NFL Preseason Football Wagering Strategy

For years I never followed the NFL in the month of August, thought it was a waste of time and absolutely had nothing to do with the regular season. The latter point is still true, just not the first one. Over the last seven years I made more money in the preseason then I would have guessed betting football online.

The beauty of exhibition games (NFL hates that term) is their simplicity. I’ve been very fortunate to honestly hit over 63% (44-25) of these plays the last seven years and now I’ll share with you how it happened. Please understand, in hitting a percentage like this, you have to be very selective and really choose your spots. I’ve made a grand total of 69 plays in seven seasons, that is less than three per week. This can be a challenge for those eager to get started and end up making a significant hole before the regular season actually starts.

Pre-Pre Season

Just like in the regular season, it is important to know your teams. Not talking about reading hours of information about every given team, rather to know the coaches and the tendencies of the teams. Coaching blunders and superior game plans can alter the outcomes of contests during the regular season. Still a missed tackle by the opposition or unexpected turnovers can change the ultimate final score, no matter what a coach does. In the preseason, a coach can directly impact the scoreboard by substitution patterns and what his goal is for the team beforehand.

Throughout the internet is interesting fact-based cold data, available for you to learn from. For example, two NFC division foes have shown they could care less about winning in the preseason, instead they are interested in building the team and having it ready for the start of the regular season and often you can find out exactly what the game plan is by going to team websites. The squads that match the criteria are Dallas and Philadelphia, both of whom are 18-31 ATS as favorites over an extended period of time.

Week 1 - Know your Coaches

This is extremely important if you have a desire to have extra money BEFORE the regular season starts. Be assured all the oddsmakers know these numbers, it is your duty as well if you expect to profit. With Mike Shanahan in Washington, expect him to continue the same methods that have made him a great coach. As opposed to many head coaches, Shanahan has always placed a value on winning to set the right tone for his team where he has been in charge, his squads have covered over 63 percent of the time the first two weeks of the preseason.

Another important factor is first year coaches. This year we only have three taskmasters that are taking over new teams. Each has been a head coach at this level in the past and will want to establish how they will be running their programs. After going through grueling training camps, each will want to prove to his players that the work has been worth the trouble. Nothing pays off like winning. Historically, these coaches can bring a nice profit in contests where they don’t meet one another. Undoubtedly, these generals will want to bring in their type of players and it will be reminiscent of what legendary baseball manager Casey Stengel once said, “We’ll win soon, just not with these players.”

One last area to consider is coaches in peril. These fellows know their jobs are in jeopardy and have to deliver wins, even if it has to start in August. Among those that could be a good bet this month are Jack Del Rio in Jacksonville and Lovie Smith in Chicago. Both have the wolves howling at their door and early wins and a good camp would quell the noise, at least for the time being.

Week 2 - Be ready to pounce

This is one of the two weeks online football betting strategists can really take advantage of the lines and make large profits at online sports betting outlets. The most important factors this week are prior performance and motivation. These are largely tied together of which you can take advantage. Last season the Dallas Cowboys barely showed a pulse, let alone putting forth any effort and were humbled by Oakland of all teams 31-10 as two-point underdogs in the opener. This didn’t sit well with Wade Phillips and the coaching staff and they put Cowboys players thru the paces. Training camp is hard enough and the last thing any player wants this month is coaches hollering and screaming about effort. Dallas responded very positively and toppled Tennessee 30-10 as field goal favorites.

Likewise, just the opposite can occur as Tom Coughlin of the New York football Giants found out. In an unusually spirited opening contest, the Giants and Carolina went at it and New York won a hard fought game 24-17 as three-point faves. The very next week Coughlin’s club could do nothing right, especially on offense and were handled easily by Chicago 17-3.

Know this, Philadelphia is 10-1 ATS in week 2 and Dallas is 7-1 ATS.

Week 3 –Dress Rehearsal

This has become the most important week of the preseason, at least for coaches to get a real sense of where the team is and if they were on schedule. Starters will play about two-thirds of the game and a semblance of a game plan will be implemented. Many of the same principles still apply about motivation, with a few variations of note.

The coaches and players place additional importance on this week, thus giving a good showing does matter. In the preseason, situational handicapping has relevance, especially for teams losing by 10 or more points the week before. This is noteworthy, with back-ups playing and the games should be fairly evenly matched. Once again coaches will create further accountability through motivational and psychological tactics. In 2005, New England was humbled by the Saints in week 2, losing 37-27. In reading the Boston papers, Coach Belichick made it quite clear another defensive effort of that nature was not acceptable. The Patriots went to the thawed frozen tundra and laid a whipping on Green Bay 27-3.

How this works to your advantage is maybe the coach feels the team is coming along too fast and wants to dial it back. We all know head coaches are control freaks. They want to build you up to tear you down and vice versa. As mentioned in the preseason, these maniacal masters love to put the team thru grueling practices after a weak effort. Others might feel the club is peeking way to early and let them slack a bit after exceptional performance, while closely monitoring they don’t lose their edge. This is part of the other aspect of analyzing situations, teams off blowout wins or losses.

This is where knowing the personality of a head coach is so important. When Mike Holmgren was in charge, he was famous for taking his team on emotional roller-coaster in August, never letting them feel too good or bad about themselves. Super Bowl winning coach Sean Payton is a noted “go for the jugular” type and he served notice last season, as his team was ready and they were 3-0 SU and ATS, outscoring the opposing teams 100-28 before calling off the dogs.

Week 4 – Pick your spots and be ready for the regular season

The final week of the season is nothing more than final preparation for most teams trying only to avoid injury and making final cuts. The Indianapolis Colts are 2-8 ATS in their final preseason tilt, including five straight spread losses. Be cautious in your plays the last week. If you are having a winning preseason, a game or two that you really are sure of is worth the risk. If you are having a so-so or below average time in picking winners before the start of the regular season, save your money for what you care about. This is what you have been looking forward to anyways.

Final Thoughts

Take the time to review the box scores. Do not do this for the traditional reasons as you might believe. Looking at stats and trying to figure out your fantasy team has nothing to do with the preseason games. What this is for is future reference. This can lead to insights about any team’s depth. Every NFL team is going to have injuries. By reviewing the box scores this time of year, you might find a team that has built up a 17-0 or 20-3 leads with the first team players in two different games and ends up losing both contests in the second half. This could be a red flag that when this team has injuries during the season, the drop off will be precipitous. Most importantly, don’t overanalyze, follow the coaches of the 32 teams and have fun.

NFL Divisional Playoff Handicapping Tidbits

And now there are eight, teams that is, still vying for the NFL championship. Hopefully, the four Wildcard Round games treated you well. Either way, what happened last weekend is in the past; it’s time now to look ahead to the Divisional Round. Four more games are on tap, two on Saturday, and two on Sunday, with side, total, and other wagering opportunities beaconing. With that said, like last week, I am here to take a closer look at the recent betting history of the NFL Divisional Round Playoffs. Let’s get to it.

One of the things you need to consider before beginning your Divisional Round playoff handicapping is that the results of recent years have been downright alarming, absolutely dominated by road teams, not only at the betting window, but actually in who wins and moves on as well. In fact, the last 14 Divisional Round games have seen visiting clubs go 9-5 SU & 12-2 ATS. Pittsburgh (over San Diego) last January, and Green Bay (over Seattle) in ’07 are the only exceptions of home teams that have both won and covered their games. To consider how big of a change this is, from ’95 to ’01, home teams in the Divisional Round owned a record of 22-6 SU & 17-10-1 ATS. It seems that earning that first round bye in the postseason and being able to host this second round game has not proven advantageous at all. Indianapolis, San Diego, New Orleans, and Minnesota will look to change that this weekend.

With such distinctive trends to begin with, it’s a good bet that we can come up with even better information simply by digging deeper. Let’s do just that, by looking at the lines, totals, scores, matchups, and stats that should be a part of your normal handicapping routine anyway.

General Divisional Trends

I’ve already touched on the fact that road teams have covered 12 of the last 14 Divisional Round games in the NFL playoffs. If you go back much further, to ’93, you’d see that road teams own only a slight 34-32-2 ATS edge though. That means that recent developments have differed from the norm. Does it go back this season? That remains to be seen. Here are some other general handicapping tidbits you might find useful for the weekend:

*Teams with the edge against the line on the StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings after applying 3.5-points for home field advantage were 4-0 ATS in the ’09 Divisional Round.

