2010 BIG 10 CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

When you talk Big 10 Football these days you talk Ohio State.

The Buckeyes won at least a share of the last five Big Ten Championships and will look to match the conference record with a sixth straight crown in 2010, equaling the feat first accomplished by Ohio State from 1972-77. OSU became just the second team in conference history to win five straight conference championships after claiming the 2009 title, splitting the crown with Penn State in 2005 and 2008 and ending the 2006, 2007 and 2009 seasons alone in first place. The Buckeyes have compiled a Big Ten mark of 36-4 over the last five years. Ohio State became the first conference team in over 15 years to finish in first place in five straight seasons since Michigan won at least a share of five consecutive championships from 1988-92.

The 2009 Big Ten Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year return to their respective teams in 2010. Wisconsin RB John Clay and Michigan State LB Greg Jones enter the 2010 campaign as the respective winners last season. Clay becomes the first returning Offensive Player of the Year since 1999 when former Purdue quarterback Drew Brees returned to the Boilermakers after being honored as a sophomore in 1998. Jones becomes the first returning Defensive Player of the Year since 2008, when Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitis came back to successfully defend his 2007 conference honor.

The Big Ten also welcomes back seven starting quarterbacks from the 2009 season, five of which led their teams to bowl appearances. Iowa senior Ricky Stanzi and Ohio State junior Terrelle Pryor each led their squads to BCS victories last January, Stanzi in the Orange Bowl and Pryor in the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin senior Scott Tolzien led the Badgers to a victory in the Champs Sports Bowl, while Minnesota senior Adam Weber guided the Gophers to the Insight Bowl. Michigan State junior Kirk Cousins guided the Spartans' in their 31-point effort in the Alamo Bowl. Also returning in 2010 is the conference's top statistical passer, Indiana senior Ben Chappell, and Michigan sophomore Tate Forcier, the only full-time freshman starting quarterback in the Big Ten last year.

And the there’s Joe. Penn State's Joe Paterno picked up his 394th victory with a triumph over LSU in the Capital One Bowl and currently holds the all-time victory record among Football Bowl Subdivision coaches. Paterno has built a record of 394-129-3 in his 44 seasons leading the Nittany Lions. Paterno is the longest serving head coach at one school in major college football history.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

ILLINOIS – 5 / 7
TEAM THEME: OUT OF JUICE
Thanks to a disappointing offense and an even worse defense, the Illini could only squeeze out three wins in 2009. Six new assistant coaches arrive in Champaign to sort out the mess led by OC Paul Petrino (Bobby’s brother) and DC Vic Koennig. Petrino’s playbook won’t include Juice Williams, whose once promising career soured out, or top WR Arrelious Benn, a 2nd round NFL draft pick. The plan may be to revert back to classic Big Ten football as four of the team’s top five RB’s return. In addition, four of the Illini’s top five tacklers are back in the fray. With eight bowlers lining the 2010 schedule, including road trips to Penn State and Fresno State, ‘three yards’ may be a bit optimistic. However, the cloud of dust is likely to hang over this program for at least one more season.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Fresno St (12/3)

INDIANA – *8 / 4
TEAM THEME: QUICK DRAW
The feeling here is the Hoosiers could be a real sleeper team in 2010. Four of their eight losses last year were by 3 points or less. A promising 3-1 start ended in a 0-5 disaster after IU blew a 25-point lead at Northwestern and followed up by choking away a two-TD lead at Iowa. The roster is loaded with upper classmen (19 seniors, 23 juniors) and efficient QB Ben Chappell is back to lead an offense that will add the ‘Pistol’ to its repertoire. Chappell was the first QB in IU history to complete 60% of his passes in a single season. A favorable early schedule could find the Hoosiers off to a quick 5-1 start. However, they’ll need to continue pulling the trigger late in the season to silence some conference opponents and prevent another November nightmare.
PLAY ON: vs. Purdue (11/27)

IOWA – *6 / 8
TEAM THEME: COMEBACK KIDS
Talk about stability. Since 1979 only two coaches have manned the Iowa City sidelines – Hayden Fry and Kirk Ferentz. Ferentz may have saved his best coaching job for 2009. Despite ranking 10th in the Big 10 in scoring, rushing and total offense, the 12-year veteran guided his team to a 6-2 conference record, an 11-2 overall mark and an Orange Bowl win over Georgia Tech. Did we mention that Iowa, amazingly, trailed in every contest last season until the regular-season ender versus Minnesota! The Hawkeyes 10th-ranked defense (277 YPG) constantly saved the day. Expect more of the same in 2010 as it welcomes back eight starters, including the entire front four. The return of injured QB Ricky Stanzi and RB Jewel Hampton should provide the ‘O’ with a much-needed boost. Either way, the Kinnick Stadium crowd should be in for another ‘Kardiac Kampaign’.
PLAY ON: vs. Northwestern (11/13)

MICHIGAN – *7 / 8
TEAM THEME: FORCIER THE ISSUE
Pete Fiutak of College Football News.com put it best when he asked of Rich Rodriguez’s playbook, “Is this thing ever going to work?” As disappointing as Michigan’s spread offense has been, the defense has been worse – decaying 57 YPG since Rich Rod’s arrival. Last season, the Wolves suffered through a 6-game Big Ten losing streak for the first time in 50 years. In fact, Rodriguez has 13 conference losses in just two seasons at Ann Arbor. FYI: It took Bo Schembechler 13 years to lose 13 Big Ten games! There was one bright spot in the Big House and that was the play of freshman QB Tate Forcier, who passed for over 2,000 yards and 13 TD’s. The automakers repaid Obama five years early on their bailout loan. Rodriguez may have to do the same if he doesn’t get it in gear this season.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Notre Dame (9/11)

MICHIGAN STATE – *7 / 6
TEAM THEME: HELTER SKELTER
East Lansing saw the good, bad and ugly in 2009. On the good side, the Spartans beat Michigan for a second straight season – the first time that’s happened since the Beatles were topping the charts in the mid ‘60’s. From a mediocre standpoint, Mark Dantonio’s bunch dropped six regular season games for the first time under his direction – though five of those losses were by a total of just 23 points. Now for the ugly: Thanks to a frat spat at the end of the regular season, a black cloud hangs over the heads of 11 players found guilty of brawling. The news also varies in 2010. Thanks to graduation losses and the fraternity chaos, the WR corps and D-line is severely short-handed entering the 2010 season. The good news is QB Kirk Cousins, who started all 13 games in 2009 and ranked No. 25 in the nation in pass efficiency, is back. Let’s hope ugly stays home.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Northwestern (10/23)

MINNESOTA – *9 / 2
TEAM THEME: SATURDAY IN THE DARK
To paraphrase a line from Dennis Green, “The Gophers are who we thought they were” – a middle of the pack Big 10 team. After a terrific turnaround in 2008, a big 2009 season could have made HC Tim Brewster millions. However, an uneventful 6-7 year capped off by a bowl loss to Iowa State has the Gophers’ faithful feeling a little punky. With just two starters and no linemen back on defense, the Minneapolis natives may be best served to keep the TV off until Sunday. The biggest shoes to fill will be the loss of three LB’s that were all NFL combine attendees. While point production dropped for the third straight year under Brewster, Minnesota’s offense may suddenly be the strength of the team with nine starters back. Nine bowlers roll onto the 2010 slate but six visit the comfy confines of TCF Bank Stadium. Saturday looks like another yawner in the City of Lakes.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Northern Illinois (9/25)

NORTHWESTERN – 8 / 6
TEAM THEME: CURIOUS ‘CATS
Savoring their most successful stretch of football in school history, the Wildcats finished the decade with a 61-60 record. The winning record may come as a bit of a surprise… as should this little piece of bar trivia: in the last 15 years, only Ohio State and Michigan have won or shared more Big Ten titles than Northwestern’s three crowns. While HC Pat Fitzgerald won just five Big Ten contests in his first two years in Evanston, his Wildcats have posted five conference wins in each of the last two seasons. An offensive line that returns intact along with the entire linebacking crew should keep the ‘Cats prowling in 2010 – but career back-up Dan Persa will have to fill the void left by 2009 Big Ten passing leader Mike Kafka. Road trips to Penn State and Wisconsin may cost the ‘Cats a couple of lives, but another year without the Buckeyes on the slate could have this bunch feeling frisky.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Indiana (10/30)

OHIO STATE – *10 / 6
TEAM THEME: COVER UP
The combination of eight home games and a ferocious defense that ranks third nationally over the last six years (280 YPG), makes the Buckeyes serious title contenders in 2010. If he doesn’t cave under the pressure of being our cover boy, QB Terrelle Pryor should be a front-runner for the Heisman Trophy. After a mid-season loss at Purdue, Pryor took matters into his owns hands (and feet), leading the Buckeyes to a season-ending 6-game win streak, including a Rose Bowl win over Oregon. The junior has plenty of help on offense as nine starters return, including a backfield that HC Jim Tressel calls the deepest he’s had in his 10 years at Columbus. Ohio State’s biggest hurdles on its way to a BCS title tilt will be road games at Wisky and Iowa. Along, of course, with our aforementioned cover jinx. Just ask Big Ben, who graced – or should we say disgraced – last year’s edition.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Iowa (11/20)

PENN STATE – 7 / 5
TEAM THEME: AMAZING RACE
To those who contend Joe Pa is slipping, we say you need to tune into a reality show – real quick. Not only have the Lions posted back-to-back 11-win seasons, but the only team that they have failed to outgain over the last two regular seasons has been Ohio State, as Penn State is 22-2 ‘In The Stats’ during that span. A tough schedule, laced with eight bowlers and road trips to Alabama, Iowa and Ohio State figure to test those numbers in 2010. Replacing QB Daryll Clark may also test Paterno’s patience, though highly-recruited SO Kevin Newsome is poised to win the starting job. Linebacker U. returns only five starters on the defensive side of the ball but that unit is in its usual reloading, rather than rebuilding, phase. It’s another race against time for the 83-year old Paterno. Our money is on Joe.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Alabama (9/11)

