2010 NFL Schedule Observations

The National Football League generated their annual buzz with the release of the schedule. Each home teams fan base immediately started speculating what their team’s record might look like except for Minnesota (they have grandfatherly quarterback from the South who likes to take his time) and Oakland (who doesn’t know the Raiders will have losing record). Sports bettors also like to think about the future, especially the prime time matchups. We’ll start with key games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights, all prime wagering territories.

Thursday feels different

The NFL took John Madden’s advice from several years ago and has made opening weekend a big deal, just like baseball does. That includes a top shelf game to whet the football appetite and Minnesota at New Orleans certainly fits the bill. The home teams are 7-1 and 5-1-2 ATS since this was introduced.

The NFL started sneaking in Thursday games a few years ago and had a more complete slate in the second half starting last year. In order to keep their partners from FOX and CBS happy, for the most part the games lacked pizzazz with mostly mediocre teams playing.

Not this year, bettors will see Baltimore at Atlanta (Week 10), Cincinnati at the N.Y. Jets (Thanksgiving night) and Indianapolis at Tennessee (Week 14) to name a few quality matchups.

Sunday Night Adventures

Since NBC took over the Sunday night package, sports bettors have made this an instant turnaround scenario. This is mostly square action, with NFL bettors trying to cover losses or pressing wins seeking the bigger score. While neither strategy is recommended, no debating the quality of games this far out before the season begins.

Week 1 we have the traditional Dallas and Washington rivalry, almost always good theatre. A number of other excellent divisional matchups will take place like the Jets at Miami (Week 3), the Giants at Philadelphia (Week 11), Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Week 13) and the Eagles at Cowboys (Week 14). One other confrontation could be a ratings bonanza with Minnesota and certain quarterback, visiting his former place of employment Green Bay on October 25.

The Packers are also involved in other entertaining contests, hosting Jerry Jones club in Week 9 and making trip to New England for the first time in eight years on Dec. 19.

Week 2 will conjure up a great deal of intrigue in the “Manning Brothers Bowl” at Indianapolis.

Monday’s with Tirico, Chucky and Jaws

A good portion of last year’s Monday action was terrific, especially early in the year. John Gruden’s enthusiasm carried thru and he and Ron Jaworski talked football for three hours making the booth more true football fan friendly.

Their first assignment is Baltimore at the New York Jets, with Rex Ryan going up against his former team. Later that same night, San Diego makes another opening game appearance on MNF versus another division rival, Kansas City, where they are 3-8 ATS.

This season will feature 13 division rivalry contests, always a treat for the sports bettors with the most anticipated one being Philadelphia in rematch at Donovan McNabb’s new crib in Washington on Nov. 15.

There is only one non-conference hookup and hostility could be in the air if Brett Favre actually does return. Minnesota will visit the new Meadowlands and the New York Jets, which will down as an asterisk in his storied career and one Jets’ fans will not forget for many reasons.

Changes in the schedule

Roger Goodell tried to address the last part of the schedule to become more meaningful and all 16 games the final Sunday of the season will be divisional contests. While some question what Oakland at Kansas City and St. Louis at Seattle might mean, this writer applauds the effort in trying to make the end of the season not just several exhibitions that count in the standings.

In all, 28 division games will be played the last three weeks of the year (29.1 percent of the total).

The NFL has graciously stepped aside from the World Series for years on Sunday night’s in late October, but with falling ratings for the former national pastime, Goodell and the guys decided to make baseball’s life that much more difficult with Nov. 1 conflict of Pittsburgh at New Orleans.

A few scheduling observations………….

No team has a duller schedule than Buffalo. Besides no national TV games, all 16 Sunday contests have a 1:00 Eastern start time.

San Diego is notoriously slow starter, however anything less than 4-2 with at Kansas City, Jacksonville, at Seattle, Arizona, at Oakland and at St. Louis would qualify as not mentally prepared.

Cincinnati is seeking first back to back winning seasons in 28 years with fourth toughest schedule.

Kansas City will have Play Against sequences, with three pairs of two road games.

Cleveland won their last four contests a season ago and could start 2-0 going to Tampa Bay and hosting the Chiefs. The Browns close to the year is taxing. Three straight road games Weeks 13-15 and finishing at home with division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Denver has three consecutive road games in Week 13-15.

Houston has Indianapolis at home and three of next four games against the NFC East to begin 2010.

Washington was 4-12 in 2009; however the power of Mike Shanahan leads to five national tilts.

The Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints move to the role of hunted and first road test in at San Francisco on Monday night.

Dallas finally broke late season blues; however they could return having to face (@) the Colts, Philly, Redskins, (@) Cardinals and (@) Eagles in final five weeks.

Matt Leinart will receive a quick baptism as the Arizona starting quarterback again with three of first four games on the road.

The Cardinals and Detroit have three consecutive home games in Weeks 12-14.

The Falcons have a road game on Oct. 17 and don’t wear visiting uniforms again until Nov. 21 with three home contests and a bye.

Pittsburgh will play three home games and three road games without suspended Ben Roethlisberger and when he returns three consecutive national telecasts at the Saints, Cincy and home with New England.

The normally profitable West to East three time zone games have nine occurrences, with seven having a 1:00 Eastern start (10:00 Pacific for West Coast teams). This is usually the best value early in the season, before teams have traveled much and the Falcons have Arizona and San Fran in town the first four weeks of regular season.

Cowboys at Vikings Preview

Earlier in the season, Minnesota was making an argument they were NFC’s best team. Many football experts are now saying that title belongs to Dallas. That makes for an interesting backdrop for the teams’ Sunday’s divisional playoff.

After a 10-1 start, the Vikings (12-4, 9-6-1 ATS) closed 2-3 SU and ATS, with each loss suffered away from home. That won’t be an issue this time around, playing in the pandemonium of the Metrodome where they were 8-0 and 5-2-1 ATS, winning by 17.2 points a game.

Dallas (12-5, 10-7 ATS) has performed an exorcism of sorts, ending December and late season failures with four wins and covers in a row and winning a playoff game, ending unlucky 13-year drought. This has been especially important for coach Wade Phillips and Tony Romo, the two individuals most associated with the recent lack of success.

When the Minnesota front office stooped to modestly embarrassing levels to get the quarterback they wanted to win the division and hopefully lead them to a Super Bowl, this is what they envisioned to this point. Yes, Brett Favre’s ego could fill all 10,000 lakes in the state of Minnesota, but he has held up his part of the bargain and the Vikings as a team hope to complete the task.

The Dallas defense has been dominating holding opponents to just 54.8 yards per game rushing in their last five contests. This places the burden on the Minnesota offensive line to create holes for Adrian Peterson to nick the Cowboys defense. If Peterson has running lanes, this opens up the play-action passing game and Favre can attack Dallas both short and long.

Favre has a lot of answers to bludgeon opposing teams. Throwing deep to Sidney Rice, short and medium to TE Visanthe Shiancoe and underneath to Percy Harvin with his game-changing explosiveness. Two weeks ago the full arsenal was on display against the Giants and the Vikes are 5-1 ATS after throwing for 250 or more yards. All of this is rendered useless if DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are hanging all over No.4 in purple.

The Dallas defense has had Tim Lincecum stuff the last four weeks, pitching two shutouts and conceding a mere 31 points. Besides the perimeter pressure, the Cowboys secondary has covered receivers like TMZ on Tiger Woods and nose tackle Jay Ratliff has run roughshod on the middle of opposing offenses. Dallas has covered last five contests after permitting 90 or less yards rushing.

Minnesota has not scored less than 27 points at its indoor home, while the Cowboys have only permitted the Giants to break 21-point barrier, which seems something has to give with DiamondSportsbook.com having total of 45.5. Besides limiting scoring, Dallas has to limit Peterson, keeping his runs short and not allowing him to convert on third downs. A.P. lost a league high six fumbles; the Cowboys have to attack him and the ball, since they are 6-18 ATS in road games when they allow 22 to 28 points.

Minnesota is 30-16 ATS vs. excellent ball control teams, who keep the pigskin for 32 or more minutes a game. Their massive defensive tackles helped allow just 87 yards rushing (compared to opponents average of 113) and with Felix Jones providing home run potential out of the backfield, keeping the Cowboys ground attack in check is imperative. Antoine Winfield is not 100 percent, leaving others to corral Miles Austin, who is the big play threat the Cowboys need. This is where DE Jared Allen has to conquer Flozell Adams and make Romo make poor decisions.

The Vikings are well-rested and have more of the onus on them, being at home as 2.5-point favorites and having to fulfill preseason expectations against a hot team. Minnesota is 4-14-1 ATS after allowing less than 15 points in last game and has not covered last four contests as field goal or less favorite. Dallas isn’t the safest wager either, 5-9 ATS dressed as dogs in last 14 tries and 1-4 ATS as playoff club.

Oddsmakers actually opened this game at 48 and it has been drifting downward for apparently very good reason. The Cowboys are 11-1 UNDER on the road after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half (average score 33.7 total points) and the Vikings are 8-1 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more. (Average score 41 total points)

Eagles vs. Cowboys Betting Matchup

The Dallas Cowboys have exorcised one devilish dilemma, winning in December and will look to make it two in a row, trying to find a way to emerge victorious in the postseason. To do so, Dallas will have to trip up Philadelphia for a third consecutive time this season.

The Cowboys swept the regular-season series for the first time since 2005 from the Eagles, and Tony Romo continued his stellar play down the stretch, throwing for 311 yards and two touchdowns. Over his last six games, Romo has thrown for 1,859 yards and 11 scores with just two interceptions.

Philadelphia was thought to be a real threat in the NFC riding a six game winning streak. But as last week pointed out, if the Eagles offense doesn’t keep changing numbers on the scoreboard, they are in trouble. Philly’s defense has become a conundrum, yielding 20 or more points in seven of last nine games, after surrendering that many points just once in their first seven outings.

Andy Reid’s offense has scored only 16 points in two games against Dallas this season, which suggests the Cowboys D is way ahead of Donovan McNabb and the rest of the offense. Philadelphia played tight last week with multiple dropped passes and once again they were too quick to drop the running game (10 carries) after averaging over 28 rush attempts during winning streak. The Eagles are 14-4 ATS in road games revenging a road loss against opponent.

