Getting an early start for Thursday

Those 3-0 days certainly work, so let’s go after another with our record rolling at 39-20 in last 59 plays. The Best System is flat out awesome at 88.2 percent. Ever wonder how the Yankees perform off a shutout, we have it with today’s Top Trend. Slick Rick is burning up the books and has another Free Play Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- Place me in the corner with those that believed the Cleveland Cavaliers were going to win the NBA championship. Everything seemed right this time, improved scoring, better perimeter players on defense and more guys with size in the paint to combat the Orlando’s and Lakers of the world.

Instead we’ve seen 3 ½ lousy (two just pathetic at home) performances by LeBron James and the Cavs against Boston in the conference semi-finals and this team is starting to show the same amount of pride as Atlanta, not a club that supposedly aspires to be NBA champs.

Let’s start with LeBron, how bad is his elbow? While many sportswriters are piling on James like Tiger Woods these days, something has to be wrong. How else would you explain a superstar that averages 20.8 shot per game for his career would have three games below that figure this time of year?

My sense is LeBron doesn’t trust his teammates, despite what most presumed were good moves to improve Cleveland, and there is no proof of it right now. James post-game comments about Boston’s “Big Three coming thru” might have been a telling remark about the fact he honestly believes he doesn’t have the right teammates that can step up and help him.

While James is thought to be unselfish teammate, willing to pass the ball instead of taking more shots himself, you do see a hint of Kobe “I’ll show them” if his teammates are not performing at his level.

I actually like James, but even I’m wondering if he has that killer instinct all the great ones have. When Kobe Bryant senses victory, he’s taking the ball and looks for his shot and if he ends up being covered, his teammates better be ready to catch the pass and score.

Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas and Tim Duncan would do whatever it took to win a championship. Is LeBron committed to that goal or is being the most marketable player enough for him?

Cleveland’s guards continue to be a non-factor on both ends of the floor. They don’t make shots, their perimeter defense is non-existent and I swear I hear “Beep Beep” on my HD sound when Rajon Rondo decides to go by a Cavaliers defender.

Coach Mike Brown is also having terrible playoffs. Doc Rivers looks like a future Hall of Famer with his adjustments compared to Brown’s and though these are professional basketball players, Cleveland has seldom played with any urgency, which is part of a coach’s job description, have your players ready to play.

The Cavaliers might still win the series, but is always the case in the NBA playoffs, you need two dependable scorers and third to emerge game to game if you expect to win. If James doesn’t score than who picks up the slack?

I’ll be holding onto my money thinking about backing the Cavs and really don’t see Cleveland winning two games over Boston at this juncture.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs like Houston with a money line of +175 to +250, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This brilliant system is 53-7, 88.2 percent the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The New York Yankees are 19-3 after shutting out their opponent over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 13-2 the last five days in MLB and rides the Rangers this afternoon.

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Making it a December to remember

Somebody in this country has been less affected by the recession, as Lexus is still trotting out those car commercials encouraging those that have the financial means to stay above the mayhem and fork over the cash for a luxury car. While that might be out of most working stiffs price range, we as NFL sports bettors can still at least add to the nest egg when it comes down to the last three weeks of the NFL season. (Used the picture of Detroit since they fit two systems listed in this article this week)

One of the realities every sports bettor must face at the end of another season is the dreaded “this team has to win”. In wagering talk, if ever there was a situation set up for a person to be – trapped - it is following that line of thinking.

There is no doubt teams have to win to make the playoffs, however many characteristics can prevent them from doing so. Among them is pressure, not playing well at the end of the season, injuries or a care-free opponent who has nothing to lose. All of these end up being reasons for failure instead of success.

Instead of looking at situations that appear to be favorable, go instead with ones that are. December is a cold, cruel month, (as many of you in the northern part of the United States recently felt), yet there are circumstances that will warm your heart and heat up your wagering account with a little work and determination.

In December, Play On a home underdog when both teams scored 10 or fewer points in previous contest.

Reason: With each team off a less than satisfactory offense performance, the home team has the added benefit of playing before the home fans. The oddsmakers are also telling us the visiting team is the better club, thus we have a motivated team at home off a lousy offensive performance. (13-5 ATS L23Y)

In December, Play Against a home favorite of three or less when both teams are coming off a loss.

