Bring on Saturday!

It was a crazy night in baseball Friday and we ended up on the wrong side three times. We’ll look to immediately change that with our Best System that is 82.2 percent. The Top Trend is perfect 13-0 in a NL matchup and Steve of the LCC is hot and offers his top play. Good Luck

What I’m letting you know today – I never thought I would see Tiger Woods look like such a hack on the golf course. Having spent a good portion of my life in the business, I know the game will eventually humble everyone and it has a strong hold on Mr. Woods presently. Nonetheless, sad to watch.

The GUARANTEED Plays hit the big play on Philadelphia, but Houston couldn’t hold 5-2 lead in the ninth and I suffered yet another extra inning loss (8-23 on the season) for a 2-2 day. Today I’m pulling out all the stops and have FIVE BIG PLAYS in baseball for under $10 per selection which is Guaranteed to show a profit.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 like Houston, who are bad NL offensive team, scoring 4.1 or less runs a game, against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season. Read that again if you have to, but know this, 37-8 isn’t terrible.

Free Baseball Trend –2) The Phillies and Mets game isn’t on my radar; however hard to overlook Philly is 13-0 at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve is 6-0 the last two days and has Minnesota as his top Play for Saturday.

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Here comes the weekend plays

After one bad day, 3Daily Winners comes right back with 2-1 mark, lifting record to 133-74. This Friday we are on the hunt for more winners and begin with Sal’s Free Play. The Top Trend is a National Leaguer and the Best System is remarkable 87.7 percent! Good Luck

What I letting you know today – I believe ESPN is stretching its street cred by burying the LeBron James story. If you read the article, it doesn’t paint LBJ as some super hero, rather a guy in his mid-20’s, single, with his boys and having fun. Oh sure some words could be construed as crude, but put four or more guys in Vegas with a few drinks under their belt and what do you think would be said?

ESPN has chosen to make a non-interesting article a piece about their culture.

The GUARANTEED Plays are 4-2 the last three days and today we have a False Favorite in a 100 percent losing situation and National League road team that is up against a 20-4 situation. Grab one or both Guaranteed Winners today!

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like Toronto with a rested bullpen, having thrown two or less innings in each of the last two games, against opponent after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings. Holy Snikes, this system is 50-7, 87.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Arizona is 2-14 in road games after batting .250 or worse over a 20-game span this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Sal has hit a good stretch with 9-2 record and backs the Twinkies as his top selection.

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What would make Kansas City a good bet?

It’s been awhile since the Royals were a good team, not great, just average. The highlight of the last several seasons was a strong 18-8 finish in September of 2008, which led to 75-87 record and hope for the following season. That lasted just over a month (18-11 on May 7, 2009), before Kansas City took their rightful place in the cellar of the AL Central for the sixth time in seven years.

Will the Royals EVER be good again like the George Brett days or is this franchise doomed to be Pittsburgh of the American League?

It’s hard to find much good to say about K.C. given their more recent history. The last manager to have a winning record was Hal McRae at 286-277 from 1991 to 1994 before he was jettisoned. In his place has been a parade of eight skippers, including the last flavor Ned Yost, who was run out of Milwaukee in the heat of a pennant race in 2008.

From a wagering point of view, Kansas City isn’t all that bad at 42-57, -1.9 units. Nonetheless, they are only one of four American League teams with a losing home record in 2010 at 20-26 (-5.9 units).

Decked out in my general manager’s attire, the Royals do offer positives. Kauffman Stadium is an older park that stood the test of time beautifully and the renovations have been trumpeted throughout baseball.

The casual and even fairly serious baseball fan might not know Kansas City has and continues to lead the American League in batting with .280 average. Why than do the Royals rank 10th in runs scored (4.3) per game, no boppers. K.C. is 12th in home runs in the AL with 66, which means despite having 117 more base hits than Toronto on the season, they have touched home 37 fewer times than the Blue Jays, who lead the Major’s in long balls with 152.

A big blow to the franchise has been the lack of development of Alex Gordon. Once thought to be a cornerstone, Gordon has never really hit, been injury-prone and his third base defense has led to him being made into an outfielder. At 26, Gordon is no longer a prospect and needs to blossom immediately to hold any value.

Jose Guillen, Billy Butler and David DeJesus are all above average players; however they are complementary types, not building blocks towards division contention.

The overly sensitive Kansas City front office (how dare anyone criticize us, it takes time to rebuild) likes its minor league studs like third base prospect Mike Moustakas, first baseman Eric Hosmer and catcher Wil Myers, yet none are really thought to be ready at least until 2012 for full-time duty.

Personally, I believe it would be a huge mistake to trade Zack Grienke (6-10, 4.01 ERA) since every team, no matter how bad they might be, has to have a pitcher the rest of the players trust in which they truly believe they have a significant chance to win every five days. The rest of the of the starting staff looks very much like a collection of No. 4 or No. 5, which makes winning at best a 50-50 bet , particularly with second-rate relievers beyond closer Joakim Soria (0-2, 2.25, 27 saves).

Last night Kansas City was beaten into submission, losing 19-1 to Minnesota and the task for this evening doesn’t get a whole lot easier facing Carl Pavano (12-6, 3.26 ERA). The right-hander is 7-0 with a 2.40 ERA in nine starts and the former fragile Yankee hurler has four complete games in last seven outings (including previous two). Pavano has been in the AL Central the last two years and he is 22-10 against division opponents over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The Royals are +140 underdogs at online sportsbooks and ridiculously bad 48-108 against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better. K.C. has lost eight of last 10 as dogs and is 1-7 versus right-hand pitchers. Bruce Chen (5-4, 4.38) tries to avoid a third straight loss taking the ball for his club, but is 1-6 as a Game 2 starter.

Kansas City might have great eating barbeque joints and the future of the Royals might be bright, yet the present is dimmer than a two year old energy saving light bulb.

3Daily Winners Line Moves

The weekend is almost here and so are additional sports betting opportunities. Baseball bettors today have returned to a couple of the same matchups as yesterday as well as placing bets on what they see as winnable wagers. Let’s delve into what they are doing.

Minnesota at Baltimore 7:05 EDT

Enough sports bettors yesterday believed they had reasonable value on Baltimore and changed the odds on the Orioles as underdogs. Baltimore was shutout 5-0 and the focus has in turn changed to totals. This matchup started today at 9 and has been bumped up to 9.5.The reasons are plentiful with Jeremy Guthrie (3-10, 4.58 ERA) mostly ineffective and 9-29 in night games the last two seasons. (O’s Record) Minnesota has finally taken Nick Blackburn out of the rotation and replaced with Steve Duensing (3-1, 1.67), who has made 39 relief appearances this year. Duensing went 5-1 with a 2.73 ERA in nine starts as a rookie in 2009 and it is forecasted he will be held to a pitch count of 60-80. The Twins have pitched well lately with its spotty offense and are 15-4 UNDER in road games after three or more consecutive Under’s, while Guthrie’s is 19-8 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5. The action might be moving the wrong direction.

Atlanta at Florida 7:05 EDT

The Marlins were a -119 money line favorite on the overnight line and have dropped precipitously to a short fave or even an underdog at some locations. Florida sends rookie Alex Sanabia (1-1, 2.12) to stride the rubber and he’s been sharp in a couple of outings for team that is 12-3 after batting .250 or worse over a 20-game span. Atlanta has a built a seven-game lead in the NL East, thanks to their stellar play at home. They will look to continue to improve on the road (22-26) and are 23-9 as visitors vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season. Derek Lowe (10-8, 4.39) needs more run support not being the same ground-ball pitcher of years past, yet he and the Braves are 8-0 away from home against clubs that strike out seven or more times after playing half their schedule. Watch this line closely as the Fish are 0-10 as a home underdog of +100 to +125.

