Saturday Preseason Football

It is a large slate of action in Week 3 of the NFL preseason and every game has meaning to the players trying to make the team and coaches trying to be ready for the regular season. Here is a look at each game with key wagering information for each contest.

San Diego at Atlanta

This is will be the CBS game starting at 8:00 Eastern, with running back Michael Turner going against his old teammates from San Diego. Atlanta would be 2-0 if the backups had not surrendered lead late at Detroit in 27-26 loss. Quarterback Matt Ryan looks like we will avoid a sophomore slump, playing extremely well in limited action. The Falcons are 2.5-point favorites at Bookmaker.com with total of 42 and are 21-8 ATS after playing their last game on the road.

It’s been a different preseason for San Diego, as LaDainian Tomlinson has actually done something besides stand on the sidelines like in years past. L.T. isn’t being overworked mind you with eight carries and a couple of pass catches, however that is way more activity than he’s seen in recent years as he looks to rebound from injury. Even with last week’s 17-6 upset win in Arizona as 1.5-point underdogs, coach Norn Turner teams are 3-6 ATS as dogs or Pick.

Indianapolis at Detroit

Indianapolis may have rotten reputation as preseason team (6-18, 9-14-1 ATS), but Detroit is even less thought of as a team of any kind. In this NFL Network matinee, the Lions have gone from 1.5-point favorites to three-point underdogs. This is the dress rehearsal week for the regular season and the Colts are 6-1 ATS and Detroit is 2-10 SU and ATS in the next to last exhibition game.

New Orleans at Oakland

Another afternoon affair means another flip of the favorites, this time on the Left Coast. The always controversial Oakland Raiders have covered a pair of contests in sporting .500 record, however the wagering public isn’t sold this team that opened as Pick and fell to +2.5-points, is equipped to handle New Orleans who has won both contests by average of 17 points. The Saints are 23-10 ATS in August road games and 16-5 ATS in the visiting uniforms with six or less days rest.

Tennessee at Cleveland

Coach Eric Mangini will take one more look at Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn and decide who will be his starting quarterback in Cleveland, at least for game one. The Browns blew-up Detroit last week 27-10, but are 1-9 ATS after a win by 10 or more points. Tennessee played bored last Friday at Dallas, having played one more preseason contest thanks to Hall of Fame encounter. The Titans are two-point dogs, nonetheless are 11-1 ATS vs. opponent off a win and cover.

Buffalo at Pittsburgh

Buffalo is 1-2 and 1-1-1 ATS and this week have to solve turnover issues that are plaguing them, with 11 miscues already. Trent Edwards could use Terrell Owens, who is expected to miss another game with sprained toe. The Bills are six-point underdogs with total of 36, yet if they can score 15-21 points, they are 12-2 ATS on the road. Ben Roethlisberger was held out last week, but is presumed ready for action. Pittsburgh is 10-15 ATS in third preseason game and is 1-3 and 0-4 ATS since 2005.

Baltimore at Carolina

Carolina has yet to scratch in the win column in 2009, mostly due to run defense surrendering 140 yards a game. They’ll try and shore this area up this week, but it will be without linebacker Jon Beason, who strained his MCL, and who will be held out at least until regular season starts. Baltimore has been efficient 2-0 (1-1 ATS), looking like playoff contender again. Watch the total here (36) with Panthers on 6-0 OVER run and Ravens 14-4 UNDER off one or more straight Overs.

San Francisco at Dallas

For football fans, this encounter is a quick trip down memory lane of classic matchups these teams played in the 1980’s and 90’s. This won’t be the case today, with Dallas a seven-point favorite and total of 38. The 49ers named Shaun Hill as starting quarterback, but he and former No.1 pick Alex Smith might both be on the sidelines with injury. Say hello to Damon Huard and rookie Nate Davis for San Francisco who has two wins without a cover. The Cowboys played with purpose last in routing Tennessee 30-10, however is dastardly 1-9 ATS at home if opponent is off two SU wins.

Seattle at Kansas City

These former AFC division partners will meet again in Kansas City. Matt Hasselbeck looks all the way back from injured back of a year ago. Hasselbeck has the fastball back in repertoire and better accuracy on sideline routes. The Seahawks may be catching 2.5-points, however are 8-0 ATS in last eight August tries and 9-1 ATS since 2007. Kansas City has played like a team installing new offensive and defensive systems and is just the opposite of Seattle, posting 1-9 ATS mark the last three years.

N.Y. Jets vs N.Y. Giants

The Giants are the designated home team, which means they get the bigger locker room in bragging rights matchup. The G-Men have been hit hard on the defensive side of the ball with injuries, yet most Giants fans are more concerned if Eli Manning will mesh with wide receiver group quickly. The New York football Giants are 9-21 ATS in the last two weeks of the preseason. Rookie Mark Sanchez has enjoyed the bright lights of New York thus far, but now productivity will be his savior as Jets QB. Sanchez appeared a trifle overwhelmed by Baltimore’s defense last week and has to remain composed. Gang Green is 13-3-1 ATS in this Big Apple battle, on the receiving end of three points.