Reason: By now all the teams fighting for the playoffs are established. Any team working to play in the postseason would at least warrant a standard NFL home field advantage of three points. If not, the oddsmaker is suggesting the home team is not worthy of supporting the conventional figure associated with home teams and is likely beatable. Seems like a good spot to take the points and consider the money line on the visitor. (41-13-1 ATS L18Y)

In December, Play On a home team off a SU home win if they have at least one extra day of rest.

Reason: At this time of year, every player that has played a full campaign is beat-up and has lots of aches and pains. Being able to play consecutive home games is a real value and any additional rest vs. opponent that is also weary and having to travel is a substantial edge. (22-10-1 ATS L19Y)

In December, Play Against any away favorite that scored 28 or more points in last outing.

Reason: Following the logic here, the public tends to follow the results of the previous game instead of looking at a body of work and more specifically the last three or four games teams have played. Unless a team is an offensive juggernaut, scoring four or more touchdowns is a good day at the office. Place this team in the role of road chalk off a solid scoring game, especially if that is six or more points better than their season average and we have the numbers in our favor. (55-30 ATS L11Y and 15-6 ATS the last three years)

In the final four weeks of the season, play on a non-conference home team that won outright as an away underdog.

Reason: All victories accumulated at the end of the season are earned, especially on the road. Winning in the visiting uniforms is a real boost for the home team coming into next contest. The road team circumstances could be varied. Winning or losing a non-conference game may not affect standings, especially if they have a division game or two left on the schedule. Another factor is unfamiliarity, as these teams are meeting every four years and if the visiting squad has division encounter on tap, can the bettor be assured of top effort, unlikely. (38-16 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a non-conference home favorite off a division win of 14 or more points, in the last month of the season.

Reason: Similar to last situation, this system is about putting in a satisfying performance and building momentum. The home team did a number on division foe and non-conference games tend to be looser because teams not knowing opponents’ tendencies as much, due to not playing them as frequently. Backing the home favorite in this spot has been a sound investment. (12-4, ATS L15Y)

Play Against a double digit road favorite facing a division rival in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: No matter the disparity in talent, beating a division companion by 10 or more points on the road is difficult any time of the year. This is further enhanced since the oddsmakers are telling us the road team is likely in the playoff hunt and the home team is not. For the home underdog, this might be the last game on the schedule to really get fired up about and they will have the support of those in attendance and can take pride in potentially damaging their rival’s postseason plans. Pittsburgh and New Orleans were both victims in Week 14. (16-5-1 ATS L11Y)

Play On a non-division home underdog if they allowed 175 or more yards rushing in previous game in the last month of the year.

Reason: All coaches try and stay away from placing more emphasis on one game more than another, since the players understand the state of affairs they are dealing with. The head coach and the defensive coordinator are going to be scathing in their comments in the film room about their defense that was pushed around, seemingly from lack of effort and execution in last outing. After listening all week to coaches complain about performing with a sense of urgency, the reportedly inferior home dog plays at or beyond capabilities versus foe not used to facing them. (29-13 ATS, L20Y)

Play On a division home underdog off a home loss in the last four weeks of the season.

Reason: With teams playing just six division games a season, it’s not hard to be motivated for a rivalry conflict, particularly if the public perception is the home squad is the lesser team and needs points to cover a spread. This position is further enhanced off a disappointing home loss that left a bad taste in the team’s collective mouths. A win over division partner is great mouthwash late in the year. Cleveland and Atlanta both covered this past week. (16-5 ATS, L20Y)

Browns try to add to Pittsburgh's problems

Already blanked at home by a division rival in prime time, the Browns get another crack to show the nation how hopeless they are when they host Pittsburgh in a Thursday night tilt on the NFL Network. Cleveland (1-11, 6-6 ATS), a 16-0 loser at home to Baltimore on Monday night in Week 10, has dropped 12 straight against the Steelers (3-9 ATS) and are 1-18 and 6-11-2 ATS against Pittsburgh, including its only playoff game in the past decade.

Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin vowed to “unleash hell in December” after the loss to the Ravens in Week 12 and the Oakland Raiders channeled former AC/DC front man Bon Scott and found out “Hell ain’t a bad place to be” in stunning 27-24 road upset as 15-point underdogs.

Pittsburgh (4-8 ATS) is in great danger of missing the playoffs at 6-6 and facing three difficult remaining games, the defending champs are in a must-win state. That shouldn’t be a concern this week, as win-often is something the Steelers have done in Cleveland, eight straight times while going 4-2-2 ATS.

