ACC 2010 Football Betting Preview

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

One of only two conferences (along with the SEC) with five teams in the pre-season Top 25, the ACC will brace itself in 2010 when they take on the toughest schedule in the nation against opponents that compiled a winning percentage of .604 last year. In fact, only the PAC 10 of the traditional ‘Big Six’ conferences faced opponents who won more than 50 percent of their games in 2009.

Let’s make this clear: this conference takes a back seat to none when it comes to stocking the NFL as, over the last four years, the ACC has led all conferences in terms of most players selected in the first-round of the NFL Draft (30).

And it doesn’t stop there. Miami was one of only two teams (along with Notre Dame) honored this year by the AFCA as having the highest graduation rates in its football program of any schools in the nation, graduating 100% of their players for the class of 2002. It was the first time Miami has been honored.

It’s all cash-and-carry in 2010 as, for the first time in ACC history, five 1,000-Yard Rushers return. And with Virginia Tech – the top defensive team in the land since 2004 - anchoring this loop, there is a lot to like about the ACC.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

Atlantic Division

BOSTON COLLEGE – *8 / 6
TEAM THEME: FOOL US ONCE
Thanks to a defense that ranked 14th against the run and 19th in total points allowed, the Eagles surpassed all expectations in 2009. Picked to finish last in the ACC Atlantic Division, the Eagles rewarded their backers with an eight-win season and an Emerald Bowl appearance. That was without 2008 defensive player of the year Mark Herzlich, who sat out the entire season with bone cancer. Herzlich is back and he joins ACC defensive rookie of the year Luke Kuechly, who led the conference in tackles per game, to anchor a solid linebacking corps. The defensive effort was really no surprise considering HC Frank Spaziani’s roots. In fact, the winning season should have come as no surprise as Virginia Tech is the only ACC team with more wins than BC over the past four seasons. Another winning season in Chestnut Hill? Don’t be surprised.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. NC State (10/9)

CLEMSON – *7 / 6
TEAM THEME - HOPE ‘SPILLERS’ OVER
When a team loses a star RB like C.J. Spiller to the 1st round of the NFL draft, along with its top three WR’s from the previous season, it generally spells doom. Especially when that team goes toe-to-toe with no less than seven bowlers from the previous season. But Dabo Swinney is not a doomsayer and he refuses to believe his team is primed to take a step back from last year’s nine-win effort. Swinney, in fact, sees the glass being more than half full, noting four of his top five tacklers from last year’s swarming defense are back. So is QB Kyle Parker, who won nine games as a redshirt freshman last season, including a Music City Bowl win over Kentucky. It’s obvious Swinney is from the Brylcreem school of coaching – he believes ‘a little dab will do ya.’ Another nine-win season? Now wouldn’t that be debonair!
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Florida St (11/13)

FLORIDA STATE - *10 / 6
TEAM THEME: JIMBO-LAYA
It’s official: legendary coach Bobby Bowden has finally retired and will now be working full-time on his great-grandfathering skills as he hands the keys over to Jimbo Fisher. Fisher needs to improve on a recipe that has seen the Seminoles go 16-16 in ACC play over the last four seasons. QB Christian Ponder returns for his senior season after a shoulder injury ended his 2009 campaign after nine games. Despite the early exit, Ponder still led the ACC in total offense and with nearly the entire offensive starting cast back, don’t be surprised to see the exciting QB on more than a few Heisman ballots. With five Top 25 foes dotting this season’s schedule, including road trips to Norman and Miami, it may just take a Heisman-like effort for the Cracker Barrel folks to forget about ol’ Bobby.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida (11/27)

MARYLAND – 7 / 5
TEAM THEME: SHELL-SHOCKED
After racing out to a 31-7 record in his first three years, it’s been a slow demise for Ralph Friedgen seeing that his Turtles have posted four losing seasons in the last six years. A season-ending seven-loss skein sealed their 2009 fate and as a result, snapped a three-year bowl streak. Despite a scoring and pass defense that was the worst in the ACC last year, half of the Terrapins’ 10 losses were by a meager 3.4 PPG. Thus, there’s still some hope in College Park – but a slimmed-down ‘Fridge’ will have to start serving up more victories in order to satisfy the faithful. The Terps will rely on RB Da’rel Scott (one of five 1,000-yard rushers returning to the ACC this season) to pick up the pace. A mid-season stretch that finds them on the road in four of five games will likely decide if these Turtles can sprint to the finish.
PLAY ON: as DD dog vs. Clemson (10/16)

NORTH CAROLINA STATE – *7 / 5
TEAM THEME: DANCING WITH THE STARS
Along with Buffalo, NC State is the only FBS team in the nation that improved its numbers on both sides of the ball while declining both SU and ATS in 2009. That almost always signals improvement the following season. Thus, we’ll be dancing with these Wolves – especially with QB Russell Wilson donning the cleats. The junior has tossed for 48 TD’s and run for eight others in his two seasons at Raleigh and is on course to break all of Philip Rivers’ records. His dance partner is WR Owen Spencer, who broke the ACC record for the second straight year in yards per reception (25.5 – tops in the nation). The choreographer of this group is HC Tom O’Brien. O’Brien, himself, has stepped on some toes along the way, posting an 84-65-2 overall ATS mark, including 56-38-1 ATS in conference play and 17-2-1 ATS versus foes off back-to-back ATS wins. We like those moves.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida St (10/28)

WAKE FOREST – 6 / 7
TEAM THEME: TURNOVER IS FAIR PLAY
After four consecutive winning seasons in which they averaged more than eight wins per year, the Demons fell below the surface with a 5-7 effort in 2009. That makes them a genuine ‘Mission Team’ in 2010 and we’ll be more than anxious to support them in this revenge year. Unfortunately, we’ll be doing so without the services of 4-year starter QB Riley Skinner, who totaled nearly 10,000 yards of offense in his career. An even scarier thought is that no QB on the roster has completed a collegiate pass. However, there’s more than one way to ‘skin’ an opponent and the stat that grabs our attention is quite simple: in 2009, the Deacons were a negative -5 in turnovers after being +13, +9 and +17 the previous three seasons. Skinner or not, look for the Deacons to ‘Wake’ up in 2010.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida St (9/25)

Coastal Division

DUKE – 9 / 6
TEAM THEME: DEVILS GET THEIR DUE
Like it is for the devil down below, things are looking up in Durham. Three conference wins in 2009 were one more than Duke had won the previous three years combined. In fact, the nine wins tallied in two years under HC David Cutcliffe is only one less than the Blue Devils won the first eight years of the decade. The loss of QB Thaddeus Lewis, only the second signal caller in ACC history to toss for more than 10,000 yards, will hurt. However, nine other offensive starters return from a unit that averaged over 25 PPG, including three wideouts who accounted for over 2,400 yards and 15 TD’s. Not to play Devil’s advocate, but one fact is certain if these cellar-dwellers expect to surface: Cutcliffe will need to avoid a perpetual season-ending slide that has seen Duke go 3-37 in each of the final four games of the season since 2000.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Army (9/25)

GEORGIA TECH – *6 / 8
TEAM THEME: RUSH TO JUDGEMENT
With Al Groh handling the defensive coordinator duties, the Jackets coaching staff now boasts the last three ACC Coaches of the Year. Offensive-minded HC Paul Johnson, winner of the last two awards, will rely on Groh to shore up a defense that allowed over 25 PPG and almost 5 yards per rush. Despite the defensive deficiencies, the Jackets still recorded 11 wins – the most since their 1990 national championship season. The offense has no such concerns as QB Josh Nesbitt is back at the helm. Nesbitt is the perfect caretaker for Johnson’s triple-option offense, becoming only the second QB in ACC history to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season. Despite losing Jonathon Dwyer, last season’s second-ranked rushing attack (295 YPG) shouldn’t miss a beat as Roddy Jones (7.7 YPC) and Anthony Allen (26 career TD’s) return to Atlanta. Looks like another ACC title ‘run’ for the Ramblin’ Wreck.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Virginia Tech (11/4)

MIAMI, FLA – *6 / 8
TEAM THEME: PUNCH AND JACORY
A Canes conundrum occurred last year when QB Jacory Harris evolved as the full-time starter and, despite playing hurt throughout the 2nd-half of the season, proceeded to lead Miami to a 9-4 record, their most wins since 2005. What Randy Shannon learned is that there is little-to-no depth behind Harris and the fate of this season lies within his rail-thin frame. Like last year, the Canes will be tested early as three of Miami’s first four games will be on the road against teams that won bowl games last season. In fact, UM will take on no less than eight bowlers in 2010. Shannon will need to rely on the strength of this team – a defensive line that returns three starters along with 2009 projected starter Adewale Ojome, who missed the season with a broken jaw after a taking a punch from a teammate. If Harris can stay healthy, the Canes may deliver a few more knockout blows.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Clemson (10/2)

NORTH CAROLINA – *10 / 9
TEAM THEME: WELL-HEELED
While our favorite meaning of the word ‘loaded’ comes courtesy of our local watering hole, we’ll use Webster’s version to describe the 2010 Tar Heels: containing bullets or other ammunition and ready to fire. And ready they are! Ten starters are back on offense, including virtually every OL starter that went down at one time or another to injuries. Nine starters are back from a defense that has combined to make a total of 234 starts and held 13 opponents to 94 YPG below their total offensive average. Included in those not-so ‘baby’ blues are all four senior DB’s and DE Robert Quinn, the ACC leader in sacks. In fact, five all-star defensive candidates decided to forego the NFL draft to return to Chapel Hill. If this team stays healthy and can overcome a top-heavy schedule ‘loaded’ with nine winning opponents, they might force Webster to create a few new adjectives.
PLAY ON: vs. Georgia Tech (9/18)

