Big 12 Preview

b>2010 BIG 12 CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

They gained notoriety as the ‘Sure We Cheat’ (SWC) league in the 1970’s. They then evolved into the Big 8 Conference before expanding into the Big 12. Where they go from here, no one knows.

What we know for sure is the Big 12 Conference is back for another college football season in 2010. And we can also likely expect another lackluster performance from this loop come bowl time.

Granted, Texas made it to the BCS championship game last year, a game in which Oklahoma has made four appearances this past decade. But the truth of the matter is unless the Big12 can improve on its blasé 39-38 SU and 32-45 ATS mark in bowl games since 2000, they will likely go down as another also-ran major conference that continues to shoot itself in the foot thanks to lackluster play on the defensive side of the ball.

In closing, despite the defensive deficiencies of the rest of the conference, beware of the Sooners. Other than the game with Texas, they figure to be double-digit favorites in every other contest this season. Remember, the last time Bob Stoops lost five games in the same season his team went on to go 13-0 and win a national championship (2000).

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

North Division

COLORADO – *9 / 7

TEAM THEME: ROCKY MOUNTAIN LOW
When a coach goes just 10-22 in league play and his team finishes LAST in total conference offense two years running, one would figure a coaching change is in order. Not in Boulder. The Buffaloes rehired Dan Hawkins because they could not afford the cost of a buyout and a rehire. Talk about a sign of the times! The only team in the Big 12 not to use a spread offense, Colorado will turn to an offensive line that returns all five starters. A soft seven-game home schedule, only four true road games, revenge aplenty and an over-abundance of playing time for true freshman over the last three seasons, could actually find the Buffaloes roaming in a minor bowl. If not, the only sign you may see around the Boulder area is one that says ‘For Sale’ – no matter what the cost.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Kansas (11/6)

IOWA STATE – *8 / 5

TEAM THEME: PEEPING PAUL
When newly-hired HC Paul Rhoads first met with the team, he told them that they were going to win a bowl game in 2009. Did Paul see something nobody else did? After all, the Cyclones had gone 2-10 in 2008 and had not won a bowl game since 2004. Despite an offense that ranked last in the Big 12 in 2009, Rhoads was true to his word as an Insight Bowl victory over Minnesota capped off a surprising 7-6 season. The offensive numbers should improve in 2010 as eight starters return to Ames, including QB Austen Arnuad. Defensively, only five starters are back in the mix but the linebacking unit – the strength of the defense – returns three starters including tackling machine, Jesse Smith. Here’s some scholarly advice for Rhoads: with nine winning teams and eight bowlers on the docket, we suggest you take a long look at the schedule before making any promises.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Nebraska (11/6)

KANSAS – 8 / 7

TEAM THEME: WEIGHT AND SEE
After a mistreatment allegation, the big man has left the campus as Mark Mangino’s eight-year stint in Lawrence comes to an abrupt end. New HC Turner Gill knows he’ll have some big pants to fill and the former Nebraska star will bring along some heavy-hitting coordinators in Chuck Long and Carl Torbush. Star QB Todd Reesing and his 11,194 total yards and 90 TD’s have also departed. Not to worry. Gill turned a dormant Buffalo program into a conference champion in three years. Imagine what he could do with a team that has won 25 games over the past three seasons and returns 15 starters, including an entire offensive line. We realize the Big 12 is a large leap from the MAC but we also recall that Gill is a perfect 20-0 versus the conference in his playing days as a star QB. Been there – done that!
PASS

KANSAS STATE – 5 / 7

TEAM THEME: PHASE TWO, YEAR TWO
Kansas State’s silver-haired HC Bill Snyder proved age is only a number when he guided the 2009 Wildcats to bowl-eligible status. After a 3-year hiatus, the 70-year old Snyder returned to the Manhattan sidelines and looked to shore up a defense that was scorched for over 36 PPG, 479 YPG and 5.2 YPC the previous season. And shore up he did. The ‘Cats held seven opponents to under 20 points as the defense improved by 13 PPG and an incredible 139 YPG while allowing just 3.5 YPC. The combination of a now well-fortified defense (seven returning starters), a top-notch RB in Daniel Thomas (the Big 12 newcomer of the year) and a favorable early schedule (first true road game not until mid-October) holds promise for 2010. Old habits never die.
PLAY ON: vs. Oklahoma St (10/30)

MISSOURI – *8 / 8

TEAM THEME: CAT SCRATCH FEVER
Expect a big year from Missouri in 2010. Many believe that following their breakout season in 2007 (12-2), Gary Pinkel recruited a slew of talent – and that investment is about to pay some dividends. Not only do the Tigers return eight starters on each side of the ball, but 30 of the 44 players on the season-ending two-deep roster were either freshmen or sophomores – the second most in the nation last year. A season opening five-game schedule that includes three home games against FBS foes with a combined 8-28 record, a fourth home game against McNeese State and a neutral site match-up with 3-9 Illinois, should help these Tigers catch their tail early. If the Cats are going to have the year we think they’ll have, a 5-0 start is critical with only two of the season’s final seven games at home, including trips to Lincoln and Lubbock. Nonetheless, we’ll take the bait.
PLAY ON: vs. Nebraska (10/30)

NEBRASKA – *10 / 7

TEAM THEME: TWO YEARS GONE BY
Have the Huskers turned the corner? Bearing in mind they ranked No. 116 in scoring defense in 2007 (37.9 PPG) – the year before HC Bo Pelini arrived – and No. 1 last season (10.4 PPG), the answer is a resounding yes. Also consider they were 1-20 SU versus Top 20 ranked teams before a promising 3-2 showing last season. The former NFL assistant also has the Kids of the Corn playing their best ball late in the season, posting a stout 9-2 record from November out, including 7-1 in November alone (Bill’s Callahan’s previous 4-year regime only won a total of six November contests). 17 returning starters, with every ball carrier back in the mix and a favorable schedule that includes Texas at home and is sans Oklahoma, makes Nebraska worthy of a BCS futures play. Is that Springsteen’s ‘Glory Days’ we hear playing in those Lincoln cornfields?
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Colorado (11/26)

South Division

BAYLOR – *7 / 5

TEAM THEME: LET’S GET PHYSICAL
Perhaps no team in the land figures to benefit more from the return of a key player from injury than Baylor, as star QB Robert Griffin III re-claims his starting spot after tearing an ACL in Game Three last season. After a promising 2-1 start, the Bears went into hibernation (2-7) when Griffin went down to stay. HC Art Briles, however, has more than the return of his star on his mind as he looks to address a defense that allowed over 400 YPG in 2009. After the spring game, Briles noted, “Those guys are strong, fast, mean and tough… that’s what they need to be. They need to be aggressive and physical with a bad temper. That’s what we have to get to and that’s the way we have to play, because in the Big 12 South if you’re friendly and nice, you’re going to have a long season.” If RG3 can stay healthy and Briles can impose his will, these Bears will be anything but average.
PASS

OKLAHOMA – *10 / 6

TEAM THEME: KEEPING UP WITH THE JONESES
Despite losing three players in the first four picks of this year’s NFL draft – including Heisman trophy winner and all-time NCAA passing efficiency leader Sam Bradford – 23 full or part-time starters return. Included is SO QB Landry Jones, who led the nation’s freshman QBs in passing yards (3,198) and TD passes (26) last season. His yardage figure was also an OU record, breaking the mark set by Bradford in 2007. Expect Jones to surpass those numbers this season as all-everything RB DeMarco Murray and record-setting WR Ryan Broyles stay onboard the Sooner Schooner in 2010. Whether by land or air, the OU attack shouldn’t miss a beat as Jones and company figure to keep up with the Bradfords. Remember, OU faced the 2nd toughest schedule in the land in 2009 and four of its five losses were by a total of 12 points.
PLAY ON: vs. Texas Tech (11/13)

OKLAHOMA STATE – 6 / 4

TEAM THEME: “O”, NO
It’s not often a 9-win season is considered a bummer. That may have been the case in Stillwater last season, though, when the Cowboys were shut out in their season finale at rival Oklahoma and then held to seven points in a bowl loss to Ole Miss. When the dust settled, a highly-touted, veteran offense saw their production fall 13 points and 120 YPG as injuries, player suspensions and being a ‘marked team’ finally took its toll. The ‘D’ was actually a bright spot last year but with only four starters back in the mix, HC Mike Gundy realizes he may have to win a few shootouts. Enter OC Dana Holgorsen. He brings his playbook from Houston where his offense was tops in the nation last season. Star RB Kendall Hunter is back to tote the pigskin but untested 26-year old JR QB Brandon Weeden takes over for Zac Robinson. It’s time to man up, ‘Boys!
PASS

TEXAS – 6 / 7

TEAM THEME: BIG (12) BULLIES
The Horns were a shoulder-injury short of winning a national championship last season. When QB Colt McCoy went down in the BCS title game, so did Texas’ hopes of beating Alabama. McCoy is off to the NFL and in steps Garrett Gilbert to direct an attack that will be moving away from the spread offense to more of a running game in 2010. This move will take some pressure off Gilbert, the 2008 High School Player of the Year, and hopefully improve a ground game that averaged a mere 148 YPG – their worst since 2002. No such adjustments are needed on the defensive front where the UT rush defense held opponents to a nation-low 72 YPG on the ground. Eight bowlers do roam this year’s schedule but six of those come from the Big 12 where the Horns are 16-1 SU over the last two seasons. The first two games in October will likely decide their fate.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Texas Tech (9/18)

TEXAS A&M – *6 / 9

TEAM THEME: WHO STOPS J.J.?
The Jerrod Johnson show returns to College Station for its final season and it may draw a bigger audience in these parts than ‘Who shot J.R.?’ Johnson, a second-team all Big 12 performer, keyed the 5th best offense in the land by throwing for a school record 3,217 yards and 28 TD’s while adding another 455 yards on the ground. He saved his best performance for Texas, throwing for 342 yards and rushing for 97 more. J.J. is joined by a cast of kids that formed the youngest roster in the nation last year. While the offense will take the lead role, it’s imperative for the defense to add some support. Mike Sherman will rely on new DC Tim DeRuyter to shore up a stop unit that ranked 105th in the nation. DeRuyter, who led Air Force to a No. 11 team defense ranking last season, will have eight starters to work with as he incorporates his 3-4 scheme. With a season-ender at Texas, the finale should be scintillating.
PASS

TEXAS TECH – *8 / 6

TEAM THEME: JAMES GANG
With Craig and Adam James’ approval, Tommy Tuberville steps in to take over for Mike Leach, in one of the major coaching moves in Division 1 this season. After getting unceremoniously dumped by Auburn, Tuberville now walks into the Lubbock fire. Leach won 84 games in his 10 seasons with Tech – and along with Texas and Oklahoma, formed the winningest trio of teams in the nation from the same conference over the last three seasons (276 victories). Tuberville welcomes back 14 returning starters, including QB Taylor Potts. The word, though, is the QB job is open between Taylor and fan favorite Steven Sheffield (rumor has it that whoever completes more passes to Adam in the spring will likely get the nod). Whomever Tuberville decides on, he better make sure of one thing: he leads the Raiders to a bowl – ‘cause the fans sure got used to it with Leach.
PLAY ON: vs. Houston (11/27) – *KEY as dog

College Football Thoughts

College football as we presently know it is about to change. When earlier reports of the Big 10 (11), likely to expand beyond the expanses of its name again, this time everyone took it very seriously. The Big Ten Network has become a cash cow only a few would have imagined at its inception. That forced the SEC (with its better overall sports programs) to jump into bed with ESPN and other entities to “keep up with the Jones”.