Cincinnati at Houston 8:05 EDT

The Reds Travis Wood (0-1, 2.02) has pitched well enough in his three starts to at least pick up a couple of victories, unfortunately for him; he’s been on the wrong side of a pair of 1-0 shutouts. Wood will seek elusive first “W” without the support of those betting on sports. Cincinnati was a -170 ML pick and has toppled to -150 or less. The Reds have matched up well against impatient teams like Houston and are 6-0 in visiting uniforms vs. opposing squads’ hitters who draw three walks or less a contest. With Astros starter Bud Norris 0-4, with 7.36 ERA at “Juice” Park and Cincy 13-3 facing NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs a game, the lower ML offers greater value.

San Francisco at Arizona 7:05 EDT

Matt Cain blanked the Snakes 3-0 last night, lowering the team ERA to 2.80 in previous 17 outings (San Fran 13-4). Giants’ starter Jonathan Sanchez (7-6, 3.42) will attempt to keep pace with pitching brethren having shown glimpses of dominance lately, yet still far too inconsistent. The lefty’s up and down efforts concern sports bettors, moving San Francisco from -124 on the ML to -110 or less. Arizona’s Edwin Jackson isn’t exactly Mr. Stability, with 1-2 mark and a 7.16 ERA in three outings since his no-hitter. The D-Backs are 2-11 revenging four or more straight losses versus opponent, while Sanchez and the Giants are beleaguered 1-12 in road battles after a triumph since last season.

Chic. White Sox at Oakland 10:05 EDT

The Oakland A’s are playing their best baseball of the season having won seven of eight and moving ever closer to second place Los Angeles. The A’s are averaging almost 10 hits per game in this stretch and are 10-1 after scoring five or runs like they did against Boston in 6-4 triumph Wednesday. Terrific Trevor Cahill (9-3, 3.19) is the Oakland starter and he is 5-1 at home and the A’s are 12-4 in all his starts. The Athletics began as -124 ML play and have been bet down to -110 or lower, which is surprising. The A’s hitters have solved Mark Buehrle (8-8, 4.18) almost his entire career, with the lefty just 3-12 against Oakland. The Pale Hose and Buehrle are 4-14 in his last 18 starts against winning teams, making this look like the wagering public is backing the wrong side.

3DW Bonus Info

Money Line Nugget
Tampa Bay has lost 17 in a row at Cleveland.

Totals Nugget
Kansas City is 17-3 OVER vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game this season; with average total score 11.4 RPG.

Run Line Nugget
Pittsburgh is 9-26 (-26.1 Units) against the run line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last two years, losing by 2.5 RPG.

A Monday with a tale of a broken heart

Our first losing day in some time on Sunday, still leaves us with impressive 115-61 record. Today we have two Top Trends from the same NL contest. The Best System is at 81 percent and the Free play is from a hot baseball bettor. Good Luck

What I noticed yesterday – I’ve been bothered all year with extra inning losses, 6-16 for the season, accounting for almost 15 units lost. However, as bad as that is, yesterday’s White Sox loss was the toughest of the season. Chicago held a 6-3 and closer Bobby Jenks was 20-0 in save situations. He went to the mound as defenseless as a Democrat at a Tea Party rally and he and another Sox pitcher gave up four runs in the bottom of the ninth at Minnesota and never registered an out. A very difficult defeat.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like Cleveland, an AL team with .260 or less BA, against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's a start. Since 1997, 81-19, 81 percent.

Free Baseball Trends -2) Washington is 2-15 in road games revenging a one run loss to opponent and Cincinnati is 9-1 at home games after a loss by two runs or less this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve of the LCC is 12-5 in last 17 MLB bets and has Detroit breaking out of slump.

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American League teams needing quick starts

The second half of the Major League Baseball season is about to begin and three games are on tap in the junior circuit for participants in sports betting. Two contests feature playoff contenders who are looking to begin the second half with a win, to set the right tone for the rest of the season, hopefully to keep building momentum from this point.

Rangers and Red Sox rumble

Boston (51-37, +3.9 units) actually has a better record than Texas (50-38, -1.8), but is in third place in the AL East behind New York and Tampa Bay, while the Rangers have the largest lead (4.5 games) among the six division leaders.

Both clubs have been slumping and are in need of a fast start to rebuild momentum. Boston has lost five of last seven games, falling behind the Rays in the standings as all their injuries apparently have caught up with them. Seven important players on are the disabled list and that includes All-Stars Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez and Clay Buchholz.

“I know it’s not perfect, I recognize that, but the level of intensity and trying to do the right thing has been off the charts,” manager Terry Francona told the Red Sox’s official website. “It’s been a challenge, but one that I think we’ve all kind of enjoyed. … Our job is to win with what we have.”

The Red Sox have not enjoyed much success versus quality clubs the last two seasons with a 5-19 record against teams with a win percentage of 54 to 62 percent in the second half of the season.

Texas starts this four game series with its confidence more shaken than Mel Gibson, having lost a four game series at home to Baltimore of all teams. The Rangers base paths looked like Dallas at rush hour in failing to beat the Orioles once, leaving a total of 37 runners on base in being swept. Those losses left the Rangers 6-15 against AL East opponents this season.

Texas opened as an underdog at online sports betting outlets, but were quickly turned around to a favorite with Tommy Hunter (5-0, 2.34 ERA) facing Tim Wakefield (3-7, 5.22). Hunter has had seven quality starts in eight outings, but was torched for nine runs in 1 2/3 innings in only Fenway Park start. The Rangers are 3-8 this month.

Boston won final game in Toronto 3-2 and is 18-2 in home games after scoring and allowing three runs or less over the last two seasons. Wakefield will especially careful with Vladimir Guerrero who is hitting .434 against him (10 for 23 with five homers). The BoSox have had little to fear from the Rangers, being winners in 11 of previous 14 in Bean Town.

Scalding Sox try to avoid Minnesota mishaps

During the All-Star telecast, FOX analyst Tim McCarver talked about asking Chicago’s Paul Konerko if he had ever played on a team that was as hot as the White Sox (25-5 since June 9) and the first basemen’s answer was direct and to the point, “Never”.

Chicago’s current eight-game winning streak and torrid play had them blasting by Minnesota (46-42, -3.4) and Detroit to the top rung in the AL Central.

The Pale Hose trailed Minnesota by 9.5 games when this scintillating streak first started and even the manager of Chicago is trying to come to grips with the situation. “I think it is a shock just because the way the team was playing, how many games we were out of first place. It’s a shock how quick we did it,” skipper Ozzie Guillen said. Chicago is 11-2 after four or more consecutive wins this season.

The White Sox (49-38, +9) make a second trip this season to Target Field with hopes of drowning past failures in the land of 10,000 lakes.

Playing in the Twin Cities is not listed as a favorite spot by the White Sox, having lost 16 of last 20; however except for 1-1 this year, the rest of the damage was done at the old Metrodome, where seemingly everything went wrong.

John Danks (8-7, 3.29) hasn’t received a great deal of run support despite being effective and he and Chicago are 19-10 on the road (1-6 lifetime at Minnesota) since 2008.