*The extra day of rest has proven a hindrance for home teams when it comes to Divisional performance, as Saturday home teams are 5-3 SU & 3-5 ATS since ’05 while Sunday hosts have gone just 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS.

*In general, the Divisional Round has been a low scoring round, with the UNDER on the total going 11-6-1 in the last 18, producing 42.0 PPG on totals averaging 43.6.

*In the recent 14 game stretch of dominance by road teams in the Divisional Round, the nine road outright wins have been accompanied by seven UNDER’s on the total, while the five home team wins have gone OVER the total at a 4-0-1 rate. In other words, correlated parlays should read ROAD-UNDER or HOME-OVER.

*There have only been 11 inter-divisional games in this round over the last 17 years, with home teams owning a 7-4 SU & 5-5-1 ATS record in that span. These have been lower scoring games, with seven of the 11 going UNDER the total.

Trends by Seed Number

There have been some interesting performance observations when you consider the seed number of the team playing in a Divisional Round game. Take a look:

*The performance of the #1 seeds has been particularly troubling of late, as they have lost seven straight games ATS and are just 2-5 SU in that span. They are just 2-10 ATS dating back to ’04, after having gone 14-4 SU & ATS in the prior 18. The #2 seeds have been more reliable, going 2-2 ATS in the last two seasons, and 5-5 ATS since ’04.

*The #3 seeds are on a 6-2 ATS & 6-2 OVER run in ’03. #4 seeds are 6-2 UNDER in that same span and 4-4 ATS in their last eight Divisional Round games, but 3-1 ATS vs. the #1 in that span.

*Dating back to ’96, #5 seeds that have reached the Divisional Round have been exceptional bets, going 7-2 ATS (4-5 SU).

*Six straight #1 vs. #6 matchups in the Divisional Round have gone UNDER the total. As a sign of the new times, the #6 has swept the last three meetings, both SU & ATS, after losing the prior seven.

*There has been a distinct difference in total results dependent upon the seed number of the host recently. In the last seven seasons, #1 seeds are 11-2-1 UNDER the total, while #2 seeds have gone 9-5 OVER the total.

Line Range Trends

Lines in the Divisional Round have been chalk-heavy, with the average favorite laying 7.1 points since ’93. Furthermore, 35 of the 68 games have had a line of a TD or more and only once has there been a home underdog in that span. Take a look at these other line specific trends:

*Sizeable home favorites have not been a solid bet in the Divisional Round of late, as those laying a TD or more (7 pts) are just 6-5 SU & 3-8 ATS (27%) since ’04, including three straight outright losses.

*There have been four double-digit favorites in the last four years of the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Those teams are an ugly 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS.

*In Divisional Round games where the final pointspread closed at 5-points or less, the road team has been nearly automatic, going 8-7 SU & 11-3-1 ATS (79%) since ‘98. The UNDER is also 11-4 in those games.

*Bettors haven’t had nearly the success dealing with the opening lines in Divisional Playoff games as they did in the Wildcard Round. In fact, when betting action has moved the line one way or the other since ’93 in the Divisional Round, this “smart money” just 24-29 ATS (45%). What’s more, in 40 of the 54 games, bettors sided with the host team.

*The line movement numbers get downright ugly for bettors when you only consider recent years. Over the last six playoff years, line moves have only shown a 5-15 ATS (25%) record. In other words, you’d have been much better off fading the line move.

*Interestingly, in the Divisional Round playoff games since ’05, seven games have seen the opening line move by 1.5-points or more throughout the week. In those games, bettors have been wrong on the line move EVERY TIME (0-7 ATS).

Total Range Trends

As mentioned before, the majority of Divisional games have gone UNDER the total in recent years. Let’s see what else we can uncover regarding totals:

*Similarly to the Wildcard Round, extreme totals in Divisional Playoff games have produced mostly OVER games, while the moderately posted totals by oddsmakers have meant lower scoring games. Dating back to ’99, in games with totals posted at either less than 38 or more than 48, OVER the total is 14-6-1 (70%). In games inside that range, the UNDER has been the way to go, 16-6 (73%).

*The betting public has had a very good handle on totals in the Divisional Round, as since ’93, when incoming action has moved the total higher, OVER players have gone 14-8 (64%). When the total has been pushed lower throughout the week, UNDER bettors have gone 22-16 (58%). Combined, following the total move has netted a 60% chance of winning.

*The success of following the money on a total bet drops dramatically if the total move was 1.5-points or more throughout the week. In such cases since ’93, this “smart money” has gone 11-11 (50%).

Scoring Trends

Like the Wildcard Round, there are certain point thresholds that teams reach in the Divisional Round that greatly influence their chances of winning or losing.

*Home teams that fail to reach 20 points have a little better chance of winning in the Divisional Round than in the Wildcard Round according to recent history, having gone just 4-13 SU as compared to 1-13 SU since ’93. However, those teams have not covered a pointspread in that time, going 0-16-1 ATS.

*Those home teams that do reach and/or exceed the 20-point mark have gone 44-7 SU & 32-18-1 ATS in the Divisional Round since ’93. However, five of these outright losses have come since ’04, and the record in those games is just 12-5 SU & 7-10 ATS, as road team scoring has picked up.

*The frequency of road teams winning in the Divisional Round when they fail to reach 20 points has been one in eight games (5-35 SU & 13-25-2 ATS) over the last 17 years. If you recall the Wildcard Round stat on this, these same teams were just 1-31 SU & 1-30-1 ATS since ’93.

*Road teams that do make it to 20 points or higher are only 15-13 SU but 21-7 ATS in the Divisional Round since ’93. Recently though, or over the last nine years, they are 11-6 SU & 15-2 ATS, making this strategy one to consider as you analyze this weekend’s scoring potential.

Trends based upon Won-Lost Records

Strangely, there have 26 of 68 games in the last 17 years of the Divisional Playoffs that have matched teams with the same number of wins or the road team actually having won more games. Such situations have proven very good indicators that the road team was going to cover the pointspread, as they are 15-10-1 ATS. Since ’04, they are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS. Here are a couple of other trends concerning won-lost marks and the Divisional Round:

*All four of this year’s home teams in the Divisional Round have won 12 games or more in the regular season. From 1995-2003, such divisional hosts were 20-6 SU & 18-7-1 ATS in their first playoff game. Since however, they are just 11-10 SU & 6-15 ATS, including 3-7 SU & 1-9 ATS against a road team with 12 or more wins (incl. Wildcard win).

*This is typically the end of the line for road teams that won nine or fewer games in the regular season, as they are just 4-13 SU & 7-10 ATS in the Divisional Round since 93.

*Road teams that won 11 or more games in the regular season then added a victory in the Wildcard Round have proven very dangerous over the last six years in the Divisional Round. In that time span, such road teams are 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS. The only host to both win and cover against such a club was the 2004-05 Patriots, who beat Indy 20-3.

Trends based upon Statistical Traits

Going into Divisional playoff games, here are the trends concerning statistical edges. Keep in mind that these season stats DO include those obtained in the previous week’s Wildcard games.

*Teams with an edge in Offensive Points per Game are 39-27-2 ATS (59%) in the Divisional Round since ’93. However, since ’02, the effectiveness of this particular stat has waned, with a record of just 16-15-1 ATS (52%).

*Teams with an edge in Offensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are 25-25-2 (50%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ’96. Again though, over the last eight seasons, the team with the edge in this category has dropped to 14-17-1 (45%).

*The ability to run the football has proven more important in Divisional games than in the Wildcard Round of late, as since ’93, teams with an edge in Yards Per Rush are 35-31-1 ATS (53%). Over the last eight playoff seasons, that record climbs to 20-11-1 ATS (65%). Be sure to consider YPR this weekend.

*Teams that have demonstrated a greater ability to produce big plays through the air, or those averaging more Pass Yards per Attempt, are 41-25-2 ATS (62%) in the Divisional Round since ’93, the most definitive statistical edge we have uncovered in the playoffs thus far. However, the last five years have seen a dramatic decline to 6-14 ATS (30%) so be careful when applying PYA.

*Yards per Play used to be an effective predictor in Divisional Round, as teams with an edge in this key stat had gone 36-20-2 ATS (64%) prior to mid ‘07. Like the PYA stat though, recent results have turned dramatically, with only one of the last 10 Divisional Round teams with an edge in YPP having won & covered their game.

*Yards per Point also went through a stretch of great success as a predictor in Divisional Round, as teams with an edge in this key stat are 41-25-2 ATS (62%) overall since ’93. Like our other offensive indicators thus far though, it has turned of late, as evidenced by the 14-14 ATS (50%) record since ’03.