The Big Ten has always thought its importance was more than everyone else’s and targeted Texas and other Big 12 schools, like that conference was from the local Goodwill and they could pick and choose what they wanted and everyone would idly sit by and wait and see what the Big Ten wanted to do.

That might have worked 50 years ago, no more. The Pac-10 went on the aggressive and word leaked this past week they wanted half the teams from the Big 12, quickly making it the Little Six.

Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Colorado would join Arizona and Arizona State in league that could be known as – The 16 Pac(k) Conference. (Sponsored by Bud Light of course) While A&M has a huge ego problem about following the Longhorns lead, the fact is they would as big a non-factor in the SEC as Arkansas has become.

This places the Big 12 in a world of hurt. Commissioner Dan Beebe is trying to rectify the situation by keeping Texas, since they are the linchpin; however he seems less inclined to force their hand knowing the Longhorns can do about whatever they want. If the six Big 12 schools go, Missouri might be forced to go to go to the new Big 12 since the previous conference is now the Big 10 and dwindling. (Can you follow this?)

For sports bettors, this will really turn the college sports world upside down. The haves and have not’s will further separate in this revised two class system. Much like the middle class of our country heading downward, the same will be true of sports programs that are presently average. What chance would an Arizona or Arizona State have in football with the Longhorns, Sooners and to a lesser degree the Cowboys from Okie State in the same division? Yes they would have more money, with that satisfaction lasting maybe three years, but what about five seasons of 4-5 to 2-7, with faltering attendance and the revenue gains start going backwards?

And what about the Big 12, if they would manage to survive, Beebe would have to do a Mike Tranghese, the former commish of the Big East and go do some raiding of his own. That might include a quasi- Southwest Conference division of the Big 12, chasing down TCU, Houston, Rice, and SMU and adding possibly Memphis (for basketball purposes) to go along with Kansas, K-State, Baylor and Iowa State.

And what about Notre Dame? The smartest suggestion I’ve seen is for the Big Ten to invite the Irish in all other sports but football. Let them share the money (double-dipping) while keeping their independence in football as long as they add one Big Ten football game per year until their NBC contract expires, essentially making them a full-fledged member by 2015.

While it is true more than enough college football bettors will just want to see a number assigned to any matchup and give a you know what about expansion or reduction, or whatever happens, it will impact many conferences and teams positively and negatively.

Just remember, this is all about MONEY. If you ever hear anybody say it’s not fair to the student-athlete foe this or that get that person’s name and send them an email telling them you are busting them as liars. Much like Wall Street, this only about the cash and while it seems important now, like all money, after awhile it’s just not enough.

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Got a good laugh about defending national champion Alabama asking the SEC to review the schedules of other teams and politely move a few conference games around so the Crimson Tide doesn’t have to play six teams coming off a bye week. I have nothing against Alabama, but that is WEAK.

CBB Tournament Wagering Blog

Thursday March 11 8:24 AM

Disappointments – Colorado-Missouri-Louisville

Colorado was a very popular play yesterday morning among handicappers, having won three in a row, the last against the Red Raiders in convincing fashion and Texas Tech riding a six-game losing streak. I got emails from people asking if this was good play and my response was I don’t like betting conference tournament games after the teams had just met. This usually means both are mediocre, given they would play right away again and anything is possible. The Buffaloes were beaten soundly by Texas Tech, who worked the ball inside which led to 30 free throw attempts (23 made) and outrebounding the Buffs by 10.

A 12th seed defeated a fifth-seed for the second time in the history of the Big 12 tournament as Nebraska knocked off defending tournament champion Missouri. The Tigers were clearly not ready to play after being thumped by Kansas Saturday by 21 and carried the emotional baggage like luggage to Kansas City. The Cornhuskers, a 10.5-point underdog, followed many of the same principles the Jayhawks provided on tape. The Missouri press is beatable on the backside if you go to the rim once you cross midcourt and shot 58.8 percent in winning by 15.

It was typical of Louisville all year and they got what they deserved in upset by Cincinnati. The Bearcats play physical and coach Rick Pitino knew what it would take to down Cincinnati. "The point of emphasis tonight was to rebound the basketball," Pitino said. "We rebound, we win. We knew that. We didn't, we lost. We go home early. Wasted a lot of boosters' money." The Cardinals were dominated on the glass 46-29 and those holding Cards -6 tickets also felt cheated.

Surprises – Notre Dame – Montana

Notre Dame coach Mike Brey deserves all the credit in the world for his team’s remarkable turnaround. Luke Harangody went down in loss to Seton Hall on Feb. 11 and reports later surfaced his college career might be finished. Coach Brey convinced his squad this was now their team and Tory Jackson and Tim Abromaitis in particular took over as leaders and the rest of the players followed their lead in winning last four games, including taking down a pair of ranked clubs.

Harangody’s knee heeled faster than what many believed and he’s returned, coming off the bench. Coach Brey stayed true to the players that realistically have given Notre Dame the chance to be in NCAA Tournament and kept them as starters. The Irish started slowly in trailing 11-2 to Seton Hall and Brey subbed in Harangody and his energy and moves around the basket helped Notre Dame build 28-21 halftime lead. Brey went back to usual starters and they built a 14-point lead and Brey was wise (in my opinion) to let the starting five work thru brief Pirates run that cut the lead to nine and only brought in the former Big East player of the year after Notre Dame has reestablished control.

If you had Weber State -3.5 on their home floor, leading 40-20 at the half, you could be excused from turning away from ESPN2 and the Big Sky championship to check out another game. One problem occurred with that logic, Anthony Johnson of Montana. Johnson exploded for career high 42 points, an amazing 34 in the second half, proving why they call it March Madness, as the Grizzlies stormed all the way back to steal 66-65 win and NCAA bid. What a performance!

Wednesday March 10 7:00AM

You had to be impressed with how Butler just overwhelmed Wright State 70-45 as seven-point home favorites. That win was the Bulldogs 20th in a row, the longest streak in the country, having last lost at UAB on Dec. 22, 67-57. Butler should be a fifth seed (a sixth at worst) and is a definite threat to win a game or two in the tournament, as long as they stay away from super athletic teams.

It’s not my job when to tell coach Jim Calhoun when to retire, but given the non-performance his team put up against St. John’s in being routed 73-51 as 4.5-point favorites, something has to change. Calhoun continues to be plagued by health issues and Connecticut finished the season 6-12 and 7-11 ATS, which made the talk of them even being considered for NCAA Tournament foolish. Maybe progression will just solve the Huskies problems, as seniors Stanley Robinson, Jerome Dyson and Gavin Edwards provided nothing in terms of leadership for their team and their careers are almost completed.

North Texas won the Sun Belt title and automatic bid, by squeaking by Troy 66-63. The Mean Green has four 20-win seasons and can really motor up and down the floor. They could present a challenge to wrong NCAA tourney opponent, as they are 12-6 (10-5-1 ATS) away from Denton and 7-1-1 ATS as a road underdog. The biggest concern is 43.1 field goal percentage defense and sometimes how easily opponents get inside on them for easy buckets.

Defense could reign at Holiday Bowl

The chant “D-Fence” might be ringing around Qualcomm Park for this addition of the 2009 Holiday Bowl. If this is low-scoring defense struggle, don’t be surprised, since Nebraska ranks ninth in total defense and Arizona comes in 20th among FBS schools. Those who watched the Big 12 championship game, viewed just how good defensive tackle Nudamukong Suh and the rest of the Nebraska defense is in almost taking down Texas.

Nebraska (9-4, 8-4 ATS) was a foot away from an upset of the Longhorns and a BCS berth in the Big 12 title game. Instead, the Longhorns winning field goal snuck inside the upright. Now the Cornhuskers must regroup and prepare for Arizona who can also play a little D. The children of the corn are 8-3 ATS against teams with winning records.

The Wildcats finished 11th in the country against the run and they will look to corral Roy Helu, one of the more underrated backs in the country. Quarterback Zac Lee does not appear to pose a threat, since he has neither the arm, accuracy nor poise under pressure to run long drives against a defense like Arizona. The Cats are 2-7-1 ATS in last 10 non-conference clashes and can turn some heads with a win in San Diego.

For long time Holiday Bowl aficionados, this is the second ever rematch, with these teams having competed in 1998. The Wildcats (8-4, 6-6 ATS) won 23-20 on that day and they will be after a second trophy.

Arizona’s season took off when Nick Foles took over as quarterback, giving them diversity on offense. The Wildcats will face a very good Nebraska pass defense and he will have to make quick reads and release the ball for a team that is 9-3 ATS as underdogs.

For all of Nebraska’s previous excellence, they are pedestrian 23-22 and 16-15 ATS after the regular season. The line movement has been wild on this matchup. The Cornhuskers started as favorites, were sent to underdogs by early bettors, with the late money reestablishing them as three-point favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com. No matter who is the favorite, it’s been a good thing in this spot with 10-3 SU and ATS in this encounter since 1996.