Coach Tomlin has seen enough. "We can't stay status quo in terms of how we're approaching this and expect the pattern of behavior or outcome to change," Tomlin said. "That's unrealistic. That's hoping. This is not a hope business." Expect to see changes in the secondary, especially at cornerback, where the Steelers have been beaten. All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu will likely miss his fourth straight game with a knee problem and rookie receiver Mike Wallace will start if Hines Wards as presumed can’t go with a bad hamstring. The Steelers are 21-9-2 ATS as division road team.

The Steelers took a messy first meeting with the Browns, 27-14, at Heinz Field behind 417 yards passing from Ben Roethlisberger. The Week 6 game featured eight turnovers—four by each team—but that’s about the only area the statistics were even. The Steelers outgained the Browns 543-197, enjoyed a 28-12 difference in first downs and held the ball for almost 37 minutes.

That victory for the defending Super Bowl champs was their third during a five-game winning streak, but a rough three-game stretch followed and put them squarely on the playoff bubble. Pittsburgh’s loss in Kansas City in Week 11 was particularly disturbing because it rolled up 233 more yards than the Chiefs and saw Roethlisberger wobble off the field in overtime with a concussion that kept him out of a key showdown at Baltimore, which also ended with a defeat in overtime.

The Steelers were in a similar position in 2005 when they won their last four regular-season games to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, then went on to win three times on the road in the postseason and beat Seattle in the Super Bowl. Repeating that accomplishment doesn’t seem likely, though it’s entirely possible they’ll be favored to win each of their remaining games. After this trip to the Dawg Pound they play Green Bay and Baltimore at home before closing at Miami. Coming into the season, the Steelers were 7-2 ATS as road favorite off a SU loss; however they have failed to win or cover in two attempts in 2009.

The Browns still are not winning, nevertheless positive signs are emerging. They have beaten the oddsmakers three consecutive times, as Brady Quinn has played more than adequate football, throwing for over 255 yards in two of last three games and hasn’t thrown an interception in that time. Cleveland is 10-4 ATS at home off a home game.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Pittsburgh as 10-point favorites; however, they are just 2-6 ATS in last eight double-digit favorite roles under Tomlin, following the loss to the Raiders Sunday, including 0-4 against the number this season.

Cleveland has won just one of its last dozen games vs. AFC North foes (4-8 ATS) and is trying to snap a 10-game home losing streak. They are 2-7-1 ATS at home since unthinkable Monday night 35-14 upset of the then defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. After last week’s 30-23 loss to San Diego, the Brownies are 23-12-1 ATS after scoring 23 or more points.

Bettors have hit the total hard, taking it from opening 37.5 to 33. Pittsburgh is 13-4 UNDER in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite and Cleveland is 7-13-1UNDER as a division home dawg.

It will be the usual 8:20 Eastern starting time for this AFC North matchup on the NFL Network, with the UNDER 7-0 on Thursday’s this season.

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

The Cleveland Browns are so ugly......

Even the biggest of Browns fans is fed up. “Dawg Pound Mike,” whose real name is Mike Randall, could have an impact Monday night than anyone in uniform. The longtime season-ticket holder in the front row of the rowdy end zone bleacher section is encouraging fans to stay away from their seats for the opening kickoff of this game against Baltimore to send a message to owner Randy Lerner about the sad state of the franchise.

Cleveland is 1-7 (3-5 ATS) and is invoking sarcastic humor from long time comedians of the past like Henny Youngman and Rodney Dangerfield. The Browns’ quarterbacks have been so bad they went massage parlor and found out it was self service.

Cleveland has scored only five offensive touchdowns in 2009, and quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn have combined for three touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. Even Josh Cribbs, the team’s most spectacular player, has been picked off. The Browns are dead last in passing offense at 121.5 yards per game and average 4.2 yards per pass attempt. Cleveland is 20-51 ATS when they gain five or less net passing yards an attempt.

The Browns have had better than two weeks to get ready for this game and the only news out of Cleveland is turmoil. Eric Mangini’s players think he’s more Atilla the Hun than their football coach. Internet reports of extremely long practices and Mangini being too heavy handed, has talk of Mutiny on Lake Erie. Mangini is looking more like some of the evil characters on the “Sopranos”, of which he made a guest appearance back when everything was much rosier as coach of the Jets.

