Friday March 26 plays

Got knocked around good yesterday going 0-2 and seek immediate help in turning things around. That starts with a NBA system that is 25-5 ATS and is written out in long form in an article. The Top Trend is in Philly and Slick Rick has the makings of a blowout in the NCAA Tournament for Free play. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- After four days of thinking how great the officiating had been in the NCAA Tournament, I thought three of the four games last night the crews were average to below.

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Free Basketball System -1) Best system is listed below in article

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Philadelphia 76ers are 4-17 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 14-4 since Sunday and has Baylor by double digits.

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Tuesday's Tops

Thought I’d change it up a touch today, seeing we’re coming so late. There was no Best System, so instead we will go with the best one I could find at almost 80 percent. Doing a repeat of Monday’s Top Trend winner, while also giving you something else to consider. After a dismal NBA campaign, I’m a hotter topic than Ann Coulter at Ottawa University and giving out my favorite NBA selection. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- The Kansas City Royals look they will struggle again, based on what I’ve seen talent-wise in the exhibition season.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On road underdogs of 10 or more points like floundering Philly, after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. This system dials up nicely at 29-8 ATS.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Princeton is 11-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 129.5 or less this season. However, St. Louis is 9-0 ATS after three straight games where both teams score 70 points or less this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) I’m 14-1-1 ATS in last 16 NBA (it’s monitored) plays and I’m taking Utah to win and cover in the fourth quarter.

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All Systems Go for NBA Monday

On a busy night for sports bettors in professional basketball, five matchups in particular standout, given specific situations on the sides and totals. Take a hard look at these systems before making a decision on what looks best on the NBA board to start another week of wagering. Numbers from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Indiana (+4.5, 206) at Philadelphia

The Pacers headed down a very familiar path, losing a lot of basketball games. Indiana has dropped four of last five, as even their offense is failing them, averaging 95.8 points per game compared to season average of 99. Having lost by 10 points at home to the Sixers Saturday, they turn right around and face them again in Philly. Teams that have played five or more consecutive Unders, averaging 98-102 points per contest, against an ordinary offensive team (92-98 PPG) are 5-23 ATS the last five seasons.

Cleveland (-1, 190) at Miami

The Cavaliers have won four in a row, including a pair of narrow wins over the Lakers and Oklahoma City. Cleveland ranks 13th in points scored at 100.9 PPG, however, pedestrian offensive teams (98-102 PPG) facing other teams that allow 92-98 points a contest, after two wins by six or fewer points are 33-64 ATS the last 14 years.

Orlando (+1, 204.5) at Memphis

The Orlando Magic after losing last three games of their recent road trip have come back to win take a trio of contests by 10 points or more. Orlando is seventh in points surrendered at 96.2 per game and visits a Memphis squad that 24th defensively in conceding 103.9 PPG. These factors set up a total situation that reads this way. Play Over when the total is 200 to 209.5, with one team permitting 92-98 PPG, against a lousy defensive team (102 or more PPG), after two straight wins by 10 points or more. (25-7 L5Y)

Atlanta (+1, 197) at Houston

The Rockets have not been firing correctly in 2010, winning just four of 10 tries and costing backers dearly with 2-8 ATS mark. Their record has fallen to 24-19 and home teams where the line is +3 to -3, after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread, with winning percentage between 51 and 60 percent, are 9-32 ATS since 2005.

Phoenix (+6.5, 221.5) at Utah

The Suns (26-19) and Jazz (25-18) have similar records, with Phoenix having lost five of last seven and Utah hitting the right notes having emerged victorious six of last seven games. Though the Jazz are vastly superior defensive team (97 vs 107.4 points allowed) oddsmakers see Phoenix dictating the tempo with predicted total. In this case, Play Over when the total is greater than or equal to 210, in a game involving two marginal winning teams, with record falling into 51 to 60 percent. (32-8 L5Y)

NBA teams trying to stave off elimination

Three NBA teams are down 3-2 in opening series of the postseason and each will attempt to hold on to live to play another day. Chicago and Philadelphia will have the benefit of playing on their home court, while Portland has the unenviable task of trying to win on the road. NBA sports bettors are left to ponder the right course of action to take to make Thursday a profitable day.

