Rockies in Great Betting Spot

The Colorado Rockies return to action with a four-game road excursion to San Diego to start the second half of the season. Colorado is solidly entrenched in third place in the NL West and is two games behind San Francisco for the wild card spot. The Rockies have just completed a 10-game homestand that was mildly disappointing with series records of 1-1-1 for a total of 6-4 record.

Long known for home/road dichotomy, Colorado (47-41, +6.6 units) has made tremendous strides this season with 24-22 mark as visitors and they are the third best bet in baseball in the traveling uniforms at +8.3 units.

In their opening game against San Diego, they will send their ace Aaron Cook (8-3, 3.98 ERA, 1.390 WHIP) to the mound. After a sluggish start to the season, Cook has been cookin’ with 5-0 record in last seven starts, only conceding more than two earned runs twice in that time.
The sinkerball specialist has always enjoyed facing Padres hitters, as they continually beat the ball into the ground against him. This has led to Cook posing 12-4 record versus San Diego, with sparking 2.71 ERA. With the Rockies having defeated Atlanta last Sunday to end the homestand, Cook and Colorado are 10-3 in road games after a win over the last two seasons.

San Diego (36-52, -12.1 units) has hit the skids and about the only thing that is going to change their luck is cloning Adrian Gonzalez. The Padres are dead last in the Major Leagues in scoring, averaging meager 3.8 runs per game. Gonzalez is the only effective run producer on a team that has lost 21 of last 29 games and is 11-26 in July the last two years.

The Friars will start Chad Gaudin (4-7, 5.03, 1.409), who is a pitching rollercoaster. Throughout most of the season he’s alternated good and bad performances and is off one of the better ones, allowing one run in 6 2/3 against Arizona, which resulted in no-decision for him.

Bookmaker.com has Colorado as -135 money line favorites with total Ov7, which fits very comfortably into a system supporting the Rocks.

Play On road favorites with a money line of -125 or more after seven or more consecutive home games, in July games.

There is no mystical reason why this superb system works; it just does with 51-12, 81 percent record since 1997. These matchups tend to one-sided as well, with teams like Colorado winning on the road by 2.7 runs per game. With San Diego really finding it challenging to scratch in the win column and 9-25 having lost two of their last three games this season, consider this exceptional situation.

Wagering on the Home Run Derby

Over the weekend an unofficial poll was taken and 52+ percent of the people given the choice between watching the All-Star game or the Home Run Derby preferred to watch the latter. While that fits nicely into Major League baseball wanting to promote the entire event, the folks at FOX Sports can’t be crazy about the outcome.

The Home Run Derby is meaningless fun and eight contestants have been chosen, here is a breakdown of what to look for, with odds courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

Albert Pujols (+200)

Baseball’s best player will have a few inherent advantages, with one being in his own home park and being able to stay emotionally charged with fan support. Pujols is a legitimate Triple Crown threat, leading the National League in home runs (32), runs batted in (87) and fourth in batting average (.332). Pujols should hit over 50 home runs for the first time in his career and will try to not alter his swing too much to win this contest, not wanting to mess with it after coming out of mild slump. The Redbird first baseman is odds-on favorite to win after making semis two seasons ago and runner-up in 2003.

Ryan Howard (+250)

The 2006 champion is tied for fifth in the National League with 22 dingers and will have fan support at Busch Stadium, being a Missouri native. Howard’s bat has been a trifle slower in 2009, but his uppercut swing against beach ball tosses is tailor-made for this event. His biggest worry is being too jacked-up and expending a great deal of energy early.

Adrian Gonzalez (+500)

Gonzalez is the first Padre to being in this event since 1992, when Fred McGriff and Gary Sheffield were participants and the game was in San Diego. Gonzalez is tied for second in the senior circuit with 24 home runs and his 67 walks in 88 games is sure to double, being San Diego’s only true threat in the lineup. The easy-going first baseman could make a name for himself in winning The Derby, since it will be the only time you will hear or see him based on the Friars play this season.

Prince Fielder (+500)

After failing to hit 40 home runs last season, Fielder is back on pace in 2009 and has to be darkhorse for this competition. He has the power to compete and like Howard has natural uppercut swing. His downfall could be the heat and humidity of St. Louis and using up a lot of energy early and not having much in the tank if he would make the final round.

Brandon Inge (+1200)

This is turning out to be quite a season of change of Inge. After being the Detroit catcher in the middle of 2008 campaign, Inge was moved back to his more normal third base position to improve Tigers defense. Though not a noted power hitter, Inge has 21 long balls this season, playing for division leader and was voted on by the fans to make the All-Star game. He probably more than anyone knows his hard work has paid off in good fortune and will be excited about gaining notoriety. Definite long shot.

Joe Mauer (+800)

Mauer’s inclusion in the Home Run Derby is somewhat mystery based on volume; however this could be a precursor of things to come. Mauer leads the Major Leagues in hitting with .373 batting average. He has a career high 15 homers at the break, despite playing in only 64 games due to missing the first few weeks of the season. At 26, he starting to show the track of top notch player whose power numbers go up with age. He’ll be trying to two in a row for Minnesota players, as he is the other half of the M&M boys, with Justin Morneau last year’s champion.

Nelson Cruz (+600)

The most exciting player in last’s year Home Run Derby was Josh Hamilton of Texas, who was too tired to finish the deal after putting on a memorable show early on. Nelson Cruz has 22 shots that have cleared fences this season and Cruz has stated he expects to be in the thick of the action, though doesn’t see himself hitting 28 in the first round like Hamilton his last season.

Carlos Pena (+600)

The American League’s leading home run hitter is truly honored to make the team as replacement for Dustin Pedroia, who instead went to be with pregnant wife. Pena has found a home in Tampa Bay and the slugging first baseman has 24 home runs and is another darkhorse, if he can keep emotions in check.

Winner –Albert Pujols
Runner up - Carlos Pena

Let's start June with Winners

The Pittsburgh Pirates can’t hit Mike Hampton (they are about the only ones) over his career, which gave us a 1-2 Sunday. Today will have just two official plays, with Best System just missing as qualifier, but very strong totals play. Top Trend is unbeaten and Jason looks to carry weekend success into the start of the week. Good Luck. By the way, added new feature to bottom of page.

What I learned yesterday- Adrian Gonzalez hit his 20th home run of the season in the Padres 5-2 win at Colorado. After Gonzalez led the National League with nine home runs in April, he hit an NL-high 11 homers in May. Gonzalez is the first player to lead the National League in home runs (either tied or outright) in both April and May (of the same season) since Mark McGwire in 1998.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY UNDER the total is 7 to 8.5, with a marginal losing team like Seattle (46 to 49 win percentage) who is playing a losing team, playing on Monday. This system just falls short of qualifying at 79.5 percent, with a swell 35-9 record since 2004.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Dodgers are 10-0 when playing against a crummy team with 38 to 46 win percentage.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Jason hit six of seven MLB plays over the weekend and taking the Mets as his best bet today.

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