*Turnover Differential has meant very little in terms of predicting Divisional Round games since ’93, as teams with an edge in this stat are 30-36-2 ATS (45%). Little has changed of late either, with edge teams owning a 10-14 ATS (42%) record over the six seasons.

*To this point, we have uncovered very little of anything other than Yards Per Rush that has been consistent enough to provide a winning Divisional Round strategy using offensive statistics. Let’s move over to the defensive side of the ball.

*Teams with an edge in Defensive Points per Game are 29-37-2 (44%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ’93, so we aren’t off to a good start in our research. In fact, it gets even worse more recently, as better defensive teams in this stat are just 3-11 ATS (21%) in the L14.

*Teams with an edge in Defensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are 27-22-1 ATS (55%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ’96, a record much better than those with a PPG allowed edge. Recent findings show that teams with this edge are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS (75%) over the last two seasons.

*A previously demonstrated ability to stop the run on defense has proven very important in Divisional Round games, as since ’93, teams with an edge in Defensive Yards per Rush are 41-24-2 ATS (63%). Over the last seven playoff seasons, an edge in this stat has produced a phenomenal 22-6 ATS (79%) record. You might want to note that Indianapolis finished 19th in the NFL against the rush this season while San Diego was 24th & New Orleans was 27th.

*Teams better at stopping big plays through the air, or those allowing fewer Pass Yards per Attempt, are only 28-38-2 ATS (42%) in the Divisional Round since ’93, and 9-15 ATS (38%) over the last six seasons. Clearly, run stopping defenses have wreaked bigger havoc in the Divisional Round.

*When you combine the Yards per Rush allowed and Yards per Pass Attempt allowed, you get Yards per Play on defense. Teams with an edge in the Divisional Round in this stat are 35-31-2 ATS (53%) since ’93, but only 6-10 ATS (38%) over the last four seasons.

*Defensive Yards per Point has turned out to be an effective & consistent defensive predictor in Divisional Round, if used as a FADE, as teams with an edge in this stat are 25-41-2 ATS (38%) since ’93. The trend has held the same percentage over the last four seasons, 6-10 ATS.

*It’s evident from all of the above trends that the Divisional games have proven quite unpredictable if using nothing more than stats, especially when you compare it to the Wildcard Round.

*Since rushing stats have proven our best weapon, what about the scenario where a team has the edge in both Offensive and Defensive Yards per Rush in a Divisional matchup? Well, these teams are 20-9 ATS (69%) since ’93, and 17-0 ATS (100%) over the last 11 seasons. I think we just found our GOLDEN NUGGET!!!

Man, I love doing this! I am always astounded about the things we can find. Just think, in the Wildcard Round, it was most important to have shown the ability to score points and throw the football. Here, in the Divisional Round, the run game takes precedence. Any guesses on what it will be next week? We WILL find out when we’re back to look at Conference Championship Sunday! Good luck this weekend.

Written by Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.

Making it a December to remember

Somebody in this country has been less affected by the recession, as Lexus is still trotting out those car commercials encouraging those that have the financial means to stay above the mayhem and fork over the cash for a luxury car. While that might be out of most working stiffs price range, we as NFL sports bettors can still at least add to the nest egg when it comes down to the last three weeks of the NFL season. (Used the picture of Detroit since they fit two systems listed in this article this week)

One of the realities every sports bettor must face at the end of another season is the dreaded “this team has to win”. In wagering talk, if ever there was a situation set up for a person to be – trapped - it is following that line of thinking.

There is no doubt teams have to win to make the playoffs, however many characteristics can prevent them from doing so. Among them is pressure, not playing well at the end of the season, injuries or a care-free opponent who has nothing to lose. All of these end up being reasons for failure instead of success.

Instead of looking at situations that appear to be favorable, go instead with ones that are. December is a cold, cruel month, (as many of you in the northern part of the United States recently felt), yet there are circumstances that will warm your heart and heat up your wagering account with a little work and determination.

In December, Play On a home underdog when both teams scored 10 or fewer points in previous contest.

Reason: With each team off a less than satisfactory offense performance, the home team has the added benefit of playing before the home fans. The oddsmakers are also telling us the visiting team is the better club, thus we have a motivated team at home off a lousy offensive performance. (13-5 ATS L23Y)

In December, Play Against a home favorite of three or less when both teams are coming off a loss.

Reason: By now all the teams fighting for the playoffs are established. Any team working to play in the postseason would at least warrant a standard NFL home field advantage of three points. If not, the oddsmaker is suggesting the home team is not worthy of supporting the conventional figure associated with home teams and is likely beatable. Seems like a good spot to take the points and consider the money line on the visitor. (41-13-1 ATS L18Y)

In December, Play On a home team off a SU home win if they have at least one extra day of rest.

Reason: At this time of year, every player that has played a full campaign is beat-up and has lots of aches and pains. Being able to play consecutive home games is a real value and any additional rest vs. opponent that is also weary and having to travel is a substantial edge. (22-10-1 ATS L19Y)

In December, Play Against any away favorite that scored 28 or more points in last outing.

Reason: Following the logic here, the public tends to follow the results of the previous game instead of looking at a body of work and more specifically the last three or four games teams have played. Unless a team is an offensive juggernaut, scoring four or more touchdowns is a good day at the office. Place this team in the role of road chalk off a solid scoring game, especially if that is six or more points better than their season average and we have the numbers in our favor. (55-30 ATS L11Y and 15-6 ATS the last three years)

In the final four weeks of the season, play on a non-conference home team that won outright as an away underdog.

Reason: All victories accumulated at the end of the season are earned, especially on the road. Winning in the visiting uniforms is a real boost for the home team coming into next contest. The road team circumstances could be varied. Winning or losing a non-conference game may not affect standings, especially if they have a division game or two left on the schedule. Another factor is unfamiliarity, as these teams are meeting every four years and if the visiting squad has division encounter on tap, can the bettor be assured of top effort, unlikely. (38-16 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a non-conference home favorite off a division win of 14 or more points, in the last month of the season.

Reason: Similar to last situation, this system is about putting in a satisfying performance and building momentum. The home team did a number on division foe and non-conference games tend to be looser because teams not knowing opponents’ tendencies as much, due to not playing them as frequently. Backing the home favorite in this spot has been a sound investment. (12-4, ATS L15Y)

Play Against a double digit road favorite facing a division rival in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: No matter the disparity in talent, beating a division companion by 10 or more points on the road is difficult any time of the year. This is further enhanced since the oddsmakers are telling us the road team is likely in the playoff hunt and the home team is not. For the home underdog, this might be the last game on the schedule to really get fired up about and they will have the support of those in attendance and can take pride in potentially damaging their rival’s postseason plans. Pittsburgh and New Orleans were both victims in Week 14. (16-5-1 ATS L11Y)

Play On a non-division home underdog if they allowed 175 or more yards rushing in previous game in the last month of the year.

Reason: All coaches try and stay away from placing more emphasis on one game more than another, since the players understand the state of affairs they are dealing with. The head coach and the defensive coordinator are going to be scathing in their comments in the film room about their defense that was pushed around, seemingly from lack of effort and execution in last outing. After listening all week to coaches complain about performing with a sense of urgency, the reportedly inferior home dog plays at or beyond capabilities versus foe not used to facing them. (29-13 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a division home underdog off a home loss in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: With teams playing just six division games a season, it’s not hard to be motivated for a rivalry conflict, particularly if the public perception is the home squad is the lesser team and needs points to cover a spread. This position is further enhanced off a disappointing home loss that left a bad taste in the team’s collective mouths. A win over division partner is great mouthwash late in the year. Cleveland and Atlanta both covered this past week. (16-5 ATS, L20Y)

Monday, Monday still love that day

We came back with 2-1 NFL Sunday and were happy about it. The Top Trend is about tonight’s anticipated NFL matchup at 83.3 percent. The Best System is sizzling 87.9 percent in the NBA. The Free play is on the way and is college basketball really starting tonight. Good Luck

New Poll Question at bottom of the page

What I thought yesterday – Aaron Rodgers isn’t using his Cal education to avoid sacks. Tony Romo is using his Eastern Illinois education and is playing smarter football. The Cincinnati Bengals were more physical than Baltimore in completing sweep of Ravens. Laughing my *** off every time Jay Cutler fails. Is Arizona offense better when Anquan Bolden isn’t in the game, which means the Cardinals force the ball to Larry Fitzgerald and are more productive?