The Browns are looking to snap a six-game losing streak vs. divisional foes, but they are 2-1 ATS in that scenario thus far. The Cleveland fans think there team is playing like dogs and have started calling the team “Egypt”, because they leave a pyramid after each game. (Thanks, Rodney)

DiamondSportsbook.com has Baltimore as 11-point favorites with total of 39. The Ravens are presumed to win and Monday night road teams as chalk of nine or more are 11-5 ATS in most recent outings. The favorite has been the way to go in Cleveland’s post-bye week games, 7-1 ATS in last eight contests. However, the Ravens have struggled in Cleveland of late, going just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in five previous visits. Baltimore (4-4, 5-3 ATS) has lost four of last five, nevertheless is 15-7-1 ATS after losing as a favorite, which happened in Cincinnati last week.

The Cleveland Browns wives joined a bridge club, they jump off next Tuesday.

Baltimore covers if they change it up a bit. Cleveland is expected to make lots of miscues, thus go no-huddle and take the game to them. Most bad teams only need a reason to quit playing, give them one by having Joe Flacco flinging the ball around and opening up the field for Ray Rice. This is the perfect opponent to blitz like mad-men since Browns receivers are useless in creating separation. In truth, the Ravens just have to play Baltimore football, which should be good enough.

Cleveland covers if Brady Quinn can lead the Browns offense to early scores. Cleveland is devoid of any real game-breakers, thus must move the chains and be mistake-free, something they have been unable to do. Quinn needs to be accurate with his throws, since the Baltimore corners are nothing special. Hopefully the Browns coaching staff added Wildcat to their offense with the time off, giving their one true playmaker Cribbs a chance to at least try and make something happen. If the Brownies were playing attention on Sunday, a number of bad teams gave great effort and either almost won or did win against better teams by playing loose, with nothing to lose, why not do the same.

Monday Night System – Play Against home team off a bye hosting a division foe. (11-2 ATS, L16Y)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Are you ready for some NFL football?

A super 4-0 Saturday in college football, let’s see if we can follow up the opening weekend of the NFL with similar results. There are no outstanding ATS systems in the NFL today; however there is a convincing money line play at 28-4 that is not overpriced. The Top Trend is flat dead perfect over the last nine years and Slick Rick’s Free play has arrived. Good Luck

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST underdogs like Cleveland vs. the money line (note- money line not the spread) in non-conference games, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. Over the last decade this system is 28-4, 87.5 percent and the ML is reasonable at -210.

Free Football Trend -2) The previous year’s Super Bowl losers are on 0-9 ATS run, which suggests to Play Against Arizona.

Free Football Pick -3) Slick Rick picked the Packers at -3 the other day and has told me to tell you to not worry about the -4.5.

Guaranteed NFL Plays here at 3Daily Winners.

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Saturday Preseason Football

It is a large slate of action in Week 3 of the NFL preseason and every game has meaning to the players trying to make the team and coaches trying to be ready for the regular season. Here is a look at each game with key wagering information for each contest.

San Diego at Atlanta

This is will be the CBS game starting at 8:00 Eastern, with running back Michael Turner going against his old teammates from San Diego. Atlanta would be 2-0 if the backups had not surrendered lead late at Detroit in 27-26 loss. Quarterback Matt Ryan looks like we will avoid a sophomore slump, playing extremely well in limited action. The Falcons are 2.5-point favorites at Bookmaker.com with total of 42 and are 21-8 ATS after playing their last game on the road.

It’s been a different preseason for San Diego, as LaDainian Tomlinson has actually done something besides stand on the sidelines like in years past. L.T. isn’t being overworked mind you with eight carries and a couple of pass catches, however that is way more activity than he’s seen in recent years as he looks to rebound from injury. Even with last week’s 17-6 upset win in Arizona as 1.5-point underdogs, coach Norn Turner teams are 3-6 ATS as dogs or Pick.

Indianapolis at Detroit

Indianapolis may have rotten reputation as preseason team (6-18, 9-14-1 ATS), but Detroit is even less thought of as a team of any kind. In this NFL Network matinee, the Lions have gone from 1.5-point favorites to three-point underdogs. This is the dress rehearsal week for the regular season and the Colts are 6-1 ATS and Detroit is 2-10 SU and ATS in the next to last exhibition game.