Boston at Chicago 7:05E TNT

Spoke to Steve Makinen of StatFox.com after Game 1 of this series, and his words have rung in my head ever since. “Boston should win the series, but every game should be close. It’s obvious the Bulls can play with Boston without (Kevin) Garnett.” This has certainly been the case, with three overtime games and four of these contests decided by 10 total points. The loss of KG has had a significant impact, especially on defense.

Checked with James Patrick from the House of Sports.com about how he saw the series playing out. “The Bulls have had the advantage of catching Boston without a couple of key pieces to their team with the losses of Garnett & Powe. Chicago is young and with the extra length of games due to overtimes, it only helps to have young legs. I look for this series to go the full seven games and for the Celtics to win game seven at home in another barnburner.”

Chicago knows it blew a golden opportunity to be playing for series closer in their favor, instead of facing elimination. They gave up an 11-point fourth quarter lead and while they believed the refs calls went against them, Boston is the defending NBA champions and were playing on home court. Derrick Rose and the Bulls are 12-4-2 ATS off a loss and the rookie point guard has to add steadier play, after committing 20 turnovers in last three games.

Betjamaica.com has Chicago as three-point favorites with total of 195.5 and the Bulls are just 1-5-1 ATS as faves at the United Center since Mar. 28. Boston was in this same exact spot a season ago and failed, however they are 15-4 ATS after a win by six points or less this season.

Orlando at Philadelphia 7:35E NBA-TV

There are presents one receives and there are gifts. The 76ers received an exceptional gift, courtesy of the NBA front office. The league suspended center Dwight Howard (please note, the above picture will not occur tonight) for Game 6 because he threw an elbow that appeared to graze the head of Samuel Dalembert in the first quarter Tuesday. The officials assessed Howard a technical foul on the play and Philadelphia asked the league to review that play and they handed out their judgment. Howard had 24 points and 24 rebounds in Game Five 91-78 win and will be sorely missed.

This will open the lane for Philly, who has not been productive in halfcourt sets. The Sixers are 6-2 ATS after a loss by 10 or more points and should be able to get to the rim with greater ease. Defensively, coach Tony DiLeo will be expected to have his troops extend more perimeter pressure to challenge three-point shooters with greater regularity. Watch for the adjusted line on Game 6 with the underdog 4-1 ATS in this Eastern series.

Portland at Houston 9:35E TNT

Portland knows what it needs to do to extend season into May, they just have to execute it in enemy territory. The Trailblazers have lost 12 of their last 13 (8-5 ATS) games at the Toyota Center and 10 of their last 11 road playoff games overall. In order to win as 5.5-point underdogs, Portland must stop the ball getting into Yao Ming like they did in games two and five. They had tried to double team Ming with either Joel Przybilla or Greg Oden, taking turns fronting him or denying entry pass.

After giving up over 100 points the first two games, the Blazers defense has held the Rockets in check, not allowing them to break 90-point barrier. Portland is 27-10 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite and needs another stellar effort from LaMarcus Aldridge. In the two wins, the former Texas big man averaged 26 points per game, in the three losses, half the total at 13 PPG. Portland’s challenge will be cumbersome with Houston 8-1 ATS off a double digit point loss.

NBA Sunday Betting Previews

The second big day of professional basketball action this weekend has the other eight teams still competing to advance in the playoffs. Detroit has all but thrown in the towel as eighth-seed and series could end today. Chicago was feeling great about themselves just days ago, but a loss puts them on the critical list. Orlando and Portland are both are the road and need wins to avoid being down three games to one.

Boston at Chicago 1:00E ABC

Reports out of the Windy City had the Bulls feeling pretty plucky about almost winning two games at the defending NBA champs place and with a couple of home wins, Chicago was thinking upset. Instead, Boston but the basketball equivalent of water-boarding on the Bulls and blew them away by halftime. Chicago did themselves in also with 22 turnovers. Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro said nerves weren’t a problem, but how else do you explain a team making 90 percent of free throws in the first two games, misses nine in the first half? Maybe the coach is right; it’s not nerves, its expectations. With more than 48 hours to prepare, Chicago is in advantageous spot since home teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days rest are 54-15 ATS the last five years. For some reason, the Celtics are still three-point underdogs.