The Twins are 47-19 at home against left-handed starters the last three seasons and hand the ball to Kevin Slowey (8-5, 4.64), trying to turnaround season that has gone south with 6-13 record of late. Slowey and the Twinkies are smallish -115 money line home favorites for those betting on sports and are 14-2 in home games after he walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings over the last three seasons.

Pounding out Friday Winners

Our 99-56 record with our plays here at 3Daily Winners is pretty damn good, but Ron of the Left Coast Connection is one sick dude with his baseball run. Check out his Free Play below. The Top Trend is in the Big Apple at 90 percent and the Best System is a sweet 80 percent over extended period. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – With each passing day, I’m certain the “N” in ESPN stands for narcissistic.

Did you see this? http://www.newseum.org/todaysfrontpages/hr.asp?fpVname=OH_CPD&ref_pge=lst

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 like the Brew Crew, with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season vs. opposing pitcher who walked five or more hitters last outing. This fairly rare system is 32-8 the past 13 years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Metropolitans are 9-1 in home games after scoring two runs or less this season, winning by 3.5 runs per outing.

Free Baseball Pick -3) He’s become Ron(do)–matic with three more winners last night to give him incredible 47-11 record on the base paths. Ron still has plenty in the tank and believes Jason Verlander and Detroit will have the Twins seeing double.

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MLB Series Wagering - Twins at Tigers

For the large majority of the season, Minnesota has been the best team in the American League Central, however they have been knocked off that lofty perch like a bunch of Russian spies, having lost to 11 of 16 and passed by Detroit and Chicago. Where have the Twins (45-40, -2.5 units) gone wrong, it’s simple, but it gets complicated. Minnesota is 19-10 (+4.4) in AL Central games, yet is 19-23 on the road. The Twins can still return to the top of the heap by winning division tilts; however they still have to play 40 more road contests, which will necessitate better results to climb up that ladder.

Detroit (46-37, +7.9) has jumped to the front of line, being winners of seven of last 10, thanks to flexing muscles with the heavy lumber. The Tigers have average 5.9 runs per contest in this stretch and reached double digit hits eight times, including last six outings. The always dangerous Miguel Cabrera is hotter than Jennifer Aniston in Smart Water ads, sporting a 16-game hitting streak. In his last dozen games, Cabrera is batting scorching .467, with nine extra base hits among his 21 base knocks and 13 RBI’s. “I’m looking forward to Friday,” said Cabrera. No kidding the way is swinging the bat.

The Twins trail the Tigers by two games in the standings and the opener sets up as good pitching matchup. Francisco Liriano (6-6, 3.32 ERA) gives it a go against Detroit, who is 15-9 this season against left-handed starters. Liriano however is 4-2 (3.49) lifetime vs. the Tigers and the Twinkies are tough on Friday nights with 27-12 record since last year.

Detroit ace Jason Verlander (10-5, 3.85) will toe the rubber for his club and is a -127 money line favorite at many online sports betting outlets. Verlander is just 5-7 (4.03) against Minnesota, nevertheless is 34-14 when playing on real grass (Tigers record). Detroit is 28-12 at home vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season.

Game 1 Edge: Detroit

The biggest reason for the Tigers leapfrogging to division leadership is their play at Comerica Park. Detroit is an American League best 30-12 on home turf (MLB finest +15.9 units to start the weekend), batting .287 as a team with an on-base percentage of .354. Their play of late has been even more impressive, having won 15 of previous 17 in MoTown.

Manager Jim Leyland hands the ball to Jeremy Bonderman (4-6, 4.81), who after making seven of eight quality starts didn’t have much to show for it (2-3 record). He’s been racked in last three outings (25 hits and15 runs in 16 1/3 innings), with his slider not having usual bite and been hanging too many pitches. The Tigers have dropped last five contests at home when Bonderman faces winning club.

Minnesota will hope Justin Morneau can go for this battle if not the opener after suffering a mild concussion (loose term unless you suffered one) when he was accidentally kneed in the head Wednesday night. Morneau starts the series tied for second in hitting in the AL with .345 average and has 18 home runs along with 56 RBI’s.

For this Fox 4:10 Eastern conflict, Nick Blackburn (7-6, 6.00) will be Minny’s middle game starter. Blackburn is in danger of falling out of the rotation, allowing four or more earned runs in six of last seven starts, leading to capacious ERA of 9.28. That figure is actually lower than his 9.40 earned run average in road starts and Minnesota is languid 3-15 in Blackburn’s pitching attempts in road uniform.

Game 2 Edge: Detroit

Like Saturday, the last contest before the All-Star break will be a day game. This is an area Detroit has flourished with 22-13 record compared to Minnesota’s 14-17 mark.

Earlier this week skipper Ron Gardenhire flipped-flopped starting pitchers Carl Pavano and Kevin Slowey to give Pavano (9-6, 3.58), the club’s most consistent starter, one more outing before the break. The Twins right-hander pitches to contact, but doesn’t get into a great deal of trouble by limiting walks. Minny could likely use a strong outing from Pavano since they are 20-39 in road games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last three seasons.
Detroit will go with 22-year old Andrew Oliver (0-2, 5.93) who is making just his fourth big league start and second versus the Twins. The lefty throws a late moving mid-90’s fastball and if can be more consistent around the plate with slider and change, could develop into a top quality starter.

Game 3 Edge: Minnesota

Both teams feature excellent bullpens, which suggest how the starters perform, will likely determine the series. Detroit has opening game edge and Minnesota in the closer. That leaves the middle encounter as possible decider. The Tigers are playing solid baseball, with tremendous home record and 27-20 mark in games decided by three or less runs. Though the Twins have taken six of first nine meetings in 2010, Detroit looks like the best series wager.

Sportsbooks series odds: Minnesota +110, Detroit -140

3Daily Winners Pick: Detroit

Tuesday's Top Info

I’ll put down a 0-2 record, though the system play winner could have qualified based on recent years being over 80 percent. We’re still 83-45 and Ken looks to continue his simmering ways with M and M matchup in the Midwest sponsored by Sesame Street. The Top Trend follows what the Pirates do after a low scoring affair and the Best System is of the run line variety, but a non-qualifier, at 78.3 percent. Good Luck

Going to Yankees and Snakes game tonight, should be fun with full house.

What I saw yesterday – I played Oakland last night and the Cincinnati Reds hit a trio of home runs in the tenth inning Monday night to give me a loser. The last time any major league team hit three home runs in one extra inning was the Royals, who hit three in the 11th inning against Detroit on September 29, 2006. (Thanks Elias Sports Bureau)

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all teams like Toronto against a run line (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160), batting .240 or worse over their last 20 games, with a with a hot starting pitcher with a WHIP 1.100 or less over his last 10 games. This run line system is 36-10, 78.3 percent since 2006.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Pittsburgh is 1-15 in road games after one or more consecutive Unders this season, losing by gargantuan 3.4 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ken of the LCC is +10.7 units since last week and backs the Twins in Brew Town.

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Baseball Systems that round the bases

On this Tuesday in baseball, believe it or not there are other baseball games as or possibly even more important than Pittsburgh at Washington. While you can still buy a ticket to Roy Halladay’s perfect game in Florida (at full price no less, go Marlins), there are four baseball systems (plus a bonus play) in place tonight for the online sports betting fan which could add to cash to wagering account.