New Orleans at Oakland

Another afternoon affair means another flip of the favorites, this time on the Left Coast. The always controversial Oakland Raiders have covered a pair of contests in sporting .500 record, however the wagering public isn’t sold this team that opened as Pick and fell to +2.5-points, is equipped to handle New Orleans who has won both contests by average of 17 points. The Saints are 23-10 ATS in August road games and 16-5 ATS in the visiting uniforms with six or less days rest.

Tennessee at Cleveland

Coach Eric Mangini will take one more look at Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn and decide who will be his starting quarterback in Cleveland, at least for game one. The Browns blew-up Detroit last week 27-10, but are 1-9 ATS after a win by 10 or more points. Tennessee played bored last Friday at Dallas, having played one more preseason contest thanks to Hall of Fame encounter. The Titans are two-point dogs, nonetheless are 11-1 ATS vs. opponent off a win and cover.

Buffalo at Pittsburgh

Buffalo is 1-2 and 1-1-1 ATS and this week have to solve turnover issues that are plaguing them, with 11 miscues already. Trent Edwards could use Terrell Owens, who is expected to miss another game with sprained toe. The Bills are six-point underdogs with total of 36, yet if they can score 15-21 points, they are 12-2 ATS on the road. Ben Roethlisberger was held out last week, but is presumed ready for action. Pittsburgh is 10-15 ATS in third preseason game and is 1-3 and 0-4 ATS since 2005.

Baltimore at Carolina

Carolina has yet to scratch in the win column in 2009, mostly due to run defense surrendering 140 yards a game. They’ll try and shore this area up this week, but it will be without linebacker Jon Beason, who strained his MCL, and who will be held out at least until regular season starts. Baltimore has been efficient 2-0 (1-1 ATS), looking like playoff contender again. Watch the total here (36) with Panthers on 6-0 OVER run and Ravens 14-4 UNDER off one or more straight Overs.

San Francisco at Dallas

For football fans, this encounter is a quick trip down memory lane of classic matchups these teams played in the 1980’s and 90’s. This won’t be the case today, with Dallas a seven-point favorite and total of 38. The 49ers named Shaun Hill as starting quarterback, but he and former No.1 pick Alex Smith might both be on the sidelines with injury. Say hello to Damon Huard and rookie Nate Davis for San Francisco who has two wins without a cover. The Cowboys played with purpose last in routing Tennessee 30-10, however is dastardly 1-9 ATS at home if opponent is off two SU wins.

Seattle at Kansas City

These former AFC division partners will meet again in Kansas City. Matt Hasselbeck looks all the way back from injured back of a year ago. Hasselbeck has the fastball back in repertoire and better accuracy on sideline routes. The Seahawks may be catching 2.5-points, however are 8-0 ATS in last eight August tries and 9-1 ATS since 2007. Kansas City has played like a team installing new offensive and defensive systems and is just the opposite of Seattle, posting 1-9 ATS mark the last three years.

N.Y. Jets vs N.Y. Giants

The Giants are the designated home team, which means they get the bigger locker room in bragging rights matchup. The G-Men have been hit hard on the defensive side of the ball with injuries, yet most Giants fans are more concerned if Eli Manning will mesh with wide receiver group quickly. The New York football Giants are 9-21 ATS in the last two weeks of the preseason. Rookie Mark Sanchez has enjoyed the bright lights of New York thus far, but now productivity will be his savior as Jets QB. Sanchez appeared a trifle overwhelmed by Baltimore’s defense last week and has to remain composed. Gang Green is 13-3-1 ATS in this Big Apple battle, on the receiving end of three points.

Looking for a NFL Week 2 Upset Saturday?

The NFL preseason is even more unpredictable than the regular season, as incentives, coaching decisions and lack of continuity all play a larger role in August football. If one follows this line of thinking, this should suggest taking the points with the underdog is not a bad option, especially given the right circumstances. Here is a look at several potential upsets that could be in play on Saturday.

Oakland at San Francisco

Around the Oakland practice field this week, head coach Tom Cable heard the chant “Cable, Bumaye” - a reference to the “Ali, Bumaye” during the 1974 “Rumble In The Jungle” heavyweight fight between Muhammad Ali and George Foreman. The chant loosely translates to “Cable kill him”. This refers to reports of coach Cable clobbering assistant coach Randy Hanson, a reported Al Davis snitch.

