The “Big Uglies” can lead to college football profits

The glamour position of football is the quarterback, followed by running backs. These are the players that get all the love (and hate) and pub from the media, fans and football bettors. However, longtime college football announcer Keith Jackson and every football coach that ever walked the sidelines above peewee level knows it all starts up front, as Jackson used to say, with the “Big Uglies”.

An offense line can set the pace of a game, running the ball down opposing teams’ throats by opening chasms Levi Johnson and is temptress could walk thru hand and hand. The same would also be true in the passing game, providing the accomplished quarterback time to answer email, plus update Facebook and Twitter pages.

The opposite could also be true of the college football teams that are rebuilding offensive lines due to graduation or defection. A talented quarterback may be taking his life into his own hands trying to avoid the onslaught of defenders (see Jimmy Clausen tape at Notre Dame), to look downfield to complete a pass. What about the star running back who needs a compass to run north and south, since there are no holes to run thru and becomes accustomed to bouncing everything outside.

In the rest of this article, we’ll look what teams have the most and fewest returning offensive linemen and what impact that could have on their universities upcoming season and for those betting on football.

The best place to start is teams that have all five O-linemen back along with their starting quarterback.

Ball State
Colorado
Florida State
Fresno State
Louisiana Tech
Minnesota
South Florida
Wisconsin

Specifically, the Seminoles and Badgers are expected to be teams not only competing for the top of their respective conferences, but also nationally. Guard Rodney Hudson for Florida State and tackle Gabe Carimi at Wisconsin, are on virtually everyone’s first team All-American list. Wisky’s John Moffitt is believed to be no worse than the third best guard in the country.

Colorado’s offense should be further improved this upcoming campaign and Fresno State’s pounding running game should create more havoc on the WAC.

New coaching staffs are in place in South Florida and Louisiana Tech, which could see the shifting of players up front, making improvement less certain. Ball State and Minnesota might have all these individuals back, but that doesn’t mean they were that good to begin with. Collectively, this entire group is worth following.

The next grouping is five offensive linemen back, with a different starting signal caller.

Georgia
Kansas
Memphis
Northwestern
Oregon
Rice

With this contingent, the head coach and his offensive staff will try to build around these players before heading into conference action. These behemoths are being counted on to open holes and keep the opposition off new quarterbacks. These large fellas actually have a great deal of pressure on them as opponents will game plan to have more defensive players at the line of scrimmage to create chaos with blocking assignments and to confuse new field general or make backs less instinctive when carrying the pigskin.

Memphis and Kansas have new head coaches, lending itself to period of adjustment for new blocking schemes. The rest of the squads will have to set the tone for the makings of a successful season and earn the trust of those following football betting lines.

The next patch is teams with only one lineman having starting experience from a year ago. A smart quarterback’s knowledge of the offense and ability to hit open receivers proficiently can take some of the pressure off until this unit gels.

Vanderbilt, Southern Miss, Kentucky and Hawaii all fit the aforementioned situation, with the Golden Eagles from Hattiesburg, MS having the best opportunity to prosper with the quarterback duo of Austin Davis and Martevious Young being able to chuck the ball to 6’6 DeAndre Brown, C-USA’s finest pure pass catcher. Coach Larry Fedora is offensive-minded and has the best chance for achieving success with somewhat limited options.

Bobby Johnson resigned at Vanderbilt just last month, making a prickly predicament that much worse and Joker Phillips will quickly learn that lacking experience in the offensive line is no joke in the SEC.

That brings us to Air Force and Florida Atlantic, who have no O-Linemen that started the majority of games a year ago. Though hardly ideal, the Air Force and all military universities face a somewhat similar issue most years. Unless a linemen ends up being unusually skilled (which is unlikely since they could go somewhere else and just play football), few underclassman play early in their careers. The zone blocking scheme the Air Force employs is more about cohesiveness than blowing somebody up across the line of scrimmage. Plus, the Flyboys have two good quarterbacks for their offense, each with a different skill set to help offset having five newbies that will block for them. Nonetheless, it might pay to watch this team in September as play against BYU, at Oklahoma and at Wyoming and watch the stats to see if the Falcons come together quickly.

It might be long season for Florida Atlantic. Technically, the Owls don’t have returning starting QB, however senior Jeff Van Camp was forced to play the last five games due to injury of decorated Rusty Smith. However, around him are five fresh faces in the line and five of top six pass catchers have graduated.

When the bowl season comes around, invariably the talk of commentators will turn to “the offensive line carried this team for much of the year” or “this club failed to meet expectations because the offensive line didn’t block as presumed”. Use this information as a good starting point for the upcoming college football season.

Independence Bowl Preview

Expect a shootout in Shreveport, when QB Jerrod Johnson and Texas A&M (6-6, 6-5-1 ATS) hook up with his counterpart Joe Cox of Georgia (7-5, 4-7 ATS). The Aggies ranked in the Top 25 nationally in scoring and most phases of offense, while the Bulldogs surrendered 26.4 points per game, the most since 1990. This lead to DC Willie Martinez and two other assistants to be released, which means coach Mark Richt will be more involved with that side of the ball. The Aggies defense conceded 32.7 points per game, including 47 or more four different times. This is Georgia’s lowest-tiered bowl in eight years.

Georgia is another squad with Play On tendencies sporting 25-16-1 bowl record; with 16-11 ATS mark. The Bulldogs are a ferocious 10-2 and 9-3 ATS in last dozen bowl pairings. Georgia only played three teams that didn’t go bowling and finished 4-5 and 3-6 ATS against them. Texas A&M is back in the bowl scene after a year away and seeks to improve recent 1-7 and 1-6 spread record as bowler. The Aggies were 2-4 and 3-3 ATS when matched versus other bowl clubs. The underdog is 7-4 ATS in last 11 Independence clashes, with the SEC 8-2 and 7-3 ATS.

Coach Richt isn’t trying to redo the Georgia defense, just find a way to make it survive a single bowl game. "I'm not trying to reinvent anything," he told reporters last week, "My role is to set the parameters and make sure everything is being covered and to make sure we have a plan schematically and a plan to implement that strategy.

Richt hopes his stop troops can have an impact, since they are 13-39 ATS when they allow 28 or more points. Beyond linebacker Rennie Curran, Georgia is only average on the defensive side of the ball.

The Texas A&M defense is abysmal, which suggests the only way to win is scoring, with Johnson having a big ball game. Depending on how a person wants to view the Aggies, they are 13-3 ATS after allowing 525 or more total yards like they did against Texas or 5-15 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards as they did against the Longhorns.

No matter how you look at it, points shouldn’t be an issue, with the total up 66.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com, with Georgia favored by 6.5-points. Texas A&M is 11-2 OVER as an underdog over the last two seasons, while the Bulldogs are 20-7 UNDER after covering the spread in two out of their last three games.

The Independence Bowl starts at 5:00 Eastern on ESPN2 in what should be an entertaining high scoring affair.

3DW Line – Georgia by 4

Rivalry Games for Wagering Appetites

It’s the last big weekend of college football already, where did the time go? Among the more intriguing matchups is Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, with Cowboys trying to make Sooners a .500 club. Florida wants to prove they are still the top team in the country and in the Sunshine State. Georgia and Georgia Tech has a lot of history and Yellow Jackets want to keeping winning, playing for ACC title next. The way it’s been portrayed, no matter the outcome, a certain South Bend football coach might be fired during the game and told to find his own transportation back home. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.


Oklahoma State (+7.5, 49) at Oklahoma 12:30E FSN

All of the preseason discussion about Oklahoma State centered around last year’s fabulous offense that averaged over 40 points per game and had their three stars returning. As it turns out, Oklahoma State (9-2, 6-4-1 ATS) comes into the annual battle with Oklahoma with a good defensive club. Other then surrendering 45 points to Houston and 41 to Texas, only Texas A&M and Colorado have been able to cross the 24-point barrier against the Cowboys D. Among the leaders is cornerback Perrish Cox, who leads the nation in passes defended. Though hardly dominant, the defensive line has maintained steady pressure on opposing signal callers all year. The Cowboys are 8-3-1 ATS in road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

It’s hard to imagine a better five loss team talent-wise over the last 20 years than Oklahoma (6-5, 4-6-1 ATS). The Sooners resume doesn’t look as fancy as previous year’s, however not many top programs could overcome the losses the Sooners have faced. Coach Bob Stoops has resisted temptation to let the situation overwhelm the squad, instead asking those replacements to play their best and believing healthy players have to raise their level of play to help compensate. With QB Landry Jones receiving so much more experience than anticipated, the Sooners are playing towards the future as well and sophomore WR Ryan Broyles is looking like a star in the making. The Sooners are 9-3 ATS of a SU loss.

The “Bedlam Game” battle still has Oklahoma leading all-time with 79-16-7 and the home team is 8-2-1 ATS in this rivalry. The Cowboys will look to improve on 6-13-1 ATS November road record.

3DWLine – Oklahoma by 10.5

Florida State (+24.5, 56) at Florida 3:30E CBS

For well over a decade, this was one of the most anticipated games of the season, with an array of future NFL players and blinding speed from each team. With the arrival of Urban Meyer and the decline in talent in Tallahassee, this has become a one-sided series. The Gators have won five in a row and three of the last four by scores of 27, 32, and 30 respectively. Sadly, at least for Florida State fans, this showdown has become nothing more than tuneup for the Gators (11-0, 5-5 ATS) before SEC title game. The Florida defense has been this team’s bell-cow even if the fawning continues over Tim Tebow. They turn off the opponent’s running game like a spigot, rush the passer like a video game at faster speed and defend the pass like they are a receiver’s shadow. Florida is 9-1 ATS off a non-conference game in the regular season.

As retiring defense coordinator Mickey Andrews said after Wake Forest upset, “If we don’t make mistakes, we’re a pretty good football team.” Football can be that simple and Florida State (6-5, 3-8 ATS) knows it. The issue all year has been lack of discipline in carrying out assignments. Be it defensive linemen needing to secure a corner or an offensive tackle grabbing opposing player for holding penalty 30 yards away from the ball. This Florida team doesn’t have the look of the three previous national champions and if the Seminoles can play mistake free for three quarters, who knows what can happen in last 15 minutes. Florida State is 10-4-2 ATS as an underdog, but 8-21-1 against the spread off a SU victory.