History is on Philadelphia’s side when it comes to the postseason and production. Since 2000, Philadelphia has advanced to the playoffs seven times (6-1 ATS) and won each of its seven opening games.

The last time Dallas won a playoff game, “Independence Day” was the top movie grossing movie back in 1996. The Cowboys defense finished second in the league in points allowed at 15.6 and has better than that in the last nine weeks giving up 13.2. Dallas took full advantage of Nick Cole as he moved from guard to center for injured Jamaal Jackson. Cole will need help in stopping NT Jay Ratliff, which frees up Cowboys inside linebackers in A-gaps for run blitzes.

Bookmaker.com has Dallas one-point heavier favorite than a week ago at four, with total at 45. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS off a win and Romo will look to exploit Eagles linebackers who have trouble keeping track of tight ends. The Boys are 6-1 UNDER as chalk.

Philadelphia is undersized defensively and must find a way to shed blocks quicker. The offense has to find rhythm expediently, which blends the run with the pass. If these two factors are found, Eagles can pull surprise and improve on 7-0 ATS record as road dogs of 3.5 to 10-points.

Philly is 10-4 ATS in Dallas and they are 7-2-1 UNDER in last 10 playoff games.

NFL Week 17 Betting Stuff

This is the final week for sports bettors in the NFL to take one last look at a full card before next September. There are meaningful matchups, potentially interesting contests and other games that are about as intriguing as watching “Cougar-Town”. Let’s take one last ride and go through all the relevant betting information for the final week of the NFL season.

Playoff Picture

The NFC playoff teams are set, it just a matter of who plays who. New Orleans is top seed and Philadelphia is second seed if they win at Dallas. However, if the Cowboys win, there are two ways they could end up with second seed, two ways Minnesota could be second seed and one way Arizona could jump from fourth to second seed. For the wild card, Green Bay is presently fifth seed, but with a loss in the desert, probably falls to six seed. The Eagles will be either a second, fifth or sixth seed.

The AFC wild picture is more muddled, just not at the top; Indianapolis and San Diego are essentially off this week and next (more on that in a moment). If New England wins at Houston, they are third seed, but slip to fourth if they lose and Cincinnati wins later Sunday night. If Baltimore and the New York Jets win, they are the last two playoff teams in the AFC, if they lose; suddenly the Rubik’s Cube is easier to figure out. As a public service here is how it works out in the AFC if either the Ravens or Jets falter.

Real Life or Football

Though football can sometimes feel like life or death, here is further proof it is not. Imagine your company is on pace for record year 10 months into your fiscal and the national sales manager decides to take his key sales people off the road for a couple of weeks during the last two months and let less qualified sales staff handle accounts. The national sales manager’s reasoning is that the company already had a very successful year and company strategists have created bonus plans for the first quarter of the next year if it is a record first quarter. Here’s the kicker, the CEO and president agree with NSM. And the Indianapolis Colts are wondering why they’ve been criticized for not going after 16-0 season.

Week 17 Angles

* Teams off exactly three ATS losses are 8-17 ATS the last week of the regular season.( Jacksonville - Seattle)
* Teams off three or more spread losses are 23-7 UNDER in the last week of the regular season. (New Orleans)
* In the last week of the regular season, home favorites of three or fewer points are 18-10 ATS. (Cleveland – Dallas- Arizona)
* In Week 17, home underdogs off an away game are 4-11 ATS. (Detroit- Oakland – Seattle –Note: These same clubs are also 11-21 ATS off a loss which each suffered)
* Teams that have played Over three times or more coming into the final game of the regular season are 6-1 ATS and 6-1 OVER. (N.Y. Giants – Denver)
* Teams that have played Under exactly three straight games are 7-3 OVER to conclude the season. (New Orleans – Dallas)
* Teams that have played Under four or more games in a row are 23-13 OVER in final contest ( San Francisco- Buffalo- Tampa Bay- Atlanta –New England)
* The Indianapolis Colts are 4-14 ATS in regular season finales.
* The New England Patriots are 18-6 ATS in their last regular season game.
* The Oakland Raiders are dismal 5-17 ATS in their final regular season contest.

Killer NFL Systems

*Play On all teams like Philadelphia when the line is +3 to -3, revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season. Over the last ten seasons, this system is 27-3 ATS, 90 percent.
*Play On a non-conference home teams like San Diego off SU road win in their final game of the season. In the last nine years this system is 12-4, 75 percent.

Super Duper Trends

*Seattle is 0-8 ATS as an underdog this season, losing by 19.9 points per game.
*Arizona is 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons winning by 9.9 points per contest.
*Baltimore is 9-0 ATS playing against a team with a losing record since last season, destroying them by 23 points per game.
*Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS on the road in 2009. (Be careful here, however)
The SU winner of Philadelphia and Dallas is 31-5-1 ATS.

Slippery Slope Situations

*The Green Bay at Arizona contest is one of the three potential matchups for the first week of the playoffs next weekend. Arizona has more to play for since they could move up in seeding; however by game time they will know what they are playing for with Minnesota decision in. In truth, Green Bay could probably care less if they face the Cardinals or Vikings since they are on the road either way. Going into the game, coach Mike McCarthy has to figure its back to the desert and expect vanilla pudding game plans for both squads and a challenging wager any way you want to look at it.

*Cincinnati at New York Jets (See Sunday Night article)

*The Eagles and Cowboys have to give maximum effort with division crown and potentially No. 2 seed on the line. Both teams are playing their best football of the season and with the way New Orleans and Minnesota are struggling, it is not a stretch to surmise the winner of this game could well be the NFC representative for the Super Bowl.

*Bill Belichick has always been intent on winning every game, but the fact remains New England has a home playoff game next week and to get to the Super Bowl they will have to probably defeat San Diego and Indianapolis on the road, thus, which order they would play them has little bearing to them. Houston still has ample motivation, the playoffs are still a possibility, first-ever winning season on the line and creating buzz for next year, plus closing with four-game winning streak, though lamenting 1-5 and 2-4 ATS record in division.

Saints look to go heavenly 14-0

The Saints look to stay perfect when they host the Cowboys in a special Saturday night NFL Network contest. New Orleans has just Dallas, Tampa, and Carolina standing in the way of a 16-0 season, and although being the NFC representative for the Super Bowl is foremost on the coaches and players minds, Sean Payton and his team at least outwardly is embracing the idea of seeking perfection.

New Orleans (13-0, 8-5 ATS) will look to do what they do best, score points. The Saints score NFL-best 35.8 points per game and they have done so against teams allowing 23 PPG. They are still within striking distance of setting the all-time record for points at 36.8, set by the New England Patriots in 2007. New Orleans is 24-4 ATS when they have scored 30 or more points under coach Payton.

The Saints are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS at home, scoring 36.7 PPG. After years of being one of the most melancholy home franchises in the NFL, New Orleans is 11-2 and 10-3 ATS at the Superdome the last two years.

For this contest and the remaining other two, coach Payton would probably like to get more balanced offensively, as they have thrown 90 times compared to 50 rush attempts in last two outings.

Drew Brees is the NFL's top-rated passer, and he leads the league with 32 touchdown passes. Brees can go to four different receivers, all with big play ability and can hand the ball off to three distinct running backs that each have a style and unique way to be productive. Off last week’s win at Atlanta, the Saints are 10-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two seasons.

The sports bettor has to make a decision in the contest, spunk or funk? The Saints have come from behind several times in the second half to win games and Dallas is a December punching bag. After losing to San Diego at home, any talk of Dallas players saying December is just another month is like saying the Cowboys are unbeaten in June.

Dallas last month woes have gotten to them mentally. Though they still have two division games left on the docket, in a lot of ways, this is the swing game. Win at New Orleans and the Cowboys feel like Tiger Woods finding out Elin wants him back without a new pre-nup. Another loss sinks Dallas further into the December abyss and suddenly they have gone from looking like division champions to the Denver Broncos of last season. The Boys are 10-22 ATS in road games off a non-conference clash and as widely reported, 1-9 ATS in December games over the last three seasons.

It would seem logical for the Cowboys to lean on their ground attack, even after it combined for just 153 yards over the last two weeks, because the Saints have struggled against the run and rank near the bottom of the NFL in rushing touchdowns allowed (15). Doing so, however, still doesn’t guarantee that Drew Brees won’t find a way to drop at least four touchdowns on the board, because he can move the offense upfield faster than any quarterback in the league. Throw in Tony Romo’s history of poor play in December—he has a 16-to-19 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 15 final month games and Jerry Jones club at 10-22 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards a game looks about right.

Bookmaker.com has the Saints as 7.5-point favorites with total of 53.5. The New Orleans defense has been picked on and despite incredible offensive numbers; they are just 2-5 ATS in last seven games. The Saints are 8-1 OVER against conference opponents over the last two seasons. Dallas is going to have to generate a pass rush without DeMarcus Ware and they are 9-1 ATS after being burned for 250 or more yards thru the air. The Cowboys are 9-4 OVER as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

Keys to follow are the beginning of the game. Most of the Saints covers have been with fast starts and with raucous crowd, the Cowboys “want to” will be tested early. Wade Phillips will need big game from his offensive and defensive lines to control the game and Romo can’t revert to old ways of chucking the pigskin up for grabs against opportunistic defense.

With Dallas expected to blitz, the Saints immensely effective screen game applies. One aspect in the Cowboys recent losses, Miles Austin has been a non-factor, giving them no long threat.

At the end of this contest, the question will be – Who dat?

3DW Line – New Orleans by 10.5

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror in the NFL

If you played Jacksonville or Kansas City this past Sunday, your nerve-endings were tingling, only to be slapped upside the head late in the game. The Jaguars came into their game against Miami well-positioned at 7-5 to take an AFC playoff berth despite being outscored on the season. Midway thru the second quarter it was apparent, the Dolphins had everything Jacksonville did not. A better running game, solid quarterback play, a stronger defense and more crowd support despite being on the road.