VIRGINIA – *6 / 7
TEAM THEME: LONDON BRIDGE
Back-to-back losing seasons spelled the end of the line for Al Groh. His replacement, Mike London, will try to bridge a winning season despite returning only six starters on each side of the ball. London coached the Richmond Spiders to a 24-5 mark the last two years, including a FCS championship in 2008. Ironically, the former UVA assistant makes his Cavaliers’ debut at home against the Spiders. He’ll need improvement out of senior triggerman Mark Veria, who started eight games last season – a not so proud accomplishment considering the Cavs’ offense finished dead last in the ACC in overall yardage and in scoring in 2009. A tough opening six-game schedule (4 bowlers, 1 FCS playoff team) and a treacherous five-game road slate (foes a combined 43-22), likely means the bridge keeps crumbling in Charlottesville.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Maryland (11/13)

VIRGINIA TECH – *8 / 5
TEAM THEME: AT-TEN-TION
Gobblers’ 10-plus wins in each of the last six seasons puts them in select company as only Texas can claim as many double-digit win seasons during that span. It’s been no surprise that it’s been the defense leading the way, allowing a nation-low 268 YPG since 2004. Thanks to the smothering ‘D’, the Hokies have amazingly not lost a game by more than 10 points in their last 39 tries. However, with only five defensive starters back, it may be the offense that actually carries the load in 2010. And loaded they are. QB Tyrod Taylor (5th in the nation in passing efficiency) returns along with RB’s Ryan Williams (1,655 yards – 3rd most by a freshman in ACC history) and Darren Evans (top back in the conference heading into 2009 before a season-ending knee injury). A season-opening victory over Boise State should put Beamer’s boys in the center of the BCS map.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Miami Fla (11/20)

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NIT Quarterfinals Matchups

Last night two teams punched their tickets for a trip to New York next week and two more will do so tonight in the NIT. On Tuesday, both road underdogs covered the spread, with North Carolina winning outright. Is history due to repeat itself in Blacksburg and Champaign or will the home teams stand their ground and get ready to take a bite out of the Big Apple?

Rhode Island (25-9, 11-17-3 ATS) may have worn their road uniforms this month; however they haven’t visited enemy territory in awhile. The Rams haven’t played a true road game since Mar. 6 at Massachusetts, losing 69-67 as 7.5-point favorites. In fact, Rhode Island hasn’t won a road game period, last doing so on Ground Hogs Day at LaSalle. The Rams are 24-12 ATS in non-conference contests the last three years and could use another hot shooting night from Delroy James, who pumped in a career-high 34 points against Nevada two nights ago, to help Rhode Island advance in 85-83 thriller. They are only 2-9 ATS after scoring 80 or more points this season.

Virginia Tech (25-8, 14-12-1 ATS) also had a nail-biter Monday night, finding a way to knock off Connecticut 65-63. The Hokies won in spite of Malcolm Delaney scoring six points on 2-14 shooting. Delaney still found a way to contribute with nine assists.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Virginia Tech as six-point favorite with total of 143 and the Hokies are 13-4 ATS off a close home win by three points or less, while the Rams are 2-8 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or points after 15 or more games this season. This first NIT quarterfinal is on ESPN2 at 7 Eastern with Rhode Island 11-0 UNDER against defensive teams surrendering 42 percent or less shooting percentage past the midway point of the regular season.

Dayton (21-12, 15-15-1 ATS) had an undistinguished regular season, finishing eighth in the A-10 and being bounced in the quarterfinals of the league tourney by Xavier. The Flyers can earn team redemption by winning tonight and moving on to NIT semis with upset of Illinois (21-14, 14-17-2 ATS). Dayton has played extremely well in this tournament, with a 20-point win over Illinois State and taking it to in-state partner Cincinnati 81-66 on their floor. The Flyers have locked up opponents with stifling defense, holding last two to 33.3 percent from the field. However, they are 5-18 ATS playing their second road game in three days.

Illinois was thought to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but they lost five of their last six regular season games and had two chances to knock off Ohio State in Big Ten tourney and failed to do so. Coach Bruce Weber’s squad has put aside that disappointment and is 40 minutes from making trip to Madison Square Garden, winning three of last four and not losing against the spread in those contests (3-0-1 ATS). The Fighting Illini’s win against Kent State was impressive (75-58) and they are 29-13 ATS at home off a home win by 10 points or more.

Dayton is a three-point underdog for this 9:00 Eastern contest on “the deuce” and is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.

CBB Weekend Hoops Contests

With just a week or two left in regular season action on the collegiate hardwood, the stakes are high. Televised SEC action has teams playing for conference championship or trying to work their way into NCAA field. The Big Ten will have two important tests that will separate the have’s from the have not’s, while league leaders from ACC and Big East try to keep top quality competition from moving in on their space. As a bonus, we’ll throw in at no extra charge an under the wire Bracket Buster battle with the second best team out of the Missouri Valley against the finest from the WAC. Happy wagering!

Saturday, Feb.20

Florida at Mississippi (-4.5, 146) 12:00E CBS (split)

The Gators (18-8, 11-10 ATS) are not going to win SEC East, thus the next order of business is setting wheels into motion having a resume NCAA Tournament officials will like, which as we have found out in recent years includes high caliber road wins. Florida (4-3 and 4-2 ATS as true visitors) will have three chances before the SEC tourney to boost status and they are not helping themselves having lost three of previous six contests. Improved defense and rebounding are tantamount and coach Billy Donovan has taken some of the ball-handling duties away from guard Erving Walker, after he suffered a volume of turnovers, which produced better results initially. Florida has to control pace since they are 0-9 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game.

Ole Miss (17-8, 12-8-1 ATS) is guard-oriented, basically dependant on what they can accomplish outside the paint. Led by Chris Warren, the Rebels are seeking school’s first NCAA Tournament berth since 2002, however Mississippi will probably have to win out to have chance since they have lost four of five (1-3-1 ATS). In the SEC, any win is a good win and coach Andy Kennedy does need more from forward DeAundre Cranston, as opponents are stretching defense further out, not believing Mississippi can score consistently near the basket. Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with 60-80 win percentage over the last three seasons.

The teams have split last six in Oxford with Florida 5-1 ATS.

Illinois at Purdue (-12.5, 137) 4:00E ESPN

Considered as relevant as having an Indian for a mascot until a few years ago after three Big Ten losses in the middle of January, the Fighting Illini (17-9, 9-14-1 ATS) and the departed Chief Illiniwek have proved their not done yet. The light bulb has gone on for Demetri McCamey after a lackluster start and he’s become the team leader. Coach Bruce Webber benched McCamey and more recently Mike Davis and Brandon Paul and each has responded positively, with more assertive play on both ends of the floor, bringing Illinois into title contention, one loss behind leaders Purdue and Michigan State. The Illini lost to the Boilermakers 84-78 earlier and are 25-10 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points.

Purdue (22-3, 13-12 ATS) has also overcame a three game losing streak in Big Ten play to work their way back into virtual tie with Michigan State, winning eight straight (5-3 ATS). The Boilermakers are back to playing team basketball and their “Big Three” of Robbie Hummel, JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore, are delivering like Dominoes. Coach Matt Painter has everyone on the same page, understanding their roles and the defensive intensity has returned, along with greater precision on the offense. Purdue is 12-3 ATS in February at Mackey Arena.

The home team is a mere 7-6-1 ATS since Feb. of 2002, with road team 5-1 ATS in last six meetings.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt (-1, 155) 6:00E ESPN

Ask any SEC coach their least favorite venue in the league and the immediate answer is “Vanderbilt”. Coach John Calipari will have the same hopeless feeling, splitting two halves 60 or more feet away from his team on offense or defense. This feeling will be further intensified since the Commodores are exceptional team, in revenge mode and 13-0 (6-5 ATS) at Memorial Gymnasium. Vanderbilt (20-5, 12-10 ATS) is among the better shooting teams in the country at over 48 percent and is 26-13 ATS as a home underdog or pick.

The last time these teams met on Jan. 30, Kentucky (25-1, 13-11 ATS) built a double digit working margin and never let the Commodores in the game in 85-72 victory. The Wildcats controlled the glass with an astounding +19 rebound margin and scored in the paint when needed. Forward Patrick Patterson deserves props, no longer playing like he was at lido, becoming more aggressive scoring and rebounding. Kentucky is 8-2 ATS in authentic road games having won five of their last six contests.

These clubs are .500 SU and ATS at Nashville since 1997, thought Vanderbilt has won four in a row at home (2-2 ATS). The ‘Dores can tie Kentucky for SEC lead with an upset; however the favorite is 4-1 in previous five conflicts.

Wichita State at Utah State (-7, 126.5) 11:59E ESPN2

The Shockers (22-6, 10-11 ATS) have been an elite team all year in The Valley, with their fine 11-5 record, good for second position behind Northern Iowa. Yet coach Gregg Marshall has concerns. "I think we may have hit a wall," Marshall said, referring to his club 3-2 mark in last five games, covering just one time. Wichita State will have their hands full taking on Utah State who is 62-2 SU at home, playing at 11:00 PM local time and playing at elevation. A win here would help team regain confidence and the Shockers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 non-conference tilts.

Utah State (21-6, 14-8-1 ATS) once again sits atop the WAC at 11-2, riding an 11-game winning streak (9-2 ATS). A large part of the Aggies success under coach Stew Morrill is their ability to work the ball and take quality shots, which they are doing again this season with 48.6 percent shooting percentage. Balance is what makes this offense so reliable, with nation’s best three-point shooting (42.4%) and having at least four scorers in double figure most games. The Aggies won but didn’t cover in last outing and are 15-5-1 against the spread after ATS loss. Utah State is 14-1 and 8-4 ATS at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum this season.

Sunday, Feb. 21

Ohio State at Michigan State (-4, 135) 12:00E CBS (split)

The Big Ten Conference has taken on the appearance of one of Hugh Hefner’s girlfriends, loaded at the top. Two teams fighting to gain control of the league lead are the Buckeyes and Spartans. Ohio State (20-7, 13-14 ATS) has been like a stealth bomber, occasionally seen but seldom noticed. Coach Thad Matta compares this group to the year before Greg Oden and company arrived to advance be NCAA runner-up. “I think this team is probably more efficient than that (2005-06) team was offensively,” Matta said. Led by forward Evan Turner, a player of the year candidate, the Buckeyes are a robust 23-10 ATS when they force 14 to 18 turnovers in a game.

