Sometimes your the windshield, sometimes your the bug

Last night I went 1-2, but had my chances. I bet against Stephen Strasburg and Washington, as Florida had him on the ropes the first three innings, leaving six men on base. To his credit, Strasburg got the Marlins out, but the Fish certainly had their chances.

I took another underdog with the streaking White Sox, who finally saw the air come out of the balloon, but in a unusual way. The Pale Hose committed four errors which was the difference in their 7-4 loss. San Diego won comfortably to complete the day.

If I were presented with the same exact circumstances again today for betting baseball, I would make the same three wagers. It just didn't work out.

Baseball Betting Choice – The Rook or the Vet

Stephen Strasburg’s rookie debut has caused quite a stir in baseball, showcasing his incredible ability. Tim Hudson (7-3, 2.54 ERA) is 13 years older than his mound opponent on Monday night and could put his right arm around the youngster and share his wisdom, having already traveled down this road. Instead, he will try and out-duel the younger phenom.

Strasburg’s (2-1, 1.78) highly anticipated professional campaign has been marked by a number of first’s, the last being his first loss in the Major Leagues, a 1-0 defeat to Kansas City. Though he permitted a season-high nine base hits in his six innings of work, he did strike out nine Royals batters, walking none for the third time in four starts. He also broke a record that has stood since 1955, fanning 41 hitters in his first four initial starts.

“I know there’s going to be times when it’s going to be like this in the future,” Strasburg said. “And there’s going to be times when I’m not pitching well, and they’ll just go out there and score a ton of runs and save me. It’s baseball.”

Lost in all the excitement of Strasburg becoming a member of Washington (33-43), is their recent futility. The Nationals are 3-13 since the right-hander arrived in D.C. and they swept Pittsburgh June 8-10. The most recent three losses were a real embarrassment even for the Nats, as they lost all three games to regional rival Baltimore. That was just the Orioles second sweep of the season and their first ever over Washington since they arrived in the area in 2005.
Hudson is all the way back for last year’s surgery pitching for Atlanta (44-32), which has the best home record in the big leagues at 26-8. Hudson has sparkled at Turner Field with 4-1 record and 1.87 ERA, allowing only 23 hits in 33 1/3 innings. The right-hander has enjoyed any matchup with Washington, sporting an 8-1 record and minuscule 1.62 ERA. In his career, Hudson is 58-22 in home games in the first half of the season. (Team's Record)

Oddsmakers have the Braves as -115 money line favorites, with total Ov.6.5. Atlanta enters this series opener 14-3 at home with a money line of -100 to -150 and is 9-2 vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start.

Washington will try and avoid the usual doldrums that affect them, as they are 30-62 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 since 2008 and 23-10 UNDER in the same role since last season.

This NL East matchup is on ESPN2 at 7:10 Eastern and surprisingly these teams have split the last 18 contests in Atlanta.

Monday is light on quantity but not quality

Make it another 2-1 day for us, taking record to 83-43. With so few MLB contests, the pickings are slim, but decided to go ahead anyways. The Top Trend is in the state where the U.S. government is reportedly about to sue. Mark tries to deliver another free winner and our Best System is solid and improving of late. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday – So much for Dustin Johnson looking cool and collected, WOW! I thought Johnny Miller said it best about Tiger Woods “He plays like all the rest of the guys.”

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Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 like Washington, with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season, playing on Monday. Dating back to 1997, this system is 70-22 and even better the past five seasons at 26-5.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Yankees are 19-3 after shutting out their opponent over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Mark picked up three more winners on Sunday taking him to 10-2 and is on Oakland this evening.

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Gentlemen, start your engines

Another perfect day takes us to 62-26, 70.4 percent! It’s not as good as some handicappers that consistently hit 80 percent (wink-wink), but not too shabby. We’ll see if our luck can continue with the LCC having another Free play in the NL. The Top Trend is about a pitcher who is almost unbeatable at home and the Best System is far down the Left Coast and is 46-10. Good Luck

What I’ll thought today – With Kendry Morales having one of the most freak accidents you can have on the diamond, the Halos could well be in the heap of trouble. Without him they only have two players (Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu) hitting over .260.

Remember when you couldn't watch the Indy 500 live and had to listen to it on the radio and it was cool?

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Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like the Nationals with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350. Dating back 13 years, this MLB system is 46-10, 82.1 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) James Shields and Tampa Bay are 17-2 as a home favorite of -150 to -175.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The LCC consensus plays have been awesome and they are 7-0 on Cincy today with a mixture of ML or RL action. For our purposes, it’s just the Reds.