Check the spread, the SU winner in this Sunshine State showdown is 25-2-1 ATS.

3DWLine – Florida by 23.5

Georgia (+7.5, 57) at Georgia Tech 8:00E ABC/GP

Conference championship contests certainly put a different twist on rivalry games if they are held the week prior. For the second time in four years, Georgia Tech (10-1, 7-3 ATS) has advanced to ACC title tilt and you have to wonder about mindset for this matchup. In the big picture, earning a league championship and BCS berth is far more important than defeating a in-state rival, yet fans have to live with one another should their team lose. Georgia Tech players have been conditioned to want to take down the bigger state school, leaving a bit of an emotional quandary. The Yellow Jackets are 1-9 ATS at home after scoring 35 or more points.

The Bulldogs are also in quandary, how to you stop the Georgia Tech option offense? Since losing at Miami, the Yellow Jackets have scored 39 points per game and are second in the country in rushing offense. The Georgia (6-5, 3-7 ATS) defense has been anything but memorable in 2009 and will have to find ways to slow the Jackets down, while playing mistake-free on offense. Signal caller Joe Cox has played with more confidence in last few outings and running back Caleb King has found more room to maneuver. Coach Mark Richt’s team can go full out and has revenge angle having lost last year 45-42 as touchdown favorites. The Bulldogs have had plenty of bite with 20-6 ATS record on the road in non-conference games over the last 17 years.

This Peach State confrontation is more old-school with the visitor 9-2 against the spread, which includes Georgia 5-0 ATS at Bobby Dodd Stadium.

3DWLine – Georgia Tech by 13

Notre Dame (+10, 63) at Stanford 8:00E ABC/GP

If the NCAA had a football tournament (can’t we pretend at least), one team nobody would want to face is Stanford. The Cardinal (7-4 SU & ATS) is an offensive juggernaut right now and has given no indication anyone will stop them. What makes Stanford so incredibly difficult to defend is balance. Running back Toby Gerhart is the most physical runner in the Pac-10, maybe in the country and quarterback Andrew Luck is efficient passer with ample time to throw. Pull out all the preseason publications you can find and good luck trying to find the Stanford offensive ranked among the elite. However, ask the previous 11 teams which have played the Cardinal what was the best offensive line they faced, well the answer is clear. Coach Jim Harbaugh’s team is 10-1 ATS at home the last two years. (Does Harbaugh look to run up the score like he did against USC)

Charley Weis is a large man and the shadow he is casting over the Notre Dame (6-5, 2-8-1 ATS) football program is a 1000 times larger. Since the Navy upset, the story isn’t about the football team, it’s about Weis and if he will come back for 2010 or not as the Fighting Irish coach. For a team with incredible strengths and equally persistent weaknesses, the last thing they need is a loss of focus which has been inevitable since Middies loss. Be it not for QB Jimmy Clausen and receiver Golden Tate, Golden Domers would have been in outrage back in early October. Defensive coordinator John Tenuta is known from his blitzing schemes every stop along the way; however it hasn’t worked in South Bend, lacking the players. The Irish are 1-6 ATS after their last home game.

Stanford is 3-11 and 4-10 ATS vs Notre Dame since 1993.

3DW Line – Stanford by 7.5

Here are other rivalry games of interest.

Clemson at South Carolina (+3.5, 44) 12:00E ESPN

The Clemson Tigers are playing for their first ACC title since 1991 next week, but before that, they would not mind sticking it to Palmetto state rival South Carolina. The Tigers finally exceeded expectations in winning the Atlantic Division and have six game winning streak for the first time in three years. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS the last eight years in this encounter and have been an underdog once in 20 years. South Carolina is sliding again due to rugged closing slate and needs this victory for a winning campaign. The Gamecocks are 6-15 ATS in last game and 6-11 ATS the last two games since 2001.

Mississippi at Mississippi State (+8, 47.5) 12:21E SEC Network/GP

The Egg Bowl is among the bitterest state rivalries and Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen will get his first taste playing in Starkville. MSU has played a number of the better SEC teams to the finish and it would be a great conclusion to upset Ole Miss this season. The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in final home game. After beating LSU last week 25-23, Mississippi looks to close the season on a high note. The Rebels have better utilized the talents of running back Dexter McCluster the last several weeks and is 7-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons. The home team is 9-1 and 6-3-1 ATS the last 10 years.

Virginia Tech at Virginia (+15.5, 42) 3:30E ESPN

The Hokies have won nine of last 10 in this rivalry, with seven covers. It’s a different feeling for Virginia Tech in this contest, as usually a bigger game has been in waiting, be it in the ACC or the Big East. Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last three years. It looks like the end of the line for coach Al Groh, with Virginia on five-game losing streak and another losing season. The Cavaliers anemic offense has been the largest contributor, scoring more than 20 points three times and they are 10-22 ATS when they rush for 50 to 100 yards. Virginia Tech is 16-8 ATS vs. Virginia the last 24 years.

Missouri vs. Kansas (+3.5, 56) 3:30E ABC/GP

The longest running series west of the Mississippi River continues in Kansas City for a third straight year. Both teams had disappointment with how the season evolved, yet one squad will have satisfaction in deflating their biggest rival. In this Border War, Missouri’s passing offense is 18-6 ATS when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards per attempt. Kansas on the other hand is 0-6 SU and ATS since win over Iowa State in Big 12 opener. The Jayhawks failures bring up the past and they are 18-39 ATS record in weeks 10 through 13. This is the 118th meeting and the series is 54-54-9, with the dog barking at 10-4 ATS.

Utah at BYU (+7.5, 53) 5:00E CBSC

This is the 85th version of the Holy War and though no conference title is on the line, the intensity will be as strong as ever. BYU is after their fourth consecutive 10-win season and definitely will be in revenge mode after 48-24 demolition at Utah last season. The Cougars are only 4-11 ATS in MWC matchups the last two years. Like BYU, the Utes have lost just twice this season and are 17-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards a game. This is almost always a competitive affair, with 10 of last 12 decided by seven or less points. The underdog is 12-4 ATS since 1993.

UCLA at USC (-13, 47) 10:00E FSN

Much like the Dodgers and Angels of Los Angeles, UCLA and USC failed to deliver in clutch situations, leaving fans wanting for more. The Bruins lack of running game has limited the options in the passing game, with opponents blitzing heavily in obvious throwing situations. UCLA is 6-12 ATS on the road after a Pac-10 home game. This is unfamiliar territory for USC with three losses; however closing with a trio of wins gives the Trojans an eighth straight 10-win or better season. Coming off the bye week, Pete Carroll’s club is 19-7 ATS with rest and the home team is 19-8 ATS for this city rivalry.

Super Saturday

After a slow start to the week, we’ve bounced back with 4-1 record and have four plays today. The first is a double play system that is 25-3, that’s right sports bettors. The Top Trend is near perfect and in the MWC. Marty is blistering the books and gives out his Top Play for Saturday. Good Luck

New Poll Question at bottom of the page

Free Betting Advise – As I mentioned earlier this week and several times previously, check for college totals that are on the move. Games that have changed three or more points are hitting over 65 percent in that direction.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, who are average passing team (175-230 YPG), against an average passing defense (175-230 YPG), after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. Since 2005, this system is 25-3 ATS, 89.3 percent (2-0 this year) and yields two plays. Georgia and Nebraska

Free Football Trend-2) Air Force is 15-1 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Marty of the LCC has hit 12 of last 13 CFB plays (had West Virginia last night) and his top play today is Kansas State.

3Daily Winners Guaranteed Pac-10 Game of the Year.

The Platinum Sheet has expert hitting 66 percent on Best Bets.

Trick or Treat CFB Wagering

The last day of wagering on college student-athletes in October is here and it could either be a ghoulish experience or one that fills your bag with plenty of treats (cash). Some of the costumes for the World’s Largest Cocktail Party should be enjoyable and will Tim Tebow get the Florida offense back on track against rival Georgia. Oklahoma State and Oregon are both home and with upset victories, can change the order of power in the BCS standings below the top two. Virginia Tech’s loss gives Miami a chance to still win the ACC Coastal and they travel to Wake Forest off disappointing overtime defeat. If Central Michigan can trick Boston College, they gain stature for themselves as well as the MAC. Here’s hoping your bag is stuffed with goodies. Numbers courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Florida (-14.5, 48) vs. Georgia 3:30E CBS

Though this year’s World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail party won’t carry the same panache as the last couple, it is no less important to its participants. Florida (7-0. 3-3 ATS) is ranked first in the BCS and doesn’t have the same offensive power of a year ago. Even after supplying misfortune on Mississippi State 29-19, coach Urban Meyer is far from pleased. “We kind of operate around here on urgency. That’s not something we’re ashamed of,” Meyer said recently. “We’re not playing perfect, and there are times we’re not playing very good at all,” Meyer elaborated. “We’re not on the same planet statistically as last year. I’m not happy where we are at right now.” Fortunately, Meyer and Florida can fall back on a superb stop unit that leads the SEC in about every statistic and is the best nationally in total defense. Under coach Meyer, the Gators are 12-1 (7-5-1 ATS) against their so-called Big Three opponents, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida State. Florida is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Two years ago, coach Mark Richt used a little chicanery to fire up his Georgia (4-3, 2-5 ATS) squad and it worked with 42-30 upset as touchdown underdogs. He might need something even crazier, since nobody will compare this Bulldogs team talent-wise to that club. After falling to LSU and Tennessee, coach Richt went back to basics and it paid off against Vanderbilt with 34-10 road win. The Bulldogs were crisper offensively than they had been since Arkansas contest. The offensive line fired off the ball and offensive coordinator Mike Bobo left the press box to be more involved with QB Joe Cox. Georgia is 10-5-1 ATS in neutral site contests against ranked teams the last decade and 17-6 ATS away from home after a bye week.

Florida is 16-3 and 12-6-1 ATS the last 19 years in this match, with the favorite 2-5-1 against the number. The SU winner is 23-3-1 ATS since 1982 in this rivalry.

3DW Line -Florida by 13

Central Michigan (+5.5, 50.5) at Boston College 3:30E ESPNU

Both teams have three conference games remaining and are true contenders to play in respective league championship tilts. They take time out from strenuous slate and meet in an engaging nonconference contest.