The one thing Miami didn’t have after building 14-0 lead, was ability to put the Jaguars away. Jacksonville, despite being thoroughly outplayed (Fins 22-10 edge in first downs and 137 more yards of offense), were in position to cover the 2 or 2.5-points after a first down on their own 49-yard line with under three minutes to play. The Jaguars had no success running the ball all day (3.8 yards per carry), especially up the middle. On a fourth down and three, to keep the drive alive on the Miami 44, the Jacksonville offensive coordinator calls a David Garrard quarterback draw. Those that had the Dolphins with the points had to be laughing hysterically about one of the most foolish offensive calls all season given the circumstances. Did we at 3Daily Winners miss something in not rolling out Garrard to the right, with a three passing options at 5, 10, and 15 yards? No, let’s run the quarterback draw for a four yard loss.

Thanks to Matt Cassel’s four interceptions (not all his fault) Kansas City could not overcome a bumbling Buffalo team that led 16-10, despite Ryan Fitzpatrick’s gargantuan 86 yards of passing. The Chiefs had one final outstanding opportunity to win the game outright as underdogs in the latter stages of fourth quarter and it underscored the value of talent. On third and ten at the Bills 21, Cassel threw a perfect pass to Chris Chambers at the five yard line, right in his belly, with nobody within three yards of him and he dropped it.

While there is no way to know if Kansas City would have scored a touchdown from there, it brought up another point. San Diego released Chambers earlier this season, as they felt he was no longer able to play for a team that still entertained a deep playoff run. The Chiefs picked Chambers up and he immediately became a big part of the coach Todd Haley’s pass offense.

While Chambers has proved he still has NFL ability, he no longer is coveted by championship-type teams. He’s an adequate fill-in for a team lacking in receivers. Though the top receivers in the game fail now and again, Chambers drop likely was the game and illustrated why the Chefs (intentional) are 3-10 and 5-8 ATS.

This whole Dallas dumping in December is a fact, no matter what coaches, players and a certain owner believes. Since 1996, they are 18-33 SU and they have lost 10 of last 15 in the final month of the year. After all these years, it’s not just bad luck or misfortune; it’s a pattern of behavior.

Do you want to know the problem with the Cowboys, they are front-runners. Much like a horse that races out to early lead, Dallas does the same thing year after year and sports bettors turn into lemmings following “America’s Team”. As opposed to a horse that just tires out, Dallas lacks the mental and intestinal fortitude to tough things out. The last two weeks were examples of the Cowboys not losing to better teams, rather to squads better prepared and with greater desire.

How do measure desire, this way. With San Diego leading 13-10 and 9:13 to go in the game, the Chargers had rushed for 41 net yards to that point. From that point forward, the Bolts ran off over seven minutes off the clock and added 32 rushing yards to their total. The San Diego offensive line, LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles wanted the game just a little more than the Cowboys did at that critical juncture and they took it. It’s not a coincidence the Chargers have won 16 consecutive games in December. Dallas doesn’t have the players that can raise their level of play at crunch time, period, making sportsbooks loads of cash with the public backing the ‘Boys.

Betting points – The Bengals streak of games with the underdog covering (12-0 ATS) this season, ended with curious non-effort in Minnesota. You have to wonder if something is wrong with Carson Palmer, as he threw just 25 times for 94 yards, despite his team trailing by 16 or more points most of the second half. Very much a play against team with four consecutive spread losses.

A quick way to rebuild a wagering account is follow the Oakland Raiders off a victory. With the Washington 34-13 wipeout, since their 2002 Super Bowl season, Da Raiders are 6-20 and 9-17 ATS after posting a W, including 0-4 SU and ATS in 2009.

There is still time to fix it, but New Orleans is losing focus late in the year on a balanced offense. All season coach Sean Payton has mixed the run and pass to near perfection, yet in the last two weeks, both spread defeats, the Saints have thrown 90 times compared to 50 runs. Coach Payton needs to lean more on the running game or a surprise early postseason ouster could be in New Orleans future even if they manage 16-0 regular season.

The AFC has clinched at least a tie in not losing to the NFC in inter-conference play for the 14th straight year. The AFC leads 32-23 and needs just one win in last nine games to take season record to 11-0-3 since 1996. For NFL bettors, it has made little difference with the record 27-27-1 ATS this year.

Dialing up a 3-0 Sunday, hopefully

We tracked a 2-0 record yesterday officially and will try and build on that number this Sunday. We have an awesome NFL system in a non-conference game that is 86.3 percent since the turn of the century. Found a prefect trend in the NFL that is certainly odd and Nick will try and keep hot streak going with his Free top choice. Good Luck

What is learned yesterday – Shoppers appear to be out in good numbers, however the number of bags and what is in them is smaller. Last year retailers were panicky and started pounding sales, this year not as much. The cat and mouse game has begun, who gives in first?

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) Play Against a home team if they and their opponent were underdogs of nine or more points last week. This system which dates back to 2000 is 19-3 ATS and the team that fits is Oakland.

Free Football Trend-2) Came across this by accident, the underdog in the Cincinnati Bengals games is perfect 12-0 ATS this year.

Free Football Pick -3) Nick of the LCC is 27-10 in all plays over the eight days and is on Dallas as Top Play.

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

NFL Week 14 Key Games

With a quarter of a season to go, the NFL schedule-makers offer us thought provoking matchups that could send teams down different paths than it looked a few weeks ago. The Cincinnati offense has been languishing, despite adding up victories and figures to have to score at Minnesota. Denver has rebounded with a couple of wins, can they put the brakes on Colts perfect season? The Cowboys final month travails are potentially enhanced with a wicked December slate, now having to face one of the hottest teams in the league from San Diego. Miami and Jacksonville doesn’t generate much buzz outside of the sunshine state, yet both are still in AFC playoff hunt. New England, what is going on? Carolina is about to find out.

Cincinnati at Minnesota 1:00E CBS

Intra-conference division leaders collide in Minnesota, with each hoping to get closer to locking down their titles. The Vikings (7-4-1 ATS) are 10-2 after losing at Arizona. The other loss was of course, at the hands of Cincinnati’s rival, the Steelers. The Bengals (6-6 ATS) are 9-3, embarking on a road trip that features stops at the Metrodome and at San Diego. They will be the underdog in both, which may be a welcomed sign for Marvin Lewis, whose team is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in the dog role this season. They are also 3-0 vs. the NFC and have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall vs. the opposite conference. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS at home under Brad Childress in the final four weeks of the regular season. The host has been less than cordial in last three meetings between these teams, winning by 17.7 points per game.

Keys to the Game-

Cincinnati has established they can run the ball, ranking sixth at 133.9 yards per game. It is now time to fix the passing game, which has averaged 156.5 yards per game the last month. That might work against the three crummy teams they just played (though they failed to cover each contest), but it won’t cut it come playoff time. No Chris Henry in the slot weakens Bengals passing, however somebody has to take the challenge and Carson Palmer has to be more precise. The Bengals defense has incurred far more injuries than the offense and they keep playing at high level. They will have to on Vikings carpet, first containing Adrian Peterson and then pressuring Brett Favre similar to what Arizona did last week. If not, Cincy falls to 2-10 ATS on the road off a SU non-division victory.

After a slower than expected start, the Minnesota run defense has moved up to second in the NFL. (Behind the Bengals) The front four is going to have to make a few more plays with middle linebacker E.J. Henderson gone for the year. Rookie Jasper Brinkley has to make enough plays to cover up for the loss. The Vikings have to force Cincinnati to throw the ball. Minnesota is 0-7 ATS home off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite and they will add another if they give Peterson only 13 carries like they did last week. The Cardinals did a great job pestering Favre; still Peterson has to have more touches.

3DW Line – Minnesota by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Minnesota -6.5, 43.5

Miami at Jacksonville 1:00E CBS

Though both Miami and Jacksonville play in the AFC, they aren’t exactly rivals, as they meet more in the preseason than they do when it matters. In fact, this will be just the fifth all-time meeting, as each team looks to hang on in the AFC wildcard hunt. The Dolphins (6-6 ATS) are still breathing after upsetting New England, but at 6-6 would need to win out vs. four other fellow contenders to even have a shot. The Jaguars (5-7 ATS) are 7-5, and although their chances are better, their stats (-4.0 PPG margin) and upcoming schedule (Indy, at N.E.) suggest a postseason berth isn’t in their future either. Jacksonville moved to 2-4 ATS in 2009 at home (5-1 SU) after defeating Houston and is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games in a half full stadium. In this series, the Jaguars own a 3-1 SU and ATS edge, having met most recently in 2006 in Miami. Fins now 5-0 SU in December last two years.

Keys to the Game-

Miami offered Jacksonville a new look from last week’s game film, they did not run the Wildcat one time. Ricky Williams is more conventional back, and to coach Tony Sparano’s credit, he’s willing to adjust to need or opponent as Chad Henne checked the pigskin 52 times last week. Being versatile and less predictable is important, but greater point production is needed on the road, where the Dolphins are scoring 17.5 points a game. (28.8 PPG at home) On defense, attack QB David Garrard, who has put the ball on the ground 12 times (eight lost) and seems less confident with collapsing pocket. Miami 8-1 ATS in road games after one or more wins over the last three seasons and has to win fourth quarter like they did against New England, having given up a franchise record 134 points in the last final 15 minutes already.

Like every other opposing team, Miami will try to take away Jaguars run game. Jacksonville must be persistent, since they are 7-1 (5-3 ATS) when they rush 26 or more times and 0-4 SU and ATS when they don’t. Jacksonville has to roll Garrard out, since he is sitting duck in the pocket and create three layers in passing game to give him choices. The Jags are deplorable 1-11 ATS as a favorite since last season and they better be prepared for multiple Miami attack or they will be caught off guard like they were against San Francisco two weeks ago.