Michigan State (21-6) plays three of last four games at home and has to win all three if they want to maintain Big Ten title hopes. The Spartans are surprisingly not mentally sturdy, especially when Kalin Lucas isn’t on the floor. Durrell Summers, Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe have not been come back better players after finishing second to North Carolina last season, which is why coach Tom Izzo’s club has been play against club at 10-16 ATS, in spite of lofty status. Sparty is 13-1 at home, but just 4-9 ATS this year.

Michigan State has won eight of last 10 over Buckeyes at the Breslin Center and can effectively end there conference title hopes, yet have uneasy 3-5-2 ATS record against the Buckeyes.
StatFox Power Line – Michigan State by 2

Villanova at Pittsburgh (+3, 147) 12:00E CBS (split)

Villanova (22-3, 16-8 ATS) has been undaunted in their pursuit of being Big East regular season champions and look to continue quest on the road. As good as the Wildcats amazing guards are, they couldn’t possibly have such a tremendous record without help inside. 6’8 Antonio Pena is masquerading as a center for Villanova and is their only true low post scorer and does excellent work as reliable interior defender. Taylor King, Isaiah Armwood and 6’11 Maurice Sutton all bring something most games to negate opponents frontline, letting Nova’s guards control the contest. The Wildcats are 11-5 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 games this season.

Pittsburgh (20-6, 13-8-2 ATS) flew by preseason presumptions starting 15-2, but once it was game after game in the Big East, the Panthers looked very much like the squad prognosticators believed they would be, losing four of five at one point. With a favorable slate the rest of the way, Pittsburgh has four game winning streak and can further change minds and attitudes with an upset win here. What doomed Pitt in that losing spell was the offense went stagnant, lacking no ball movement, with too many contested shots. Gilbert Brown and Brad Wanamaker have since recovered and Pitt is 10-1 ATS at home playing teams with a winning record after 15 or more games.

Pittsburgh has tamed the Wildcats at home with 5-0 SU and ATS mark.

Virginia Tech at Duke (-13, 138) 7:45E FSN

It’s the latter part of February and there has been nothing hokey about the Hokies being in contention in the ACC title chase. Virginia Tech (21-4, 10-8-1 ATS) is not your typical ACC squad, they are grittier bunch. “We win ugly games. That’s our team,” junior guard Malcolm Delaney said. The Hokies get after opponents on defense and do the little things like make free throws, especially at winning time. Virginia Tech is 28-16-1 ATS after a conference game over the last three seasons.

Just maybe, this Duke (22-4, 16-8-1 ATS) club is seeing improvement inside. As Dickie V has espoused, Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler are as good scoring-wise as any three players on any team in the country. Lately, the Plumlee brothers, Miles and Mason have been gobbling up more rebounds and points and Andre Dawkins is being heard from again. Even seldom used Ryan Kelly has come thru when fouls or injury have arisen for the Blue Devils. Duke is 8-1 ATS at Cameron Indoor vs. defensive teams conceding 64 or fewer points a game.

Virginia Tech can tie Duke with three losses in league play with a surprising win; however is 2-6 and 3-5 ATS in Durham in its six years as ACC member. The Blue Devils are 14-0 and 10-3 ATS on home floor, winning by gargantuan 27.6 points per game.

New Year's Eve Treats

New Year’s Eve means the first of 15 bowls over the next three days. This is no place for the droopy-eyed sports bettor, this where you go on the attack. This is not the time to drink too much or eat too much. Life is all about moderation. No you don’t need to be a hermit, it’s not like the Peach Bowl is must see TV, rather enjoy the evening have laughs with friends and check your bets frequently however slick you have to be to pull it off. Preparation is the key is watching all these games over the 72 hours and I pity the fool who thinks he’s superman and parties like it’s 1999 and is going to make power-nap work in the context of halftime without having practiced. Lines from Bookmaker.com

Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force vs. Houston (-5, 63)
Amon Carter Stadium – Fort Worth
12:00E ESPN

It’s déjà vu all over again for Air Force and Houston, opponents for a second straight year in this bowl. The Cougars won last year, 34-28, covering the number on a late field goal. At 10-3 SU and 8-4 ATS, the Cougars are looking to culminate its best season since winning 11 games in 1979. Houston is averaging 43.9 points per game and a nation’s-best 581.1 yards per game on offense. Air Force was 7-5 and 6-4-1 ATS with just a 1-5 record vs. bowl teams. The Falcons rushed for 273.6 YPG this season, fourth nationally, and will look to take advantage of a Cougars defense that allowed 5.0 yards per rush.

Why watch and wager- Houston’s a good play if one believes they can dictate tempo. The Cougars will want to play fast with Case Keenum hitting receivers all over the field, which presumably leads to touchdowns. Houston has covered their last five games off a loss and the defense will have to be disciplined (unlikely) to stop Air Force attack. The Cougs are only 1-8 ATS in road games after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Air Force is a good play if you believe they impose their will on Houston. The Falcons like the other military schools play hard for 60 minutes, which is not always the case for Houston. If Air Force establishes running game, the undisciplined Houston defense can be gashed over and over and if they can keep continual pressure on Keenum to frustrate the Cougars, those points look inviting, considering they are 19-9 ATS after rushing for 200 or more yards.

3DW Line – Houston by 1

Sun Bowl
Stanford vs. Oklahoma (-10, 55)
Sun Bowl Stadium – El Paso
2:00E CBS

El Paso natives are looking for a better showing than the 3-0 snore-fest a year ago. This bowl has typically been an exciting one, dominated by underdogs, 11-1-1 ATS prior to last year. The Pac-10 has won five straight games (3-2 ATS). All of this could bode well for Stanford, which comes in as a heavy underdog to Sooners without starting quarterback Andrew Luck. The Cardinal were 8-4 (7-5 ATS) this season to earn their first bowl bid since 2001. Oklahoma was 7-5 (4-7-1 ATS) and mostly inconsistent team. The Sooners have lost five of their last six bowl games both SU and ATS, with the one win coming in non-BCS ’05 Holiday Bowl.

Why watch and wager- This matchup could be called the “Backup Bowl” as neither will have their original signal caller, which will dramatically impact the outcome. Tavita Pritchard is in charge of completing passes for Stanford so running back Toby Gerhart doesn’t have face what would look like two dozen red helmets in the box. Under coach Jim Harbaugh the Cardinal is 7-0 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game over the last two seasons. Though the Sooners defense wasn’t as strong as expected, they had their moments especially against teams that like to run the ball. In November encounters, they stuffed both Texas A&M (59 yards) and Oklahoma State (62 yards) and are wholly capable of doing the same against Stanford, without the threat of the pass. Boomer Sooner’s bowl record under Bob Stoops has been lousy of late, however Oklahoma is 11-4 ATS after allowing 175 or less yards in previous game.

3DW Line –Oklahoma by 7

Texas Bowl
Missouri vs. Navy (+6.5, 52)
Reliant Stadium – Houston
3:30E ESPN

Navy (9-4, 5-6-1 ATS) has always been a very competitive team in bowl games (7-3 ATS), but comes into this year’s Texas Bowl looking to snap a three-game postseason losing streak. The Midshipmen have proven a predictable team when it comes to bowl games lately, going 4-1 ATS and 5-0 Over the total. Missouri provides the opposition, which rallied to an 8-4 (4-7 ATS) finish by winning four of its final five games, topping the 400-yard mark each time. The Tigers are a heavy favorite, which could prove important since the chalk is 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the history of this game, including a 3-0-1 ATS record with lines of 6.5 points or more.

Why watch and wager- Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert should be able to pick out receiver Danario Alexander among others, since Navy generates little pass rush and is in the bottom 20 percent in forcing negative plays. If Gabbert finds open receivers, that makes RB Derrick Washington that much more dangerous opening up all kinds of possibilities for squad that is 13-3 as a 3.5 to 10-point favorite. Navy covers the number by establishing fullback Vince Murray. If the Middies puncture the center of Tigers defense, that opens up quarterback Ricky Dobbs on the edges. Dobbs is the best passer Navy has had in decades, and immensely effective in play-action off the fullback dive for long gains. The Midshipmen are remarkable 71-44 ATS as underdogs the last 17 seasons.

3DW Line –Missouri by 3

Insight Bowl
Minnesota vs. Iowa State +2.5, 48.5)
Sun Devil Stadium – Tempe
6:00E NFL Network

Minnesota (5-6-1 ATS) is one of a handful of teams playing in the same bowl game that it did a year ago. The Golden Gophers have become quite familiar with the Phoenix area, making third trip to Tempe in last four years. Unfortunately, they lost two previous contests. This will be the first time Minnesota is favored, despite 6-6 record in the regular season. Iowa State (7-4 ATS) shares that same record and is in a bowl for the first time since 2005. The Cyclones are looking to extend a three-game winning streak by the Big 12 in this bowl, one that has been high scoring and 13-3-1 Over since 1992. The underdog is 8-4 ATS the last dozen years.

Why watch and wager- The records of these two schools suggest just another meaningless bowl game, but that’s hardly what the coaches are thinking. Iowa State has posted win totals of 4, 3 and 2 the last few years, for a total of nine, thus a seven win season with a bowl win for first year coach Paul Rhoads would be an amazing accomplishment. Throw out a 16-13 victory over South Dakota State on Nov.14 and Minnesota is 0-9 (4-5 ATS) playing big boy football once the calendar flips to November the last three years. QB Adam Weber has to keep his wits about him for Minnesota. Yes, he taken a pounding and was gun-shy the last few games and if doesn’t correct this feeling, Golden Gophers drop to 0-5 ATS as bowl favorites. The Cyclones are not going to generate a lot of points, which means the defense has to step up and put the Gophers in a hole. Though mostly against the Hawkeyes, Iowa State is 10-2 ATS vs. the Big Ten.