Monday Night Football Preview

As far as NFL preseason games go, this Monday night contest has a number of story lines to follow. The New York Jets have a new head coach in Rex Ryan and it is taking all of one game to return to Baltimore, where he spent the last 10 years, the last four as defensive coordinator. While Ryan will acquaint himself with friends on the Ravens sidelines and others in the stands, he will have to soon make his first really challenging decision of who will the Flyboys starting quarterback.

In many ways it’s a no-lose decision, since top draft choice Mark Sanchez will be under center as the starting quarterback in New York eventually. Sanchez is battling with holdover Kellen Clemens and the former USC Trojan will take the field first when the Jets have the ball on Monday.

New York lost at home to St. Louis 23-20 as four-point favorites and arrives in Baltimore in a favorable spot. The Jets are three-point underdogs at DiamondSportsbook.com and underdogs (or Pick) off an upset loss as a favorite are 29-9 ATS this week of the preseason.

Sanchez, Clemens and Erik Anige will go against what has been one the best defenses of this decade in the Ravens. Linebacker Ray Lewis may no longer have the speed and quickness of a few seasons ago, yet he spearheads a fearsome bunch that enjoys hitting whatever moves in opposing uniforms. The defense befuddled Washington last week, holding them to 196 total points and kept them from registering any points.

Offensively, second year signal caller Joe Flacco was efficient 9-of-15 for 103 yards in two series and will see greater action this week. Troy Smith will follow Flacco after throwing for 200 yards last week, part of the 500 yards the Ravens totaled. With John Beck out with shoulder injury, Baltimore signed Cleo Lemon this week, since he is familiar with offensive coordinator Cam Cameron's system, having played in Miami when Cameron was there. With last week’s shutout win, Baltimore is 4-5 ATS at home the last five years in the preseason.

Oddsmakers have set the total at 32.5 and which would appear to favor New York who is 11-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 35 or less. The low figure could also attract the attention of totals players, with the Ravens 22-10 UNDER as a favorite and 11-2 UNDER as a home favorite of three points or less.

Kickoff is set for 8 Eastern on ESPN with New York 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight preseason games as the visitor.

Preseason NFL Wagering Tips

The NFL Preseason gives sports bettors their first shot at getting back into to the game they are so passionate about. The SportsCenter highlights and countless team reports being blogged with up to the minute information has the football bettor foaming at the mouth to make first game wager. Never mind the fact that most of the teams don’t truly care whether they win or lose, it’s about getting ready for the regular season. With that thought in mind, nobody bets to lose, so like any other investment plan, it helps to have a strategy, do your homework, and be disciplined in your approach to betting the NFL preseason. This article is designed to map out a game plan of specific tactics that have been successful over the years.

Obviously the game is different in the preseason. The most important thing to always remember is NEVER handicap the games using regular season strategies. Often, preseason lines may be set by the public’s perception of a team’s chances for regular season, but this only serves to trap the uninformed bettor. Use statistics and trends that represent a team’s or coaches past preseason performances. Anything else is a mistake in my less than humble opinion. Once you’re comfortable with a place to get your stats and trends from, utilize these following general week-by-week strategies to build your bankroll for the NFL season, which will be here in a matter of time.

Pre-Preseason

Just like in the regular season, it is important to know your NFL teams. I am not talking about reading hours of information about every given team, rather to know the coaches and the tendencies of the teams. Coaching blunders and superior game plans can alter the outcomes of contests during the regular season. A missed tackle by the opposition or unexpected turnovers can change the final score, no matter what a coach does. In the preseason, a coach can directly impact the scoreboard by substitution patterns and what his goal is for the team beforehand. Throughout the internet or in many preseason publications, interesting fact-based cold data is available for you to learn from. For example, New Orleans is harrowing favorite at 11-22 ATS, yet is quite profitable 29-18 ATS as an underdog. Take a look at a team like Jacksonville who wears the underdog hat comfortably at 16-7-1 ATS.

Week 1 - Know your Coaches

This is extremely important if you have a desire to have extra money before the regular season starts. Be assured all the oddsmakers know these numbers also, it is your duty as well if you expect to profit. Coach Bill Belichick has always placed a strong emphasis on winning period. The Patriots are 21-13 ATS as favorites and 12-4 against the spread as home faves versus incoming teams with losing records. New England is 5-1 ATS the first week of preseason, as Belichick wants the hard work of training camp to pay off for the players as an immediate benefit.

Philadelphia’s Andy Reid is big on preparation when it counts and uses a different approach. The Eagles are 14-26 SU under Reid in the during exhibition encounters with 19-21 ATS record. What is noteworthy about following Philly is they have lost and failed to cover last five opening preseason games. Reid has used this time wisely to evaluate his large squad and is not bothered by the outcome. He in turn uses the loss as motivational tool and is 5-0 SU and ATS in week 2.

Another important factor is first year coaches. This year we have eight coaches that are taking over new teams and two others that were mid-season replacements running their first camps. Not one is a retread, meaning they all have to earn the players respect and vise-versa. After going through grueling training camps, each coach will want to prove to his players that the work has been worth the trouble. Nothing pays off like winning. Historically, these coaches can bring a nice profit. However, with so many coaches with new teams it would appear very difficult to make a profit because of the volume of games.