Cleveland at Detroit 3:30E ABC

If this was a MMA fight, they would have already called it. Though Detroit will say all the right things about playing possession by possession and trying to win quarters, in there hearts do they really want to put off the inevitable? The Pistons are .500 at home this season with cheerless 13-29 ATS record. They are on 0-6 SU and ATS run and 3-11 ATS at home after failing to cover the spread in two or more games this series. The final nail in the coffin is Cleveland is 15-1 ATS after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half this season. The Cavs are eight-point road favorites.

Orlando at Philadelphia 6:30E TNT

The Orlando Magic are quickly finding out they have flaws and more than most realized. They have blown double-digit second half leads in two games, winning once in the series and trailed by 17-points to come all the way back, only to be nipped with just seconds to play. Two more buzzer beaters and Philadelphia sends Orlando home for the summer most unexpectedly, but why?

Asked King Creole of Playbook.com why he thought Orlando has been less than magical. “I'm not surprised that they are struggling in this series. Orlando is historically a very POOR favorite in the NBA Playoffs (13-23-2 ATS in their history). That includes 1-5 ATS as playoff road favorites. And they're even worse when they have high aspirations. Orlando is 6-15-2 ATS in the playoffs when they have a current win/loss percentage of .666 or greater. When priced as a favorite of 11 or less points, they are 3-12 ATS.”

He went on to add, “The rims get 'tighter' in the NBA playoffs for teams who are so dependent on three-point shooting success, like the Magic. After hitting 38-percent in the regular season on three-point attempts, the numbers are down to only 31.1 percent so far in the post-season. In Game One, they shot only 27.8 percent (5 for 18). In Game Two, they shot only 26.2 percent (6 for 23).”

Bookmaker.com still has the Magic as four-point favorites with total of 191; however they are far from safe bet at 1-8 ATS record in last nine games.

Portland at Houston 9:00E TNT

This is quickly turning into a coach’s nightmare series. Both teams have had moments of utter brilliances, which were followed by foolhardy play; those watching could have laughed out loud like at a Chris Rock concert. Yao Ming has lateral movement of a battleship, yet Portland players keep taking the ball right to him. One trip the Blazers’ players set a perfect screen to free up dribble penetration and the trip down the floor, it’s a good thing NBA refs don’t call moving screens, because the attention to detail is forgotten. Portland has to put Game 3 behind them, which might not be that easy since they are 22-41 ATS off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog.

Somebody on the Houston coaching staff needs to let Aaron Brooks know he doesn’t HAVE to shoot the ball in every important situation. They might also want to remind the Rockets players that nothing bad will happen if they maintain defensive focus for four quarters. Houston continues to dominate Portland at home with 11-1 record (5-7 ATS) and they are 29-12 ATS after they failed to cover the spread this season. Oddsmakers have lowered Houston to 4-point favorites.

Philadelphia and Houston in Monster Matchups

The 76ers and Rockets both made good on the proverbial “we’re just happy for split” statement to open their respective NBA series. Each did so in different, yet dramatic fashion and now they have opportunity to not only maintain homecourt advantage, but start placing themselves in position to possibly upset higher seeds in first round of playoff basketball.

Orlando at Philadelphia

The Sixers have covered both games in this series and they have proven unequivocally they can play with Orlando, in spite of closing the season so poorly. Philadelphia has shown if they double-down on Dwight Howard at just the right moment, they can limit his and Magic’s effectiveness in the half-court offense. Philadelphia has played with enough defensive energy to limit the effectiveness of Orlando guards and wing players for long stretches.

While it is evident Orlando has the better team; the Sixers have more athleticism and have used that to their advantage even after making bone-headed plays. Philly is less than intimidating 24-17 and 18-20-1 ATS at home and they are 11-22 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 99 or more points a game this season.

This is a young team that can be fueled by emotion, with Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young leading the way. They’ve learned in the first two games the Magic are not focused enough about playing hard for four quarters and can be had with steadier play. Orlando does present a different challenge on the road, where they are 27-14 SU and ATS. The Magic were not as magical at the end of the season in the bright blue uniforms, with .500 record in last ten tries.