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No Monday plays but great info

No great systems, trends or otherwise today, so we’ll let today go.

What I found today – Will this be the year the National League finally ends the American League’s six year reign of terror? Though just 42 of the 252 official interleague games have been played in 2010, the numbers are evenly divided at 21-21.

Some of the usual suspects performed up to their high standards (see article below), as Boston and Minnesota both won series over the National League. However, even traditionally dreadful clubs like San Diego and the Los Angeles Dodgers came thru and won two of three.

Get out the cell phone to take a picture of this.

Tampa Bay is the first team to get 20 games over .500 and they are the best bet in baseball at +13.3 units, think about that being possible after the 2007 season.

Next is two very unlikely candidates, San Diego (+10.1) and Washington (+10.1).

The Padres are still in first place in the NL West despite a batting order that does not raise the blood pressure of opposing pitchers, but they have pitching staff that leads the National League in ERA at 2.98. While some will say this is a by-product of playing at cavernous Petco Park, San Diego is 14-9 on the road and their ERA is third in the big leagues at 3.8.

Washington being over .500 at 23-22 at this stage of the season is remarkable for them. The reason the Nationals have been successful to this point is improved defense and pitching. Instead of ranking in the lower 25 percent of virtually every category, they are now average, which has them as more competitive club.

At the beginning of the year Seattle was considered a serious threat to knock the L.A. Angels off the throne as AL West champs. The question was why?

Last year Seattle was 85-77 after a hideous 61-101 2008 campaign. Because they lacked offensive firepower, the Mariners front office built the team around pitching and defensive in particular. The move paid off with surprising season.

In the offseason, Seattle added Chone Figgins trying to get another player on base for the middle of the lineup and thought Milton Bradley would find the Puget Sound a more calming area than Chicago. Seattle was 28th last season in runs scored and without changing the main part of the heart of the order, the M’s remain 28th in scoring at 3.5 runs per game, lacking any offensive punch.

With every team placing a greater emphasis on defense, the Mariners edge is negated and Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee can’t pitch shutouts on every start, which helps explain why Seattle is 16-28, -13.9 units.

Sharp sports bettors knew this before the season started. The 2009 Mariners were the 13th team since 1900 to post a winning record after losing 100 or more games. The very next year these teams have a .487 win percentage or roughly 79 wins. (From Bill James 2010 Gold Mine)

What does the home court mean in the NBA Playoffs?

Favored teams thus far in the postseason are 36-13, 31-17-1 ATS when playing in their own building.

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Baseball bettors more profitable with right knowledge

Sports talk radio and sports forums are loaded with people that have opinions on all kinds of topics. Some are informed, many are not. Throwing out the often tired “_______ sucks” does not qualify as riveting or informed perspective on a particular team or player. If the teams or players are playing good or bad, for the sports bettor, it pays to know and understand why.

“It’s not working”

The Baltimore Orioles (-10.6 betting units) started the year 2-16, getting a head start on their usual second half collapse. Playing in a division with the Yankees, Boston and Tampa Bay does not make the job any easier and they’ve only faced confounding Toronto in the first three games of the season before anyone realized they would be this good to this point.

The Orioles are only scoring 3.3 runs per game and though they are 7-8 since horrific beginning, they are not doing anything at the top of the batting order. Baltimore manager Dave Trembley keeps trying to find one hot bat for the No. 1 slot of the batting order, but thus far, nothing has worked with Cesar Izturis (.218 at press time) Julio Lugo (.224) and Adam Jones (.230) all having a turn without producing to help Ty Wigginton or Matt Wieters drive in runners.

The Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros (-8) have the same basic problem as they have muddled along in 2010. The Cubs (-12.6) placed Ryan Theriot at the front of the lineup and he gets on base regularly with .329 batting average. Marlon Byrd and Geovany Soto are both hitting over .325 but the middle of the lineup is a black hole on the north side of Chicago. It’s not a good sign when one of your starting pitchers (Ryan Dempster) has a higher batting average (.230) than those in the heart of the order. Derrick Lee (.220, 28 K’s) Aramis Ramirez (.159, 31 K’s) and Xavier Nady (.186, 10 K’s in 43 AB’s) are swinging and missing, giving new meaning to the “Windy City” and the Cubs not scoring enough runs to win.

Houston’s Michael Bourn is batting lead-off, hitting .289 with on-base percentage of .366 and is nearly automatic to reach second base after a single with 11 stolen bases. Unfortunately he might have to start stealing third and home with Lance Berkman hitting .197 and Carlos Lee at .200. This less than dynamic duo has 18 combined runs batted in, which 33 National League players have surpassed individually.