Central Michigan (7-1, 6-1 ATS) is atop of the MAC West standings, going after third league title in four years. It was actually an opening game visit by Boston College in 2006 that turned the Chippewas fortunes. Starting quarterback Brian Brunner was injured on the second play of the game and a plucky freshman named Dan LeFevour came in and battled the Eagles in 31-24 loss as 11-point home underdogs. That set the program is a winning direction and it hasn’t stopped yet. Central Michigan is 7-0 (5-1 ATS) since opening loss at Arizona 19-6. What coach Butch Jones hopes to conceal is secondary that can be beaten by accurate thrower. The Chippewas are 11-13-1 ATS as road underdogs the since 2003, but 5-1 ATS the last two years. Additionally, Central Michigan is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing on the road over the last three seasons.

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Boston College (5-3, 5-2 ATS) losing their head coach after strife with university. The Eagles gave the head coaching job to Frank Spaziani out of loyalty and necessity. The long time assistant figured to have .500 season at best, instead he built resilient squad. A dismal loss at Clemson was followed up with home win over Wake Forest. A Virginia Tech 48-14 thrashing led to nailing N.C. State 52-20, as running back Montel Harris rushed for 264 yards. B.C.’s five turnovers cost them win at South Bend last Saturday and the Eagles are 5-9-1 ATS since 1992 after Notre Dame.

Boston College is 8-0 and 5-2-1 ATS against MAC teams and Central Michigan is 1-7-1 ATS facing non-Big Ten BCS schools on the road. The Chippewas are 11-0 UNDER after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last outing.

3DW Line – Boston College by 5.5

Miami (-7, 51) at Wake Forest 3:30E ABC/ESPN2

Miami (5-2, 4-3 ATS) plays their second ACC road contest of the season in Winston-Salem against Wake Forest. The Hurricanes survived the most arduous schedule to start the season among the 120 FBS schools and has their sights set on ACC Coastal crown. Quarterback Jacory Harris continues to be one of the best distributors of the pigskin (29th nationally), hitting seven or more receivers most outings. The defense is improving, as younger players like linebacker Sean Spence (now doubtful) and strong safety Ray Ray Armstrong gain experience and confidence. The biggest weakness all season for Miami has been the special teams that continually have breakdowns, leaving the Canes on the losing end of field position swaps. Miami has covered last five of six October assignments and are 18-7 ATS when they score 29 to 35 points.

Wake Forest (4-4, 2-5 ATS) will at least be home for this daunting task. The Demon Deacons still have faint hopes of winning a second ACC Atlantic title and figure to have to win out even to have a chance. Wake Forest is also seeking a fourth consecutive winning season under coach Jim Grobe, with the one constant besides the coach being signal caller Riley Skinner. The fortunes of the Deacons are on the right arm of the senior quarterback. When he has time to throw or rollout, Wake Forest easily can score close to or over 30 points. But when Skinner is pressured and scrambling for his life and receivers stand flat-footed watching, the 13 points totaled in losses to Clemson and Navy is not unexpected. The Demon Deacons are 7-4 ATS off non-ACC action.

Since Miami joined the ACC, the Hurricanes are 3-0 SU and ATS against Wake Forest. The official line could carry a lot of weight with the Deacons 7-2 ATS as home underdog to a ranked opponent .

3DWLine – Miami by 2.5

Michigan State (-3.5, 46) at Minnesota 8:00 BTN

After the stomach-turning 15-13 loss to Iowa on the last play, Michigan State (4-4, 3-4 ATS) is playing for second place in the Big Ten and Capitol One Bowl bid. The Spartans have just three remaining conference clashes and was lucky to bypass Ohio State this season. They will take on Penn State at home, which could be very important contest as the season plays out. First up is Minnesota and Michigan State is 3-5 and 2-6 ATS against the Golden Gophers. Coach Mark Dantonio is blessed having two quarterbacks that can really play and with both being injured at various points, the other has stepped in and played admirably. Michigan State is 12-3 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 or less points.

Minnesota (4-4, 3-5 ATS) is off successive taxing road bouts at Penn State and Ohio State and is seeking to return to winners circle. The Gophers offense has been fluctuating all season between fair and bad, with the latter more prevalent lately. Quarterback Adam Weber has not succeeded without a running game (last in Big Ten) and opponents have double-teamed star receiver Eric Decker, choking off offensive production. The offensive line never gelled, which focused greater attention on the two Minnesota playmakers. Now with Decker out, the situation becomes even dicier. This has led Minnesota backers to fustigate, wondering when 6-foot-4 freshman quarterback MarQueis Gray starts seeing extended playing time. With Michigan State conceding just 3.1 yards per carry, the Golden Gophers are 4-13 ATS in home games versus rushing defenses allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards a try.

These teams have not played since 2006 and Minnesota is 8-16 ATS as single digit Big Ten underdog. Prior to the Gophers winning and covering as favorites in 2005-06, the underdog had been 6-0 ATS. Michigan State will give undivided attention, with only Western Michigan from the MAC next foe. The Spartans have collected handsomely with 8-3 ATS Big Ten road record.

3DWLine – Michigan State by 3

Texas (-9.5, 53) at Oklahoma State 8:00E ABC/GP

It has been a different year in the Big 12, especially compared to last season. All the offensive fireworks and exceptional individual performances have been replaced by injuries to key players and many of the same player’s just off-kilter. Among them is quarterback Colt McCoy, who keeps being reported in Longhorn blogs as ready to have sensational performance (finally against Missouri he did). While he certainly could break loose the rest of the year, this is different Texas (7-0, 2-4-1 ATS) team. McCoy, like many quarterbacks that came into the season with high expectations, has played with less abandon, carrying the weight of the team. Again, no real running game has emerged (5th in Big 12) and defensive coaches have made a concerted effort not to let McCoy run loose out of the pocket. Fortunately, the Texas defense has been a constant all year (No.2 in total defense) and it might well be that side of the ball that carries the Longhorns to Big 12 title and possibly other areas in 2009. Texas is 6-2 ATS in the second of two true road games and the Horns are 29-12 ATS off a road win against a conference rival.

Oklahoma State (6-1, 4-2-1 ATS) is another Big 12 team that hasn’t been right all year. The Cowboys offense doesn’t appear to be that different, scoring 37 points per game compared to 40.8 in 2008. However the Okie State power trio has not been together. Running back Kendall Hunter is still nursing an ankle/foot injury and wide receiver Dez Bryant has been suspended by the NCAA. This has left the burden on quarterback Zac Robinson, who struggled in the early part of the year, but has been sharp since October started. Oklahoma State can’t continue to be the most penalized team in the country (9.4 per game as press time) if they want to be a true national power. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS after three or more consecutive straight up wins over the last two seasons.

This is Oklahoma State’s chance to steal the thunder. If they can upset Texas, the world will be looking in on Stillwater and if would win out in the Big 12, they are the South Division champs. History is not on their side, with the Cowboys are 0-10 and 3-6-1 ATS against Texas and 4-19 and 6-15-2 ATS against ranked teams.

3DW Line – Texas by 5

USC (-3, 47) at Oregon 8:00E ABC/GP

The Oregon Ducks (6-1, 5-2 ATS) have rare opportunity in the Pac-10 since Pete Carroll took over as the USC head coach. With a win, Oregon controls their destiny. Besides the fact of being at home, the Ducks defense has been something to quack about. After a lumbering start (27.3PPG in first three contests), coach Chip Kelly’s defense has permitted just 38 points in their last four outings and is second in the Pac-10 in points allowed (16.7) and 19th in the country in yards allowed (297.1). In order to beat USC, the defense has to limit big plays and make the Trojans score field goals. Creating seams for freshman RB LaMichael James is imperative, since that opens up passing lanes for QB Jeremiah Masoli. The Ducks signal caller has to play under control and contain emotions. His accuracy as a passer will be every bit as important as what he does with his legs. Oregon is 23-10 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging eight or more passing yards per attempt.

The Trojans (6-1, 2-5 ATS) took care of one Oregon state university last week 42-36 and goes for the sweep in Eugene. It is starting to look like the movie “Groundhog” with USC gathering steam as November approaches. The defense is one of the finest in the country, though shaky against the pass the last two weeks in allowing 614 yards. USC coaches are opening the playbook more each week as quarterback Matt Barkley’s confidence soars. Look for USC to pressure Oregon with its relentless pass rushers and All-American safety Taylor Mays to take away Masoli’s favorite target TE Ed Dickson. USC is 9-4 ATS in the first of two road games.

This is Oregon’s time and they know, but how will they perform against USC team built for these moments? Oregon is 5-10 ATS vs. USC in last 15 meetings, with the favorite having covered seven of last eight. The road team is 8-4 ATS since 1993.

3DW Line - Oregon by 5.5

Saturday College Football Betting Previews

With conference play on across the country, important matchups popup the second Saturday in October that will have a massive impact on what the standings will look like in early December. The winners will emerge with a decided edge and the losers will be playing catch-up unless the breaks fall their way. Ole Miss has to beat Alabama, since another SEC loss relegates them to less bowl possibilities. The winner of Wisconsin and Ohio State grabs the upper hand in the Big Ten and both host Iowa. Oregon is playing like many thought they would back in August; however that has been in Eugene, they’ll see what they can do at UCLA. The Hawkeyes will try and move to 6-0 hosting Michigan after dark. The loser of Georgia and Tennessee will have to take a look at their goals for the rest of the year. Odds courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Georgia (+1, 46) at Tennessee 12:00E SEC Network

The SEC is steeped in football tradition, which makes no sense why Georgia and Tennessee can’t be played on what it historically known for “the third Saturday in October”. Every college football fan south of the Mason-Dixon Line knows this; but the schedule-makers have decided to ignore tradition. The Bulldogs (3-2, 1-4 ATS) are off emotionally draining 20-13 home joust with LSU, which was their last home game until Nov.7. Coach Mark Richt’s squad has had to fight for everything this season, not having supreme talent difference. Quarterback Joe Cox has played fairly well, but has made his contribution to Georgia having 13 turnovers this season. A.J. Green and Cox have been clicking with more regularity, opening up the running game. The Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS in the first of two or more SEC true road encounters.

