2010 BIG 10 CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

When you talk Big 10 Football these days you talk Ohio State.

The Buckeyes won at least a share of the last five Big Ten Championships and will look to match the conference record with a sixth straight crown in 2010, equaling the feat first accomplished by Ohio State from 1972-77. OSU became just the second team in conference history to win five straight conference championships after claiming the 2009 title, splitting the crown with Penn State in 2005 and 2008 and ending the 2006, 2007 and 2009 seasons alone in first place. The Buckeyes have compiled a Big Ten mark of 36-4 over the last five years. Ohio State became the first conference team in over 15 years to finish in first place in five straight seasons since Michigan won at least a share of five consecutive championships from 1988-92.

The 2009 Big Ten Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year return to their respective teams in 2010. Wisconsin RB John Clay and Michigan State LB Greg Jones enter the 2010 campaign as the respective winners last season. Clay becomes the first returning Offensive Player of the Year since 1999 when former Purdue quarterback Drew Brees returned to the Boilermakers after being honored as a sophomore in 1998. Jones becomes the first returning Defensive Player of the Year since 2008, when Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitis came back to successfully defend his 2007 conference honor.

The Big Ten also welcomes back seven starting quarterbacks from the 2009 season, five of which led their teams to bowl appearances. Iowa senior Ricky Stanzi and Ohio State junior Terrelle Pryor each led their squads to BCS victories last January, Stanzi in the Orange Bowl and Pryor in the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin senior Scott Tolzien led the Badgers to a victory in the Champs Sports Bowl, while Minnesota senior Adam Weber guided the Gophers to the Insight Bowl. Michigan State junior Kirk Cousins guided the Spartans' in their 31-point effort in the Alamo Bowl. Also returning in 2010 is the conference's top statistical passer, Indiana senior Ben Chappell, and Michigan sophomore Tate Forcier, the only full-time freshman starting quarterback in the Big Ten last year.

And the there’s Joe. Penn State's Joe Paterno picked up his 394th victory with a triumph over LSU in the Capital One Bowl and currently holds the all-time victory record among Football Bowl Subdivision coaches. Paterno has built a record of 394-129-3 in his 44 seasons leading the Nittany Lions. Paterno is the longest serving head coach at one school in major college football history.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

ILLINOIS – 5 / 7
TEAM THEME: OUT OF JUICE
Thanks to a disappointing offense and an even worse defense, the Illini could only squeeze out three wins in 2009. Six new assistant coaches arrive in Champaign to sort out the mess led by OC Paul Petrino (Bobby’s brother) and DC Vic Koennig. Petrino’s playbook won’t include Juice Williams, whose once promising career soured out, or top WR Arrelious Benn, a 2nd round NFL draft pick. The plan may be to revert back to classic Big Ten football as four of the team’s top five RB’s return. In addition, four of the Illini’s top five tacklers are back in the fray. With eight bowlers lining the 2010 schedule, including road trips to Penn State and Fresno State, ‘three yards’ may be a bit optimistic. However, the cloud of dust is likely to hang over this program for at least one more season.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Fresno St (12/3)

INDIANA – *8 / 4
TEAM THEME: QUICK DRAW
The feeling here is the Hoosiers could be a real sleeper team in 2010. Four of their eight losses last year were by 3 points or less. A promising 3-1 start ended in a 0-5 disaster after IU blew a 25-point lead at Northwestern and followed up by choking away a two-TD lead at Iowa. The roster is loaded with upper classmen (19 seniors, 23 juniors) and efficient QB Ben Chappell is back to lead an offense that will add the ‘Pistol’ to its repertoire. Chappell was the first QB in IU history to complete 60% of his passes in a single season. A favorable early schedule could find the Hoosiers off to a quick 5-1 start. However, they’ll need to continue pulling the trigger late in the season to silence some conference opponents and prevent another November nightmare.
PLAY ON: vs. Purdue (11/27)

IOWA – *6 / 8
TEAM THEME: COMEBACK KIDS
Talk about stability. Since 1979 only two coaches have manned the Iowa City sidelines – Hayden Fry and Kirk Ferentz. Ferentz may have saved his best coaching job for 2009. Despite ranking 10th in the Big 10 in scoring, rushing and total offense, the 12-year veteran guided his team to a 6-2 conference record, an 11-2 overall mark and an Orange Bowl win over Georgia Tech. Did we mention that Iowa, amazingly, trailed in every contest last season until the regular-season ender versus Minnesota! The Hawkeyes 10th-ranked defense (277 YPG) constantly saved the day. Expect more of the same in 2010 as it welcomes back eight starters, including the entire front four. The return of injured QB Ricky Stanzi and RB Jewel Hampton should provide the ‘O’ with a much-needed boost. Either way, the Kinnick Stadium crowd should be in for another ‘Kardiac Kampaign’.
PLAY ON: vs. Northwestern (11/13)

MICHIGAN – *7 / 8
TEAM THEME: FORCIER THE ISSUE
Pete Fiutak of College Football News.com put it best when he asked of Rich Rodriguez’s playbook, “Is this thing ever going to work?” As disappointing as Michigan’s spread offense has been, the defense has been worse – decaying 57 YPG since Rich Rod’s arrival. Last season, the Wolves suffered through a 6-game Big Ten losing streak for the first time in 50 years. In fact, Rodriguez has 13 conference losses in just two seasons at Ann Arbor. FYI: It took Bo Schembechler 13 years to lose 13 Big Ten games! There was one bright spot in the Big House and that was the play of freshman QB Tate Forcier, who passed for over 2,000 yards and 13 TD’s. The automakers repaid Obama five years early on their bailout loan. Rodriguez may have to do the same if he doesn’t get it in gear this season.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Notre Dame (9/11)

MICHIGAN STATE – *7 / 6
TEAM THEME: HELTER SKELTER
East Lansing saw the good, bad and ugly in 2009. On the good side, the Spartans beat Michigan for a second straight season – the first time that’s happened since the Beatles were topping the charts in the mid ‘60’s. From a mediocre standpoint, Mark Dantonio’s bunch dropped six regular season games for the first time under his direction – though five of those losses were by a total of just 23 points. Now for the ugly: Thanks to a frat spat at the end of the regular season, a black cloud hangs over the heads of 11 players found guilty of brawling. The news also varies in 2010. Thanks to graduation losses and the fraternity chaos, the WR corps and D-line is severely short-handed entering the 2010 season. The good news is QB Kirk Cousins, who started all 13 games in 2009 and ranked No. 25 in the nation in pass efficiency, is back. Let’s hope ugly stays home.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Northwestern (10/23)

MINNESOTA – *9 / 2
TEAM THEME: SATURDAY IN THE DARK
To paraphrase a line from Dennis Green, “The Gophers are who we thought they were” – a middle of the pack Big 10 team. After a terrific turnaround in 2008, a big 2009 season could have made HC Tim Brewster millions. However, an uneventful 6-7 year capped off by a bowl loss to Iowa State has the Gophers’ faithful feeling a little punky. With just two starters and no linemen back on defense, the Minneapolis natives may be best served to keep the TV off until Sunday. The biggest shoes to fill will be the loss of three LB’s that were all NFL combine attendees. While point production dropped for the third straight year under Brewster, Minnesota’s offense may suddenly be the strength of the team with nine starters back. Nine bowlers roll onto the 2010 slate but six visit the comfy confines of TCF Bank Stadium. Saturday looks like another yawner in the City of Lakes.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Northern Illinois (9/25)

NORTHWESTERN – 8 / 6
TEAM THEME: CURIOUS ‘CATS
Savoring their most successful stretch of football in school history, the Wildcats finished the decade with a 61-60 record. The winning record may come as a bit of a surprise… as should this little piece of bar trivia: in the last 15 years, only Ohio State and Michigan have won or shared more Big Ten titles than Northwestern’s three crowns. While HC Pat Fitzgerald won just five Big Ten contests in his first two years in Evanston, his Wildcats have posted five conference wins in each of the last two seasons. An offensive line that returns intact along with the entire linebacking crew should keep the ‘Cats prowling in 2010 – but career back-up Dan Persa will have to fill the void left by 2009 Big Ten passing leader Mike Kafka. Road trips to Penn State and Wisconsin may cost the ‘Cats a couple of lives, but another year without the Buckeyes on the slate could have this bunch feeling frisky.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Indiana (10/30)

OHIO STATE – *10 / 6
TEAM THEME: COVER UP
The combination of eight home games and a ferocious defense that ranks third nationally over the last six years (280 YPG), makes the Buckeyes serious title contenders in 2010. If he doesn’t cave under the pressure of being our cover boy, QB Terrelle Pryor should be a front-runner for the Heisman Trophy. After a mid-season loss at Purdue, Pryor took matters into his owns hands (and feet), leading the Buckeyes to a season-ending 6-game win streak, including a Rose Bowl win over Oregon. The junior has plenty of help on offense as nine starters return, including a backfield that HC Jim Tressel calls the deepest he’s had in his 10 years at Columbus. Ohio State’s biggest hurdles on its way to a BCS title tilt will be road games at Wisky and Iowa. Along, of course, with our aforementioned cover jinx. Just ask Big Ben, who graced – or should we say disgraced – last year’s edition.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Iowa (11/20)

PENN STATE – 7 / 5
TEAM THEME: AMAZING RACE
To those who contend Joe Pa is slipping, we say you need to tune into a reality show – real quick. Not only have the Lions posted back-to-back 11-win seasons, but the only team that they have failed to outgain over the last two regular seasons has been Ohio State, as Penn State is 22-2 ‘In The Stats’ during that span. A tough schedule, laced with eight bowlers and road trips to Alabama, Iowa and Ohio State figure to test those numbers in 2010. Replacing QB Daryll Clark may also test Paterno’s patience, though highly-recruited SO Kevin Newsome is poised to win the starting job. Linebacker U. returns only five starters on the defensive side of the ball but that unit is in its usual reloading, rather than rebuilding, phase. It’s another race against time for the 83-year old Paterno. Our money is on Joe.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Alabama (9/11)

