Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror in the NFL

If you played Jacksonville or Kansas City this past Sunday, your nerve-endings were tingling, only to be slapped upside the head late in the game. The Jaguars came into their game against Miami well-positioned at 7-5 to take an AFC playoff berth despite being outscored on the season. Midway thru the second quarter it was apparent, the Dolphins had everything Jacksonville did not. A better running game, solid quarterback play, a stronger defense and more crowd support despite being on the road.

The one thing Miami didn’t have after building 14-0 lead, was ability to put the Jaguars away. Jacksonville, despite being thoroughly outplayed (Fins 22-10 edge in first downs and 137 more yards of offense), were in position to cover the 2 or 2.5-points after a first down on their own 49-yard line with under three minutes to play. The Jaguars had no success running the ball all day (3.8 yards per carry), especially up the middle. On a fourth down and three, to keep the drive alive on the Miami 44, the Jacksonville offensive coordinator calls a David Garrard quarterback draw. Those that had the Dolphins with the points had to be laughing hysterically about one of the most foolish offensive calls all season given the circumstances. Did we at 3Daily Winners miss something in not rolling out Garrard to the right, with a three passing options at 5, 10, and 15 yards? No, let’s run the quarterback draw for a four yard loss.

Thanks to Matt Cassel’s four interceptions (not all his fault) Kansas City could not overcome a bumbling Buffalo team that led 16-10, despite Ryan Fitzpatrick’s gargantuan 86 yards of passing. The Chiefs had one final outstanding opportunity to win the game outright as underdogs in the latter stages of fourth quarter and it underscored the value of talent. On third and ten at the Bills 21, Cassel threw a perfect pass to Chris Chambers at the five yard line, right in his belly, with nobody within three yards of him and he dropped it.

While there is no way to know if Kansas City would have scored a touchdown from there, it brought up another point. San Diego released Chambers earlier this season, as they felt he was no longer able to play for a team that still entertained a deep playoff run. The Chiefs picked Chambers up and he immediately became a big part of the coach Todd Haley’s pass offense.

While Chambers has proved he still has NFL ability, he no longer is coveted by championship-type teams. He’s an adequate fill-in for a team lacking in receivers. Though the top receivers in the game fail now and again, Chambers drop likely was the game and illustrated why the Chefs (intentional) are 3-10 and 5-8 ATS.

This whole Dallas dumping in December is a fact, no matter what coaches, players and a certain owner believes. Since 1996, they are 18-33 SU and they have lost 10 of last 15 in the final month of the year. After all these years, it’s not just bad luck or misfortune; it’s a pattern of behavior.

Do you want to know the problem with the Cowboys, they are front-runners. Much like a horse that races out to early lead, Dallas does the same thing year after year and sports bettors turn into lemmings following “America’s Team”. As opposed to a horse that just tires out, Dallas lacks the mental and intestinal fortitude to tough things out. The last two weeks were examples of the Cowboys not losing to better teams, rather to squads better prepared and with greater desire.

How do measure desire, this way. With San Diego leading 13-10 and 9:13 to go in the game, the Chargers had rushed for 41 net yards to that point. From that point forward, the Bolts ran off over seven minutes off the clock and added 32 rushing yards to their total. The San Diego offensive line, LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles wanted the game just a little more than the Cowboys did at that critical juncture and they took it. It’s not a coincidence the Chargers have won 16 consecutive games in December. Dallas doesn’t have the players that can raise their level of play at crunch time, period, making sportsbooks loads of cash with the public backing the ‘Boys.

Betting points – The Bengals streak of games with the underdog covering (12-0 ATS) this season, ended with curious non-effort in Minnesota. You have to wonder if something is wrong with Carson Palmer, as he threw just 25 times for 94 yards, despite his team trailing by 16 or more points most of the second half. Very much a play against team with four consecutive spread losses.

A quick way to rebuild a wagering account is follow the Oakland Raiders off a victory. With the Washington 34-13 wipeout, since their 2002 Super Bowl season, Da Raiders are 6-20 and 9-17 ATS after posting a W, including 0-4 SU and ATS in 2009.

There is still time to fix it, but New Orleans is losing focus late in the year on a balanced offense. All season coach Sean Payton has mixed the run and pass to near perfection, yet in the last two weeks, both spread defeats, the Saints have thrown 90 times compared to 50 runs. Coach Payton needs to lean more on the running game or a surprise early postseason ouster could be in New Orleans future even if they manage 16-0 regular season.