Bookmaker.com has Philadelphia as 3.5-point home underdogs with a total of 191 and they are 10-3 ATS on the receiving end of 4.5 or fewer points at the Wachovia Center. Orlando is a slick 12-4 ATS in road games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season, but just 4-9 ATS as favorites in last 13 contests.

One thing to watch for has been the bizarre behavior of Magic coach Stan Van Gundy's courtside manner. Van Gundy has been incredibly frustrated, visibly berating players, which isn’t the brightest idea come playoff time. (Maybe their was more to Pat Riley taking over in Miami when they won the title than we heard) His actions and wild-eyed looks bring to mind the crazed looks of former Dallas coach Avery Johnson in the finals against the Heat, which ultimately became his demise.

If the 76ers can get Orlando off their game and play shoddy defense, they’ll pull the upset and improve to 39-17 ATS versus teams who average seven or less steals a game. This contest will be on ESPN2 starting at 8:05 Eastern.

Portland at Houston

Houston governed the opener of the series and didn’t play especially well in the second game, but still lost by only four, 107-103. Portland made a number of fine adjustments, both physically and mentally to even up series at one.

The Blazers doubled Yao Ming more frequently, fronting him with Joel Przybilla and having backside support from Greg Oden. Though Ming said he expected such tactics, he didn’t respond well to it, with 11 points and eight rebounds, while getting into foul trouble.

It's a combination," Rockets coach Rick Adelman said of the problems getting Yao touches. "He has to find a way to get position better. He has to find a way to hold their people off. And we have to have patience to look for him. We ran some stuff and he came in the middle with a guy on his back and we chucked it up there." Houston has covered five of last six off a straight up defeat.

Portland also brought a more aggressive outlook and it especially paid off for its two best players. Guard Brandon Roy was almost unstoppable with 42 points and LaMarcus Aldridge had 27 points and 12 rebounds.

Now we know what we have to do," Aldridge said. "We have to be physical with these guys and play with confidence." The Blazers are 26-10 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.

The chess match continues and it is Houston’s turn to make move. The effort will certainly have to be increase from Game 2, with Ming, Shane Battier and Luis Scola playing more like they did on the first contest. The Rockets are 19-10 ATS off one or more losses this season, winning by average of 7.3 points per game. They have to return to keeping Roy in virtual square-shaped defensive box on the floor, always having defender in his face and Scola has to reassert aggressiveness against Aldridge.

Houston’s a six-point favorite, with total of 185. The Rockets have won 10 of last 11 (5-6 ATS) at Toyota Center against Portland and this could be defensive tussle. The Trailblazers are 12-4 UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more and the Rockets are 11-3 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more this season. This Western Conference confrontation begins at 9:35 Eastern on ESPN.

NBA Sunshine StateTeams in Peril

The Orlando Magic had built an 18-point lead on Philadelphia in the series opener and looked as relaxed and comfortable as riding “It’s a Small World” at nearby Disney World. Evidently, Orlando must have visions of Tomorrowland and started thinking about Game Two instead of finishing off the first four quarters. Well, quicker then the 13-story fall from the Twilight Zone Tower of Terror, Orlando was completely discombobulated and were upset by the 76ers 100-98 as 10-point home favorites.

Coming into the playoffs, whispers were being passed around like candy that the Magic had gone soft when they had a chance to take second seed in the East and lost four of last six games. Orlando’s collapse was virtually unforeseen since they were 48-4 this season when leading after three quarters. They also were 52-1 this season when leading with five minutes remaining and held a four point lead Sunday with that much time on the clock.

The Magic will have every reason to believe they should rebound and win next contest, since they are 13-2 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points and 18-6 against the spread if the defeat was six or less points. However, history and numbers crunching are cause from concern.

Start with Orlando might win this conflict, but it is bad omen to lose opening game, as they are 0-9 in series after falling in first contest. The Sixers were able to comeback because of a combination of getting hot from long range and hapless perimeter defense by Magic players.

Philly was the worst three-point shooting team in the NBA at 31.8 percent, however, faulty coverage late in the game saw the Sixers end up draining seven of 12 for the game. As poise-less coach Stan Van Gundy was pleading with his team to cover up in transition in the fourth quarter, it was too late and the black-clad 76er’s were brimming with confidence.

