Red Sox in "must" win over New York

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are two polarizing teams to the general public. A lot of baseball fans complain these teams are on TV all the time and the networks refute the argument by showing the number of eyeballs watching baseball are up significantly when these two rivals are on the flat screen, especially when they face one another.

I have no allegiance to either team, since both are overpriced from betting perspective. Yet today is perfect example why people outside the East Coast quickly tire hearing about these two teams.

Early this morning I opened my computer and on MSN, I read this screaming headline - Yankees bullpen still an enigma.

I thought about that for nanosecond and realized what struck me, the word “still”. Would that be the “still” from last year when Joe Girardi expertly put together a combination of pitchers in the second half of the season that went on to win the World Series for the 27th time for the Yankees or the “still” where this 2010 contingent stood after TWO games with 160 more yet to be played.

I’m quite sure Jon Paul Morosi, the national MLB writer for FOXSports.com is a very good baseball writer with deep insights into the game and a big part of his job is to write articles that will bring thousands of readers so Fox can charge higher rates for advertising, but my god to have diatribe about why New York is having eighth inning issues, when the paint is still wet on a new season border is ridiculous.

When hordes of reporters follow these teams around on a daily basis and the national press is in town, everybody has to have an angle.

Trying to jump into the spirit of the moment, I made up my own headline to be attention grabber for tonight’s televised conflict on ESPN2.

Let’s skip the drama and get to the action OK?

John Lackey makes first start as a Boston pitcher with altered bank account. I’ve thought Lackey has been overrated for the last few years, with the Angels always selling this bulldog image of him, but all I see is 5-8 record with 4.43 ERA against the pinstripes (flat gray for tonight), not exactly legendary. Ruff, ruff or whatever bulldogs do.

Lackey will face Andy Pettitte, who is second among active Major League pitchers with 229 wins and is 19-9 with 4.05 ERA against the BoSox since 1997.

I checked with DiamondSportsbook.com and found Boston as -140 favorites and the total is Under 10, after opening at Over 10. Going thru the StatFox Foxsheets found where Pettitte and the Yankees are 10-0 Under in April the last couple of years. The Yanks have won last seven games after scoring five or more runs and the left-hander is on the mound.

I also found where Boston is 44-13 at Fenway when the total is 10 or higher and 20-8-1 Over when a -150 favorite or less.

Paul Schrieber is the home plate umpire and is it coincidence New York is 8-2 when he’s behind the dish?

Here’s my advice, enjoy the game, I hope you have the right side or total and don’t make a bigger deal about than what it is. For real importance get back to me when they meet the first weekend in August.

Written by freelance writer Red Wydley.

Major Conference Tournament Betting Trends

Hopefully you picked up the Conference Tournament Tendencies article focusing in on the leagues that started their tourney’s last week, as some of the trends uncovered really fared well, especially those dealing with totals. In that piece, I covered the smaller conferences. Here, I am back to address all of the action occurring this week, including the major conferences like the Big East, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC. Many bettors find the action this week to be even more exciting, or if you want to say, maddening, than the first days of the NCAA tournament. There will certainly be a lot to choose from, both at your sportsbook and on your TV. Make sure you consider the following trends before making your commitments.

Big East Conference

In Tuesday/Wednesday Big East Conference Tournament action, or the early rounds, FAVORITES are on a run of 17-5 SU & 14-8 ATS (63.5%) since ’05. When broken down among line ranges, you’ll find FAVORITES of less than 7-points are on a 9-2 SU & ATS run.
The quarterfinal round of the Big East tournament has been very high scoring over the last four years, with 11 of 16 games (68.8%) going OVER the total.

On average, one of every four Big East quarterfinal games is an upset, with 12 underdogs winning outright over the L12 years. Underdogs of 7-points or more during that span hold a 10-6 ATS edge (62.5%).

Underdogs have held the edge in the Big East semifinal round over the last five years, going 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%). Those getting more than 3-points have covered five of the L6 (83.3%).

Fatigue tends to set in this round as well, as defense rules the day. Since ’99, UNDER the total is 15-7 (68.2%).

A strange pattern has developed in the Big East tournament title game, with underdogs and favorites alternating ATS wins EVERY YEAR since ’98. Accordingly, the UNDERDOG is scheduled to cover in ’10 after Louisville’s chalk win over Syracuse last spring.

Atlantic 10 Conference

UNDERDOGS have managed to split the eight first round Atlantic 10 tournament games of the last two years after FAVORITES had been on an incredible 24-2 SU & 21-5 ATS (80.8%) run.