3DW Line – Miami by 4
Bookmaker.com Line – Jacksonville -2.5, 43.5

Denver at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

Indianapolis (12-0, 8-4 ATS) remains unbeaten and is already in the uncomfortable position of wondering whether or not to rest starters in its remaining games. The rest of the AFC is hoping that the Colts don’t, as Denver (8-4 ATS) is in the thick of a wildcard logjam at 8-4. For head coach Jim Caldwell’s team, the Broncos represent the foe on their remaining schedule with the best record, thus potentially the greatest chance for getting knocked off. For the Broncos, this is the first of two tough remaining road games and they are 4-2 SU & ATS away in ’09. These teams have become somewhat regular combatants in recent years, and Indy owns a 6-2 SU and ATS record in the series the previous seven seasons. In the last encounters in Indianapolis, the Colts are 3-0 SU & ATS with an average victory margin a colossal 24.7 PPG.

Keys to the Game-

The Colts are going to bring pressure off the edges and Kyle Orton has to be wise to protect the pigskin and not put the ball up for grabs like last week when he was picked three times. Denver’s offensive tackles have to use outside leverage to push Indianapolis defensive ends outward and be ready for spin moves to the inside. The Broncos are 29-13 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points a game and have to take chances on offense and defense to stay close to San Diego in the AFC West. Denver has done fine work in not allowing the deep ball; however Peyton Manning can pick any defense apart strolling down the field. Defensive backs are going to have to take a few risks.

Indianapolis keeps winning and they are attracting sharp action again thanks to running the ball to balance the offense. Joseph Addai has been running with great authority and not coincidently, the Colts have covered last three contests. Look for Manning to be aggressive early and Indy to try and build quick, forcing Denver out of their game plan, making their ability to get after Orton more effective. The Colts are 20-7 ATS after two consecutive covers as a favorite.

3DWLine – Indianapolis by 14
DiamondSportsbook.com Line –Indianapolis -6.5, 44

Carolina at New England 1:00E FOX

The Patriots (6-6 ATS) have lost three of their last four games to slip to 7-5 on the season, just a game up on both Miami and New York for the AFC East title. New England’s remaining schedule is very manageable, starting with this contest vs. Carolina, so you have to still like their chances. Over the last 4+ seasons, the Pats are just 4-5 ATS hosting NFC foes. They are a perfect 6-0 SU at home this year, having covered four of those games while winning by 18.2 points per game. The Panthers are 5-7 and ATS after beating Tampa Bay, but relegated to the spoiler role the rest of the way, facing teams with a combined winning percentage of 77 percent over the final four weeks. Carolina is 0-3 SU & ATS vs. AFC East foes in this season after a 4-0 ATS non-conference mark a year ago.

Keys to the Game –

Carolina won last week but was outgained by 160 yards by the Bucs. It’s hard to fathom last Sunday’s ultra-conservative approach will work on the road, let alone in New England. The Patriots are ordinary against the pass and if backup Matt Moore is good enough to be on your roster as a professional quarterback, let him act like one and throw the ball down the field. The Panthers have to play the perfect game or be completely out of character. The former hasn’t happened much, so big daring, run Steve Smith out of the wildcat, throw on first down, send seven pass rushers at Tom Brady, anything to give yourself a more unique chance to win. The Cats are 10-1 ATS vs. opponent off consecutive losses, with the last being as a favorite.

Its evident things are out of whack in Billy’s world. Last quarter losses with leads, offense inefficient in the red zone and sending players home being late for meetings, at least where the media picks up on it. It’s been coming and New Orleans perfected it, rush three and double Randy Moss and Wes Welker, forcing Brady to find alternative. This is test for Moss to show how badly he wants to win, fighting to get open and not giving off visibly bad body language. Patriots have to stout in the middle to corral Panthers running game. Force Moore to beat you thru the air. With Carolina’s presumably limited offense, New England is 22-7 ATS when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards.

3DW Line – New England by 12.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New England -13, 43.5

San Diego at Dallas 4:15E CBS

Dallas continues its most difficult stretch of the season when it hosts the Super Chargers (Chris Berman reference). San Diego (6-6 ATS) has won seven straight games to reach 9-3 and has its sights set on a first round bye. Under Norv Turner, this has been the time of the year where the Chargers have played their best football, boasting an 8-2 ATS December mark. They are also 8-1 ATS in the second half of the season vs. good offensive teams gaining 5.65 or more yards per play in his tenure. Dallas (6-6 ATS) averages a lofty 6.7 YPP but finds itself in a tight NFC East race after losing to New York. Since dropping the new stadium opener, the Cowboys have won five straight at home, holding three teams to a TD or less while going 4-1 ATS. They are on a 3-7 ATS slide vs. the AFC, including 2-3 ATS at home.

Keys to the Game-

Dallas averages five yards per carry and San Diego is 21st versus the run. The Chargers are going to have to find a way to stop the terrific trio of Cowboys running backs. Lost in the winning streak is faulty tackling that has permitted foes to gain more yards than they should. Be dogmatic in wrapping up and keep a steady beat on Tony Romo to force miscues. Phillip Rivers offense has nabbed a 7-0 lead in six of the wins during this streak, which has allowed San Diego to set tempo. Do it to Dallas and 25-10 ATS road record vs. the NFC is within reach.

The Cowboys started December in New Jersey playing like they were waiting for something bad to happen and when it did; players in the foreground and background were seen shaking their heads. Championship teams don’t dwell, they move on to next play which is what the Cowboys have to do. San Diego is going to make great plays and force bad plays; it’s how Romo and the defense react to situations that will shape this NFC-AFC matchup. The Chargers have a full arsenal, controlling check-downs or predesigned passes to LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles forces Rivers to look elsewhere.

3DW Line – San Diego by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -3.5, 48.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror

The old story about defenses winning championships has held up to the test of time. On weekly basis this can also be the case, when defensive failures lead to losses. Two teams Sunday that have set high standards this decade were victims to such occurrences.

The defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers have lost four in a row and are not getting much done defensively. The numbers still show the Steelers are among the best in football, but against the Oakland Raiders Sunday, they looked more like the Cleveland Browns.

The Steelers held THREE fourth quarter leads against the Raiders and couldn’t hold any of them. The new sensational pitch and catch tandem of Bruce Gradkowski and Louis Murphy was unstoppable. When you consider Pittsburgh was a 15-point favorite and Oakland had three total touchdowns in the last quarter in 11 previous games this season, it’s shocking how far the Steelers have fallen since destroying Denver on Nov. 9.

For all the Bill Belichick apologists that felt he made the right move in going for first down at Indianapolis, subsequent losses to New Orleans and Miami have suddenly made the AFC East race more compelling with a month to go. The New England defense isn’t holding up, so maybe Belichick was right and followed his beliefs. This past weekend, Chad Henne went toe to toe with Tom Brady and his team emerged victorious. The other former Michigan quarterback threw for 335 yards against Patriots secondary.

With inferior talent on the last line of defense, New England has been lit up officially for 316, 367 and 328 yards passing in three of the four weeks. The trade of DE Richard Seymour is looking worse all the time, as the Pats have no pass rush. About the only good news is the remaining schedule includes Carolina, @ Buffalo, Jacksonville and @Houston. They should be favored in each and have excellent chance to be paper champs at 11-5, but certainly not feared.

The Dallas Cowboys December woes have been well documented, but what kind of a game plan was that on Sunday in the Meadowlands? Tony Romo was asked to throw 55 times against the Giants. If the Cowboys were trailing 17-0 at the end of the first quarter and were not having much luck catching up, that figure would at least have some credibility. However that wasn’t the case, at all. Dallas trailed by just seven points midway thru the fourth quarter, which was their largest deficit to that point in the game. Having one of the best running games in the NFL, they ran a ridiculous 23 times and played like they were the underdog instead of the favorite. The Dallas coaches get a D- for first Cowboys effort in December with San Diego up next.

If you have ever had your hand slammed by a door, that was similar to the pain Cincinnati backers felt when Detroit back-doored the 13-point favored Bengals with 96 seconds to play.

On Monday and Tuesday, the Tennessee Titans looked like a good bet at Indianapolis, catching seven points. Late Tuesday or Wednesday day depending on the sportsbook, the Titans went to +6.5. By Friday, most of the public money was on Tennessee and according to Las Vegas sources, a good chunk of sharp action was also backing Jeff Fisher’s club. A quick perusal of some forums over the weekend that have handicappers picks listed, showed the Titans as a 25-1 choice, easily the highest I’d seen all season, this going against an unbeaten team playing at home. The rest is history as the Colts covered rather easily.

There are points in a game where it makes sense to go for touchdowns as opposed to field goals and unquestionably having the advantage of looking back offers far greater clarity than living in the moment. Twice coach Fisher went for first down and or touchdowns and failed trying to lower a 24-10 deficit. Looking back, if he would have kicked very makeable field goals from short distances, Tennessee would have trailed just 24-16, still having time to make up the eight points.

Pop the Falcons out of the microwave, they are done.

It was a wild Sunday for bettors, as 10 underdogs covered the spread, which included six of those pooches winning outright. Friends on the Strip tell me it was easily the most profitable NFL weekend of the year, which was made all that much sweeter by Arizona’s easy upset victory over Minnesota.

New England loss wiped out a vast number of parlays and New Orleans decision to kick a field goal in overtime after taking it all the way down to one yard line destroyed six-point parlay cards. As a Las Vegas source told me, “The bean counters will be sending out rare positive emails to their least favorite aspect of the casino.”

Wagering Info for Week 13 of the NFL

December not only brings the cold winds and frigid temperatures, but a frosty end to many professional teams playoff hopes. The New York Giants are among those that have to come up with a winner, especially playing rival Dallas at home. In a conflict Alfred Hitchcock would enjoy, it’s the battle of birds down south. For the Eagles and Falcons, it’s about finding healthy players to perform. Houston blew two leads at home to all but crush their playoff dreams, now they will try and do the same to Jacksonville on the road before all 30,000 Jags fans. Tennessee is living the dream and is halfway to finishing the year 10-0, facing unbeaten Indianapolis. Coach Bill Belichick has been served a piece of humble pie besides the usual pumpkin and will look to regroup in Miami to start an extended winning streak.