PURDUE – 6 / 6
TEAM THEME: SIMPLY MARVE-ELOUS
For the second straight year, the Boilermakers lose a starting QB to graduation. Joey Elliott did an admirable job replacing Curtis Painter and now it’s Robert Marve’s show. The transfer from Miami Fla, who lost his starting job to Jacory Harris, will be front and under center as the Boilermakers look to avoid a third straight losing season. Despite a seven-loss campaign, there is ‘Hope’ in West Lafayette (read: Danny). Six of the seven losses in 2009 were to bowl teams and four were by seven or less points. The second-year head coach also saw his forces win four of their final six games, beating Ohio State and Michigan in the same season for only the third time in school history. A defense that lost its entire secondary will have to be addressed but with only three winning teams on this year’s ticket, it could be a ‘marvelous’ time to be a Boiler.
PLAY ON: vs. Minnesota (10/16)

WISCONSIN –*10 / 6
TEAM THEME: ALIVE AND KICKING
It could be argued that the majority of the Badgers wins last season came against teams that barely had a pulse. Thus it was strange to watch Wisconsin manhandle Miami in the Champs Sports Bowl last year. That’s because the Badgers’ three losses last year were to quality opposition. Ironically, they will face only three teams (two coming at home) in 2010 that enjoyed winning seasons last year – the same three that took them down in 2009. That leaves nine foes sporting losing ledgers and, behind 16 returning starters, Bret Bielema is obviously anxious to let the games begin. And kick this around, if you will… Bielema, who is 38-14 in his four seasons at Madison, has seen his team involved in 13 games that were decided by three or less points. He is 9-4 in those games, with wins in five of the last six. The holes are few and far between in Camp Randall Stadium.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Ohio State (10/16) – *KEY +6.5 pts or more

Happy New Year

To start football for 2010, the compelling game of the three is probably the least interesting in football terms. Today marks the end of the line for Bobby Bowden’s historic coaching career. He was as gracious in defeat as he was in victory and the game of college football takes a hit for losing such a great man. The best early game is LSU and Penn State in the Holiday Bowl with two schools synonymous with winning. The Big Ten Conference opened strong in the bowl season with Wisconsin victory; can Northwestern build on the momentum with their first postseason triumph in 62 years?


Outback Bowl
Auburn vs. Northwestern
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa
11:00E ESPN

Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since 1948, to break that trend it will need to beat an SEC team in one of the New Year’s Day conflicts. The Wildcats haven’t played on Jan. 1 since 1997and are underdogs to Auburn (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS) team, which won just two of its last seven games in 2009. Interestingly, the Outback underdog has covered the number the last five times the pointspread exceeded four points. Auburn offers a new approach as offensive team these days; however is 5-9 ATS as bowl chalk. The Tigers were 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS vs. other bowlers. Northwestern (5-6 ATS) won last three games both SU and ATS to finish at 8-4.

Reasons to wager – Don’t right off Northwestern in this New Year’s opener. QB Mike Kafka is an all-purpose performer and the Wildcats are well-suited for this role since they are 10-3 ATS as underdogs recently, with eight outright upsets. While Auburn’s offense saw dramatic improvement this season, the defense went backwards, allowing a SEC-high 26.9 points per game. Though the players change, coach Gene Chizik should remind his team, Northwestern has given 43.8 points a bowl in last six tries. The Tigers will look to establish runners Ben Tate and Onterio McCalebb. If they do, this opens up passing lanes for Chris Todd who threw 21 touchdowns with only six interceptions. The Auburn defense has to turnover the Wildcats since they are 2-9 ATS after a game where they forced one or less turnovers over the last two seasons. Sportsbook.com has Northwestern catching eight points with total of 54 and the Wildcats are 32-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, losing by 3.2 point per game.

3DW Line – Auburn by 7

Capitol One Bowl
LSU vs. Penn State
Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando
1:00E ABC

Penn State has gone 7-3 in bowl games since 1995, but two of the losses happened in Orlando. The Nittany Lions yielded just 11.8 points per game, en route to a 10-2 SU and 6-6 ATS record. LSU was 9-3 and 5-6-1 ATS, allowing just 16.0 points per game. The Tigers will also be looking to extend a run of overall success in bowl games, as they boast a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS record since 1995. Under head coach Les Miles, the Tigers are 15-6 ATS in games versus non-conference foes. Penn State was a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this year. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in L5 matchups.

Reasons to wager- Both of these teams are perfectly placed in Orlando, since neither could beat the superior teams in their conference and their best wins are ordinary to say the least. Penn State emerges as winner if they stop a pedestrian LSU offensive line. It appears they should, however the only comparable opponents Penn State faced were Iowa and Oho State and they shoved the ball down the Nittany Lions throat for a combined 391 rushing yards. Penn State is a mere 6-17 ATS away from Mt. Nittany vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points a game. LSU has lacked any sort of offensive consistency all year and doesn’t figure to find it against a solid Penn State defense. What the Tigers have to do is stop Lions offense and win field position battle and stick with the running game. Jordan Jefferson can hit six passes in a row and miss next six, get him in comfortable locations on the field for success. LSU is 12-1 ATS away from home after consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers.

3DW Line – Penn State by 4

Gator Bowl
West Virginia vs. Florida State
Municipal Stadium – Jacksonville
1:00E CBS

This will be Bobby Bowden’s last game on the sidelines for Florida State, as his team takes on West Virginia. Whether or not the Seminoles can make the game memorable for Bowden remains to be seen. With Florida State sporting a 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS mark, they shouldn’t be playing New Year’s Day, but TV ratings matter. Florida State owns perhaps the worst defensive unit of any bowl team, yielding 443.4 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. West Virginia (5-6 ATS) is 9-3 and has won four straight bowl games, with last loss coming to same opponent in this very game in 2005. The ACC is 7-2 ATS the previous nine encounters.

Reasons to wager- Not sure if there are exceptional reasons to tune in and place money on this Gator Bowl. Florida State’s flaws were spotted early, allowing almost 400 passing yards to Miami and having to come from behind in the fourth quarter to hold off Jacksonville State. Finishing second in too many recruiting battles, shows the Seminoles record is well-deserved. On offense, E.J. Manuel has stepped in for injured Christian Ponder, with mixed results. Like most freshmen quarterbacks, he was poised when he had time, but got in a hurry when pressured and was less selective in the red zone. The Noles are 29-11 ATS after two or more consecutive spread. Betting on old smiley face from West Virginia can be hazardous to one’s health and wagering account. West Virginia is 2.5-point favorite with total of 60 and coach Bill Stewart is 6-13 ATS as the favorite wearing the lead head set. The Mountaineers win this game with ease if QB Jarrett Brown returns to his pre-concussion form from October. West Virginia has too many speedy players to account for and if Brown is close to 100 percent clarity with this much time off, no reason they don’t knock off Florida State, except for the Stewart factor.

3DW Line – West Virginia by 4

Penn State and Virginia get things started

This is the opening matchup of the Big Ten-ACC Challenge and both teams look to build on good shooting victories. Off last season’s NIT championship, Penn State coach Ed DeChellis is searching for buckets this season. He knows what to expect out of guard Talor Battle, but not quite sure what to expect from everyone else. Chris Babb and Jeff Brooks have responded well early, and Andrew Jones continues to make good choices in terms of shot selection.

The Nittany Lions (4-2, 2-3 ATS) ticked the twine with great frequency, shooting 63.8 percent in 87-75 win over Sacred Heart in last contest, though failed to cover as 16.5-point home favorites. Penn State is 6-0 ATS in true road non-conference games.

First year coach Tony Bennett has half his team in order at Virginia (4-2, 2-2 ATS), the other aspect will take time and effort. The Cavaliers have all five starters from last season and eight of nine top scorers that accounted for 91 percent of offense. Great, super, wonderful, except coach Bennett is defensive-minded coach and really wants the effort on that end of the floor.

Virginia defeated Cleveland State 76-65 the last time out as 3.5-point favorites, shooting 52.8 percent. Bennett had to be pleased with the effort, but not the defense, which allowed a season-high 55.3 percent. Thus far the Cavaliers have seen three opponents shoot 47.5 or better and three other teams convert less than 39 percent from the field. Virginia is 11-24 ATS after allowing opposing team 55 percent or higher shooting percentage.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Cavaliers as 5.5-point favorites and they are only 13-16 ATS on their home floor the last 2+ years and 4-10 ATS in non-conference action of late. Penn State is not a comforting choice either with 7-17-1 spread record as an underdog of 6.5-points or less.
The total appears to be a tough call with the Nittany Lions 8-1 OVER against the ACC and Virginia 7-0 UNDER after covering the spread.

The ACC has never lost this event in its 10 years and ESPN2 will have the coverage starting at 7:00 Eastern. Virginia is 5-4 SU with Penn State 3-5 SU in the years they played.

Saturday's Hot Plate

We’ve been in a slump all week, time to bounce out of it and I believe we have the ammo to do so. We’ll start in the Big Ten with an 85.7 percent Best System. That is followed by a perfect reverse trend at 0-15. Though I actually like the team to win and cover, I’m off it because of the strong angle. Paul Buck has not one but two Free Plays today. Good Luck

New Poll Question about announcers at the bottom of page.

What I thought yesterday – It drives me crazy when people gloat about be right on a game they were incredibly fortunate to win. Thursday night I had a push with East Carolina and I got emails from people who had West Virginia at -12.5, telling me what a sap I was for having ECU. I guess I am, since I had the correct side for 58 minutes and only a bad bounce that led to interception cost me the cover. You will always find me thanking my lucky stars when I receive luck like that, not bragging because of unusual fortune.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON a home team like MEECHIGAN off a double digit upset loss as a road favorite of six more, with a winning record on the season. Since 2000, this system is 24-4 ATS, 85.7 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) Saw this earlier this year and still can’t believe it. Penn State is 0-15 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game since 1992.

Free Football Pick -3) Paul Buck is having an exceptional season in college football with 62-39 record (61.3 percent) on all sides and totals. He won’t reveal his top pick (it’s for sale here) but his next two choices are UCLA and N.C. State.

We have a pair of 4* plays (out of 5) that are a Guaranteed Package in college football today. Be a HUGE Winner today!

The Platinum Sheet is stuffed with winning information and picks.