Along with the usual absurdness that follows the Raiders, they have been running scrimmages recently against Bay Area partner San Francisco and getting their lunch and dinner handed to them. The 49ers’ players have been mocking them, which should lend itself to some professional pride by Oakland as three-point underdogs at Bookmaker.com. If nothing else, maybe the Niners will be too satisfied.

Carolina at Miami

Carolina committed a sloppy five turnovers in losing to the Giants on Monday night and will seek to tighten things down this week. Quarterback Jake Delhomme will see more action and the Panthers are a solid 8-4 ATS as dogs under coach John Fox and 6-1 SU & ATS against the AFC. Miami is a three-point home favorite and they are 16-24-3 against the spread when the favored squad.

Detroit at Cleveland

Both teams have a lot to prove this upcoming season, however Detroit has a greater sense of urgency after a winless regular season. Most people know the Lions were 4-0 (3-0-1 ATS) last preseason, before going on to make dubious history. Nevertheless, the circumstances are different as Detroit has new coaches and a real desire to bury the past. Cleveland looked absurdly pathetic in totaling 191 yards of offense against Green Bay in 17-0 loss. The Browns quarterback battle looks like it could have winner by default instead of someone earning the job. The Browns are 1-5 ATS against the NFC and are on 0-5 SU and ATS roll in the preseason. The Lions are catching 3.5-points.


San Diego at Arizona

Neither team played well in suffering defeat in first preseason games. San Diego threw for 329 yards last week, but had -2 turnover difference in losing 20-14 to Seattle as three-point favorites. The Chargers could be in a great situation since they are 9-1 ATS off a home loss. San Diego hits a rather potent system that states to Play On underdogs or pick, off an upset loss as a favorite, this week of the preseason. (28-8 ATS)

New Orleans at Houston

Both the Saints and Texans were winners last week. Houston was actually outgained by Kansas City by 27 yards, however was +3 in turnover margin. Matt Schaub was superb 7 for 7 in opener; however behind him Houston is thin at quarterback. Rex Grossman was presumed backup, but he injured hamstring and is out. That leaves Dan Orlovsky and Alex Brink to put up points for the Texans who are oddly 3-2-3 ATS at home. New Orleans has Drew Brees and experienced Mark Brunell to turn to and the Saints are 24-10 ATS in road games.

NFL quarterback controversy’s

Competition is healthy right? When someone has to compete, they tend to extend more effort and become better at what they do. But what happens when say two mediocre people go head to head? Does it really benefit a company or organization having to pick the best of an average pairing? And what about the sports bettor, he’s left to analyze the merits of mediocrity.

In the NFL, this happens a lot. The most telling position is under center with the quarterback. In studying the list of 32 NFL teams, it is good business to find the quarterback situations that are up for grabs and give strong consideration to playing Under on futures wagers for team totals.

Why you ask, it allows the old professional football proverb – If you have more than one quarterback, you have none.

The Oakland Raiders drafted JaMarcus Russell No.1 two years ago and to call his progress S L O W would be doing injustice to the word itself. Talent-wise the former LSU quarterback can make all the throws, however work habits, dedication, decision-making and staying in shape were all questions marks when he was drafted and remain today. The Oakland camp is so unsure if he is the right person for the job, they’ve brought in 39-year old Jeff Garcia.

Reports have the Raiders organization thinking Russell can learn from Garcia’s work ethic and understand what it takes to play in this league. One problem, Garcia is a curmudgeon, he has no interest in developing Russell, he wants to be the starting quarterback. If Garcia believes he has earned the job in camp (which he always does) and if coach Tom Cable (with Al Davis calling every 10 seconds) decides Russell is his guy to start the season, Garcia’s past suggests a malcontent who isn’t afraid to speak his mind. This sets up combustible situation for a franchise who makes the Kardashian’s seem normal. Sportsbook.com has Da Raaaiders at 5.5 for season wins, but if Russell fails or Garcia starts seeing the ghosts of linemen chasing him like last season, they will fall short of that total in 2009.

New Tampa Bay head coach Raheem Morris was a big fan Josh Freeman at Kansas State and picked him in first round as long term quarterback solution. While most experts considered Freeman a project, he quickly moved up in the eyes of those in the Buccaneers organization with sharp workouts in mini-camps and OTA’s. Freeman was helped significantly competing with Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich.