Philadelphia at Atlanta 1:00E FOX

The Eagles and Falcons are two of the handful of teams in contention for the NFC Wildcard spots, so a loss in this head-to-head matchup would be devastating for either. If history is any indication, Atlanta could be in trouble, as Philadelphia (6-5 ATS) owns a 7-3 SU & 8-1-1 ATS edge in the last 10 games of the series. However, most of those matchups were in Philly, evidenced by the fact that the home team is on a 6-1 SU & ATS run in that span. The Falcons are in the middle of a three-game homestand and are 6-5 after beating Tampa Bay. They are 7-4 ATS in 2009, including 4-1 ATS at home. The Eagles, 7-4, begin a critical two-game road set in this one, with the next stop in the Meadowlands. The head-to-head series between these teams has also been low scoring, with seven of the previous going UNDER.

Keys to the Game-

In this confrontation of attrition, Philadelphia has the edge, having worked through it. No Brian Westbrook, rookie LeSean McCoy has stepped right in and looked comfortable. Explosive DeSean Jackson out, another rookie Jeremy Maclin steps in. Coach Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have to work better in the red zone, as K David Akers needs to make appearances for extra points, not field goals. The Eagles too often have played to level of competition, with Falcons missing offensive firepower, go win the game in the first half and stop dawdling like last week against Washington. If they don’t, Eagles are unlikely to improve upon December record of 2-10 ATS on the road against non-division team with revenge.

Backup Chris Redman will make his 11th career start filling in for Matt Ryan and has to keep his head from spinning all the way around with the dizzying array of blitzes he is certain to face. Be confident, make the right read and hit the hot receiver. The Falcons offensive line will have to be a difference-maker against 8th ranked run defense. Yes Michael Turner is out and Jerious Norwood is dinged, but they have to create running lanes for plugger Jason Snelling to run thru or 4-14 ATS mark as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points is a distinct possibility. The front four has to step up to protect 27th ranked pass defense.

3DW Line – Philadelphia by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -5, 43.5

Houston at Jacksonville 1:00E CBS

The Jaguars and Texans both maintain wildcard hopes but it is getting late for Houston (5-5-1 ATS), who is 5-6 after losing to Indianapolis. They are now 1-4 in divisional games this season, including a 31-24 home loss to Jacksonville back in September. That sets up a nice spot for head coach Gary Kubiak’s team who is on a 16-6 ATS run revenging a loss where the opponents topped the 28-point mark. Coach Jack Del Rio’s team is off another horrible trip west, a 20-3 setback to the 49ers which dropped their record to 6-5. This starts a three-game homestand for the Jaguars (4-7 ATS), who are desperate to improve a 2-11 ATS slide in home games over the last season-and-a-half. Houston, who has played surprisingly well on the road, 7-2 ATS in its last nine and is also 5-2 ATS at Jacksonville since 2002.

Keys to the Game-

For whatever reason, quarterback Matt Schaub seems more comfortable on the road than at Reliant Stadium. The Texans score 26.2 points per game away from Houston and 21.3 at home. Schaub has the ability to help his team win three road games in a row, but must avoid throwing interceptions and fumbling like last week to give his club a chance. The Texans are 16-7-1 ATS off consecutive spread losses and have to lower pad level to contain Maurice Jones-Drew or he will run wild vs. defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry (31st).

Jacksonville is being dissed in spite of winning record, however when you have allowed 53 more points than you’ve scored, scrutiny is sure to follow. The Jaguars pass defense ranks 26th, but Texas will have third new starter this season at left tackle, which means load up on that side and pressure Schaub’s backside. The Jags are 1-8 ATS at home against AFC opponents since last year and can turn that number around by getting Jones-Drew started early in piling up yards and deflating Houston’s spirit. Jacksonville is really the team with something to play for and has to protect David Garrard, since they are 4-15 SU when he is sacked three times or more.

3DW Line – Houston by 7
Bookmaker.com Line – Houston -2.5, 47

Tennessee at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

When Indianapolis and Tennessee last met, the Titans were a different team. The Colts’ win in that contest sent coach Jeff Fisher’s team to 0-5, but since eventually dropping six straight, Tennessee (5-6, 5-5-1 ATS) has come alive, winning its last five games to climb back into playoff picture. This one, in Indy, will be their most difficult task remaining as well, and a three-game homestand is next on tap. The Colts (11-0, 7-4 ATS) have won five of last six games when hosting Tennessee, and are 4-2 ATS in that span. However, they are just 2-7 ATS in their previous nine as a divisional host and 1-4 ATS at home in ’09 overall. Looking to remain perfect, head man Jim Caldwell’s team plays three of its final five games at home. The Titans wrap up their divisional slate this week and are 2-3 SU and ATS vs. AFC South foes.

Keys to the Game-

Adrian Peterson might be the best running back in the NFL; nevertheless the hottest is Titans Chris Johnson. The former East Carolina star is the league’s leading rusher at 1,396 yards and is on streak of 125 or more yards in last six contests. Ideally, Tennessee would prefer Johnson to grind out consistent yardage to keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines, but going the distance for six is solid alternative. Vince Young is an incredible story no matter who decided to make him starter. Each game he develops another phase and could give Colts a headache if he leaves the pocket, running or throwing for first downs. Tennessee will be better prepared defensively having complete secondary back, which wasn’t the case in the first matchup. Frustrate Indy into kicking field goals and Titans could march to 10-0 ATS in road games after four or more consecutive non-losses against the spread.

The Colts may be 11-0, but the Titans are hot. Manning had four interceptions in first seven games, but has seven picks in last four. No need to give piping-hot club a reason to feel better about itself. With no Bob Sanders at safety, the job likely falls to Melvin Bullitt to “spy” Young. He has to be physical and remember to take the legs of the tall Texan to prevent big plays. Tennessee is only 4-13 ATS versus excellent offensive teams averaging 375 or more yards per game, put the pressure on their offense to match points by scoring on each possession if possible. Indy linebackers are mostly faceless; however they will have to be at their best to control the speedy Johnson.

3DW Line – Indianapolis by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line –Indianapolis -6.5, 46

New England at Miami 1:00E CBS

Miami’s (5-6 SU & ATS) playoff hopes took a crushing blow when it lost in Buffalo 31-14. They may be relegated now to the spoiler role, and will try to do just that to New England’s quest to obtain the AFC’s #2 seed in the postseason. For coach Tony Sparano’s team, it was a first divisional ATS loss of the year (3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS). The Patriots (7-4, 6-5 ATS) are 3-1 in division game so far but just 1-3 ATS. Their only loss was at the Jets in Week 2, which snapped a six-game SU & ATS winning streak on the road vs. AFC East foes. This is their second meeting of the season with New England having won the first at home last month, 27-17, failing to cover an 11-point spread. Favorites are on an 8-3 SU and ATS run in the last 11 matchups between these rivals in Miami, and the Dolphins are 2-5 SU & ATS as a home dog under Sparano.

Keys to the Game –

It was a rare sight indeed, coach Belichick waving the proverbial white flag in having Tom Brady take a seat this past Monday night in New Orleans. The disappointment was so profound, Brady felt compelled to issue statement - "the mourning period is over", this past Wednesday. This is not Patriots team of earlier this decade, yet they still could win next five games and possibly earn second seed, starting with win in Miami. New England has to let Saints loss go and focus on Ricky Williams, who has raised his level of play since Ronnie Brown went down, having at least 100 yards with three touchdowns in each of the past three games. The Pats are puny 1-4 on the road this season with two covers and better be ready to wrap up Williams if they expect to move to 40-21 ATS in road games versus division opponents.

Coach Sparano is emotional leader and a few times it seems those emotions have gotten the best of him in making questionable decisions that cost the Dolphins who have a thin margin for error. Having tricks and surprises is part of being a good coach, but taking chances for lesser rewards won’t have you beat New England. Joey Porter and the Miami defense generated six sacks last week, but none were important in the “clutch” context of the game, which led to Buffalo upset. The defense can sack Brady on first down, but if they allow him to complete third down pass for first down, it was all for naught. The Fins are just 5-16 ATS at Landshark Stadium since 2007.

3DWLine – New England by 6
Bookmaker.com Line – New England -4, 46

Dallas at N.Y. Giants 4:15E FOX

New York already won in Dallas in Week 2. Another victory over the Cowboys at home gets the Giants (6-5, 5-6 ATS) back into the race for the NFC East title. Currently Tom Coughlin’s team trails Dallas by two games in the standings, with Philadelphia sandwiched in between. The Eagles are next up for the Giants at the Meadowlands, so this is a critical homestand for New York. Both teams are 2-1 in divisional play so far in ’09. At 8-3, the Cowboys (6-5 ATS) face a brutal five-game season ending schedule and haven’t had a winning post-Thanksgiving campaign since 2004, with unimposing 4-14-3 ATS record in that span. New York is 21-9 ATS under Coughlin vs. offenses gaining 350 or more yards per game. Favorites have won the last four games between these teams in New Jersey and are 4-0-1 ATS. Six of last eight have gone OVER at Giants home.

Keys to the Game-

It’s about time Dallas puts together a December to remember, instead of how they have failed the last decade (17-29 SU L10Y). It begins with the offensive line, they’ve helped Cowboys to No.6 rushing attack (138 YPG), but Tony Romo has already been sacked a career-high 25 times. The Giants sack numbers are down, but they are wholly capable. The Dallas secondary was toasted 330 yards passing in the first meeting however has improved considerably, now up to 14th in yards per pass attempt. The Giants passing game has been mostly ineffective, save the win over Atlanta, there only W in last six outings. Cover up receivers and pressure Eli Manning. Cowboys have to attack aggressively to shake the doldrums of the final month of the season, yet they are measly 10-21-1 ATS on the road off two SU wins.

The Giants have lost their offensive identity. New York is designed to be running team first and in five opening victories they averaged 36 carries per game. In the subsequent six contests, they averaged just over 24 attempts. Don’t blame it trailing in losses, as they’ve had a second half lead in three of their last encounters. In the NFL, when things are not going well, they tend to snowball and Brandon Jacobs might be Giants only healthy running back. Manning could use the help as he has a stress condition in his right foot, which could account for accuracy issues. The G-Men are 13-4 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons and D-Line has to bother Romo throughout to protect tremulous secondary.