Florida at Philadelphia 7:05E

Another lesser known rookie will be making his debut, as power hitter Mike Stanton will be in the Marlins batting order. The 20-year-old outfielder has been tearing it up Double-A Jacksonville (hitting .311 with 21 homers and 52 RBIs in 52 games) and his first big league at bat will be against Kyle Kendrick (3-2, 4.62 ERA) who has found a groove and is 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA in his last six outings.

Philadelphia (30-26, -6.4 units) still isn’t hitting the baseball, averaging two runs per contest in last 13 outings, however their fielding has been impeccable, with no errors in last five games. The Phillies are -138 money line choice and favorites with a ML of -125 to -175, after three straight games where they committed no errors, starting a pitcher whose given up one or less earned runs in his last two outings are 65-19 since 2006. (Note: The San Francisco Giants and Matt Cain also fit this system)

Toronto at Tampa Bay 7:10E

The Rays are seventh in the American League in home runs, but still manufacture runs well enough to be third in baseball at 5.2 per game. Tampa Bay (37-20, +6.5) won on Sunday 9-5 in Texas to salvage a .500 road trip and send Jeff Niemann (5-0, 2.79) up against Toronto’s (33-25, +12) power laden lineup.

The Blue Jays lead the Major’s in home runs yet only bat .245 as a team and Niemann and the Rays are 8-0 vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. Tampa Bay is a -195 ML pick and home favorites with a ML of -175 to -250, averaging 0.9 or less dingers a game on the season, after a win by four runs or more, are 27-4 the previous three years.

Kansas City at Minnesota 8:10E

Zack Grienke (1-7, 3.60) might be feeling the pressure of late with the lack of run support and trying to be too perfect. Last year’s Cy Young award winner has a 7.04 ERA in last three starts, allowing 24 hits in 15 1/3 innings. He’s received the lowest run support in the American League at 2.64 per start.

“The last month I haven’t really been myself, I guess,” said Greinke. “Everything looks tougher, like the hitters look better and the strike zone looks smaller. It just seems tougher out there at the moment.”

The Kansas City hurler will take on a Minnesota team (33-24, +3.2) scrambling for bodies with a number of injuries and not hitting the ball. With oddsmakers setting the total Un8, the play is UNDER when a ice cold hitting team is batting .200 or worse over their last five games, against opponent with a frigid starting pitcher, whose ERA is 7.00 or higher over his last three starts. In the last 13 years this system is 67-28 below the number.

St. Louis at L.A. Dodgers 10:10E

The Cardinals offense could be a Dateline mystery on NBC, ranking a pedestrian 14th overall at 4.6 runs per game. Manager Tony LaRussa gave the appearance at least that last night’s game was not particularly important using two pitchers Blake Hawksworth and P.J. Walters, in a 12-4 loss to Los Angeles (34-24, +3.6).

Evidently, LaRussa is focusing on the last two games of the series and has Chris Carpenter (7-1, 2.76) on one extra day rest taking on Dodgers starter Hiroki Kuroda (5-4, 3.63). Carpenter is 9-0 with a 2.42 ERA in his last 14 regular-season road starts; however has 5.21 ERA when pitching with five or more days rest.

Does it make it a wise to bet to back the underdog Dodgers at +115, since National League clubs scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a contest vs. a NL starter with an ERA of 3.70 or less, after allowing 10 runs or more, are 19-49?

Let's follow MLB Trendy Talk

Baseball like any sport is about how teams matchup. Often, little secrets emerge when two teams face off and they can be frequently found in baseball trends. Those participating in sports betting can grab an edge they might otherwise not have with a couple of key points about any given contest on a typical slate of 15 games. Take the time to peruse baseball’s top trends for tonight.

In the National League the Cincinnati Reds host Pittsburgh being tied with the St. Louis atop the Central Division. The Reds are a -170 money line favorite at sportsbooks and have feasted on rotten teams. Cincy is 12-2 playing against a bad club with 38-46 win percentage and is 11-2 if a NL team has an on-base percentage .315 or worse this season.

Philadelphia visits the New York Mets and is 10-2 on the road after seven or more consecutive home games the last three seasons. Tonight, the Phillies starter is Jamie Moyer and he and the Phils are 14-3 in road encounters against division opponents since 2008.

Atlanta heads to south Florida with the total at nine. This might be setting up as Under play since the Braves are 14-3 UNDER in road games when playing with a day off over the last three years and Florida starter Anibal Sanchez is 11-1 UNDER when the ML is +125 to -125.

The Houston at Milwaukee matchup is like picking your own poison. The Brewers are 4-14 at Miller Park and 2-7 as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Astros on the other hand are 15-29 and 7-21 coming of a loss. Houston will start Felipe Paulino who is 0-6 this year and he and the ‘Stros are 2-15 as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.

Over in the American League, two scuffling Central Division partners do battle in Cleveland. The Chicago White Sox are underachieving 19-25 and cannot formulate any momentum with 4-14 record after a win in 2010. The Indians have hitting and pitching woes are 4-17 after scoring four runs or less in five straight games since 2008. The Pale Hose are -132 ML favorites because of starter Jake Peavy.

Oakland has won three in a row and five of seven to climb back over .500 at 23-22 and has owned Baltimore with 13-2 mark. The A’s are -111 ML road faves behind Dallas “Mr. Perfect” Braden; however an inkling of doubt arises. The Athletics are feeble 0-13 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better.

Minnesota like a lot of AL clubs has problems with the New York Yankees. The Twins are 5-18 vs. New York and 4-7 at home the last couple of years. The simplest explanation is 16-32 record vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .345 or better. Minnesota will try to change their luck in new Target Field against the Bronx Bombers, but are 12-30 versus AL squads scoring 5.2 or more runs a game.

The Toronto Blue Jays continue to mash, leading baseball with 76 dingers and are 12-4 in road encounters when playing against a team with a losing record after last night’s impressive 6-0 white-washing of the L.A. Angels. The Halos are presently listed as a Pick with a great deal of line movement. This evening they give the ball to Ervin Santana who is 22-8 throwing at the Big A vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs game. (Team's Record)

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No Monday plays but great info

No great systems, trends or otherwise today, so we’ll let today go.

What I found today – Will this be the year the National League finally ends the American League’s six year reign of terror? Though just 42 of the 252 official interleague games have been played in 2010, the numbers are evenly divided at 21-21.

Some of the usual suspects performed up to their high standards (see article below), as Boston and Minnesota both won series over the National League. However, even traditionally dreadful clubs like San Diego and the Los Angeles Dodgers came thru and won two of three.

Get out the cell phone to take a picture of this.

Tampa Bay is the first team to get 20 games over .500 and they are the best bet in baseball at +13.3 units, think about that being possible after the 2007 season.

Next is two very unlikely candidates, San Diego (+10.1) and Washington (+10.1).

The Padres are still in first place in the NL West despite a batting order that does not raise the blood pressure of opposing pitchers, but they have pitching staff that leads the National League in ERA at 2.98. While some will say this is a by-product of playing at cavernous Petco Park, San Diego is 14-9 on the road and their ERA is third in the big leagues at 3.8.

Washington being over .500 at 23-22 at this stage of the season is remarkable for them. The reason the Nationals have been successful to this point is improved defense and pitching. Instead of ranking in the lower 25 percent of virtually every category, they are now average, which has them as more competitive club.

At the beginning of the year Seattle was considered a serious threat to knock the L.A. Angels off the throne as AL West champs. The question was why?

Last year Seattle was 85-77 after a hideous 61-101 2008 campaign. Because they lacked offensive firepower, the Mariners front office built the team around pitching and defensive in particular. The move paid off with surprising season.