Oddsmakers at Betjamaica.com are not buying what Philly did and made them 10.5-point underdogs again with total of 193.5. You can’t argue, the Sixers are 4-12 ATS when playing against club with 70 percent or higher win percentage this season and the likelihood of Andre Iguodala and his teammates making that many three’s again and holding the Magic to 5-18 beyond the arc is foolish, right?

Further north in Georgia, Miami thought they were primed for big effort against division rival Atlanta. If South Beach is the haven for beautiful people to stroll along the beach, than the Heat looked like a couple of 300-pounders in thongs the way they played.

A friend of yours truly said Dwayne Wade and Joe Johnson shouldn’t be in the same conversation talking about elite guards in the NBA, and while this may be true over the long term, it wasn’t Sunday. Atlanta showed a complete disregard for the other Heat players and attacked Wade from every angle and he turned the ball over eight times, while making just over a third (8-21) of his attempts. Johnson looked much more comfortable in converting seven of 16 shots.

Miami scored 43 points the last three quarters on the way to 64 total and looked every bit as young a team as they are. “There is an element of unknown with this group," coach Erik Spoelstra said before the game. "None of us knows what to expect."

Basketball is a team game and most post-game comments by Miami players centered on “we didn’t do this” or “we didn’t do that”, yet the fact is each player has to accept accountability for dreadful individual performances. The Pendulum Theory is custom-made for Game Two; nonetheless, the Heat is 4-13 ATS revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more.

It’s not wise to presume Atlanta will letdown either. The Hawks were well-schooled to switch under on screens, leaving Wade few opportunities to burst to the rim. This was followed up by boxing D-Wade into areas, leaving few passing lanes open for him to find open teammates.

"I just thought tonight our focus was there from beginning all the way to the end. The defensive schemes were right on the money," said Hawks coach Mike Woodson. "I said from day one in training camp, the Boston Celtics taught us how to play Playoff basketball last year."

Atlanta raised their record at Phillips Arena to 32-10 (24-18 ATS) and they are 8-1 ATS in home games after allowing 85 points or less this season. The Hawks are five point favorites to extend series lead to 2-0 and have won five in a row at home against Miami (3-2 ATS).

The teams from the Sunshine State better shine or vacation will start early for these two NBA squads.

Day 2 of NBA Playoff Hoops

The second day of the postseason gets underway with another four-pack of first round games. If you thought yesterday’s games were difficult to pick, todays might even be worse with teams like Utah, Philadelphia and New Orleans limping worse coming into the playoffs than Martin Crane, “Frasier’s” dad. The Lakers are reportedly on a mission and Orlando and Denver has something to prove besides the fact they had an exceptional regular season record.

Utah at L.A. Lakers 3:05 E ABC

On March 23, the Utah Jazz had just won their third game in a row against Houston and was playing their best defense of the season, looking primed for playoff push. Since that game, Jazz has hit mostly flat notes with 4-8 record (2-10 ATS) and the defense vanished. On the season, Utah capitulated 100.9 points per game, in their last dozen, a whopping 110 PPG. With this kind of effort, having to face the highest scoring team that made the postseason, is like the Guns and Roses album, “Appetite for Destruction”. The Lakers are 11.5-point favorites and Utah is 7-16 ATS as road underdogs. Coach Phil Jackson has to find ways to get Lamar Odom, Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic back in groove physically and mentally, before the competition picks up. Los Angeles has won nine in a row at the Staples Center with 7-1-1 spread record over Utah.

Philadelphia at Orlando 5:35 E TNT

On paper, this doesn’t look like much of a series. Orlando swept Philadelphia 3-0 (though only one game was by double digits) this season and the Magic have won last four games at Amway Arena by 11.5 points per game. The Sixers’ offer little help from the perimeter and could use binoculars, ranked dead last in the NBA in three-point shooting at 31.8 percent. Orlando has crushed teams that shoot below 33 percent from behind the arc with 10-1 ATS record, with average margin of victory 15.6 points per game. For Philly, at least they made it. The 76ers have a dramatic edge in quickness and speed and must play at faster pace and create turnovers for easy baskets. Betjamaica.com has Philadelphia as 9.5-point underdogs with total of 190.5 and they are 6-2 ATS in 5-10-point range receiving points.