After losing to Auburn 26-22, Tennessee (2-3 SU&ATS) is in a very demanding position. The Volunteers defense has been struck by a large amount of injuries, forcing backups to compete in this extremely competitive conference. Coaches can say the next person has to be prepared and step up, however, when you are facing multiple substitutions, the task becomes more daunting. Tennessee is seeing more eight man fronts, daring quarterback Jonathan Crompton to throw and he needs to keep his poise and deliver strikes. The Vols are 10-23 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9.

Off last week’s challenging encounters, this is gut-check time for both SEC squads. Another conference loss could send Tennessee tumbling, with Alabama and South Carolina on deck after a bye week. The visiting team is 4-2 and 5-1 ATS and Georgia stays in the SEC East hunt with a victory. Totals players beware, the Vols are 10-0 UNDER against SEC opponents over the last two seasons.

3DWLine – Tennessee by 7

Alabama (-4.5, 46) at Mississippi 3:30E CBS

Alabama (5-0, 4-1 ATS) continues to look like the most complete team in the country after cornering Kentucky 38-20 and can take another step closer to realizing just how good they could be. Quarterback Greg McElroy has surpassed all outsiders’ expectations and runs an efficient attack with ample weaponry. McElroy’s claim to fame before this season was sitting and waiting his turn to become starter. However, he’s earning other acclaim with 22-0 record as starter dating back to high school. To date, the defense has shutdown every offense, with its domineering defensive line and has incredible size and speed everywhere else. The Crimson Tide are 12-5-1 ATS on the road against ranked teams.

Mississippi’s hopes of being SEC West champs hinge on the outcome of this contest in Oxford. This means Jevan Snead has to forget about all the preseason hype that surrounded him and be the same player he was last season. The offense has had zero rhythm all season. Besides Snead’s accuracy issues, pass protection has been failing in obvious pass situations and the running game is more inconsistent than an episode of “Brothers”. The defense has carried Ole Miss (3-1, 2-1 ATS) and they will need another ginormous effort against the Crimson Tide. Mississippi is 9-3 ATS as home underdogs at The Grove vs ranked teams.

Alabama has won 13 of last 15 meetings, but the visitor is 2-7 ATS in last nine get-togethers. The Tide has won five in a row, including controversial contest two years ago in Oxford on shaky at best call that went their way late, that preserved 27-24 win as six-point road favorites. Bama has not covered the spread against the Rebels since 2004.

3DW Line – Alabama by 3.5

Wisconsin (+16, 47) at Ohio State 3:30E ABC-ESPN

This will be Wisconsin’s second straight road game and they are 29-14 ATS in road games in the first half of the season. QB Scott Tolzien continues to be efficient and re-juggled offensive line has kept his uniform clean. Tolzien has found different receivers, but when it’s time to move the Badgers into the end zone, tight end Garrett Graham is the preferred choice. On defense, Wisconsin (5-0, 2-2 ATS) is finding better combinations to slow opponents running game and rush the passer; nonetheless, the secondary still allows too many big plays. Wisky is 0-8 ATS versus excellent defensive teams allowing 285 or fewer yards per game over the last three seasons.

Since surrendering 27 points against the Navy’s option offense, Ohio State’s defense has conceded 32 total points in next four games. Normally this would draw huge media attention, but with the Buckeyes big game woes and the Big Ten’s fall in stature, the Kardashian’s attract more interest. Ohio State (4-1 SU&ATS) has turned into Coke Zero under coach Jim Tressel. They look and feel like the original, but are rather dull, leaving nobody all that excited. The defense recently pitched a pair of shutouts for the first time in 13 years, but few outside of Columbus could name a Buckeyes defensive starter. QB Terrelle Pryor was flashy recruit, but he’s been mostly effective in Tressel’s offense, lacking pizzazz. Ohio State is 3-7 ATS in the middle of a road sandwich.

Wisconsin is the only team to conquer Ohio State three times this decade and they are 6-3 ATS since 1996. No reason for the Buckeyes not to be focused since they will be large favorites in next three games and they are 17-4 ATS in home games versus offensive clubs averaging 425 or more yards per game.

3DW Line – Ohio State by 14.5

Oregon (-3.5, 46.5) at UCLA 3:30E ABC-GP

The word is out; don’t go to sleep on UCLA, as they stand 3-1 this season after Stanford conflict. The Bruins defense doesn’t have much depth, but their front-line players can stop the run and chase down frightened quarterbacks, ranking 20th nationally in total defense. Coach Rick Neuheisel isn’t certain if regular starting signal caller Kevin Prince’s broken jaw is sufficiently healed, but if not, senior Kevin Craft is an adequate replacement. Coach Rick would really like to get freshman Randall Carroll and Morrell Presley more involved in the passing game and utilize their speed for longer gains. The Bruins (3-1 ATS) are big and bad at home with 17-5 ATS Pac-10 record in the last five seasons.

Oregon (4-1, 3-2 ATS) followed up dismantling of California by rubbing out Washington State 52-6. This will be the Ducks first road game since losing to Boise State. Since dispirited effort in Idaho, the Oregon offense has averaged 40.7 points per game, with junior quarterback Jeremiah Masoli regaining his passing eye and touch. The big turnaround in confidence for Masoli has coincided with playing pitch and catch with tight end Ed Dickson. Redshirt freshman running back LaMichael James is quickly making people forget what’s his name (LeGarrette Blount). The Ducks make plenty of noise with a 9-2 spread record in their second road of the year.

Oregon would just as soon forget their last trip to the Rose Bowl, being shutout 16-0 as one-point favorites. The home team has had the higher number on the scoreboard in the last three meetings, but the visitor is 12-5 ATS the last 19 years. The Ducks play on the fake turf at home, nevertheless are 19-8 ATS playing on real grass during the regular season. The oddsmakers number might be key, since the underdog is 11-5 against the spread.

3DW Line – Oregon by 1

Michigan (+8, 47.5) at Iowa 8:00E ABC

Michigan (4-1, 3-2 ATS) ran out of gas at in-state rival Michigan State 26-20 in overtime and takes to the road a second straight time. One major difference in the Wolverines revival has been coach Rich Rodriquez’s ability to sell this team on his methods. Michigan is marginally more talented than a season ago, having more speed in key positions along with quarterback more suited to run the offense. However, this team enjoyed early success and came together. The Wolverines are averaging 34 points per game mostly behind QB Tate Forcier, thanks in part to offensive line punching holes in defenses. The Michigan stop unit has yet to stop an offense not in the MAC (ranked 91st) and lacks ability and presumably desire to raise their level of play. Ann Arbor’s finest are 2-6-1 the last few years as Big Ten road underdogs.

After completing non-conference slate with triumph against Arkansas State 24-21, the 5-0 Hawkeyes (3-1 ATS) return to Big Ten battles. This is homecoming weekend and if Iowa can win the next three weeks (at Wisconsin and at Michigan State), the conference crown could be decided quite possibly when they travel to Ohio State in mid-November. Iowa has won with defense and special teams this year. It’s been a foregone conclusion the defense will find a strategy to stop opposing offense (10th in scoring defense) and one aspect of the special teams has delivered weekly. The running game is in good hands with Brandon Wegher and Adam Robinson, but at some point, QB Ricky Stanzi is going to have to lead his team to victory. The Hawkeyes are 27-8 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards a carry.

Michigan arrives in Iowa City 7-1 ATS in the second of two straight road encounters. These teams don’t meet annually, but the Hawkeyes are 6-2-2 ATS in last 10 meetings.

3DW Line – Iowa by 9

Five Prime Choice College Football Games

The calendar has flipped over to October, which means an emphasis on conference play takes over. Even though the season is roughly just a third of the way over, this week has survival mode written all over it already. In mid-September, USC and Cal has national title implication, now the loser could be through in the Pac-10 race. Michigan State believed they were contender for Big Ten hunt; instead they are searching just for a win. Despite perfect record, LSU has not impressed and likely can’t absorb a loss with Alabama, Ole Miss and Florida still to play. Lane Kiffen’s Tennessee squad is looking for bowl bid and doesn’t want to slip below .500 again. Oklahoma and Miami really don’t want to take on another L, if they want to remain relevant. Odds courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Michigan (+3.5, 54.5) at Michigan State BTN 12:00E

The Wolverines (3-1 ATS) leave Ann Arbor for the first time, but at least they are still playing in the state of Michigan. You would have to think Rich Rodriquez team being 4-0 is a minor surprise nationally, though they were favorites in three of them. Kudos to RichRod for adding more speed on both sides of the ball and believing in frosh QB Tate Forcier to run the offense. One overlooked aspect that is less visible is how much better the offensive line plays. All the fancy formations and trickeration is terrific, but unless the big boys up front create running lanes, none of this happens. Meechigan is 3-8 and frightening 1-10 ATS in road opener.

Michigan State (1-2 ATS) fully expected to be no worse than 3-1 coming to this contest, but after Wisconsin loss, they sit at 1-3. The Spartans pass defense has left much to desire and coach Mark Dantonio summed it up best - “We’ve left plays on the field”. With the defense befuddled at present, the offense has to carry the burden. Kirk Cousins has won the quarterback job and the sophomore has been poised much of the time and shown ability to deliver the pigskin on target to Spartan receivers. Michigan State is 0-6-2 ATS in last eight home sandwich encounters.

In this Wolverine State battle, it’s always meant more to the Spartans, being the second-class citizen, especially in football. Last year they broke their six-game losing streak to Michigan and won at the Big House for the first time since 1990. The visitor is 4-1-1 ATS in last six matchups and the SU winner is 13-3 ATS. The Wolverines opened as favorites and have been shifted to underdogs, which makes the dog play all that more interesting, since the hound is 8-2-1 ATS in East Lansing.

3DWLine – Michigan State by 1.5


LSU (-3.5, 50.5) at Georgia CBS 3:30E

Georgia is 2-0 in the SEC and could be a surprise team of sorts with a win over unbeaten LSU. The Bulldogs (3-1, 1-3 ATS) offense has clicked in averaging 37.6 points per game in last three contests, as senior signal caller Joe Cox has settled into comfortable rhythm. Coach Mark Richt believes even better days are ahead. “We’ve been finding a way to keep it exciting,” Richt said. “I’m very thankful for the victory, excited to be 2-0 in the SEC. I don’t think we’ve come close to playing as well as we can.” Defensively, these Bulldogs have no bite, ranked 67th in total defense and even worse 91st against the pass. There soft zone isn’t exactly the Da Vinci code and a lack of pass rush makes it easier to understand than a Ron White joke. Georgia is 10-15-1 ATS in SEC action the last four seasons.