FAVORITES of 7-points or less are on a run of 18-4 SU & 17-5 ATS (77.3%) in first round Atlantic 10 tournament action since ’01.

Including 3-1 ATS a year ago, FAVORITES in the quarterfinal round of the A-10 tourney, going 20-7 SU & 18-9 ATS (66.7%) since ’03. During that stretch, DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES are 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS (77.8%).

The semifinal round of the A-10 tournament has proven quite competitive, with UNDERDOGS of 4.5-points or more having gone 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS over the last dozen years.
The A-10 title game has been anything but competitive, with underdogs having won just once in the last 10 years (1-8 ATS 11.1%).

Big 12 Conference
There might be no other major conference tournament that has seen more UNDERDOGS cover with regularity than the Big 12. In fact, since 2000, dogs are 61-44 ATS, a solid 58.1%. UNDERDOGS of 6-points or more are 37-21 ATS (63.8%) during that stretch.

The last three Big 12 tournaments have been particularly defensive-oriented, with UNDER the total converting in 22 of 33 games (66.7%), and the losing team being held to 60 points or less in 17 of those contests.

On Big 12 tournament games with totals set at 147-points or higher, the UNDER is 13-3 (81.3%).

The last 12 Big 12 tournament quarterfinal games have gone UNDER the total (100%). UNDERDOGS are 7-3-2 ATS (70%) in that span.

Like clockwork, the last seven years of Big 12 semifinal games have seen one favorite cover, one underdog. Of the games with lines set at 6-points or higher, UNDERDOGS are 5-1 ATS (83.3%).

Conference-USA

The millennium also saw a shift from favorites to underdogs holding the edge in Conference USA, as dogs are a healthy 60-45 ATS (57.1%) since ’00.

Double-digit lines are a regular occurrence in the C-USA tourney, and teams laying 10-points or more are 19-0 SU & 11-8 ATS (57.9%) since ’06.

The best value on C-USA tourney UNDERDOGS comes with those getting 6.5-points or less, as they are 20-17 SU & 26-10-1 ATS (72.2%) dating back to ’03.

C-USA UNDERDOGS in the FIRST ROUND own a 24-13-2 ATS (64.9%) record since ’00.
Of the 16 C-USA round one matchups since ’06, the UNDER is 13-3 (81.3%).

The C-USA quarterfinal round also “goes to the dogs”, as UNDERDOGS are 9-3 ATS (75%) over the last three seasons.

With Memphis dominating the proceedings, the FAVORITES turn the tables in the semifinal round, having gone 17-3 SU & 12-8 ATS (60%) over the L10 years. The Tigers have won four straight title games as favorites as well, going 3-1 ATS (75%).

Since 2006, UNDER the total is 10-2 (83.3%) in the C-USA semifinal & final games.

Mountain West Conference

Having held the yearly edge in every one of the last eight Mountain West tournaments except 2005, UNDERDOGS are 40-18 ATS (68.9%) overall during that span.

There is a sizeable break at one particular line point in past Mountain West Tournament games. FAVORITES of 9-points or more are 8-7 ATS (53.3%) since ’02. UNDERDOGS of 8.5-points or less are an incredible 33-10 ATS (76.7%).

UNDERDOGS hold a particularly strong edge in the early Mountain West Tournament action, going 16-4 ATS (80%) in the round one and quarterfinals games since ’06.

FAVORITES have done well late in the last three MWC tourney’s, going 7-1 SU & ATS (87.5%) over the last three years in the semi’s and title games. Note: last year’s championship game was a pick em’ pointspread.

Pac 10 Conference

The Pac 10 is one of the few conferences whose tournaments have been ruled by FAVORITES in recent years, as those teams laying the points are 23-10 ATS (69.7%) over the last four years, including the first six games of the ’09 proceedings.

The Pac 10 tourney games have also been high scoring over the L4 years, 23-12-1 OVER (65.7%) since ’06.

FAVORITES of -3 to -6 points are on a run of 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in the Pac 10 Tournament.
Don’t even bother considering underdogs in the first round or quarterfinals of the Pac 10 tourney if basing it on recent years, as FAVORITES are on an incredible surge of 20-4 SU & 19-5 ATS (79.2%) in those rounds since ’06.

UNDERDOGS stand a much better chance of covering late in the Pac 10 Tournament, 11-7-1 ATS (61.1%) since ’03 in the semi’s and title games.

The key benchmark on wagering totals in the Pac 10 tourney is 156. In games with posted numbers less than that, the OVER is 34-19 (64.2%) since inception. In those higher than 156, the UNDER is 7-2 (77.8%).