In the offseason, Seattle added Chone Figgins trying to get another player on base for the middle of the lineup and thought Milton Bradley would find the Puget Sound a more calming area than Chicago. Seattle was 28th last season in runs scored and without changing the main part of the heart of the order, the M’s remain 28th in scoring at 3.5 runs per game, lacking any offensive punch.

With every team placing a greater emphasis on defense, the Mariners edge is negated and Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee can’t pitch shutouts on every start, which helps explain why Seattle is 16-28, -13.9 units.

Sharp sports bettors knew this before the season started. The 2009 Mariners were the 13th team since 1900 to post a winning record after losing 100 or more games. The very next year these teams have a .487 win percentage or roughly 79 wins. (From Bill James 2010 Gold Mine)

What does the home court mean in the NBA Playoffs?

Favored teams thus far in the postseason are 36-13, 31-17-1 ATS when playing in their own building.

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Swing Week starts the MLB action

This is the only week of the Major League baseball season that players truly hate. It’s referred to as “swing week” because every team will play 2 two-game series this week before the weekend. The purpose is to balance out the schedule since the two leagues have differing amount of teams, which forces uncommon numbers to make 162-game slate work out. This used to be done later in the year, but the clubs worked with the schedule-maker to get it out of the way sooner in the year.

In the National League, a couple of teams from the Keystone State will meet for a pair. Philadelphia (23-13, +5.1 units) returns home off a 4-1 road trip which included sweeping the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Phillies are 11-3 this month and four games clear in the NL East of competitors. The always potent Philly batting order is now the best in the National League at 5.6 runs per game, but improved all around pitching has lit this candle for them.

Pittsburgh at 16-21 (+4.9) isn’t terrible (at least not yet), nor are they particularly good. The Pirates problem is offense, ranked next to last in scoring at 3.5 runs per contest and 14th in home runs with 29 in the senior circuit.

Philadelphia is a -220 money line favorite having to face Charlie Morton (1-6, 9.19 ERA). Even with a couple of surprising wins at Wrigley Field the past three days, Pittsburgh is still 29-70 as a road underdog of +100 or higher.

As we head down the hill for May, having Atlanta and the New York Mets holding down the last two spots in the NL East is as surprising the Flyers and Canadiens in the East Finals in the NHL. The Mets (18-20, -3.6) fall is particularly appalling since they were in first place in the division not that long ago, however a 4-12 road record will do that to a team.

The Braves (18-19, -3.8) haven’t been very good on the road either, which is why they have to take advantage of this situation at Turner Field. Atlanta caught Milwaukee at the right time and swept them, took series over pitching-poor Arizona and host Mets who have lost five in a row. Thanks to Tim Hudson yesterday, the Braves are 17-4 with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less in last game and they are -144 ML home favorites tonight.

In the American League, Toronto (23-16, +10.5) prepares to face first place Minnesota. A great deal of verbile could be used to describe the Blue Jays in 2010. Toronto has won 11 of 14 after sweeping another club atop their division in Texas. The Jays lead the AL in home runs with 60, slugging percentage (.459) and total bases (612). They will face Kevin Slowey (4-3, 4.62 ERA) of the Twins and Toronto is 20-11 against right-hand pitchers, averaging 5.8 runs per contest.

The Twins (23-14, +4.5) finally ended their 12-game road losing streak against the Yankees in dramatic fashion with Jason Kubel’s grand slam home run off Mariano Rivera on Sunday. However, the Blue Jays are also tough on Minnesota with 11-3 mark the last couple of years. The Twinkies are -115 ML choice and are 12-2 when favored by -150 or less this season.

If the Rangers (20-18, -0.6) are feeling a little uneasy being in first place in the AL West it’s understandable. After being swept north of the border, they return to Rangers Ballpark and hear the unmistakable rumble of the Angels chasing them. With Texas having lost last three, Los Angeles (18-21, -4.2) won a trio at home over Oakland, bringing them back to within 2.5 games in the division.

Texas is back home where they are 13-7 this season. The Rangers mission for this two-game set is to get into L.A.’s redoubtable bullpen that carries 6.38 ERA (2.118 WHIP) away from home. The Rangers are 24-8 vs. a poor pen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse. The Angels finally got great pitching over the weekend in permitting three total runs to the A’s and had two shutouts.

“We’re only going to go as far as our starters are going to perform,” manager Mike Scioscia said. “If this weekend is any indication, hopefully we’re starting to make some strides forward.”

Inconsistent Scott Kazmir (2-3, 6.82) is the Halos starter and his club is a +140 ML underdog, yet is 14-3 after consecutive wins by four runs or more.

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Tuesday's Top MLB Systems

On this Tuesday in baseball, some series start and others continue, but opportunity is always present for the sports bettor. We unleash five MLB systems from five different contests, three on the sides and two totals for you to consider today. Take a few minutes to read over and see what catches your eye as potential wagering options.

Seattle at Baltimore 7:05E

The Mariners ended their disastrous 1-8 homestand with a win on Sunday and travel cross-country to the East Coast to begin an eight-game road excursion. After scoring 12 total runs and being shut-out three times, Seattle had rare outburst in 8-1 victory over division partner Los Angeles of Anaheim. The M’s are next to last in the American League in batting average and road teams with a batting average below .255, off a win by six or more runs are 41-15 UNDER in next outing.

Toronto at Boston 7:10E

The Blue Jays have been among baseball’s best surprises in 2010; however they haven’t been hard to figure for Boston. Toronto has lost all four games to the Red Sox in this new campaign, as Brandon Morrow was pathetic after his club had given him a 4-2 lead in the second inning last evening. Morrow allowed six runs in just 1 2/3 innings, walking six batters and permitting three hits. This placed quite a burden on the bullpen and Toronto lost 7-6.

Dana Eveland will try and break the spell Boston has had on Toronto, however despite 3-1 record and 3.82 ERA, Eveland has more walks than strikeouts in his 35+ innings (17 vs.16). The Blue Jays as +150 money line underdogs and teams with with a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per outing, after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings, are 10-56 the last five seasons.

Houston at St. Louis 8:15E

The Astros have set up camp at the bottom of the NL Central and are giving indications they might not be leaving any time soon. Houston is the only team in the National League that has yet to score 100 runs on the season (85 total runs = 2.7 RPG). And Houston certainly does have a problem with a power outage, sending only 13 baseballs over the fence with the league’s mean average at 30 dingers.

Newly acquired Bret Myers (1-2, 3.67 ERA) has been more than adequate and would have better record with improved run support. However the ‘Stros are +210 road underdogs and clubs averaging less a home run per contest with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better are merely 15-66 since 2006.

Chicago at Minnesota 8:10E

For years, the Metrodome was a “house of horrors” for the White Sox having lost 15 of last 18 at the indoor facility. Chicago is hoping a move outdoors will be a benefit for them and will have Freddy Garcia (5.38 ERA) on the mound after a game in which he did not give up a home run or walk a batter.

Minnesota is a -168 ML favorite and leads the AL Central and is second to Tampa Bay in ERA at 3.51. AL favorites of -150 or higher, allowing 4.7 or less runs a game against opponents starting pitcher, who did not walk a hitter in last outing are 87-26.

Los Angeles at Arizona 9:40E

The state of Arizona is under siege nationally for its new immigration law and the Diamondbacks bullpen is feeling similar pressure, not getting anyone out. Arizona’s pen has eye-popping ERA of 7.09, 4-8 record and five blown saves in 12 tries.