3DW Line –Minnesota by 1

Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee (+5.5, 49.5)
Georgia Dome – Atlanta
7:30E ESPN

The Volunteers and Hokies will send off 2009 in the last college football game of the calendar year. Virginia Tech (7-5 ATS) is favored after finishing 9-3, winning its last four games both SU and ATS, conceding just 8.8 PPG. The Hokies haven’t been the best bowl team of late, going just 3-5 SU and ATS since 2001. Tennessee (7-5 SU & ATS) shares that same bowl record in its eight games and has gone Under the total in five straight bowl battles, including twice in the old Peach Bowl. The Vols are looking to extend a streak of four straight upset wins by SEC teams in this bowl series.

Why watch and wager – For each of these teams, the goal is the same it’s just the method in which they get there is the difference. New coach Lane Kiffin was able to harness Jonathan Crompton from a mistake-prone quarterback into one that make better decisions and cut down interceptions. This was helped by Montario Hardesty who used his senior season to blossom and Crompton had deception on his side with a running game. In spite of alarming defensive injuries, the Vols held together under DC Monte Kiffin and are is 20-8 ATS away from Knoxville playing a team with 75 percent or better win percentage. This is important game for the stature of the ACC and Virginia Tech. The conference has started 1-3 SU as a bowler and Virginia Tech is in search of fifth straight 10-win season. Did you know Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams actually gained more yards rushing and had more touchdowns the Heisman winner Mark Ingram? Neither did anyone else and if he can break the century mark against the Vols, the Hokies should be good. The biggest concern Frank Beamer is lack if pass rush, exposing mediocre secondary. The Hokies are 32-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

3DW Line –Virginia Tech by 6

Rivalry Games for Wagering Appetites

It’s the last big weekend of college football already, where did the time go? Among the more intriguing matchups is Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, with Cowboys trying to make Sooners a .500 club. Florida wants to prove they are still the top team in the country and in the Sunshine State. Georgia and Georgia Tech has a lot of history and Yellow Jackets want to keeping winning, playing for ACC title next. The way it’s been portrayed, no matter the outcome, a certain South Bend football coach might be fired during the game and told to find his own transportation back home. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.


Oklahoma State (+7.5, 49) at Oklahoma 12:30E FSN

All of the preseason discussion about Oklahoma State centered around last year’s fabulous offense that averaged over 40 points per game and had their three stars returning. As it turns out, Oklahoma State (9-2, 6-4-1 ATS) comes into the annual battle with Oklahoma with a good defensive club. Other then surrendering 45 points to Houston and 41 to Texas, only Texas A&M and Colorado have been able to cross the 24-point barrier against the Cowboys D. Among the leaders is cornerback Perrish Cox, who leads the nation in passes defended. Though hardly dominant, the defensive line has maintained steady pressure on opposing signal callers all year. The Cowboys are 8-3-1 ATS in road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

It’s hard to imagine a better five loss team talent-wise over the last 20 years than Oklahoma (6-5, 4-6-1 ATS). The Sooners resume doesn’t look as fancy as previous year’s, however not many top programs could overcome the losses the Sooners have faced. Coach Bob Stoops has resisted temptation to let the situation overwhelm the squad, instead asking those replacements to play their best and believing healthy players have to raise their level of play to help compensate. With QB Landry Jones receiving so much more experience than anticipated, the Sooners are playing towards the future as well and sophomore WR Ryan Broyles is looking like a star in the making. The Sooners are 9-3 ATS of a SU loss.

The “Bedlam Game” battle still has Oklahoma leading all-time with 79-16-7 and the home team is 8-2-1 ATS in this rivalry. The Cowboys will look to improve on 6-13-1 ATS November road record.

3DWLine – Oklahoma by 10.5

Florida State (+24.5, 56) at Florida 3:30E CBS

For well over a decade, this was one of the most anticipated games of the season, with an array of future NFL players and blinding speed from each team. With the arrival of Urban Meyer and the decline in talent in Tallahassee, this has become a one-sided series. The Gators have won five in a row and three of the last four by scores of 27, 32, and 30 respectively. Sadly, at least for Florida State fans, this showdown has become nothing more than tuneup for the Gators (11-0, 5-5 ATS) before SEC title game. The Florida defense has been this team’s bell-cow even if the fawning continues over Tim Tebow. They turn off the opponent’s running game like a spigot, rush the passer like a video game at faster speed and defend the pass like they are a receiver’s shadow. Florida is 9-1 ATS off a non-conference game in the regular season.

As retiring defense coordinator Mickey Andrews said after Wake Forest upset, “If we don’t make mistakes, we’re a pretty good football team.” Football can be that simple and Florida State (6-5, 3-8 ATS) knows it. The issue all year has been lack of discipline in carrying out assignments. Be it defensive linemen needing to secure a corner or an offensive tackle grabbing opposing player for holding penalty 30 yards away from the ball. This Florida team doesn’t have the look of the three previous national champions and if the Seminoles can play mistake free for three quarters, who knows what can happen in last 15 minutes. Florida State is 10-4-2 ATS as an underdog, but 8-21-1 against the spread off a SU victory.

Check the spread, the SU winner in this Sunshine State showdown is 25-2-1 ATS.

3DWLine – Florida by 23.5

Georgia (+7.5, 57) at Georgia Tech 8:00E ABC/GP

Conference championship contests certainly put a different twist on rivalry games if they are held the week prior. For the second time in four years, Georgia Tech (10-1, 7-3 ATS) has advanced to ACC title tilt and you have to wonder about mindset for this matchup. In the big picture, earning a league championship and BCS berth is far more important than defeating a in-state rival, yet fans have to live with one another should their team lose. Georgia Tech players have been conditioned to want to take down the bigger state school, leaving a bit of an emotional quandary. The Yellow Jackets are 1-9 ATS at home after scoring 35 or more points.

The Bulldogs are also in quandary, how to you stop the Georgia Tech option offense? Since losing at Miami, the Yellow Jackets have scored 39 points per game and are second in the country in rushing offense. The Georgia (6-5, 3-7 ATS) defense has been anything but memorable in 2009 and will have to find ways to slow the Jackets down, while playing mistake-free on offense. Signal caller Joe Cox has played with more confidence in last few outings and running back Caleb King has found more room to maneuver. Coach Mark Richt’s team can go full out and has revenge angle having lost last year 45-42 as touchdown favorites. The Bulldogs have had plenty of bite with 20-6 ATS record on the road in non-conference games over the last 17 years.

This Peach State confrontation is more old-school with the visitor 9-2 against the spread, which includes Georgia 5-0 ATS at Bobby Dodd Stadium.

3DWLine – Georgia Tech by 13

Notre Dame (+10, 63) at Stanford 8:00E ABC/GP

If the NCAA had a football tournament (can’t we pretend at least), one team nobody would want to face is Stanford. The Cardinal (7-4 SU & ATS) is an offensive juggernaut right now and has given no indication anyone will stop them. What makes Stanford so incredibly difficult to defend is balance. Running back Toby Gerhart is the most physical runner in the Pac-10, maybe in the country and quarterback Andrew Luck is efficient passer with ample time to throw. Pull out all the preseason publications you can find and good luck trying to find the Stanford offensive ranked among the elite. However, ask the previous 11 teams which have played the Cardinal what was the best offensive line they faced, well the answer is clear. Coach Jim Harbaugh’s team is 10-1 ATS at home the last two years. (Does Harbaugh look to run up the score like he did against USC)

Charley Weis is a large man and the shadow he is casting over the Notre Dame (6-5, 2-8-1 ATS) football program is a 1000 times larger. Since the Navy upset, the story isn’t about the football team, it’s about Weis and if he will come back for 2010 or not as the Fighting Irish coach. For a team with incredible strengths and equally persistent weaknesses, the last thing they need is a loss of focus which has been inevitable since Middies loss. Be it not for QB Jimmy Clausen and receiver Golden Tate, Golden Domers would have been in outrage back in early October. Defensive coordinator John Tenuta is known from his blitzing schemes every stop along the way; however it hasn’t worked in South Bend, lacking the players. The Irish are 1-6 ATS after their last home game.

Stanford is 3-11 and 4-10 ATS vs Notre Dame since 1993.

3DW Line – Stanford by 7.5

Here are other rivalry games of interest.

Clemson at South Carolina (+3.5, 44) 12:00E ESPN

The Clemson Tigers are playing for their first ACC title since 1991 next week, but before that, they would not mind sticking it to Palmetto state rival South Carolina. The Tigers finally exceeded expectations in winning the Atlantic Division and have six game winning streak for the first time in three years. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS the last eight years in this encounter and have been an underdog once in 20 years. South Carolina is sliding again due to rugged closing slate and needs this victory for a winning campaign. The Gamecocks are 6-15 ATS in last game and 6-11 ATS the last two games since 2001.

Mississippi at Mississippi State (+8, 47.5) 12:21E SEC Network/GP

The Egg Bowl is among the bitterest state rivalries and Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen will get his first taste playing in Starkville. MSU has played a number of the better SEC teams to the finish and it would be a great conclusion to upset Ole Miss this season. The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in final home game. After beating LSU last week 25-23, Mississippi looks to close the season on a high note. The Rebels have better utilized the talents of running back Dexter McCluster the last several weeks and is 7-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons. The home team is 9-1 and 6-3-1 ATS the last 10 years.

Virginia Tech at Virginia (+15.5, 42) 3:30E ESPN

The Hokies have won nine of last 10 in this rivalry, with seven covers. It’s a different feeling for Virginia Tech in this contest, as usually a bigger game has been in waiting, be it in the ACC or the Big East. Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last three years. It looks like the end of the line for coach Al Groh, with Virginia on five-game losing streak and another losing season. The Cavaliers anemic offense has been the largest contributor, scoring more than 20 points three times and they are 10-22 ATS when they rush for 50 to 100 yards. Virginia Tech is 16-8 ATS vs. Virginia the last 24 years.