Miami at Atlanta 8:05 E TNT

Many of the other series have aspects that point to very specific things occurring one way or the other. This series is absolutely up for grabs, with the team that can play under control and harness emotions your winner. Atlanta has better players who are wilder and can act crazier than Hulk Hogan daydreaming about O.J. The Hawks Josh Smith is either really good or no-show and that is from quarter to quarter. Mike Bibby can make three’s and turn the ball over six times. Atlanta won 31 of 41 home games and was 10-4 ATS in most recent home chalk showings. No worries about Dwayne Wade, the dude is rock solid. Jermaine O’Neal used to be force within 15-feet of the basket, but injury and age have deteriorated his skills to the point of just serviceable. Michael Beasley really came on late in the year, but he plays defense like the man he is guarding has a rash. Miami is catching five-points and is 10-20 ATS versus teams who jack-up 18 or more three-point shots a game this season.

New Orleans at Denver 10:35 E TNT

Denver had a special regular season tying the franchise record for wins at 54. Though the Nuggets are merely average defensively at 100.9 points per game conceded, they make plays and have the offensive capabilities of laying out an opponent that has problems scoring like New Orleans. Denver is favored by six-points and that is as unsettling as Joaquin Phoenix as a rap singer. The Nuggets have crumbled come playoff time with wretched 2-16 and 3-15 ATS playoff record. New Orleans had a chance for fourth seed, but 2-6 (3-5 ATS) record in last eight contests lowered them to seventh slot. Chris Paul and David West must have Peja Stojakovic find the range against a mercurial Nuggets perimeter defense. The Hornets can sting Denver by creating turnovers and protecting the ball themselves. New Orleans has covered seven of last nine in the Mile High City.

A sad day in baseball

Great winner on the best system yesterday, which ended up being our only one. I had meeting this morning thus wasn’t able to get everything together at 3Daily Winners today. I had the Top Trend picked out last night and as I put this in I have no idea on any scores. This will not count since the game had already begun. The Best System just missed our 80 percent standard, nonetheless has been sweet this season in the NBA. Every now and again I get the urge to make a silly parlay wager (though my intention clearly is to win) and I list it below. Good Luck.

My condolences to the Nick Adenhart family. The Angels are my favorite American League team and though I always bet with my head and not my heart, this young man had bright future with the Halos. What a terrible waste. The others that perished in the crash are not sports figures, yet the grief of loved ones in their families should also be mentioned. Whatever happens to the person that committed this crime, may he be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law and forever have nightmares about what they did.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY OVER on road teams like Philadelphia, where the total is greater than or equal to 200, after a close loss by three points or less against opponent, after scoring 100 points or more four straight games. This will not be official play, however might be worth looking into with a 42-12 record, 77.7 percent and has been sharp 7-1 this season.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Cincinnati Reds are 14-3 against the money line after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more since last season.

Free Hockey Selection -3) Going to play around tonight for grins and take three very large NHL favorites, Vancouver, Washington and Pittsburgh and make them a three-teamer. If I’m correct a $25 wager will pay out about $38.50.

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Selection Sunday Plays (None in college)

The Oklahoma City Thunder didn’t have any, being outscored by 11 points in the fourth quarter against Phoenix, giving us a limp 1-2 day. The LLC had a winner yesterday and is more divided in college basketball today, thus enough fellows like a certain NBA team. No real stellar basketball trends, thus we head to head to the ice. On a similar note, no fabulous system plays, the best of the bunch is 76.4 percent and involves the Clippers. (Yuck) Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like New Jersey. after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points second half of the season. This NBA system is not bad at 39-12 ATS over the last five years.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The St. Louis Blues are 9-1 against the money line against opponent’s average who average four power plays or less a game in the second half of the year this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has no outstanding consensus, but three guys are playing Philadelphia 76ers with no dissenters.

NBA: Favorites or Dogs Post All-Star Break?