Morris can’t be milquetoast in making a decision. His options are more limited than he believes and nobody thinks Freeman is as prepared as Matt Ryan for quarterback duty to start the season. The smart thing to do is start McCown and let Freeman learn and make change at midseason if necessary, with veteran Leftwich in the bullpen. Oddsmakers have pegged the Bucs for 6.5 wins after two nine win campaigns, which makes good sense.

Sweeping changes were made in Cleveland, nevertheless, sports talk radio and Browns blogs are still in debate who should be starting quarterback, Derrick Anderson or Brady Quinn. New head man Eric Mangini’s first true decision as coach will be picking one of the two. No matter who he chooses, a large bucketful of support will be for the player that lost, especially if the winner fails to live up to expectations.

The real issue here is ability. Quinn is local guy, but does not possess strong arm and accuracy isn’t his strong point. He can pick up first downs with his legs and likes to throw to tight end in tough spots. His true value is incomplete due to lack of playing and injury. Anderson is neither as good as he played in 2007 nor as awful as he looked last season. He’s like a hot fudge sundae, hot and cold, and definitely turnover-prone. Mangini needs to take a stand with one and live with it, especially in first season as coach and worry about the future later. Bettors have to do the same with Browns listed at 6.5 wins for 2009.

Of course the craziest quarterback controversy isn’t even one and might not ever be one, yet has the juiciest story. Brett Favre will be a Minnesota Viking if his arm is sound and Sage Rosenfels will wonder how he was blindsided. Even more so than Garcia, Favre isn’t putting on a purple and white uniform to wear a headset. He signs; he expects to start, even if he plays the “I just want a chance to compete” card. Except for 2007, Favre has seen a noticeable deterioration in his skill to throw the medium-deep pass (unless it’s a slant) or long pass over the last four years.

Rosenfels sagged as starter for Houston last season, being too much a risk-taker when not needed. Tarvais Jackson has had his chances and fumbled his opportunities to take the Vikings-mantle by the horns and will have to move on to have real shot at starting again. Though Minnesota fans are mildly excited about Favre coming after seeing him beat their team all these years, be careful for what you wish with a quarterback who turns 40 in October. Minnesota total of nine wins could go south if No. 4 fails to impress.

Several other teams don’t have specific issues at the field general position; however they do not have answers necessarily.

Is Trent Edwards really what Buffalo needs at quarterback? He played the role of Indian-giver in 2008. He made the coaches very comfortable in the first half of the season making him the starter and gave it all back with a repulsive second half. Terrell Owens can help, if Edwards can hit the target. Are the Bills capable of beating 7.5 wins set by oddsmakers, after a trio of seven win seasons?

Also in the AFC East, the Jets have to decide on Kellen Clemens, who has never really impressed or draft pick Mark Sanchez to beat a spot of seven wins.

Tennessee has total of nine W’s set on them. Can Kerry Collins continue to be a winner and if not, is Vince Young ready to resume career and become whom the Titans originally believed they had.

Matt Hasselbeck is the starter in Seattle and he’s become increasingly more injury-prone with advancing age. Will new coach Jim Mora have quick hook if Hasselbeck flounders and go with more athletic Seneca Wallace as Seahawks look to reclaim NFC West?

Shaun Hill has 7-3 record as San Francisco starter the last two years, which he earned in part because he had a better feel for Mike Martz offense. That offense has been scrapped with his departure. Hill is tough, with strong pocket presence and a good decision-maker. Word out of the Bay Area is he has teammates respect, but the 2005 top selection Alex Smith is hell-bent on proving he’s not a bust. Smith took a huge pay cut to stay with Niners (obviously nobody called) and believes his mended wing and more traditional offense is better suited to have him be leader of 49ers and pass seven win total placed on them.

With this much acrimony floating around this many different NFL teams, it is hard to make a case any of the teams are worthy of an Over play before the season starts.

MNF in Buffalo has Two Quarterbacks who can wing it

As far as Mr. Quinn’s long anticipated first game at quarterback in the NFL, Brady earned an ‘A’ for the Browns last Thursday night but the rest of the bunch got a failing grade as Cleveland (3-6, 5-4 ATS) slipped further out of playoff contention with a crippling 34-30 loss to visiting Denver.

