the Atlanta secondary on all three levels. The Saints are 11th in total defense and could stop Birds running game. Ryan is an accurate thrower, but not when forced to throw on every down. The Saints know their good and play hard for 60 minutes, something seldom seen in these parts. Monday night home favorites of nine or more on are 15-5 ATS run.
Monday Night System – Play On a home team facing an opponent that allowed 35 or more points in last contest. (18-4 ATS)
Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.
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