The AFC has clinched at least a tie in not losing to the NFC in inter-conference play for the 14th straight year. The AFC leads 32-23 and needs just one win in last nine games to take season record to 11-0-3 since 1996. For NFL bettors, it has made little difference with the record 27-27-1 ATS this year.

The Chargers will look to bolt to lead on Monday Night

The Chargers waited until Week 13 last season to get their act together and snagged the division title on the final Sunday of the season. This year’s push for the AFC West crown needs to begin on Monday night when they host upstart Denver, which comes off its fifth win out of the gate.

San Diego (2-2, 1-3 ATS) hasn’t enjoyed a fast start since 2006 when it won four of its first five and finished 13-3. It lost three of four to start the following season and was 2-3 at this same time a year ago. At .500 and coming off a bye as well as a 38-28 loss in Pittsburgh in Week 4, head coach Norv Turner can’t put his finger on one thing that’s ailing his talented club that is 6-15-3 ATS as home favorite of 3.5 or fewer points.

Fatigue won’t be to blame if San Diego drops this critical Monday night contest against the Broncos. The Chargers will have had 15 days to prepare its No. 26th ranked defense. They have really missed NT Jamal Williams, surrendering 151 yards on the ground (27th). Coach Turner’s team is in must-win mode, and fortunately, has done just that versus Denver of late, going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in last six meetings. They’ve also done well at home under Turner, going 14-6 ATS, including 4-2 ATS vs. divisional foes.

The Broncos are 5-0 SU and ATS after beating New England and head into their bye week next Sunday. Denver had a myriad of defensive issues a year ago, but not anymore. Its resurgence has been led by a unit that was nothing short of a sieve in 2008, yielding 28 points per game, including 90 in two meetings with the Chargers. Through the first five weeks, new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has directed a group that allowed 43 points (1st in the NFL) and no more than 17 in any game. Even against the Patriots and Tom Brady, the Broncos didn’t come apart and pitched a shutout in the second half and are second in total defense.

The Broncos are only 2-7 ATS in their last nine pre-bye week games on the road vs division squads. Denver won its only game vs. an AFC West foe so far, snapping a skid of 3-15 ATS vs. division rivals.

Denver opened as four-point road underdogs and once the public took a closer look, they moved them to three-point dogs. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS versus AFC opponents with rest. DiamondSportsbook.com has the total at 43.5 and Denver is 16-5 OVER in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. San Diego is 10-2 ATS in home games after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous outing and is 20-6 UNDER as a home favorite of three points or less.

Denver covers if they establish the run against San Diego. With no Williams in the middle, Pro Bowl center Casey Wiegmann should get a great push, opening lanes for rookie Knowshon Moreno to earn tough yards inside and burst either way with an opening. The Broncos have started slow each of the last two games, trailing by 10 points early. Though coach Josh McDaniels and his staff have made outstanding adjustments at halftime, with Denver an otherworldly 59-7 in the second half, that might not work as well on the road. A confident team with a quick start could add discomfort to a division club not playing at their level with a first quarter burst. Phillip Rivers is arguably the best deep passer in the NFL, the safeties have to maintain their integrity and limit big gains.

San Diego covers if they play with the needed urgency in a division game with plenty of rest. The Chargers were pancaked at Pittsburgh, before making late rally. Falling behind to Denver plays into their hands as their defense is even tougher with a lead. San Diego has to improve dramatically on first down on offense and defense. They rank 25th is first down efficiency offensively and opponents convert 49 percent of third downs, mostly because of earlier down failures. The Chargers have generated the fewest amount of third and longs in the league. Try and make QB Kyle Orton a difference-maker, not a game manager like he has been for the most part. Take the early lead, play solid run defense and have Orton play from behind for significant periods of time.

Monday Night System – Play Against any MNF home team off a bye hosting a division rival. (10-2 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Matching Quarterbacks to ATS numbers

While scanning the internet, I came across someone talking about how they didn’t necessarily agree with an article that former NFL quarterback and current ESPN football analyst Trent Dilfer wrote about NFL quarterbacks. After doing a quick search on Google, found the article where the Dilfer broke down each NFL starting signal caller and placed them into specific categories.

If you’ve heard Dilfer on ESPN, he comes across pretty well, speaks knowledgably about most topics, however he’s not above throwing a bizarre zinger that makes absolutely no sense, which brings his credibility into question.

Articles like the one Dilfer wrote are good fodder for discussion since they are mildly controversial, yet offer interesting opinions. Taking what the former Super Bowl champion quarterback had to say and matchup it up against the realities of betting on sports, let’s see where the two worlds intersect.