Missouri vs. Kansas (+3.5, 56) 3:30E ABC/GP

The longest running series west of the Mississippi River continues in Kansas City for a third straight year. Both teams had disappointment with how the season evolved, yet one squad will have satisfaction in deflating their biggest rival. In this Border War, Missouri’s passing offense is 18-6 ATS when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards per attempt. Kansas on the other hand is 0-6 SU and ATS since win over Iowa State in Big 12 opener. The Jayhawks failures bring up the past and they are 18-39 ATS record in weeks 10 through 13. This is the 118th meeting and the series is 54-54-9, with the dog barking at 10-4 ATS.

Utah at BYU (+7.5, 53) 5:00E CBSC

This is the 85th version of the Holy War and though no conference title is on the line, the intensity will be as strong as ever. BYU is after their fourth consecutive 10-win season and definitely will be in revenge mode after 48-24 demolition at Utah last season. The Cougars are only 4-11 ATS in MWC matchups the last two years. Like BYU, the Utes have lost just twice this season and are 17-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards a game. This is almost always a competitive affair, with 10 of last 12 decided by seven or less points. The underdog is 12-4 ATS since 1993.

UCLA at USC (-13, 47) 10:00E FSN

Much like the Dodgers and Angels of Los Angeles, UCLA and USC failed to deliver in clutch situations, leaving fans wanting for more. The Bruins lack of running game has limited the options in the passing game, with opponents blitzing heavily in obvious throwing situations. UCLA is 6-12 ATS on the road after a Pac-10 home game. This is unfamiliar territory for USC with three losses; however closing with a trio of wins gives the Trojans an eighth straight 10-win or better season. Coming off the bye week, Pete Carroll’s club is 19-7 ATS with rest and the home team is 19-8 ATS for this city rivalry.

Can Pirates steal a win from Hokies?

East Carolina is in the driver’s seat in the C-USA East Division and takes a brief pause to try for second straight upset of Virginia Tech on their home turf. The Pirates have been off since Oct. 27, after mauling Memphis 38-19 and likes the direction the offense has gone in being more productive. In East Carolina’s last two games, they have averaged 478 yards per outing, be it against far weaker competition than Virginia Tech.

Quarterback Patrick Pinkney is at his best when the Pirates (5-3, 3-4 ATS) have a lead or are within one score when trailing. Pinkney is a dissonant thrower of the football and a far better game manager than playing the role of Captain Comeback. East Carolina is 7-3 in last 10 games at Dody-Ficklen Stadium. (Couldn’t possibly make up that name)

Virginia Tech (5-3, 3-5 ATS) is in unfamiliar territory. It’s the first week of November and they have nothing to really play for other than improving overall record to save face and avoid 2003 campaign that finished with 8-5 record and Insight Bowl loss to California. Bookmaker.com has Hokies as 13-point favorites with total of 52, which is a dangerous number for a potentially unmotivated road fave. This is the first of two road games for Virginia Tech and they are 10-4 ATS as visiting favorites the last five seasons.

Virginia Tech assistant coaches are coming under fire in Blacksburg. Offensive coordinator Bryan Stinespring has been in hot water for some time and has in own website (http://firebryanstinespring. com/). Hokies’ fans haven’t liked his conservative game plans and vent their frustration towards him. Even Bud Foster’s defensive prowess is being attacked in Hokies’ blogs, with defense being abused for 180 or more yards on the ground in half of Virginia Tech’s games. They are hard to comprehend 79th in the country against the rush and 3-8-1 ATS in non-conference encounters.

East Carolina’s best chance is to bottle Hokies running game (allowing 108 YPG) and make them throwing team. QB Tyrod Taylor has made great strides as a passer and Pirates secondary is not going to discourage any team from throwing against them (103rd), however as witnessed last Thursday, the junior signal caller is not polished when slinging from the pocket. Since knocking of Virginia Tech and West Virginia to start the 2008 season, East Carolina is 0-5 SU and ATS in most recent non-league matches.

Even with last week’s upset, Frank Beamer’s club is still 14-4 ATS on Thursday’s and 8-2 ATS in November.

Though the bigger goal is winning another C-USA title, it will be festive atmosphere in Greenville, with ECU looking to take down a vulnerable Hokies bunch. The Pirates are 8-1 ATS when catching 10.5 or more points and coach Skip Holtz will have them in a frenzy. East Carolina is 5-9 SU all-time against Virginia Tech and has covered only twice in last six meetings.

ESPN will provide the coverage at 7:45 Eastern, with the Hokies on 11-0 UNDER run on Thursday nights.

CFB Teams to Wager On in November

The last month of the college football season separates the contenders from the pretenders. This is the time where the best teams go and secure conference titles, while those with weakness are found to be fraudulent and meekly fall to the wayside. Teams that have has poor years will often be roughed up by better squads as coaches look to underclassmen seeking better results the following year.

In a black and white world, November should tell us who the best teams are and who are not, yet sports bettors understand all too well about that’s not how it works. In 2007, LSU won a national championship, covering one game from the end of September until defeating Ohio State 38-24 as four-point favorites in the BCS title tilt. In November, if it’s possible, it will likely happen.

Here is the complete list of teams that have good or bad track records is the sports craziest month.

*The Baylor Bears have really missed QB Robert Griffin. The offense has stagnated and the defense is not strong enough to compensate. The Bears are 0-20 and 6-13-1 ATS on the November road and have dates at Missouri and at Texas A&M.

*Hard to surmise presently if coach Dan Hawkins is returning, however Colorado backers would just fine if he could carry on lasting tradition of fielding decent football squad. The Buffalos are 24-12 ATS this month and will have say in who wins the Big 12 North.

*If Houston survives trips to Tulsa and Central Florida, they are still in line to win the C-USA West. Their last two games are at home against Memphis and Rice; however this has been a squad that doesn’t always have the binoculars in focus, telling the tale of 7-12 ATS home record late in the season.

*Iowa State has never won a Big 8 or Big 12 football title of any kind. In 2004, they lost to Missouri in overtime 17-14, to see another chance dissipate. They are competing this season for the North Division crown and it could come down to road game at Missouri. A 1-10 and 3-8 ATS road mark is not encouraging.

*Kansas won at Oklahoma State in November of 2007 on the way to Orange Bowl berth. Beyond that triumph, the history is gloomier than the Kansas weather this time of year with 2-31SU and 9-24 ATS record on the road or at neutral sites.

*Kent State’s has enjoyed one winning season in the last two decades (2001 at 6-5). The Golden Flashes could have another if they don’t fall prey to the ghosts of November’s past, which has spooked them, having 5-23 and 9-19 ATS mark.

*Mentioned LSU earlier, is any other top line program have a more sickly spread record at home than the Tigers at 5-20 ATS? The answer is no, with Louisiana Tech and Arkansas paying a visit to Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge.

*Dating back to the days of Randy Moss, Chad Pennington and Byron Leftwich, Marshall always had a severe home field edge. Those days have passed, yet the Thundering Herd still has bettors running to the cash out window with 17-4 and 14-5 ATS record in November home games.

*This will not go down as one of Memphis University’s better football teams. They still have three enormously difficult road clashes at Tennessee, Houston and Tulsa. Nevertheless, the Tigers will be catching a truckload of points and are 10-1 ATS away from Memphis this month, on 6-0 spread run.

*Middle Tennessee State had freakish schedule this season. The first four of five bouts were on the road, followed by next five of six at Murfreesboro. Their last contest of the year is at UL-Monroe and they are 3-7 ATS in the 11th month of the year dressed as visitors.

*Nebraska’s fine season has recently taken a wrong turn. Coach Bo Pelini is attempting to get the Cornhuskers back on the track, but with 6-10-1 ATS road record since 1999. With trips to Kansas and Colorado, it might not happen.

*Coach Tom O’Brien has a history of his teams being a finisher, be it at Boston College or now at North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have three home games and road excursion to Virginia Tech and they are 10-4 ATS on the November road.

*Ohio University is the ninth oldest public university in the United States and Fox News CEO Roger Ailes majored in radio and television while attending the Athens school of hirer learning. The Bobcats are also becoming known for 10-5 spread figure at Peden Stadium and will have two chances to improve that number.

*Oklahoma State has multiple personalities this month. At Stillwater, the Cowboys are a handful, sporting a 12-4-2 ATS record. When wearing the road whites, not nearly as potent or intimidating, covering five times in last 19 tries (5-13-1). Two home games and two road tilts await Okie State.

*It’s not the good old days at Texas A&M, seeking magic formula that made them regular participant in the best of bowls in the 1990’s. Besides the cool tradition of the 12th man in Aggie-land, Texas A&M is 11-4-2 ATS at Kyle Field to close the season. Baylor and huge rival Texas will both pay a visit.

*With the oddsmakers attempting to make it harder and harder to bet on USC this time of year, the Trojans still persevere and are 20-5 ATS. Of note, since moving last game to December, Pete Carroll’s team has failed to cover the last three played.

*You know the Allstate commercial, with the butler ready to serve the two guys tailgating and Bergwood says he doesn’t want the sauce with the steak tartar? After the butler rolls his eyes, the other guy says sarcastically “Really?” That’s the same reaction people have when they learn Utah State is 7-1 ATS in November the last two seasons.

*As it turns out, Virginia and Oklahoma State have a lot in common. The Cavaliers are miserable 7-19 ATS as visitors; however at Scott Stadium they are 12-6 ATS. Of the four remaining games, they are evenly split home and away for Virginia in 2009.

*Virginia Tech is very solid anywhere under coach Frank Beamer. They are 18-9-1 in Blacksburg in the final month of the season and they will have N.C. State paying a visit in the final home game for outgoing senior class.

*Wake Forest used to known as the Tigers, but in the 1920’s, the football team was known for "devilish play and fighting spirit." and the name stuck with Deacons added. Right now the Demon Deacons are devilish to wagering accounts with 7-14 SU and 5-16 ATS chronicled account as road team.

*Washington State actually went to the Rose Bowl in 2003, but the Cougars have turned into playful cats with a 4-12 ATS mark the last several seasons. Games at Arizona and Washington and home contests with UCLA and Oregon State don’t figure to change this unbecoming trend.