3DW Line – Dallas by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -1.5, 45.5

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Happy Thanksgiving to All

It’s a splendid day to slow down, take a break and enjoy life. Let the big box store’s try and fool us thinking they have safety concerns about the day after Thanksgiving, giving them a reason to be open today. At least most of us understand what today is, a day for thanks for all the good things that come to us. In addition, besides great food and family, we receive a healthy portion of football, to which a few dollars could be set aside to hopefully also make it a profitable day in other ways. Here’s a look at the day time action. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Green Bay at Detroit (+11.5, 47.5)

Dating back to 1934, the Lions have been a proud part of the American celebration of Thanksgiving Day. They’ve played 69 games on the national holiday and take a 33-34-2 record into this year’s contest against Green Bay. Detroit (2-8, 2-7-1 ATS) has dropped five straight up and against the spread on the fourth Thursday of November while being outscored by a lopsided 168-60 margin, and comes into this game winners of just three of its last 32 games (10-21-1 ATS) dating back to the halfway mark of 2007.

Since Green Bay won 37-26 as a field goal favorite two years ago, coach Mike McCarthy’s team has beaten the Lions four straight times (1-3 ATS), with an average score of 34.8-14.8. In fact, Detroit hasn’t won outright in this series since 2005, a span of eight games (2-6 ATS). The game is very important for Green Bay, 6-4 after beating San Francisco this past Sunday and currently is the top NFC wild card team.

Green Bay’s defense is ranked third overall in yards allowed, but it has been feast of famine in points conceded. In the Packers six victories, they have only surrendered more than 17 points once (5-0-1 ATS) and in the four losses, they have allowed 30 or more points (0-4 ATS). They shutout Detroit 26-0 in earlier meeting and are 9-4 ATS as road favorites, however, a great deal of shifting has to occur with Al Harris and Aaron Kampman done for the year with knee injuries.

The Packers will face a similar Detroit offense in the rematch. The Lions are expected to be without rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford and third-year wide receiver Calvin Johnson because of injuries. Daunte Culpepper will again get the start in place of Stafford and had a miserable day the last time (6-for-14, 48 yards, one interception) before leaving in the third quarter with a hamstring injury. It’s unfortunate for coach Jim Schwartz , since Stafford had a career day last week, setting a league mark for most touchdown passes (five) in a game by a rookie. His last one, with no time left, beat Cleveland 38-37. The Lions are 6-16 ATS off one or more straight Overs and 1-8 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last three seasons.

Detroit hasn’t won back to back games since games 6-thur-8 in 2007; however Green Bay on this day will often bring out the best in them, just like in 2003, when they won 22-14 as a touchdown underdog. The Lions are 8-0 ATS at home in November against teams off consecutive wins.

3DWLine – Green Bay by 13.5 (color for the day)

Oakland at Dallas (-13.5, 40)

Of late, Thanksgiving Day has been more like Groundhog Day, with Detroit losing early game and Dallas winning big in the late afternoon tilt. In fact, the last Turkey Day wins by the Cowboys have been by 25, 31 and 28 points. They are expected to win big again in ’09, with the Oakland coming to town for the inaugural holiday affair at brand new Cowboys’ Stadium.

Dallas comes in with a 7-3 (5-5 ATS) mark after surviving Washington, but is now just 3-6 ATS as double-digit chalk under Wade Phillips. However, they will be looking to extend a run of 29-14 ATS at home in the month of November.

The Cowboys will like the person who hid the big turkey leg in the back of refrigerator for later consumption, sifting thru the maze of food to find it. After averaging 30.2 points per game starting Oct. 11, Dallas has two touchdowns in the last two games in totaling a mere 14 points, which all came in the fourth quarter. The Boys will be searching for offense and are 29-14 ATS in home games after scoring 14 points or less last outing.

This will be Oakland’s first appearance playing on Thanksgiving since the AFL and NFL merged in 1970. The Raiders (3-7, 5-5 ATS), much like recent times, lost 28-14 to Detroit in that game, with one difference, they were an elite team back in yesteryear.

This is Oakland’s first visit to Big D in 11 years and is coming off rare victory last week in upset of Cincinnati 20-17. Coach Tom Cable had seen enough of JaMarcus Russell and his poor work habits and has turned the team over journeymen Bruce Gradkowski. The former Toledo star has about one-fifth the ability of Russell, but proved last week he’s a fighter and played inspired football. Among the issues in this contest is the Raiders run defense, which is 30th overall and they are 17-33 ATS versus good rushing teams like Dallas (5 YPC), averaging 4.5 or more yards per carry.

Oakland is 4-1 ATS as a dog of 10-points or more under coach Cable, but if they trail at halftime, don’t expect and comeback from the Silver and Black, as they have scored only 42 points in the final 30 minutes on the season, with a grand total of three trips into the end zone. (None in the third quarter)

The culprit is the lack of passing game, which averages an unfathomable 125 yards per game and Dallas is 15-3 ATS at home vs. destitute passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards per attempt, winning by 17.4 points per game.

3DW Line – Dallas by 16

New York Giants at Denver (+6, 42.5)

The Thanksgiving Night game offers the best matchup of the three holiday tilts, as the Giants will be visiting the Broncos. Both teams started fast, with New York winning its first five games, and Denver winning its first six, but each have since faded. Both teams are 6-4 heading into this contest and in need of a win to keep pace in the playoff hunt.

New York (5-5 ATS) only plays Denver once every four years, but folks of the Big Apple always seem to have fond memories of playing the team in blue and orange. Besides the infamous 39-20 Giants win in Super Bowl XXI, Big Blue fans also remember knocking off a previously undefeated Broncos team in 1998, although John Elway would later lead his team to a second straight Super Bowl title a month later.

The 2009 version of this matchup should also provide a bit of drama since both teams once seemed secure in their playoff prospects, but now find themselves in a perilous position, with the loser lacking relevancy with December arriving next week.

A bye week served New York well and it got by Atlanta in overtime, 34-31. It also helped the Giants that Dallas, Philadelphia and the Falcons all lost while they were idle. A nagging issue has arisen, with the Giants incapable of holding fourth quarter leads, giving up a late touchdown to San Diego, causing a 21-20 defeat and surrendering two TD’s to Atlanta in the final stanza, sending last week’s contest into overtime. Possibly the best news moving forward is the G-Men are 18-5 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.

For the Giants, it’s the first visit to Denver since 2001, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. AFC foes and 9-1 ATS in previous 10 second half contests on the road vs. winning teams.

If any of this is cause for alarm, at least New York won their last game. Denver’s 6-0 start was the talk of the league and rookie head coach Josh McDaniels received more acclaim than the highly praised football drama “The Blind Side,” but four straight losses without covers has squelched all that talk. The latest, a 32-3 blowout defeat to surging San Diego, meant the Broncos (6-4 ATS) relinquished first place. Denver is 5-13 ATS after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.

Kyle Orton’s cool and collected presence has given way to injury and ineffectiveness. Hurt in the loss to Washington two weeks ago, Orton was dragged back into the huddle last week after backup Chris Simms turned in three ineffective series and led several trips into the Chargers red zone that came up empty.

The rushing attack has also suffered during the losing skid (82 yards per game), and the tandem of Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter has only three rushing touchdowns between them. Though wideout Brandon Marshall continues to have a solid season with 52 catches for 628 yards and six scores, his verbal confrontation on the sideline with Moreno after he suffered goal line fumble, spoke of the frustration this Denver team is experiencing. The Broncos could fall out of the AFC West race fast if they don't pick up a win soon and they are 2-12 ATS after one or more consecutive losses against the spread.

Bookmaker.com has the Giants as sizable seven-point road favorites, with total of 42. The oddsmakers have ample reasons to prefer New York in this spot since they are 9-1 AT in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second part if the year over the last three seasons. In addition, they are 8-0 ATS in a road conflicts when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.

Even with last week’s loss, Denver is still 8-3-1 ATS as home underdog and have played UNDER in all five home games in 2009.

This will be the usual 8:20 Eastern start for Thursday night football on the NFL Network, with the Giants 10-0 UNDER as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and the Broncos 12-3 OVER after having lost four out of their last five games.

3DW Line – Giants by 3.5

Steve Makinen of the Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly made contributions to this article.

Thanksgiving and other Thursday NFL Trends

Let’s stop all this talk about changing out Detroit and Dallas on Thanksgiving to allow other teams to play. The Lions have been bad for years, so what, we still watch at least a good portion of the game and would it kill you to talk to a family member if the game isn’t a classic. We have three games to choose from during the course of the day, let’s just enjoy what we have.

• If both teams played at home last week, the home underdog is 2-9 ATS and 9-2 OVER. (Detroit and Denver)
• If both teams played at home last week, the home favorite is 10-4-1 ATS. (Dallas)
• If both teams were favorites in last contest, the home team 7-12-2 ATS (Detroit)
• If the home team was favored last week and the visitor was an underdog, the home team is 11-0 ATS. (Dallas)
• If the home team was an underdog in last game and the visiting team was a favorite, the home club is 1-8 ATS and 5-1 UNDER. (Denver)
• If the home town team is off a SU loss and the visitor is off a SU win, the road team is 7-1 ATS and 8-3 UNDER. (New York Giants)
• If the road team is off two wins, they are 10-3 ATS. (Green Bay)
• Road teams that were underdogs last week are 5-22 ATS. (Oakland)
• Home favorites of seven or more 7-1 UNDER. (Dallas)
• Home teams that were favored by six or more points in last contest are 12-3-1 ATS. (Dallas)
• Home teams of a SU win are 9-4-1 ATS and 22-13-1 OVER (Detroit and Dallas)
• Home teams off a SU loss are 4-8 ATS. (Denver)
• Home teams after scoring 28 or more points are 8-1 ATS and 12-4-1 OVER. (Detroit)
• In the last six years, home favorites are 18-8-1 ATS, including 8-1 ATS if favored by a touchdown or more. (Dallas)
• Away favorites are 9-0 ATS since 2004. (Green Bay and New York Giants)

Additional angles to think about.

• Take the OVER on turkey consumption.
• Play the OVER on one person having too much to drink.
• Take the OVER on at least 20 percent of those in attendance taking a nap.
• Play the OVER on potatoes consumed.
• Take the OVER on eyes rolled, snickers and laughter.
• Take the UNDER on cranberries eaten.
• Take the OVER on pumpkin pie and desserts.