The potential path of least resistance would be to Play On first time head coaches (When not matched against other teams with same circumstance), coaching teams off bad season or seasons, when facing veteran or playoff teams. These new head masters will want to make a strong impression and establish credibility. Their job is to show the team who is boss, the direction is correct and the right players will be on board to make it happen. As baseball manager Casey Stengel once said “We’ll win soon, just not with these players.”

Oakland’s Tom Cable and San Francisco’s Mike Singletary started to set the wheels in motion as replacements last season, however will want to place a stamp on what they expect. Jim Mora Jr. and Jim Caldwell were part of succession planning at respective franchises and this makes their situation a tougher call.

Week 2 - Be ready to pounce

This is one of the two weeks you can really take advantage of the lines and make large profits with proper preparation. The most important factors this week are prior performance and motivation. These are largely tied together of which you can take advantage. I’ve already made mention of how Philadelphia fits into a week like this and Minnesota is another example for last season. The Vikings were awful in losing first game at home to Seattle, 34-17 as three-point favorites. After a week of Brad Childress cracking the whip, Minnesota was at Baltimore for next contest, which was off win over New England. The Vikes gave a much more focused performance and whipped the Ravens 23-15, catching a point.

Another example from 2008 was New Orleans, which fits the mold. The Saints started with a crisp 24-10 effort at Arizona, on the receiving end of a couple of points. They returned home maybe a little satisfied, maybe Sean Payton lightened the reins and with a total of 36 set, New Orleans lost a 31-27 shootout. With how long training camp is to the players, a coach can’t pound on them every day, thus all teams will have flat spots after solid efforts. Show me a coach that wants to go undefeated in August and I’ll show you a team with a losing record in early January.

This time around, be sure to watch for teams that may have put up less than admirable efforts in the first week, and grab those that you feel will be better motivated for week two outing.

Week 3 –Dress Rehearsal

Previously, the last week of the preseason was the time when teams played the starters at least two-thirds of the game, to give the coaches a real sense of where the team was and if they were on schedule. Because of the number of injuries that occur, Week 3 has become the important week to gauge each club’s progress. Many of the same principles still apply about motivation, with a few variations of note.

The coaches and players place additional importance on this week, thus giving a good showing does matter. In the preseason, situational handicapping has relevance, especially for teams losing by 10 or more points the week before. This is noteworthy, with back-ups playing and the games should be fairly evenly matched. Once again coaches will create further accountability through motivational and psychological tactics. The 2007 campaign ended in disappointment for Green Bay in the NFC title game against eventual Super Bowl champion the New York Giants. The Brett Favre circus was just leaving town last year and the coaching staff was desperate to establish Aaron Rodgers as quarterback, after losing first two preseason games. Mike McCarthy wanted excellence from his squad and they pulled off a 27-24 upset in Denver, who has traditionally been a very good preseason squad under now former coach Mike Shanahan.

How different situations can work to your advantage is maybe the coach feels the team is coming along too fast and wants to dial it back. We all know coaches are control freaks. Coaches want to build you up to tear you down and vise-versa. In the preseason, any coach loves to put the team thru strenuous practices after a weak effort. This is part of the other aspect of analyzing situations, teams off blow-out losses. The players are sick of training camp and played poorly. The coach runs them ragged and the players want the head-man off their backs, thus they respond in a positive manner and win and cover the next game.

Week 4 – Pick your spots and be ready for the regular season

The last week of the preseason is nothing more than final preparation for most teams trying only to avoid injury and making final cuts. Under Shanahan, Denver always was strong closer, having covered last nine this week, will it continue with new coach? Marvin Lewis is on 4-0 ATS run, with Houston 0-6 ATS and Washington one behind at 0-5 against the linemaker in Week 4. It is wise to be cautious in your plays the last week. If you are having a winning preseason, a game or two that you really are sure of is worth the risk to find a couple more winners. If you are having a mediocre or below average time in picking winners before the start of the season, save your money for what you care about most, the beginning of the start of the NFL regular season. This is what you have been looking forward to anyways.

Final Thoughts

Take the time to review the box scores in the preseason. Do not do this for traditional reasons as you might believe. Looking at stats and trying to figure out your fantasy team has nothing to do with the preseason games. What this is for is future reference and the next week’s opportunity to cash with productive results. Studying can lead to insights about any team’s depth or possible motivation based on outcome. Every NFL team is going to have injuries. By reviewing the box scores this time of year, you might find a team that has built up 17-0 or 20-3 leads with the first team players in two different games and ends up losing both contests in the 2nd half. This could well be a red flag that when this team has injuries during the 16-game season, the drop-off will be precipitous.

Don’t handicap the pre-season the same as the regular season. These are truly two completely different animals. Don’t over-analyze, keep it simple. If you are going to watch these games, focus on Week 3, when it matters more to a certain degree. Most importantly, have fun and enjoy the fact that you are that much closer to September 10th, the kickoff of the regular season.