How good is LSU? Were about to find out with three strenuous conference conflicts starting in Athens. The best description of the Tigers (4-0, 1-2-1 ATS) to this point is “workmanlike” and their victory over Washington to start the year was proof. Last week, in spite a 4-0 turnover advantage, LSU needed a goal line stand at Mississippi State to hold off those Bulldogs. LSU’s offense is ranked last in the SEC at 310 yards per game. QB Jordan Jefferson has his moments as passer and LSU does have talent on the perimeter with Terrance Tolliver and Brandon LaFell. The running game has been inconsistent and can’t afford another pathetic performance like last week when they finished with 30 yards. There is no shortage of athletes on defense, however against the two best offenses they’ve faced; LSU has conceded almost 25 points per game. The Tigers are 20-14-1 ATS on the SEC road the last nine years, but 1-8 ATS after a game where they forced three or more turnovers.

Under coach Miles, the Tigers are 9-24-3 ATS in league play and are 0-3 SU and ATS versus Georgia. Last year’s 14-point win was the largest over LSU in five decades. The Bulldogs have struggled with teams sporting 75 percent or higher win percentage, with 3-14 ATS mark. LSU does have history on their side after running the ball so poorly, being 14-3 ATS in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game.

3DWLine –Georgia by 4

Auburn (+2.5, 52) at Tennessee ESPN 7:45E

Don’t look for another boring 14-12 game like last season when these teams met. Last year, over two-thirds of the drives (29 total) between Auburn and Tennessee were four plays or fewer, making viewers yawn incessantly. The Tigers (4-0, 3-1 ATS) high-powered offense is averaging 45.2 points per game, with over 526 total yards. It’s a great story of character, as QB Chris Todd has overcome last year’s problems and thrived in offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn’s new offense. In the only above average offense the Auburn defense faced, they struggled (30 points allowed). Tennessee doesn’t necessarily present the same issues that West Virginia exposed. However, if Jonathan Crompton tosses more errant passes, the Tigers have real ball-hawks that will pick them off. This is Auburn’s initial road contest and they are 10-3 ATS in this spot.

Tennessee (2-2 ATS) is back to .500 after outlasting Ohio U 34-23. Coach Lane Kiffin would kill to have a better option than Crompton under center, but he doesn’t. Crompton makes terrible decisions and often worse throws that lead to interceptions. Kiffin has placed the offense in the hands of the offensive line and running backs, trying to give his club the best chance to win. No such issues on the defensive side where safety Eric Berry leads a scrappy contingent that gives its all. Defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin wants his guys to be more disciplined in third down situations, as the two BCS teams the Vols have played are converting almost 50 percent. Tennessee is 6-13-1 ATS hosting SEC opponents.

Being in opposite SEC divisions, these teams don’t play one another frequently. Auburn has won last four meetings (2-2 ATS), with previous loss to Tennessee coming in 1999. The underdog has covered the spread the last three, with the Volunteers 5-1 ATS in orange uniforms. Timing is everything and the Volunteers are 10-22 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

3DW Line – Tennessee by 1.5

Oklahoma (-7.5, 49.5) at Miami ABC-GP 8:00 ABC

Coach Randy Shannon has taken what appeared to be impossible situation and turned into a positive. Miami’s (2-1 SU&ATS) first four games were the most challenging in college football. If they can upset Oklahoma this week, this would mark the return of the importance of the “U” in college football. Jacory Harris has blossomed as sophomore in offensive scheme that suits his abilities. What’s most impressive about Harris’ growth is his football IQ, completing passes to everyone but the ball boy, with a dozen different receivers catching his tosses. Running back Kraig Cooper continues to be a versatile performer, sparking the offense where needed. The defensive line is tougher than the bouncers at The Mansion at Miami Beach. The Hurricanes however are 7-11 ATS at home against Top 25 clubs.

Oklahoma (2-1 SU&ATS) wanted to make sure it was prepared and had a bye week, which was to supposed to benefit Heisman winner Sam Bradford, but coach Bob Stoops is saying that Landry Jones will be his starting quarterback. After the BYU loss, the offense has gotten back in gear and the defense has played at the level most expected before the season began, hanging a couple of zeros on the scoreboard against Idaho State and Tulsa. Coach Stoops has praised the offensive line for opening bigger holes for runners Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray. The Sooners are 9-0 ATS off a win and playing non-conference foe.

If Miami (2-1 SU&ATS) thought they saw a lot of pressure in being overwhelmed by Virginia Tech defense, wait till they see the Sooners’ defenders. Oklahoma laid it on Miami 51-13 two years ago in Norman as 11-point favorites and is 28-5 (7-8 ATS) against all current ACC squads. Boomer Sooner is 10-2 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards (45-0 over Tulsa) and 8-1 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game.

Miami returns to Landshark Stadium 2-10 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite. The Hurricanes only loss to present Big 12 teams was to the Sooners; otherwise they are 8-0 SU and ATS. The last time Oklahoma faced the Canes in Miami was the 1988 Orange Bowl when they lost 20-14, ending a perfect season.

3DWLine – Oklahoma by 9.5

USC (-4.5, 46.5) at California ABC-GP 8:00E

This isn’t the kind of game USC (3-1, 1-3 ATS) has a problem getting up for and playing their best, however a deeper question exists beyond all the quarterback chatter. What’s the deal with the rest of the Trojans? The offensive line is supposed to be great, thus far that’s very debatable except in spurts. The defense has a ton of talent, but needs the vocal leadership of Taylor Mays as a rallying point, especially in times of adversity. Could the quarterback play be better, of course it, yet the fact remains these are 18 and 19 year olds and no matter what kind of uniform they where, they are going to have rough spots and it’s up to their teammates to step it up and help whoever is under center. The Trojans are 8-1 ATS as 3.5-10-point road favorites.

Off the blowout loss to Oregon, this is the defining game that will tell the story of the Cal Bears (3-1, SU&ATS) in 2009. Forget USC’s Washington State triumph, the Trojans haven’t looked this vulnerable early in the season since Pete Carroll’s first year in 2001. Coach Jeff Tedford knows he has the better quarterback in Kevin Riley and the best running back in Jahvid Best coming into this matchup. The Trojans might have better overall personnel on defense, but with players like defensive end Tyson Alualu and cornerback Syd’Quan Thompson, Cal can certainly compete, especially if they can control the USC running game. The Bears are 9-4 ATS at Berkeley against ranked opponents.

This Strawberry Canyon collision takes on completely different significance with each team having a Pac-10 loss. The loser at best is looking at Holiday Bowl as most reachable goal from this juncture, not exactly soul-stirring when dreaming of national title chase. Confidence will be extremely important, since both will take shots and how they react will figure into the outcome.

California is 8-0 ATS at home the last two years, but the visitor is 10-3 against the spread in this anticipated Pac-10 tilt. With California 1-7 and 3-5 ATS in last eight meetings and the Trojans 5-16 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games, survivor gear required.

3DW Line – Cal by 4.5

College Football Betting Saturday

It’s a busy Saturday of college football and sports bettors should be ready with a number of compelling televised matchups. The most important contest of the day has USC traveling to Ohio to tackle the Buckeyes; however that isn’t the only one. Notre Dame and Michigan get to prove which program is further along on rebuilding process. Lane Kiffin and Tennessee will try to extract revenge for last year’s loss at UCLA. West Virginia is also looking to settle a score with East Carolina, after being dressed down by the Pirates last season. Finally, it’s the SEC opener for South Carolina and Georgia, with both teams seeking offense. It promises to be quite a day. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

East Carolina (+6, 44) at West Virginia 3:30E

Last year, East Carolina burst onto the scene with opening game upsets over Virginia Tech and West Virginia. The Pirates went on to win the Conference USA championship. With 16 returning starters, they’ll try and take the next step in beating a major BCS school on the road. In a league known for wide-open offenses, coach Skip Holtz went for defense. The D-line is a particular is a strength, with the likes of Jay Ross and Linval Joseph on the inside at tackle and C.J. Wilson and Scotty Robinson covering up the ends. Whatever they miss, last year’s leading tackler, middle linebacker Nick Johnson cleans up. East Carolina is 13-3 ATS on the road the last four seasons.

A new era of West Virginia football continues without Pat White at quarterback. Jarrett Brown is the new big on campus and he’ll hopefully lead a more varied attack with four or five exciting targets to throw to like slot receiver Jock Sanders. The one mainstay is running back Noel Devine, who will now be the featured runner. Devine ran for over 1200 yards a season ago and with White no longer toting the pigskin as much, the junior scat back could add 300 to 500 yards to his total if the offensive line comes together. The Mountaineers are mediocre 11-18-1 ATS as home favorites since 2003.

West Virginia had seven-game winning streak snapped last year at East Carolina, but is still 17-3 and 5-3 ATS all-time against the Pirates. The Mountaineers are perfect 12-0 at home versus the squad from Greenville, NC and are 4-1 ATS. Last year was the first time in 79 games the ‘Teers had been held without touchdown and they’ll have serious revenge on their minds this season. Just keep in mind East Carolina is 10-2 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.

UCLA (+10, 45) at Tennessee ESPN 4:00E

Last year’s 27-24 overtime loss at UCLA set the wheels in motion for Philip Fullmer to be done as coach in Knoxville. Two games later, a home drubbing by Florida showed just how far the talent level has slipped at Tennessee. Lane Kiffin left the Oakland Raiders in controversy and created plenty being hired in Tennessee. With one impressive win over Western Kentucky under their belts, this is a game the Vols must have if they want to go bowling this season. The offensive line returns four starters and they got off to great start with the Vols runners totaling 380 yards on the ground last week. Granted, the competition was much, but quarterback Jonathan Crompton appeared more poised and mature. Look for Tennessee to run the ball with a decent collection of backs and Crompton throwing mainly play-action passes to better receivers than a year ago who lack experience. The Vols are 7-14 ATS vs. present Pac-10 teams.