In the last four years, the Wyoming Cowboys have been knocked off their saddle with 3-11 and 2-12 ATS record in November. With home games against BYU and TCU and at improving San Diego State, plus Colorado State, hope doesn’t spring eternal.

Thursday's Top Tips

We had two more winners yesterday and hopefully can pick up a couple more. Kendall has today’s Free Pick and the Top Trend is on the ice with 11-2 record. No systems of note, thus we look to CFB on Saturday in the Big 12 with 88.5 percent Best System. Good Luck

NEW Feature: New Poll Question at the bottom of page.

What I thought yesterday – I don’t recall seeing a pitcher so in the zone like Cliff Lee, who was oblivious to what was going on around him. Lee in baseball vernacular had plus-plus stuff all night long, he was virtually untouchable. Yankees better win tonight or the party is over.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Kansas, in a game involving two explosive offensive teams averaging 34 or more points per game, in a conference encounter. This system checks in at 23-3 ATS, 88.5 percent since 1992.

Free Hockey Trend-2) The Vancouver Canucks are 11-2 (+12.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the first half of the year over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Kendall looks for another winner and takes Virginia Tech as -15.5.

Paul Buck Guaranteed CFB Winner Thursday! Tired of losing, join in on the winning parade.

The Platinum Sheet is selling out weekly the at Gambler’s Book Store in Las Vegas.

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Sports Bettor makes Virginia Tech call

The calendar shows Virginia Tech on Thursday night, this can mean only one thing, time to make mucho dinero. (Sorry for Bob Griese reference) If you are a serious sports bettor like me, you know the Hokies are more golden than shakin’ down friends and family for old gold jewelry to profit from. (Frank) Beamer’s boys are 14-3 against the evil empire the last 11 years.

It’s understandable a few of you might be a little skitterish about laying 16.5 (at Bookmaker.com) on Virginia Tech, after watching them get plowed under for 309 yards by Georgia Tech and North Carolina stepping on Florida state for a cool 238 last week, not to worry friends, the ol Red-man will not steer you wrong.

How can I be so sure? Comparing the Yellow Jackets option offense to North Carolina’s running game is like comparing to Erin Andrews to Chastity Bono. GT is second in the country running the ball and the Tar Heels are 86th even after crossing the 200-yard barrier.

North Carolina players still have to be lower than my latest 401K update, blowing 24-6 third quarter lead near the Dean Dome last Thursday. The Tar Heels actually do have decent defensive talent and have held all teams not named Georgia Tech and Florida State to 17 points or less. I have to question how much they are going to want to play before a geeked Virginia Tech crowd, especially if the offense plays to norm, meaning 115th in FBS land. I like fishing as much as the next guy, but I’m not taking the bait UNC is for real, besides they are 1-7 ATS after gaining 200 or more yards rushing the pigskin.

Frank Beamer has had a few extra days to coach up his downtrodden team since being stung by Yellow Jackets. Defensive coordinator Bud Foster probably led the Hokies in tackles in practice since their last contest, showing his defensive guys it’s OK to tackle somebody REALLY HARD in practice and in games. Anything less than max effort from the defense would be a bigger shock than Andre Agassi's revelation. The Beamer’s are 12-6 ATS off a bye week and 7-2 against oddsmakers if opponent has positive record.

Quarterback Tyrod Taylor doesn’t throw the ball like Jimmy Clausen, nonetheless is improving passer and has been sharp after so-so passing games. What I like about Beamer, he’ll having his team find out right away what kind mood and effort North Carolina is likely to provide, running the ball right at them, throwing deep balls and trying to scare the devil out of Heels chucker T.J. Yates, with continual blitzes. Reports out of Chapel Hill have Yates being chased out of Franklin Street establishments for making holes in the wall on errant dart throws, despite no oncoming pass rushers.

With North Carolina one of the six worst offenses in the country and already 0-5 (2-3 ATS) against Virginia Tech since they’ve joined the Atlantic Coast Conference five years ago, take the Hokies to start a fun-filled Halloween weekend 34-10 and cover convincingly.

Red Wydley wrote this ACC Thursday matchup.

Looking ahead in Rearview Mirror in College Football

Ohio State detractors and Big Ten bashers won’t have to worry about Ohio State screwing up BCS championship game plans. The Buckeyes were whipped on all fronts at Purdue. Helmets smattered with buckeyes might intimidate some teams but the talent at Ohio State is not substantially better when it chooses not to play. Purdue ravaged Ohio State on both sides of the ball. The Boilermakers forced five turnovers and sacked Terrelle Pryor five times. They had 24 first downs to Ohio State’s 12. In other words, after five consecutive losses, Purdue wanted it more than the Buckeyes and took it.

Three observations, first coach Jim Tressel needs to hire a coach that can make Pryor a better quarterback. All the talent in the world is useless without practical application. Second, Pryor needs to grow-up, the gliding into the end zone for two-point conversion and the behind the back basketball-style flip to bring Ohio State WITHIN eight points is better served with a lead, not when trailing. Lastly, don’t expect the Buckeyes to be overrated the rest of the year by oddsmakers, this team simply isn’t that good and finishes at Penn State, Iowa and at Michigan.

USC proved they deserve to be in national championship discussion and if they play like they did for three quarters at South Bend, Texas better start beating Big 12 teams with abandon. Though Notre Dame has closed the talent gap with the Trojans, wasn’t the feeling USC had 15 players that looked like they could play in the NFL, while the Irish had around six. Matt Barkley looks fantastic and being able to throw to TE Anthony Mc Coy and WR Damian Williams is a real privilege, especially against a Notre Dame secondary that couldn’t cover a piece of toast if they had a stick of butter.

Not sure if the Notre Dame offensive linemen stopped to shake hands with USC defensive end Everson Griffen, but if they did it was the only time they slowed him down all day. Safety Taylor Mays was exceptional and took away Irish tight end Kyle Rudolph (3 catches, nine yards). The last remaining challenge for the Trojans is at Oregon and that should determine Pac-10 title. If Pete Carroll’s crew plays the same or improves, the Ducks are in trouble.

Notre Dame can say what they want about closing the talent gap and all that nonsense. The Irish showed plenty of fight, but this was their opportunity and they came up short. What really matters looking ahead does this team have the character to close 10-2 or do they do what many expect and find a way to finish 8-4?

Really felt bad for Sam Bradford in the Red River Rivalry contest and if I’m an NFL scout, my urgency meter is really up on him. Twice he’s proven the lack of escape-ability from the shotgun. The same again was proven about Tim Tebow vs Arkansas. These quarterback’s are so comfortable receiving snap, feeling little pressure and just making one read and rip. When pressured, they lack the survival instinct of stepping up or avoiding the chaos around them and are easy targets for on-rushing linemen.

Coach Bob Stoops was 3-3 in 2005 and his team responded winning four of last five, how will this group perform? Coach Urban Meyer can thank his lucky stars Arkansas could not execute when it counted most, missing touchdown pass and field goal that would have added more pressure on the Gators. The toughest remaining game on the regular season schedule is at South Carolina and Florida will be favored in all other games. If the opponent can play defense, wouldn’t count the Gators as safe bet as Tennessee and Arkansas proved.

Iowa overcame 10-0 deficit at Wisconsin and took over the game with 17-0 second half. What was impressive about the Hawkeyes is they held the Badgers to 87 yards on the ground. This week at Michigan State and later at Ohio State appear to be the stumbling blocks. Grit and determination are what this Iowa team is about, but that doesn’t mean it holds up every time. Best guess if Iowa and USC win out, the Trojans would be 17 or more point favorites in the Rose Bowl.

Texas Tech didn’t overwhelm Nebraska statistically (259 yards to Huskers 285), but buried them on the scoreboard 31-10. This Big 12 matchup had two elements almost no one saw coming. Nebraska opened as 5.5-point favorites and were bet heavily to 11-point choice, before the market adjusted them to 10.5. Evidently the Cornhuskers are a good matchup for the Red Raiders, who have won four straight. The total of 58.5 was never in question. Coach Mike Leach will have to make coaching decision as backup QB Steven Sheffield throws a nice ball and is elusive an a runner. Taylor Potts is about ready to comeback from concussion.

It was just last week Virginia Tech was the class of the ACC, blah, blah, blah. As was noted, this isn’t typical Hokies defense and Georgia Tech proved just it, bruising and deceiving Virginia Tech for 309 yards on the ground in 28-23 upset as 3.5-point underdogs. The Yellow Jackets option is on fire and here is the reason they might go 11-1 and be a solid bet. In their last two losses, Miami had 10 days to prepare for the option and LSU had basically a month in Chick-fil-A Bowl. All five remaining opponents have conventional one week.

Goal Line Observations – Central Michigan is the best team in the MAC and should continue to stay a good bet thanks to improved defense in 2009….Idaho is not a fluke, too bad they have to play at Boise State….Pop Illinois out of the microwave, they are done. At 1-5 and 0-6 ATS, they are headed nowhere with that defense….This was presumed to be a down year for the Pac-10 with a dearth of quarterbacks. Yet out of nowhere youngsters are emerging. Matt Barkley is headed for stardom and Stanford’s Andrew Luck and Arizona’s Nick Folk combined for 838 yards in Wildcats come from behind 43-38 victory.