There is a very good reason why White Sox slugger Paul Konerko leads the Major Leagues with 13 home runs, yet has only 27 rbi’s, nobody ahead of him in the batting order is ever on base. Leadoff man Juan Pierre has stolen 15 bags, but he can’t steal first and .244 BA leaves Chicago missing opportunities. The same is true of Gordon Beckham in the No. 2 slot of late, batting a shocking .188 and leading the Pale Hose in strikeouts with 28. Its little wonder the White Sox (-7.4) are hanging out with Cleveland and Kansas City in the lower regions of the AL Central instead of hunting down Minnesota

So that’s how you do it

It’s either seldom or never heard, “The Washington Nationals are my favorite bet”. The Nats are in second place at 18-15 behind two-time National League champion Philadelphia and are the tops in baseball betting at +11.4 units. How could this possibly be the world wonders?

Eventually, Washington will slide below .500 if they keep being outscored by a half a run a contest. Nonetheless, at least for now, four elements have changed. The first bit of credit goes to skipper Jim Riggleman, who’s altered the tone in the locker room. For years, Nationals players didn’t seem to care if they won or lost, but now those in the clubhouse daily see joy when they win and remorse when they suffer a defeat.

Next, Washington is in the middle of almost all NL offensive stats, which gives them a chance and their defense which has been one of the worst since moving to D.C., is at least average and they are getting to more balls that lead to outs. Lastly, the Nats are not blowing as many games late with Tyler Clippard and closer Matt Capps both having ERA’s under 2.00.

The San Diego Padres (+9.4) are atop the NL West, thanks to a nasty pitching staff and just enough offense. Pads pitchers have hung seven zeroes on opposing teams and held seven others to one or two runs, which doesn’t necessitate having the pressure of scoring a lot of runs to stay in the game.

San Diego pitchers are second in the NL is ERA (2.71) and BAA (.224). Padres’ hurlers are in the top six in strikeouts and top five in fewest walks allowed, which stops scoring threats from exploding. Everything is so cheery around Petco Park, even talk of trading Adrian Gonzalez has stopped.

Toronto’s unlikely quick start this campaign has been fueled by starting pitching (2nd in the AL in quality starts) and hitting the long ball. The Blue Jays (+7.3) hitters lead baseball with 51 home runs, which has meant no prolonged scoring droughts.

As good as Toronto has been, Tampa Bay (+7.2) has been that much better in the standings. In spite of a great deal of youth among its starting staff, the Rays top five starting pitchers have an ERA all under 3.20. They have 23 quality starts, the finest in the AL and the entire staff has the best ERA (2.80) and skimpiest BAA permitted at .223.

Tampa’s team batting average is pedestrian at .254; however they are third in baseball in runs scored and clutch when it counts, second in the AL in runs scored when there are two outs. This is still the most athletic team in the game and if first sacker Carlos Pena would stop trying to pull everything and hit balls to left-center like he used, the offense would only improve.

The final team to bet on is the Yankees, which is usually a bad choice considering what the losses cost. Presently, New York is hitting and pitching so well you have to think about them every day, especially on the run line.

The Yankees margin of victory is 2.2 RPG and they are 21-7 in games decided by two or more runs. Betting them on the run line is a safe wager at -150 or more on the money line, because they are so dominant and it keeps the losses to a minimum.

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Monday's Wave

Another quality day of 2-1 takes us 35-16, 68.6 percent in past 51 picks. Sal has a NL East play for Free today. A Cincy pitcher isn’t at his best into today’s trend situation and we have a 80 percent totals system ready to fire. Good Luck

What I thought today- (11:07 am PDT) Orlando and the L.A. Lakers go for the sweep today of their respective opponents, with NBA bettors liking the Magic’s chances the most. Orlando opened as -5.5 point road favorites, but the majority of books have moved them up to -6.5.

The interest in the Lakers and Utah is more along the lines of scoring, which has escalated each contest and produced three Over’s. The opening number of 205.5 was not good enough for totals players, who have bet it up to 207.

In baseball, numbers moving up and down on favorites.

The Washington Nationals might be tied in the standing with the New York Mets at 17-14, but MLB bettors are not sold at least tonight on the Nats. New York opened as -140 home favorites and has gone up at least 15 cents at most wagering outlets. With the Mets John Maine sporting 2.30 ERA in last three starts and 10-0 record at home vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season over the last three seasons (Mets Record), this could be a factor.

Boston is receiving the same treatment, getting ready to face division rival Toronto. This line movement is bit more perplexing as the Red Sox have gone from -171 to at least -185 and higher at sportsbooks. The Blue Jays are 12-4 on the road this season and have won nine of last 11. Boston does own 3-0 record over Toronto in 2010 and is 16-3 after seven or more consecutive Fenway Park contests however.