Tonight they turn to their ace Dan Haren (4-1, 1.224 WHIP) to end four-game losing streak and hope he give his usual seven or more strong innings to save the beleaguered bullpen. With the total a spot on nine, home teams with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the year, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games and with a posted total by oddsmakers of 9 or 9.5, are 33-8 UNDER. All systems from the Foxsheets.

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Baseball Systems that are a home run

It’s the first full week of May baseball action and on this Tuesday a number of high quality baseball systems standout. A number of underdogs are really up against solid situations that in the past have been very profitable by playing against them. Will this happen again, read on and make your own decisions.

Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees 7:05E

The Orioles swept Boston over the weekend, but reality came calling in the form of Yankee pinstripes, ending Baltimore’s brief euphoria. The O’s are 10th in the American League in batting at .246 and they will face A.J. Burnett (3-0, 2.43 ERA) as +220 money line underdogs. Here we find road underdogs of +150 or more, batting .260 or less against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) , with a starting hurler that gives up 0.5 or less home runs a start are unbecoming 18-84 since 1997.

N.Y. Mets at Cincinnati 7:10E

The Mets have lost three in a row after their eight game winning streak was snapped and are +130 road dogs in the Queen City. Other than last night, the starting pitchers have been roughed up forcing a top notch New York bullpen (2.60 ERA) to start piling up the innings. Surprisingly, underdogs with ML of +100 to +150, with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season, having worked three straight games throwing four or more innings, are 30-9.

L.A. Angels at Boston 7:10E

The Angels of Anaheim are having serious pitching problems. Among their 15 losses on the year, nine have been by four runs or more, including last night’s 17-8 pasting to the Red Sox, their fourth consecutive road loss. The Halos are +175 dogs and non-favorites being outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season after allowing 15 runs or more are alarming 7-39.

Detroit at Minnesota 8:10E

Joe Mauer might be out of the line-up, yet Minnesota keeps punching the ball around the yard and is second in the AL in batting average (.279) and third in runs scored at 5.4 per contest. In game two of their series with division rival Detroit, the Twins are -135 favorites and home chalk of -125 to -175, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games in May, are sharp 43-10 since 2006.

Colorado at San Diego 10:05E

The Rockies got a much needed win last night in San Diego. Colorado’s pitching staff has been ravaged by injuries. Though the bullpen has a fine 2.48 ERA, they are three of six in save opportunities.

Colorado acquired Greg Smith to be a left-handed starter and thus far his results are atrocious with 7.33 ERA. The Rockies have lost Smith’s last three outings since he has performed even worse with 9.53 ERA and bloated WHIP of 2.471.

Colorado might be catching +135 on the ML, however road underdogs of +100 to +150 with a bad bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities, using a nasty starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.250 or higher over his last three starts are 7-33, 17.5 percent the previous five seasons.

Baseball Series Wagering - Twins at Royals

The Minnesota Twins were picked to win the Central Division of the American League and they have gotten off to the kind of start that has propelled them right to the top with 11-5 record. The Twins just completed their first-ever homestand at Target Field with 6-3 record and head back on the road where they have begun the year 5-2.

Kansas City was not picked to win the division and is not considered to be a contender. Thus far the Royals have also played to form with 6-9 record. Don’t blame the offense; Kansas City is fourth in the AL in runs scored at 4.7. The culprit has been the relief pitching which has been atrocious with 6.95 ERA and five blown saves in less than three weeks.

These teams met last week in the Twin Cities with Minnesota winning the series and the Twins will look to go 5-0 in series to start 2010, as they embark on nine game road trip.

Minnesota has been spectacular as series starter with a 38-16 record playing on Friday’s over the last three seasons. They will give the ball to Carl Pavano (2-1, 4.96 ERA, 1.347 WHIP) who was roughed up for seven runs and 11 hits in 3 1/3 innings in last week’s 10-5 loss to the Royals, however he is 7-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last two seasons, thanks to run support of eight runs an outing. (Team's Record)

Kansas City is a +123 ML underdog with total Ov9.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com and will start Gil Meche (0-1). The right-hander has been completely ineffective as seen with 11.58 ERA and WHIP of 2.358.

“Two games in a row where I can’t get away from the big inning, both happening early in the ballgame,” Meche said. “You’ve got to make better pitches. … If you don’t do that, you’re going to pay for it.” The Royals are the complete opposite of their opponent with 7-21 mark on Friday’s.

Game 1 Edge: Minnesota

The Kansas City offense has clicked much better with the much-traveled and injured Scott Podsednik being in the lineup. Podsednik is batting robust .449 and has also taken eight walks in his 13 starts. He’s also been a base-running thief, stealing seven of eight in 2010.

"I don't think there's a coincidence at all," manager Trey Hillman said of Podsednik being out of the lineup in two losses to Toronto this week. "You take that speed [out] of the lineup and you take that kind of on-base percentage, the threat of stealing a base, it's important, just because of the pace that he's kept up to this point.”

The Royals begin the series 2-4 at Kauffman Stadium and are horrendous 16-37 at home since last year and hand the horsehide to Luke Hochevar (2-0, 2.89, 1.393). The 26-year old righty was not at his best against the Twins last Sunday, with five walks along with six hits in his six innings, but he pitched his way out of several jams and got the win.

The old baseball pitching edict of “throw strikes” is a big reason why the Twins have started so well. Coming into the weekend the pitching staff has yielded a Major League-low 37 bases on balls, which helps prevents big innings.

Minnesota has won their last 18 of 23 against teams with losing records and will start Nick Blackburn (1-1, 6.05, 1.499). The deliberate right-hander is off two shaky starts (10 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings) and has to do a better job locating pitches, being tagged for six home runs in fewer than 20 innings this season. Blackburn and the Twinkies are 7-19 in his roads starts.

Game 2 Edge: Kansas City

There was a great deal of concern about Minnesota bullpen once closer Joe Nathan went down. To this point those concerns are unwarranted with 2.62 ERA, six for six in save chances and better than 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. If Kevin Slowey (2-1, 2.45, 1.255) can pitch like his last outing, the pen will be well-rested. Slowey has an easy arm motion and excellent feel for how to pitch and threw eight innings of one run; five-hit ball with 9 K’s and no walks.

In the series finale, Kansas City counters with Brian Bannister (0-1, 4.59, 1.302) who commands a 90-ish fastball that has late movement and curveball that has big sweeping motion. He pitched fairly well in first two starts in allowing three runs over 12+ innings but bullpen turned those potential wins into no-decision defeats. Bannister was smacked around at Toronto, which he blamed on poor mental preparation.

Game 3 Edge: Minnesota

For this week’s series selection, we bring in Rocky Atkinson of RocketmanSports.com.

“I feel like Minnesota will win this series against Kansas City this weekend. Minnesota is 26-13 overall vs Kansas City the past 3 years including a very nice 14-4 at Kansas City. The key to this series is going to be the bullpens. Minnesota bullpen has a 2.62 ERA overall this year and a 1.45 ERA on the road this season. The Kansas City bullpen on the other hand, has been ripped this year with a 6.95 ERA overall and an 8.41 ERA at home on the season. Minnesota is third in runs scored and the Royals are dead last in the American League in runs allowed.”