College Football Watch and Win Action

It’s crunch in college football. Conference titles are up for grabs as calendar rolls into the first weekend of November. Upsets are not only likely, they are expected. Does LSU have the muscle to knock off Alabama? Will Ohio State win at Penn State to set up bigger Big Ten battle with Iowa next? If Stanford is going to upset Oregon, they couldn’t ask for better setup. Connecticut and Nebraska have had tumultuous seasons for different reasons; do they have one big game left in them? Can Tulsa rise from three-game losing streak and mess with Houston’s dreams? Answers forthcoming. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

LSU (+7.5, 40) at Alabama 3:30E CBS

Sage SEC watchers knew, all the preseason talk of Ole Miss being an upstart in the West Division was bunk, the winner was going to come down to who wins this matchup. For a team that squeaked by Mississippi State (30-26) and Georgia 20-13) on the road and did nothing offensively against top-ranked Florida in falling 13-3, the Tigers (7-1, 4-3 ATS) are receiving a lot of love. There are a number of reasons as to why. If LSU wins out, they will be 11-1 and have rematch with Gators in SEC title tilt. Talent is not an issue for Les Miles club, desire to execute is the conundrum. Besides, it’s more fun to overlook Alabama and Mississippi games are on the road. The Bayou Tigers are 2-6-2 ATS since 2004 on the road after two or more home games.

With a week off, Alabama (5-3 ATS) is expected to be refreshed and continue journey towards showdown with Florida. That means quarterback Greg McElroy has to play like he did in the first five games, not the last three. The Crimson Tide is on unfortunate roll of 11 field goals and one offensive touchdown in the last three SEC contests. Thanks to Mt. Cody (Terrence Cody) single-handedly moving Tennessee linemen backwards twice, Bama is 8-0 for a second straight year. All the blame shouldn’t fall on McElroy, as the offensive line could makes everything easier if sophomore RB Mark Ingram had a few more lanes to run thru. Alabama is 9-1 ATS off two home non-covers where the team won as a favorite.

Have mentioned before the SEC is stuffed with quirky rivalries and this is another that is a head scratcher. The visiting team is 10-1-2 against the spread in the series. Given the preceding number, it would figure close contests right, not a chance with average victory margin of 14 points during this span. The Tide is after first back-to-back covers since 1995-96.

3DW Line – Alabama by 10

Ohio State (+5, 39) at Penn State 3:30E ABC/ESPN2

With Iowa having won last week, this Big Ten battle is elimination game for all practical purposes. Ohio State (7-2 SU& ATS) and Penn State (8-1, 5-4 ATS) both have a conference loss, though the Buckeyes does hold one edge since they face the Hawkeyes at home next week. Ohio State’s chances of success will fall on the young shoulders of Terrelle Pryor, who has played his best against the weaker teams (Purdue not included) and strained taking on better competition with stronger defenses. It does help when the defense plays up to capabilities and creates a turnover or three, giving the Buckeyes momentum and short field. Ohio State is 12-1 ATS playing teams with .666 or higher win percentage.

Penn State needs help in order to be Big Ten champions, having lost to Iowa earlier in the season. The first step is knocking off Oho State, who would presumably be angry and want to topple Iowa from the ranks of the unbeaten. Beyond that, the Nittany Lions can only hope the Hawkeyes lose. Since falling to Iowa, Penn State has been like an approaching November storm, gathering momentum and raining down on opponents. Quarterback Daryll Clark is playing at highest level of the season, connecting with big-play threat wide receiver Derek Moye, which has opened up the rest of the field for other pass catchers. Running back Evan Royster has been patient in picking his spots behind an improving offensive line. Though the non-conference schedule lacked any punch, the Nittany Lions defense has only surrendered more than 17 points once. Penn State is 6-0 ATS after consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better over the last two seasons.

After the home team had covered nine in a row in this series, the visiting club has covered two in a row. Here’s an absolutely insane angle, The Jo Pa’s are 0-15 ATS vs. defensive teams who allow 12 or less points a game. (Iowa was one such team at the time)

3DW Line – Penn State by 6.5

Oregon (-7, 48.5) at Stanford 3:30E FSN

This is the absolute perfect setup for Stanford (5-3 SU&ATS) to pull the upset in Pac-10 play. The Cardinal is off a home game vanquishing of Arizona State and enjoyed a bye week to get healthy in preparation for Oregon, who is in first place all alone in the conference. The Ducks are off exhilarating USC home triumph and have to gather themselves quickly for the most physical team in the Pac-10. The Stanford game plan will be to bludgeon Oregon with RB Toby Gerhart and if successful, this sets up play-action passes for redshirt freshman QB Andrew Luck. Gerhart’s pounding style is like body blows and later in a game; tackler’s might be less inclined to take punishment. Luck has shown ability to complete passes all over the field and has deft touch on in-and-out fade routes. Stanford is 12-5 ATS against Top 10 teams.

Oregon’s offense attracts a great deal of attention and deservedly so, but what has made this team special is a Top 20 team defense that forces a large number of negative plays. The Ducks (7-1, 6-2 ATS) have powerful players in the defensive line that have excellent quickness and speed throughout the entire defense to limit big plays. QB Jeremiah Masoli makes the run-based spread option work and his throwing accuracy has been distinguished for most of the season. Freshman LaMichael James has been stabilizing spoke in the wheel to make Oregon’s run offense work, with ability to make tackler’s miss with his cutting ability. The Ducks are 10-2 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more in consecutive contests.

Oregon has captured the Cardinal, winning eight of last nine, with 7-2 ATS mark. The Ducks have plenty to quack about with 6-1 ATS record at Stanford. Coach Jim Harbaugh’s team is 12-1 ATS since Oregon’s last visit to Stanford Stadium, including 11 straight covers.

3DW Line – Oregon by 4.5

Houston (-1.5, 67.5) at Tulsa 7:30E CBSC

Though both Houston and Tulsa lost to UTEP, this is momentous matchup in the Conference USA West Division. The best the loser can likely hope for is minor bowl bid, with the winner still in contention to capture division crown. The Cougars (7-1, 6-1 ATS) are the most talented team in the league and they have wins over Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Mississippi State to prove it. Coach Kevin Sumlin has done exceptional work in keeping Houston focused week to week and QB Case Keenum is precise dart thrower leading the Cougs attack. The defense has picked up lately, forcing more turnovers and more three and outs. Houston is 0-7 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons.

Besides trying to make third consecutive appearance in C-USA championship game, Tulsa (4-4, 4-3 ATS) also has another motive, revenge. Last season, after suffering first loss of year at Arkansas 30-23, a down Golden Hurricane team at 8-1, ran into a hot Houston club, who smoked them 70-30. That left a raw mark on the returning Tulsa players and guaranteed coach Todd Graham has had the number 70 and box score’s strategically displayed for a constant reminder all week. The Tulsa offensive line must have standup effort as quarterback G.J. Kinne has seen more pressure in the pocket against more advanced competition. Keeping focus shouldn’t be an issue, since this is the first of three challenging league conflicts with East Carolina and at Southern Miss on tap. Tulsa has to move the pigskin and is 9-2 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play.

These teams have only been together in this conference four years, with Houston having 3-1 SU and ATS edge. Dating back further, the underdog is 5-1 ATS. Tough to figure total, with Cougars 8-0 OVER off a home win and Tulsa 7-0-1 UNDER in 2009.

3DW Line – Houston by 5

Connecticut (+17, 51.5) at Cincinnati 8:00 E ABC/GP

Cincinnati’s unexpected odyssey continues when they host a caustic Connecticut club. The Bearcats stand at 8-0 and 6-2 ATS after smashing Syracuse 28-7 and can write their ticket if they keep winning. Before being injured, quarterback Tony Pike was having marvelous campaign, with his name being tossed around in Heisman conversations. His injury ended that talk and he hopes to be ready starting this week for season-ending push. In his place backup Zach Collaros has filled in magnificently. In spite of one defensive starter returning and changing schemes to 3-4 defense, the athletes that were in waiting have been tremendous, with Cincy among the leaders in the country for tackles for loss. Color these Cats successful with 14-4 ATS Big East record under coach Brian Kelly.

Ask any Big East coach, their least favorite opponent is Connecticut (4-4). The Huskies may lack in the talent department compared to other teams, but they will earn the highest marks in preparation under coach Randy Edsall and almost never relent. This year’s team has made the one or two critical mistakes in suffering four losses (7-1 ATS). The offense is playing more consistent and UConn has more playmakers at the skill positions than ever before. One staple missing is the typical Huskies defense, which has surrendered over 26 points per game in league action. All season against better competition, Connecticut has struggled on third down defense. These Huskies are 5-12 as conference underdogs.

Cincinnati was clobbered at Connecticut 40-16 as three-point favorites last season and would relish the opportunity for payback. The home team is 3-1 SU and ATS, with the underdog having covered three of four since the Bearcats joined the Big East. Cincy is 7-0 ATS off two straight wins by 17 or more points since 2007.

3DW Line – Cincinnati by 11

Oklahoma (-4.5, 42.5) at Nebraska 8:00E ABC/GP

Remember when this contest used to be one of the premier games each and every year? Since the formulation of the Big 12 in 1996, these former intense competitors now meet every three years, playing home and away. Last season, Oklahoma (5-3, 3-4-1 ATS) blasted Nebraska 62-28 as 21-point home favorites. The Cornhuskers are the host this time around and are thankful for the opportunity the Sooners provided, knocking off Kansas State last week 42-30. The last two games in Lincoln have been disastrous for Nebraska (5-3 SU&ATS), tripping up against Texas Tech 31-10 and committing a school-record eight turnovers in 9-7 loss to Iowa State, including four inside the Cyclones five-yard line. Quarterback Zac Lee has not played well versus stiffer completion and lost his job to Cody Green. The freshman will have to go against dauntless Oklahoma defense. The Huskers 6-1 ATS as conference home underdogs.

Oklahoma has no major bowl bid in its future, but that won’t stop a Bob Stoops team from playing hard and giving its all. With the team officially under the direction of signal caller Landry Jones, it’s about moving the chains and finding a rhythm and creating snowball effect. Jones hits a couple of passes and a running back rips off 12-yard run, suddenly the Sooners are in business and rolling. After a few misgivings about the defense’s desire to dominate, they have answered every question since loss to Miami. Oklahoma might not win the Big 12 South; nonetheless they will try to make sure Texas knows they better not screw up. The Sooners are 16-1 and 12-5 ATS vs. the Big 12 North the last five years.

In the last six meetings, the Sooners are 5-1 and 4-2 ATS. The home team is 9-5 ATS dating back 20 years.