Big West Conference
The Big West Conference has seen a fairly even distribution of favorites and underdog covers over the last seven seasons, with FAVORITES owning a slight 25-22 ATS (53.2%) edge.

More on the competitiveness of the Big West tourney…since ’03, there have been only 10 games with lines of 7.5-points or more, with UNDERDOGS going just 1-9 SU, but 8-2 ATS (80%) in those contests.

The last five years of the Big West Tournament have been a goldmine for UNDER bettors, as those playing that side of the total have gone 25-9, for 73.5%. During that span, on totals averaging 137.6 PPG, the games have produced just 133.5 PPG.

Big Sky Conference
The Big Sky Conference has shown a shift to FAVORITES in the last three seasons, as those teams laying points have converted 10 of the 15 (66.7%) games during that stretch.

There have only been two upsets in the Big Sky Conference tournament semifinals over the last seven years, and FAVORITES are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that span.

The Big Sky Conference is one of few where LARGE UNDERDOGS, or those getting 7-points or more, have a good shot at an upset, owning a 4-8 SU & 8-4 ATS record since ’98, including 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS over the L2 years.

FAVORITES in the -4 to -6.5-point line range have been nearly automatic in Big Sky Conference tournament action, 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS (88.2%).

Big Ten Conference
For being a dog-dominated event for most of its early years, there has been a shift to FAVORITES in the last three Big Ten Tournaments, 18-12 ATS (60%) since ’07.

There has also been a huge shift in oddsmakers’ perception on totals. Between ’99 & ’06, the average posted total in Big Ten tourney games was 130.5. Since then, it has dropped nine points to 121.5. Still, UNDER has been the correct choice in 18 of 30 games during that span (60%).

FAVORITES swept all three opening round games of the Big Ten tourney last year, both SU & ATS, slowing a run of 14-4 ATS by dogs.

Similarly, FAVORITES own a 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS mark in the semifinals of the L3 Big Ten tourney’s after going just 1-11 ATS prior.

DOUBLE-DIGIT Big Ten tourney UNDERDOGS are 7-1 ATS (87.5%) since ’05.

LOWER SEEDED FAVORITES boast an 11-5 SU & 9-6-1 ATS (60%) record since ’98 in the Big Ten Tournament.

Atlantic Coast Conference
ACC UNDERDOGS swept the quarterfinal & semifinal games of 2009 against the spread and boast an overall mark of 44-23-3 ATS (65.7%) since ’03.

UNDERDOGS of 9-points or more are 18-6-1 ATS (75%) in the ACC Tournament since ’03, including five straight covers.

How about giving some thought to UNDERDOGS on the pointspread and money line in the opening round of this year’s ACC tourney, as they are 13-6 SU & ATS (68.4%) since ’05.

Quarterfinal UNDERDOGS are effective against the spread, but that’s it, boasting a record of 7-21 SU & 18-9-1 ATS (66.7%) since ’03.

Semifinal UNDERDOGS are even better than previous rounds, 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) since ’99.
It’s not until the ACC title game where FAVORITES take over, 10-1 SU & 6-3-2 ATS (66.7%) since ’99.

The only recognizable trend I could uncover on totals in the ACC tourney came on games with posted numbers 150 points or higher, 10-5 OVER (66.7%) in the L15.

Mid-American Conference

FAVORITES are the preferred betting choice in MAC tournament games in recent years, with a record of 40-26 ATS (60.6%) over the L6 seasons.

The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.

Semifinal FAVORITES in the MAC tournament have swept the last three years of action and are 5-1 ATS (83%) in that span.

The best spot for playing UNDERDOGS in the MAC tournament has proven to be in games when the lines are 3-points or less. In such cases, they are 23-16 ATS (59%) since ’98.

OVER the total has been the preferred choice on that wagering option since ’04, with a 37-24 (60.7%) record since ’04.

Southeastern Conference
The 2008 SEC Tournament was dominated by dogs, 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS, but split down the middle last year, 5-5-1. Overall, since ’05, dogs own a 29-25-1 ATS (53.7%) edge.

Georgia became the first SEC tourney DOUBLE-DIGIT dog to pull an upset since prior to ’98 when it beat Mississippi State in ’08. Overall, those teams are 1-15 SU & 5-11 ATS (31.3%) in that span.

In past SEC games with pointspreads less than 3-points, UNDERDOGS are 15-13 SU & 16-11-1 ATS (59.3%) since ’98.

Although it’s fluctuated back-and-forth in the last few seasons, FAVORITES own a 22-11 ATS edge in opening round SEC tourney action since ’00. Lower-seeded chalk is 5-1 SU & ATS of those games.