PURDUE – 6 / 6
TEAM THEME: SIMPLY MARVE-ELOUS
For the second straight year, the Boilermakers lose a starting QB to graduation. Joey Elliott did an admirable job replacing Curtis Painter and now it’s Robert Marve’s show. The transfer from Miami Fla, who lost his starting job to Jacory Harris, will be front and under center as the Boilermakers look to avoid a third straight losing season. Despite a seven-loss campaign, there is ‘Hope’ in West Lafayette (read: Danny). Six of the seven losses in 2009 were to bowl teams and four were by seven or less points. The second-year head coach also saw his forces win four of their final six games, beating Ohio State and Michigan in the same season for only the third time in school history. A defense that lost its entire secondary will have to be addressed but with only three winning teams on this year’s ticket, it could be a ‘marvelous’ time to be a Boiler.
PLAY ON: vs. Minnesota (10/16)

WISCONSIN –*10 / 6
TEAM THEME: ALIVE AND KICKING
It could be argued that the majority of the Badgers wins last season came against teams that barely had a pulse. Thus it was strange to watch Wisconsin manhandle Miami in the Champs Sports Bowl last year. That’s because the Badgers’ three losses last year were to quality opposition. Ironically, they will face only three teams (two coming at home) in 2010 that enjoyed winning seasons last year – the same three that took them down in 2009. That leaves nine foes sporting losing ledgers and, behind 16 returning starters, Bret Bielema is obviously anxious to let the games begin. And kick this around, if you will… Bielema, who is 38-14 in his four seasons at Madison, has seen his team involved in 13 games that were decided by three or less points. He is 9-4 in those games, with wins in five of the last six. The holes are few and far between in Camp Randall Stadium.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Ohio State (10/16) – *KEY +6.5 pts or more

Something new for Sunday

Looking at 5 Sunday college games from a basketball betting perspective:

1. Ordinarily a team off such an important win as Temple's 49-41 smothering of Dayton would be a candidate for a letdown. But the Big 5 is still important in Philadelphia and if Temple can beat LaSalle they'll be the first Temple team to go 5-0 in the intra-city series since the Mark Macon-led 1987-88 squad. Since their blowout loss at Richmond , the Owls have held their four opponents combined to less than 34% from the field, with none of those teams shooting any higher than 40%.

2. UConn hosts Louisville in a game with the vibe of a postseason affair. Pointspread watchers may see the Cardinals "surge" as an illusion, as the only game that Pitino's charges have covered in their last 6 affairs was the outright upset win at Syracuse. The Cardinal are on a 3-10 pointspread run overall. Meanwhile, UConn is suddenly popular among sports bettors, as they've won and covered three in a row, including outright upsets over West Virginia and Villanova. Previously the Huskies had a potential massive outright upset thwarted by the officials in Syracuse . A win by either club here may wrap up a tourney berth.

3. If you don't have the Big 10 Network, well, no big deal. All you're missing is Indiana at Iowa at 6PM EST. Indiana has lost 9 straight and failed to cover 6 straight. Iowa has lost 8 of 9. Iowa wasted Indiana 58-43 earlier this season in Bloomington as 6-point road dogs, holding the homestanding Hoosiers without a 3-point field goal in 9 tries. Ironically, at a slow time in the sports day this game will be prominently featured on the big screens in Las Vegas sports books.

4. The earlier Big 10 game is no prize either. Northwestern is in unfriendly pointspread territory, as this is only the second time that Vegas and online sportsbooks haven't had Northwestern taking 7.5 points or more in a conference road game. The other outlier was when Northwestern lost by 13 at Iowa as a small road favorite. Previously considered to be a potential NCAA tourney team, Northwestern has managed to lose to both Iowa (2-12 in the rest of their conference games) and Penn State (1-13 in their other conference games).

5. Fortunately, despite the ugly affairs provided by a few "power conferences" there is a real beauty between a pair of underrated teams in the strong Atlantic 10 on ESPN2 this afternoon. Overlooked Xavier and underrated Richmond are two teams with potential to do some damage in the NCAA tournament. It is clearly Sunday's most attractive matchup, and you'll be a little bit better prepared for March Madness if you try to catch it.

Good luck on Sunday, and be careful.

Written by Kevin O'Neill of Real World Sports.com

Orange Bowl Preview

This year’s Orange Bowl is so absurdly easy as what to watch for it barely needs to be acknowledged, however when scenarios like this occur, often the some other side of the story ends up what really determines the winner. Georgia Tech’s option offense is a sight to behold, ranking 11th in total offense, at 307 yards per game against teams that only surrendered 156 yards per contest on the ground.

Iowa was a sturdy defensive squad all season, allowing just 15.5 points per game and was ranked 11th in total defense in the country. On the year the Hawkeyes conceded just 3.5 yards per carry and fundamentally squeezed the life out of most offenses, never allowing more than 28 points in single game.

This is where many people has chosen to focus their attention and unquestionably it will be important, especially if it one-sided for their team. Nevertheless, when the Iowa has the ball and how Georgia Tech defends them will be equally as important.

Ricky Stanzi is expected back at quarterback for Iowa, after missing last two and half contests with injury. If you Goggled the term - winning ugly- you would get a Hawkeyes team picture. Stanzi threw just one more touchdown than interception on the season (15 vs. 14), but always seemed to play his best in the final 30 minutes. The Hawkeyes have underrated pass catchers like TE Tony Moeaki and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who led team in receptions. If Stanzi can get started, Iowa could move to 6-0 ATS after allowing 17 or fewer points like they did against Minnesota in 12-0 whitewashing.

Georgia Tech’s defense was strictly average against teams that didn’t run the ball well like Iowa; they for the most part held them in check. With the Hawkeyes running backs healed and ready to go, it’s impossible to overlook the fact the Yellow Jackets were gouged for 662 yards on the ground their last two games. Iowa might well come out with short passing attack, to loosen up the linebackers from Georgia Tech, before plowing ahead with the running game to test their mettle. Coach Paul Johnson’s club is 15-6 ATS on a grass field over the last two seasons.

All right, I can tell by the look on your face you are not buying this thought process. You are betting this game on one factor either way. Iowa holds Georgia Tech to 200 or less yards rushing and pulls the upset or the Yellow Jackets wear down the Hawkeyes with the constant thumping of the option and makes them jelly-legged and armed like they’ve been shoveling snow for four hours straight.

Iowa (10-2, 7-4 ATS) has been a sound bowl team, going 7-3 ATS in its last 10 and underdogs are 8-2 ATS in those games. The Hawkeyes are on the receiving end of 5.5-points at Bookmaker.com and have to attack the option. Defensive ends on either side have to work up-field to disrupt, but not getting out of position. The linebackers have to play assignment football and not run to QB Josh Nesbitt, otherwise any of the other speedy backs will go the distance. Iowa is 21-5 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 200 or more rushing yards a game.

Coach Johnson’s team lost twice and when they did they gained 205 and 95 yards on the ground, far below their average. Kirk Ferentz’s team really limited the opponent’s passing in holding them to 60 yards below their average at 165 YPG. Georgia Tech’s passing game always has the element of surprise, which catches opposing teams off guard. Coach Johnson teams are 10-1 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 17 or less points.

Both schools were superb away from home, with Iowa 4-1 and 5-0 ATS and the Rambling Wreck 6-1 SU and ATS. Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in Orange Bowl’s since 2004.

3DW Line – Georgia Tech by 3

College Football Saturday Betting Options

It’s been jam-packed season of crazy occurrences in college football and we’re getting down to the nitty-gritty. With what the schedule looks like, this is the last chance for TCU to be knocked off facing quality Utah club. The Big Ten title is on the line in Columbus, but sports bettors believe it will be one-sided. Florida and Alabama look to keep matching towards what appears to be BCS semi-final tilt. Oregon’s slip last week left them no room for error if they expect to be Pac-10 champions. What about ABC promoting potential Notre Dame train-wreck, instead of just how good this Pittsburgh team is and that they will have real chance to knock off unbeaten Cincinnati in the coming weeks. Jimmy Football is even more fired up than usual about Saturday’s action. Odds courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Iowa (+16.5, 37.5) at Ohio State 3:30E ABC/GP

Ohio State (8-2 SU&ATS) understands their Big Ten fate after winning impressively at Penn State 24-7. The Buckeyes offense has never found a comfort zone and in recent weeks and has dipped into coach Jim Tressel’s bag of tricks to score or setup better field position to score points. Though quarterback Terrelle Pryor has made improvements this season, he’s not taken the big stride forward. Part is dissonant offensive line, barely average running backs and receivers lacking experience. The defense has been at usual Buckeye standards, holding eight opponents to 18 or fewer points, including three shutouts. Ohio State is 11-0 ATS the week after battle with Nittany Lions.

While Iowa (9-1, 6-3 ATS) had drawn comparisons to 2002 Ohio State national championship team by winning a large number of close games, they are not in the same class, which home loss to Northwestern proved. If anything, that Buckeyes team underachieved, winning half their games by seven or fewer points and having 19 players drafted over a two-year period. The Hawkeyes talent level is not anywhere close to that benchmark and has achieved success by playing hard and never giving up.

Iowa has trailed on the scoreboard in eight of nine wins this season and that was with Ricky Stanzi at quarterback. Now QB James Vandenberg gets his chance. Last week he had a lot of pressure on his, especially after the Hawkeyes fell behind. This week, nobody is giving the Hawkeyes a chance, as bettors have pounded Ohio State. Mental resolve goes a long way as Iowa has outscored the opposition 148-57 in the second half, including 107-44 in the final 15 minutes. Iowa will be a conference road underdog for the fourth time this season and they are 3-0 SU and ATS and 9-1 ATS on the road the last two seasons. Since 2000 the Hawkeyes are 17-10-1 ATS in this exact role.

Ohio State is 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS since 1989 against Iowa including five straight SU and ATS beat-downs with average margin 20 points per game. If Iowa doesn’t turn the ball over, they’ll have a great chance to cover, if they do, the Buckeyes build on aforementioned numbers over the Hawkeyes.