3DW Line – Oklahoma by 11

Top Saturday College Football Tilts

What a great day! Meaningful college football games from coast to coast all day long. South Florida needs the upset in Western Pennsylvania to stay in Big East race. Big Ten contenders will be in action with both state of Michigan teams trying to defeat fellow members ahead of them in the standings. After last week’s bruising Red River Rivalry, both Texas and Oklahoma venture out on the Big 12 road. It’s the first of three important Mountain West matchups, this one in Provo. Tennessee and Alabama have long history of unusual outcomes, upset in the making? Finally, USC seeks revenge for its lone loss from 2008 playing host to a rested Oregon State squad. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com

South Florida (+6.5, 48.5) at Pittsburgh 12:00E BE Network/GP

South Florida (5-1, 2-2 ATS) emerges with its first loss after being defeated by Cincinnati 38-17. With a few extra days to prepare, the Bulls get ready for another Big East bash at Pittsburgh. Surprisingly, South Florida’s offense has kept pace with redshirt freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels, taking over for the injured Matt Grothe. Daniels style compliments Grothe’s, being able to run and throw the pigskin effectively. USF is second in the Big East in scoring (33.7) and third in total offense. The Bulls defense has been stingy all year in allowing 286 yards per game (18th nationally) and has been one of the best in the conference in allowing seven red zone touchdowns. The Bulls are just 2-6 ATS in road sandwich contest.

Pittsburgh (6-1, 4-2 ATS) has a bit more rest than normal also, after handling Rutgers 24-17 on the road. The Panthers have turned into a fine-tuned offensive machine, able to gobble up vast amounts of real estate, playing extremely physical football. On occasion, Pitt’s production in scoring points falls short, which could be a conundrum against a fine defense like South Florida. Pittsburgh can control the line of scrimmage in this contest with its sturdy front seven, but has to be careful of the deep ball against the Bulls. Pittsburgh is 2-7 ATS against teams with .600 record or better.

This is just the seventh meeting between these two schools and the home team is 2-4 SU and ATS. Pitt will look to establish the run and are 6-2 ATS before a bye. South Florida’s Top 10 ranking was ruined by Pittsburgh last season 26-21 and they will seek revenge.

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 8.5

Penn State (-4.5, 47.5) at Michigan 3:30E ABC/ESPN

The Nittany Lions (6-1, 3-4 ATS) will attempt to stay in the Big Ten hunt when they visit Ann Arbor. Penn State quarterback Daryll Clark has rebounded nicely from his career-worst game against Iowa in Penn State’s lone defeat with a trio of fine performances. “Daryll’s just a great leader. He doesn’t let things like that bother him,” wide receiver Brett Brackett said. It will be the defense that will have to play at their best to slow down Michigan attack. The Wolverines multiple offense has moved the ball on everyone and this will be the most lethal attack Penn State have seen to date. Penn State is 0-6 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 14 points or more over the last three seasons.

Michigan (5-2, 4-2 ATS) should have a great deal of confidence playing in the Big House with 5-0 and 3-1 ATS record. The Wolverines freshman quarterbacks have been much more poised at home. Ball security will be imperative against an opportunistic opponent like Penn State, meaning no forced throws. Coach Rich Rodriguez would prefer to depend on his offensive line and let RB Brandon Minor pound away, since they are averaging 5.4 yards per carry. The Wolverines defense has been spotty all season (7th in Big Ten), showing moments of greatness and futility within the same quarter. Michigan is 11-6 ATS as single digit Big Tem home underdog.

The team with the funny helmets has dominated this series, winning nine in a row before falling 46-17 last year at State College. The Wolverines are 7-3 ATS in those 10 meetings and has knocked them off five times when Penn State was in the Top 25.

3DW Line – Penn State by 4

Oklahoma (-8, 55.5) at Kansas 3:30E ABC/GP

The seventh game of the Kansas schedule will provide an indication of which way the season might go for the Jayhawks. Kansas (5-1, 2-3 ATS) has been involved in a few shootouts this campaign and have been bailed out most of the time by senior quarterback Todd Reesing. The defense has been especially vulnerable to the pass (95th), surrendering over 245 yards per game and plagued by poor tackling all season. With QB Sam Bradford out and the Sooners having punishing running game, the Mangino’s can’t expect Reesing to save them against Oklahoma’s seventh rated defense. Kansas is 7-12 ATS a Big 12 home underdog since 2000.

These are riveting times in Norman, with Oklahoma at 3-3 and looking at a second non-BCS bowl bid in eight years. Oklahoma pass receivers are not helping whoever is throwing the ball for the Sooners (2-3-1 ATS), with too many dropped balls occurring. The offensive line needs to play with more grit inside the opponents’ 20-yard line and start moving more bodies that lead to touchdowns. Reesing in a handful, thus continual pressure up front is a necessity. The Sooners are 12-1 and 8-5 ATS after Red River Rivalry.

Last year’s game produced 75 points and but this contest doesn’t figure to approach that number. Kansas is 8-15 ATS as home dog the last nine years; however watch the line since they are 5-0 ATS when receiving eight or loss points with revenge. Coach Mangino was on the Bob Stoops staff prior to taking Kansas job. Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS following a straight up loss in the regular season.

3DW Line – Oklahoma by 4.5

Tennessee (+13, 43) at Alabama 3:30E CBS

Tennessee may only be 3-3 SU and ATS; nevertheless signs of improvement are everywhere. In the Volunteers three losses, they have a turnover margin of -4, showing they could have closed the gap in those games which were lost by a total of 18 points. The 45-19 spanking of Georgia was huge confidence booster, outgaining the Bulldogs 472-243, with Jonathan Crompton looking like presentable BCS signal caller. Coach Lane Kiffin’s father Monte, has worked with a defense that has faced numerous injuries, yet led by All-American safety Eric Berry, the Vols have conceded just 220 yards against offenses averaging 374 yards per game. Tennessee is 23-8 ATS in road games in weeks five through nine the last 16 years.

Nick Saban has won more than 69 percent of the game he has coached at the collegiate level and these days that number just continues to rise. Saban isn’t much interested in being pals with the alumni, his message is let him win football games and everyone “should” be happy. Saban has a wrecking crew on defense, in the Top 10 of every important category. They vitiate opponents and are not only fast, the front seven has larger bodies more associated with the fellas that play on Sunday. The Crimson Tide (7-0, 5-2 ATS) is rolling with 12-4 ATS record after two or more consecutive SU victories.

The SEC is loaded with quirky rivalries and this is one of them. Dating back to 1992, the visitor is 15-2 ATS. Alabama has covered three in a row and last year was the first time in five seasons the favorite won and covered.

3DW Line – Alabama by 13

Iowa (+1.5, 42) at Michigan State 7:00E BTN

Iowa kept their unbeaten season intact at Wisconsin and with 7-0 start for the first time since 1985 and the Hawkeyes will play a second consecutive road game, this time in East Lansing. The Iowa (4-2 ATS) offense still sputters, as QB Ricky Stanzi makes enough foolish plays to keep the opposition in games and the offensive line been unsettled with injuries, causing consistency problems. After a fast start, the defense had shown cracks and survived lately on making big plays. The Hawkeyes defense has to rise to occasion and they are 18-6 ATS in road games when they allow 300 to 350 total yards.

After a lumbering 1-3 season start, Michigan State (4-3, 3-3 ATS) could really get themselves back into Big Ten title contention with triumph over Iowa. The Spartans have stabilized defensively in winning their last three Big Ten battles, getting a better pass rush and finding the right combination the secondary after early season shuffling. On offense, the always burly Michigan State offensive line has been moving people off the line of scrimmage and whatever healthy running back has run the ball effectively. Both quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol have run the offense capably for Sparty to average 29.3 points per game. The Spartans are 13-5 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival.

The home team has won nine straight (6-3 ATS), but for the most part these teams have been evenly matched, as the last six meetings have seen the line be seven points or less. This is why the underdog is 15-4 against the number.

3DW Line – Iowa by 1.5

TCU (-2.5, 52) at BYU 7:30E Versus

If you think you have seen this act before, well you have as TCU, BYU and Utah are all in contention for another Mountain West title. The first major matchup takes place in Provo. BYU (6-1, 3-4 ATS) has handled last four opponents with relative ease since Florida State mishap, which is all the more painful with how the Seminoles have played since. The Cougars running game has hit another gear the last month averaging over 200 yards per game. They will be confronted by angry Horned Frogs who hold opposing teams under 82 yards per contest on the ground. QB Max Hall is the catalyst to exceptional passing that totals 9.6 yards per pass attempt. BYU doesn’t allow backers to feel real comfortable with 1-9 ATS mark after playing a MWC contest over the last two years.

Visiting TCU doesn’t change much under coach Gary Patterson. They have a terrific front four that rushes the passer with abandon; linebackers that stuff the run (8th nationally) and most years an above average secondary. On offense, roughly 60 percent or more plays involve the run and the passing game features either short out-routes and taking deep shots. The Horned Frogs stuffed Colorado State last week 44-6 and are 7-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game.

TCU spoiled BYU’s perfect season a year ago 32-7 at home, holding the Cougars to season-low 297 yards. BYU will look to return the favor on their gridiron and is 12-5 ATS before a bye week. Revenge aside, the visiting team is 5-2 ATS in this encounter.

3DW Line – BYU by 1

Texas (-13, 49.5) at Missouri 8:00E ABC/GP

After deposing of Oklahoma 16-13, the Texas Longhorns (6-0, 1-4-1 ATS) are uncanny 12-0 SU in next game and have covered the spread in nine of last 10. This is the first of two prickly road games for Texas, moving on to Oklahoma State next. Coach Mack Brown is still seeking receiver to compliment wide receiver Jordan Shipley. The running game hasn’t been all that productive against better competition (107.6 YPG). Because of injuries, inexperience and ineffectiveness of the offensive line, Colt McCoy has been forced to run similar to last season. The Horns defense has shut the door to prevent opponents from starting fast or locked them down after they owned brief lead. They rank 5th in the country in total defense and have forced 19 turnovers this season.

Sporting a 0-2 record in the Big 12, Missouri coach Gary Pinkel is being scrutinized in the blogging community for not changing his run offense, which is 10th in the Big 12. “We want to run the football better,” Pinkel said. “But we’re not going to change how we run the ball.” Most complaints have been about the lack of quick hitting plays and miniscule 3.8 yards per carry. The defense will have to rise to the challenge again and try and corral a quality colt in Mr. McCoy. Missouri (4-2, 3-3 ATS) is just 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58 percent or better.