3Daily Winners Pick: Minnesota

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Minnesota -155, Kansas City +125

Fire-up Friday

Had to miss yesterday working on the NBA, but have two plays in MLB action that are solid 76.9 percent, but below our standard. The Yankees are in our Top Trend, is it good or bad and the Left Coast Connection has a NHL play. Good Luck

What I thought today- After this week, I should know everything about NHL and NBA playoffs with all the studying I’ve put in. (That doesn’t guaranteed I’ll win money however.)

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Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all teams with a money line of -100 to -150 after two straight games where they stranded 10 or more runners on base, playing on Friday. This system is 30-9 the last four years, which means to play against the Dodgers and Twins.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Yankees are 54-15 after two straight games where they committed no errors.

Free Hockey Pick -3) The LCC consensus has New Jersey bouncing back in Game 2 over Philly nine to zero.

MLB Home Openers at eight Ball Parks

The Major League Baseball season may be a week old, but for several teams the joy of playing before the home fans begins today. Whether the results have been fruitful (Philadelphia 5-1) or less than desirable (Seattle 2-5), for the home town fans, all is forgiven because the boys of summer are back.

Target Field - 4:10E ESPN

The most anticipated home opener is in Minnesota, where the Twins return to the great outdoors after 28 seasons in the Metrodome. The Twins enjoyed as good as home field advantage as any team in baseball, with its speedy carpet and intimidating sound when the joint was two-thirds full or more.

Part of Minnesota’s edge was opposing teams had no use for the place. “I hated that dome,” Red Sox manager Terry Francona said, whose team will be the first opponent in the new park, adding: “You couldn’t see the ball when it went up. You had those speakers hanging off the thing. I felt like I was in an office building.”

Minnesota won five of their first seven games on the road, thanks to outstanding pitching that has allowed just three runs per game. Carl Pavano makes his second start of the year, being a +140 underdog according to Sportsbook.com to Jon Lester and the Red Sox. Pavano is 11-4 as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons (Team's Record), while Lester and Boston is 60-25 on grass fields.

One difficulty the Red Sox have endured is 3-14 record in road games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last three seasons.

Wrigley Field – 2:20E WGN

Baseball returns to the North Side of Chicago at the Friendly Confines for a 95th season. The Cubs are 2-4 to begin 2010 with offense lacking punch and bullpen more giving than a philanthropist. Chicago is batting Mendoza-like .197 as a team and all four losses have come after leading in the game, the last three given away by the bullpen.

Ryan Dempster is a noted fast starter, as he and Cubs teammates are 14-2 at home in the first half of the season the last two years. Chicago is a -155 money line choice and is National League best 145-97 at home since 2007. The Cubs will try to get into Milwaukee’s bullpen, which blew two saves over the weekend to St. Louis, at least coming back to win yesterday 8-7. The Brewers are 4-15 after a blown blew a save since last year.

Citizens Bank Park -3:05E MASN

The Phillies look every bit as good as the team that has made consecutive World Series appearances, winning it all in 2008, with 5-1 start. They open up before their adoring fans as a decisive -275 money line favorite against everyone’s punching bag Washington. Cole Hamels will get the start against the free-swinging Nationals and the Phils are 51-26 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a contest.

Maybe this won’t be as easy as it appears for Philadelphia as Washington is still .500 this late in the season (good for them) and Hamels and the Phillies are 1-8 in days games dating back to the start of last year. With the total at Un.9.5, the defending National League champs are 15-3 UNDER at home vs. NL teams allowing 5.3 or more runs a game.

Progressive Field 3:05E

Cleveland started just about as expected with 2-4 record on the road and seeks better results against a Texas team that has been a nemesis. The Indians lost eight of nine to the Rangers in 2009 and hope Fausto Carmona can provide another early season victory. Cleveland blew a five run lead in losing to Detroit yesterday 9-8 and is 10-24 after scoring eight runs or more. The Tribe is +110 underdog in their home opener.

Busch Stadium -4:15E

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing real offensive firepower the first week of the new campaign, scoring 6.2 runs per game on the way to 4-2 record. They will finally get to show the home folks just how explosive they are against a Houston club the has not scratched in the win column in 2010 and is off to their worst start in 27 years at 0-6.

The middle of the line-up has been especially potent with Albert Pujols batting .375 with four home runs and 10 RBIs and Matt Holiday hitting .423 with three home runs and six RBIs. If Adam Wainwright continues to pitch like he has since last year, the -230 ML is well justified for Cards team that is 20-3 a favorite of -175 to -250 over the last two seasons.

PETCO Park – 6:35E Sports South

A home opener means different things to different players. The Padres Kevin Correia grew up in San Diego and used to attend games at Qualcomm Stadium as a kid. In 2008 he signed a minor league contract with San Diego after five years in the San Francisco organization and is on the big club, making the start today in the team’s initial home game of the season.

“It’s exciting to be able to pitch at home and have it be opening day,” Correia told the Padres’ official Web site. “It’s going to be something to look back on and remember.” The Friars are +145 home dogs to Atlanta; however Correia and Pads are 13-6 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after a loss since he became starting pitcher.

Safeco Field – 6:40E

This year is supposed to be different for Seattle, a contender in the AL West, but a 2-5 start has them tied for last in the division and they take on Oakland in their first homestand of the season, the surprising leader out West. The offense was the deepest concern coming into 2010 and those beliefs have founded to be true, batting .230 as a team with .303 on-base percentage and totaling three runs a game. Having lost the last three of four games in series to the A’s, the Mariners are 12-3 in the Great Northwest with double revenge on their minds and are a -120 betting choice.

Rogers Centre – 7:20E RSN

Expectations are very low for the Blue Jays this upcoming season, but at least for the moment those thoughts have given way to optimism with Toronto of to flying 5-1 start. With a rejuvenated pitching staff that was ravaged by injures a year ago, Toronto has permitted 18 runs in first six outings. Brian Tallet will take a second turn this season for Blue Jays squad that is 20-10 in April since 2009 and face Chicago team that is 0-10 in Canada. The White Sox will start Jake Peavy and are -125 ML faves against Toronto team that have won last hour home openers.

AL West squads search for split to start the season

It’s an odd sight to see Major League baseball teams to open the year playing a four game series. Most start with one game, have potential rain date and continue series that adds up to three contests. One advantage that can be typically counted on is playing baseball in California, where weather is seldom an issue, thus sites Oakland and Anaheim are the perfect places to start with a four game series if needed.

This season Seattle and Los Angeles are considered prime rivals for the American League West crown and each has lost two of three to start a new campaign and each needs a victory today to gain a split to begin the year.

Sleepless in Seattle

The Mariners made several off-season moves designed to close the gap between themselves and the Angels. Though one-run wins or losses are considered random events by baseball math experts, since they are changeable from year to year for every team, that doesn’t make them any easier to swallow.

Seattle after winning the first contest over division partner Oakland, has lost 2-1 and 6-5 the last two evenings, with the latter blowing a lead late in the game.

The M’s will turn to Doug Fister for the first time in 2010. As a rookie, he was 3-4 with a 4.13 ERA in 11 games, 10 which of he was a starter. Fister is a big man at 6’8, but is not overpowering, being more a pitch to contact hurler. Look for Oakland to load up with as many left-handed bats as they can against the right-hander, since he surrendered a home run every 15 at bats against them in 2009. Seattle failed to win in Fister’s last four road starts.

Oakland counters with one of their young studs, 22-year old Brett Anderson. The lefty set an Oakland rookie record with 150 strikeouts and led the team in both strikeouts and wins with 11. He was roughed up a bit in the spring, but part of that was trying to add a changeup into his pitching arsenal. Dating back to last season, the A’s are 9-3 off a win.