UNDERDOGS have been the preferred choice of bettors in SEC quarterfinals over the L3 seasons, 8-3 ATS (72.7%).

In the last nine SEC Tournament championship games, the UNDER is 8-1 (88.9%), and the UNDERDOGS are 4-5 SU & 5-3-1 ATS (62.5%).

Western Athletic Conference
UNDERDOGS covered all but one game in the 2009 WAC Tournament, increasing their four-year record to 20-9 ATS (69%). That span has also seen OVER the total go 21-10 (67.7%).

Lines of less than 3-points should raise an immediate red-flag for WAC tourney bettors, as UNDERDOGS of 2.5-points or less are a profit-making 13-5 SU & 13-4-1 ATS (76.5%) since ’00.

Although there is no first round in this year’s WAC tourney, since ’06, UNDERDOGS in the first round and quarterfinals combined have gone 14-5 ATS (73.7%) over the L4 seasons.

The WAC quarterfinals have produced 14 OVER’s, 6 UNDER’s (70%) over the last five seasons. Similarly, eight of the L10 (80%) WAC semifinal contests have gone OVER the posted total.

Amazingly, in that same stretch, all five WAC title games exceeded the total as well. If you’re combining those numbers, it’s 27-8 (77.1%) OVER for the last five years.

Enjoy the action this week everyone, and be sure to check back next week for the key information you’ll need to sort out the NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT brackets!

Written by Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.

Be a Betting Champion for Conference Tournaments

The regular season is over except for one Ivy League game and the automatic bids are starting to fill in part of the NCAA Tournament dance card, with many of the so-called mid-majors having their conference championships completed. This leaves the bigger and more well-known conferences, along with a sprinkling of somewhat smaller leagues to start filling in with their respective teams.

In order to win during ESPN’s Championship week, you have to follow somewhat different rules than the regular season in wagering this week. Here are aspects to remember.

1) Choosing the right pooch

In most conferences tourney’s, underdogs are an above average wager, as these teams generally have more motivation and likely need to win to get in the tournament. One thing to look for is underdogs that have lost to opponent by 10 or more points twice and are double digit dogs before the semi-final round. This is where an unfocused favorite is most vulnerable and likely will go thru the motions against opponent that has been coached up for this being “a brand new season”. This can be particularly true if the underdog has already won one game in first round of larger conference event and has built a little momentum.

2) Underdogs in the right range

Another situation to look for is an underdog that has lost twice to the same opponent but byfive or less points in home and away situations in the same season. The scores tell us the difference between the two teams is not that significant, a shot here, a few missed free throws or late turnover could have been the difference. The underdog knows they are capable of beating this team; they just have to go out and prove it, which they are certainly capable of. This can be especially true if they have a lower defensive shooting percentage than their opponent on the season. Best bets are those at three points or higher.

3) Don’t get carried away with revenge

One of the most common mistakes I see and hear is sports bettors playing into multiple revenge situations. The two bits of information I just laid out do fall into revenge areas, but don’t get carried away. One such circumstance would be playing against a favorite, who defeated opponent by 15 or more points twice and in both cases the spread was single digits. In all likelihood, the oddsmakers will once again set a number below 10, making this a bad wager and here is why. If the underdog has been blown out twice and the oddsmakers is still calling for tighter game, something is amiss. The next step is to find if there is a matchup issue for the underdog, a player they can’t contain or maybe a style of defense they can’t solve. Old school handicapping would say bet the underdog seeking revenge, but today’s athlete is more confident to “work” opponent and is fearless knowing they can school foe yet again.

Another case would be a single digit underdog who lost by 25 or more with the teams meeting only one time and they were dogs by less than 10 points in previous meeting and have lost two of the prior three confrontations in past years. Basically the same scenario, the favorite cleans the clock of opponent and has history with many of the same players on the roster to do so yet again.

4) When in doubt go Under

Totals become a greater focus in college basketball this time of year, even for those that don’t play them a great deal during the regular season. Conference tournaments are about familiarity and coaches have more than enough film to understand tendencies of whom they are about to play and the pace slows considerably. This is not a revelation, as those setting the numbers are keenly aware, however they can’t deviate too far off the performance chart of how teams have played and all season, low-balling a number they might prefer, but than being slammed with a high volume of Over money, leaving them susceptible to being middled.