Since 1916, Missouri is 1-14 vs. Texas with 5-6 ATS mark. The Longhorns are 11-3-1 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up wins, but 6-18 ATS on the road after five or more consecutive victories.

3DW Line – Texas by 10.5

Oregon State (+20.5, 52) at USC 8:00E ABC/GP

As if USC needs any more incentive after Notre Dame 34-27 triumph, in comes Oregon State, who hung the only “L” on the Trojans last season. Last year’s 27-21 loss as 25-point favorites was the lone blemish on USC card and they can’t afford another if they want to keep Pac-10 and national championship hopes alive. Pete Carroll’s offensive is beginning to churn, with Matt Barkley more comfortable, which has opened up the playbook and made the offense something other than vanilla. Defensively, USC (5-1, 2-4 ATS) is choking opposing team’s offenses, yielding just six touchdowns this season. With safety Taylor Mays preventing anything deep and a sack-happy front four, the Men of Troy are a load. USC is 54-13 ATS when they outgain their opponents by two or more yards play.

Oregon State is 4-2 (2-3 ATS) and knows what kind of situation they are heading into. The Beavers are off a bye week and have been busy. Coach Mike Riley after losing home games to Cincinnati and Arizona tried to change his club’s focus. Riley explained, “…if you can live in the moment and get ready for one game at a time,” much can be accomplished. After defeating Arizona State and Stanford, Oregon State has been tweaking the offense and refining things they do well. James Rodgers leads the Pac-10 in all-purpose yards and OSU coaches have to feed him the ball to give offense a chance. The Beavers are 11-3 ATS off a Pac-10 win.

Oregon State is 3-31 SU in last four decades vs USC, but has two upsets in last three years. The favorite is 3-6 ATS since 1999.

3DW Line – USC by 12.5

It pays to have a great defense in college football

Dating back to Perry Mason and fast-forwarding to Denny Crane of Boston Legal, it’s always been an asset to have a good defense. That has also been the case in winning college football games, since we have always heard the mantra, “defense wins championships”. The question is does a top notch defense help the sports bettor win money?

Without a doubt, it is part of the winning portfolio and in many ways overlooked more than it should be by the average bettor. It’s been proven that a football game is broken down into three parts, with seven pieces within it. The breakdown is three on offense, three on defense and one for special teams. Great defensive teams provide a quandary of sorts for oddsmakers, compared to terrific offensive teams.

When the game starts, both teams fundamental goal is to score points and prevent the opposition from doing so, not exactly SportsCenter highlight material. The advantage an offense has there is no limit to the number of points they can score based on possessions or other areas like defensive touchdowns for scores and special teams finding ways to light the scoreboard. Teams with superior defenses cannot impact the score per se in the same manner since in football and all other major team sports; you can’t do better than zero.

Oddsmakers have the ability from public perception to add points to certain teams, especially when the team has offense that turn numbers like Vanna White changes letters. Teams that play tremendous defense don’t have the same appeal to sports bettors, unless they have potent offense. The other problem with great defense is they could pitch a shutout, but if their quarterback decides he likes throwing the pigskin to the other team as much as his own players, a 13-0 victory as a two-touchdown favorite will subtract from wagering account.

What should the sports bettor look for in a great defense? Like every lawyer, first you have to understand the laws. It rather simple to understand that if prevent the other team from scoring, your chances of winning are dramatically increased. You might be saying to yourself, Doug, I don’t need to read this article to know that. And for the most part I’d agree with except for the fact that college football generates billions of dollars, as does the wagering industry on football, yet the game in its most basic form is simply blocking and tackling. Do we know from week to week who is going to do that the best? I digress.

Currently, familiar names like Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, USC, Penn State and Ohio State are among the leaders in fewest points allowed. Two teams that are also among the top group are South Florida and Nebraska. At this juncture, it might be wise to be mildly skeptical about these two squads, as the only legitimate team USF faced was Florida State, though they did hold them to seven points. Let’s see how they do against Cincinnati and at Pittsburgh before we go all in on the Bulls. Nebraska has the right coach in Bo Pelini for defense, nevertheless, three home games against Sun Belt teams is not a good barometer.

Total defense is another good method to follow, but don’t buy in just yet. Teams like N.C. State, Connecticut and Arizona State dot this category. Each has had their turn against meager competition and done a fairly good job against comparable teams. Waiting it out another week won’t hurt to start building portfolio on these squads. Otherwise, stick with proven teams that restrict offenses.

Moving ahead, two other specific categories reflect a truer strength in this reporter’s often less than humble opinion, while still taking scheduling into consideration.

The YPPT or yards per point index is a wonderful gauge of defensive strength. This is based on the number of points the opposing team scores per 100 yards. Why this is superior to “points allowed” for example, take a look at this in-game situation. Say the Alabama offense is turnover-prone one day as six-point road favorites. They have three fumbles and interceptions in their territory and their opponent cashes them in for 17 points, gaining 80 total yards. The entire rest of the contest, Bama’s opposition moves the ball for just another 120 total yards and no points. The Crimson Tide’s offense goes on to score 24 points and wins 24-17, covering the spread. In just looking at points surrendered, it looks like the Crimson Tide’s opponent that day did fairly well against them, yet in fact they held them in-check except for their own miscues and ended up with good day based statistics. In reviewing these numbers, the Sooners, Gators and Trojans are all camped out here, but others maybe not on everyone’s radar appear. Iowa proved just how strong they are defensively in shutting down Penn State. Ole Miss is ranked sixth in the category and was supposed to have strong offensive team; however it has been the defense that has carried them. If quarterback Jevan Snead comes around, the Rebels could roll when it comes to covering spreads.

The best situation to wager on a quality defensive club is when they are underdog. The Hawkeyes win at Penn State was ideal way to consider for wager. Their defense was able to absorb quick blow by the Nittany Lions and gradually took over the game, rendering the Jo Pa’s with no working options once they trailed in the game. Stellar defensive squads catching points are always worth a look.

The final area to examine is yards per play (YPP) allowed. This speaks to the constant domination of a defense. Any team allowing 4.1 yards per play or less is going to be difficult to sustain a drive against. Most teams will average about 12 possessions per contest and roughly have to travel 60-70 yards to score touchdowns. To beat a controlling defensive team like this (turnovers the unknown variable), an offense would have to put together three separate drives of 13 or more plays to score three touchdowns to give themselves an opportunity to win. Can it be done, of course it can, but betting on it consistently is like playing a six-team parlay weekly, expecting to win.

Not to be redundant, but teams coached by Bob Stoops, Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, Mack Brown and Nick Saban are listed again, with a few you might not have thought of. North Carolina, Oregon, TCU and Mississippi have all played representative slates and have held opposing offensives to low numbers on yardage manufactured per play.

In the end, if you are going to have to take on Law and Order, you would want to have Alan Shore of Crane, Pool and Schmidt, backing you up with his slick defensive moves to make you a winner.

Looking ahead in rearview mirror in college football

The world is an amazingly fickle place. When you are on the rise, everybody wants to be your friend. Once you reach the top of the summit, you are revered, honored and respected. Act a little pretentious and take a calculated risk that backfires and people will turn on you faster than an elected official talking bipartisanship.

That’s what seems to being happening to Urban Meyer at Florida, after the franchise, Tim Tebow, was blown up and suffered concussion at Kentucky. The media has decided to crush Meyer for having Tebow in a game that was 31-7 and the Wildcats showing no inclination of being any closer. Of course if the left side of the Florida line blocks and doesn’t expose “Superman” to big hit or Tebow’s own teammate’s knee doesn’t happen to be there to cause the trauma, all of this not a national sports story.

Like any good coach, Meyer had again seen a sluggish second half offense and undoubtedly wanted to give his first-teamers a chance to work out rough spots, for the eventually of actually having to play a full 60 minute game (see Penn State). Take off the 20-20 after-the-fact glasses and it was nothing more than bad luck Tebow was hurt. Besides let’s be honest, most of these scribes and talking heads love to see their names in more read areas to enhance reputation, than Tebow’s actual health.

For as many years as Joe Paterno has coached at Penn State, he as much as anyone should know playing bad opponents will improve team’s record; however will not prepare a team for eventual tough opposition. Iowa’s superior mental toughness (down 10-0 on the road) and more physical style started to take command in the second quarter and the Nittany Lions had no point of reference to turn the tide. StatFox had an angle that I’d never seen before and it rang true again. Penn State still might go on a win a beleaguered Big Ten, but they are 0-15 ATS against teams that hold opposing teams to 12 or fewer points.

California showed the courage of the “cowardly lion” from the Wizard of Oz at Oregon. Forget all the nonsense of look ahead to USC or Oregon just had hot day, these Bears by all appearances invoked the “Q” word and could have used someone like former Duck LeGarrette Blount, because at least he cared about losing. The type of loss Cal suffered (524 to 207 total yards) is hard to wash off and they are 3-7 ATS after Oregon. These Bears will have to hope there is no place like home against the Trojans.

One person and team that showed intestinal fortitude was Jimmy Clausen and Notre Dame. Starting Friday, reports were starting to emerge Clausen wasn’t nearly as good to go as advertised. Just minutes before the game, backup QB Dayne Crist was caught on camera warming up, which was a strong indicator Clausen wasn’t near 100 percent. The junior Irish signal caller was laboring with mechanics and Charlie Weis sent in a very effective package with Crist and Golden Tate in building 17-7 lead. Purdue did determine Notre Dame wasn’t going to really test them thru the air and shutoff the Irish offense and took the lead 21-17 with just over 3:30 minutes to play. Clausen strapped on the helmet, encouraged his team that they had to execute and he would take of the rest no matter if he was throwing on one foot. Clausen and the Irish showed grit in engineering game winning drive and were helped by highly questionable Purdue timeout with Notre Dame scrambling on third and goal. Are the Irish a great team or a good bet? Neither seems to be the case, but they don’t have another true road game until Nov. 14 (Washington State in San Antonio on Oct.31) and the way the first month has played out, it’s about winning and gathering styles points later.