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Utah attempting 11 or less three point shots a game on the season, in November contests. This system is a real delight at 29-4, ATS, 87.9 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) The Denver Broncos are 10-2 ATS as home underdog, winning by almost three points per game.

Free Football Pick -3) Randy of the Left Coast Connection was 3-1 yesterday and 17-5 in the NFL the last month and likes Denver to pull the upset.

Paul Buck's Monday Night Magic in under Guarantee Picks. Need one more NFL Winner, it's the place to stop.

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Upon further review in the NFL

The New Orleans Saints have cemented who is the best team in the NFC and possibly in the NFL is the middle of October. The Saints look a lot different than when started 5-1 in 2006, coach Sean Payton’s first year. That team was coming off 3-13 season and caught the league by surprise with their new quarterback Drew Brees. The former San Diego signal caller had a HUGE chip his shoulder after being no longer wanted in San Diego.

Payton was like a new teacher out of college, full of ideas and idealism and wanted to let the world know he was an offensive guru. New Orleans went to the NFC championship before losing to Chicago. The following two seasons are what most people would have expected from the Saints at 7-9 and 8-8.

Starting back in August, this New Orleans team had a different look. They destroyed teams in the preseason and it continued right in the regular season. After blowing away the Giants 49-27, this club has a killer look. Yes, the Giants were playing subs in the secondary, but they turned off New York’s pass rush and went after their greatest weakness.

The Saints are 5-0 SU and ATS not just because of Brees, but because they have the No.9 defense and are fourth in rushing yardage. Brees and Payton have both grown up and so has New Orleans.

Baltimore made a spectacular comeback against Minnesota and should have won the game, but at least they covered the three for those on that side. While that was great news for Baltimore backers, a number of disturbing elements came out of that contest for the Ravens. After losing two consecutive games, Baltimore was flatter than a smashed crab cake and Minnesota jumped all over them 14-0. The Ravens secondary is well below average even with Ed Reed. While a NFL kicker should be expected to make a 44-yard field goal, once again, another team decides to go into a shell once there in range, instead of trying to get closer for an even shorter field goal attempt.

Could Philadelphia have looked any worse in losing to Oakland? For all the supposed genius of Andy Reid, how do you run 14 times against a Raiders defense that had allowed 182 yards rushing per game in previous four contests, especially in a close contest? DT Richard Seymour absolutely destroyed the Eagles offensive line by himself.

Remember all those big smiles and grins coach Rex Ryan had after 3-0 start. Those have been replaced by frowns with the Jets 3-3. His rookie Mark Sanchez took a step backwards in overtime loss to Buffalo, throwing five picks. Ryan’s mistake was placing too much faith in Sanchez. Every young quarterback is going to have ups and downs, which is why Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan were successful as first year quarterbacks; they were kept on short leach.

Green Bay won 26-0 over Detroit and made a few defensive adjustments like having Aaron Kampman rush the passer more and blitzing LB Clay Mathews, as both have a knack for creating pressure. What is still disturbing is Rodgers being sacked four times.

There is no other way to describe it, Tennessee quit on coach Jeff Fisher in 59-0 shellacking in snow-laden New England. Though Fisher prior to this season has gotten more out of available talent than any NFL coach, it seems his message after 14 years is ringing hallow. This might be a great opportunity for him to step away, do some broadcasting work and get batteries recharged for another opportunity.

Heard on the radio something that made sense about Josh McDaniels unlikely 6-0 SU and ATS start in Denver. He was quoted as saying what he learned most under Bill Belichick was there was a way to beat every single team. It was the head coach’s responsibility to figure it out, sell it to the assistant coaches and in turn have them put it together for the players in understandable manner. If you believe what McDaniels says, Denver took away Dallas running game, exploited New England secondary and found special teams’ weaknesses in San Diego, which all led to victories.

Study the numbers

The NFL that everyone loves returned this week, with decided underdogs Buffalo and Oakland winning outright, with favorites a mere 5-9 ATS. This change has helped the sportsbooks who have been being beaten on parlays and teasers with so many big favorites winning. Talked to a sportsbook manager on the Vegas Strip who conveyed they took a lot of action on Steelers-Packers parlay and came away a good-sized winner on that product. Underdogs are 17-11 the last two weeks, after sporting 9-21 ATS record the two weeks prior. NFL time travelers are still having issues, with Philadelphia the latest three time zone team to fall, making them 2-8 ATS this season.

NFL teams that have a turnover margin of three or more are 4-8 against the spread if they play the following week. Professional football squads that played after winning outright as a road underdog are 9-4 ATS. Teams that have scored or allowed 40 or more points are a combined 7-1 ATS if they play the next week.

Totals players who march like lemmings when bad weather is reported, received a severe shock on Tennessee and New England outcome, which was over before halftime for Under bettors.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror

It seems a little dull, at least at this time that Florida and Alabama are clearly the two best teams in the country and not much excitement stands in their way until they play in one BSC semifinal game again this year, referred to as the SEC Championship Game brought to by Dr. Pepper. (No money changed hands for product mention; it’s just how the announcers promote the game).

On Saturday afternoon, Alabama played a version of Bear Bryant football in smothering Ole Miss 22-3 as four point favorites. The Crimson Tide was effective enough against a very good Rebels defense (the score could have easily been 40-3) and moved the ball and played outstanding defense. Quarterback Jevan Snead looks like a not ready for primetime player and coach Houston Nutt will have to do serious damage control to save this season and his signal caller.

Later, Florida’s defense so thoroughly bottle up LSU on their home turf, they looked like they could stop the recession in conceding a measly 162 yards. Offensively, coach Urban Meyer was very cautious, having Tim Tebow play, but never exposing him to a lot of big hits. If you noticed, Tebow went down in piles more readily to protect himself.

Texas dropped to No.3 in the pools, but that is no big deal since they are the top team in the other quasi-bracket as long as they keep winning.

If I were an Iowa fan, I’d be very nervous about trip to Madison this week. Granted, the Hawkeyes have had success at Camp Randall; however, they have surrendered 49 total points the last two weeks and have given 145 or more yards on the ground in half their games this season. Bettors have taken Iowa from short favorite to 2.5-point underdog quickly.

Though the line didn’t move virtually all week, Connecticut was receiving a lot of love from handicappers in forums, based on their defensive play. Pittsburgh was a seven point favorite right up until game time and had a chance early to blow them out, but a dropped pass for touchdown and an overthrow for another by QB Bob Stull left the Panthers without points. Connecticut capitalized on Pittsburgh’s mishaps and built a 21-6. At that point, the Panthers went on the prowl and ended up with a 489-305 yards advantage. After coming back to tie the score at 21-21, Pitt was moving the ball effortlessly and had first and goal at the three and gave backers hope for a well-deserved push or win. Instead, they plowed the ball three times into the middle of the line and were all too pleased to kick game winning field goal. They have a game at Rutgers this Friday and the underdog is 6-1 ATS.

UCLA held Oregon in check with the Ducks using backup quarterback Nate Costa and led 3-0 at halftime, catching 3.5-points as home underdog. Well, faster than you can University of California, Los Angeles, Oregon opened the second half with kickoff return for touchdown, a Pick Six interception and engineered a 53-yard touchdown drive off another UCLA turnover in less than four minutes, rendering Bruins betting tickets useless.

Auburn looked liked paper Tigers as Arkansas had a superior offensive game plan and was shredded by the Razorbacks for 495 yards and 28 first downs. Arkansas contained the Tigers explosive offense for over 40 minutes before they had a few big plays against them in easy 44-23 whipping.

The SEC is very top heavy this season. Mississippi State and Vanderbilt both lost in non-conference action as favorites and Kentucky gave South Carolina fits in 28-26 cover. Georgia was destroyed by Tennessee, with the much maligned Jonathan Crompton having career game with four TD passes.


Study the numbers

This has been reported here for weeks and is deserves your attention. It is imperative to find the early numbers on totals in college football and if you have access to the up to the minute figures on Saturday’s, you have to start finding these. This season in college football, totals that have moved three or moves points in either direction have been correct 79-35-1, 69.2 percent. That is money waiting to be made and the oddsmakers haven’t been able to work it fast enough either as 25-9 (73.5 percent) record proves the last two weeks. If you don’t know where to find the earliest lines, send me email doug_isllc@yahoo.com.