For this 3:35 Eastern matinee, Bookmaker.com has Oakland as -160 money line favorite with total Ov8, however the Athletics are 6-17 at home having won two of their last three games and are 6-1 OVER in Game Four of a series.

Seattle will look to balance the win/loss ledger, but are 9-23 as road underdog of +150 or less and 2-7 vs. left-handed starters. The Mariners are 29-15 UNDER in day games.

Angels need a prayer

Los Angeles has lost Chone Figgins and Vladimir Guerrero from their everyday lineup and while it is way too early to make judgment call, the Angels have dropped last two contests to the Twins, totaling five runs.

The Angels hope the bats awaken against Minnesota starter Kevin Slowey, whose fastball is in the 88-89 range, which he throws easily on both sides of the plate. He mixes in a tight curveball and late-breaking slider. L.A. will look to attack early, since they are 41-15 in double revenge situations.

The Halos will have two different debuts Thursday at 10:05 Eastern, Hideki Matsui in leftfield for the first time since June 15, 2008 and Joel Pineiro making his initial start with Angels cap.

"Every first start of every year is exciting," Pineiro said. "You want to get out there and get that first one out of the way and get in the normal rotation. It's just a matter of executing, hitting your spots and making your pitches. You've got to get ahead in the count and expand from there. I want to attack their weaknesses with my strengths.

That might be easier said than done for Pineiro, who is 2-6 with a 4.32 ERA against Minnesota, facing players that are dialed in.

Justin Morneau and J.J. Hardy are coming off long balls in back to back games, leading a Twins club that is 14-5 following a victory. Minnesota is a +115 road dog and has won six of seven outright when at +110 to +150 price.

L.A. is the favorite for a fourth time in the series and despite a pair of defeats is 9-3 as home fave. Normally the Big A is a positive place for the Angels when the Twins visit, sporting a 24-11 record.

Now to Baseball's Real Opening Day

The made for TV part of the beginning of the baseball season was last night, today we move ahead to the 13 parks stuffed with fans, the aroma of people grilling a collection of wonder foods and everyone is in good mood because baseball is back. This is yet another sign that warmer weather and outdoor activities are on the way and the local nine has yet to disappoint one person, plus the activity of watching scores from out-of-town ads to the experience. Let the romance begin with five nationally televised games.

St. Louis at Cincinnati 1:10E ESPN

No better place to start baseball than in Cincinnati, the first professional baseball team that started way back in 1869, then known as Red Stockings. While no one expects this Cincinnati team to start the way their predecessor did (the Red Stockings won 130 consecutive games from 1969-70), the Reds have good young talent with the likes of Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

Aaron Harang makes his fifth consecutive Opening Day start and believes he’s made enough mechanical tweaks to fix what has caused him to lose 31 total games the two years. Harang is 7-10 with 4.54 ERA against St. Louis.

The Cardinals are favorites to win the NL Central, with the best hitter in baseball in Albert Pujols, now backed with coverage for the entire season by Matt Holiday. St. Louis also has arguably the best pitcher in the National League in Cris Carpenter who gets the start. The Cy Young runner-up last year is also making his fifth start in an opener and is 7-3 with low 2.11 ERA against the Reds.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Cards as -150 money line favorites, with total Un7.5. Carpenter is 39-22 in road games in the first half of the season in his career. This is the first time these two teams have squared off in game one of a new season since 1994.

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox 2:05E ESPN2

The Indians are being picked last in the AL Central by many baseball experts. That doesn’t mean the Indians are devoid of talent with CF Grady Sizemore, DH Travis Hafner, Shin-Soo Choo, SS Asdrubal Cabrera and players dripping with potential in Matt LaPorta and outfielder Michael Brantley. Pitching is the big concern in Cleveland and Jake Westbrook is the game one starter for the first time is five seasons. The Tribe is +160 money line road underdog with total at Un9 and Westbrook is 11-28 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5. (Team's Record)

The White Sox open 2010 more athletic and presumably better defensively. They also have four very good starting pitchers which is why they should be competing for the division title. One of them is Mark Buehrle, making his franchise-record eighth Opening Day start, previously shared with Billy Pierce. The left-hander threw a perfect game last season and set a Major League record of 45 straight batters retired. Beuhrle is 76-46 all-time at U.S. Cellular Field and is 82-41 as a favorite of -125 to -175. (White Sox Record)

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta 4:10E ESPN

The Cubs and Braves enter 2010 with buoyed enthusiasm. Chicago got rid of clubhouse cancer Milton Bradley and added Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady to their outfield mix, looking for more production. Manager Lou Pinella is hoping the injury bug stays away and that a 15 pounds lighter Carlos Zambrano can rebound from off year. Chicago is a +120 road dog and was undesirable 8-27 as an underdog of +100 to +150 last season, however Cubs fans could be mildly optimistic since Big Z is 41-20 as visitor when the total is 8.5 to 10. (Cubs Record)

Atlanta made bullpen modifications they believe will lead to more victories in skipper Bobby Cox swan song season. The venerable Cox likes his starting pitching and is excited about 20-year-old phenom Jason Heyward who brings power and speed to the Braves. Atlanta is 93-57 UNDER in the first half of the season over the last two seasons and Derek Lowe will be the Braves first hurler to toe the rubber.

San Francisco at Houston 7:05E ESPN2

The Giants look to take the next step after startling 88-win campaign and be in the hunt for division crown. Having back to back Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum is a wonderful place to start and the front office thinks Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff will help the offense generate more runs, after averaging only 4.1 per game in 2009.

The best news out of Houston is new manager Brad Mills is earning glowing praise with his positive energy, however not one game has mattered yet. The pitching staff has been bolstered with Brandon Lyon, Brett Myers and Matt Lindstrom. Unfortunately, Lance Berkman begins the year on the DL. The Astros will have Roy Oswalt making his eighth consecutive Opening Day start, but his club is 2-5 in those contests despite a solid 3.35 from the right-hander, whose been nursing a sore left hamstring.

Houston is a +120 money line home underdog with total Un7, nonetheless the ‘Stros won all eight of Oswalt’s assignments against the NL West last season. San Francisco has to be considered dangerous anyways, with 40-22 mark when a -150 favorite or less and Lincecum is 2-0 with 1.67 ERA vs. Houston.

Minnesota at L.A. Angels 10:05E ESPN2

Only one game features division champions on Opening Day and that is in Anaheim with Minnesota beginning with the Angels. These two squads are different than a season ago, one presumably for the better and the other to be determined.

The Twins have a new combination up the middle with shortstop J.J. Hardy and 2B Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome returns to the AL Central as DH for Minnesota. Scott Baker is off a 15-win season, reestablishing himself as the masthead of the staff and he earns the Twins opening start. Baker is 0-4 in six starts in Anaheim with 5.59 ERA. The late innings will look a lot different for Minnesota fans with Joe Nathan gone for the year, setting up bullpen by committee with Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch and Jesse Crain.

The Angels suffered some real blows in losing John Lackey, Vladimir Guerrero and Chone Figgins to other American League clubs and look to pick up the prices adding Joel Pineiro, Hideki Matsui and Brandon Wood in their places. The new lead-dog for the Halos is Jered Weaver, who is a laid-back Cali type, a far cry from Lackey’s bulldog tendencies. Nevertheless, Weaver is 27-12 at the Big A and big reason why the Angles are -130 money line choice with total listed at Ov7. The Twins were 27-11 UNDER in the in the first half of the last season.