It’s year two in Rick Neuheisel’s return to UCLA campus, however it might be only a little better than last year’s 4-8 opening salvo. The starting signal caller is red-shirt freshman Kevin Prince and the Bruins offensive staff likes his ability, however, will have to be patient with his inexperience. The offensive line and running backs are strictly generic, which will limit production. The defense will be the strength of this squad with solid performers up and down the starting 11. They will have to pressure and confuse Crompton, similar to last year and hopefully force a few miscues to place offense in position to score. UCLA is 8-2 ATS as underdogs when opponents are in revenge spot.

The Bruins are 6-2 against the spread vs. Tennessee and are 20-7 ATS the first two weeks of the season. Off last week’s rout of Western Kentucky, the Volunteers are 8-3-1 ATS at Neyland Stadium as a home favorite the last three years and are 9-0 UNDER in home games after a win by 28 or more points. This could be table-setter for big trip to Gainesville next week.

Notre Dame (-3, 48) at Michigan ABC 3:30E

If adversity builds character, then Rich Rodriguez and Charley Weis are two men well-versed in character issues to sell their respective teams on. No coach in America probably is looking forward to game day more than RichRod as controversy follows him around like a shadow. Rodriguez primarily stayed with Tate Forcier as his quarterback last week against Western Michigan and the results were impressive in Michigan’s 31-7 victory. The offense showed more continuity with everyone more experienced and knowing what the expectations are concerning assignments. The Wolverines should be nastier on defense with defensive coordinator Greg Robinson in charge of that side of the ball. Nevertheless, he installed a new 3-4 concept, which means a learning curve for a team that is 14-21-1 ATS at the Big House since 2004.

Notre Dame gave a stunning performance at home against a pretty good Nevada club winning 35-0. Weis’ Fighting Irish will take this act on the road for the first time in 2009. Offensively, Notre Dame is expected to be score points all season with junior Jimmy Clausen in command, throwing to a receiver contingent as good as any in the country. The offensive line has to come off the ball and open holes for an above average stable of backs and if Notre Dame can run effectively, the offense should really hum. From athletic perspective, this is best defense in South Bend in years. The question is how badly will the youth hurt them? The Irish are 3-6 and 2-7 ATS in road openers.

This is one of those crazy college football series, with the underdog 12-2 ATS, which has included five upsets in last seven meetings. How Forcier handles the Irish onslaught of pressure will go a long way in determining outcome. If he can make big plays, the Wolverines have a shot, if not, Notre Dame should win. In watching both teams, the most striking aspect is RichRod’s team should be where Weis’ squad is next season. Michigan is 0-7 ATS after playing a game at home, the Fighting Irish are 10-1 UNDER in road games over the last three seasons.

South Carolina (+7, 38) at Georgia ESPN 7:00E

South Carolina has been dying to have a top level football program for some time now; the problem is history doesn’t back them up. The Gamecocks had won 28 games in last four seasons for only the second time in school history (granted, more chances to win with expanded schedule) during Steve Spurrier’s four years. Off the 7-3 defensive struggle with N.C. State, it’s fairly clear Spurrier has a team that should finish above .500, with a losing SEC record. They can attempt to alter people’s perceptions with an upset between the hedges at Georgia. Sophomore QB Stephen Garcia has to be the leader of an offense that has many deficiencies. The defense showed they have ability in holding the Wolfpack to three points and the Gamecocks arrive in Athens 7-3-1 ATS as SEC road underdogs.

Georgia got an early wakeup call at Oklahoma State and were handled 24-10. The Bulldogs have ample talent in supply with one of the best offensive lines in the SEC, however they were held in check for 95 total yards last week. Senior QB Joe Cox, can’t be “no ordinary Joe” like last Saturday and must be more accurate tossing the ball to talented A.J. Green among others. This is big year for defensive coordinator Willie Martinez, with 10 of the 11 projected starters for this SEC showdown either juniors or seniors. Georgia has surrendered 30 or more points in last 53 games under Martinez compared to four times in previous four years before his arrival. The Bulldogs are just 4-9 ATS the last four years as conference favorites.

These matchups have been low scoring, tight contests. Georgia was the last team to score 20 points in this confrontation in 2004 and six of last eight have been decided by seven points or less. The wagering public has taken the total from 41 to present level. The Gamecocks are 16-4 UNDER the first two weeks of the season and the Bulldogs are 23-9 UNDER in the first month of a new campaign. The visitor is 5-2-1 ATS of late, with the favorite 7-4-1 against the number.

USC (-6.5, 45) at Ohio State ESPN 8:00E

Though it will be downplayed as such, every Big Ten fan (except possibly in Ann Arbor) would relish an Ohio State victory, even if they hate the Buckeyes. The Big Ten could be a running joke on the new Jay Leno nightly show if they are clobbered again by the Trojans. What’s unfortunate is Jim Tressel’s teams just haven’t been able to beat Florida and USC in the last several seasons in the biggest games and now they are looked upon as outcasts. A strong case can be made the Buckeyes are Phil Mickelson playing in the Tiger Woods era, among the very best, just not the best. Sophomore sensation Terrelle Pryor has enough faith in himself that he can take Ohio State to next plateau starting now. The Buckeyes have had success against Pac-10 teams, but not against USC (0-4 ATS).

Does any team relish the spotlight more than Pete Carroll’s squad? When the lights come, USC is usually at their best and they are 11-1 SU and ATS in initial road game of the season. The offensive line is Top 3 in every preseason publication and seldom is there a short supply of running backs at USC. Junior RB Joe McKnight is starting to play up to expectations when he hit the USC campus and last week had a scintillating 145-yard, two touchdown game on 14 carries. Freshman Matt Barkley will have to play his way out of the starting job and looks to be the next great Trojans field general. The defense lost a ton of NFL talent, however no one is thinking the replacements won’t be top level.

Statement games are a USC specialty and they are 13-3 and 12-4 ATS against Top 10 teams since 2001. The Ohio State defense must finds ways to rattle the youngster Barkley and possibly create turnovers that lead to points. The Trojans are 36-18 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game and 8-1 ATS in non-conference games. Unless Buckeyes come up big, it will be the same old “overrated” mantra about the Big Ten.

Early Line Moves

Next year 3Daily Winners expects to have a football newsletter, but in the meantime, we will offer Free inside information. When we say “inside information” we mean finding material not commonly found on other websites and blogs. In other words we had to figure it out. One popular and profitable segment I’ve followed for years is Early Line Moves.

If you read the interview with Fezzik, the professional bettor from Las Vegas, he explains how sharp bettors like himself hit the action early, pounding on weak numbers. (You can find the interview, take a minute or two) Over the years I’ve followed this regularly and over 77 percent of the time, the various segments I looked after have shown a profit over the season.

I mentioned last week about not being comfortable with Week 1 numbers, since bookmakers release them so early, it’s hard to tell if the action is sharps or squares. The numbers at least in my opinion bore this out, with the sides 5-8 and the totals 2-3 in college football. All I can say is be careful with the NFL this week. I’m assuming the CFB figures will be more reliable this week. (For those not familiar with this, the numbers showing are opening figures and those found early in the week to establish differences)

College Sides
Wake Forest Pick to -3
Washington -18 to -21
Missouri -16.5 to -19.5
Tulsa -14.5 to -17.5
USC -4.5 to -7

College Totals
So. Carol/Georgia 41 to 38
UCLA/Tenn 48 to 45
SMU/UAB 58 to 61
Pitt/Navy 53.5 to 49
Rice/Tex. Tech 72 to 66
BG/ Misso 61 to 57
Kansas/UTEP 66 to 62.5
K-State/ULL 64.5 to 58.5

NFL Sides
Baltimore -8.5 to -13
Philadelphia +1 to -2
Cincy -1 to -4
Dallas -3 to -6
San Diego -7 to -9

NFL Totals
Dall/TB 42 to 39
Wash/NYG 39.5 to 37
Chic/GB 44 to 46.5

Five Extra-Large College Football Previews

Thursday was a nice appetizer; however what college football and sports bettors are looking for is day long action. Depending on your proximity it’s time to get those last wagers in and settle in for great day. Will Notre Dame finally look like a program on the rise? Can Oklahoma State knock off opponent with real pedigree? Is this the year Illinois wins the Arch Rivalry? Is Oklahoma worthy of lofty ranking with rebuilt offense? Will Virginia Tech prove the ACC is on the rise vs. Alabama? All or part of these questions will start to be answered on Saturday.

Georgia (+5, 61) at Oklahoma State 3:30E ABC-GP

The Georgia Bulldogs seemingly are returning to what they do best under coach Mark Richt. In his eight seasons in Athens, Richt is 82-22 (51-47-1 ATS) and his best teams were usually those with less gaudy expectations. Matthew Stafford raised the SEC title beliefs and when they weren’t delivered, enough Bulldogs backers wondered why. This year it is back to basics, with workman-like Joe Cox under center. Cox and the rest of the seniors were put thru the paces by Richt in the spring, expecting them to lead by example. Last year’s offensive line failures are expected to be replaced by hungry individuals returning from injury or those seeking playing time. Sophomore A.J. Green is first team All-SEC pass catcher and will ease Cox’s transition. Defensively, Georgia has the athletes on the line to quell running game and linebacker Rennie Curran is on many All-American lists. The Bulldogs are 8-0 and 5-2-1 ATS in first away game of the year.

Oklahoma State comes off their most successful season since 2003 at 9-4. Former Cowboys gunslinger and head coach Mike Gundy (27-23, 23-21-2 ATS) has the program headed in the right direction with three consecutive winning seasons and three bowl bids. The next order of business is climbing into top three in Big 12 South. For Gundy’s squad to take this step, he must have defensive improvement. Since the 2002 season, Oklahoma State has not ranked higher than 74th in total defense. Cornerback Perrish Cox and linebacker Andre Sexton will try to lead the improvement, but it will be the D-Line that will determine fate. On offense, it’s hard to find a better trio than quarterback Zac Robinson, running back Kendall Hunter and receiver Dez Bryant. This deadly trio helped lead an offense that scored 40.8 points per game last season. Though that imposing number might be difficult to reach again, the Cowboys will score a ten-gallon hatful of points. Sportsbook.com has Okie State as five-point favorites with total of 61 and Gundy’s crew is 7-1-1 ATS as home favorites Boone Pickens Stadium.