The All-Star Break gave players a chance to rest up, party, relax, or do whatever they so desire in the few days off they have. Coaches and general managers have the time to look more closely at their teams to come up with a strategy for the rest of the season. That strategy could even be more so for seasons to come through the addition or subtraction of players through trades or acquisitions.

Will there be a team that makes a second half push to make the playoffs similar to the way Philadelphia did last season rallying from an 18-30 SU record with their 22-12 run to grab a playoff berth? The 76ers cashed tickets during that amazing turnaround at a 61.8% clip. Even more amazing was Houston’s second-half thrust going 33-8 SU, 27-12 ATS, in their final 41 games. They rallied from a 22-19 SU, 20-21 ATS mark at the half-way point.

Looking more at the norm, once an NBA season gets past the halfway point, there isn’t much left to the element of surprise. Squads that are outperforming their preseason expectations, such as the Atlanta Hawks, are now common knowledge. There is no sneaking up on the competition, no catching the other squad with their guard down.

Teams that haven’t lived up to what their outlook was before the season tipped off, like the Phoenix Suns, aren’t going to be feared by their competitors. There probably won’t be as many “look aheads” for teams who will be playing Phoenix in their next game after they play their current one.

While teams and players have some preconceived notions on what to expect from the competition based on what has transpired so far this year, so do the public and the oddsmakers. So does this mean there might be some advantages and betting edges that we can find which will help us win more wagers than we lose? Let’s see if we can find some.

I wanted to compare how teams do in the second half of the season using a few qualifiers to see if the first half is much different than the second half. The All-Star break comes slightly past the true 41-game halfway median with teams playing at least 50 games already. As my measuring stick, I called the first half of the season up to game #49 and the second half involved games 50 to 82. I went back in the exercise to the beginning of the 2003 season. Playoff games were not included in the data sample and I only looked at against the spread and Over/Under records, not straight-up marks.

I first compared a very basic situation: home favorites with no additional qualifiers. There was very little difference in the ATS numbers with home faves covering 50.9% of the time in the second half but not quite as good in the first half, 49.4%. The comparative Over/Under records were very close to the same.

I then made my home favorite a double-digit fave and we did get a little more differential with the home team in the second half improving to 51.7% versus 47.0% in the first half. Again, the O/U records were very close.

I then looked at home underdogs and got an opposite result as before. Instead of the home team doing better after game 50+ as compared to earlier in the campaign, the home team, the dog, now did worse, 45.0%, 302-369, compared to a 581-599 record, 49.2%.

Where I got some very distinct numbers was when I made the home dogs getting ten or more points. Again, an exact opposite depending upon which half of the season the game was played in. The first half saw home double-digit dogs cover the spread 61.3% of the time, with the second half HD’s suffering a huge drop to only covering the number 26.7% of the time. That is a very large dichotomy.

So far we have data supporting that favorites do a better job in covering the point spread in the second half of the season versus the first half with the bigger favorites doing even much better.
I next wanted to test the belief that as the season wears on, playing a back-to-back game has a bigger effect on teams than it does earlier in the season when players are fresher. When you factor in travel to an 82-game season, the number of games played has to have a cumulative effect on the players.

Home favorites with zero rest playing in the first 49 games covered the point spread 48.0% of the time of the season. This improved slightly to 50.0% from game 50 onward. Where there was a more significant second half of the season improvement was when a home fave’s opponent is playing without any rest. There our home fave jumped from a 49.1% ATS mark to a 54.2% success ratio.

Looking at the home underdogs having no rest in a game, there is a difference from the first part of the season covering the spread 47.0% of the time to 41.4% for the second half. Even a bigger swing is noted if you make this game between two conference foes. The first half ATS tally climbs to 52.2% ATS for the home dog while the second half drops to beating the number only 35.1% of the time.

Not having any rest clearly affects the underdog team much more in the second half of the season than the team that is favored. We can make the assumption that the underdog team is usually the lower quality team, especially if they are getting points at home. But let’s ignore who is favored or getting points in a game and just look at the teams’ winning percentages. Do higher quality teams win more games against the number against poor quality teams in the second half than they did in the first half?