3DW Line – Ohio State by 17

Florida (-17.5, 42) at South Carolina 3:30E CBS

This is Florida’s last SEC game already, having peculiar schedule that ends with two non-conference tilts. Scheduling Florida International next is a wise move before annual confrontation with Florida State. The Gators (9-0, 4-4 ATS) haven’t always looked like the best team in the country, but has shown signs of putting everything together with last two wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. The red zone issues are being answered and Tim Tebow has been more in sync with his receivers, like Riley Cooper. The defense is as good as there is ranked second in the country (232.4 YPG), led by team leader and linebacker Brandon Spikes. Wide receiver Brandon James and TE Aaron Hernandez have dropped more passes than necessary this season and a game might be coming in which that could haunt Florida. The Gators are 8-1 ATS as SEC road chalk.

This is also South Carolina’s last conference clash and has just in-state rival Clemson left. Since scoring 28 points against Kentucky, the offense has not been able to turn digits on the scoreboard, averaging 12.2 points per game. Facing a hungry Gators defense is not the easiest way to find a way to manufacture points. Quarterback Stephen Garcia has to keep wits about him in the passing game with the pressure he will face and be on target when the Gamecocks (6-4, 5-5 ATS) are in position to put up points. This will be a touchdown game, not field goal fest. Senior linebacker Eric Norwood and defensive mates have to throw off the timing of Florida offense and force turnovers that can lead to points. They haven’t lately and are 3-12 ATS in home games after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers.

South Carolina is 4-7-1 ATS as home underdogs under coach Steve Spurrier. The former Gators head man is 1-3 and 2-2 ATS vs. his alma mater.

3DWLine – Florida by 15

Alabama (-12.5, 43.5) at Mississippi State 7:00E ESPN

Alabama (9-0, 6-3 ATS) has won six of last eight against Mississippi State; however that doesn’t tell the whole story. From 1996 to 2000, the Crimson Tide lost four of five to the Bulldogs, with a matching spread record. In the last two decades, Mississippi State has covered the spread 14 of 20 times and been a real nuisance to Bama. Other than Ole Miss, Alabama is the next biggest rival on the Bulldogs menu and for the most part aren’t even given consideration by Alabama, which irks the folks from Starksville to no end.

Part of the Crimson Tide’s lack of focus comes from having LSU just after or before the Bulldogs, just like this season. No team can be emotionally ready week after week and this is a plausible explanation for Alabama’s problems with Mississippi State. Alabama has had to make adjustments offensively. In the first part of the 2009 campaign, opponents made a concerted effort to take away WR Julio Jones. This took a player out of the box and running back Mark Ingram has had big year. More recently, Ingram has been the focus of attention and QB Greg McElroy’s inability to complete passes has prevented the Tide from taking advantage until last week. Bama is 13-7-1 ATS since 1999 as SEC road faves and is perfect 6-0 ATS as visiting team the last two seasons.

The Bulldogs (4-5, 5-3 ATS) have played every ranked team they have faced tough, losing by 10 or less points. New coach Dan Mullen is seeking a first year signature win to help attract better recruits and an upset of Alabama has them on the front page or home page of every sports news outlet. Mississippi State has one of the premier running games in the country (12th) at 219.2 yards per game, with Anthony Dixon toting the pigskin. The Bulldogs are 6-6 ATS as home dogs vs Top 10 teams in last dozen tries. Seven of last 11 conflicts have been UNDER the total.

3DWLine – Alabama by 12

Notre Dame (+6.5, 58.5) at Pittsburgh 8:00E ABC/GP

Notre Dame saw their BCS bowl aspirations drown in upset loss to Navy 23-21. What looked like a 10-2 season, could easily turn into 7-5, starting with Pittsburgh next. The not always Fighting Irish (6-3, 2-7 ATS) welcomed back receiver Michael Floyd last week, giving quarterback Jimmy Clausen his full complement of weapons, like he had in the first 2 ½ games of the season. With Golden Tate having All-American season, the offense will be as dangerous as it has been all season. The offensive line will be tested against top quality Pittsburgh defensive front that is among the top 10 in the country. Notre Dame’s defense is always a concern and they will have to play above proven ability to stop one of the balanced attacks in the country. The Irish are 2-11 ATS in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in previous game.

Once beaten Pittsburgh (8-1, 6-2 ATS) scheduled wisely for this brawl. The Panthers have yet to lose in the Big East and have closing games with West Virginia and Cincinnati to determine who wins the conference and the BCS berth. However, they can give Notre Dame their full attention with a bye next week. Arguably the most improved quarterback in the country is Bill Stull, who’s blossomed under new offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. A more harmonious offense line has kept Stull’s jersey clean and freshman RB Dion Lewis has made a big splash, as the nation’s first 1,000 yard rusher. Pitt stopped Syracuse 37-10 last week and is 16-5 ATS in home games off a win against Big East rival.

The Panthers are just 3-9 ATS versus Notre Dame including 1-4 ATS at home. The visitor has won and covered four in a row.

3DWLine – Pittsburgh by 13

Utah (+20, 47) at TCU 7:30E CBSC

This is potentially the last big game in the Mountain West Conference if Utah can’t pull the upset of highly-ranked TCU. The Utes (8-1, 3-6 ATS) have just one blemish in the loss column, which occurred at Oregon, a 31-24 loss as four-point road dogs. Utah’s defense allowed the Ducks just 312 yards on that mid-September afternoon and has only allowed 14.3 points per game since. The Utes have reputation for being effective when it counts most and they have won eight of their last nine games decided by a touchdown or less. Coach Kyle Whittingham made the tough choice, going with talented true freshman QB Jordan Wynn, who’s provided a lift, particularly in the red zone. Utah is celebrated 41-20 ATS as an underdog, including 12-1 ATS as a Mountain West road dog of three or more.

Since the decade began, TCU (6-3 ATS) has won 92 games and been a continual contender in the Mountain West, now in its fifth season. The Horned Frogs have higher expectations this year sporting 9-0 record. With a victory over Utah, only at Wyoming and New Mexico stand in the way of perfect season and possible BCS berth. Just how good has TCU been, take away the snow and wind contest at Air Force (20-17 win), they have conquered all other teams by average score of 39-10. The Horned Frogs have domineering defensive front and quickness throughout the defensive two-deep. After years of being an efficient game manager and good runner, QB Andy Dalton has become more accurate thrower, making TCU much more alarming on offense. The Frogs are 11-3 ATS as a home favorite over the last three seasons, winning by 26.3 points per game.

Utah is 5-1 and 4-2 ATS and has won three in a row in this confrontation. TCU is 17-1 and 15-3 ATS in November battles in Fort Worth.

3DW Line - TCU by 18

Arizona State (+18.5, 50.5) at Oregon 10:15E ESPN

The Oregon Ducks (7-2, 6-3 ATS) look to continue their march towards a Pac-10 title and have home game against the Sun Devils. Oregon’s seven game winning streak ended at Stanford with foul defensive performance. The offense is hardly a duck out of water, averaging over 40 points a game in conference action, including the 24 against UCLA when quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was out with knee injury. Opposing teams have much to fear, as one Pac-10 coach said about Ducks offense after watching USC massacre. “The execution was at the highest level I’ve ever seen someone run the spread option attack,”

Another aspect is the athleticism of the Oregon defense, which is evident watching them play (when motivated) and fly around to the ball. It’s no wonder they are 28-11 ATS when they allow 15 to 21 points.

Folks in Tempe are showing signs of restlessness after three straight Pac-10 losses and 2-5 record since starting 2-0. Injuries have been a big factor for a squad lacking any real depth. Rumors are circulating that Dennis Erickson has a coaching staff littered with too many cronies and not enough younger energetic types that can recruit and keep the players fired up. Erickson is also calling the offense and questionable clock management has surfaced in different games, with many believing the head coach’s plate is too full. The defense is well above average (15th in total defense); however they will have to be uncommonly extraordinary to slow Oregon. The Sun Devils are a pale 8-18-2 ATS as a conference club catching points.

Oregon has oppressed Arizona State (4-3 ATS) in last four meetings, winning and covering each time, with average differential 24 points a contest. These two schools have averaged 64 points per game the last three years.

3DWLine –Oregon by 18.5

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror

Let’s get a couple of things out of the way before we start. I liked when Notre Dame hired Charley Weis, I really did. I enjoyed his bravado, his I’m smarter then you attitude, it was a refreshing change for a truly holier than thou place.

In the last couple of years, I defended Weis as Notre Dame slid to levels not seen before in South Bend, but it’s over, no more. It’s time for Weis to be on the clock towards heading back to the NFL, it’s not going to work.

Chances are numerous 10-year old children raised families and could have become grandparents between Navy victories over Notre Dame from 1963 to 2007, now it’s happened twice in three years at Notre Dame Stadium. Weis deserves the blame. The players he’s recruited can’t stop the run or the pass. He’s changed defensive coaches, he’s called the plays, he’s let somebody else call the plays and then decided he should call them again. Generally speaking, the feeling is the only constant is change and not for the better.

I heard ESPN radio’s Colin Cowherd say Charley Weis didn’t just become dumb. He’s a smart man; he helped build the New England Patriots dynasty if you will. He certainly knows more about football than the average fan. He went on to add that sometimes even the smartest people make bad decisions, but that doesn’t make them stupid.

But how smart is Weis to not to have players prepared for Navy? They lost to them just two years ago, who cares if they are a foot shorter and 70 pounds lighter, the Middies are going to bring it, especially against Notre Dame. But an unmotivated team after pounding up on Washington State was out-everythinged by Navy. Goodbye BCS. The Irish are underdogs at Pittsburgh this week and very likely will be underdogs at Stanford, so thoughts of 10-2 in August are realistically heading towards 7-5.

The Notre Dame brass was dumb enough to give Weis 10-year contract, I’m certain they are three phone calls away from somebody donating for buyout of his contract. Brian Kelly of Cincinnati by all appearances is the right guy; a self-made coach who has won at every level and shown even the Bearcats can win at very highest of levels. Is Notre Dame relevant to an 18-year old, probably not that much, but no reason for this! I admire what his family life has been like, but that is separate from football. Sorry Charley.

While mentioning Cincy, I wonder when was the last time a team had over 700 yards of offense and didn’t cover. That was the Bearcats who hung on to win over Connecticut 47-45 as 16-point home favorites.