Did you know CFB underdogs have yet to have a losing week this season? At 20-20 ATS opening week, they are 137-109-2, 55.7 percent. The last three weeks, dogs catching 10 or more points are 41-21, 66.1 percent.

In the NFL, after a 5-11 against the spread start, home dogs have started to bark the last couple of weeks with 7-3 ATS record. This seems to happen every year of late, mostly in the first half of the season, but teams traveling three time zones are 2-6 ATS thus far.

It is being widely discussed that oddsmakers have a real issue concerning the best teams playing the worst teams. How high a number do you place on teams like St. Louis, Oakland or Tampa Bay when playing one of the better NFL teams? This is bore-out in this simple method. The last two weeks, team’s over .500 playing against teams with a record below .500 are 8-3 ATS.

Good Luck this week!

Early Line Moves in Football

Next year 3Daily Winners expects to have a football newsletter, but in the meantime, we will offer Free inside information. When we say “inside information” we mean finding material not commonly found on other websites and blogs. In other words we had to figure it out. One popular and profitable segment I’ve followed for years is Early Line Moves.

Last week was improved across the board as I expected, not sensational, just steady. The college sides were 5-4 ATS, raising record to 12-15 on the year and totals (where many professional bettors hang out) were 7-3 on early action, taking that record to 14-9. Last week, there was no side action in the NFL, leaving the record at 3-2; however the totals were 2-1, for 2-4 start.

I’m all but certain next year I won’t count the first week in college or pros, since those numbers have too much exposure over time to all kinds of bettors.

College Sides
Northwestern -2 to +1.5
Rutgers -3 to Pick
Utah -11.5 to -14
Navy -26.5 to -30
Arizona -2.5 to +2

College Totals
Misso/Nev 58 to 62
Buff/Temple 49 to 45.5
TCU/Clem 48 to 44
UAB/Tex A&M 60 to 63
USM/Kansas 57 to 61
ASU/ Geor 56 to 51
Cal/Oreg 60 to 56
USF/Flor. St. 54 to 50
N.D./Purdue 57 to 60

NFL Sides
Green Bay -8.5 to -6.5
San Diego -7.5 to -5.5
Pittsburgh -6 to -3.5
Arizona Pick to -2.5

NFL Totals
SF/Minn 42 to 40
Car/Dall 45 to 47.5

The Day after Monday Action

Even though I thought the Top Trend was lame based on the spreads. the outcomes were certainly a surprise. I’m not actually going to count that in the record, just call the best I could find yesterday. I will count today’s Trend which has a winning margin of three runs! Today’s Best System is special and 12-0 this season. The Free Pick was a loser Monday, thus we turn to Ken who’s doing quite well the last few days. Good Luck

What I learned today: The Patriots' win over the Bills on Monday was the first in team history in which New England trailed by 11 or more points with less than 2 1/2 minutes to play. Ben Watson became the first player since 1999 to catch two touchdown passes in the final 2:06 of a game which his team won, after his team was trailing by at least 10 points at the time of the first TD catch. Shane Matthews and Curtis Conway combined on two TD passes in the final 1:48 of a Bears' comeback win over the Saints on October 3, 1999.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like Pittsburgh, who can’t hit a lick batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against a hot starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This isn’t your everyday system at 70-5, 93.3 percent the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Roy Oswalt and the Astros are 44-7 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game in the second half of the season, winning by THREE runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ken of the LCC is 14-4 in all sports since Saturday (6-0 in MLB) and views Tampa Bay trumping Baltimore.

Check out Guaranteed Football Picks for this next week. We were 3-0 in the NFL and Paul Buck was 7-4 for the entire week.

The Platinum Sheet doing big numbers in New York area with satisfied customers.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Looking ahead in the Rearview Mirror

On Saturday, it’s obvious the talent level at Wisconsin has dropped. Former coach and now AD Barry Alvarez locked up most every top recruits in the state of Wisconsin and several very good ones in Iowa and certain pockets of Illinois. Though Barry hand-picked Bret Bielema as his successor, the quality of players on the Madison campus is not the same and Fresno State was superior at several skill positions. The Bulldogs would have beaten the Badgers except for 3-0 turnover margin. Wisky’s first three Big Ten games are Michigan State, at Minnesota and at Ohio State, looking at 1-2 at best.

Speaking of the Spartans, losing at home to Central Michigan! That makes them 1-8-1 ATS before playing Notre Dame, however they have won and covered six straight in South Bend, five as underdogs.

It’s always from adversity we learn about ourselves and have self-examination. After not being able to hold Michigan out of the end zone in its final drive, more than one Notre Dame player talked about lousy practices early in the week, too many players feeling too good about themselves, which they expressed in several news outlets as for the real reason for losing. Notre Dame fans can talk about being jobbed by a few shaky calls, however if you cannot stop opponent from going 57 yards with a little over two minutes in the game, are you really a BCS team? If the Irish are to get back into BCS conversations, that means one loss at best the rest of the way and it can’t be against USC.

The opposite side of the Notre Dame crumble was USC. It’s supposed four NFL offensive linemen were either nullified or outplayed for over three quarters by Ohio State’s defense, until they bulled their necks and carried the team on 14-play, 86-yard drive for the winning score. Freshman sensation QB Matt Barkley was at the controls and he put it best about what separates USC. "We're Trojans. That's what we do," Barkley said. They travel north to see some of their old coaches at Washington and are only 1-6 ATS on the back end of two-game road trip.

It doesn’t matter if Oklahoma State was flat after beating Georgia in its opener, the Houston Cougars can play and have big time athletes. The Cougars led 24-7 at the half and were overwhelmed in the third quarter by the Cowboys 21-0, to fall behind 28-24. Most non-BCS schools would have caved in, but not Houston, they out-scored Okie State 21-7 in the final 15 minutes and gained 512 yards of total offense. QB Case Keenum is legit and Houston has speed all over the field. After covering the 16.5-point spread with ease in Stillwater, Houston has a week off before hosting another Big 12 team in Texas Tech. Don’t be shocked by total around 80.
So much for Jonathan Crompton of Tennessee maturing and being more under control after 13 for 26 performance, that totaled 136 passing yards and three interceptions in 19-15 home loss to UCLA. Crompton found out Bruins players were JUST a touch more talented than those from Western Kentucky. Nothing like having confidence heading to Gainesville.

I believe this was a first for me, literally officially losing a football wager 17 minutes and 29 seconds into a game. Everything pointed to another low-scoring South Carolina and Georgia game, until they started playing. Holding a ticket that said UNDER 40, the Bulldogs kicked a 50-yard field goal to make the score 24-17 Georgia, with 12:29 left in the second quarter. OUCH!

Time for Colorado’s Dan Hawkins to update the old resume after another loathsome performance by his Buffalos team at Akron. I’d be thinking Monster.com ahead of the Ladders.com website right now however.

Upon further review in the NFL

Denver and Cincinnati’s offenses looked fairly uncertain until the final minutes. After bottling up the Bengals the entire game with aggressive blitz packages and man coverage, the Broncos go zone, rush either three or four and Carson Palmer led Cincy down the field for looked like the winning score. Denver got lucky bounce probably of the year they needed for the 12-7 upset win and the wagering public and many Hilton Contest contestants took a bath on the Bengals.

Is Jake Delhomme done? It sure looks that way since teams are going to stack the line of scrimmage forcing him to throw. We’ll see what happens with Donovan McNabb, but you can’t help but be impressed with Philadelphia’s skill players and their team speed.

Tony Romo might have had career yardage passing day, however don’t go gaga. In the first half, he missed several open receivers and benefitted immensely from Tampa Bay’s secondary confused with new system, as much as his own skill.

It’s making more sense all the time why Matt Schaub was never a threat to be starting quarterback in Atlanta before being traded to Houston. Nice work Mark Sanchez.

A hugely popular play Sunday was San Francisco with the points and on the money line. Arizona had shown nothing in the preseason in losing four times and the Niners were prepared mentally for the challenge. Though QB Shaun Hill was intimidated by the Cardinals pass rush for over three quarters, the line buckled down late and Hill led San Fran to outright upset. The impression one has listening to comments from Cards players after the game, this team has acted like they were 13-3 and lost in the Super Bowl, not 9-7. Next is dreaded three time-zone flight to Jacksonville for early start for the Redbirds.

The Giants really controlled Washington and though they got back-doored on the spread, New York has the appearance of a team that should only improve.