The answer to that question is yes as teams with a 60% winning percentage playing a team who is winning less than 40% of their game covers the spread only 45.6% during the first 49 games. However, the good team’s ATS record improves to 52.2% from game 50 on. In this scenario of good versus bad team, there is quite a swing in the totals with the first-half games going Over the lined total at a 52.7% frequency. This is the opposite in the second half of the season with the Under happening 56.3% of the time.

Good teams improve in their ATS rate in the final part of the season when they are going against bad teams along with a dichotomy in Over/Unders.

Last year I wrote an article about a high number of teams at both ends of the ATS spectrum around the mid-point of the season. There were seven teams covering the point spread at a rate above 60%. In doing research I learned that beginning with the 2002 campaign, there have been a TOTAL of four instances when a team has finished the season with a 60% or better ATS winning percentage. And, what was even more amazing, two of those four times a team barely made it to that level with an exact 60% ATS winning percentage.

I stated it might be a good time to consider fading or avoiding betting on those seven teams as I did not believe that number of teams would maintain such a high rate of covering the point spread. Only three teams finished at 60%+ last season, which is still a high number in relationship to the past.

Last season at the time of my article there were four teams winning at a 40% or worst rate against the spread. And just like the number of high percentage winning teams, that is quite unusual. It had only happened a total of four times the prior five seasons that a team failed to cover more than 40% of their games! All four of those teams last season climbed above a 40% ATS rate, even though the Clippers came close at only 40.4%.

This season we only have two teams at or above a 60% mark covering the number, Orlando and Cleveland. However, we do have four teams below the Mendoza line of 40% ATS: Phoenix, Washington, Detroit, and Memphis, with a fifth team very close at 40.4%, Toronto. If history holds true, most of those teams should climb above the 40% ATS winning rate.

Jim Kruger is the man at Vegas Sports Authority.

Monday's Best Bets + Rant

Good way to close the week with a 2-1 Sunday. Today’s all-around sports window is a little light and no conventional systems are noteworthy. I’ll step out a bit, thanks to our friends at StatFox and present a 80 percent system in college basketball, focusing just on the first half of the game, which has scintillating results this season. The Top Trend comes from the NBA and looks after how the Sixers play at home this month. Good Luck.

I’d like your opinion on something I noticed that started a couple of years ago in college basketball and is common place today. A few years ago, the coaches thru the NCAA rules committee changed the timeout status to include a grand total of six timeouts per team plus media timeouts. (There are specific rules in place for when a coach calls a 75-second timeout as opposed to 30-second, which eliminates media timeout. Yes, it is confusing) With all these timeouts the flow of the game is interrupted on a continual basis and virtually every coach will call a time out at the first hint the opposing team will go off on 6-0 run.

This really makes the game choppier and is another example of young people being coddled. Ben Howland of UCLA was the first coach I really noticed calling several timeouts in the first half of a game. Though I agree in principle with the idea you can’t necessarily win the game in the first half, but you can certainly lose it, the players need to learn to fight through a bit of adversity to become better players and team, instead of the coach calling time out at the first sign of trouble.
Besides the flow, these coaches who are paid to win, will often now overuse timeouts to stay in games and will have just one or two once the under four minute media timeout is taken.

Wouldn’t it be more beneficial to have three or possibly four timeouts in the final minutes, when the game is really on the line? The coaches are so consumed with getting to winning time; they waste a valuable commodity when they need it the most.

Consider a tight ball game could have a tie-score with a minute to go and had been close throughout. Because of the nature of basketball, runs occur and each team might have had a lead by seven points as some juncture, yet the head coach needlessly had so little faith in his players to fight thru a dull period, he kept calling timeouts and now with the game in the balance, he’s got one T.O. left.

Do you agree, disagree or could care less. Chime in.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road underdogs like Kansas, vs. the first half line (Kansas +2 presumably), off three straight wins against conference rivals, against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins. The record on this unique system is 44-11 ATS and white hot at 7-0 this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Philadelphia 76ers are 10-0 ATS in home games in February games over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) With nobody I would describe as hot in wagering at the moment, three Left Coast Connection consensus plays. The Missouri Tigers at 75 percent and the Calgary Flames and Charlotte Bobcats at 100 percent. (The latter two each had five bettors)

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