Another team similar to Notre Dame, lacking overall talent is Iowa and it finally caught up to them in loss to Northwestern. Losing QB Ricky Stanzi was chaotic blow and they lacked enough other offensive weapons to survive yet again. Unbeaten teams that lose late in the year are good play against clubs and Ohio State was impressive on both sides of the ball in dominating Penn State on the road. The Buckeyes have won by 20 points per game in last five meetings.

Stanford was setup for perfect situation and delivered upset over Oregon 51-42 as a touchdown home underdog. Often when teams are flat it shows up on defense and penalties. The Ducks were torched for 505 yards against the Cardinal and had nine penalties to three for Stanford. Oregon should have no problem with Arizona State this week, however the trip to Tucson won’t be a picnic and Oregon State is starting to play very good football.

Kudos to Alabama for sucking it up at home against LSU, winning 24-15 as seven-point favorites. A 14-0 fourth quarter run showed championship ability. Granted, the Tigers didn’t have all their offensive weapons due to injury late in the game, but the Crimson Tide’s desire was wholly evident.

In the NFL, its official, the New York Giants are as Tom Petty once sang “free fallin”. Giants’ apologists are saying nobody knows his team better than coach Tom Coughlin, trying to explain away why the Giants never threw the ball twice when at the San Diego 14-yard line, before settling for field goal and 20-14 lead. Should New York have stopped the Chargers in game winning drive, of course, nonetheless having 10-point lead would have made it a whole lot easier. The Giants may have failed just the same, but you have to try and score a touchdown. The bye couldn’t have come at a better time for New York, who faces a very challenging last seven games.

Recent history has told us to never judge Dallas until December, yet the win at Philly showed a tougher Cowboys club and a smarter Tony Romo.

The New England at Indianapolis game this week should be ridiculously fun.

The Green Bay Packers are not well-coached (went over that last week) and have put together poor game plans on offense and defense the last few weeks. Rookie Bucs QB Josh Freeman looked like a 10-year against Green Bay, who had former DE Aaron Kampman guarding a back out of the backfield near the goal line in new defensive scheme. Touchdown Tampa Bay. Packers get Dallas at home, good luck.

Wonder if Jay Cutler has Denver nightmares? Did you know the New Orleans defense has as many touchdowns as Drew Brees has touchdown passes the last three weeks?(5) Are the Bengals really more physical than Baltimore? After beating them twice as underdogs and running the ball effectively both times the answer is yes. The loss of receiver Chris Henry will hurt however.

As talented as Anquan Boldin is, are the Arizona Cardinals better without him? Bolden was unhappy sideline viewer with injury against Chicago and really for the first time all year, the Cardinals made concerted effort to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald and the offense looked like the one that went to the Super Bowl. The Bears defense was embarrassed at home.

Good for Vince Young, with Tennessee winning consecutive games. He’s sparked the entire team. He’ll never be a fantasy player pick, but if he keeps working at his craft and plays to his strengths, he could well become a solid winning NFL quarterback. The Titans are not going anywhere, but they will be a dangerous underdog the rest of the year if they keep playing hard.

Sunday NFL Contributions

Overall a 2-2 CFB Saturday, with San Diego State a major disappointment not covering against a New Mexico that had not won a game and had beaten them 70-7 the previous season. Anyways, on to the NFL and Bill goes for a second Free Winner, calling for the upset. The Top Trend is in the AFC East and the Best System has lost once in 20 years! Good Luck

You’ve voted Indianapolis as the unbeaten team most likely to make it to Super Bowl, for this week’s poll question, thanks.

What I thought yesterday – I don’t recall off hand a team having a quarterback throwing five interceptions winning a game, let alone covering a 17-point spread like Iowa did.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON a non-conference home team the defeated a non-conference opponent by 21 or more points in last game. Over the last two decades this system is 12-1-1 ATS, 92.3 percent including 2-0 this year. The Colts are such a team.

Free Football Trend-2) The Miami Dolphins are 2-14 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 150 or more rushing yards per game.

Free Football Pick -3) Bill of the Left Coast Connection has Buffalo as his top selection this day.

Paul Buck Guaranteed NFL Winner Sunday! Tired of losing, join in on the winning parade.

Top Saturday College Football Tilts

What a great day! Meaningful college football games from coast to coast all day long. South Florida needs the upset in Western Pennsylvania to stay in Big East race. Big Ten contenders will be in action with both state of Michigan teams trying to defeat fellow members ahead of them in the standings. After last week’s bruising Red River Rivalry, both Texas and Oklahoma venture out on the Big 12 road. It’s the first of three important Mountain West matchups, this one in Provo. Tennessee and Alabama have long history of unusual outcomes, upset in the making? Finally, USC seeks revenge for its lone loss from 2008 playing host to a rested Oregon State squad. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com

South Florida (+6.5, 48.5) at Pittsburgh 12:00E BE Network/GP

South Florida (5-1, 2-2 ATS) emerges with its first loss after being defeated by Cincinnati 38-17. With a few extra days to prepare, the Bulls get ready for another Big East bash at Pittsburgh. Surprisingly, South Florida’s offense has kept pace with redshirt freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels, taking over for the injured Matt Grothe. Daniels style compliments Grothe’s, being able to run and throw the pigskin effectively. USF is second in the Big East in scoring (33.7) and third in total offense. The Bulls defense has been stingy all year in allowing 286 yards per game (18th nationally) and has been one of the best in the conference in allowing seven red zone touchdowns. The Bulls are just 2-6 ATS in road sandwich contest.

Pittsburgh (6-1, 4-2 ATS) has a bit more rest than normal also, after handling Rutgers 24-17 on the road. The Panthers have turned into a fine-tuned offensive machine, able to gobble up vast amounts of real estate, playing extremely physical football. On occasion, Pitt’s production in scoring points falls short, which could be a conundrum against a fine defense like South Florida. Pittsburgh can control the line of scrimmage in this contest with its sturdy front seven, but has to be careful of the deep ball against the Bulls. Pittsburgh is 2-7 ATS against teams with .600 record or better.

This is just the seventh meeting between these two schools and the home team is 2-4 SU and ATS. Pitt will look to establish the run and are 6-2 ATS before a bye. South Florida’s Top 10 ranking was ruined by Pittsburgh last season 26-21 and they will seek revenge.

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 8.5

Penn State (-4.5, 47.5) at Michigan 3:30E ABC/ESPN

The Nittany Lions (6-1, 3-4 ATS) will attempt to stay in the Big Ten hunt when they visit Ann Arbor. Penn State quarterback Daryll Clark has rebounded nicely from his career-worst game against Iowa in Penn State’s lone defeat with a trio of fine performances. “Daryll’s just a great leader. He doesn’t let things like that bother him,” wide receiver Brett Brackett said. It will be the defense that will have to play at their best to slow down Michigan attack. The Wolverines multiple offense has moved the ball on everyone and this will be the most lethal attack Penn State have seen to date. Penn State is 0-6 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 14 points or more over the last three seasons.

Michigan (5-2, 4-2 ATS) should have a great deal of confidence playing in the Big House with 5-0 and 3-1 ATS record. The Wolverines freshman quarterbacks have been much more poised at home. Ball security will be imperative against an opportunistic opponent like Penn State, meaning no forced throws. Coach Rich Rodriguez would prefer to depend on his offensive line and let RB Brandon Minor pound away, since they are averaging 5.4 yards per carry. The Wolverines defense has been spotty all season (7th in Big Ten), showing moments of greatness and futility within the same quarter. Michigan is 11-6 ATS as single digit Big Tem home underdog.

The team with the funny helmets has dominated this series, winning nine in a row before falling 46-17 last year at State College. The Wolverines are 7-3 ATS in those 10 meetings and has knocked them off five times when Penn State was in the Top 25.

3DW Line – Penn State by 4

Oklahoma (-8, 55.5) at Kansas 3:30E ABC/GP

The seventh game of the Kansas schedule will provide an indication of which way the season might go for the Jayhawks. Kansas (5-1, 2-3 ATS) has been involved in a few shootouts this campaign and have been bailed out most of the time by senior quarterback Todd Reesing. The defense has been especially vulnerable to the pass (95th), surrendering over 245 yards per game and plagued by poor tackling all season. With QB Sam Bradford out and the Sooners having punishing running game, the Mangino’s can’t expect Reesing to save them against Oklahoma’s seventh rated defense. Kansas is 7-12 ATS a Big 12 home underdog since 2000.

These are riveting times in Norman, with Oklahoma at 3-3 and looking at a second non-BCS bowl bid in eight years. Oklahoma pass receivers are not helping whoever is throwing the ball for the Sooners (2-3-1 ATS), with too many dropped balls occurring. The offensive line needs to play with more grit inside the opponents’ 20-yard line and start moving more bodies that lead to touchdowns. Reesing in a handful, thus continual pressure up front is a necessity. The Sooners are 12-1 and 8-5 ATS after Red River Rivalry.

Last year’s game produced 75 points and but this contest doesn’t figure to approach that number. Kansas is 8-15 ATS as home dog the last nine years; however watch the line since they are 5-0 ATS when receiving eight or loss points with revenge. Coach Mangino was on the Bob Stoops staff prior to taking Kansas job. Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS following a straight up loss in the regular season.

3DW Line – Oklahoma by 4.5

Tennessee (+13, 43) at Alabama 3:30E CBS

Tennessee may only be 3-3 SU and ATS; nevertheless signs of improvement are everywhere. In the Volunteers three losses, they have a turnover margin of -4, showing they could have closed the gap in those games which were lost by a total of 18 points. The 45-19 spanking of Georgia was huge confidence booster, outgaining the Bulldogs 472-243, with Jonathan Crompton looking like presentable BCS signal caller. Coach Lane Kiffin’s father Monte, has worked with a defense that has faced numerous injuries, yet led by All-American safety Eric Berry, the Vols have conceded just 220 yards against offenses averaging 374 yards per game. Tennessee is 23-8 ATS in road games in weeks five through nine the last 16 years.