NFL teams in need of bounce back in Week 11

Last week saw a number of professionals football teams lose or play poorly. The New England Patriots are the case study for this week, having to overcome an excruciating loss and arguably coach’s miscalculation. Coaches Rex Ryan and Josh McDaniels have gone from looking like the next Vince Lombardi to Rich Kotite in just weeks, as their teams seek a win. Atlanta’s season is going the wrong direction and the Giants have not won Oct.11. Dallas went from being to team on the move in the NFC to almost being shutout, how will they respond against division foe. The Colts and Ravens were beatable last week, and go head to head trying to get back in groove of playing best football.

Indianapolis at Baltimore 1:00E CBS

After rallying to top the Patriots Sunday night, Indianapolis’ perfect record is still intact, having now set its sights on home field advantage in the playoffs. The Colts (9-0, 5-4 ATS) begin a two-game road trip in Baltimore, looking to extend a 7-1-1 ATS stretch on the road. The average score in this season’s four wins has been 32.7-12.0. Baltimore (5-4, 6-3 ATS) comes in off the Monday night game in Cleveland, and is riding a stretch of 10-3 ATS in its previous 13 as hosts. Only three of those games were as the home underdog however, and the Ravens are 2-1 SU and ATS in those. The Colts have won six straight games in this series, including three over the last two seasons, and are 5-1 ATS in that span. Indy has scored 26 points per game on the vaunted Ravens’ defense in those contests.

Keys to the Game-

This isn’t the same Baltimore defense from earlier in the decade and Peyton Manning has stayed away from trouble and picked the Ravens apart. Nobody ever runs really well on Baltimore’s defense, as noted by 3.5 yards per carry (3rd), however using Joseph Addai to keep the Ravens off-balance in the run and passing game opens up other possibilities. Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win and no-cover as a favorite and will look to stop Ravens run game and make Joe Flacco a pocket passer, whose been sacked 20 times.

The Ravens will be without LB Terrell Suggs, which means DC Greg Mattison has to be innovative to create doubt or hesitation in Manning’s mind. The blueprint has been out there, run the ball on the Colts and take advantage of all scoring opportunities to limit the Indianapolis offense. With three distinctly different running backs, find the one that troubles the Colts defense the most. The Birds are 12-2 ATS after allowing 100 or less passing yards in their last game and have to bracket TE Dallas Clark, taking away one of Manning’s favorite targets.

3DW Line – Indianapolis by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Indianapolis -2, 44

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants 1:00E FOX

New York (5-4 SU&ATS) has had two weeks to sit and dwell on what has become a four-game losing streak, and another setback against Atlanta in Week 11 would mark the longest skid since 2004, Tom Coughlin’s first year with the team. It would also mark the fifth straight home loss to the Falcons, both SU and ATS. The Giants are still in the hunt in the NFC East, owning a win over the division leading Cowboys already, but are facing a schedule which features five out of seven games against bonafide playoff contenders. They are just 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS coming out of the bye week under Coughlin. Atlanta (5-4, 6-3 ATS) plays its second straight road game after losing at Carolina, before heading home for its next three contests. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS as underdogs in November vs. opponent off back-to-back losses.

Keys to the Game-

Atlanta knew coming into the season they had a few defensive deficiencies, but they would have never guessed they would be ranked 25th against the run and 28th against the pass. This week they have to beat the Giants at the point of attack and disguise coverage’s to protect corners. With no Michael Turner, Jason Snelling and possibly Jerious Norwood have to be effective, especially for third down runs and in the red zone. The Falcons are 11-27 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game in the second half of season and need the Matty Ice from last season and earlier this campaign and not the one that has 10 interceptions in last five games.

With Atlanta’s poor run defense, the Giants should bludgeon the Birds for four quarters in a test of manhood, a Coughlin specialty. The New York run defense has been up and down and not having to face Turner, who was hitting his stride, should be a big help. The G-Men are 14-5 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons, in part because defensive line has been able to create constant pressure on the quarterback. This is imperative against Atlanta with a weakened secondary.

3DW Line – Giants by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – Giants -7, 46

Washington at Dallas 1:00E FOX

Dallas (6-3, 5-4 ATS) returns home after a two-game road trip with the NFC East Division lead in hand and getting ready to face Washington and Oakland, a pair of teams that have combined for five wins in 2009. Dallas is 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS when hosting Washington since 1992, but overall the series has been dominated by underdogs, 14-9 SU and 18-5 ATS in the last 23 meetings. The Cowboys have struggled to cover in the heavy favorite role under Wade Phillips, despite sparkling 8-0 SU record as double-digit chalk, they are just 3-5 ATS. They are also just 7-15 ATS in previous divisional games, including 3-8 ATS at home. Dallas is 6-3 ATS after losing in Green Bay. The Redskins (2-7 ATS) are 3-6 after upsetting Denver at home last Sunday, and have covered the Vegas number in just three of their last 17 games overall.

Keys to the Game-

This is a winnable game if Washington plays intelligently. On defense, they are among the best in winning first down and have to maintain that edge, forcing Dallas to throw. In passing situations, bombard the Cowboys tackles, with Mark Colombo out and Flozell Adams looking like he could be timed with hour glass in pass drop-backs last week. The Washington secondary can’t suckered into being out of position by double moves and pump fakes. The Skins are 9-1 ATS vs. passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game after the midpoint of the season. On offense, keep honest down and distances like they did last week and Jason Campbell has to throw with same confidence and readiness as he showed when pressured by the Broncos.

Coach Wade Phillips receives plenty of heat; however he didn’t pick the offensive coordinator and Jason Garrett has run the Dallas offense like he has the Patriots team of 2007, as the running backs have taken 30 handoffs in last two contests. Dallas is second to Tennessee in yards per carry at 5.1, run the ball! The fact is Tony Romo is a far more effective quarterback with a running game and the passing game opens up for the Boys when they commit. Santana Moss could be headed to the Hall of Fame if he played against everyone else like he does against Dallas. The Cowboys move to 10-1 ATS after a double digit loss if they put the clamps in Moss.

3DW Line – Dallas by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -11, 41.5

N.Y. Jets at New England 4:15E CBS

The budding rivalry between the Jets and Patriots picked up some intensity in Week 2 when New York won at home. This time around, it’s New England (6-3, 5-4 ATS) that gets to play the role as host. The light switch might have gone on for the Patriots in that 16-9 loss, as since that point, they’ve gone on a tear, 5-2 SU & ATS while scoring 33 points per game. Still, it will be interesting to see their reaction after the meltdown loss to the Colts. New England will be looking to stem the tide of 3-9 ATS record at home when hosting the Jets. As a divisional host, Belichick’s team is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as well. The Jets (4-5 ATS) are 4-5 after losing to Jacksonville, and three of their losses have come in divisional play. Dating back to mid-’07, New York is 5-1 ATS on the road vs. AFC East rivals.

Keys to the Game –

Mark Sanchez has regressed at various points this season and won’t see the same vanilla defense he faced the last time he saw the Patriots uniforms. The old adage of players needing to make plays falls directly into Sanchez’s lap. The Jets are 16-7-1 ATS as division away dogs and have to attempt to win the battle of field position, be it by special teams or forcing turnovers. Wes Welker missed the first matchup, he must be contained or the schwarmerei about the Jets will continue.

Laurence Maroney's fumble near the goal line was important play last week and he played little after the miscue. The New England running game wasn’t the same afterwards, which helped fuel the Colts comeback. Maroney or some Patriots running back has to carry the pigskin and allow them to control the line of scrimmage. Welker is so important to New England’s passing game, since he opens up the other levels. If the former Texas Tech star has eight or more catches, Pats cruise. No matter what has been said, the Patriots defense has been slighted by their head coach. It’s up to the players and defensive coaches to rebuild confidence and make stops, preferably three and outs, which bring back the mojo. New England is 26-10 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent

3DW Line – New England by 13.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New England -10.5, 45

San Diego at Denver 4:15E CBS

For the second straight season, San Diego (6-3, 4-5 ATS) let Denver (6-3 SU&ATS) out to a comfortable lead in the AFC West Division. Once again, the Chargers have reeled the Broncos back in, and have pulled even as the teams prepare to meet on Sunday. Denver owns a head-to-head victory in San Diego already, so another victory could go a long way to clinching a first division crown since 2005. Of late though, it is the Chargers who have been playing well in their trips to Mile High, having covered three straight while posting 2-1 record. If you recall last year’s meeting, the Broncos prevailed in a one-point game gift wrapped by referee Ed Hochuli’s botched fumble call. That game will surely be reflected on this week, as will Denver’s 1-8 ATS record at home vs. AFC West foes since 2006. The straight up is 21-1-4 against the spread.

Keys to the Game-

It appears Chris Simms will get the start for Denver, who looked rustier than a 1974 Chevy Vega. Though coach McDaniels has assured the game plan won’t change with Simms, he’s going to have to be more accurate on passes 15 or more yards down the field to take advantage of his talented receivers and keep San Diego from crowding the line of scrimmage. The offense line has to start taking charge again. Denver averaged 132 yards rushing in six-game winning streak and 71yards per contest in last three losses. The offense has to start controlling the clock again with the defense wearing out. The Broncos are 4-13 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better and to reverse that trend they have to do what they did the first matchup, get to Phillip Rivers.

In the first game, San Diego lost the special teams battle with two Eddie Royal kick returns and the offensive line could not keep Rivers in vertical position. Both of these elements have to be addressed, especially against angry and desperate home team. The Chargers are 13-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons and the defense can’t get lazy. Last week against Eagles in their comeback and previous game with Denver, the secondary and linebackers took terrible angles in surrendering too many yards after the catch. If San Diego tackles effectively, they might be one first place all by themselves at the end of the day.