5) Road Warriors are safe bet

Always know the road record of matched teams in any meeting. Teams that have success on the road are less likely to give a bad performance as a favorite or underdog if they understand how to play away from home. It wasn’t a coincidence that William and Mary made the Colonial final, despite having no pedigree do to so. The Tribe entered the title game 12-6 and 11-6 ATS as a visitor. It’s worth watching Southern Mississippi who is 12-3 ATS away from Hattiesburgh and Richmond this week, who posted 10-6 and 11-4 ATS mark on the road.
One word of caution, don’t follow spread records exclusively, know the score. A team like East Carolina might look attractive at first glance at 1o-5 against the spread when out-of-town, but are they a good bet say at +8 or less when they lose on average by more than 10 points a game?

6) Numbers don’t lie

By now, most every team has played around 30 games or more and as former NFL football coach Bill Parcels said, “you are who you are”. If a team is around .500, yet has won five in a row, study the numbers to understand what has changed and look up information on the team. Maybe a change in the lineup sparked a hot streak or if this team was underachieving until recently and finally started playing up to level most suspected they should all year, that would be reason to look beyond the numbers.

Otherwise, don’t presume a team like North Carolina, who has surrendered 78 points per game away from Chapel Hill, is suddenly going to be a defensive maven and win the ACC Tournament because they decided to turn it on. Can it happen, of course, is it likely too, not really.

7) Follow coaches, just carefully

This past week, I was reading thru several different forums and at least on 20 occasions from a variety of bettors, they were all going to play Creighton to beat Bradley in Arch Madness, for first game for both squads because of the coach’s history. Dana Altman is a proven X’s and O’s coach, and has won The Valley tournament a number of times and had success in the NCAA tourney as well. One big thing to remember, he did this with better than average to very good teams. He came into matchup with Bradley, with a boring 16-14 club that was 3-12 and 4-11 ATS away from Omaha. The Blue Jays were four point favorites and were scalped by the Braves 81-62.

It makes sense to back a coach with a solid March history, but only if he has the players capable of maximizing his skills.

8) Need to know info

This is a bit self-serving, but Steve Makinen of StatFox worked his tail off in finding some of the finest information you will discover anywhere about particular conference tournaments. It’s on the site, so make sure to read it and keep it handy this week in making decisions. For me personally, I picked up two winners that I was on the fence about and dropped two games that would have been losers, because of this information.

One last case to remember. Just because a team hosts a conference tournament does not make them a lock to being champions. There have been ample times this has occurred, however they can also fail. Already this year, Mercer made the championship game on their home floor and came up short as an underdog to East Tennessee State and top seeded Coastal Carolina failed as a favorite in title tilt as a home favorite to Winthrop.

Make certain to follow these tips and you too can become a consistent betting winner during championship week.

Unreal NFL Sunday Info

Overall a respectable 3-2 day with our system plays a perfect 2-0. Today we have one of the very best systems we have had all year in the NFL at 25-2 ATS. The Top Trend is 100 percent over an extended period of time and Paul Buck looks to continue his latest hot streak. Good Luck
What I know today – Teams that have negative turnover margin of -3 or worse are 13-2-1 ATS in next game the last eight weeks in the NFL. This week that would be Miami, St. Louis, New England, Arizona and the Giants tomorrow night.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System -1) Play On home teams like Detroit after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games with a winning percentage of 25 percent or less, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This system is Holy S _ _ _ 25-2 ATS, 92.6 percent since 1999.

Free Football Trend-2) The Baltimore Ravens are 17-0 ATS at home off a non-conference contest.

Free Football Pick -3) Paul Buck is 17-4 the last five days and has Kansas City as his top play.

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order StatFox Edge Bowl guide, you will thank me.

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Scintillating Saturday of College Football

Matt “hands of stone” Holliday caused us to have 1-2 day on Thursday. We’ll attempt to get back on the winning track with perfect reverse trend in the Big Ten. The Best System follows the big game of the day and it is super 88.5 percent. Ken of the Left Coast Connection is having a good run and offers his top pick for Free. Good Luck

What I learned this week – Alabama has scored 30 points or more in each of its games to start the season for the first time ever and it is the longest such streak since 1979.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Florida who are average passing team (175-230 PY/game) against an average passing defense (175-230 PY/game), after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. This system is a kick butt 23-3 ATS, 88.5 percent since 2005. (Thanks StatFox)

Free Football Trend -2) Wisconsin is 0-9 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 310 yards or less a game over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Ken of the LCC is 11-4 in his last 15 CFB plays and is backing Temple today.

Guaranteed CFB selections from Paul Buck who is 31-18, 63.2 percent betting college football sides this season and has his MAC Masher. Today we have our Pac-10 Underdog Play of the Month.

The Platinum Sheet has invaluable info for the sports bettor.