Conference USA has a bevy of unfortunate teams, but Southern Miss and Houston are players. The Eagles pushed unbeaten Kansas to the limit at their place. Southern Miss was tied at 28 heading into fourth quarter as 11.5-point underdogs and lost by a touchdown. The stats proved how competitive the Eagles were, outgained just 433-395. They have good running game with Damion Fletcher and QB Austin Davis can chuck it around to big, strong wide receivers. They will have two difficult road trips to Houston and East Carolina, nonetheless, will be capable of winning both.

C-USA finally has respectable BCS-crasher somebody will talk about. Tulsa was 7-0 last year, but was thought of as nice story, not legit BCS material. Houston is 3-0, with a pair of Big 12 conquests. The spine-tingling comeback over Texas Tech before a record crowd at Houston has the Cougs in the Top 25 and BCS schools potentially looking for a new coach reading up on coach Kevin Sumlin. If the Cougars could conquer Mississippi State on the road in under two weeks, that leaves Southern Miss and at Tulsa as remaining visible road blocks.

Quick hits – The combination of Adam Webber and Eric Decker signifies that Minnesota has play on potential against Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State in the coming weeks. –Alabama is the most impressive team in the country and it is going to be nearly impossible to bet against them even as oddsmakers load the points on their opponents the next month. - So much for Virginia Tech not being a considerable factor in the ACC, after making Miami look like Duke in 31-7 thrashing. It will be interesting to see what the Hurricanes have left in the tank for Oklahoma this week as almost a touchdown home underdog. – The Ron Zook era might be coming to a close in Illinois. It won’t happen this year, but a lifeless Illinois team’s best performance was woofing at Ohio State BEFORE the game. Juice Williams never improved after Rose Bowl season. The Zookers are 15-32 SU if you take out FCS games in his tenure and might be favored just three more times this season.

Let's have a Scintillating Saturday

When we last did this on Thursday, we picked up our third straight 2-1 day. Let’s hope it’s that or more starting with a Top Trend that is 14-0 against and you would NEVER guess the team. The Best System is 28-6 ATS in non-conference action and Sal has what he believes is another winner at 3Daily Winners. Good Luck

What I thought today – I just can’t stand when I’m already to back a certain team all week in football and then I find totally contrary information. I still might play Oregon State, but for a lot less than I was going to. God ^@#*&)@)

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like Bowling Green- after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored. Since 1999, this system is 28-6, 82.4 percent against the spread.

Free Football Trend -2) This is a crazy trend I never recall seeing, Penn State is is 0-14 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game since 1992.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal has hit two straight, he’ll go for a third with UL-Monroe today.

Guaranteed College Football Plays today include --Non-Conference Fraud of the Month and Paul Buck’s Saturday Sweeper

The Platinum Sheet is filled with Winning Information.

Saturday's Big Wagering Options

With Joe Paterno a college football legend, the former Brooklyn native knows his team has taken on three tomato cans and will face a squad with pulse in Big Ten opener against Iowa. The ACC has pair of arresting games, with Miami now a favorite at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech looking to knock North Carolina out of the unbeaten ranks. California has USC next, but can’t overlook perfidious Oregon first. Arkansas has given Alabama problems in the past, can they again with quality offense? Speaking of offense, the most fun game by far looks like Texas Tech at Houston, where the score is already 17-13 and they haven’t kicked off yet. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

North Carolina (+3, 45.5) at Georgia Tech Raycom 12:00E

The Tar Heels returned nine starters on defense and this has been the strength of the team early in the 2009 campaign. They will now be tested by Georgia Tech’s powerful option offense in Atlanta. Coach Butch Davis’ defense held Connecticut offense to 196 total yards and did a good job in limiting East Carolina to 13 first downs and 17 points last week. What’s encouraging is the defense has been a team concept, with 11 different players having made tackles for a loss. They are tied for 10th in the country in points allowed at 11 per game. The offense still needs work as quarterback T.J. Yates is searching for the right chemistry with receivers. North Carolina is 8-4 ATS as single digit ACC underdog.

Georgia Tech has an extra two days to prepare after losing at Miami 33-17 on ESPN last Thursday. The Yellow Jackets success or failure will in part fall upon the right arm of junior Josh Nesbitt. Far from a polished passer, Nesbitt can throw the pigskin accurately when he sticks with his mechanics. When he deviates, he can stink up the joint like he did against Clemson, going thru 1 for 11 spell.

Teams with big physical defenses that have enough quickness on the defensive front, are starting to have success against triple option attacks. This means Nesbit has to continue to be a clutch performer and come up big when called upon as he has in the past with 5-2 and 5-1 ATS record in games decided by four or less points.

Georgia Tech has won three of last five but is 0-5 ATS since 2004 versus the Tar Heels. North Carolina in fact is 11-4 against the spread in last 15 ACC affairs, with the underdog a nicely profitable 8-4 ATS. Watch the oddsmakers line for movement on this contest, with the Heels 8-4 ATS catching three or less points. The Yellow Jackets escaped 27-25 as nine-point home favorite in 2007 and they are 21-9 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3.

3DWLine – Pick

Arkansas (+17.5, 58) at Alabama CBS 3:30E

Coach Bobby Petrino has a more veteran team this season and has less to worry about from the mental standpoint after his squad lost 52-41 to Georgia at home, before getting ready to play Alabama. Nothing would satisfy Petrino’s ego more than to start knocking off giants like the Crimson Tide, so he could update his resume for the next job he’s seeking on his Linkedin or Facebook pages. His quarterback is Ryan Mallet, whose displayed NFL arm and ability to find different receivers in Razorbacks offense. Mallet will be tested all game long by Alabama defense that can make QB’s make poor choices. The Hogs head to Tuscaloosa 10-4 ATS as away dogs.

Coach Nick Saban’s defense is like the boss in the office meeting who quietly takes everything in and once he’s seen or heard enough takes control. The first few Crimson Tide opponents have had some success moving the ball in the first part of the game, but like a water faucet, are turned off after showing what they expect to do. Field general Greg McElroy has shown growth weekly, delivering strikes to receivers and improving complete view of the field. McElroy strength as a thrower is the deep ball and he’ll have numerous opportunities against Razorbacks secondary. Despite a bushel full of athletes, Bama special teams are anything but and the squad is 7-16-1 ATS as SEC favorites of 10 or more points.

This has been one of those SEC series. The home team is 5-10 ATS and has failed to cover the last four engagements and with Mallet’s big arm and talented pass catchers, Arkansas has at least a puncher’s chance to cover the spread. The straight up winner is 15-3 ATS all-time when these two universities get together, but has been trending the other way at 1-3 ATS the last four years.

Alabama has won a school record 17 straight SEC openers (8-9 ATS), while the Razorbacks are 4-12 ATS in first conference road trip. Remember also, the Tide is 0-7 ATS at home after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in three straight games and 17-5 UNDER at their place after three or more consecutive wins.

3DW Line – Alabama by 15

California (-5.5, 55.5) at Oregon ABC 3:30E

California is off harder than expected trip to the Land of 10,000 Lakes and feels prepared to open Pac-10 play with two treacherous weeks ahead. The Bears offense is in good hands when potential All-American Jahvid Best is carrying the ball. Chances are with all the talent on the field for Cal QB Kevin Riley, he doesn’t have to be great all the time; however he might be called upon to be so in enemy territory this week. Though the Bears defense can really get after the passer, they can be passed on (ranked 62nd), especially between the hash marks away from corner Syd’Quan Thompson. Cal is unsightly 0-5 ATS in the second of back to back road tilts.

Each game played places Oregon further away from LeGarrette Blount incident, nonetheless doesn’t mask obvious shortcomings. The Ducks receivers have been more likely to catch the H1N1 virus than Jeremiah Masoli passes and the junior quarterback has thrown his fair share of passes this season that have wobbled like, well, a duck. After being bottled up by Boise State, the running game has averaged 205 yards per game the last two weeks. The defense hasn’t impressed anyone (82nd in yards allowed), though linebacker Casey Mathews is emerging as playmaker and senior cornerback Walter Thurmond III is an excellent pass defender in a league stuffed with quality defensive backs. In reviewing history, Oregon is 18-4 ATS in first conference clash.

Four of the last six confrontations between these squads have been decided by seven points or less. California is 5-0 ATS playing a Pac-10 foe off a non-conference contest, with average winning margin of 38.6 points per game. Oregon is 21-14 ATS taking on ranked teams the last decade and 12-2 ATS after playing a game at home. Before losing 31-24 in Eugene in 2007, The Ducks had rattled off six straight wins over the Bears with six covers.

3DW Line – California by 5.5

Miami (-3, 47.5) at Virginia Tech ABC 3:30E

It’s sad really, from 1992 until 2003, a Miami and Virginia Tech battle was the essence of Big East football. The games weren’t always close, but they spoke about what made the conference as it grew in stature. These two rivals still meet in ACC action, but the importance has been somewhat diminished.

Coach Randy Shannon clearly did not look at Miami’s schedule before taking the job in 2006, since only a person with only short term job ambitions would want to play an early schedule that includes Florida State, Georgia Tech, the Hokies and Oklahoma in its first four games. Miami’s new wide-open offense has unleashed QB Jacory Harris, who has embraced the idea of throwing the ball to a variety of receivers. The defense is rounding into formidable unit and is allowing just 3.0 yards per carry. The Hurricanes are 7-2 ATS in last nine road excursions.

This is Virginia Tech’s third consecutive contest in Blacksburg and they are jacked after knocking off Nebraska in 16-15 thriller this past week, in a game they never should have won. Beamer-ball is often solely associated with special teams, yet what makes Frank Beamer an elite coach is finding offensive linemen that enjoy opening up chasms and shifty running backs who can fly thru them. Add in relentless defenders that run to the ball and the real recipe for success is realized playing Beamer-ball. The Hokies are 34-9 and 29-14 ATS since joining the Athletic Coast Conference.

Virginia Tech is 9-5 and 11-3 ATS versus Miami since 1995, including 5-1 against the spread record at Lane Stadium. The wagering public is both not impressed with the Hokies and very impressed with the Hurricanes, taking the ACC matchup from a Pick, to Miami by three.

The Hokies are only 5-5 ATS in the third of three or more consecutive home games and are just 7-11-1 ATS with home field advantage the last four seasons. Expect the Canes defense to stack the box like the Huskers did and force QB Tyrod Taylor to move the chains. Look for coach Shannon to use RB’s Graig Cooper and Javarris James to go after the Hokies 108th ranked run defense (200.3 YPG). The Hurricanes will have to crank up the offense, scoring more than 17 points once in last six contests.