Millions of sports bettors were held hostage by Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy’s decision to go for two points after scoring go-head touchdown over Chicago late in the game. This gave the Packers a 19-15 lead and the vast majority of bettors had Green Bay at -4.5 or less. In typical coach fear, McCarthy decides to go for two points trying to give his team a six-point lead, on the rare chance the Bears come back and score and miss the extra point. How rare you ask, at NFL.com, the top 39 kickers last year missed six of 1,176 extra points. That is a success rate of 99.489. Your team just scored late in the game to take the lead and grasp the momentum and you’re willing to give your opponent a reason for hope by stopping two-point attempt for an edge of over a half of one percent? Not smart decision-making unless you are from the Jim Carrey school of math deduction, from the “Dumb and Dumber” movie, with the classic line, “so I still have a chance?”

Study the numbers

In college football, favorites took one in the mustache (Rece Davis reference) with 21-24-1 ATS record. Though all games are not wagered equally, the Totals were split right down the middle in games played at 23 apiece. Double digit favorites were 12-14-1 ATS, however road favorites of 10 to 24 points were 5-0 against the number. Home underdogs were decent 10-7 ATS.

Last week only four games moved three points or more from opening number until closing on the sides and they were 2-2 ATS. Nonetheless, this may be worth following as totals that had the same movement cashed 17 of 23, following the money.

In the NFL, favorites were 8-8 ATS, with the Total dead even at 8-8. Favorites of a touchdown or more were 3-2 ATS and home underdogs were a 1-3 against the number.

Not your ordinary sports handicapper

Kevin O’Neill operates Strategic Sports Publishing in Atlanta, offering publications and services to those interested in sports handicapping and wagering. Kevin has published books that are intelligently written and designed for the sports bettor who has thirst for knowledge and genuinely wants to be a better sports player. Kevin is well-respected within the industry, not being a shameless self-promoter, rather, building customers and loyalty through hard work and delivering useful winning information. Kevin’s accomplishments include a 56 percent college football record of the past six years, several Top 5 finishes with The Sports Monitor and he has an always interesting reading website called Realworldsports.com.

Here is an interview with one the best in the business.


Doug Upstone: You have long been one of the most successful sports handicappers in the industry, what methods have allowed you to stay on top?

Kevin O’Neill: That's kind of you to say, Doug. I think the most important "method" is not being beholden to a single method. Different forms of analysis will have value for a while and most will come around to being properly reflected in the marketplace, which depletes their value. While it's important to have a good defense, a balanced offense, and be well-coached, you have to look for changes in the sports that you handicap. For instance, several years ago I would have said that the running game (both offensively and defensively) is a lot more important than the passing game in handicapping matchups, even in the NFL. There's no way you can make that statement today. Things are always changing in every sport, and you have stay ahead of the curve.

DU: What in your background led you to doing this kind of work?

KO: As a kid I was a sports fan, and I liked statistics. I used to bet small amounts with a friend and we would ride our bikes down to the barber shop every week to play a dollar parlay card. I realized that I had a good feel for it. So I'd always bet on sports, but I didn't intend to get in the business. After publishing a couple of articles on sports betting in the early-90's I was encouraged to self-publish a little book on football betting in 1996. It sold a surprising number of copies pretty quickly and people really seemed to like it. All of the sudden people were writing to me and asking me questions, asking me if I sold picks, etc. So being in the business is kind of a happy accident. It just happened organically from people liking my work. I was also helped by several people to get exposure. People like Tim Trushel, Jeff Nelson, Marc Lawrence, and the late, great Mike Lee all were interested in what I was doing and supported me. Some of the early online guys like Oddswiz.com and Heath Boutwel helped me out as well.

DU: You recently had another Gambler's Boot Camp; can you explain how a sports bettor could value from attending one of these?

KO: I've known Fezzik, the pro sports bettor who won the Hilton contest last year, for a number of years and every time I'm out in Vegas we would get together for dinner. I found myself writing down a couple of things after every meeting and I think he benefited from some stuff I would share as well. I thought it would be a good opportunity to teach a small group of people about how to pursue the handicapping and wagering process at a pretty high level. He didn't want to do it and I hadn't really thought much more about it but then he called me out of the blue this year and was suddenly amenable to it. It's been a great experience, we get some pretty sharp attendees and some other guys who know a decent amount but are really eager to learn. It's a good process to tell what you do and then have to explain why it is done that way. We just did one and the preparation for it really gave me a head start on this upcoming football season, both in handicapping and refining some of my wagering techniques.

DU: Kevin, you have written three books related to sports wagering, the latest - Real World Sports Betting: How Real People Make Money in a Global Sports Marketplace. Without giving away all the juicy details- please explain how this book would be valuable to the sports bettor?

KO: I think if you're interested in a subject, you really need to be trying to learn from people who know a little bit more about it. I'm proud that from what people tell me, the beginner and intermediate guy learns a lot from my books, while people who bet for a living will tell me that there's usually a nugget or two in there for them, even if they're experienced and have a high level of expertise. I've actually got a juicy -if I can steal your word- little ebook coming out this fall that I think people would like and if they get on my mailing list at http://www.footballannual.com/ they can get it at no charge.

DU: You publish a newsletter called the Maximum Profit Football Weekly, what makes "The Max" different in the marketplace?

KO: I think what really differentiates it is that it stands on its own as a valuable product. It's not just a vehicle to sell picks, and in fact, there's far less promotional content than other newsletters. I've also got some pretty serious contributors in Dave Fobare, Erik Scheponik, and Matty Baiungo who do a very good job and give people some real food for thought.

DU: Kevin, I also know you write an article for the Marc Lawrence’s Playbook Yearbook, where you pick the conference and division winners for college football. I’ve always liked your “Spotlight Team” previews from each conference. The two most interesting one’s to me were Illinois and San Jose State this upcoming season, can you share your thoughts.

KO: Years ago Marc asked me to do those for the annual magazine, and the process helps me get ahead of the season. I’ve always enjoyed sitting down and doing research early on teams, which helps me formulate ideas on teams for the upcoming season.

Illinois is not a strong defensive group, with the secondary likely the biggest problem. But some of those guys were big recruits, so they may develop. But Ron Zook has a ton of firepower offensively. Quarterback Juice Williams is back for senior year and he’ll be throwing to talented wide receivers like Arrelious Benn. Zook brought in Mike Schultz from TCU to be new offensive coordinator and Schultz has stated he wants offense to play fast, which is, of course, what every coach in America is saying right now. Illinois has talent on defense; it’s just a question can they step up. If not, it could be shootout after shootout for the Illini, particularly if they keep their promise about a new pace on offense.

San Jose State has an outstanding coach in Dick Tomey. After starting 1-8 with a dormant program in 2005, Tomey is 20-17 and 21-14-1 against the spread since. He has 14 returning starters, the most experienced club he’s had. San Jose State should get toughened up playing at USC and home against Utah, which should have them ready for conference play.

DU: Besides Florida, Texas, Oklahoma and USC, any other teams you see that could play for the BCS title?

KO: Conceivably a team from the ACC could be undefeated if the conference comes up really weak. If Virginia Tech finds some offense and their defense is good, they could such a team, though I expect them to lose to Alabama this week. Georgia Tech gets Clemson, Virgina Tech, and Clemson at home and are ridiculously tough to defend. If Ohio State can take advantage of the true freshman QB at USC they could be in the mix, but everyone’s tired of seeing them get whipped up on in the champion game. But I’m reaching with some of those teams, because I do agree with the premise of your question, the difference between the top four teams in the polls and the rest of teams’ seems to be a huge gap.

DU: In the NFL, Bill Belichick, Tom Coughlin and John Fox teams have been great plays on the road, any reason to think that won’t continue?

KO: It seems like the best coaches in all of sports all do well on the road. Andy Reid and Philadelphia is another team that fits over the years. One possible explanation is everyone knows these are the best coaches and there teams tend to be overvalued at home, making it difficult for them to cover point spreads at home. It wouldn’t surprise me if these teams and coaches are still covering on the road this upcoming season.

DU: What does Kevin do for fun?

KO: My answer would have been a lot different a few years ago, but right now I just love doing stuff with my kids.

DU: What is your favorite book or movie that you read or seen that left impression on you?

KO:"It's a Wonderful Life" is my favorite movie, because Jimmy Stewart helps me to remember my dad. It also reminds me of the power we have to touch those around us. So it's kind of for personal reasons, but it's also a lot less corny than people think. He goes to some pretty dark places before the people who care about him pull him back out.

