Know your College Football Coaches before wagering

For those that love to wager on college football, it comes in handy to know certain tendencies of the head coach. Though virtually every coach could care less about the point spread on any game they are involved in coaching, word will filter down thru various channels that high-profile alumni with large banking accounts wouldn’t mind the home team covering a spread against a particular opponent. Though no head coach will worry about such a trivial matter consciously leading into a contest, given the right set of circumstances late in a contest with his team comfortably ahead, but not covering the spread, he might be inclined to run up the score.

Though there is no way to prove a coaches motive, in 1995, coach Tom Osborne of Nebraska had the No.1 team in the country heading into last regular season game against Oklahoma at Lincoln. The Cornhuskers were monstrous 34-point favorites and basically was toying with the Sooners, leading 30-0 late in the game. In the final drive, Nebraska went for a first down THREE times on fourth down and eventually scored a touchdown to cover the spread, with 37-0 shutout. If I hadn’t seen it with my own eyes, I never would have believed it.

Another example was last season when Florida hosted Miami in Gainesville. The Gators were 23-point favorites against the Hurricanes and that night despite dominating the action, led just 23-3 in the final minutes. Urban Meyer could have easily run out the clock deep in Miami territory, but instead had Tim Tebow throw two passes towards end zone before settling for field goal and a Push.

Most bettors might know about the head coach where they live, or even the coaches within the conference. Only a select few would be able to recall all the different variables from all the head coaches in the FBS.

Here is a breakdown of the top coaches in several areas based on latest runs. (Coaches only at present school)

Coaches with best home ATS records-

Troy Calhoun – Air Force -8-2
Chris Ault -Nevada – 19-7
Kirk Ferentz – Iowa – 39-22
Garry Patterson – TCU – 36-19
Al Groh - Virginia- 31-18

Notes- Randy Edsall of Connecticut deserves to be mentioned with 26-16 ATS at Rentschler Stadium. Miami’s Randy Shannon has made the Hurricanes at Play Against team in their new home with 3-9 ATS mark. Bob Stoops might have a harder time keeping up with 35-25 ATS record in Norman without Sam Bradford at quarterback for unknown period of time. Charley Weis has making up to do to Irish bettors with 11-16 ATS mark.

Coaches with best road ATS records-

Turner Gill –Buffalo- 17-6
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mark Dantonio – Mich. State 8-4
Charlie Weatherbie –UL- Monroe – 26-16
Jim Grobe – Wake Forest– 28-19

Notes-In years past, Mark Richt of Georgia would have been on this list, however 3-5-1 spread record of late drops him to still solid 31-22-1 ATS mark. Mark Snyder is in trouble in his fifth season at Marshall and for good reason with 3-22 and 6-17 ATS record. As good as Chris Ault is at home, he is a dismal 14-22 ATS after being spanked by Notre Dame earlier. Mike Sanford of UNLV is looking to finish .500 or better in Sin City and in order to so he needs the Rebels to be better than 0-7 ATS against .500 or less teams.

Coaches with best favorite ATS records-

Troy Calhoun – Air Force -9-2
Mark Mangino –Kansas -25-9
Mike Gundy –Okla. State – 15-7
Chris Ault- Nevada – 21-12
Steve Spurrier – South Carolina -14-7

Notes-Considering the number of large figures Florida has to overcome; Urban Meyer’s 27-18 ATS record is fairly impressive. Though Wake Forest is great play as underdog, they are 19-28 ATS as chalk. On a similar note, Vanderbilt has is off first bowl game in 27 years, yet flounders as favorite with 6-13 ATS record. The price isn’t right on Mike Price from UTEP, sporting unflattering 10-19 against the spread record in this role.

Coaches with best underdog ATS records-

Skip Holtz – ECU- 20-7
Butch Davis – UNC – 8-3
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 14-6
Turner Gill –Buffalo- 20-10
Mack Brown – Texas – 10-5

Notes- Skip Holtz learned from his father about being able to succeed as underdog. The same cannot be said about Ohio State’s Jim Tressel who is pedestrian 9-8 versus the oddsmaker. Mentioned Wake’s coach Grobe above, 31-17 ATS will swell any bankroll when the Demon Deacons are catching points. Two shockers from the desert. Mike Stoops’ Wildcats are 20-14 ATS receiving points, while Arizona State’s Dennis Erickson is 1-7 ATS.

Best coaches Off a SU Win, ATS records-

Troy Calhoun – Air Force -13-5
Turner Gill –Buffalo- 11-4
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mark Mangino- Kansas – 27-12
Dick Tomey – S.J. State -12-6

Notes- Rick Brooks of Kentucky has had success in Lexington and his squads follow up success with 18-10 ATS performance. With Missouri greatly improved the last few years, it easy to forget Gary Pinkel is 24-27 ATS after a W. Kyle Whittingham’s perfect season helped raise Utah to 20-12 ATS with victory after victory. Though Pat Fitzgerald is well liked in the Windy City, he’s detested by Northwestern backers with 4-13 ATS record after the ‘Cats have conquered opponent.