3DW Line – Virginia Tech by 10

Iowa (+9.5, 40.5) at Penn State ABC 8:00E

Iowa has drawn very few patsies in Big Ten openers since the new millennium began and this will be no different traveling to State College, PA. The Hawkeyes have been 4-0 twice in the previous six years and a third time would bring significant attention to Kirk Ferentz’s football program, beating highly ranked Penn State. Iowa football is about the basics, blocking and tackling. The offensive line has started to come together and pair of freshmen running backs (Brandon Wegher and Adam Robinson) has folks in Iowa City excited. If QB Ricky Stanzi continues to read defenses proficiently and finds the hot receiver, the Iowa defense will hold up their end of the deal, ranked 14th in points surrendered at 12 per game. The Hawkeyes are 8-3 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

At this juncture, it’s not easy to gauge just how good Penn State is or isn’t. Most top level teams would plow through Akron, Syracuse and Temple at home, just like the Nittany Lions have. The Penn State players’ hearts should be racing, as Iowa handed them their only regular season loss a year ago, 24-23 as seven-point road favorites. Senior Daryll Clark has been accurate thrower, as the offensive line has been better at pass-blocking compared to run blocking in September to this point. With the competition in the lightweight category, what we know about the defense is they can stop the run and prevent big plays. Penn State is 8-3 ATS when favored by 17 or fewer points at home in the last four years.

Joe Paterno’s defense has held three crummy opponents to 6.7 points per game, however, Iowa’s not exactly an offense juggernaut ranked 68th in total offense. The Hawkeyes are 4-14 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards per carry. Iowa however has held the upper hand with 7-3 and 8-2 ATS mark over Joe Pa’s troops in the last 15 years. The underdog has bitten as much as it could chew with 8-2 ATS record, including five outright upsets. And get this, Penn State is bizarro-world 0-14 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game.

StatFox Power Line – Penn State 7.5

Texas Tech (+1, 74.5) at Houston ESPN2 9:15E

It’s back to work for Houston after a bye week, enjoying the adulation of knocking of then No.5 Oklahoma State on their home field 45-35. They will try and knock off another Big 12 team, Texas Tech, this time at home. Being 3-0 with two wins over Big 12 teams will have Houston and Conference USA being mentioned as BCS bowl-crasher this season. Coach Kevin Sumlin has taken what Art Briles (now at Baylor) started and improved it. The Cougars are ranked for the first time in 18 years and there is a lot of excitement about triggerman Case Keenum. The junior quarterback makes exceptional decisions in finding speedy and quick receivers. With all the praise, coach Sumlin’s toughest job might be refocusing his team; not playing Texas Tech. Houston is 15-25 ATS in non-conference play since 2000.

Texas Tech comes off the Texas revenge game and played better than expected in 34-24 defeat. QB Taylor Potts is the next signal caller in the Mike Leach assembly line that gets rid of the ball quickly and makes good reads. Potts has security blanket in wide receiver in Lyle Leong, who has been his best friend since elementary school and the two have played football together all along the way. Red Raiders coaches like what they got from running back Tre’ Newton against the Longhorns, rushing for 88 yards. With the playing surface less an issue today for the sports bettor than before, Texas Tech is a curious 10-22 SU and ATS in regular season games on natural grass.

As Mississippi proved Thursday night, playing with expectations can be stifling experience and this is what Houston has tonight. With win over Okie State, Houston is 10-5 ATS versus BCS schools since 2001, but is 0-9 ATS after two or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons. Coach Leach is one of the best bounce back coaches in the game off a loss; with his team 25-12 ATS in next effort. The total is vexing figure with Texas Tech 27-9 OVER off a cover and the Cougars 8-2 UNDER after a bye week.

3DW Line – Texas Tech by 1

Study on College Football Talent

In order for the very best teams to play in the biggest bowls their conferences have tie-ins to; the first thing they have to do is win their conference championship. The BCS has its teams they select first from its conference champions and Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West and Sun Belt winners all have bowl games lined up for them to play for winning the league title.

Coaching is important, however recruiting in what makes the very best teams. Having the best talent year after year will keep most any school at or near the top of the conference standings. I devised a way several years ago that breaks down whom the most talented players are by position with a weighted system that creates a point value, within each conference. Like all-preseason rankings, this doesn’t assure who will finish where, since players we have never heard of will emerge (does Knowshon Moreno ring a bell) and alter the dynamics of a team. Nevertheless, this is trustworthy guide leading into the season that could open up a few eyes and either make or save the sports bettor money in September and later. Key point, this does not take into consideration how a schedule will affect the outcome, just the talent aspect.


ACC -Atlantic
1) Clemson -16.5
2) N.C. State -16
3) Boston College -14.5
4) Florida State -12.5
5) Maryland - 6.5
6) Wake Forest -6

ACC – Coastal
1) Virginia Tech -23
2) Georgia Tech -20
3) North Carolina – 13.5
4) Duke -7
5) Miami- 6.5
6) Duke -6

Analysis- What was absolutely shocking about doing this study was Florida State is picked to win the ACC Atlantic by most observers, yet ranks sixth in top level talent. That is not to say the Seminoles lack ability, rather, they don’t appear to have a number of difference-makers like Virginia Tech for example. Another aspect that caught me off-guard was how devoid of superior talent the Miami Hurricanes really are. Again, similar to their rival Florida State, the “U” could emerge as a better than expected TEAM overall, but they don’t start the season blessed with tremendous ability. Clemson is under the radar a bit, which might be to their liking, since their offensive and defensive lines will be among the best in the ACC. Nine of the 12 ACC teams have winning overall records as underdogs the last four years. (Check with Sportsbook.com for the latest odds)

Big East
1) Pittsburgh -26.5
2) West Virginia -22.5
3) South Florida -20.5
4) Rutgers -19.5
5) Connecticut -17.5
6) Cincinnati -15
7) Louisville -13
8) Syracuse -10.5

Analysis- Coach Dave Wannstedt has 15 returning Pitt starters in what should be a highly competitive Big East race. Pittsburgh and Rutgers should have the best offensive lines and the Panthers will be rather stout up front on defense. West Virginia is officially in transition on offense with Pat White gone at quarterback and new passing offense will reflect changes in the coming years. South Florida and Rutgers should very competitive, with the Bulls a year smarter having learned what it means to be chased rather than a team on the rise. If USF’s defensive front plays to capabilities, watch out. Cincinnati will score points, however they have 10 new defensive starters. I know Greg Paulus would have been big time recruit if he had chosen football over playing basketball at Duke, but what does it say about how bad the Syracuse football program is when a player walks in to play the most important position on the field, having not played in four years? A ploy to sell tickets, we’ll find out.

Mountain West

1) BYU -25
2) TCU -24
3) Utah -21.5
4) Air Force -18.5
5) Colorado State -15.5
6) UNLV -14
7) Wyoming -10.5
8) New Mexico -6
9) San Diego State -3.5

Analysis – This should be another exciting season in the Mountain West, with three teams capable of winning title. BYU has the slight edge over TCU and Max Hall is poised for monster senior campaign. Utah will be in the mix after perfect season, but lost a lot of talent from last season. It’s a rare occurrence when a military school has a number of players back, but this Air Force club might have a couple of upsets they can pull off. The rest of the MWC is several rungs below, meaning they are unlikely to cover many road spreads and could cover home games, especially if top contenders have look-ahead game.

Big 12 North
1) Missouri -12
2) Kansas -10.5
3) Nebraska -8.5
4) Kansas State 4.5
5) Iowa State -2
6) Colorado -1.5

Big 12 South
1) Oklahoma -41.5
2) Texas -24.5
3) Oklahoma State 18.5
4) Texas Tech -13.5
5) Baylor -12
6) Texas A&M -0

Analysis – What jumps off the page about the Big 12 is the disparity in the two divisions. Missouri is rated talent-wise on par with Baylor, who would quality as “cash for clunkers” in the Big 12 South. Texas brings back 16 starters including quarterback Colt McCoy, nevertheless, Oklahoma will score points with QB Sam Bradford and could be a great defensive team, while the Longhorns lost numbers in the defensive line. Oklahoma State should have similar season to a year ago, with all its offense. The Big 12 North looks like winner by default and Texas A&M is the first team in four years I’ve had that doesn’t rate a player with any All-Big 12 potential. Oddmakers will have their hands full trying to find right numbers when North meets South.

WAC
1) Boise State -31.5
2) Nevada -28.5
3) Louisiana Tech-24
4) Fresno State -18.5
5) San Jose State -16.5
6) Hawaii -9.5
7) Idaho -7.5
8) New Mexico State -7.5
9) Utah State -6

Analysis- The numbers are a bit of fooler, since Boise State has easily more overall talent than any other team in the WAC, just not all-league material everywhere. That is actually good for the WAC and Nevada is the one team that could upset the Broncos, with QB Colin Kaepernick leading explosive offense behind a very good offensive line and arguably the best D-line in the conference. Louisiana Tech is going the right direct under coach Derek Dooley, having moved from seventh to third in talent outlook in three years. These Bulldogs have definite Play On potential in 2009. Maybe Fresno State should become independent, since coach Pat Hill seems to focus on those contests more anyway, for a program that looks to have stalled and is stellar Play Against conference club.

Conference USA East Division
1) East Carolina -26.5
2) Southern Miss -23.5
3) Marshall -18
4) Central Florida -9.5
5) Memphis -8.5
6) UAB -8

Conference USA West Division
1) Houston -17
2) Tulsa -13
3) UTEP -6.5
4) SMU -5
5) Tulane -4.5
6) Rice -3.5

Analysis- East Carolina and Southern Miss are the class of C-USA and should have intriguing battle. Coach Mark Snyder is in hot water at Marshall with 16-31 (16-25-2 ATS) record and has the talent to have respectable season that could save his job. All the better teams in the West Division have offensive talent and are very thin on defense to stop anybody. After 7-1 record in conference and bowl experience, Rice returns to being Rice with exceptional skill players graduated. Still a conference to watch totals on because of lack of defense.