3DWLine – San Diego by 3.5
Diamond Sportsbook.com Line – San Diego -4, 44.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Wagering on Desperate NFL Teams

This week starts the second half of the season and already certain teams have games that could send their year one way or another. Currently, .500 teams Jacksonville and the Jets have seven teams ahead of them in the AFC, which means the loser of this contest could have dicey situation making the playoffs. Cincinnati is tied with Pittsburgh, but key injuries are mounting, an upset effort keeps mojo moving forward. Carolina played well at New Orleans, but a loss to Atlanta makes them 3-6, looking at 6-1 finish for playoff redemption. Both Philadelphia and San Diego are chasing division leaders and will want to keep pace, however somebody loses. Green Bay’s season starting to go the way of Richard Heene (Balloon Dad) and needs upset of Dallas to turn year around.

Jacksonville at New York Jets 1:00E CBS

The Jets last played two weeks ago and held the Dolphins to just 104 yards of total offense. That incredible defensive performance is little consolation to head coach Rex Ryan however, as his team lost 30-25, to fall back to 4-4. During the bye week, Ryan described his feeling as “sick” about the first half, figuring his team was better suited for 6-2. As a result, he gave his players six days off to rest up for this contest with Jacksonville. New York (4-4 ATS) has done well coming out of the bye, going 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in their last seven post-bye week games. They are also 12-1 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since 1997. However, the Jaguars (3-5 ATS) have the edge in the recent matchups, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. Coach Jack Del Rio’s team is also 4-4 after beating Kansas City.

Keys to the Game-

Jacksonville went back to 4-3 defense after Tennessee racked up 305 yards on the ground against 3-4 scheme. This becomes important now, since the Jets lead the NFL in rushing at 177.6 yards per game. This is huge key on the road, since that means Mark Sanchez would have to beat them with the pass. Sanchez has coughed up eight fumbles, thus applying pressure and getting him rattled is tantamount. The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS as underdog vs. opponent off a favorite loss and David Garrard has to make wise choices against talented New York secondary and cannot become incogitant.

Coach Ryan hopes the extra week helped clear Sanchez’s boggled brain and he returns as sharp as he started the year. The former USC star should benefit of not seeing extreme pressure, as the Jags are dead last in the NFL in sacks with eight. The defense’s top priority is containing Maurice Jones-Drew, who has more moves than a street dancer. Keep Mr. Hyphen in check and attack Garrard, who like Sanchez will leave the pigskin on the field. The Flyboys are 13-2 ATS at the Meadowlands off a home loss.

3DWLine – Jets by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Jets -7, 41

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 1:00E CBS

The AFC North race figures to be a slugfest the rest of the way, with all three top teams within striking distance of one another. The winners of the head-to-head battles figure to gain the upper hand. Prior to the first meeting of 2009 between these teams, the winner in this series was usually Pittsburgh (6-2, 5-3 ATS), who had gone 26-9 SU and 22-12 ATS vs. Cincy since 1992. The Bengals turned the tables though in Week 3, pulling out a 23-20 upset at home in the final minute as a three-point underdog. The Steelers will look to avenge that defeat and extend a 10-game home winning streak on Sunday. They are 7-3 ATS in that span, allowing just 14.1 points per game. The Bengals (6-2, 5-3 ATS) are off the home win over Baltimore, and boast 12-2 ATS record after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half under Marvin Lewis.

Keys to the Game-

Cincinnati lost receiver Chris Henry who was important cog in Bengals passing game. This places greater emphasis in RB Cedric Benson who is quickly becoming a complete back with ability to do everything. The Bengals are tied for seventh is sacks at 21 and the D-Line has to disrupt Ben Roethlisberger, while maintaining lane control so he doesn’t leave the pocket. It’s a misconception at the moment that the Steelers are punishing offense. Their passing game ranks 5th, with the running game a pedestrian 15th. Cincy should play Cover 3 defense and have secondary break on balls instead of outside man-up coverage. An upset allows Bengals time to find replacements for injured and gains what amounts to two-game lead in division. Cincy is on 7-0 ATS run as dog.

Pittsburgh has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 30 straight games including the playoffs, no reason to figure they’ll concede one in this spot. Lock up Benson and don’t let him matter in the passing game. The Steelers defense was not clicking in Week 3 defeat to Bengals, it is now. Attack Carson Palmer, who just lost short-crossing route companion Henry, make him look elsewhere, with potential miscues to follow. Pitt is 30-11 ATS playing against teams with .750 or higher win percentage and will want to establish Rashard Mendenhall, whose 5.7 yards per carry in last five games is second only to Titans Chris Johnson (6.7).

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 8.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Pittsburgh -7, 41.5

Atlanta at Carolina 1:00E FOX

With New Orleans running away from the rest of the NFC South, Atlanta and Carolina have had to readjust their goals for 2009. The Falcons (6-2 ATS) are still in the wild card picture at 5-3, but face a difficult two-game road swing starting with this matchup. Carolina is 3-5 after losing to the Saints, but has a second half schedule loaded with five home games. That may or may not be of benefit, as the Panthers (3-5 ATS) have yet to cover a spread at home, with 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS record. This will be Carolina’s first divisional home game of 2009, after going 3-0 ATS in that scenario a year ago. This will be a revenge spot for the Panthers and they are 20-8 ATS avenging a same season loss. Including 28-20 win in Week 2, Atlanta holds a 16-7 SU and 14-8-1 ATS edge vs. Carolina since 1998.

Keys to the Game-

This division conflict also matters to Atlanta a great deal, as with a win they are no worse than top NFC wild card team moving forward. Matt Ryan is in the first slump of his young career. He’s had two games passing under 175 yards in last three and the other one he completed less than 50 percent of attempts. His team needs him particularly on the division road. The Carolina running has found its stride the last several weeks and the Birds are 26th against the run. The defensive line has to create penetration, with linebackers staying clean to make tackles. RB Michael Turner has regained his form with 317 yards rushing in last two games. Keep him busy and the turf-playing Falcons fly to 15-6 ATS on real grass.

Coach John Fox, time to geek it up. It mattered when Jake Delhomme threw four picks against Philadelphia in opener. This team is in serious need of attitude adjustment. Playing conservative and losing is worse than going all out to get the ball to Steve Smith 10 or more times. The running game will be even more dangerous if Atlanta understands you will throw the ball down the field to Smith and others. On defense, run more games up front; force your players to give more (they can) and go after Falcons with passion, something missing all season. The Panthers 20-7 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, make it happen.

3DW Line – Atlanta by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Atlanta -1.5, 43.5

Philadelphia at San Diego 4:15E FOX

One week after getting help from San Diego, the Eagles face the Chargers, some 3000 miles across the country. Philadelphia (5-3 ATS) wasn’t able to fully capitalize on the Giants falling, losing to Dallas and surrendering the NFC East lead. Now, at 5-3, the schedule really turns on HC Andy Reid’s team, with four road games in the next five weeks, all against playoff contending teams. Fortunately, Philly is 33-15 ATS as a road underdog under Reid, and 30-17 ATS vs. good offensive teams gaining 350 yards per game or more. This will be Reid’s first ever trip to San Diego with the Eagles. The Chargers (3-5 ATS) are also 5-3 after last week’s one-point win in New York, and face another date with Denver following this tilt. Under Norv Turner, they are 3-6 ATS vs. the NFC, 2-2 SU and ATS at home.

Keys to the Game –

For coach Reid’s presumed genius on offense, he’s had a couple stinky showings this season. Last week, he earned F’s in trying to get the ball to his most threatening weapon DeSean Jackson, who had two catches for 29 yards. Run receiver screens, put him motion, just finds ways for Jackson to touch the ball, he’s a quick six waiting to happen. The San Diego run defense has improved the last month, however is still 26th overall. Test the middle with running game. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons, in part due to fast starts. This is a team with deficiencies in tight games (1-8-1 SU in their past 10 games decided by seven points or less, 1-9 ATS) and has to score early and keep adding.

It is not a coincidence that the improved health of Shawne Merriman has helped the defense. In their last four games, the San Diego defense has surrendered 144.5 yards per game via the pass (Oakland helped a great deal), best in the NFL, jumping them to fourth overall. That matter against Philadelphia since the Chargers are stellar at the corners and improving at safety and they have benefitted with increased pressure on opposing QB’s. This game is worth viewing just because the Eagles bring continual blitzes and Philip Rivers throws the deepest routes in the league. Who wins this battle could decide winner. Bolts feed on emotion and are 12-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins since 2007.

3DWLine – Philadelphia by 1.5
Bookmaker.com Line – San Diego -1, 47

Dallas at Green Bay 4:15E FOX

When Brett Favre was with the Packers, they struggled vs. the Cowboys in Dallas. At home though, it was a much different story. In fact, in the overall series, home teams owned a 9-0 SU and ATS edge from 1994 to 2007. Still, the home opportunities were few and far between for Green Bay. Now, with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the 4-4 SU and ATS Packers will be looking to avenge a loss when they host Dallas for the second straight year. The Cowboys (5-3 ATS) won the 2008 game, 27-16, manhandling the Packers defensive front for 217 yards rushing. They are atop the NFC East at 6-2 after winning at Philly. Green Bay is 2-4 vs. NFC East foes under Mike McCarthy, while the Cowboys are 3-19 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. Ten of the last 12 overall meetings between these teams went OVER the total.

Keys to the Game-

If Dallas can win first down on defense, they are on their way to seventh win of the season. The Green Bay offensive line can’t protect Rodgers and second year starter hangs on to the ball like it’s a good luck charm. The Green Bay run defense is ninth (91.1 YPG), but it is better when teams try to run wide. Pound away at the middle with Marion Barber, than work him and others outside. The Cowboys are 9-4 ATS as favorites and they will improve that record if they do better than .500 on possessions inside the red zone that leads to touchdowns and not field goals.

Barber is still recovering from quad injury and has lacked burst. Green Bay’s defense has to make him take a step east or west to reduce his effectiveness. Rodgers has to use his University of California education and start being smarter in releasing the ball quicker. The Dallas defense doesn’t like being on the field, throw underneath stuff to move the chains and utilize Ryan Grant in the one-cut and drive running game. The Pack is 10-1 ATS in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by six or more points per game in the second half of the season. They have two winnable games after this and will have extended rest before Monday home game against Baltimore. A win vs. Dallas could start three-game winning and who knows.

3DW Line – Dallas by 5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -3, 47.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.