Best coaches Off a SU Loss, ATS records-

Pete Carroll – USC -10-3
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mike Leach – Texas Tech -21-10
Bobby Bowden –Florida State- 43-23
Randy Edsall– UConn – 28-15

Notes- Any sports bettor should have made a large chunk of money following the exploits of the Top Five in this category. The same cannot be said of Idaho’s Robb Akey who is 4-13 ATS following a loss. Dan Hawkins is losing support by the minute in Boulder and 7-14 ATS record isn’t making matters better. What about blustery Fresno State head coach Pat Hill, who loves the big moment, but is 19-33 ATS off a loss.

College Football Betting Saturday

It’s a busy Saturday of college football and sports bettors should be ready with a number of compelling televised matchups. The most important contest of the day has USC traveling to Ohio to tackle the Buckeyes; however that isn’t the only one. Notre Dame and Michigan get to prove which program is further along on rebuilding process. Lane Kiffin and Tennessee will try to extract revenge for last year’s loss at UCLA. West Virginia is also looking to settle a score with East Carolina, after being dressed down by the Pirates last season. Finally, it’s the SEC opener for South Carolina and Georgia, with both teams seeking offense. It promises to be quite a day. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

East Carolina (+6, 44) at West Virginia 3:30E

Last year, East Carolina burst onto the scene with opening game upsets over Virginia Tech and West Virginia. The Pirates went on to win the Conference USA championship. With 16 returning starters, they’ll try and take the next step in beating a major BCS school on the road. In a league known for wide-open offenses, coach Skip Holtz went for defense. The D-line is a particular is a strength, with the likes of Jay Ross and Linval Joseph on the inside at tackle and C.J. Wilson and Scotty Robinson covering up the ends. Whatever they miss, last year’s leading tackler, middle linebacker Nick Johnson cleans up. East Carolina is 13-3 ATS on the road the last four seasons.

A new era of West Virginia football continues without Pat White at quarterback. Jarrett Brown is the new big on campus and he’ll hopefully lead a more varied attack with four or five exciting targets to throw to like slot receiver Jock Sanders. The one mainstay is running back Noel Devine, who will now be the featured runner. Devine ran for over 1200 yards a season ago and with White no longer toting the pigskin as much, the junior scat back could add 300 to 500 yards to his total if the offensive line comes together. The Mountaineers are mediocre 11-18-1 ATS as home favorites since 2003.

West Virginia had seven-game winning streak snapped last year at East Carolina, but is still 17-3 and 5-3 ATS all-time against the Pirates. The Mountaineers are perfect 12-0 at home versus the squad from Greenville, NC and are 4-1 ATS. Last year was the first time in 79 games the ‘Teers had been held without touchdown and they’ll have serious revenge on their minds this season. Just keep in mind East Carolina is 10-2 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.

UCLA (+10, 45) at Tennessee ESPN 4:00E

Last year’s 27-24 overtime loss at UCLA set the wheels in motion for Philip Fullmer to be done as coach in Knoxville. Two games later, a home drubbing by Florida showed just how far the talent level has slipped at Tennessee. Lane Kiffin left the Oakland Raiders in controversy and created plenty being hired in Tennessee. With one impressive win over Western Kentucky under their belts, this is a game the Vols must have if they want to go bowling this season. The offensive line returns four starters and they got off to great start with the Vols runners totaling 380 yards on the ground last week. Granted, the competition was much, but quarterback Jonathan Crompton appeared more poised and mature. Look for Tennessee to run the ball with a decent collection of backs and Crompton throwing mainly play-action passes to better receivers than a year ago who lack experience. The Vols are 7-14 ATS vs. present Pac-10 teams.

It’s year two in Rick Neuheisel’s return to UCLA campus, however it might be only a little better than last year’s 4-8 opening salvo. The starting signal caller is red-shirt freshman Kevin Prince and the Bruins offensive staff likes his ability, however, will have to be patient with his inexperience. The offensive line and running backs are strictly generic, which will limit production. The defense will be the strength of this squad with solid performers up and down the starting 11. They will have to pressure and confuse Crompton, similar to last year and hopefully force a few miscues to place offense in position to score. UCLA is 8-2 ATS as underdogs when opponents are in revenge spot.

The Bruins are 6-2 against the spread vs. Tennessee and are 20-7 ATS the first two weeks of the season. Off last week’s rout of Western Kentucky, the Volunteers are 8-3-1 ATS at Neyland Stadium as a home favorite the last three years and are 9-0 UNDER in home games after a win by 28 or more points. This could be table-setter for big trip to Gainesville next week.