The Chicago Cubs just finished 1-5 road trip and subtract their lone victory and this dead ball club scored 10 total runs in the other five contests. The Cubs have gone from -165 favorites at Wrigley Field to -151 or less. Possibly 6-13 record against losing teams doesn’t instill much confidence.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play Under when the total is 7 to 8.5 and a team like Tampa Bay is batting a frigid .225 or worse over their last 10 games, against opponent with a ice cold starting pitcher with ERA over 7.00 in his last three starts. This system is 40-10, including 4-0 this season.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Reds Bronson Arroyo is is 4-17 on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 in his pitching career. (Team’s record)

Free Baseball Pick -3) Sal is 10-3 in MLB since Thursday and has the Mets, though he bought it much lower price.

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Tuesday's Top material

Took what we hope is only a brief hit with 1-2 mark, but still on 14-5 run. Steve keeps handing out greater winners and has dog in MLB action for Free. The Top Trend is on the hardwood and the best System is 81-19 the last 13 years. Good Luck

What I saw today- This Dude is nuts!



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Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like Oakland who are batting .260 or less, against an AL starting pitcher who has ERA of 4.20 or less, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less home runs a start. This system punches a winning ticket 81 percent of the time at 81-19.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Dallas Mavericks are 10-29 as home favorites this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve of the LCC continues to roll and has Washington as underdog play.

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The Sunday Card

Slipped up a bit with 1-2 day as Atlanta decided to attend, not play in Milwaukee. Still 10-3 and Steve goes after his fourth straight Free winner. The Top Trend is reverse perfect in the Bay Area for baseball and the Best System is inspiring 89.1 percent. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- What a crazy day of wagering! Had Nationals as +161 dogs and they tied L.A. 3-3 in the seventh and had runners on base in innings 8-12, including on third base twice and never scored.

Had Seattle, who came back with two runs in the ninth to take 4-2 lead in the Windy City, only to give up three in the bottom of the ninth to lose.

Further west on Madison Street, the Blackhawks were all but done, down 4-3, having a player go into penalty box with 63 seconds left in the game and somehow scored a goal to tie with 13 seconds and won in overtime, giving me -260 winner somehow.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites with a money line of -200 or more like Tampa Bay with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs last outing. Awesome system comes in at 89.1 percent, 49-6 the last 13 years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Cleveland’s Justin Masterson is 0-10 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last two seasons. (Tribe’s Record)

Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve of the Left Coast Connection says the Cardinals are the play today.

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Dressed for Sunday Success

Closed the day 1-1 officially, though the Best System was a winner. Moving forward, the Dodgers are in 32-7 system, is it good or bad for L.A.? Why break up a good thing, have used the Yankees as Top Trend the last two days, why ruin it when the numbers show 88.4 percent. Kendall has a reappearance and has MLB play that has gone from dog to favorite. Good Luck

What I thought today- There is no comparison to the first round of the NHL vs. the NBA; basketball isn’t even close by comparison. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t get better, but for entertainment, the guys in the sweaters are much better to watch, IF you understand hockey.

Have you ever sensed anyone being happy about a particular topic when they say “It is what it is”?

Tim Lincecum is just sick. In case you haven’t heard and I think I heard this right, 21 K’s and two walks this season in 20 innings and only one leadoff batter has gotten base against him. Oh yea, he had three hits yesterday.

Not going to give out 4-1 on underdogs in MLB every day, but today’s math pups are Tampa Bay, Seattle, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Giants. The Nats would have been but they got flipped.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play On home teams like the Dodgers with a team batting average of .280 or better on the season (NL), after a loss by four runs or more. Since 2006, this system is 32-7, 82.1 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Why switch after two winners, the Yankees are 23-3 in home games when playing on Sunday over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Kendall is 8-1 the last two days and got the Washington Nats when they were still an underdog to sweep Milwaukee.

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Short Work Week Starts Today

Another 1-1 day, as Kansas City showed rare gumption in winning on Labor Day. Today we have four plays, two coming from the Left Coast Connection as Free plays. The Top Trend has a rock solid appearance and the Best System is SWEEEET at 58-4. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday- High entertainment value in Miami and Florida State last night, with two offenses that appear they could be potent most of the season. Along those same lines, both defenses lacked ability to cover receivers, develop consistent pressure on the opposing quarterback and too many run lanes were available in defensive lines which were masked with swift linebackers making tackles. I believe we’ll need to see both teams play a couple more games before a true read can be taken. On the glass is half full side, both looked much improved over last season at the same time.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like San Diego with a money line of +175 to +250, who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a broiling starting pitcher who has WHIP 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This system is similar to one we had the other day and is every bit as potent at 58-4, 93.5 percent, including perfect 10-0 in 2009.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Washington Nationals are 5-29 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The LCC will have two unanimous MLB plays today, Texas in Game 1 from yesterday and Detroit.