Arizona has a three bowl winning streak, however it dates back to 1997 and they are 6-7-1 and 6-4-1 ATS all-time. Since 1998, this has been a Big 12-Pac 10 tilt, with the teams from out west 8-3 ATS. In the last dozen years, the Big 12 is 3-9 ATS.

Both defenses would seem to have decided edges over respective offenses, but both could force turnovers or create field position advantages that could lead to points, thus the Under isn’t a guarantee.

ESPN has this surely physical battle at 8:00 Eastern and Nebraska’s outstanding kicker Alex Henery could be the difference in a tight tilt.

3DW Line – Nebraska by 4

Longhorns and Yellow Jackets favored

The final two spots for the BCS will be locked up on Saturday night, with the Big 12 and ACC championships. Texas is a solid favorite and is predicted to be in BCS title game with a victory. The ACC game for all the marbles has a different flavor, as both teams are off disappointing losses to non-conference rivals and are in a rematch of earlier game. A double dip to close out Championship Saturday. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Nebraska vs Texas (-14.5, 47) 8:00E ABC

It wasn’t an easy trek, but Nebraska accomplished one of their goals this season, winning the Big 12 North. The next goal is more challenging aspiration, knocking off Texas for the conference crown. This is the Cornhuskers fifth appearance in the Big 12 championship and the third time they will face Texas. Nebraska (9-3, 7-5 ATS) has to this point stayed with a familiar script, using a conservative offense, a stingy defense and special teams play that consistently wins the field position battle. Only Texas Tech and lucky Colorado has managed to score more than 17 points against the Blackshirts, with Ndamukong Suh, a finalist for the Lombardi Award, leading the assault. The offense needs RB Roy Helu gaining yardage behind the offensive line, giving inaccordant quarterback Zac Lee a chance to complete passes. Nebraska is 25-10 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 62 percent or better.

After missing out on BCS title game a year ago, Texas (12-0, 5-6-1 ATS) was expected to come in this season and have Texas-sized chip on their shoulder. One aspect overlooked is every year is divergent. Different players are starters along with backups and attitudes change for individuals still in college. The Longhorns had more than their share of slow starts and always came on to put way opponent in the last 30-45 minutes of game action. Since the close 16-13 victory over Oklahoma, the Texas players have played with greater purpose and man-handled everyone on the schedule. It’s evident the Longhorns are peaking but will face a determined Nebraska club that is has nothing to lose. Texas is 22-5 ATS when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play.

The Texas defense was sliced and diced by Texas A&M last week for 532 yards, but Nebraska lacks that kind of firepower to match those figures. Do expect Lee of the Cornhuskers to throw the ball, especially early, since the Longhorns have allowed 279.3 yards passing in last three contests. Nebraska has covered seven of last 10 against teams with winning records.

Against teams from BCS conferences, Nebraska has scored a whopping 18.3 points per game this season. That means a quick start for focused Mack Brown team has TV viewers heading over to ACC contest. This is attitude game for Longhorns, beat Huskers decidedly and folks start believing they can defeat SEC champion. Let Nebraska hang around playing great defense and people will ask what is wrong with TCU not being in Pasadena for last game of the season. The Horns are 13-4 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards.

Favorites in the Big 12 title games are 8-4-1 ATS.

3DW Line – Texas by 15

Clemson vs Georgia Tech (Pick) 8:00E ESPN

It’s a rematch from Sept.10 for the ACC championship. In that contest, Georgia Tech jumped out to a 24-0 lead over Clemson, with RB Anthony Allen scoring on an 82-yard run and Jerrard Tarrant taking a punt back 85 yards. The Tigers weathered the storm and settled in and scored the game’s next 27 points to take the lead. The Yellow Jackets (10-2, 7-4-1 ATS) reestablished their option offense and put together two drives that resulted in field goals, including the winner with under a minute to escape 30-27. Georgia Tech is 5-1 and 3-3 ATS vs. Clemson last six meetings.

Georgia Tech’s option offense had stung opponents for 39 points per game during its eight game winning streak before losing to rival Georgia. One edge they have enjoyed is teams had only one week to prepare for unique offense. Though Clemson will have the same time frame having played South Carolina last week, they’ve had enough time to breakdown tape of their earlier matchup. Coach Paul Johnson, whose 19-6 (15-7 ATS) mark through two seasons is the best in Tech history, has shown his offense can work playing against better competition. The Yellow Jackets are perfect 8-0 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 310 or less yards a game over the last two seasons.

Clemson (8-4, 7-4 ATS) has finally broken thru, winning seven of eight contests and playing like a team which finally exceeded expectations. Coach Dabo Swinney was finally able to sell the upperclassmen on the idea of being accountable for actions. Seniors like C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford have been among the leaders that by example both verbally and by actions. One noticeable difference also has been the defense. Clemson’s had numerous players with all-ACC ability, but this group is No. 1 in total defense in the league and 14th nationally. The Tigers are 2-11 ATS when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards.

Clemson should have learned something from Georgia’s win, pound away at Yellow Jackets front seven. The Tigers have three running backs each with a different style, make it work and score touchdowns. If Clemson doesn’t run effectively and is forced to pass, they drop to 2-8 ATS after scoring less than 20 points in last game.

Interesting to note in common opponents Clemson is 4-0 (3-1 ATS) winning by almost 17 points a game, while Georgia Tech is 3-1 (2-2 ATS) with a winning margin of 4.2 PPG.

3DW Line – Georgia Tech by 1

Conference Championship Games History

The Southeastern Conference was the innovator of the Conference Championship game back in 1992 and when you think about, this has helped propel them to being arguably the best conference in college football year in, year out. The leaders of the SEC knew their customer was a football starved fan and would relish the opportunity for one more game to decide the league’s title. Most years this has provided additional excitement by splitting the conference into two divisions, giving more schools an opportunity to compete in this confrontation.

Alabama and Florida met in the first three games between these schools in this instant classic. In the first game, unbeaten Alabama came in ranked number two in the country and was a solid 10-point favorite over a Florida team that had lost three times, coached by Steve Spurrier, who had just started things rolling at his alma mater. With this being such a new venture, the SEC settled on Legion Field in Birmingham, the Crimson Tide’s home away from home. This guaranteed a sellout and the game was played there the first two years.

Alabama had allowed only eight points a game with its stifling defense, but a cocksure Spurrier had his team well prepared and with nothing to lose, took the opening kickoff for a touchdown. The Tide’s defense had trouble all game long with the Gators, allowing 347 yards, after surrendering only a 183 yards per game all year. Alabama hung on to win 28-21 over Florida. This year will be the sixth matchup between these teams in this contest, with Florida 3-2 SU and ATS. The Gators are 3-1 ATS when favored.

This will be the fifth appearance for each Nebraska and Texas in the Big 12 championship with the Cornhuskers 3-1 ATS and the Longhorns just the opposite at 1-3 ATS. This will be their third get-together in this battle.

Do you think Marshall ever wonders about leaving the MAC? They played in the first six championship games (won five) and haven’t been heard from since, moving on to Conference USA. Central Michigan looks to move into second place for MAC titles (seeking third) behind the Thundering Herd with a win this season, since this contest began in 1997.

Bettors receive five additional possibilities to consider that have often had their share of surprises. Here’s a look at the history of each of the conference championships.

SEC

The SEC will be playing it 18th championship game and has a rematch from last season, with Alabama facing the top-ranked team in the country in Florida. In the previous seventeen years, four teams, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee or LSU have been one of the participants in this contest. The favorite has won 14 of the 17 games; however it has been a battle most of the time as 8-8-1 against the spread record shows. For many college football fans, especially in the South, this game would do just fine to settle the national championship in 2009. However, it is just another step closer for the winner, moving to BCS title game and this team will likely be a favorite against whomever they play. Since 1996, the total has gone on runs of two or more and the UNDER has been the play the last two seasons.

Past SEC Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 –FLORIDA (-10, 54) 31, ALABAMA 20 –FAV/FAV/UNDER
12/1/07 - LSU (-7, 58) 21, TENNESSEE 14 - FAV / Push / UNDER
12/2/06 - FLORIDA (-3, 44.5) 38, ARKANSAS 28 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/3/05 - GEORGIA 34, LSU (-2, 42) 14 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/4/04 - AUBURN (-14.5, 47.5) 38, TENNESSEE 28 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/6/03 - LSU (-3, 42) 34, GEORGIA 13 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/02 - GEORGIA (-9, 47) 30, ARKANSAS 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/8/01 - LSU 31, TENNESSEE (-7, 54) 20 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/2/00 - FLORIDA (-10, 51.5) 28, AUBURN 6 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/4/99 - ALABAMA 34, FLORIDA (-7, 51) 7 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/5/98 - TENNESSEE (-15, 48) 24, MISSISSIPPI ST 14 - FAV / DOG / UNDER
12/6/97 - TENNESSEE (-7.5, 58.5) 30, AUBURN 29 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/7/96 - FLORIDA (-14, 48.5) 45, ALABAMA 30 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/2/95 - FLORIDA (-24, 56) 34, ARKANSAS 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/3/94 - FLORIDA (-7, 46.5) 24, ALABAMA 23 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/4/93 - FLORIDA (-4.5, 43.5) 28, ALABAMA 13 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/5/92 - ALABAMA (-10, 37) 28, FLORIDA 21 - FAV / DOG / OVER

Big 12

The Big 12 joined the festivities in 1996 and exploded onto the scene with a memorable contest. Nebraska had its usual powerhouse and was huge 20.5-point favorites over Texas, who had lost four regular season games. Longhorns coach John Mackovic emptied the playbook, utilizing trick plays and fourth down attempts and upset the heavily favored Cornhuskers 37-27. This gave the Big 12 affair instant credibility. Two years later, an unbeaten Kansas State squad cruised into the title game as 17.5-point favorites and was upset 36-33 by Texas A&M. Five seasons later, the Wildcats were able to pull the same trick on Oklahoma. The Sooners were unbeatable and two touchdown favorites over Bill Snyder’s K-State club. The Wildcats came out throwing deep and caught an overconfident Oklahoma team off-guard and buried Bob Stoops Sooners 35-7. Those represent three of the four losses by the favored team in 13 tries. The favorite is 8-4-1 ATS in the history of the game. Since 2002, this contest has been a series of blowouts, with the average winning margin being 31.7, with the closest three years ago, as Oklahoma won 21-7 over Nebraska. Eight of the 13 contests played have covered the spread by 10 or more points. The South Division has been by far the better of the two Big 12 divisions and that is shown by 5-0 SU and ATS dominance the last five years in this encounter. The UNDER has been the play five of the last seven contests.