Not surprisingly, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are rated as the best in nearly all facets of the game. One of the keys for both is unquestioned preparation and ability to analyze defenses and make adjustments in a split second. For the sports bettor, Brady is the preferred choice. The former Michigan man is 53-39-3 ATS as favorite. Though he and his team have gotten off to slow start, and few doubt New England won’t improve along with their quarterback. Off the loss to the Jets, Brady and the Pats are 18-7 ATS after a straight up defeat. The older Manning has never kept that same company and has unusual record. Possibly because the Indianapolis has been so dominant in winning AFC South over the years, they are overvalued by oddsmakers or these teams are just more familiar with the Colts, they can stymie them. Whatever the reasoning, Manning is 30-44-2 ATS in division games. Get him out of the division and he’s 66-48-3 ATS.

His next group down has Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Though only two games into 2009 campaign, Brees, despite not having typical NFL quarterback stature and size requirements, is head and shoulders above the competition. The New Orleans offense looks like the Patriots of the couple of years ago and the St. Louis Rams “greatest show on turf” from the Kurt Warner years. Brees has led his team to two 40+ point totals with incredible ball distribution. Though Brees is 26-27-1 ATS in home games, he’s 35-18-4 ATS on the road, including fabulous 12-2 against the spread mark as road favorite after Sunday’s wipeout in Philadelphia.

Philip Rivers has gotten better each year as quarterback and San Diego is now his team. Though he’s a bit too much of a chatterbox, as Dilfer points out, Rivers makes the hardest throws among starting quarterbacks, since Norv Turner’s offense is more vertical, meaning throwing the ball 15-25 yards down the field and he does so with uncanny accuracy. The Chargers have offensive line and defensive issues at the moment, but Rivers and Bolts are still 18-10 ATS at home and 18-8-1 ATS when matched against a team off a loss.

Dilfer’s next batch could be rated higher by others and not many would argue. Remember when Eli Manning was too casual about playing quarterback and didn’t work as hard as his older brother? At the time, all of us weren’t aware NOBODY worked as hard as Peyton. Eli has gone on to earn his own Super Bowl ring and is adroitly moving his game up several notches working with new receivers and having success. Eli’s calm demeanor helps New York be in the right running plays and at two-minute drill time. The younger Manning and the Giants are methodical on the road with 27-12-1 ATS record.

Remember how unorthodox Brett Favre was for years, his replacement is Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has two gaudy Super Bowl rings and will likely never receive the true credit he deserves until a few years from now. He’s the best improviser at his position, and keeps plays alive most quarterbacks would just throw the ball away on. He a money-maker on a team that isn’t given the underdog role too often and he’s 14-6 ATS when catching points. Here’s two numbers to remember about Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh is 22-12 ATS with revenge and 20-9 ATS in the AFC North.

Dilfer also likes the productivity of Donovan McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck as veterans. Both have become more injury-prone in advancing years. McNabb when healthy is 45-26 ATS away from home and Hasselbeck is 28-17-2 ATS playing in coffee-town.

In his article, Dilfer calls the next group “knocking on the door”. This is primarily young quarterbacks with promise, who have to take the next step and take their teams to playoffs and start winning those games. Joe Flacco did just that, but was more a game manager than facilitator. In 2009, Flacco shows signs of progress. Matt Ryan is similar to Flacco and has the look of being able to prevent Atlanta from going backwards and making his club a Play On team. Aaron Rodgers is only 7-11 and 9-9 ATS at Green Bay, but he needs pass protection and a defense that stop somebody to take next growth step.

Tony Romo is drifting towards enigma stage. Talent-wise he’s probably Top 5, but his decision-making is horrendous in the biggest games, not unlike how he performed in Giants game this past Sunday. Yes, the Cowboys are always going to be overvalued, but to be 21-21 ATS with the amount of talent surrounding him, not acceptable.

Jay Cutler could be another breakout quarterback, if he shows maturity on and off the field. His spread numbers make most bettors pale (4-17-1 ATS as a favorite comes to mind), yet his ability is unquestioned outside a select few in Denver and if he grows with an unproven group of receivers in Chicago, it might be what he needs in the growth process.

Most of the other quarterbacks are what they are (Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner and Chad Pennington) and aren’t likely to become better without protection and talent around them. Many others like Trent Edwards, David Garrard and Shaun Hill need a solid running game to be most effective.

This is a worthwhile read especially in a league so dependent on one player in a team game. Sports bettors are wise to consider the quarterback matchup each and every game as a possible difference-maker for spread wins and losses.