Paul Buck finished the weekend in college football with 6-3 record and 3Daily Winners was 3-1 since Saturday. Review our Guaranteed Pick packages and start winning.

StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet

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Slump-busters needed for Philadelphia and Atlanta

An old baseball mythical term which has been around for years finds a couple of National League teams in need of its magic. The Philadelphia Phillies were just swept at Houston and Atlanta has lost five in a row. As opposed to other teams with losing streaks at present, both these teams are changing opponents, which might be enough to end this dismal spell. However, in other instances, “slump-busters” might include changing batting order, burning bats, wearing hats differently in the dugout or a few other more crude elements that can’t be mentioned here.

Philadelphia at Washington

The Phillies (77-58, +3.3 units) suffered a lost holiday weekend in Houston in being swept by the Astros in four game series for the first time in a decade. Philadelphia bats have taken a leave of absence, as Philly as scored almost 1.9 runs per game in last nine tries and hasn’t scored more than four runs in a single game since August 24, covering 13 ballgames. Only twice in their last 13 tries have they managed to get to double digit hits.

The Phillies will open up three games series in Washington (47-90, -32.4 units) and the Nationals have often been the perfect elixir for what ails any team. Washington would have nine game losing streak except for scoring three runs in the bottom of the ninth to come from behind and surprise Florida 5-4 Sunday. The Nationals are 15-42 having lost two of their last three games and are woebegone 2-14 with a day off this season.

Philadelphia will face John Lannon (8-10, 4.09 ERA) who is 0-5 with a 5.89 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies. Ryan Howard and struggling teammates are 27-15 versus left-handed pitchers, scoring 5.3 runs per game in 2009. Bookmaker.com has the Phils as -140 money line favorites behind Pedro Martinez (3-0, 3.52), with a total at Un9. Lannon and the Nats are 12-29 in night games, while the Phillies are 12-4 with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games this season.

Atlanta at Houston

The Braves (70-67, -12.9 units) have played themselves out of wild card contention by losing five straight, the last three at home to Cincinnati scoring four runs against a Reds pitching staff ranked middle of the road at eighth in the National League in runs allowed. Atlanta travels to hot Houston (67-70, +2.4 units) club, who just wiped out Philadelphia four in a row. Atlanta has touched home plate 14 times in last five contests (2.8 RPG), while hitting well below the Mendoza-line as a team with .185 batting average.

We picked a real bad time to all not hit,” Chipper Jones told the Braves official Web site. “It just doesn’t seem like anybody is swinging the bat real well.” Jones is a big part of the offensive misdeeds, batting .121 in his last 20 games.

A change of venue could ignite Atlanta who lost 4-2 Sunday and they are 12-5 in road games after a loss by two runs or less this season. They will turn to Javier Vazquez (11-9, 3.18) who is 22-7 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last two seasons. (Team's Record) The Braves are -140 money line favorites with total at Un8.5.

Houston will try to extend their winning streak to five coming off of three consecutive one-run wins over Philadelphia. Felipe Paulino (2-7, 6.62) will be given the pill, attempting to hold the slumping Braves bats in check and Houston is 20-9 at Minute Maid Park in the second half of the season.

System Play has Nats in nasty spot

The Washington Nationals are like the dimmest bulb on a set of outdoor lights, they standout for not shining brightly. While the Nationals have a comfortable lead as the worst team in baseball with 43-76 record (-24.1 units), they do deserve props for playing like paid professionals and not throwing in the towel. Even with last night’s loss, Washington has won eight of 12, thanks to a potent offense that has average 6.6 runs per game, compared to season average of 4.5 runs per contest.

In spite of playing better baseball, the Nationals have earned their stripes as the worst team in the game. Washington has the highest earned run average in the National League at 4.98. When the starting pitchers fail, which is often the case, a collection of less than desirable relievers take their place, with an even worse ERA (5.07). Washington’s non-starters have brought little relief as 17-33 record proves and the recent spike in run production has helped the closers get over the .500 mark (.533) since the first week of the season.