Top College Football Games to Consider

For this Saturday on the collegiate gridiron, two longstanding rivalries top the schedule. The evenly divided Cotton Bowl, half burnt orange and half red, presents a perfect setting for the Red River Rivalry, with the winner again taking command of the Big 12 South. The best annual intersectional rivalry resumes with USC traveling to South Bend. An influential Big Ten battle has Iowa at Wisconsin and the same goes in the ACC with Virginia Tech visiting Georgia Tech. Nebraska still hasn’t forgotten 70-10 loss to Texas Tech five years ago and would love to lay out the Red Raiders. Can the Ol’ ball coach work magic and upset No. 2 Alabama? Everything will be determined on another great Saturday of college football action. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Oklahoma (+3, 52) vs Texas 12:00E ABC

For Oklahoma (3-2, 2-3 ATS), it has been a tough go in 2009. Having to play without its Heisman Trophy quarterback for most of the season, potential All-American tight end and recently losing its best receiver. Despite having more problems than David Letterman, the Sooners still control their own destiny with a win over archrival Texas. Like most coaches, Bob Stoops doesn’t worry about whose not there, instead trying to get the most out of who is. Sam Bradford played last week in Baylor bounce back win 33-7 and is having to go without TE Jermaine Gresham for the season and WR Ryan Broyles is questionable. Another factor in this equation is a defense lacking in big stops. In spite of nine starters returning and No.9 ranking, the Oklahoma defense did not made an important shutdown in their losses to BYU or Miami. The Sooners are 1-3 in last four meetings and haven’t covered since 2004.

As Texas (5-0, 1-4 ATS) found out last season, beating Oklahoma isn’t enough and they have to keep focused with road games at Missouri and Oklahoma State up next. Colt McCoy hasn’t been quite the quarterback he was a season ago, but still having a very good 2009 campaign. He’s been helped by a running back by committee this season, as coach Mack Brown has gone with the hot hand and kept feeding the ball to that back. What might make the difference for the Longhorns this season is the defense (No.4 overall). The defensive line was hit by graduation, nonetheless defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has pleaded with his team about the importance of seizing the momentum with key stops and turnovers and its paid dividends. Texas is 5-12 ATS vs ranked teams on neutral fields.

The underdog is 14-7 ATS since 1988 in Red River Rivalry’s, with the margin of victory 10 or more points in 10 of last 11 battles. The Longhorns are 6-18 ATS away from home after five or more consecutive straight up wins. The Sooners are 8-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last two seasons. Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS as road underdog under coach Stoops, upset in the making?

3DWLine – Texas by 2

Iowa (+2.5, 47.5) at Wisconsin 12:00E ESPN

If a person is ardent fan of Big Ten football, than you know Wisconsin hates Iowa. Neither school would consider the other its biggest rival, nevertheless Badger fans detest Iowans. After losing at Ohio State last week 31-13, Wisconsin (5-1, 2-3 ATS) is setup nicely to run the table in the conference after their upcoming bye week. Running back John Clay has dropped a few calories and is back to running hard behind an improving offense line, with Badgers rushing for over 200 yards per game. Quarterback Scott Tolzien has more weapons at his disposal than what was believed in the preseason, with better athletes manning skill positions. Coach Brett Bielema and his defensive staff have out-maneuvered opponents with attacking defense. The Badgers are 20-11 ATS as single digit Big Ten favorites.

Coach Kirk Ferentz has never big on style over substance, which is why he’s pleased with Iowa’s 6-0 record. Closer than anticipated victories over Northern Iowa (17-16) and Arkansas State (24-21) are much better than a loss from Ferentz point of view. After last week’s thrilling 30-28 victory against Michigan, the Hawkeyes hit the road for a pair. Top priority is stopping the Wisconsin run game and making the Badgers as one-dimensional as possible. This strategy worked versus Arizona and Penn State and Iowa is confident it can work again. On offense, quarterback Ricky Stanzi has hit a few big plays the last couple of weeks and Wisky is vulnerable in the secondary, allowing 210.3 yards per game against opponents that only throw for 174 YPG. Iowa is 5-9 ATS in the first of two road games.

The Hawkeyes are 19-10-1 ATS since the turn of the century as conference dogs of 9.5 or less and they are 6-1 ATS facing the Badgers. Wisconsin has not covered last three tilts at home against the Iowa and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in Madison.

3DW Line – Wisconsin by 1

USC (-10, 50) at Notre Dame 3:30E NBC

Forget all the come-from-behind wins, forget the 4-1 record and forget Jimmy Clausen Heisman talk, for Notre Dame followers and detractors, this is the benchmark game of the season. The Fighting Irish have a BCS bowl offense and an International Bowl defense. Notre Dame (1-4 ATS) has lost seven in a row to USC (1-6 ATS) and six of those games, the Trojans margin of victory has been Nancy Pelosi eye-opening 31 points per game. Charley Weis and his team feel this team is different, having a potential All-American quarterback and an offense that keeps overcoming the defenses’ flaws. The two biggest factors for Notre Dame will be keeping Clausen in vertical position and the ability of Irish defenders to keep USC out of the end zone. Notre Dame is 11-27 ATS having won four out of their last five games.

If the California game is precursor of USC’s true abilities, watch out. The Trojans (4-1, 2-3 ATS) defense tamed the Bears like a zoo keeper and now has similar numbers to last year’s unbelievable group. QB Matt Barkley was productive against Cal and won’t be intimidated at South Bend, having played at Columbus and at Berkeley already. Pete Carroll is pleased to report injured players like wide receiver Ronald Johnson should be back, which can open up the Trojan playbook. The Men of Troy are 39-7 and 29-17 ATS in non-conference action.

Rest assured, USC has no problem playing the Irish since they have a “who’s your daddy sticker” on them. The Trojans are 14-3 ATS with two or more weeks of preparation and figure to be in good shape wanting to continue domination. This has to be a “Wake up the Echoes” game for Notre Dame. Somehow, someway they find a way and pull the upset and move to 5-2 ATS as home underdog against Top 10 team.

3DW Line – USC by 3

Texas Tech (+11, 61) at Nebraska 3:30E ABC/GP

With regular starting quarterback Taylor Potts out with concussion for undetermined amount of time, coach Mike Leach looks on building the confidence of his backup Steven Sheffield. Leach not only likes his quick delivery, but his mobility also. “Of our quarterbacks we have right now, he creates the best tempo for the group,” said Leach. The Texas Tech head man as other issues, like an offensive line that is allowing too much pressure on his pigskin passers. That needs to be solved with Nebraska’s ability to turn up the heat. They will face a strong Huskers running game (5.2 yards per carry), however the Red Raiders (4-2, 3-2 ATS) are 15-4 ATS versus excellent rushing teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards per carry.

Playing in a steady downpour, it’s hard to look overly impressive; nonetheless Nebraska (5-0 ATS) played 15 minutes of football that will be remembered in Lincoln. Down 12-0 after three quarters at Missouri, the Cornhuskers scored the game’s last 27 points to raise record to 4-1. Led by likely All-American defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, he and his defense teammates took over the game and a soggy Nebraska offense cashed in on their opportunities. If coach Bo Pelini’s squad can win this Big 12 contest, this sets up for the Cornhuskers to be 7-1 when they host Oklahoma on Nov.7. Nebraska is 7-3 ATS in the first or two or more home games.

Nebraska has dropped three straight to Texas Tech after winning the first seven meetings in the series. No Cornhusker fan will ever forget the 2004, 70-10 massacre in Lubbock and returning the favor would be the sweetest revenge. The Huskers are 15-3 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points a game. This has become a potentially ruse line, with Nebraska money flooding in from opening line of the Huskers at -6.

3DW Line – Nebraska by 9

Virginia Tech (-3, 52) at Georgia Tech 6:00E ESPN2

Virginia Tech (5-1, 3-3 ATS) buried Boston College 48-14 at home and has rugged assignment. The Hokies defensive front will be put to the test against the Georgia Tech option offense. This isn’t your vintage Frank Beamer defense, allowing over 123 yards rushing per game and not in the Top 25 in total defense (34th). This will be another tester in terms of desire to succeed and hold the line. Virginia Tech might gain one advantage if Tyrod Taylor continues to throw the ball well, since the Yellow Jackets are a rambling wreck against the pass, being burned for over 249 yards a game. Hokie offensive football is still based around the running game and they will have to run the pigskin on the ground to be successful. The Hokies are sensational 17-3 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less.

Georgia Tech (5-1, 3-2 ATS) has a Sesame Street lineup having three games against teams that start with the letter V (Virginia and Vanderbilt on deck) in a row. The success the Yellow Jackets have enjoyed this season is when they attack early, both on offense and defense. The option will bog down from time to time, which means if Josh Nesbitt can get things started quickly, that helps momentum, particularly helpful in front of the throng at Bobby Dodd Stadium. The defense has been plagued by missed assignments in the secondary and poor tackling. The Jackets will look to crank up the running game and are 17-6 ATS when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt.

Virginia Tech has won four of the last five tilts; with the road team 5-1 ATS in recent clashes. Prior to last season’s 20-17 Hokies win, the average margin of victory was 23 points per game.

3DW Line – Virginia Tech by 5

South Carolina (+17.5, 45) at Alabama 7:45E ESPN

This has to rank among the stranger seasons the ol’ ball coach has had being a head coach (working for Daniel Snyder not included). The defense lost a ton of talent from last year, yet South Carolina (5-1, 4-1 ATS) has only conceded more than 17 points twice this season. Despite constant shuffling in the offense line, the Gamecocks total on average just over 370 yards per game, not bad considering the turmoil. Senior linebacker and captain Eric Norwood finds a way to make an impact in every game and he will need to in a big way to slow down the Alabama attack. South Carolina is 9-4-1 ATS as road underdogs under coach Steve Spurrier.

Coming into the season, Crimson Tide (6-0, 5-1 ATS) backers thought their team had the potential to be even better than last year’s club that took 12-0 record into the SEC title game. The 55 returning lettermen are all physically stronger and a year wiser to coach Nick Saban’s no nonsense approach and if quarterback Greg McElroy could come thru, no telling how far Alabama could rise. McElroy has been tremendous and other pieces have fallen into place. Sophomore running back Mark Ingram has been as good as advertised, but tight end transfer Colin Peek is really fitting in, as he and McElroy have gotten more comfortable with each other. The Tide is 9-22-2 ATS in SEC home games, which includes three straight covers.