Nick Saban has won more than 69 percent of the game he has coached at the collegiate level and these days that number just continues to rise. Saban isn’t much interested in being pals with the alumni, his message is let him win football games and everyone “should” be happy. Saban has a wrecking crew on defense, in the Top 10 of every important category. They vitiate opponents and are not only fast, the front seven has larger bodies more associated with the fellas that play on Sunday. The Crimson Tide (7-0, 5-2 ATS) is rolling with 12-4 ATS record after two or more consecutive SU victories.

The SEC is loaded with quirky rivalries and this is one of them. Dating back to 1992, the visitor is 15-2 ATS. Alabama has covered three in a row and last year was the first time in five seasons the favorite won and covered.

3DW Line – Alabama by 13

Iowa (+1.5, 42) at Michigan State 7:00E BTN

Iowa kept their unbeaten season intact at Wisconsin and with 7-0 start for the first time since 1985 and the Hawkeyes will play a second consecutive road game, this time in East Lansing. The Iowa (4-2 ATS) offense still sputters, as QB Ricky Stanzi makes enough foolish plays to keep the opposition in games and the offensive line been unsettled with injuries, causing consistency problems. After a fast start, the defense had shown cracks and survived lately on making big plays. The Hawkeyes defense has to rise to occasion and they are 18-6 ATS in road games when they allow 300 to 350 total yards.

After a lumbering 1-3 season start, Michigan State (4-3, 3-3 ATS) could really get themselves back into Big Ten title contention with triumph over Iowa. The Spartans have stabilized defensively in winning their last three Big Ten battles, getting a better pass rush and finding the right combination the secondary after early season shuffling. On offense, the always burly Michigan State offensive line has been moving people off the line of scrimmage and whatever healthy running back has run the ball effectively. Both quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol have run the offense capably for Sparty to average 29.3 points per game. The Spartans are 13-5 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival.

The home team has won nine straight (6-3 ATS), but for the most part these teams have been evenly matched, as the last six meetings have seen the line be seven points or less. This is why the underdog is 15-4 against the number.

3DW Line – Iowa by 1.5

TCU (-2.5, 52) at BYU 7:30E Versus

If you think you have seen this act before, well you have as TCU, BYU and Utah are all in contention for another Mountain West title. The first major matchup takes place in Provo. BYU (6-1, 3-4 ATS) has handled last four opponents with relative ease since Florida State mishap, which is all the more painful with how the Seminoles have played since. The Cougars running game has hit another gear the last month averaging over 200 yards per game. They will be confronted by angry Horned Frogs who hold opposing teams under 82 yards per contest on the ground. QB Max Hall is the catalyst to exceptional passing that totals 9.6 yards per pass attempt. BYU doesn’t allow backers to feel real comfortable with 1-9 ATS mark after playing a MWC contest over the last two years.

Visiting TCU doesn’t change much under coach Gary Patterson. They have a terrific front four that rushes the passer with abandon; linebackers that stuff the run (8th nationally) and most years an above average secondary. On offense, roughly 60 percent or more plays involve the run and the passing game features either short out-routes and taking deep shots. The Horned Frogs stuffed Colorado State last week 44-6 and are 7-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game.

TCU spoiled BYU’s perfect season a year ago 32-7 at home, holding the Cougars to season-low 297 yards. BYU will look to return the favor on their gridiron and is 12-5 ATS before a bye week. Revenge aside, the visiting team is 5-2 ATS in this encounter.

3DW Line – BYU by 1

Texas (-13, 49.5) at Missouri 8:00E ABC/GP

After deposing of Oklahoma 16-13, the Texas Longhorns (6-0, 1-4-1 ATS) are uncanny 12-0 SU in next game and have covered the spread in nine of last 10. This is the first of two prickly road games for Texas, moving on to Oklahoma State next. Coach Mack Brown is still seeking receiver to compliment wide receiver Jordan Shipley. The running game hasn’t been all that productive against better competition (107.6 YPG). Because of injuries, inexperience and ineffectiveness of the offensive line, Colt McCoy has been forced to run similar to last season. The Horns defense has shut the door to prevent opponents from starting fast or locked them down after they owned brief lead. They rank 5th in the country in total defense and have forced 19 turnovers this season.

Sporting a 0-2 record in the Big 12, Missouri coach Gary Pinkel is being scrutinized in the blogging community for not changing his run offense, which is 10th in the Big 12. “We want to run the football better,” Pinkel said. “But we’re not going to change how we run the ball.” Most complaints have been about the lack of quick hitting plays and miniscule 3.8 yards per carry. The defense will have to rise to the challenge again and try and corral a quality colt in Mr. McCoy. Missouri (4-2, 3-3 ATS) is just 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58 percent or better.

Since 1916, Missouri is 1-14 vs. Texas with 5-6 ATS mark. The Longhorns are 11-3-1 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up wins, but 6-18 ATS on the road after five or more consecutive victories.

3DW Line – Texas by 10.5

Oregon State (+20.5, 52) at USC 8:00E ABC/GP

As if USC needs any more incentive after Notre Dame 34-27 triumph, in comes Oregon State, who hung the only “L” on the Trojans last season. Last year’s 27-21 loss as 25-point favorites was the lone blemish on USC card and they can’t afford another if they want to keep Pac-10 and national championship hopes alive. Pete Carroll’s offensive is beginning to churn, with Matt Barkley more comfortable, which has opened up the playbook and made the offense something other than vanilla. Defensively, USC (5-1, 2-4 ATS) is choking opposing team’s offenses, yielding just six touchdowns this season. With safety Taylor Mays preventing anything deep and a sack-happy front four, the Men of Troy are a load. USC is 54-13 ATS when they outgain their opponents by two or more yards play.

Oregon State is 4-2 (2-3 ATS) and knows what kind of situation they are heading into. The Beavers are off a bye week and have been busy. Coach Mike Riley after losing home games to Cincinnati and Arizona tried to change his club’s focus. Riley explained, “…if you can live in the moment and get ready for one game at a time,” much can be accomplished. After defeating Arizona State and Stanford, Oregon State has been tweaking the offense and refining things they do well. James Rodgers leads the Pac-10 in all-purpose yards and OSU coaches have to feed him the ball to give offense a chance. The Beavers are 11-3 ATS off a Pac-10 win.

Oregon State is 3-31 SU in last four decades vs USC, but has two upsets in last three years. The favorite is 3-6 ATS since 1999.

3DW Line – USC by 12.5

Looking ahead in Rearview Mirror in College Football

Ohio State detractors and Big Ten bashers won’t have to worry about Ohio State screwing up BCS championship game plans. The Buckeyes were whipped on all fronts at Purdue. Helmets smattered with buckeyes might intimidate some teams but the talent at Ohio State is not substantially better when it chooses not to play. Purdue ravaged Ohio State on both sides of the ball. The Boilermakers forced five turnovers and sacked Terrelle Pryor five times. They had 24 first downs to Ohio State’s 12. In other words, after five consecutive losses, Purdue wanted it more than the Buckeyes and took it.

Three observations, first coach Jim Tressel needs to hire a coach that can make Pryor a better quarterback. All the talent in the world is useless without practical application. Second, Pryor needs to grow-up, the gliding into the end zone for two-point conversion and the behind the back basketball-style flip to bring Ohio State WITHIN eight points is better served with a lead, not when trailing. Lastly, don’t expect the Buckeyes to be overrated the rest of the year by oddsmakers, this team simply isn’t that good and finishes at Penn State, Iowa and at Michigan.

USC proved they deserve to be in national championship discussion and if they play like they did for three quarters at South Bend, Texas better start beating Big 12 teams with abandon. Though Notre Dame has closed the talent gap with the Trojans, wasn’t the feeling USC had 15 players that looked like they could play in the NFL, while the Irish had around six. Matt Barkley looks fantastic and being able to throw to TE Anthony Mc Coy and WR Damian Williams is a real privilege, especially against a Notre Dame secondary that couldn’t cover a piece of toast if they had a stick of butter.

Not sure if the Notre Dame offensive linemen stopped to shake hands with USC defensive end Everson Griffen, but if they did it was the only time they slowed him down all day. Safety Taylor Mays was exceptional and took away Irish tight end Kyle Rudolph (3 catches, nine yards). The last remaining challenge for the Trojans is at Oregon and that should determine Pac-10 title. If Pete Carroll’s crew plays the same or improves, the Ducks are in trouble.

Notre Dame can say what they want about closing the talent gap and all that nonsense. The Irish showed plenty of fight, but this was their opportunity and they came up short. What really matters looking ahead does this team have the character to close 10-2 or do they do what many expect and find a way to finish 8-4?

Really felt bad for Sam Bradford in the Red River Rivalry contest and if I’m an NFL scout, my urgency meter is really up on him. Twice he’s proven the lack of escape-ability from the shotgun. The same again was proven about Tim Tebow vs Arkansas. These quarterback’s are so comfortable receiving snap, feeling little pressure and just making one read and rip. When pressured, they lack the survival instinct of stepping up or avoiding the chaos around them and are easy targets for on-rushing linemen.

Coach Bob Stoops was 3-3 in 2005 and his team responded winning four of last five, how will this group perform? Coach Urban Meyer can thank his lucky stars Arkansas could not execute when it counted most, missing touchdown pass and field goal that would have added more pressure on the Gators. The toughest remaining game on the regular season schedule is at South Carolina and Florida will be favored in all other games. If the opponent can play defense, wouldn’t count the Gators as safe bet as Tennessee and Arkansas proved.

Iowa overcame 10-0 deficit at Wisconsin and took over the game with 17-0 second half. What was impressive about the Hawkeyes is they held the Badgers to 87 yards on the ground. This week at Michigan State and later at Ohio State appear to be the stumbling blocks. Grit and determination are what this Iowa team is about, but that doesn’t mean it holds up every time. Best guess if Iowa and USC win out, the Trojans would be 17 or more point favorites in the Rose Bowl.

Texas Tech didn’t overwhelm Nebraska statistically (259 yards to Huskers 285), but buried them on the scoreboard 31-10. This Big 12 matchup had two elements almost no one saw coming. Nebraska opened as 5.5-point favorites and were bet heavily to 11-point choice, before the market adjusted them to 10.5. Evidently the Cornhuskers are a good matchup for the Red Raiders, who have won four straight. The total of 58.5 was never in question. Coach Mike Leach will have to make coaching decision as backup QB Steven Sheffield throws a nice ball and is elusive an a runner. Taylor Potts is about ready to comeback from concussion.