The Nats were 4-3 losers to Colorado last night in Game 1 of the series and will face the ace of the Rockies staff, Jason Marquis (13-8, 3.55 ERA). The veteran right-hander has embraced pitching for Colorado and has spearheaded a staff which has contributed mightily to the Rockies leading the wild card race in the senior circuit, while within striking distance of the division leading Los Angeles Dodgers.

Colorado (66-53, +10.6 units) is giving no indication of fading away, winning seven of last 11 and continuing to play surprisingly well on the road with 34-30 record, despite a team batting average of .238.

Colorado is 30-14 (+21.5 Units) against the money line after three or more consecutive road games this season and will face starter Collin Balester (1-2, 6.00), who has been allowing the long ball early and often. The rookie right-hander has surrendered three homers and five runs in each of his last two outings. Washington comes into this contest 13-34 revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last two seasons.

If this doesn’t sound like a great situation for Washington, it’s not and Colorado is a -160 money line favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com. Here is the situation the Nationals face tonight.

Play Against home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, who are ordinary offensive team scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs per game, against a good NL starter (ERA of 3.70 or less), after a loss by two runs or less.

This system has been a reliable winner for a dozen years at 52-14, 78.8 percent. For the most part, these games have not been close, opening the door for potential run line action, with a score differential 2.6 runs. Take a closer look at this contest, the odds lineup in the bettor’s favor on the road favorite.

Planning on Winning Sunday at 3Daily Winners

Had a misstep yesterday with 1-2 mark and want to close the week on winning note. To do so have 85 percent system taking place in the Bay Area. Today’s Top Trend involves bad baseball teams, which is worse, keep reading. I’ll throw out my two cents (I actually will wager more) on Free Play. Good Luck

Thought of the day – While most people don’t believe the New York Yankees could lose four in a row to Chicago, don’t count me among them. The Yankees are playing very sloppy baseball, both physically and mentally and though C.C. Money Bags has good history against the White Sox, his recent starts have teams batting .317 against him. Mark Buehrle has poor history against Yanks, but you won’t see me betting against him on a Sunday at the Cell.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a scorching starting pitcher, with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. The pitcher is Cole Hamels, which means San Francisco could be hurting for system that is 51-9, 85 percent since 2007.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Washington Nationals are 0-12 on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season, losing by an average of 2.9 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) I’m as hot as anyone right now with 21 winners in 28 games (not bragging just factual) and I like Toronto to toast Oakland.

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Nats streak in jeopardy facing gruesome system

Breakup the Nationals! That’s what New York, San Diego and Milwaukee are thinking. The Mets and Padres lost series to Washington last week on the road and Milwaukee could become their third straight victim with a victory either tonight or tomorrow. The Nationals have won four in a row and six of eight, picking up seven units of profit for the shrewd sports bettor.

The Nationals are ninth in runs scored in the National League at 4.4 per game and are hotter than scalding water from the plate, averaging 9.5 runs during this winning streak, batting .342 as a team. Washington’s pitching staff has many faults and several ghastly numbers, however, they have held six of last eight opponents to four or less runs.

Washington, honestly (those two words are an oxymoron) should have a better record than 32-68 (-30.3 units), but a group of young starters are going to make mistakes as part of the growing process. Where things really fall apart is when the bullpen has gotten involved.

These non-starters have themselves accounted for 30 losses, while gaining only 11 victories. They have collective ERA of 5.24, having allowed 325 base hits in just over 309 innings, plus walking 173 more batters. Washington is the only team in the Major Leagues with a save percentage below .500, at 44.1 percent, blowing 19 saves in 34 attempts.

This month has been a full-blown disaster for Milwaukee, with seven wins in 23 games, which has seen them drift downwardly to fourth place in the NL Central, after starting July in first place. Brewers’ batters for the most part are holding up their end of the bargain, totaling 10 or more hits in 13 contests this month, but the pitching staff deserves a Dick Enberg “Oh my”.

Milwaukee has lost seven of last nine contests and no wonder, since the pitching staff has ERA of almost seven (6.81), with starting pitchers slightly worse, surrendering 6.89 earned runs and 10 home runs during this time span.

Tonight’s starter Manny Parra, has made a season long contribution to Milwaukee’s below .500 mark (49-51, -6.5 units) with 4-8 record. Parra has ERA of 6.42 and the Brew Crew has won exactly 25 percent of the left-hander’s starts (4-12) in 2009.

Many sports bettors don’t have the cold detachment of the oddsmakers to create a line objectively, based on a body of work, not just recent trends. This is why DiamondSportsbook.com for example has Milwaukee as -195 money line favorites, despite many reasons not to play the Brewers. Here is one outstanding reason to back the Brewers tonight.