This is the first of trio of conference home games for Bama, who is 9-16-1 ATS when favored by 10 or more points. In studying Crimson Tide trends, most have come from the past and under coach Saban, most everything has been a lot different. For proof, check out 9-2 ATS record after a win by 17 or more points over the last two seasons, winning by 21.6 points per game. These teams last met in 2005 and the visitor has covered the oddsmakers number the last three times.
3DW Line – Alabama by 17

Looking ahead in rearview mirror in college football

The world is an amazingly fickle place. When you are on the rise, everybody wants to be your friend. Once you reach the top of the summit, you are revered, honored and respected. Act a little pretentious and take a calculated risk that backfires and people will turn on you faster than an elected official talking bipartisanship.

That’s what seems to being happening to Urban Meyer at Florida, after the franchise, Tim Tebow, was blown up and suffered concussion at Kentucky. The media has decided to crush Meyer for having Tebow in a game that was 31-7 and the Wildcats showing no inclination of being any closer. Of course if the left side of the Florida line blocks and doesn’t expose “Superman” to big hit or Tebow’s own teammate’s knee doesn’t happen to be there to cause the trauma, all of this not a national sports story.

Like any good coach, Meyer had again seen a sluggish second half offense and undoubtedly wanted to give his first-teamers a chance to work out rough spots, for the eventually of actually having to play a full 60 minute game (see Penn State). Take off the 20-20 after-the-fact glasses and it was nothing more than bad luck Tebow was hurt. Besides let’s be honest, most of these scribes and talking heads love to see their names in more read areas to enhance reputation, than Tebow’s actual health.

For as many years as Joe Paterno has coached at Penn State, he as much as anyone should know playing bad opponents will improve team’s record; however will not prepare a team for eventual tough opposition. Iowa’s superior mental toughness (down 10-0 on the road) and more physical style started to take command in the second quarter and the Nittany Lions had no point of reference to turn the tide. StatFox had an angle that I’d never seen before and it rang true again. Penn State still might go on a win a beleaguered Big Ten, but they are 0-15 ATS against teams that hold opposing teams to 12 or fewer points.

California showed the courage of the “cowardly lion” from the Wizard of Oz at Oregon. Forget all the nonsense of look ahead to USC or Oregon just had hot day, these Bears by all appearances invoked the “Q” word and could have used someone like former Duck LeGarrette Blount, because at least he cared about losing. The type of loss Cal suffered (524 to 207 total yards) is hard to wash off and they are 3-7 ATS after Oregon. These Bears will have to hope there is no place like home against the Trojans.

One person and team that showed intestinal fortitude was Jimmy Clausen and Notre Dame. Starting Friday, reports were starting to emerge Clausen wasn’t nearly as good to go as advertised. Just minutes before the game, backup QB Dayne Crist was caught on camera warming up, which was a strong indicator Clausen wasn’t near 100 percent. The junior Irish signal caller was laboring with mechanics and Charlie Weis sent in a very effective package with Crist and Golden Tate in building 17-7 lead. Purdue did determine Notre Dame wasn’t going to really test them thru the air and shutoff the Irish offense and took the lead 21-17 with just over 3:30 minutes to play. Clausen strapped on the helmet, encouraged his team that they had to execute and he would take of the rest no matter if he was throwing on one foot. Clausen and the Irish showed grit in engineering game winning drive and were helped by highly questionable Purdue timeout with Notre Dame scrambling on third and goal. Are the Irish a great team or a good bet? Neither seems to be the case, but they don’t have another true road game until Nov. 14 (Washington State in San Antonio on Oct.31) and the way the first month has played out, it’s about winning and gathering styles points later.

Conference USA has a bevy of unfortunate teams, but Southern Miss and Houston are players. The Eagles pushed unbeaten Kansas to the limit at their place. Southern Miss was tied at 28 heading into fourth quarter as 11.5-point underdogs and lost by a touchdown. The stats proved how competitive the Eagles were, outgained just 433-395. They have good running game with Damion Fletcher and QB Austin Davis can chuck it around to big, strong wide receivers. They will have two difficult road trips to Houston and East Carolina, nonetheless, will be capable of winning both.

C-USA finally has respectable BCS-crasher somebody will talk about. Tulsa was 7-0 last year, but was thought of as nice story, not legit BCS material. Houston is 3-0, with a pair of Big 12 conquests. The spine-tingling comeback over Texas Tech before a record crowd at Houston has the Cougs in the Top 25 and BCS schools potentially looking for a new coach reading up on coach Kevin Sumlin. If the Cougars could conquer Mississippi State on the road in under two weeks, that leaves Southern Miss and at Tulsa as remaining visible road blocks.

Quick hits – The combination of Adam Webber and Eric Decker signifies that Minnesota has play on potential against Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State in the coming weeks. –Alabama is the most impressive team in the country and it is going to be nearly impossible to bet against them even as oddsmakers load the points on their opponents the next month. - So much for Virginia Tech not being a considerable factor in the ACC, after making Miami look like Duke in 31-7 thrashing. It will be interesting to see what the Hurricanes have left in the tank for Oklahoma this week as almost a touchdown home underdog. – The Ron Zook era might be coming to a close in Illinois. It won’t happen this year, but a lifeless Illinois team’s best performance was woofing at Ohio State BEFORE the game. Juice Williams never improved after Rose Bowl season. The Zookers are 15-32 SU if you take out FCS games in his tenure and might be favored just three more times this season.

Betting ACC football looks like coin flip

Let’s start with the facts, the ACC generously speaking, is lousy. Not in all sports, as North Carolina has done a great job holding up the league’s reputation in college basketball and the conference sent two teams to the College World Series in baseball this past summer. No, were just talking football.

In 2004, the Atlantic Coast Conference university presidents saw the money the SEC and the Big 12 were making holding a conference championship game in football and the interest and buzz it created nationally. Not afraid to throw around a little cash, along with promises, the ACC raided the Big East and took their three strongest football programs (all for the sake of higher learning of course) and rebuilt a the league into a dozen teams. Miami and Virginia Tech joined in 2004 and Boston College followed a year later. A new “super” conference was born, right?

Well not exactly. Along the way a few stumbling blocks occurred. While the Big East additions were supposed to enhance competition, they weren’t supposed to dominate. Of the four ACC title games played so far, five representatives have been from the Big East, lead by Virginia Tech three times. In fairness, things do move a little slower in the South. When Florida State joined the ACC, they won their first 29 conference contests and 47 of 48.

Because of the success the Mountain West Conference has enjoyed, speculation has been written and discussed about adding them to the BCS (oh that will happen) or possibly dropping a weaker league and adding the MWC to the mix. (Not likely)

If for example that were to occur how does the ACC standup?

Since reshuffling the deck in 2004-05, the ACC is 134-96, 58.2 percent straight up against D-1 or FBS teams in non-conference games. That’s just below average compared to the other five BCS conferences and the Mountain West. For the sports bettor, the ACC isn’t an acceptable wager with a record of 109-119-2 against the spread in those encounters. That’s 52.2 percent on the losing side of wagers, not including adding the vig.

The news is even worse when you consider over the last three years and the beginning of this season these 12 teams win only 44 percent of the time against the aforementioned other conferences.

What is the problem with the ACC, it’s actually two-fold. First, the school presidents fully expected adding three new teams and a little magic dust and suddenly it’s the SEC. The ACC is a basketball conference. Most schools are willing to pay decent money to coach players in short pants, but haven’t shown that same willingness on the gridiron.

This leads to the quality of coaches in charge of these programs. Bobby Bowden is not the same as he was 10 to 20 years ago. Frank Beamer is still elite head coach, however after, not much Hall of Fame material. Tom O’Brien, Jim Grobe, Butch Davis and Paul Johnson all fit in the “good” category with Johnson the most likely to reach greater heights. Veteran coaches like Al Groh and David Cutcliffe will get the most out of what they can recruit by academic standards at Virginia and Duke and Ralph Freidgen wins enough to keep the alumni off his back. At this point Randy Shannon, Frank Spaziani and Dabo Swinney all have incomplete grades and none were costly hires.

With the ACC about to really delve into league play what should the sports bettor expect in balanced league lacking true star power?

The game of football has evolved to where so much importance is placed on the quarterback. The two best veteran quarterbacks are Riley Skinner at Wake Forest and Thaddeus Lewis at Duke, however neither will be making a living at that position once their eligibility is completed. The league’s future might be in its youthful signal callers, with the likes of Jacory Harris at Miami, Russell Wilson at N.C. State and Christian Ponder at Florida State. Each has the skill to be complete player and should only get better with proper work ethic and talent around them. Tyrod Taylor and Josh Nesbitt are both exciting players who are mostly one-dimensional players. The truth is the league reflects the quarterback play at this time, rather generic and predicated on youth without the infrastructure to protect on off days.

In breaking down conference play over the last five seasons it’s about as expected. Virginia Tech is 34-9 and 29-14 ATS when ACC title games are counted. Florida State is 24-17 and 17-24 ATS, being overvalued in many cases and Georgia Tech is 25-17, but only 20-22 ATS with no distinguishing attributes.

The Wolfpack at N.C. State is 17-23 and .500 against the spread. We’ll have to watch if they can continue 4-0 ATS home underdog mark from last season. Boston College is 21-14 and 17-18 ATS and actually has a better SU record in there four years in the ACC compared to the previous last four years in the supposed weaker Big East.

The next three teams are long time members stuck in neutral. North Carolina is 18-22 and 20-20 ATS and Maryland is very similar at 18-22 SU & ATS. Clemson is 23-18 and 19-22 ATS and is a much better home dog than home favorite in ACC action.

Wake Forest is 20-21 SU & ATS and is dastardly 3-8 ATS as away favorite the last decade. Miami is 22-20 and 18-24 ATS in league play, sporting 4-11 ATS record in home games. Virginia is positive 21-19 and 22-18 ATS, being a solid wager at home and wobbly road team. The Dukies are ghastly 2-38 (its true), however is frequently overlooked as doormat of the ACC and is 19-21 against the oddsmakers.

It would be a pleasure to suggest a certain style of wagering in the ACC, like playing all underdogs, however the facts don’t support it. Instead, like the many roads that go thru the Carolina’s, follow the yellow signs with the wiggly picture. SLOW – Proceed with Caution.