It was just last week Virginia Tech was the class of the ACC, blah, blah, blah. As was noted, this isn’t typical Hokies defense and Georgia Tech proved just it, bruising and deceiving Virginia Tech for 309 yards on the ground in 28-23 upset as 3.5-point underdogs. The Yellow Jackets option is on fire and here is the reason they might go 11-1 and be a solid bet. In their last two losses, Miami had 10 days to prepare for the option and LSU had basically a month in Chick-fil-A Bowl. All five remaining opponents have conventional one week.

Goal Line Observations – Central Michigan is the best team in the MAC and should continue to stay a good bet thanks to improved defense in 2009….Idaho is not a fluke, too bad they have to play at Boise State….Pop Illinois out of the microwave, they are done. At 1-5 and 0-6 ATS, they are headed nowhere with that defense….This was presumed to be a down year for the Pac-10 with a dearth of quarterbacks. Yet out of nowhere youngsters are emerging. Matt Barkley is headed for stardom and Stanford’s Andrew Luck and Arizona’s Nick Folk combined for 838 yards in Wildcats come from behind 43-38 victory.

Top College Football Games to Consider

For this Saturday on the collegiate gridiron, two longstanding rivalries top the schedule. The evenly divided Cotton Bowl, half burnt orange and half red, presents a perfect setting for the Red River Rivalry, with the winner again taking command of the Big 12 South. The best annual intersectional rivalry resumes with USC traveling to South Bend. An influential Big Ten battle has Iowa at Wisconsin and the same goes in the ACC with Virginia Tech visiting Georgia Tech. Nebraska still hasn’t forgotten 70-10 loss to Texas Tech five years ago and would love to lay out the Red Raiders. Can the Ol’ ball coach work magic and upset No. 2 Alabama? Everything will be determined on another great Saturday of college football action. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Oklahoma (+3, 52) vs Texas 12:00E ABC

For Oklahoma (3-2, 2-3 ATS), it has been a tough go in 2009. Having to play without its Heisman Trophy quarterback for most of the season, potential All-American tight end and recently losing its best receiver. Despite having more problems than David Letterman, the Sooners still control their own destiny with a win over archrival Texas. Like most coaches, Bob Stoops doesn’t worry about whose not there, instead trying to get the most out of who is. Sam Bradford played last week in Baylor bounce back win 33-7 and is having to go without TE Jermaine Gresham for the season and WR Ryan Broyles is questionable. Another factor in this equation is a defense lacking in big stops. In spite of nine starters returning and No.9 ranking, the Oklahoma defense did not made an important shutdown in their losses to BYU or Miami. The Sooners are 1-3 in last four meetings and haven’t covered since 2004.

As Texas (5-0, 1-4 ATS) found out last season, beating Oklahoma isn’t enough and they have to keep focused with road games at Missouri and Oklahoma State up next. Colt McCoy hasn’t been quite the quarterback he was a season ago, but still having a very good 2009 campaign. He’s been helped by a running back by committee this season, as coach Mack Brown has gone with the hot hand and kept feeding the ball to that back. What might make the difference for the Longhorns this season is the defense (No.4 overall). The defensive line was hit by graduation, nonetheless defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has pleaded with his team about the importance of seizing the momentum with key stops and turnovers and its paid dividends. Texas is 5-12 ATS vs ranked teams on neutral fields.

The underdog is 14-7 ATS since 1988 in Red River Rivalry’s, with the margin of victory 10 or more points in 10 of last 11 battles. The Longhorns are 6-18 ATS away from home after five or more consecutive straight up wins. The Sooners are 8-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last two seasons. Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS as road underdog under coach Stoops, upset in the making?

3DWLine – Texas by 2

Iowa (+2.5, 47.5) at Wisconsin 12:00E ESPN

If a person is ardent fan of Big Ten football, than you know Wisconsin hates Iowa. Neither school would consider the other its biggest rival, nevertheless Badger fans detest Iowans. After losing at Ohio State last week 31-13, Wisconsin (5-1, 2-3 ATS) is setup nicely to run the table in the conference after their upcoming bye week. Running back John Clay has dropped a few calories and is back to running hard behind an improving offense line, with Badgers rushing for over 200 yards per game. Quarterback Scott Tolzien has more weapons at his disposal than what was believed in the preseason, with better athletes manning skill positions. Coach Brett Bielema and his defensive staff have out-maneuvered opponents with attacking defense. The Badgers are 20-11 ATS as single digit Big Ten favorites.

Coach Kirk Ferentz has never big on style over substance, which is why he’s pleased with Iowa’s 6-0 record. Closer than anticipated victories over Northern Iowa (17-16) and Arkansas State (24-21) are much better than a loss from Ferentz point of view. After last week’s thrilling 30-28 victory against Michigan, the Hawkeyes hit the road for a pair. Top priority is stopping the Wisconsin run game and making the Badgers as one-dimensional as possible. This strategy worked versus Arizona and Penn State and Iowa is confident it can work again. On offense, quarterback Ricky Stanzi has hit a few big plays the last couple of weeks and Wisky is vulnerable in the secondary, allowing 210.3 yards per game against opponents that only throw for 174 YPG. Iowa is 5-9 ATS in the first of two road games.

The Hawkeyes are 19-10-1 ATS since the turn of the century as conference dogs of 9.5 or less and they are 6-1 ATS facing the Badgers. Wisconsin has not covered last three tilts at home against the Iowa and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in Madison.

3DW Line – Wisconsin by 1

USC (-10, 50) at Notre Dame 3:30E NBC

Forget all the come-from-behind wins, forget the 4-1 record and forget Jimmy Clausen Heisman talk, for Notre Dame followers and detractors, this is the benchmark game of the season. The Fighting Irish have a BCS bowl offense and an International Bowl defense. Notre Dame (1-4 ATS) has lost seven in a row to USC (1-6 ATS) and six of those games, the Trojans margin of victory has been Nancy Pelosi eye-opening 31 points per game. Charley Weis and his team feel this team is different, having a potential All-American quarterback and an offense that keeps overcoming the defenses’ flaws. The two biggest factors for Notre Dame will be keeping Clausen in vertical position and the ability of Irish defenders to keep USC out of the end zone. Notre Dame is 11-27 ATS having won four out of their last five games.

If the California game is precursor of USC’s true abilities, watch out. The Trojans (4-1, 2-3 ATS) defense tamed the Bears like a zoo keeper and now has similar numbers to last year’s unbelievable group. QB Matt Barkley was productive against Cal and won’t be intimidated at South Bend, having played at Columbus and at Berkeley already. Pete Carroll is pleased to report injured players like wide receiver Ronald Johnson should be back, which can open up the Trojan playbook. The Men of Troy are 39-7 and 29-17 ATS in non-conference action.

Rest assured, USC has no problem playing the Irish since they have a “who’s your daddy sticker” on them. The Trojans are 14-3 ATS with two or more weeks of preparation and figure to be in good shape wanting to continue domination. This has to be a “Wake up the Echoes” game for Notre Dame. Somehow, someway they find a way and pull the upset and move to 5-2 ATS as home underdog against Top 10 team.

3DW Line – USC by 3

Texas Tech (+11, 61) at Nebraska 3:30E ABC/GP

With regular starting quarterback Taylor Potts out with concussion for undetermined amount of time, coach Mike Leach looks on building the confidence of his backup Steven Sheffield. Leach not only likes his quick delivery, but his mobility also. “Of our quarterbacks we have right now, he creates the best tempo for the group,” said Leach. The Texas Tech head man as other issues, like an offensive line that is allowing too much pressure on his pigskin passers. That needs to be solved with Nebraska’s ability to turn up the heat. They will face a strong Huskers running game (5.2 yards per carry), however the Red Raiders (4-2, 3-2 ATS) are 15-4 ATS versus excellent rushing teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards per carry.

Playing in a steady downpour, it’s hard to look overly impressive; nonetheless Nebraska (5-0 ATS) played 15 minutes of football that will be remembered in Lincoln. Down 12-0 after three quarters at Missouri, the Cornhuskers scored the game’s last 27 points to raise record to 4-1. Led by likely All-American defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, he and his defense teammates took over the game and a soggy Nebraska offense cashed in on their opportunities. If coach Bo Pelini’s squad can win this Big 12 contest, this sets up for the Cornhuskers to be 7-1 when they host Oklahoma on Nov.7. Nebraska is 7-3 ATS in the first or two or more home games.

Nebraska has dropped three straight to Texas Tech after winning the first seven meetings in the series. No Cornhusker fan will ever forget the 2004, 70-10 massacre in Lubbock and returning the favor would be the sweetest revenge. The Huskers are 15-3 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points a game. This has become a potentially ruse line, with Nebraska money flooding in from opening line of the Huskers at -6.

3DW Line – Nebraska by 9

Virginia Tech (-3, 52) at Georgia Tech 6:00E ESPN2

Virginia Tech (5-1, 3-3 ATS) buried Boston College 48-14 at home and has rugged assignment. The Hokies defensive front will be put to the test against the Georgia Tech option offense. This isn’t your vintage Frank Beamer defense, allowing over 123 yards rushing per game and not in the Top 25 in total defense (34th). This will be another tester in terms of desire to succeed and hold the line. Virginia Tech might gain one advantage if Tyrod Taylor continues to throw the ball well, since the Yellow Jackets are a rambling wreck against the pass, being burned for over 249 yards a game. Hokie offensive football is still based around the running game and they will have to run the pigskin on the ground to be successful. The Hokies are sensational 17-3 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less.

Georgia Tech (5-1, 3-2 ATS) has a Sesame Street lineup having three games against teams that start with the letter V (Virginia and Vanderbilt on deck) in a row. The success the Yellow Jackets have enjoyed this season is when they attack early, both on offense and defense. The option will bog down from time to time, which means if Josh Nesbitt can get things started quickly, that helps momentum, particularly helpful in front of the throng at Bobby Dodd Stadium. The defense has been plagued by missed assignments in the secondary and poor tackling. The Jackets will look to crank up the running game and are 17-6 ATS when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt.