This is return match from two years ago, when Georgia won at home 35-14. Okie State has won 13 straight home openers (5-3 ATS); however this is different type of opponent. The Cowboys are 4-18 and 6-14-2 ATS against ranked teams.

Nevada (+15, 62) at Notre Dame 3:30E NBC

Charley Weis has had a tumultuous time at Notre Dame and if things haven’t been challenging enough, this billboard popped up in South Bend this week.

-Best wishes to Charlie Weis in the fifth year of his college coaching internship. –

The billboard was paid for by a former Irish football player from the late 1960’s, which was taken down later this week. That sentiment is held by more than one alumni and this the season Weis has to prove he should be the coach in South Bend beyond this season. The offense should have no problems scoring points with triggerman Jimmy Clausen and arguably the best receiver group in the country. The defense will have much to say what direction the Fighting Irish move, being talented and athletic (a rarity), but inexperienced. Notre Dame is 7-13 ATS as home favorites in the Weis regime.

Nevada will receive rare national exposure traveling to South Bend on the first Saturday in September. The country will learn about the Pistol offense, run expertly by QB Colin Kaepernick. The 6’6 junior has a good arm and loping stride that chews up yards in the open field. His backfield partner is RB Vai Taua, who is coming off 1,521-yards season. On defense, the Wolf Pack are relentless pass rushers and will test Clausen’s composure. If they don’t rattle the junior QB, it could get ugly, as Nevada was 119th among 119 FBS schools in past defense last year and has to face this Irish contingent. Coach Chris Ault’s club is 2-7 ATS the last five years against ranked teams.

Notre Dame opened as 8-10-point favorites depending on where you looked and were quickly lifted to current status. The Wolf Pack is 16-25 ATS as dogs of 10 or more points.

Notre Dame can’t overlook Nevada who can score. This is important year for coach Weis or its back to the NFL. Notre Dame just 3-13 ATS against non-BCS schools at home.

Missouri (+6.5, 61) vs Illinois 3:40E ESPN

A new era dawns of Missouri football, starting without Chase Daniel. He wasn’t the only one to depart as high draft picks Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman will being playing on Sunday’s instead. This could mean head man Gary Pinkel (59-41, 50-43-2 ATS) relies on the running game more, at least to start the season. Blaine Gabbert is the starter at quarterback and he will he handing off tailback Derrick Washington, until he feels more comfortable in the pocket. The Tigers lost top receivers, but Jared Perry and Danario Alexander are both seniors and they have contributed plenty and have deep speed. The defensive line’s two deep lacks experience and Jaron Baston is only returning starter. All-Big 12 linebacker Sam Weatherspoon is a stud and will have to be leader. Only one starter is back in defensive backfield, which might not be a big deal after finishing 117th in pass defense. The Tigers have shown some teeth with 8-3 ATS record in first game away from Columbia.

When Ron Zook was hired at Illinois, his recruiting skills were not questioned, his coaching ability was. Many thought Zook had turned a corner after taking Illinois to Rose Bowl two years ago; however last year’s 5-7 campaign opened up Pandora ’s Box again for Zook. That makes this a critical season for Zook, not from a job standpoint, rather if he can take the Illini program to similar status of Wisconsin year-in year-out in the Big Ten. Having Juice Williams should help, if he cuts down interceptions and every down running back emerges to make Williams run less. Arreloius Benn should have true bust-out year and Michael Hoomananwanui needs to have 40+ receptions at tight end. Talented individuals are on defense, with the question being can they be molded in a cohesive unit. The Fighting Illini haven’t shown much fight with 3-9 ATS record the last three years as single digit favorites.

Hard to call Game 1 is critical; nonetheless it could set the tone for both schools. Missouri has won four in a row in the Arch Rivalry and is 8-1 ATS in last nine. Illinois has rugged opening slate and Missouri wants to get program situated early.

BYU (+21.5, 66) vs Oklahoma 7:00E ESPN

BYU is coming off 10-3 endeavor and has its sights set on even greater glory in 2009. The Cougars over the years have not been afraid to take on some of the best programs in the country and they will get a look at one of the finest in Oklahoma. Coach Bronco Mendenhall (38-13, 25-22-1 ATS) has signal caller Max Hall back for senior season. Hall will have new receivers to chuck the pigskin to, making tight end Dennis Pitta especially important as bailout pass catcher. The offensive line needs four new starters, yet the Cougars usually find a way to put together a group of road-graters that can pass protect. The Cougars never mounted a pass rush in 2008 and nothing seems to have changed that much. The corners look weak, which is not what you need against a Heisman Trophy quarterback like Sam Bradford to start you new season. BYU is abominable 4-17 ATS in first game away from home.

Bradford stood behind arguably the best offensive in the college game last year and will have four different helmets to look at this fall. The junior has a quick trigger and Ryan Broyles and Jermaine Gresham will be favorite targets in no-huddle attack. Running backs DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown will find lanes to scoot thru. While the offense doesn’t figure to be as prolific scoring 51.1 points per game, the nine returning starters on defense will play more of a role. Though it sounds ridiculous, the Sooners have six players in defensive line with pro potential, led by Gerald McCoy. Ryan Reynolds and Travis Lewis anchor a swift linebacker core. Oklahoma may disappoint in the biggest games, but don’t think for moment Bob Stoops isn’t elite coach. Boomer Sooner is 8-2 and 7-2-1 ATS in first matchup away from Norman.

After bumbling a bit, the Sooners are 11-1 and 10-1 ATS in non-conference regular season contests the last three years. With BYU having to replace four O-linemen against Sooners defense, the Cougs could be tough spot, already 0-5 ATS versus neutral site ranked teams.

Alabama (-6, 38) vs Virginia Tech 8:00E ABC

Alabama played in SEC title game and made BCS bowl game, are greater things on the horizon for Nick Saban’s (19-8, 12-13-1 ATS) third year in Tuscaloosa? It depends and the answer won’t really be known until later in the season. Where the tricky part is the offense, junior Greg McElroy has waited his turn and is now the big man on campus for the Crimson Tide. McElroy has professed to be ready and sophomore sensation Julio Jones will be one of his favorite targets to pass to. The offensive line has to be reworked with three outstanding starters gone and running back Glen Coffee leaving early. On defense, zero question marks with nine starters back and improving depth in support. All-American nose tackle Terrance “Mount” Cody is poised for colossal campaign and is leaner and reportedly meaner than ever. Rolando McClain is a headache at linebacker and the secondary has aggressive ball-hawks. The Tide have won last five of six as favorites.

Does it seem possible that Virginia Tech was ever bad under coach Frank Beamer? You have to go back to 1992 to find the last losing season in Blacksburg. The Hokies have won 10 or more games eight times in the last decade including five in a row (38-24-1 ATS). With 14 starters back in the fold, this opening game could determine if Virginia Tech is national contender or one of the best in the ACC. Junior Tyrod Taylor in the undisputed leader of the offense. He’s worked diligently to become better passer and expects to see the results. With Darren Evans out with ACL tear an unproven yet versatile running core will have to step up, running behind an offensive that came into its own late last season. Jason Worilds might be just 6’2 240 pound defensive end; however he’s upfield before the tackle is even out of his stance pressuring the quarterback, leading another stern Hokies defense. The Hokies are 12-4 ATS in first roadie of the season.

Oddsmakers have made their case about this matchup. Bama opened as a six-point choice despite a new quarterback and just four returning offensive starters. That speaks volumes about what they think about the difference between SEC and ACC. This is a special opening matchup and Virginia Tech is 17-6 ATS in September road encounters. The Tide is 16-1 SU in opening tilts since 1992, but just 5-10 ATS during that time.

3Daily Winners CFB Top 25

1) Florida
2) Oklahoma
3) Texas
4) USC
5) Alabama
6) Virginia Tech
7) Mississippi
8) Penn State
9) California
10) Ohio State
11) Oklahoma State
12) LSU
13) Boise State
14) Georgia
15) Tennessee
16) Georgia Tech
17) BYU
18) TCU
19) Iowa
20) Florida State
21) Pittsburgh
22) Rutgers
23) Notre Dame
24) Oregon State
25) Utah

Like most polls, the Top 10 is pretty much the same. In reviewing schedules, teams like Penn State, Ohio State, Tennessee and Oregon State graded out higher than even I expected. Your comments positive and negative are welcome. I can't 100 percent deny the rumor that Urban Meyer has copyrighted his picture with the term "Urban Legend".

Ten College Football Bets to Consider in 2009

When the college football schedules were officially released, it is a terrific time to go through the various leagues and forecast what the potentially lucrative spots are to profit from. The factors may include revenge, scheduling and look-aheads. Here is ten specific dates on the calendar which are worthy of consideration for wagers.

September 3
South Carolina at N. C. State

North Carolina State closed the 2008 regular season with four wins to earn bowl berth, before falling 29-23 to an equally hot Rutgers club in the Papajohns.com bowl. Coach Tom O’Brien’s disciplined style started to take root and 15 starters are coming back from last year’s turnaround squad. The Wolfpack were embarrassed 34-0 at South Carolina last year and have return engagement in Raleigh this go-round. The Gamecocks lost a number of talented defenders and last year’s offense was a mess, rushing for just 94.1 yards per game. This matchup will once again be on ESPN and coach Steve Spurrier is only 7-7 ATS in non-conference games and has usual early date with Georgia next on Sept. 12. South Carolina is 2-7-1 ATS facing non-conference foes before the Bulldogs. Motivated Wolfpack do the job.

September 19
Texas Tech at Texas

The first month of the season has only one game that truly matters to returning Texas players, Texas Tech. The Red Raiders kept the Longhorns out of the BCS title game in 2008 and its payback time. Senior QB Colt McCoy has a veteran offensive line and experienced receiving corps, led by Jordan Shipley. Normally coach Mike Leach’s offense does not slow down much when new signal caller is brought in, however expected starter Taylor Potts will be starting on the road for the first time in Austin on a Saturday night, after facing softies North Dakota and Rice. The home team is 8-3 ATS in last 11, add one more W to that total with team in burnt orange burning in-state rival.