Big Ten
1) Penn State -29
2) Iowa -18
3) Wisconsin -15
4) Illinois -14.5
5) Ohio State -14
6) Michigan State -13.5
7) Michigan -13
8) Northwestern -9
9) Minnesota -8
10) Indiana -4
11) Purdue -3.5

Analysis- I spent more time on this conference than any other. Not because I lived most of my life in Big Ten country, but because I could not believe Ohio State graded out so low. The Buckeyes won’t finish this far down in the standings, as talented players coach Jim Tressel recruited will step forward, possibly similar to the 2007 team that played LSU in the BCS title tilt. However, I’m not sure until the Buckeyes play, which those players will be. Iowa and Illinois both could be surprise teams if the Hawkeyes offense improves and the Fighting Illini come together beyond the defensive line. Wisconsin has players concentrated in certain areas and Michigan State is improving, still lacking qualities to really make a major move. Penn State, grading out this high made me think the Big Ten might be really weak this season, since the Nittany Lions suffered heavy losses, but have QB Daryll Clark and RB Evan Royster in the fold. If instincts are correct, lots of dogs will cover.

Pac-10
1) USC -31
2) California -22
3) UCLA -17
4) Oregon State -16
5) Oregon -15
6) Arizona State -15
7) Arizona -11.5
8) Stanford -9
9) Washington -7
10) Washington State -1

Analysis – Listen closely, it’s the familiar beat of top level recruits beating the doors down to play at USC for coach Pete Carroll. While some talk that California might have closed the gap this season, the Trojans most difficult opponent the last several seasons has been complacency when you least expect it, which suggests the Bears don’t fit the mold. UCLA has definite Play On potential after losing 44-man starts last season and its quarterback play couldn’t have been worse. Watch the Bruins in 2009. This is league devoid of renowned quarterback play it appears. Most teams’ fortunes (and sports bettors) will rise and fall with how well their signal callers do in making plays.

SEC East
1) Florida -35
2) Georgia -16
3) Tennessee -11
4) Kentucky -8
5) South Carolina -3.5
6) Vanderbilt-2

SEC West
1) Alabama -22
2) LSU -16.5
3) Mississippi -13
4) Arkansas -7.5
5) Auburn -6
6) Mississippi State -2

Analysis – There is an 800-pound gorilla in the SEC and everyone is trying to figure how to knock it off. Only Florida seems capable of beating Florida, in what could be somewhat of a down year for the SEC, maybe unfairly compared to the Gators squad. Georgia and Tennessee look eons away from matching up. This might be the end of the line for Steve Spurrier in Columbia, not being able to work recruiting magic to bring in high-caliber players to compete, especially on offense. Ole Miss is mildly popular pick to win the SEC West, but both Alabama and LSU have more talented players, with the Rebels better at skill positions. It’s shocking to see how far Auburn has slipped this fast from ability perspective. The SEC has several one-sided crazy against the spread rivalries that make little sense and unless you play and win.

MAC-East
1) Buffalo -20.5
2) Temple -12
3) Akron -10
4) Ohio U -7.5
5) Bowling Green -7
6) Kent State -7
7) Miami-O -0.5

MAC –West
1) Central Michigan -25
2) Western Michigan -17
3) Ball State -15
4) Northern Illinois -12
5) Toledo -6.5
6) Eastern Michigan -4.5

Analysis- Buffalo caught more than their fair share of breaks in winning the MAC in 2008. Whether they will have anywhere close to the same success is debatable, yet no arguing head coach Turner Gill has done a fine job of adding players that can compete at this level. The rest of the MAC East teams are fairly close outside of Miami-O and a startling winner could come forward, just like Buffalo did. Central and Western Michigan are head and shoulders above the MAC West pack with good talent around superior quarterbacks Dan LeFevour and Tim Hiller respectively. The MAC’s better teams usually cover spreads and the weaker teams fail to do so.

Sun Belt
1) Troy -33
2) Arkansas State -21
3) Florida Atlantic -20
4) UL-Monroe -20
5) Louisiana – Lafayette -17
6) Florida International -16.5
7) Middle Tenn. State -13
8) North Texas -6
9) Western Kentucky -1

Analysis- What separates Troy from the competition is incoming quality players ready to move into starting spots after seeing action the previous year. These replacements help keep the Trojans near the top of the Sun Belt standings under coach Larry Blakeney. From talent standpoint, the standings in the SBC could go many ways in slots 2-7, with these teams fairly balanced. What Western Kentucky brings to the party will be worth watching in their first season of conference play. Road teams have often been the best wager in conference action.

Ten College Football Bets to Consider in 2009

When the college football schedules were officially released, it is a terrific time to go through the various leagues and forecast what the potentially lucrative spots are to profit from. The factors may include revenge, scheduling and look-aheads. Here is ten specific dates on the calendar which are worthy of consideration for wagers.

September 3
South Carolina at N. C. State

North Carolina State closed the 2008 regular season with four wins to earn bowl berth, before falling 29-23 to an equally hot Rutgers club in the Papajohns.com bowl. Coach Tom O’Brien’s disciplined style started to take root and 15 starters are coming back from last year’s turnaround squad. The Wolfpack were embarrassed 34-0 at South Carolina last year and have return engagement in Raleigh this go-round. The Gamecocks lost a number of talented defenders and last year’s offense was a mess, rushing for just 94.1 yards per game. This matchup will once again be on ESPN and coach Steve Spurrier is only 7-7 ATS in non-conference games and has usual early date with Georgia next on Sept. 12. South Carolina is 2-7-1 ATS facing non-conference foes before the Bulldogs. Motivated Wolfpack do the job.

September 19
Texas Tech at Texas

The first month of the season has only one game that truly matters to returning Texas players, Texas Tech. The Red Raiders kept the Longhorns out of the BCS title game in 2008 and its payback time. Senior QB Colt McCoy has a veteran offensive line and experienced receiving corps, led by Jordan Shipley. Normally coach Mike Leach’s offense does not slow down much when new signal caller is brought in, however expected starter Taylor Potts will be starting on the road for the first time in Austin on a Saturday night, after facing softies North Dakota and Rice. The home team is 8-3 ATS in last 11, add one more W to that total with team in burnt orange burning in-state rival.

September 26
South Florida at Florida State

South Florida returns its two stars; quarterback Matt Grothe and defensive lineman George Selvie. Coach Jim Leavitt has been scheduling softer since joining the Big East and has three milk cartons (Wofford, @ West. Ky. and Charleston Southern) before facing Florida State. Even with quality players like Grothe and Selvie, the lack of big time competition will hurt USF at Tallahassee. The Seminoles will have already played Miami-Fl. and at BYU and be better prepared. Florida State isn’t about to let an in-state squad build reputation at their expense and buries the Bulls with skill and depth.

October 17
Wake Florida at Clemson

More than anything, this is nefarious scheduling slot for Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons suffered four ACC losses last season and their first three conference games are against teams they lost to. The last one is a home game against Maryland, whom they were white-washed by 24-0 last season at College Park. Clemson on the other hand will be off a bye and should be ready after losing as a favorite last year 12-7 at Wake Forest. With the visitor 2-6-2 ATS the last decade, emotionally worn-out Wake doesn’t fire against rested foe.

October 24
Oregon State at USC

The line on this Pac-10 clash probably won’t be fair, however it might not matter. By the end of October, the quarterback will be well-situated, behind a stellar offensive line for perennial power USC and pursuing revenge will be utmost on the Trojans mind after last season’s debacle. Oregon State has holes to fill on the defensive and offensive lines and though the Beavers should be settled, the wave of emotion will be too much to overcome. The visitor is 3-8 ATS and coach Pete Carroll will have his Cheshire cat grin after encounter.

November 7
Houston at Tulsa

The Tulsa offense won’t be as potent as the last several seasons, nevertheless the defense brought back eight starters and they have long memories. The Golden Hurricane started 8-0 in 2008 and had BCS talk swirling around them until they lost at Arkansas 30-23. Two weeks later, still afflicted with pang of first loss, Tulsa ran into hot Houston club who hung 70 points on them, in 40-point loss. (That’s 7 followed by zero) The Cougars are favored to end Tulsa’s claim to C-USA West title this campaign, however they are off huge Southern Miss home game and are stymied by rare November Hurricane in Oklahoma.

November 14
Utah at TCU

Utah grabbed all the headlines in the Mountain West Conference in 2008, with perfect 13-0 season. The Utes won three games by three points or less last season and arguably the toughest was against TCU, who led almost the entire way. The Horned Frogs did everything right, but could not stop Utah on their final deciding drive in 13-10 loss. TCU is the host this campaign and the core players that led to 11-2 season return. With Utah looking for its road legs after three straight home games, the Horned Frogs will be well prepared and are 17-7-1 as single digit conference favorites at Amon G. Cater Stadium.

November 21
Penn State at Michigan State

Penn State will start the season as the #6 team in The Edge, but not too far down the line is Michigan State at 20th. Third year coach Mark Dantonio has upgraded the talent at East Lansing to where the Spartans will have legitimate chance to finish second in the Big Ten, if the cards fall their way. Dantonio is a very serious type and expects his players not to accept losing. Michigan State was pummeled at Penn State 49-18 as 16.5-point underdogs and set up to be home dogs this time around. With excess provocation and the home team 9-3 ATS, expect Sparty to retake the Land Grant Trophy in 2009.

November 27
Rutgers at Louisville

The last Thursday night game of last season was memorable for Rutgers and an absolute nightmare for Louisville. The Scarlet Knights crushed the Cardinals 63-14, out-gaining them 671 to 318. Many are not that optimistic about Louisville’s chances of regaining recent past glory, yet if coach Steve Kragthorpe expects to be coaching beyond this season at present location, he needs his team to watch film of last season for this day after Thanksgiving contest. If the Big East plays out as presumed, Rutgers might take the ‘Ville for granted, looking ahead to season ending encounter at home against West Virginia.

November 28
Rice at Houston

The Cougars may have a tough time in Tulsa, but this offensive juggernaut has some dishing out to do them selves. Houston only needed to win at fellow city disputant Rice, for right to play in C-USA title game, instead was blasted 56-42, in a game that wasn’t that close. Quarterback Case Keenum is dynamic and the Cougars should be right back in same position this time on home turf. Rice loses all its important offensive weapons and these Owls are not going to be noted for defense. Houston may use 70+ point calling card again versus Rice. The home team is 7-3 ATS.