Central Michigan hosts Toledo

The Chippewas will attempt to keep perfect MAC record (5-0) intact hosting Toledo. The 31-10 loss to Boston College is excusable; being a difficult place to play and it was Central Michigan’s third straight road game. This game matters as the last thing Central Michigan (7-2, SU&ATS) needs is a loss with Northern Illinois nipping at their heels and these two teams facing off in 16 days.

Most coaches have a good sense of what their team needs and CMU head coach Butch Jones felt the extra few days off was a benefit to his squad.

“It was a good break … we were one of the teams in the country who have gone nine straight weeks without a break,” Jones said. “There were bumps and bruises and just the wear and tear of the week-in and week-out stress of playing football, plus six of our nine games were on the road. Four of our five games in October were on the road.”

Quarterback Dan LeFevour will look to get offense back on track for Central Michigan. The Chippewas are believed to have a rather potent offense, yet a closer look reveals a slightly different story. Nothing wrong with averaging 30.6 points per game, however their opponents allow 29.1 PPG. The offense averages 390.8 yards per game, fourth in the MAC, facing opposing teams that concede 380 YPG, hardly overwhelming. The key number for Central Mich. is 28, since they are 8-1 ATS when they cross that point total.

The Chippewas and LeFevour are averaging 50.7 PPG at Kelly-Shorts Stadium and take on leaky Toledo defense being burned for 37.4 points an outing. The Rockets (4-5 SU&ATS) demise from the elite in the MAC has been on this side of the ball and no answers have been forthcoming. If Toledo faces a running team, they easily accomplish 4.9 yards per carry for over 175 YPG and if the opponent passes, plenty of holes in the secondary to throw for almost 250 YPG. The noise you hear is the Chippewas offensive players rubbing their hands together waiting to attack Rockets defense and take on Toledo who is 5-12 ATS as road underdog.

Toledo is built to pass and they really need senior Aaron Opelt throwing the pigskin after missing 2 ½ games with injured wing. He was ineffective in the 31-24 loss as five-point favorites to Miami-O and the hope is the extra time off has healed his shoulder. The Rockets are 6-1 ATS off a spread loss.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Central Michigan as 17.5-point favorites with the total of 61. The best way to attack the Chippewas is running the ball between the tackles like Buffalo did for 223 yards, which opens up the passing game and slows down their pass rush. Toledo is capable of putting up decent running numbers and is 10-1 ATS off a SU and ATS loss vs. opponent off a 10-point or more defeat.

The Chippewas have a good history of coming back after solid loss and are 22-10 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game and 6-0 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards.

ESPN2 has the MAC West encounter at 8 Eastern, with Toledo is 1-4 SU and ATS vs. Central Michigan, yet offers hope with 15-8-1 ATS record in November.

Baffling Buffalos in Toledo

Coach Dan Hawkins must have read motivational books about setting high goals as a method to reach better than expected results. In the off-season, Hawkins stated he expected Colorado to win 10 games this season, which is ambitious to say the least for team picked fourth in the Big 12 North. Nevertheless, unless you set the bar high things won’t change and he’s hoping his son Cody or Tyler Hanson come thru at quarterback. Running back Darrell Scott needs to live up star billing and has the ability to make the Buffaloes special on the ground.

Well, none of this happened in upset 23-17 upset loss to Colorado State in the open in Boulder. The Rams jumped all over Colorado in building 17-0 lead. The Buffalos were forced to play catch-up the rest of the way and had the opposite of what they wanted from offense with 40 pass attempts, compared to 21 runs. QB Cody Hawkins was off target and when he was accurate, balls were clanging off receivers hands.

Defensively, Colorado has to come up with answers beyond a solid linebacker group led by Jeff Smart. The Buffs secondary was burned repeatedly by QB Grant Stucker of the Rams and with Toledo wanting to throw the ball all over the field, as pass rush is tantamount. Colorado is 5-9 and 5-7 ATS the last three years in non-conference games.

It’s a new era of Toledo football with coach Tim Beckman now at the helm. Reports out of Toledo have he’s sold his squad on the fact of taking ownership, convincing them it’s their team, not his. This will be the third time in four years a Big 12 team has visited the Glass Bowl and the Rockets have won and covered the previous two. Toledo has offensive talent with seniors Aaron Opelt under center, running back DaJuane Collins and wide receiver Stephen Williams. This trio contributed to 493 yards in 52-31 loss to Purdue.

Where coach Beckman has to make impact is on defense, a weak spot the last couple of seasons and again last Saturday, where they were run over for 305 yards and passed on for 220 more. Beckman’s background is defense and he likes swarming defenders to the ball. Right now he needs to have about 13 Rocket defenders on the field at all times. The best news is a nationally televised game before an excited Friday night crowd, with Toledo 15-5 ATS in home games off a road loss.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Rockets as 3.5-point underdogs with a total of 54.5 and they are 8-3 ATS as a home underdog, which has included six outright upsets in the last 10 years. Colorado has to be ready to play against fired-up Rockets club or this could be the start of the end of the Dan Hawkins era in Boulder. The Buffaloes are just 4-9 SU and ATS in true road openers.

ESPN will be in Klinger’s backyard (of MASH fame) starting at 9 Eastern and Toledo is 21-7 OVER in home games.