Past Big 12 Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 – OKLAHOMA (-16.5, 78.5) 62, MISSOURI 21 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/1/07 – OKLAHOMA (-3, 64.5) 38, MISSOURI 17 - FAV /FAV / UNDER
12/2/06 - OKLAHOMA (-3.5, 44.5) 21, NEBRASKA 7 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/3/05 - TEXAS (-25, 60.5) 70, COLORADO 3 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/4/04 - OKLAHOMA (-23.5, 54.5) 42, COLORADO 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/6/03 - KANSAS ST 35, OKLAHOMA (-14, 53) 7 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/7/02 - OKLAHOMA (-7, 51) 29, COLORADO 7 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/01 - COLORADO 39, TEXAS (-7, 54.5) 37 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/00 - OKLAHOMA (-3, 53) 27, KANSAS ST 24 - FAV / Push / UNDER
12/4/99 - NEBRASKA (-8, 52.5) 22, TEXAS 6 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/5/98 - TEXAS A&M 36, KANSAS ST (-17.5, 46) 33 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/6/97 - NEBRASKA (-19, 53) 54, TEXAS A&M 15 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/96 - TEXAS 37, NEBRASKA (-20.5, 56) 27 - DOG / DOG / OVER

MAC

In 1997, the MAC joined the fun and has been the most entertaining of the conference championships. Eight of the 12 games played have been decided by eight points or less in highly competitive conflicts. This will be Central Michigan’s third appearance in the last four years in this game. This sets up another meeting with Ohio U., whom they whipped in 2006. Being the underdog is the better position in this contest as they are 7-4 ATS, with the favorite only 6-5 SU in lined MAC matchups for the crown. Following the same line of thinking, the team with the poorer record heading into the game is 7-2-1 ATS (Ohio U, this season). The dog has covered a double digit spread in all four instances.

Past MAC Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/5/08 – BUFFALO 42, BALL STATE (-15, 62.5) 24 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/1/07 – C MICHIGAN (-3, 64) 35, MIAMI OHIO 10 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
11/30/06 - C MICHIGAN (-3, 46.5) 31, OHIO U 10 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/05 - AKRON 31, N ILLINOIS (-13, 53.5) 30 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/04 - TOLEDO 35, MIAMI OHIO (-1.5, 64) 27 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/4/03 - MIAMI OHIO (-6.5, 57) 49, BOWLING GREEN 27 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/02 - MARSHALL (-2.5, 62.5) 49, TOLEDO 45 - FAV / FAV / OVER
11/30/01 - TOLEDO 41, MARSHALL (-2.5, 63.5) 36 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/00 - MARSHALL 18, W MICHIGAN (-6.5, 54.5) 14 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/3/99 - MARSHALL (-20, 56.5) 34, W MICHIGAN 30 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/4/98 - MARSHALL (-12, 48) 23, TOLEDO 17 - FAV / DOG / UNDER
12/5/97 - TOLEDO 14, MARSHALL 34 - N/A / N/A / N/A

ACC

The ACC has engaged in the fray in the last four years and it does not elicit much support on a local or national level. The ACC has had severe attendance problems; not being able to bring many of the locals to the contests played in Jacksonville or Tampa and would probably be better suited in Charlotte. The ACC championship has seen the favored teams lose outright three of four times, opening up more conjecture for this season. This is the second straight year the game features a rematch, with Georgia Tech having stopped Clemson 30-27 as five-point home favorites. After several years of not living up to expectations, the Tigers have finally made it to the title tilt. This is the Yellow Jackets second appearance in ACC finale and rest assured it will be a much higher scoring affair then their last visit.

Past ACC Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 – VIRGINIA TECH 30, BOSTON COLLEGE (-1, 38) 12 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/1/07 – VIRGINIA TECH (-4, 48) 30, BOSTON COLLEGE 16 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/2/06 - WAKE FOREST 9, GEORGIA TECH (-1, 40) 6 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/3/05 - FLORIDA ST 27, VIRGINIA TECH (-14.5, 45) 22 - DOG / DOG / OVER

Conference USA

Conference USA does not have the football tradition to play such a game at a neutral site and instead has one of the teams participating as the host. The home team has won and covered the first three conflicts, until East Carolina pulled the big surprise. The Pirates are back to defend their title, this time at home. Though the sampling is small, it is not a surprise this defensively-challenged conference is the only one that has not had a total under 50. This leads to negative angles for both teams in this battle. Houston is 2-9 ATS in road games when they allow 28 or more points, while East Carolina is 0-6 ATS when they concede 28 or more points.

In looking at the history of all games played on the home field of one team, the host is 7-3 SU, covering the spread on five occasions. The Over has been the play in six of the 10 affairs.

Past Conference USA Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 – EAST CAROLINA 27, TULSA (-12, 66) 24- DOG /DOG / UNDER
12/1/07 - CENTRAL FLORIDA (-7.5, 73) 44, TULSA 25 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/06 - HOUSTON (-5.5, 53.5) 34, SOUTHERN MISS 20 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/3/05 - TULSA (-2.5, 57) 44, C FLORIDA 27 - FAV / FAV / OVER

Not your ordinary college football Saturday

The third Saturday in November is always special on the gridiron. No matter the circumstances, Ohio State and Michigan automatically makes this day standout. However, this is not all that matters in college football, not a long shot. The ACC Atlantic could well be determined if Clemson wins, nevertheless, Boston College is right there to take their place should they falter. Oregon heads the desert at night, still searching for Rose Bowl bid and takes on assiduous Arizona squad. Nebraska wraps up Big 12 North with victory at home; while Texas looks to make it official they would play the Cornhuskers for the conference crown with a win over Kansas. While LSU and Mississippi have are playing only for pride, these are still two of the better teams in the country, which makes this intriguing SEC matchup. All numbers from Bookmaker.com.

Ohio State (-12, 47) at Michigan 12:00E ABC

From the standpoint of being truly meaningful, this won’t be the most dynamic of Ohio State and Michigan matchups, nevertheless it still counts just because it is these two teams. The Buckeyes squeaked by Iowa at home last week 27-24 in overtime and will be playing in first Rose Bowl in 13 years. The last thing Ohio State (9-2, 8-3 ATS ) looked like a month ago was team going to Pasadena as Big Ten representative after losing at Purdue 26-18, as two touchdown road favorites. But as coach Jim Tressel said, “We have to go back to work and fix things” which is exactly what the Buckeyes did. What Ohio State has really done in putting this four-game winning streak together is keep it simple and basic. Play great defense, win the field position battle and make enough plays on offense to turn the tide of the game. The Buckeyes are 14-4 ATS a Big ten road favorites since 2005.

After a promising 4-0 start, Michigan (5-6, 4-6 ATS) is staggering to the finish line. Their only win after quick beginning is against FCS Delaware State. The defense is squarely to blame, having conceded 35 points per game in Big Ten action. As coached Rich Rodriguez correctly pointed out after recent 38-36 loss to Purdue, “You score 36 points you ought to be able to win it.”

This is the one contest on the schedule that can heal some Michigan wounds and though Ohio State is still going to the Rose Bowl on January 1, the Wolverines would take away satisfaction in knowing they made Ohio State co-champions of the conference, instead of outright winners. The issue for Michigan is how to change, since they are 1-9 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two years losing by 14.1 points per contest.

Ohio State is on 7-1 and 6-2 ATS run against Michigan in the “Big Game” and has held the Wolverines to seven or less points in consecutive games for the first time in 54 years.

3DW Line – Ohio State by 15

North Carolina (+3.5, 38.5) at Boston College 12:00E ESPN2

Boston College will be going to a bowl game somewhere this season, but before they do, their preference would be to play in third consecutive ACC championship contest. The Eagles could have incurred a tumultuous campaign, but head coach Frank Spaziani brought stability to the program this season and for the most part it has been business as usual for Boston College (7-3, 6-2-1 ATS). Quarterback Dave Shinskie is a freshman in name only, after spending six seasons in the Minnesota Twins farm system. He added life to a stale offense and wide receiver Rich Gunnell will leave the school at or near the top of numerous B.C. pass catching records. Boston College has regained their home field edge this season, with 6-0 and 5-0 ATS mark. In conference action the last 11 years, the Eagles are 27-12 ATS.

This year has not produced the numbers many thought possible in Butch Davis’ third season, but don’t blame the defense. The entire year, this group has been in the Top 15 in several defensive categories and realistically has only had one bad half which came against Florida State in 30-27 loss. What has been North Carolina’s (7-3, 5-4 ATS) strength is ability to get off the field, with opposing teams converting on just over 30 percent on third down, among the best in the nation. The offense has been plagued by injuries and new receivers learning to blend with quarterback T.J. Yates. The Tar Heels are 12-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record the last three years.

This is North Carolina’s first ever trip to Chestnut Hill and they are 13-8 ATS on the November road. Boston College is 9-2 ATS in home games over the last two seasons and 7-3 ATS in last home contest over the past 10 years.

3DW Line – Boston College by 1.5

LSU (+4.5, 42.5) at Mississippi 3:30E CBS

This was supposed to be a portentous conflict back in August, but Alabama killed that notion and other SEC losses took care of it living up to preseason hype. That doesn’t mean it won’t hold value, since these two squads came in with high hopes and want to finish the regular season proudly. The goal for LSU (8-2, 4-5-1 ATS) is simple, win 10 games, which would be the fourth such occurrence under coach Les Miles in the last five years. The Tigers have several players sucking it up and playing hurt. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson is playing with ankle issues and a number of linemen on either side of the ball are limping or playing thru the pain. Look for coach Miles to dial up the pressure on Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead, who has not reacted well in the face of adversity. The Tigers will most likely walk up a safety to take away Rebels run game, to force obvious passing situations. Check this number out, LSU is 1-12-3 ATS in the SEC off a non-conference tilt.