Virginia Tech has won four of the last five tilts; with the road team 5-1 ATS in recent clashes. Prior to last season’s 20-17 Hokies win, the average margin of victory was 23 points per game.

3DW Line – Virginia Tech by 5

South Carolina (+17.5, 45) at Alabama 7:45E ESPN

This has to rank among the stranger seasons the ol’ ball coach has had being a head coach (working for Daniel Snyder not included). The defense lost a ton of talent from last year, yet South Carolina (5-1, 4-1 ATS) has only conceded more than 17 points twice this season. Despite constant shuffling in the offense line, the Gamecocks total on average just over 370 yards per game, not bad considering the turmoil. Senior linebacker and captain Eric Norwood finds a way to make an impact in every game and he will need to in a big way to slow down the Alabama attack. South Carolina is 9-4-1 ATS as road underdogs under coach Steve Spurrier.

Coming into the season, Crimson Tide (6-0, 5-1 ATS) backers thought their team had the potential to be even better than last year’s club that took 12-0 record into the SEC title game. The 55 returning lettermen are all physically stronger and a year wiser to coach Nick Saban’s no nonsense approach and if quarterback Greg McElroy could come thru, no telling how far Alabama could rise. McElroy has been tremendous and other pieces have fallen into place. Sophomore running back Mark Ingram has been as good as advertised, but tight end transfer Colin Peek is really fitting in, as he and McElroy have gotten more comfortable with each other. The Tide is 9-22-2 ATS in SEC home games, which includes three straight covers.

This is the first of trio of conference home games for Bama, who is 9-16-1 ATS when favored by 10 or more points. In studying Crimson Tide trends, most have come from the past and under coach Saban, most everything has been a lot different. For proof, check out 9-2 ATS record after a win by 17 or more points over the last two seasons, winning by 21.6 points per game. These teams last met in 2005 and the visitor has covered the oddsmakers number the last three times.
3DW Line – Alabama by 17

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror

It seems a little dull, at least at this time that Florida and Alabama are clearly the two best teams in the country and not much excitement stands in their way until they play in one BSC semifinal game again this year, referred to as the SEC Championship Game brought to by Dr. Pepper. (No money changed hands for product mention; it’s just how the announcers promote the game).

On Saturday afternoon, Alabama played a version of Bear Bryant football in smothering Ole Miss 22-3 as four point favorites. The Crimson Tide was effective enough against a very good Rebels defense (the score could have easily been 40-3) and moved the ball and played outstanding defense. Quarterback Jevan Snead looks like a not ready for primetime player and coach Houston Nutt will have to do serious damage control to save this season and his signal caller.

Later, Florida’s defense so thoroughly bottle up LSU on their home turf, they looked like they could stop the recession in conceding a measly 162 yards. Offensively, coach Urban Meyer was very cautious, having Tim Tebow play, but never exposing him to a lot of big hits. If you noticed, Tebow went down in piles more readily to protect himself.

Texas dropped to No.3 in the pools, but that is no big deal since they are the top team in the other quasi-bracket as long as they keep winning.

If I were an Iowa fan, I’d be very nervous about trip to Madison this week. Granted, the Hawkeyes have had success at Camp Randall; however, they have surrendered 49 total points the last two weeks and have given 145 or more yards on the ground in half their games this season. Bettors have taken Iowa from short favorite to 2.5-point underdog quickly.

Though the line didn’t move virtually all week, Connecticut was receiving a lot of love from handicappers in forums, based on their defensive play. Pittsburgh was a seven point favorite right up until game time and had a chance early to blow them out, but a dropped pass for touchdown and an overthrow for another by QB Bob Stull left the Panthers without points. Connecticut capitalized on Pittsburgh’s mishaps and built a 21-6. At that point, the Panthers went on the prowl and ended up with a 489-305 yards advantage. After coming back to tie the score at 21-21, Pitt was moving the ball effortlessly and had first and goal at the three and gave backers hope for a well-deserved push or win. Instead, they plowed the ball three times into the middle of the line and were all too pleased to kick game winning field goal. They have a game at Rutgers this Friday and the underdog is 6-1 ATS.

UCLA held Oregon in check with the Ducks using backup quarterback Nate Costa and led 3-0 at halftime, catching 3.5-points as home underdog. Well, faster than you can University of California, Los Angeles, Oregon opened the second half with kickoff return for touchdown, a Pick Six interception and engineered a 53-yard touchdown drive off another UCLA turnover in less than four minutes, rendering Bruins betting tickets useless.

Auburn looked liked paper Tigers as Arkansas had a superior offensive game plan and was shredded by the Razorbacks for 495 yards and 28 first downs. Arkansas contained the Tigers explosive offense for over 40 minutes before they had a few big plays against them in easy 44-23 whipping.

The SEC is very top heavy this season. Mississippi State and Vanderbilt both lost in non-conference action as favorites and Kentucky gave South Carolina fits in 28-26 cover. Georgia was destroyed by Tennessee, with the much maligned Jonathan Crompton having career game with four TD passes.


Study the numbers

This has been reported here for weeks and is deserves your attention. It is imperative to find the early numbers on totals in college football and if you have access to the up to the minute figures on Saturday’s, you have to start finding these. This season in college football, totals that have moved three or moves points in either direction have been correct 79-35-1, 69.2 percent. That is money waiting to be made and the oddsmakers haven’t been able to work it fast enough either as 25-9 (73.5 percent) record proves the last two weeks. If you don’t know where to find the earliest lines, send me email doug_isllc@yahoo.com.

Did you know CFB underdogs have yet to have a losing week this season? At 20-20 ATS opening week, they are 137-109-2, 55.7 percent. The last three weeks, dogs catching 10 or more points are 41-21, 66.1 percent.

In the NFL, after a 5-11 against the spread start, home dogs have started to bark the last couple of weeks with 7-3 ATS record. This seems to happen every year of late, mostly in the first half of the season, but teams traveling three time zones are 2-6 ATS thus far.

It is being widely discussed that oddsmakers have a real issue concerning the best teams playing the worst teams. How high a number do you place on teams like St. Louis, Oakland or Tampa Bay when playing one of the better NFL teams? This is bore-out in this simple method. The last two weeks, team’s over .500 playing against teams with a record below .500 are 8-3 ATS.

Good Luck this week!

Saturday College Football Betting Previews

With conference play on across the country, important matchups popup the second Saturday in October that will have a massive impact on what the standings will look like in early December. The winners will emerge with a decided edge and the losers will be playing catch-up unless the breaks fall their way. Ole Miss has to beat Alabama, since another SEC loss relegates them to less bowl possibilities. The winner of Wisconsin and Ohio State grabs the upper hand in the Big Ten and both host Iowa. Oregon is playing like many thought they would back in August; however that has been in Eugene, they’ll see what they can do at UCLA. The Hawkeyes will try and move to 6-0 hosting Michigan after dark. The loser of Georgia and Tennessee will have to take a look at their goals for the rest of the year. Odds courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Georgia (+1, 46) at Tennessee 12:00E SEC Network

The SEC is steeped in football tradition, which makes no sense why Georgia and Tennessee can’t be played on what it historically known for “the third Saturday in October”. Every college football fan south of the Mason-Dixon Line knows this; but the schedule-makers have decided to ignore tradition. The Bulldogs (3-2, 1-4 ATS) are off emotionally draining 20-13 home joust with LSU, which was their last home game until Nov.7. Coach Mark Richt’s squad has had to fight for everything this season, not having supreme talent difference. Quarterback Joe Cox has played fairly well, but has made his contribution to Georgia having 13 turnovers this season. A.J. Green and Cox have been clicking with more regularity, opening up the running game. The Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS in the first of two or more SEC true road encounters.

After losing to Auburn 26-22, Tennessee (2-3 SU&ATS) is in a very demanding position. The Volunteers defense has been struck by a large amount of injuries, forcing backups to compete in this extremely competitive conference. Coaches can say the next person has to be prepared and step up, however, when you are facing multiple substitutions, the task becomes more daunting. Tennessee is seeing more eight man fronts, daring quarterback Jonathan Crompton to throw and he needs to keep his poise and deliver strikes. The Vols are 10-23 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9.

Off last week’s challenging encounters, this is gut-check time for both SEC squads. Another conference loss could send Tennessee tumbling, with Alabama and South Carolina on deck after a bye week. The visiting team is 4-2 and 5-1 ATS and Georgia stays in the SEC East hunt with a victory. Totals players beware, the Vols are 10-0 UNDER against SEC opponents over the last two seasons.

3DWLine – Tennessee by 7

Alabama (-4.5, 46) at Mississippi 3:30E CBS

Alabama (5-0, 4-1 ATS) continues to look like the most complete team in the country after cornering Kentucky 38-20 and can take another step closer to realizing just how good they could be. Quarterback Greg McElroy has surpassed all outsiders’ expectations and runs an efficient attack with ample weaponry. McElroy’s claim to fame before this season was sitting and waiting his turn to become starter. However, he’s earning other acclaim with 22-0 record as starter dating back to high school. To date, the defense has shutdown every offense, with its domineering defensive line and has incredible size and speed everywhere else. The Crimson Tide are 12-5-1 ATS on the road against ranked teams.

Mississippi’s hopes of being SEC West champs hinge on the outcome of this contest in Oxford. This means Jevan Snead has to forget about all the preseason hype that surrounded him and be the same player he was last season. The offense has had zero rhythm all season. Besides Snead’s accuracy issues, pass protection has been failing in obvious pass situations and the running game is more inconsistent than an episode of “Brothers”. The defense has carried Ole Miss (3-1, 2-1 ATS) and they will need another ginormous effort against the Crimson Tide. Mississippi is 9-3 ATS as home underdogs at The Grove vs ranked teams.

Alabama has won 13 of last 15 meetings, but the visitor is 2-7 ATS in last nine get-togethers. The Tide has won five in a row, including controversial contest two years ago in Oxford on shaky at best call that went their way late, that preserved 27-24 win as six-point road favorites. Bama has not covered the spread against the Rebels since 2004.