September 26
South Florida at Florida State

South Florida returns its two stars; quarterback Matt Grothe and defensive lineman George Selvie. Coach Jim Leavitt has been scheduling softer since joining the Big East and has three milk cartons (Wofford, @ West. Ky. and Charleston Southern) before facing Florida State. Even with quality players like Grothe and Selvie, the lack of big time competition will hurt USF at Tallahassee. The Seminoles will have already played Miami-Fl. and at BYU and be better prepared. Florida State isn’t about to let an in-state squad build reputation at their expense and buries the Bulls with skill and depth.

October 17
Wake Florida at Clemson

More than anything, this is nefarious scheduling slot for Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons suffered four ACC losses last season and their first three conference games are against teams they lost to. The last one is a home game against Maryland, whom they were white-washed by 24-0 last season at College Park. Clemson on the other hand will be off a bye and should be ready after losing as a favorite last year 12-7 at Wake Forest. With the visitor 2-6-2 ATS the last decade, emotionally worn-out Wake doesn’t fire against rested foe.

October 24
Oregon State at USC

The line on this Pac-10 clash probably won’t be fair, however it might not matter. By the end of October, the quarterback will be well-situated, behind a stellar offensive line for perennial power USC and pursuing revenge will be utmost on the Trojans mind after last season’s debacle. Oregon State has holes to fill on the defensive and offensive lines and though the Beavers should be settled, the wave of emotion will be too much to overcome. The visitor is 3-8 ATS and coach Pete Carroll will have his Cheshire cat grin after encounter.

November 7
Houston at Tulsa

The Tulsa offense won’t be as potent as the last several seasons, nevertheless the defense brought back eight starters and they have long memories. The Golden Hurricane started 8-0 in 2008 and had BCS talk swirling around them until they lost at Arkansas 30-23. Two weeks later, still afflicted with pang of first loss, Tulsa ran into hot Houston club who hung 70 points on them, in 40-point loss. (That’s 7 followed by zero) The Cougars are favored to end Tulsa’s claim to C-USA West title this campaign, however they are off huge Southern Miss home game and are stymied by rare November Hurricane in Oklahoma.

November 14
Utah at TCU

Utah grabbed all the headlines in the Mountain West Conference in 2008, with perfect 13-0 season. The Utes won three games by three points or less last season and arguably the toughest was against TCU, who led almost the entire way. The Horned Frogs did everything right, but could not stop Utah on their final deciding drive in 13-10 loss. TCU is the host this campaign and the core players that led to 11-2 season return. With Utah looking for its road legs after three straight home games, the Horned Frogs will be well prepared and are 17-7-1 as single digit conference favorites at Amon G. Cater Stadium.

November 21
Penn State at Michigan State

Penn State will start the season as the #6 team in The Edge, but not too far down the line is Michigan State at 20th. Third year coach Mark Dantonio has upgraded the talent at East Lansing to where the Spartans will have legitimate chance to finish second in the Big Ten, if the cards fall their way. Dantonio is a very serious type and expects his players not to accept losing. Michigan State was pummeled at Penn State 49-18 as 16.5-point underdogs and set up to be home dogs this time around. With excess provocation and the home team 9-3 ATS, expect Sparty to retake the Land Grant Trophy in 2009.

November 27
Rutgers at Louisville

The last Thursday night game of last season was memorable for Rutgers and an absolute nightmare for Louisville. The Scarlet Knights crushed the Cardinals 63-14, out-gaining them 671 to 318. Many are not that optimistic about Louisville’s chances of regaining recent past glory, yet if coach Steve Kragthorpe expects to be coaching beyond this season at present location, he needs his team to watch film of last season for this day after Thanksgiving contest. If the Big East plays out as presumed, Rutgers might take the ‘Ville for granted, looking ahead to season ending encounter at home against West Virginia.

November 28
Rice at Houston

The Cougars may have a tough time in Tulsa, but this offensive juggernaut has some dishing out to do them selves. Houston only needed to win at fellow city disputant Rice, for right to play in C-USA title game, instead was blasted 56-42, in a game that wasn’t that close. Quarterback Case Keenum is dynamic and the Cougars should be right back in same position this time on home turf. Rice loses all its important offensive weapons and these Owls are not going to be noted for defense. Houston may use 70+ point calling card again versus Rice. The home team is 7-3 ATS.

CFB Pre-Season Magazines offer intrigue - Part Dos

In part two of our article about college football pre-season magazines, we’ll take a look at the other five conferences, the Big Ten, Pac-10, SEC, MAC and Sun Belt. Three of the five leagues and or divisions have unanimous choices and it doesn’t take brain surgeon to figure what teams those are, with a few others up for grabs. Read on to learn more and start preparing to place your bets.

Big Ten
1) Ohio State
2) Penn State
3) Michigan State
4) Iowa
5) Illinois
6) Michigan
7) Wisconsin
8) Minnesota
9) Northwestern
10) Purdue
11) Indiana

Analysis- Here’s a surprise; Ohio State and Penn State are the favorites to win the Big Ten. Well, not really. The Buckeyes reload with the best of them and they will find out early where they are on national scope, hosting USC. Honestly, not sure why the Nittany Lions are rated this high with all the personnel losses and they haven’t recruited like the other top schools in the country. This also might be indictment of Big Ten. Michigan State continues to improve under coach Mark Dantonio, however quarterback and running back positions must be filled. Iowa could finish higher if lines on both sides of the pigskin dominate. Illinois could be most explosive offense in the conference and they might need to be, with so many new faces in back seven of defense. Rich Rodriguez better have a winning record in Ann Arbor, or fans of the Maize and Blue will really become restless. Minnesota opens new outdoor venue, but also has trips to Penn State and Ohio State that will impede progress. The rest of the teams have more holes than a Dunkin Donuts. Another so-so year in Big Ten Country.

Pac-10
1) USC
2) California
3) Oregon
4) Oregon State
5) UCLA
6) Arizona State
7) Stanford
8) Arizona
9) Washington
10) Washington State

Analysis – When somebody raises the bar to a new level, aren’t those chasing the lead dog supposed to at least catch them in time, if not surpass their efforts? In spite of only having 12 returning starters (three on defense), USC is the unanimous choice to repeat as Pac-10 champs. Besides Pete Carroll’s ability to fill a three-deep roster with incredible talent, this happens to be the year the Pacific 10 is quarterback poor. Only Washington and Oregon have field leaders that can be counted on to start the year. If one team has legit shot at the Trojans this year, it is California. If Kevin Riley improves accuracy to receiving targets, the 15 other Bears’ players that started last season should be even hungrier. Cal will know where they stand by early October with games at Oregon and USC, the first two on Pac-10 slate. Oregon has new coach in Chip Kelly needing to rebuild O-Line. Oregon State will have several fresh eager Beavers on defense. The rest are trying cover up weakness, with the Washington universities trying to lay foundation.

SEC East
1) Florida
2) Georgia
3) Tennessee
4) So. Carolina
5) Kentucky
6) Vanderbilt

SEC West
1) Mississippi
2) Alabama
3) LSU
4) Arkansas
5) Auburn
6) Mississippi State

Analysis – In the East Division, Florida is the hands-down choice to be play for SEC title again and is most everyone’s No.1 team to start the season. Georgia has just the kind of team that excels when in this position. Coach Mark Richt’s best teams have been those with lower expectations. Tennessee’s Lane Kiffin will eventually have to stop talking and coach, trying to bring in players that can knock off the Gators and Bulldogs. Steve Spurrier has found out top recruits like Gainesville better than Columbia, SC. As mundane as the East appears, the West Division should be rollicking fun. Ole Miss has gathered the most first place votes, with a talented squad led by QB Jevan Snead and Oxford will play host to Alabama, LSU and Tennessee, with Florida or Georgia nowhere in sight. If Greg McElroy is as prepared to lead the Crimson Tide as he believes, those that choose Bama to win the West should be correct. Coach Les Miles has always been unafraid of change and brought in top notch coaches like John Chavis (14 years at Tennessee) to improve his defense. Check with Bookmaker.com for the latest odds. These Tigers will be trouble. This is still the best conference in football by fair margin. (Did you guess that was Tim Tebow pic?)

MAC-East
1) Buffalo
2) Bowling Green
3) Temple
4) Ohio U
5) Akron
6) Kent State
7) Miami-O

MAC –West
1) Central Michigan
2) Western Michigan
3) Northern Illinois
4) Ball State
5) Toledo
6) Eastern Michigan

Analysis- The MAC conference has its up and down years and this could be one of the not so great years with five new coaches among the 13 universities. What last season proved is mediocrity or losing, won’t cut it in the MAC anymore. This conference needs to put fannies in the seats and have teams that play well with all it’s weekday televised games during the course of the season. Buffalo created vast excitement, winning the East Division and is the odds-on choice to repeat, with Bowling Green and Ohio U. snagging first place votes. In the West Division, the two best quarterbacks in the league reside on that half of the ledger. Dan LeFevour will once again be at the helm for Central Michigan, while Tim Hiller is under center for Western Michigan. None of the rest of the squads are presumed to compete for West crown. Everyone is still scratching their heads at Ball State, why Brady Hoke left his alma mater to coach San Diego State. At best a lateral career move for Hoke.

Sun Belt
1) Troy
2) Arkansas State
3) Florida Atlantic
4) Middle Tennessee State
5) UL-Monroe
6) Florida International
7) Louisiana- Lafayette
8) North Texas
9) Western Kentucky

Analysis- Maybe it’s the nickname Trojans, but Troy has the same appeal in the Sun Belt Conference that USC has out West, being unanimous choice. Troy joined the Sun Belt in 2004 and has won three championships in a row. Coach Larry Blakeney recruits well, sets high expectations and hits the road to play top teams like Florida this season. The league as a whole is improving and Arkansas State and Florida Atlantic are part of that development. The Red Wolves are loaded at skill positions, while the Owls are flying with confidence, having won six of last seven contests a year ago, including the Motor City Bowl upset of Central Michigan. Middle Tennessee State has 19 starters back, however many played as freshmen and sophomores. The Blue Raiders have upset potential if Dwight Dasher emerges as quarterback. The remaining group will try to avoid last place, hoping its newest member Western Kentucky, will occupy that spot in 2009.