This is Mississippi’s last home game of the season and they would like to put away previous disappointments. This would ideal situation for Snead to regain confidence and get ready for rivalry game with Mississippi State next week. Snead’s lack of confidence has made him reluctant decision-maker, which has led to interceptions or trying to steer the ball to receivers, instead of playing instinctively. Running backs Dexter McCluster and Brandon Bolden have been good behind a spotty offensive line, especially at tackle. The Rebels (7-3, 6-3 ATS) are 10-5 ATS vs. ranked teams at home.

Ole Miss has been the spread winner 10 of last 12 games played against LSU.

3DW Line – Mississippi by 4.5

Virginia (+21, 44.5) at Clemson 3:30E ABC/GP

Since being upset by Maryland 24-21 as 12.5-point road favorites, the Clemson Tigers (7-3, 7-2 ATS) have rattled off five consecutive wins and are still in the hunt for a first ACC Atlantic Division crown. The Tigers revival has been about playing more complete football games. In the losses against the Terps and Georgia Tech, they appeared like many Clemson teams before them, unfocused and not ready to play. Though they played less than perfect games against conference partners Miami and Florida State, they kept the down time to a minimum and made the right plays when it counted most. Clemson also has skill position players that are a threat to score from anywhere. Running back C.J. Spiller and receiver Jacoby Ford are a threat to score anytime they touch the ball. Clemson has alternated spread wins and losses the last 10 games before rivalry game with South Carolina and they beat Virginia last year 13-3 as two-point favorites. Oh boy!

Virginia (3-7, 4-4-1 ATS) is relegated to third losing season in four years, which could spell the end of nine years of Al Groh as coach in Charlottesville. After averaging in the upper 20’s in points scored for a number of years, the Cavaliers have been at 20 or below in their losing seasons. (19.8 in 2009) This year Groh tried to install spread offense run by offensive coordinator Gregg Brandon, but wasn’t happy with results and went back to pro-style, which left the team without an offensive identity and explains ranking 118th in total offense. Virginia is 18-33 ATS in road games in the second half of the season.

Virginia is 8-36-1 all-time against Clemson; however the underdog is on 12-4 ATS run.

3DW Line – Clemson by 20.5

Kansas State (+16.5, 44.5) at Nebraska 7:45E ESPN

The rehiring of Bill Snyder at Kansas State coach was met with tremendous skepticism, as many figured his run had ended after finishing below .500 in 2004 and 2005. The program did not improve under Ron Prince and Snyder was thought to be a good go-between until a younger and more energetic coach could be hired in Manhattan. An unexpected development occurred along the way. The Wildcats started playing more disciplined football than what was seen in recent years, which helped reduce mistakes. With the Big 12 North full of average teams, Kansas State (6-5, 6-4 ATS) can potentially win the division with the upset of Nebraska. The offensive line came together and running back Daniel Thomas has been putting the hurt on opposing tacklers, while the ‘Cats play keep away with the pigskin. K-State comes into this meaningful confrontation 9-1 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points under coach Snyder since 1992.

The best description of Nebraska (7-3 SU&ATS) football in 2009 style is “they find a way”. It ends up that phrase has a dual meaning. Against Iowa State and Virginia Tech, a -10 turnover margin sealed a pair of losses. However, despite seven first downs and 180 yards of offense against Oklahoma, the Cornhuskers picked off five Sooners passes in 10-3 upset in Lincoln. Take away the Texas Tech misstep; Nebraska defenders have earned back the name “Blackshirts”, holding nine other opponents to 17 points or less. Inconsistent quarterback play has stalled the offense, placing dependence on junior RB Roy Helu to carry the load. The Huskers are 8-3 in home finales, but only 3-8 ATS.

If you haven’t seen Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, make a point, he’s a shredder. These teams have played every year since 1922 and K-State in 6-3 ATS the last nine. The favorite is 5-2 ATS since 2002.

3DW Line – Nebraska by 14

Oregon (-6, 60) at Arizona 8:00E ABC/GP

Over most of this decade, the amount of intrigue in the Pacific 10 this time of year has been who is going to win the conference in basketball, as USC has held a stranglehold on this league. But with the Trojans being knocked out and Oregon slipping at Stanford two weeks ago, an un-thought of matchup like this breathes life into the league.

Let’s start with trivia question, what Pac-10 team has never won the conference and played in Rose Bowl? If you answered Arizona, you are a sage college football fan. Coach Mike Stoops has had the wolves at his doorstep the last couple of years, yet somehow his team pulls an upset late and plays well enough down the stretch. This season the Wildcats didn’t wait as long to get started and are 6-3 and 4-5 ATS. The Arizona defense has been troubled by teams that can move the ball, but the insertion of Nick Foles at quarterback has kept the ‘Cats in every game. The Tucson troops are just 3-12 ATS in last home game.

Oregon (8-2, 7-3 ATS) rebounded from Stanford debacle in dumping the other state of Arizona university last week 44-21. The Ducks still control their own destiny with two more wins to become Pac-10 champs for the first time since 2001 and they haven’t been part of the Rose Bowl pageantry since the 1994 season. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and the offense should have too much speed for Arizona defense, but Wildcats stadium is every bit as intimidating as Autzen Stadium when the joint is packed, which should help their defense.

Despite the Ducks defense having a number of very good games, they are better at running and chasing and not facing power football. Oregon is 13-5 and 12-6 ATS against Zona, yet is 1-3 ATS in last four.

3DW Line – Oregon by 5

Kansas (+27.5, 57.5) at Texas 8:00E ABC/GP

A combination of factors has led to a disappointing campaign for Kansas QB Todd Reesing. A less talented squad, especially on defense, coupled with having to play the stronger contingent from the Big 12 South, has led to 1-5 and 0-6 ATS mark in the conference. Like a lot of Big 12 signal callers coming off banner seasons, Reesing hasn’t been able to put it together. A bothersome groin injury and the lack of running game has allowed defenses to play deep zones and take away quick strike offense that was prevalent two years ago in Orange Bowl season. On defense; not enough size, speed or quickness. Jayhawks defensive coaches have played conservative to force opponents to work the length of the field and blitzed like madmen to force negative plays. Nothing much has worked over a complete contest. Unlike the hoops squad, Kansas (5-5, 2-7 ATS) is 1-5 ATS vs. Top 10 teams.

Texas (10-0, 4-5-1 ATS) has three more games to win before presumed date with SEC champion for the national championship. The way the season has worked out, next week’s rivalry battle at Texas A&M might be the most difficult. One aspect coach Mack Brown would like to repair in the last few games is his players’ mental outlook. When the opposing team is a perceived threat, Texas players have been ready since the first kickoff; however in many other contests in which the Horns were Texas-sized favorites, the wakeup call often came in the second quarter or later, before dominating. Texas is 13-3 ATS in home finales and Colt McCoy could win the Heisman with three outstanding performances.

Kansas hasn’t beaten Texas since 1938, though only seven games have been played with the Jayhawks 0-7 and 1-6 ATS.

3DW Line – Texas by 31

Super Saturday

After a slow start to the week, we’ve bounced back with 4-1 record and have four plays today. The first is a double play system that is 25-3, that’s right sports bettors. The Top Trend is near perfect and in the MWC. Marty is blistering the books and gives out his Top Play for Saturday. Good Luck

New Poll Question at bottom of the page

Free Betting Advise – As I mentioned earlier this week and several times previously, check for college totals that are on the move. Games that have changed three or more points are hitting over 65 percent in that direction.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, who are average passing team (175-230 YPG), against an average passing defense (175-230 YPG), after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. Since 2005, this system is 25-3 ATS, 89.3 percent (2-0 this year) and yields two plays. Georgia and Nebraska

Free Football Trend-2) Air Force is 15-1 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Marty of the LCC has hit 12 of last 13 CFB plays (had West Virginia last night) and his top play today is Kansas State.

3Daily Winners Guaranteed Pac-10 Game of the Year.

The Platinum Sheet has expert hitting 66 percent on Best Bets.

College Football Watch and Win Action

It’s crunch in college football. Conference titles are up for grabs as calendar rolls into the first weekend of November. Upsets are not only likely, they are expected. Does LSU have the muscle to knock off Alabama? Will Ohio State win at Penn State to set up bigger Big Ten battle with Iowa next? If Stanford is going to upset Oregon, they couldn’t ask for better setup. Connecticut and Nebraska have had tumultuous seasons for different reasons; do they have one big game left in them? Can Tulsa rise from three-game losing streak and mess with Houston’s dreams? Answers forthcoming. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

LSU (+7.5, 40) at Alabama 3:30E CBS

Sage SEC watchers knew, all the preseason talk of Ole Miss being an upstart in the West Division was bunk, the winner was going to come down to who wins this matchup. For a team that squeaked by Mississippi State (30-26) and Georgia 20-13) on the road and did nothing offensively against top-ranked Florida in falling 13-3, the Tigers (7-1, 4-3 ATS) are receiving a lot of love. There are a number of reasons as to why. If LSU wins out, they will be 11-1 and have rematch with Gators in SEC title tilt. Talent is not an issue for Les Miles club, desire to execute is the conundrum. Besides, it’s more fun to overlook Alabama and Mississippi games are on the road. The Bayou Tigers are 2-6-2 ATS since 2004 on the road after two or more home games.

With a week off, Alabama (5-3 ATS) is expected to be refreshed and continue journey towards showdown with Florida. That means quarterback Greg McElroy has to play like he did in the first five games, not the last three. The Crimson Tide is on unfortunate roll of 11 field goals and one offensive touchdown in the last three SEC contests. Thanks to Mt. Cody (Terrence Cody) single-handedly moving Tennessee linemen backwards twice, Bama is 8-0 for a second straight year. All the blame shouldn’t fall on McElroy, as the offensive line could makes everything easier if sophomore RB Mark Ingram had a few more lanes to run thru. Alabama is 9-1 ATS off two home non-covers where the team won as a favorite.