As far as reading goes, I read a ton for work but try to work in some investment books, simply to get a feel for how top traders (who are like bettors) and analysts (who are like handicappers) approach their work. I also like the international thriller genre and I read a little theology as well. I've got a bunch of biographies stacked up that I'm sure I won't touch until we're done with football and basketball.

DU: I notice it seems you have low-key presence for someone who has been as successful as yourself, why this path?

K.O: It seems like the people in this business who are constantly throwing a parade for themselves really don't fare all that well when it comes to the bottom line results for their customers. But I'm also able to do so due to the structure of my business and the tremendous loyalty of my customers. You can't buy my picks online, and you can't buy my service for a day or a week, you have to be a member of my service. So I enjoy the luxury of not having to get up in the morning and have to come up with some game to sell on the internet. Being able to just do the work for my customers is a much better way to spend time than trying to remember if I've had my Conference USA Game of the Month yet this month and then try to write copy that will out-hype all the other guys on the web sites. When your focus is on the results for your customers, a daily marketing routine really gets in the way. I don’t envy the guys who have to do that every morning.

DU: What is one key aspect most football bettors miss?

KO: Getting the best possible numbers and arranging to play for reduced juice. For a guy betting $25 to $50 a game, it might not be worth it to shop around for the best lines and pick up a few extra net units a year. For someone who wagers to win beyond just the entertainment value, they should be much more focused on getting the right numbers. This could searching for lower juice, betting earlier to have better line value or taking advantage of sportsbook promotions to maximize money outlay.

In fact, I recently had conversation with OddsWiz about breaking down the variables in looking at -105 vs.-110 and what it could mean in long term money saved on sports betting. The math is pretty staggering over the long run. I’ll probably do something about that on RealWorldSports.com sometime soon.

Having a slow, unsophisticated local guy isn’t the worst thing in the world, but those types are harder to find these days.

DU: Kevin, what is one piece of sound advice you would pass along to any sports bettor?

KO: Develop a coherent strategy. That could mean focusing on an individual sport or conference with a given sport. For most sports bettors, they have jobs and they try to shot-gun analyze every game on the board in college and pro football, it is very difficult to do. If you really want to become an expert, I would specialize. I find the best people in this business are specialists, not generalists.

I’m a specialist myself. I focus on college and pro football and college basketball and the NBA. I do this full-time. A person with limited time should focus on specific area, possibly like where they live. I’m in Atlanta, so the SEC and ACC and maybe even the Sun Belt are natural areas. Because of the internet, you can have the same fan experience no matter where you live. Someone may be transferred to Atlanta from the West Coast and could still be a Pac-10 expert if they wanted. Biggest recommendation for those with time that is more limited than mine, be a specialist.

DU: Great insights and having followed your career from a distance, you’ve delivered the goods as expected. Thanks for your time and good luck this football season.

KO: Thoroughly enjoyed it, Doug. Keep up the good work.

Wagering on the Numbers Game

In order to win at sports betting, you have to be able to identity situations quickly. Most people assume every oddsmaker knows every aspect of a certain game, which talking with professional sports bettors just isn’t true. Most regular bettors have no idea the wealth of information available to them and this is where we can come in and help also.

It’s nearly impossible to make sound judgments about the NFL Preseason football; however that doesn’t take away from the enjoyment of considering the possibilities. After two weeks, favorites are 23-10 SU and 17-14-2 against the spread. Lines moves on side action of 1.5 or more points towards a particular team are 6-3 ATS.

The oddmakers have been right on the nose breaking down totals, with the OVER 17-16. What is interesting to note is totals that settled at 34.5 points or higher are 13-8 UNDER thus far. That means totals of 34 or fewer points are outstanding 9-3 OVER. Totals moves of two points or more in either direction are putrid 2-8 following the number.

Annually in the preseason, a very solid wager is to Play On teams that have lost by 10 or more points. It doesn’t win all the time, but is 5-1 SU and ATS to start this year. Coaches ride the players hard after such a loss, even in August. Because they have more players in camp, the injury factor is less an issue to key players as compared to the regular season and they do more hitting during intense practices. For week 3 consider - Tennessee, Detroit, Carolina, Houston, Buffalo, Arizona and Denver as all possible plays off a significant loss.

The baseball pennant races are really heating up and this is a good time to think about what teams have to do the rest of the way and are they good wagers the rest of the season?

The Boston Red Sox trail the New York Yankees by six games in the loss column. (I prefer to use this since all teams are scheduled to play 162 games) If the Yankees continue to play about the same pace, they should win 101 games this season. That would mean the Red Sox would have to finish the season 30-8 just to tie their hated rival, which seems unlikely. Boston will be favored in every home game the rest of the year unless maybe a bad pitching matchup against Roy Halladay of Toronto or against the Los Angeles Angels. They are probably better served to get the team healthy and playing their best baseball capturing the wild card.

Detroit has 21 of remaining 36 games at home, where they are spectacular 40-20 (+12.4 units). Their most challenging games will be home and home with Tampa Bay. Otherwise, it’s up to the Tigers to take care of business, playing their two closest competitors Chicago and Minnesota, 13 times in their last 16 games, including the last seven at Comerica Park. It’s Detroit’s division to lose.

The Los Angeles Angels might have the second best record in baseball, yet are not a sure thing to win the division, five games ahead of Texas. The Angels should benefit playing 21 of last 38 at the Big A in Anaheim, however the pitching has to have manager Mike Scioscia popping Tums like most playing chewing sunflowers seeds. The Halos have baseball’s best offense and they need to, since only Kansas City, Cleveland, Baltimore and Washington allow more runs per game. The Angels have mid-September road trip to Boston and Texas and return home to face the Yankees and four more games with the Rangers, whom they are 3-9 against.

Do the Chicago Cubs have any chance trailing the St. Louis by seven in the loss column? It’s remote, but the window isn’t completely closed. These NL Central rivals will meet one last time for three game series on September 18. If the Cardinals maintain the same pace they are at, they should win 12 of next 21. (As of Tuesday night) That would mean the Cubs would have to win 17 of 23 to be within three games when the series starts. Though it sounds nearly impossible, the North Siders play teams worse than themselves like Washington, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and the Mets and comparable teams like Houston, Milwaukee and the White Sox (make-up game). The task is made further difficult having only two open dates remaining compared to the Cardinals five.

Nothing to report on the Philadelphia Phillies unless they turn into the New York Mets of the past few seasons and totally collapse.

The Colorado Rockies are in playoff position and could still win the NL West, playing host 21 of last 36 ballgames at Coors Field. They are playing the front-running Dodgers right now and have six games remaining at San Francisco. They would love to have three meaningful games at Dodger Stadium the last weekend of the regular season for the division crown.

Los Angeles’ immediate goal is to build lead over Colorado to no less than four games when they leave town Thursday. If they would manage to do so, they quite literally could be favored in almost every game the rest of the year. The only teams they will face with winning records are San Francisco (home and home series) and the final three encounters versus the Rockies.

San Francisco still has a shot at the wild card, but they will have to win five of six or more at AT&T Park against the Rockies to give themselves a chance. The task might be too overwhelming, still having to take on the Dodgers six times, at Philadelphia for three and hosting the Cubs four times.

Wagering on the NFL is about uncovering edges

For sports bettors, there is no greater challenge than trying to beat the oddsmakers in wagering on professional football. This on going battle is reminiscent of golf, though you might have great days and sometimes outstanding years, you never really beat the game, it’s more of a survival. The sharpest minds are always on the prowl seeking ways to profit against the untamed beast, knowing full well what works today could be as meaningless as Week 1 stats at the end of the season.

This process is like being an archeologist, you keep digging, and often, no matter how pointless it seems, you’ll come across something when you least expect it, something that pays dividends immediately and down the road.

I ended up spending a great deal of time searching for different winning information and like the previously mentioned archeologist, came up empty more than once, despite what were believed to be solid fundamental principles, applying to making money betting the NFL.

The methodology was to pick a category and review the top and bottom aspects of each one. Ideally, hitting the bomb would be fantastic, however, realistically, moving the chains would work just fine, as long as it scored in the end.

One element that seemed to make sense was time of possession. If a team has the ball and scores enough points within the given time they have the ball, they place added pressure on the opposing team to match scores. Many analysts and play-by-play announcers are quick to point out T.O.P. is useless in a given game, when say turnovers or quick strikes are involved in their respective contest they are broadcasting. While this certainly happens, too often this is taken as factual material, with little substance behind it other than personal opinion for the telecast they are covering.