3DW Line – Alabama by 3.5

Wisconsin (+16, 47) at Ohio State 3:30E ABC-ESPN

This will be Wisconsin’s second straight road game and they are 29-14 ATS in road games in the first half of the season. QB Scott Tolzien continues to be efficient and re-juggled offensive line has kept his uniform clean. Tolzien has found different receivers, but when it’s time to move the Badgers into the end zone, tight end Garrett Graham is the preferred choice. On defense, Wisconsin (5-0, 2-2 ATS) is finding better combinations to slow opponents running game and rush the passer; nonetheless, the secondary still allows too many big plays. Wisky is 0-8 ATS versus excellent defensive teams allowing 285 or fewer yards per game over the last three seasons.

Since surrendering 27 points against the Navy’s option offense, Ohio State’s defense has conceded 32 total points in next four games. Normally this would draw huge media attention, but with the Buckeyes big game woes and the Big Ten’s fall in stature, the Kardashian’s attract more interest. Ohio State (4-1 SU&ATS) has turned into Coke Zero under coach Jim Tressel. They look and feel like the original, but are rather dull, leaving nobody all that excited. The defense recently pitched a pair of shutouts for the first time in 13 years, but few outside of Columbus could name a Buckeyes defensive starter. QB Terrelle Pryor was flashy recruit, but he’s been mostly effective in Tressel’s offense, lacking pizzazz. Ohio State is 3-7 ATS in the middle of a road sandwich.

Wisconsin is the only team to conquer Ohio State three times this decade and they are 6-3 ATS since 1996. No reason for the Buckeyes not to be focused since they will be large favorites in next three games and they are 17-4 ATS in home games versus offensive clubs averaging 425 or more yards per game.

3DW Line – Ohio State by 14.5

Oregon (-3.5, 46.5) at UCLA 3:30E ABC-GP

The word is out; don’t go to sleep on UCLA, as they stand 3-1 this season after Stanford conflict. The Bruins defense doesn’t have much depth, but their front-line players can stop the run and chase down frightened quarterbacks, ranking 20th nationally in total defense. Coach Rick Neuheisel isn’t certain if regular starting signal caller Kevin Prince’s broken jaw is sufficiently healed, but if not, senior Kevin Craft is an adequate replacement. Coach Rick would really like to get freshman Randall Carroll and Morrell Presley more involved in the passing game and utilize their speed for longer gains. The Bruins (3-1 ATS) are big and bad at home with 17-5 ATS Pac-10 record in the last five seasons.

Oregon (4-1, 3-2 ATS) followed up dismantling of California by rubbing out Washington State 52-6. This will be the Ducks first road game since losing to Boise State. Since dispirited effort in Idaho, the Oregon offense has averaged 40.7 points per game, with junior quarterback Jeremiah Masoli regaining his passing eye and touch. The big turnaround in confidence for Masoli has coincided with playing pitch and catch with tight end Ed Dickson. Redshirt freshman running back LaMichael James is quickly making people forget what’s his name (LeGarrette Blount). The Ducks make plenty of noise with a 9-2 spread record in their second road of the year.

Oregon would just as soon forget their last trip to the Rose Bowl, being shutout 16-0 as one-point favorites. The home team has had the higher number on the scoreboard in the last three meetings, but the visitor is 12-5 ATS the last 19 years. The Ducks play on the fake turf at home, nevertheless are 19-8 ATS playing on real grass during the regular season. The oddsmakers number might be key, since the underdog is 11-5 against the spread.

3DW Line – Oregon by 1

Michigan (+8, 47.5) at Iowa 8:00E ABC

Michigan (4-1, 3-2 ATS) ran out of gas at in-state rival Michigan State 26-20 in overtime and takes to the road a second straight time. One major difference in the Wolverines revival has been coach Rich Rodriquez’s ability to sell this team on his methods. Michigan is marginally more talented than a season ago, having more speed in key positions along with quarterback more suited to run the offense. However, this team enjoyed early success and came together. The Wolverines are averaging 34 points per game mostly behind QB Tate Forcier, thanks in part to offensive line punching holes in defenses. The Michigan stop unit has yet to stop an offense not in the MAC (ranked 91st) and lacks ability and presumably desire to raise their level of play. Ann Arbor’s finest are 2-6-1 the last few years as Big Ten road underdogs.

After completing non-conference slate with triumph against Arkansas State 24-21, the 5-0 Hawkeyes (3-1 ATS) return to Big Ten battles. This is homecoming weekend and if Iowa can win the next three weeks (at Wisconsin and at Michigan State), the conference crown could be decided quite possibly when they travel to Ohio State in mid-November. Iowa has won with defense and special teams this year. It’s been a foregone conclusion the defense will find a strategy to stop opposing offense (10th in scoring defense) and one aspect of the special teams has delivered weekly. The running game is in good hands with Brandon Wegher and Adam Robinson, but at some point, QB Ricky Stanzi is going to have to lead his team to victory. The Hawkeyes are 27-8 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards a carry.

Michigan arrives in Iowa City 7-1 ATS in the second of two straight road encounters. These teams don’t meet annually, but the Hawkeyes are 6-2-2 ATS in last 10 meetings.

3DW Line – Iowa by 9

It pays to have a great defense in college football

Dating back to Perry Mason and fast-forwarding to Denny Crane of Boston Legal, it’s always been an asset to have a good defense. That has also been the case in winning college football games, since we have always heard the mantra, “defense wins championships”. The question is does a top notch defense help the sports bettor win money?

Without a doubt, it is part of the winning portfolio and in many ways overlooked more than it should be by the average bettor. It’s been proven that a football game is broken down into three parts, with seven pieces within it. The breakdown is three on offense, three on defense and one for special teams. Great defensive teams provide a quandary of sorts for oddsmakers, compared to terrific offensive teams.

When the game starts, both teams fundamental goal is to score points and prevent the opposition from doing so, not exactly SportsCenter highlight material. The advantage an offense has there is no limit to the number of points they can score based on possessions or other areas like defensive touchdowns for scores and special teams finding ways to light the scoreboard. Teams with superior defenses cannot impact the score per se in the same manner since in football and all other major team sports; you can’t do better than zero.

Oddsmakers have the ability from public perception to add points to certain teams, especially when the team has offense that turn numbers like Vanna White changes letters. Teams that play tremendous defense don’t have the same appeal to sports bettors, unless they have potent offense. The other problem with great defense is they could pitch a shutout, but if their quarterback decides he likes throwing the pigskin to the other team as much as his own players, a 13-0 victory as a two-touchdown favorite will subtract from wagering account.

What should the sports bettor look for in a great defense? Like every lawyer, first you have to understand the laws. It rather simple to understand that if prevent the other team from scoring, your chances of winning are dramatically increased. You might be saying to yourself, Doug, I don’t need to read this article to know that. And for the most part I’d agree with except for the fact that college football generates billions of dollars, as does the wagering industry on football, yet the game in its most basic form is simply blocking and tackling. Do we know from week to week who is going to do that the best? I digress.

Currently, familiar names like Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, USC, Penn State and Ohio State are among the leaders in fewest points allowed. Two teams that are also among the top group are South Florida and Nebraska. At this juncture, it might be wise to be mildly skeptical about these two squads, as the only legitimate team USF faced was Florida State, though they did hold them to seven points. Let’s see how they do against Cincinnati and at Pittsburgh before we go all in on the Bulls. Nebraska has the right coach in Bo Pelini for defense, nevertheless, three home games against Sun Belt teams is not a good barometer.

Total defense is another good method to follow, but don’t buy in just yet. Teams like N.C. State, Connecticut and Arizona State dot this category. Each has had their turn against meager competition and done a fairly good job against comparable teams. Waiting it out another week won’t hurt to start building portfolio on these squads. Otherwise, stick with proven teams that restrict offenses.

Moving ahead, two other specific categories reflect a truer strength in this reporter’s often less than humble opinion, while still taking scheduling into consideration.

The YPPT or yards per point index is a wonderful gauge of defensive strength. This is based on the number of points the opposing team scores per 100 yards. Why this is superior to “points allowed” for example, take a look at this in-game situation. Say the Alabama offense is turnover-prone one day as six-point road favorites. They have three fumbles and interceptions in their territory and their opponent cashes them in for 17 points, gaining 80 total yards. The entire rest of the contest, Bama’s opposition moves the ball for just another 120 total yards and no points. The Crimson Tide’s offense goes on to score 24 points and wins 24-17, covering the spread. In just looking at points surrendered, it looks like the Crimson Tide’s opponent that day did fairly well against them, yet in fact they held them in-check except for their own miscues and ended up with good day based statistics. In reviewing these numbers, the Sooners, Gators and Trojans are all camped out here, but others maybe not on everyone’s radar appear. Iowa proved just how strong they are defensively in shutting down Penn State. Ole Miss is ranked sixth in the category and was supposed to have strong offensive team; however it has been the defense that has carried them. If quarterback Jevan Snead comes around, the Rebels could roll when it comes to covering spreads.

The best situation to wager on a quality defensive club is when they are underdog. The Hawkeyes win at Penn State was ideal way to consider for wager. Their defense was able to absorb quick blow by the Nittany Lions and gradually took over the game, rendering the Jo Pa’s with no working options once they trailed in the game. Stellar defensive squads catching points are always worth a look.

The final area to examine is yards per play (YPP) allowed. This speaks to the constant domination of a defense. Any team allowing 4.1 yards per play or less is going to be difficult to sustain a drive against. Most teams will average about 12 possessions per contest and roughly have to travel 60-70 yards to score touchdowns. To beat a controlling defensive team like this (turnovers the unknown variable), an offense would have to put together three separate drives of 13 or more plays to score three touchdowns to give themselves an opportunity to win. Can it be done, of course it can, but betting on it consistently is like playing a six-team parlay weekly, expecting to win.

Not to be redundant, but teams coached by Bob Stoops, Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, Mack Brown and Nick Saban are listed again, with a few you might not have thought of. North Carolina, Oregon, TCU and Mississippi have all played representative slates and have held opposing offensives to low numbers on yardage manufactured per play.

In the end, if you are going to have to take on Law and Order, you would want to have Alan Shore of Crane, Pool and Schmidt, backing you up with his slick defensive moves to make you a winner.