Play Against road teams with average offensive, scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against a faulty NL starting pitcher with ERA of 5.70 or higher, with a bad bullpen, whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season.

How this system has proven to work is the road club will return to typical numbers they produce. The opposing teams starting pitcher could well have better outing against an ordinary offensive club and if the game is close in the later innings, the road team’s bullpen will probably find a way to lose the game.

Dating back to when Madeleine Albright became first female Secretary of State of the United States (1997), this system is 34-8, 81 percent. In fact, this system has been especially lethal in the last five years with 20-3 record, with average winning margin of almost two runs.

In Search of Super Saturday

Winner, winner chicken dinner. I said I felt lucky and we nailed all four plays to get us back over 60 percent. Speaking of lucky, I hit another Free Play and go to the Land of 10,000 Lakes to hopefully deliver another. Have a 100 percent reverse Trend and today’s Best System is 85.7 percent. Good Luck.

Baseball Bits: It might only last a day, but 3Daily Winners is #1 in MLB at Free Sports Monitor. I’m not a D-backs fan, but I love the way Dan Haren is pitching. He’s totally dominating. Not saying this is play, however Baltimore is 7-0 after being shutout at Camden Yards. The Left Coast Connection loves L.A. today, playing the two teams for a combined 15-0 today (Halos 9-0, Dodgers 6-0).

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175, who are run of the mill AL offensive team scoring 4.7 to 5.2 runs a game, against a descent starter (ERA of 4.20 or lower), after a combined score of four runs or less. The Red Sox fit the criteria for a system that is 36-6, 85.7 percent since President Bill Clinton bars federal funding for any research on human cloning.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Washington Nationals are 0-12 in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs a game in the second half of the season over the last two years.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Hey this is fun, I’ve hit three in a row here and like the White Sox to continue my winning streak.

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Lining up for Wednesday Winners

It’s it great to follow up losing day with winning day? That’s what we did at 3Daily Winners and we’ll try to keep it moving forward with a Perfect Trend in afternoon action. The Best System is also a matinee affair and is in the burn your hand on door handle desert sun. I’m on 10-3 run and you can get my top play below and sign up to receive them daily to the right >. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: Barry Zito pitched eight and one-third scoreless innings in the Giants 3-0 win over Florida in San Francisco. Between his major-league debut in 2000 and the end of the 2004 season, Zito threw eight-plus innings in a game without allowing a run 11 times, the seventh-highest total in the majors. But this was only Zito's second such game since 2005. The other was last August at San Diego.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like San Diego with a money line of +125 to +175, who can’t hit a lick with batting average of .250 or less, against a decent NL starting pitcher (ERA between 3.70 to 4.20), with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games. Since 1997, this system checks in at 41-9, 82 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) This might be like the Republicans wondering about Mrs. Palin, but the Washington Nationals are 0-12 in road games after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) With a number of my friends going to Cubs game in afternoon and taking train to the South Side, taking the White Sox again today.

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Seeking Terrific Tuesday of Wagering Action

We got hammered but good yesterday, lowering our record to more than respectable 130-87-3 over almost three months of official plays. Time for us to come back quicker than Brett Favre with a Top Trend that is 10-0. We’ll follow that up with 81.4 percent System and hopefully finish it off with a Free Play from Sal for winning slate. Good Luck.

Current Rankings in MLB:

#2 Free Sports Monitor
#3 The Sports Eye Monitor
#7 Cappers Watchdog Monitor

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like the Nationals with a money line of +100 to +150, who lack power (0.9 or less HR's a game), against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less long balls per start, with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season. Playing this system puts you on the winning side 81.4 percent of the time since 2004. (35-8)

Free Baseball Trend -2) Adam Wainwright and the Cards are 10-0 (+11.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game in the second half of the season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) My pal Sal likes the Seattle to brutalize Baltimore tonight.

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The Washington Nationals Stink

Here’s a news flash, the Washington Nationals are the worst team in baseball. OK, not exactly man bites dog material, but aren’t you curious what makes them so bad? Consider right today, they are on pace to have 47-115 record for the season. That would be the worst record since Detroit lost 119 games in 2003 and among the worst since 162-game schedule came into existence. To date, Washington has lost -25.1 units for the sports bettor, which places them at or very near to Arizona’s -60.1 units pace in 2004, which is the standard bearer since 1997.

Just how inept are the Nationals? Start with they are already -93 in runs scored and runs allowed in 2009 (Thru June 24). Why this is important is because they are being outscored by 1.35 runs per game, almost measuring up to the run line on a nightly basis, which includes their victories. The next worst team is San Diego at -72 RS/RA, which is a difference of a whopping 29 percent. For those that that have been betting against Washington on a regular basis, their average margin of loss is OVER three runs per game, that’s AVERAGE.