Have mentioned before the SEC is stuffed with quirky rivalries and this is another that is a head scratcher. The visiting team is 10-1-2 against the spread in the series. Given the preceding number, it would figure close contests right, not a chance with average victory margin of 14 points during this span. The Tide is after first back-to-back covers since 1995-96.

3DW Line – Alabama by 10

Ohio State (+5, 39) at Penn State 3:30E ABC/ESPN2

With Iowa having won last week, this Big Ten battle is elimination game for all practical purposes. Ohio State (7-2 SU& ATS) and Penn State (8-1, 5-4 ATS) both have a conference loss, though the Buckeyes does hold one edge since they face the Hawkeyes at home next week. Ohio State’s chances of success will fall on the young shoulders of Terrelle Pryor, who has played his best against the weaker teams (Purdue not included) and strained taking on better competition with stronger defenses. It does help when the defense plays up to capabilities and creates a turnover or three, giving the Buckeyes momentum and short field. Ohio State is 12-1 ATS playing teams with .666 or higher win percentage.

Penn State needs help in order to be Big Ten champions, having lost to Iowa earlier in the season. The first step is knocking off Oho State, who would presumably be angry and want to topple Iowa from the ranks of the unbeaten. Beyond that, the Nittany Lions can only hope the Hawkeyes lose. Since falling to Iowa, Penn State has been like an approaching November storm, gathering momentum and raining down on opponents. Quarterback Daryll Clark is playing at highest level of the season, connecting with big-play threat wide receiver Derek Moye, which has opened up the rest of the field for other pass catchers. Running back Evan Royster has been patient in picking his spots behind an improving offensive line. Though the non-conference schedule lacked any punch, the Nittany Lions defense has only surrendered more than 17 points once. Penn State is 6-0 ATS after consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better over the last two seasons.

After the home team had covered nine in a row in this series, the visiting club has covered two in a row. Here’s an absolutely insane angle, The Jo Pa’s are 0-15 ATS vs. defensive teams who allow 12 or less points a game. (Iowa was one such team at the time)

3DW Line – Penn State by 6.5

Oregon (-7, 48.5) at Stanford 3:30E FSN

This is the absolute perfect setup for Stanford (5-3 SU&ATS) to pull the upset in Pac-10 play. The Cardinal is off a home game vanquishing of Arizona State and enjoyed a bye week to get healthy in preparation for Oregon, who is in first place all alone in the conference. The Ducks are off exhilarating USC home triumph and have to gather themselves quickly for the most physical team in the Pac-10. The Stanford game plan will be to bludgeon Oregon with RB Toby Gerhart and if successful, this sets up play-action passes for redshirt freshman QB Andrew Luck. Gerhart’s pounding style is like body blows and later in a game; tackler’s might be less inclined to take punishment. Luck has shown ability to complete passes all over the field and has deft touch on in-and-out fade routes. Stanford is 12-5 ATS against Top 10 teams.

Oregon’s offense attracts a great deal of attention and deservedly so, but what has made this team special is a Top 20 team defense that forces a large number of negative plays. The Ducks (7-1, 6-2 ATS) have powerful players in the defensive line that have excellent quickness and speed throughout the entire defense to limit big plays. QB Jeremiah Masoli makes the run-based spread option work and his throwing accuracy has been distinguished for most of the season. Freshman LaMichael James has been stabilizing spoke in the wheel to make Oregon’s run offense work, with ability to make tackler’s miss with his cutting ability. The Ducks are 10-2 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more in consecutive contests.

Oregon has captured the Cardinal, winning eight of last nine, with 7-2 ATS mark. The Ducks have plenty to quack about with 6-1 ATS record at Stanford. Coach Jim Harbaugh’s team is 12-1 ATS since Oregon’s last visit to Stanford Stadium, including 11 straight covers.

3DW Line – Oregon by 4.5

Houston (-1.5, 67.5) at Tulsa 7:30E CBSC

Though both Houston and Tulsa lost to UTEP, this is momentous matchup in the Conference USA West Division. The best the loser can likely hope for is minor bowl bid, with the winner still in contention to capture division crown. The Cougars (7-1, 6-1 ATS) are the most talented team in the league and they have wins over Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Mississippi State to prove it. Coach Kevin Sumlin has done exceptional work in keeping Houston focused week to week and QB Case Keenum is precise dart thrower leading the Cougs attack. The defense has picked up lately, forcing more turnovers and more three and outs. Houston is 0-7 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons.

Besides trying to make third consecutive appearance in C-USA championship game, Tulsa (4-4, 4-3 ATS) also has another motive, revenge. Last season, after suffering first loss of year at Arkansas 30-23, a down Golden Hurricane team at 8-1, ran into a hot Houston club, who smoked them 70-30. That left a raw mark on the returning Tulsa players and guaranteed coach Todd Graham has had the number 70 and box score’s strategically displayed for a constant reminder all week. The Tulsa offensive line must have standup effort as quarterback G.J. Kinne has seen more pressure in the pocket against more advanced competition. Keeping focus shouldn’t be an issue, since this is the first of three challenging league conflicts with East Carolina and at Southern Miss on tap. Tulsa has to move the pigskin and is 9-2 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play.

These teams have only been together in this conference four years, with Houston having 3-1 SU and ATS edge. Dating back further, the underdog is 5-1 ATS. Tough to figure total, with Cougars 8-0 OVER off a home win and Tulsa 7-0-1 UNDER in 2009.

3DW Line – Houston by 5

Connecticut (+17, 51.5) at Cincinnati 8:00 E ABC/GP

Cincinnati’s unexpected odyssey continues when they host a caustic Connecticut club. The Bearcats stand at 8-0 and 6-2 ATS after smashing Syracuse 28-7 and can write their ticket if they keep winning. Before being injured, quarterback Tony Pike was having marvelous campaign, with his name being tossed around in Heisman conversations. His injury ended that talk and he hopes to be ready starting this week for season-ending push. In his place backup Zach Collaros has filled in magnificently. In spite of one defensive starter returning and changing schemes to 3-4 defense, the athletes that were in waiting have been tremendous, with Cincy among the leaders in the country for tackles for loss. Color these Cats successful with 14-4 ATS Big East record under coach Brian Kelly.

Ask any Big East coach, their least favorite opponent is Connecticut (4-4). The Huskies may lack in the talent department compared to other teams, but they will earn the highest marks in preparation under coach Randy Edsall and almost never relent. This year’s team has made the one or two critical mistakes in suffering four losses (7-1 ATS). The offense is playing more consistent and UConn has more playmakers at the skill positions than ever before. One staple missing is the typical Huskies defense, which has surrendered over 26 points per game in league action. All season against better competition, Connecticut has struggled on third down defense. These Huskies are 5-12 as conference underdogs.

Cincinnati was clobbered at Connecticut 40-16 as three-point favorites last season and would relish the opportunity for payback. The home team is 3-1 SU and ATS, with the underdog having covered three of four since the Bearcats joined the Big East. Cincy is 7-0 ATS off two straight wins by 17 or more points since 2007.

3DW Line – Cincinnati by 11

Oklahoma (-4.5, 42.5) at Nebraska 8:00E ABC/GP

Remember when this contest used to be one of the premier games each and every year? Since the formulation of the Big 12 in 1996, these former intense competitors now meet every three years, playing home and away. Last season, Oklahoma (5-3, 3-4-1 ATS) blasted Nebraska 62-28 as 21-point home favorites. The Cornhuskers are the host this time around and are thankful for the opportunity the Sooners provided, knocking off Kansas State last week 42-30. The last two games in Lincoln have been disastrous for Nebraska (5-3 SU&ATS), tripping up against Texas Tech 31-10 and committing a school-record eight turnovers in 9-7 loss to Iowa State, including four inside the Cyclones five-yard line. Quarterback Zac Lee has not played well versus stiffer completion and lost his job to Cody Green. The freshman will have to go against dauntless Oklahoma defense. The Huskers 6-1 ATS as conference home underdogs.

Oklahoma has no major bowl bid in its future, but that won’t stop a Bob Stoops team from playing hard and giving its all. With the team officially under the direction of signal caller Landry Jones, it’s about moving the chains and finding a rhythm and creating snowball effect. Jones hits a couple of passes and a running back rips off 12-yard run, suddenly the Sooners are in business and rolling. After a few misgivings about the defense’s desire to dominate, they have answered every question since loss to Miami. Oklahoma might not win the Big 12 South; nonetheless they will try to make sure Texas knows they better not screw up. The Sooners are 16-1 and 12-5 ATS vs. the Big 12 North the last five years.

In the last six meetings, the Sooners are 5-1 and 4-2 ATS. The home team is 9-5 ATS dating back 20 years.

3DW Line – Oklahoma by 11

CFB Teams to Wager On in November

The last month of the college football season separates the contenders from the pretenders. This is the time where the best teams go and secure conference titles, while those with weakness are found to be fraudulent and meekly fall to the wayside. Teams that have has poor years will often be roughed up by better squads as coaches look to underclassmen seeking better results the following year.

In a black and white world, November should tell us who the best teams are and who are not, yet sports bettors understand all too well about that’s not how it works. In 2007, LSU won a national championship, covering one game from the end of September until defeating Ohio State 38-24 as four-point favorites in the BCS title tilt. In November, if it’s possible, it will likely happen.

Here is the complete list of teams that have good or bad track records is the sports craziest month.

*The Baylor Bears have really missed QB Robert Griffin. The offense has stagnated and the defense is not strong enough to compensate. The Bears are 0-20 and 6-13-1 ATS on the November road and have dates at Missouri and at Texas A&M.

*Hard to surmise presently if coach Dan Hawkins is returning, however Colorado backers would just fine if he could carry on lasting tradition of fielding decent football squad. The Buffalos are 24-12 ATS this month and will have say in who wins the Big 12 North.

*If Houston survives trips to Tulsa and Central Florida, they are still in line to win the C-USA West. Their last two games are at home against Memphis and Rice; however this has been a squad that doesn’t always have the binoculars in focus, telling the tale of 7-12 ATS home record late in the season.

*Iowa State has never won a Big 8 or Big 12 football title of any kind. In 2004, they lost to Missouri in overtime 17-14, to see another chance dissipate. They are competing this season for the North Division crown and it could come down to road game at Missouri. A 1-10 and 3-8 ATS road mark is not encouraging.