Notre Dame (-3, 48) at Michigan ABC 3:30E

If adversity builds character, then Rich Rodriguez and Charley Weis are two men well-versed in character issues to sell their respective teams on. No coach in America probably is looking forward to game day more than RichRod as controversy follows him around like a shadow. Rodriguez primarily stayed with Tate Forcier as his quarterback last week against Western Michigan and the results were impressive in Michigan’s 31-7 victory. The offense showed more continuity with everyone more experienced and knowing what the expectations are concerning assignments. The Wolverines should be nastier on defense with defensive coordinator Greg Robinson in charge of that side of the ball. Nevertheless, he installed a new 3-4 concept, which means a learning curve for a team that is 14-21-1 ATS at the Big House since 2004.

Notre Dame gave a stunning performance at home against a pretty good Nevada club winning 35-0. Weis’ Fighting Irish will take this act on the road for the first time in 2009. Offensively, Notre Dame is expected to be score points all season with junior Jimmy Clausen in command, throwing to a receiver contingent as good as any in the country. The offensive line has to come off the ball and open holes for an above average stable of backs and if Notre Dame can run effectively, the offense should really hum. From athletic perspective, this is best defense in South Bend in years. The question is how badly will the youth hurt them? The Irish are 3-6 and 2-7 ATS in road openers.

This is one of those crazy college football series, with the underdog 12-2 ATS, which has included five upsets in last seven meetings. How Forcier handles the Irish onslaught of pressure will go a long way in determining outcome. If he can make big plays, the Wolverines have a shot, if not, Notre Dame should win. In watching both teams, the most striking aspect is RichRod’s team should be where Weis’ squad is next season. Michigan is 0-7 ATS after playing a game at home, the Fighting Irish are 10-1 UNDER in road games over the last three seasons.

South Carolina (+7, 38) at Georgia ESPN 7:00E

South Carolina has been dying to have a top level football program for some time now; the problem is history doesn’t back them up. The Gamecocks had won 28 games in last four seasons for only the second time in school history (granted, more chances to win with expanded schedule) during Steve Spurrier’s four years. Off the 7-3 defensive struggle with N.C. State, it’s fairly clear Spurrier has a team that should finish above .500, with a losing SEC record. They can attempt to alter people’s perceptions with an upset between the hedges at Georgia. Sophomore QB Stephen Garcia has to be the leader of an offense that has many deficiencies. The defense showed they have ability in holding the Wolfpack to three points and the Gamecocks arrive in Athens 7-3-1 ATS as SEC road underdogs.

Georgia got an early wakeup call at Oklahoma State and were handled 24-10. The Bulldogs have ample talent in supply with one of the best offensive lines in the SEC, however they were held in check for 95 total yards last week. Senior QB Joe Cox, can’t be “no ordinary Joe” like last Saturday and must be more accurate tossing the ball to talented A.J. Green among others. This is big year for defensive coordinator Willie Martinez, with 10 of the 11 projected starters for this SEC showdown either juniors or seniors. Georgia has surrendered 30 or more points in last 53 games under Martinez compared to four times in previous four years before his arrival. The Bulldogs are just 4-9 ATS the last four years as conference favorites.

These matchups have been low scoring, tight contests. Georgia was the last team to score 20 points in this confrontation in 2004 and six of last eight have been decided by seven points or less. The wagering public has taken the total from 41 to present level. The Gamecocks are 16-4 UNDER the first two weeks of the season and the Bulldogs are 23-9 UNDER in the first month of a new campaign. The visitor is 5-2-1 ATS of late, with the favorite 7-4-1 against the number.

USC (-6.5, 45) at Ohio State ESPN 8:00E

Though it will be downplayed as such, every Big Ten fan (except possibly in Ann Arbor) would relish an Ohio State victory, even if they hate the Buckeyes. The Big Ten could be a running joke on the new Jay Leno nightly show if they are clobbered again by the Trojans. What’s unfortunate is Jim Tressel’s teams just haven’t been able to beat Florida and USC in the last several seasons in the biggest games and now they are looked upon as outcasts. A strong case can be made the Buckeyes are Phil Mickelson playing in the Tiger Woods era, among the very best, just not the best. Sophomore sensation Terrelle Pryor has enough faith in himself that he can take Ohio State to next plateau starting now. The Buckeyes have had success against Pac-10 teams, but not against USC (0-4 ATS).

Does any team relish the spotlight more than Pete Carroll’s squad? When the lights come, USC is usually at their best and they are 11-1 SU and ATS in initial road game of the season. The offensive line is Top 3 in every preseason publication and seldom is there a short supply of running backs at USC. Junior RB Joe McKnight is starting to play up to expectations when he hit the USC campus and last week had a scintillating 145-yard, two touchdown game on 14 carries. Freshman Matt Barkley will have to play his way out of the starting job and looks to be the next great Trojans field general. The defense lost a ton of NFL talent, however no one is thinking the replacements won’t be top level.

Statement games are a USC specialty and they are 13-3 and 12-4 ATS against Top 10 teams since 2001. The Ohio State defense must finds ways to rattle the youngster Barkley and possibly create turnovers that lead to points. The Trojans are 36-18 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game and 8-1 ATS in non-conference games. Unless Buckeyes come up big, it will be the same old “overrated” mantra about the Big Ten.