Since Third Eye Blind had the hit song “Semi-Charmed Life”, 11 teams have lost 28 or more units in a season. There are those that believe playing on the very worst teams in Major League Baseball after the All-Star break since they can’t play any worse and the better clubs won’t take them seriously and you could pick up a +220 underdog winner and cash now and again.

While that sounds really enticing, if you happen to see such an article or piece in a forum or website, email the writer and ask if you could their money to chase those bets. Bad teams as just that, bad.

So what is Washington’s problem? In all honesty it’s not really the offense’s fault, though they deserve some of the blame.

The Nationals rank 20th in runs scored at 4.26 per game, not great, but without a doubt better than Seattle at 3.9 per outing. Washington is 22nd in home runs and their hitters have a very good eye with three balls in the count, averaging 4.1 walks per game, second only to Boston, who is the best in baseball. They do have free swingers and any team with Adam Dunn is going to be ringing up strikeouts and the Nationals total 7.9 per game, which is 26th. Manager Manny Acta’s club lacks clutch hitters, ranking dead last in runners left on base at 8.1 per nine innings.
If it’s not the hitting, it must be pitching and is it ever.

The Nationals front office made the decision they were not going to win with retread pitchers who couldn’t hold jobs with other clubs, thus they decided to throw their youngsters into the fire and live with the consequences. That means John Lannan, Colin Balester, Ross Detwiler, Shairon Martis and Jordan Zimmerman, who are all 24 years old or younger, would be thrown to the wolves and see how they would survive. As expected, the results haven’t been good on almost any level.

Washington surrenders 5.6 runs per game, which is 30th overall. The Nats staff is pounded for 9.5 runs per contest (27th) and concedes the second most extra bases hits at 3.6 PG. The starters are 29th in Quality Starts, with only neighboring Baltimore worse.

With so many youngsters, finding the strike zone on consistent basis figured to be an issue and it is. They allow 4.2 free passes per game (30th) and total 5.6 strikeouts (28th), making it less than challenging to determine Washington is last in K/W ratio.

While the front office wants to develop scare tissue on its kiddie corps, they also keep them on a shorter leash, keeping track of pitch counts. With this many young arms, they build pitch counts quickly, exposing a bullpen ill-equipped to handle the workload. The pen has an ERA of 5.45, which suggests even if the Nationals have a lead late in games, they would be prone to losing leads and they have. Washington’s non-starters have blown 17 saves (which includes more than one in the same game) out of 28 chances, coming in an outlandish 39.2 save percentage. This worn-out group lacks ability and isn’t helped by being just one of four teams in baseball with a single shutout.

Other pitching factors including being 28th in first pitch strikes and they lead the majors in four ball walks.

It’s apparent Washington is in for very L O N G season and they could threaten the 1962 Mets record of 120 losses, though are not likely to finish 60.5 games out of first place like Casey Stengel’s squad did when their were no divisions. The Nationals figure to possibly come close to Arizona’s futility concerning wagering of five years ago at current pace as Play Against team supreme.

The jettison of manager Acta is a foregone conclusion, with the idea of starting a pool and let people pick dates for his departure sort of fun in a morbid way. In a city built on winning at (not the sports teams) any cost, the Nationals are a bad fit.

Trying for Terrific Tuesday

With yesterday’s 0-2 mark, our record of late is 84-56-3, 60 percent on the button. Today is a hard day to wager MLB in my opinion, with many large numbers and underdogs with obvious flaws. The Twins don’t have many flaws in today’s Top Trend. The Best system in is NL and Tim Lincecum will play a role. Paul Buck is back and offers Free Play. Good Luck. By the way, added new feature to bottom of page.

What I learned yesterday -The Yankees played error-free baseball in their 5-2 win at Cleveland, extending their errorless streak to 18 games, a new major-league record. That the Yankees have posted a 14-4 record to move from third place to first during their errorless streak should not be viewed as a coincidence. Over the past two years, since June 1, 2007, they have posted a 131-60 record in games in which they haven't committed an error (.686), compared to a 60-73 mark in games with errors (.451).

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs (Washington) with a money line of +125 to +175, who score between 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against a solid NL starter (ERA of 3.70 or less), after a loss by two runs or less. This sweet system brings home the bacon 81 percent of the time with 51-12 record.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Minnesota Twins are 13-1 after scoring four runs or less five straight games over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck is 6-2 in last eight plays on the base paths and prefers the Dodgers this evening.

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