*Kansas won at Oklahoma State in November of 2007 on the way to Orange Bowl berth. Beyond that triumph, the history is gloomier than the Kansas weather this time of year with 2-31SU and 9-24 ATS record on the road or at neutral sites.

*Kent State’s has enjoyed one winning season in the last two decades (2001 at 6-5). The Golden Flashes could have another if they don’t fall prey to the ghosts of November’s past, which has spooked them, having 5-23 and 9-19 ATS mark.

*Mentioned LSU earlier, is any other top line program have a more sickly spread record at home than the Tigers at 5-20 ATS? The answer is no, with Louisiana Tech and Arkansas paying a visit to Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge.

*Dating back to the days of Randy Moss, Chad Pennington and Byron Leftwich, Marshall always had a severe home field edge. Those days have passed, yet the Thundering Herd still has bettors running to the cash out window with 17-4 and 14-5 ATS record in November home games.

*This will not go down as one of Memphis University’s better football teams. They still have three enormously difficult road clashes at Tennessee, Houston and Tulsa. Nevertheless, the Tigers will be catching a truckload of points and are 10-1 ATS away from Memphis this month, on 6-0 spread run.

*Middle Tennessee State had freakish schedule this season. The first four of five bouts were on the road, followed by next five of six at Murfreesboro. Their last contest of the year is at UL-Monroe and they are 3-7 ATS in the 11th month of the year dressed as visitors.

*Nebraska’s fine season has recently taken a wrong turn. Coach Bo Pelini is attempting to get the Cornhuskers back on the track, but with 6-10-1 ATS road record since 1999. With trips to Kansas and Colorado, it might not happen.

*Coach Tom O’Brien has a history of his teams being a finisher, be it at Boston College or now at North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have three home games and road excursion to Virginia Tech and they are 10-4 ATS on the November road.

*Ohio University is the ninth oldest public university in the United States and Fox News CEO Roger Ailes majored in radio and television while attending the Athens school of hirer learning. The Bobcats are also becoming known for 10-5 spread figure at Peden Stadium and will have two chances to improve that number.

*Oklahoma State has multiple personalities this month. At Stillwater, the Cowboys are a handful, sporting a 12-4-2 ATS record. When wearing the road whites, not nearly as potent or intimidating, covering five times in last 19 tries (5-13-1). Two home games and two road tilts await Okie State.

*It’s not the good old days at Texas A&M, seeking magic formula that made them regular participant in the best of bowls in the 1990’s. Besides the cool tradition of the 12th man in Aggie-land, Texas A&M is 11-4-2 ATS at Kyle Field to close the season. Baylor and huge rival Texas will both pay a visit.

*With the oddsmakers attempting to make it harder and harder to bet on USC this time of year, the Trojans still persevere and are 20-5 ATS. Of note, since moving last game to December, Pete Carroll’s team has failed to cover the last three played.

*You know the Allstate commercial, with the butler ready to serve the two guys tailgating and Bergwood says he doesn’t want the sauce with the steak tartar? After the butler rolls his eyes, the other guy says sarcastically “Really?” That’s the same reaction people have when they learn Utah State is 7-1 ATS in November the last two seasons.

*As it turns out, Virginia and Oklahoma State have a lot in common. The Cavaliers are miserable 7-19 ATS as visitors; however at Scott Stadium they are 12-6 ATS. Of the four remaining games, they are evenly split home and away for Virginia in 2009.

*Virginia Tech is very solid anywhere under coach Frank Beamer. They are 18-9-1 in Blacksburg in the final month of the season and they will have N.C. State paying a visit in the final home game for outgoing senior class.

*Wake Forest used to known as the Tigers, but in the 1920’s, the football team was known for "devilish play and fighting spirit." and the name stuck with Deacons added. Right now the Demon Deacons are devilish to wagering accounts with 7-14 SU and 5-16 ATS chronicled account as road team.

*Washington State actually went to the Rose Bowl in 2003, but the Cougars have turned into playful cats with a 4-12 ATS mark the last several seasons. Games at Arizona and Washington and home contests with UCLA and Oregon State don’t figure to change this unbecoming trend.

In the last four years, the Wyoming Cowboys have been knocked off their saddle with 3-11 and 2-12 ATS record in November. With home games against BYU and TCU and at improving San Diego State, plus Colorado State, hope doesn’t spring eternal.

Going Green has payoff with right methods

In these times of trying to be environmentally friendly, it is good for the earth to do so. The three R’s are at the centerpiece of this movement, recycle, reuse and reduce. Buying in larger quantities helps reduce the amounts of garbage is placed in landfills. Other tips include product lifecycle, sustainability and value. In the spirit of looking to do what’s right for the earth, adding Green to one’s wagering account also is beneficial since the more greenbacks a person has; it makes it easier to buy in bulk.

Let’s be clear, Al Gore might not wholly endorse this idea, but winning college football wagers surely creates a friendly environment, especially in these economic times.

As mentioned, the first aspect to consider is lifecycle. While there is no way to know exactly what the future holds, a true Green investor likes to have a good start to the future based on prior results. Take these college football teams for example.

ATS Records
Idaho 7-0
Connecticut 6-0
Central Michigan 6-1
Nebraska 5-1
UL-Monroe 5-1
Wyoming 5-1
Alabama 5-2
Ohio State 5-2

As these college football teams approach or are at the midpoint of their respective schedules, they have shown to be worthy of furthering the cause of Going Green by generating a vast amount of cash. What these teams have proven is they can look the wisest of oddsmakers and prove to the world they are more wrong than your local weatherman.

In most cases, the sportsbooks don’t take too heavy a beating since many teams on this list are below or off many sports bettors radar. That’s just fine since the majority of us are more concerned about doing what is right within our means and would prefer the public stayed away from our opportunity to Green-up our world.

Idaho a wonderful example of exercising one’s right of Going Green. The Vandals have been like Robin Hood, taking from the rich and giving to the poor with six covers of the spread as underdogs, which has included five OUTRIGHT upsets. Idaho is bowl eligible for the first time since 1999, having last played a in bowl game the previous year in Boise, ID at the Humanitarian Bowl against Southern Mississippi. The Vandals were favorites last week against Hawaii, which was the second time this has happened in 37 games. Trips to Nevada and Boise State will be challenging, however this just might be year to back Idaho and stay in the green.

Another consideration is sustainability for Going Green. It won’t happen every year, but tried and true college football programs are like blue chip stocks, they may not pay out huge dividends every year, but over time your money will grow. This season such marquee names include Nebraska, Alabama and Ohio State.

The Cornhuskers haven’t been in the public eye a great deal since winning the national championship in 1997. Frank Solich was a good coach, but wasn’t a great recruiter and Bill Callahan would be wise to stay two states away from Nebraska. Bo Pelini has brought back the Husker mentality of playing hard-nosed defense and placed the offense in the hands of able assistant coaches. With a Top 12 defense and quality offense, the covers should keep coming in Husker Nation.

When Nick Saban was hired, everyone figured it was just a matter of time before Alabama was a national power again and were they ever right. Alabama is a physically dominant team on both sides of the ball and since Saban has been able to bring in these type of players, the Crimson Tide are rolling with 14-6 ATS record in the regular season the last two years.

It’s hard to imagine a name like Ohio State not being given their due, but the Buckeyes just go about their business and keeping winning games. This is far from one of coach Jim Tressel’s best squads in Columbus and sports bettors have been able to take advantage of the situation with oddsmakers dissing them to a certain extent. A couple points to remember about Tressel teams that have Buckeye leaves on helmets. Ohio State won’t cover all the time, but they seldom lose when they are not supposed. In 45 regular games the Buckeyes have been favored by 10 or more points since 2001, they’ve lost only three times, including at Purdue last Saturday. Since “The Vest” was in his second year, Ohio State has never had a losing ATS record on the season (52-38 ATS).

The final part of going Green is value. The whole aspect of doing what is right for the world doesn’t come easy; you have to work for it. A lot of time it costs money and energy spent in terms of consumable workload. The beauty of the putting in the time is there can be a payoff in the end.

Searching thru figures to find teams that have a stellar defense like Connecticut is invaluable to Going Green. Coach Randy Edsall had built a program on defense and though the Huskies offense can make an adult more squeamish than a Six Flags rollercoaster ride, few people constantly monitor every penny they make or lose. The Huskies bring home the money.

The MAC conference generally draws about as much attention as a Carly Simon comeback (google to see how many CD’s she sold with last project). This makes a team like Central Michigan a valuable commodity. The Chippewas have been putting up outstanding offensive numbers since Dan LeFevour arrived at Mt. Pleasant what seems like eight years ago. LeFevour’s first two years C. Mich was 18-7-1 ATS, however last year without much of a defense, they sank to 5-7 against the spread. With 10 starters back on the defensive side, covering spreads is back to normal for Central Michigan.

Wyoming has scored 10 points or less three different times including being shut out twice, however that hasn’t stopped them from posting 4-3 SU record and sparkling spread mark. The Cowboys have relished the role of underdog and are 4-1 against the spread in that situation. With the offense lagging, Wyoming’s defense has raised the level of their play in 2009 with its eight returning starters. Take away the 41 points they allowed to No. 3 Texas and these Cowboys have permitted just 17.7 points per game.

Our hope this has been a valuable lesson in understanding some of the elements of what it takes and what it means to Go Green. Now is the time to get it right since Dec. 5 is the last day to have everything in order before a different type of opportunity presents itself for going even further Green, with the bowl season.