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NFL quarterback controversy’s

Competition is healthy right? When someone has to compete, they tend to extend more effort and become better at what they do. But what happens when say two mediocre people go head to head? Does it really benefit a company or organization having to pick the best of an average pairing? And what about the sports bettor, he’s left to analyze the merits of mediocrity.

In the NFL, this happens a lot. The most telling position is under center with the quarterback. In studying the list of 32 NFL teams, it is good business to find the quarterback situations that are up for grabs and give strong consideration to playing Under on futures wagers for team totals.

Why you ask, it allows the old professional football proverb – If you have more than one quarterback, you have none.

The Oakland Raiders drafted JaMarcus Russell No.1 two years ago and to call his progress S L O W would be doing injustice to the word itself. Talent-wise the former LSU quarterback can make all the throws, however work habits, dedication, decision-making and staying in shape were all questions marks when he was drafted and remain today. The Oakland camp is so unsure if he is the right person for the job, they’ve brought in 39-year old Jeff Garcia.

Reports have the Raiders organization thinking Russell can learn from Garcia’s work ethic and understand what it takes to play in this league. One problem, Garcia is a curmudgeon, he has no interest in developing Russell, he wants to be the starting quarterback. If Garcia believes he has earned the job in camp (which he always does) and if coach Tom Cable (with Al Davis calling every 10 seconds) decides Russell is his guy to start the season, Garcia’s past suggests a malcontent who isn’t afraid to speak his mind. This sets up combustible situation for a franchise who makes the Kardashian’s seem normal. Sportsbook.com has Da Raaaiders at 5.5 for season wins, but if Russell fails or Garcia starts seeing the ghosts of linemen chasing him like last season, they will fall short of that total in 2009.

New Tampa Bay head coach Raheem Morris was a big fan Josh Freeman at Kansas State and picked him in first round as long term quarterback solution. While most experts considered Freeman a project, he quickly moved up in the eyes of those in the Buccaneers organization with sharp workouts in mini-camps and OTA’s. Freeman was helped significantly competing with Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich.

Morris can’t be milquetoast in making a decision. His options are more limited than he believes and nobody thinks Freeman is as prepared as Matt Ryan for quarterback duty to start the season. The smart thing to do is start McCown and let Freeman learn and make change at midseason if necessary, with veteran Leftwich in the bullpen. Oddsmakers have pegged the Bucs for 6.5 wins after two nine win campaigns, which makes good sense.

Sweeping changes were made in Cleveland, nevertheless, sports talk radio and Browns blogs are still in debate who should be starting quarterback, Derrick Anderson or Brady Quinn. New head man Eric Mangini’s first true decision as coach will be picking one of the two. No matter who he chooses, a large bucketful of support will be for the player that lost, especially if the winner fails to live up to expectations.

The real issue here is ability. Quinn is local guy, but does not possess strong arm and accuracy isn’t his strong point. He can pick up first downs with his legs and likes to throw to tight end in tough spots. His true value is incomplete due to lack of playing and injury. Anderson is neither as good as he played in 2007 nor as awful as he looked last season. He’s like a hot fudge sundae, hot and cold, and definitely turnover-prone. Mangini needs to take a stand with one and live with it, especially in first season as coach and worry about the future later. Bettors have to do the same with Browns listed at 6.5 wins for 2009.

Of course the craziest quarterback controversy isn’t even one and might not ever be one, yet has the juiciest story. Brett Favre will be a Minnesota Viking if his arm is sound and Sage Rosenfels will wonder how he was blindsided. Even more so than Garcia, Favre isn’t putting on a purple and white uniform to wear a headset. He signs; he expects to start, even if he plays the “I just want a chance to compete” card. Except for 2007, Favre has seen a noticeable deterioration in his skill to throw the medium-deep pass (unless it’s a slant) or long pass over the last four years.

Rosenfels sagged as starter for Houston last season, being too much a risk-taker when not needed. Tarvais Jackson has had his chances and fumbled his opportunities to take the Vikings-mantle by the horns and will have to move on to have real shot at starting again. Though Minnesota fans are mildly excited about Favre coming after seeing him beat their team all these years, be careful for what you wish with a quarterback who turns 40 in October. Minnesota total of nine wins could go south if No. 4 fails to impress.

Several other teams don’t have specific issues at the field general position; however they do not have answers necessarily.

Is Trent Edwards really what Buffalo needs at quarterback? He played the role of Indian-giver in 2008. He made the coaches very comfortable in the first half of the season making him the starter and gave it all back with a repulsive second half. Terrell Owens can help, if Edwards can hit the target. Are the Bills capable of beating 7.5 wins set by oddsmakers, after a trio of seven win seasons?

Also in the AFC East, the Jets have to decide on Kellen Clemens, who has never really impressed or draft pick Mark Sanchez to beat a spot of seven wins.

Tennessee has total of nine W’s set on them. Can Kerry Collins continue to be a winner and if not, is Vince Young ready to resume career and become whom the Titans originally believed they had.

Matt Hasselbeck is the starter in Seattle and he’s become increasingly more injury-prone with advancing age. Will new coach Jim Mora have quick hook if Hasselbeck flounders and go with more athletic Seneca Wallace as Seahawks look to reclaim NFC West?

Shaun Hill has 7-3 record as San Francisco starter the last two years, which he earned in part because he had a better feel for Mike Martz offense. That offense has been scrapped with his departure. Hill is tough, with strong pocket presence and a good decision-maker. Word out of the Bay Area is he has teammates respect, but the 2005 top selection Alex Smith is hell-bent on proving he’s not a bust. Smith took a huge pay cut to stay with Niners (obviously nobody called) and believes his mended wing and more traditional offense is better suited to have him be leader of 49ers and pass seven win total placed on them.

With this much acrimony floating around this many different NFL teams, it is hard to make a case any of the teams are worthy of an Over play before the season starts.

Early Football Line Moves

For the Early Line Moves, we seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights numbers to see what the so-called Line Movers do. Last week in college football these plays were ordinary 3-3 on the sides and 3-5 in college totals. This makes season record 45-30-2, 60 percent on sides and 32-23, 58.1 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, they were 1-0 on sides bringing the record to 12-9, 57.1 percent. On the Totals they were quality 2-1 (11-3-1 the last month) making the updated figure 17-11-1, 60.7 percent. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.

College Sides
TCU +1 to -2 Lost
Nevada +2 to -1 Winner
Duke -5.5 to -3.5
South Carolina -11 to -13
Boise State -31.5 to -34
Oklahoma -25 to -27.5
Nebraska +2 to -1
Texas -24 to -27
USC -18.5 to -21

College Totals
Pur/Mich St. 49 to 50
Illini/W. Mich 63 to 60
N.C. State/Duke 47 to 49
OK St./TT 73.5 to 69
Army/Rice 61 to 58
ISU/Colo 53 to 50
K-State/Misso 74 to 70
Kan/Neb 69 to 64
OSU/UCLA 52.5 to 49
Bay/Tex 66 to 62.5
Ark St/FIU 51 to 48

NFL Sides
Balt -2 to Pick

NFL Totals
GB/Minn 48 to 46
NYG/Phil 45 to 43.5

Not just another Manic Money

Good bounce back effort on Sunday. The System and the Trend plays were easy Winners and we are going to give Kendall some slack on his Carolina pick, since it officially lost, he emailed copy of betting ticket proving he had a push. One the day he was 2-1-1, raising his record to 28-6-1 betting the NFL. Guessing the recession hasn’t hurt him to bad. On a personal note, consider myself very lucky yesterday. Not a big parlay player and wouldn’t recommend very often. I actually like New England and Baltimore yesterday, but when the lines shot up to -9, got off them. Instead took them on the money line with Dallas and Tulsa against the spread. Thanks to unbelievable 35-0 second half by Tulsa, hit the four-teamer. Sometimes you just get lucky.

Today we have System pertaining to the presumably good Monday night matchup, which is 81.2 percent. We turn to the world of hockey for today’s Top Trend. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road teams like the Indianapolis Colts who are off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, in weeks 5 through 9. This sharp system is 26-6 ATS, 81.2 percent, including picking up a winner earlier this season.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Minnesota Wild has taken 11 of last 14 games against Chicago.

Free Football Selection -3) Somewhat surprisingly, nearly every member of the Left Coast Connection is on tonight's NFL game. What is equally surprising, the action is nearly split right down the middle, which has seldom happens on almost any game. Everyone is on the Phillies and about 25 percent are taking Philly on the run line to increase payout if correct.

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