Top College Football Games to Consider

For this Saturday on the collegiate gridiron, two longstanding rivalries top the schedule. The evenly divided Cotton Bowl, half burnt orange and half red, presents a perfect setting for the Red River Rivalry, with the winner again taking command of the Big 12 South. The best annual intersectional rivalry resumes with USC traveling to South Bend. An influential Big Ten battle has Iowa at Wisconsin and the same goes in the ACC with Virginia Tech visiting Georgia Tech. Nebraska still hasn’t forgotten 70-10 loss to Texas Tech five years ago and would love to lay out the Red Raiders. Can the Ol’ ball coach work magic and upset No. 2 Alabama? Everything will be determined on another great Saturday of college football action. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Oklahoma (+3, 52) vs Texas 12:00E ABC

For Oklahoma (3-2, 2-3 ATS), it has been a tough go in 2009. Having to play without its Heisman Trophy quarterback for most of the season, potential All-American tight end and recently losing its best receiver. Despite having more problems than David Letterman, the Sooners still control their own destiny with a win over archrival Texas. Like most coaches, Bob Stoops doesn’t worry about whose not there, instead trying to get the most out of who is. Sam Bradford played last week in Baylor bounce back win 33-7 and is having to go without TE Jermaine Gresham for the season and WR Ryan Broyles is questionable. Another factor in this equation is a defense lacking in big stops. In spite of nine starters returning and No.9 ranking, the Oklahoma defense did not made an important shutdown in their losses to BYU or Miami. The Sooners are 1-3 in last four meetings and haven’t covered since 2004.

As Texas (5-0, 1-4 ATS) found out last season, beating Oklahoma isn’t enough and they have to keep focused with road games at Missouri and Oklahoma State up next. Colt McCoy hasn’t been quite the quarterback he was a season ago, but still having a very good 2009 campaign. He’s been helped by a running back by committee this season, as coach Mack Brown has gone with the hot hand and kept feeding the ball to that back. What might make the difference for the Longhorns this season is the defense (No.4 overall). The defensive line was hit by graduation, nonetheless defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has pleaded with his team about the importance of seizing the momentum with key stops and turnovers and its paid dividends. Texas is 5-12 ATS vs ranked teams on neutral fields.

The underdog is 14-7 ATS since 1988 in Red River Rivalry’s, with the margin of victory 10 or more points in 10 of last 11 battles. The Longhorns are 6-18 ATS away from home after five or more consecutive straight up wins. The Sooners are 8-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last two seasons. Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS as road underdog under coach Stoops, upset in the making?

3DWLine – Texas by 2

Iowa (+2.5, 47.5) at Wisconsin 12:00E ESPN

If a person is ardent fan of Big Ten football, than you know Wisconsin hates Iowa. Neither school would consider the other its biggest rival, nevertheless Badger fans detest Iowans. After losing at Ohio State last week 31-13, Wisconsin (5-1, 2-3 ATS) is setup nicely to run the table in the conference after their upcoming bye week. Running back John Clay has dropped a few calories and is back to running hard behind an improving offense line, with Badgers rushing for over 200 yards per game. Quarterback Scott Tolzien has more weapons at his disposal than what was believed in the preseason, with better athletes manning skill positions. Coach Brett Bielema and his defensive staff have out-maneuvered opponents with attacking defense. The Badgers are 20-11 ATS as single digit Big Ten favorites.

Coach Kirk Ferentz has never big on style over substance, which is why he’s pleased with Iowa’s 6-0 record. Closer than anticipated victories over Northern Iowa (17-16) and Arkansas State (24-21) are much better than a loss from Ferentz point of view. After last week’s thrilling 30-28 victory against Michigan, the Hawkeyes hit the road for a pair. Top priority is stopping the Wisconsin run game and making the Badgers as one-dimensional as possible. This strategy worked versus Arizona and Penn State and Iowa is confident it can work again. On offense, quarterback Ricky Stanzi has hit a few big plays the last couple of weeks and Wisky is vulnerable in the secondary, allowing 210.3 yards per game against opponents that only throw for 174 YPG. Iowa is 5-9 ATS in the first of two road games.

The Hawkeyes are 19-10-1 ATS since the turn of the century as conference dogs of 9.5 or less and they are 6-1 ATS facing the Badgers. Wisconsin has not covered last three tilts at home against the Iowa and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in Madison.

3DW Line – Wisconsin by 1

USC (-10, 50) at Notre Dame 3:30E NBC

Forget all the come-from-behind wins, forget the 4-1 record and forget Jimmy Clausen Heisman talk, for Notre Dame followers and detractors, this is the benchmark game of the season. The Fighting Irish have a BCS bowl offense and an International Bowl defense. Notre Dame (1-4 ATS) has lost seven in a row to USC (1-6 ATS) and six of those games, the Trojans margin of victory has been Nancy Pelosi eye-opening 31 points per game. Charley Weis and his team feel this team is different, having a potential All-American quarterback and an offense that keeps overcoming the defenses’ flaws. The two biggest factors for Notre Dame will be keeping Clausen in vertical position and the ability of Irish defenders to keep USC out of the end zone. Notre Dame is 11-27 ATS having won four out of their last five games.

If the California game is precursor of USC’s true abilities, watch out. The Trojans (4-1, 2-3 ATS) defense tamed the Bears like a zoo keeper and now has similar numbers to last year’s unbelievable group. QB Matt Barkley was productive against Cal and won’t be intimidated at South Bend, having played at Columbus and at Berkeley already. Pete Carroll is pleased to report injured players like wide receiver Ronald Johnson should be back, which can open up the Trojan playbook. The Men of Troy are 39-7 and 29-17 ATS in non-conference action.

Rest assured, USC has no problem playing the Irish since they have a “who’s your daddy sticker” on them. The Trojans are 14-3 ATS with two or more weeks of preparation and figure to be in good shape wanting to continue domination. This has to be a “Wake up the Echoes” game for Notre Dame. Somehow, someway they find a way and pull the upset and move to 5-2 ATS as home underdog against Top 10 team.

3DW Line – USC by 3

Texas Tech (+11, 61) at Nebraska 3:30E ABC/GP

With regular starting quarterback Taylor Potts out with concussion for undetermined amount of time, coach Mike Leach looks on building the confidence of his backup Steven Sheffield. Leach not only likes his quick delivery, but his mobility also. “Of our quarterbacks we have right now, he creates the best tempo for the group,” said Leach. The Texas Tech head man as other issues, like an offensive line that is allowing too much pressure on his pigskin passers. That needs to be solved with Nebraska’s ability to turn up the heat. They will face a strong Huskers running game (5.2 yards per carry), however the Red Raiders (4-2, 3-2 ATS) are 15-4 ATS versus excellent rushing teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards per carry.

Playing in a steady downpour, it’s hard to look overly impressive; nonetheless Nebraska (5-0 ATS) played 15 minutes of football that will be remembered in Lincoln. Down 12-0 after three quarters at Missouri, the Cornhuskers scored the game’s last 27 points to raise record to 4-1. Led by likely All-American defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, he and his defense teammates took over the game and a soggy Nebraska offense cashed in on their opportunities. If coach Bo Pelini’s squad can win this Big 12 contest, this sets up for the Cornhuskers to be 7-1 when they host Oklahoma on Nov.7. Nebraska is 7-3 ATS in the first or two or more home games.

Nebraska has dropped three straight to Texas Tech after winning the first seven meetings in the series. No Cornhusker fan will ever forget the 2004, 70-10 massacre in Lubbock and returning the favor would be the sweetest revenge. The Huskers are 15-3 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points a game. This has become a potentially ruse line, with Nebraska money flooding in from opening line of the Huskers at -6.

3DW Line – Nebraska by 9

Virginia Tech (-3, 52) at Georgia Tech 6:00E ESPN2

Virginia Tech (5-1, 3-3 ATS) buried Boston College 48-14 at home and has rugged assignment. The Hokies defensive front will be put to the test against the Georgia Tech option offense. This isn’t your vintage Frank Beamer defense, allowing over 123 yards rushing per game and not in the Top 25 in total defense (34th). This will be another tester in terms of desire to succeed and hold the line. Virginia Tech might gain one advantage if Tyrod Taylor continues to throw the ball well, since the Yellow Jackets are a rambling wreck against the pass, being burned for over 249 yards a game. Hokie offensive football is still based around the running game and they will have to run the pigskin on the ground to be successful. The Hokies are sensational 17-3 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less.

Georgia Tech (5-1, 3-2 ATS) has a Sesame Street lineup having three games against teams that start with the letter V (Virginia and Vanderbilt on deck) in a row. The success the Yellow Jackets have enjoyed this season is when they attack early, both on offense and defense. The option will bog down from time to time, which means if Josh Nesbitt can get things started quickly, that helps momentum, particularly helpful in front of the throng at Bobby Dodd Stadium. The defense has been plagued by missed assignments in the secondary and poor tackling. The Jackets will look to crank up the running game and are 17-6 ATS when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt.

Virginia Tech has won four of the last five tilts; with the road team 5-1 ATS in recent clashes. Prior to last season’s 20-17 Hokies win, the average margin of victory was 23 points per game.

3DW Line – Virginia Tech by 5

South Carolina (+17.5, 45) at Alabama 7:45E ESPN

This has to rank among the stranger seasons the ol’ ball coach has had being a head coach (working for Daniel Snyder not included). The defense lost a ton of talent from last year, yet South Carolina (5-1, 4-1 ATS) has only conceded more than 17 points twice this season. Despite constant shuffling in the offense line, the Gamecocks total on average just over 370 yards per game, not bad considering the turmoil. Senior linebacker and captain Eric Norwood finds a way to make an impact in every game and he will need to in a big way to slow down the Alabama attack. South Carolina is 9-4-1 ATS as road underdogs under coach Steve Spurrier.

Coming into the season, Crimson Tide (6-0, 5-1 ATS) backers thought their team had the potential to be even better than last year’s club that took 12-0 record into the SEC title game. The 55 returning lettermen are all physically stronger and a year wiser to coach Nick Saban’s no nonsense approach and if quarterback Greg McElroy could come thru, no telling how far Alabama could rise. McElroy has been tremendous and other pieces have fallen into place. Sophomore running back Mark Ingram has been as good as advertised, but tight end transfer Colin Peek is really fitting in, as he and McElroy have gotten more comfortable with each other. The Tide is 9-22-2 ATS in SEC home games, which includes three straight covers.

This is the first of trio of conference home games for Bama, who is 9-16-1 ATS when favored by 10 or more points. In studying Crimson Tide trends, most have come from the past and under coach Saban, most everything has been a lot different. For proof, check out 9-2 ATS record after a win by 17 or more points over the last two seasons, winning by 21.6 points per game. These teams last met in 2005 and the visitor has covered the oddsmakers number the last three times.
3DW Line – Alabama by 17