The Browns second collapse in five days was no fault of Quinn, who completed 23 of 35 passes for 239 yards and two touchdowns and no turnovers. Both scoring tosses went to tight end Kellen Winslow, who had 11 catches for 111 yards. Cleveland also had a season-high 160 yards rushing; however, its defense was torched by Jay Cutler and allowed 564 total yards—the second-most produced in Broncos history. Cleveland is 10-2 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last three seasons.

Barring injury, there’s no turning back for the Browns. Quinn’s the starter; Derek Anderson’s the backup and likely trade bait during the off-season. Sooner or later it had to happen, and the last straw came in Week 9 against Baltimore when Anderson threw an ill-advised, game-sealing interception that Terrell Suggs brought back for a touchdown.

In Buffalo, Quinn will face a defense that’s allowed only eight passing touchdowns in nine games. But the Bills, 5-4 (4-5 ATS) after last week’s 20-10 loss at New England and mired in a three-game funk, are having trouble getting to the quarterback (14 sacks) and forcing turnovers (12). The Bills are 14-2 ATS after playing the Patriots.

Buffalo has only one win and cover since September and they’ve cracked 20 points just once during the same span. Many fans in Buffalo are lobbying for more carries for running back Marshawn Lynch, who has yet to surpass 100 yards in a game in 2008 after doing so three times in 13 starts as a rookie. However, he does have six touchdowns for a team that 11-1 in November as home favorite versus a non-division team.

Last year’s meeting between these teams was a classic old school viewing. Played in a blizzard in Cleveland, the Browns won 8-0 on two Phil Dawson field goals and a safety. Winds gusted to 40 miles per hour, and Anderson and Trent Edwards combined to complete 22 of 57 passes (38.6 percent) but neither turned the ball over. The victory gave the Browns an 8-5 lead in the all-time regular-season series.

Bookmaker.com has Buffalo as five-point favorite with a total of 41.5. The Bills are 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record the last two years. A sharp contrast in totals trends is noted for this Monday night affair. Cleveland is 8-1 OVER after allowing 30 points or more last game and coach Dick Jauron’s squad is 6-0 UNDER after two or more consecutive losses against the spread since 2006.

Cleveland covers if they change up a little more this week, being more aggressive in setting up passing game with Quinn and letting Jamal Lewis pound away up the gut later in the game. The former Fighting Irish star showed good poise in throwing short and medium routes and should take shots deep to Braylon (concrete hands) Edwards. Defensive coordinator Mel Tucker has to be wiser to not expose his cornerbacks like last week, since they lack confidence and can be beaten. The Browns are 22-11 ATS after one or more consecutive spread losses.

Buffalo covers by playing the right opponent at the right time. The Bills have rushed for a sliver over 80 yards in losing four of five. The Browns surrender 145 yards on the ground, making this the right moment for Buffalo to get running game back in order. It’s becoming more obvious Trent Edwards, like most quarterbacks does better with good ground attack and is not nearly as comfortable having to play passer all game. Run the pigskin against weak Cleveland run defense and throw shorter passes to rebuild Edwards confidence. Can Quinn chuck the ball around the gridiron, find out be taking away the Browns running game. The Bills are 19-7 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

This week’s Monday night system is to Play Against any road underdog that has failed to cover the spread in last two games. This means voting against the Browns, with this system 20-8 ATS, 71.4 percent and racking up earlier win against Denver when they lost to New England 41-7.

WILD, WILD NFL

WildCat. WildHog. WildThing.

Call it anything you want, but some form of the WildWhatever offense has stampeded onto a playing field near you.

This latest NFL trend is confusing the defenses and entertaining the masses. The unorthodox offensive scheme, referred to by most as the WildCat offense or formation, is somewhat of a rarity to catch with only 10 to 15 of these plays being called in a given week.

I don't know the exact position terminology and it would probably get confusing so I'm just going to breakdown this formation with simplicity. A skill player such as a running back or wide receiver lines up in shotgun formation. A second skill player player is positioned to that player's right or left. Once the ball is snapped to the player directly behind center he has three options. Run the ball, hand the ball off to his teammate or throw the ball.

You may have seen a version of this offense in college football called the spread offense. The same principles are applied here except that the quarterback is taken out of the backfield. On some occasions the quarterback is positioned as a wideout and in others he's watching from the sidelines.

The primary advantage of utilizing this formation is that instead of playing with 10 offensive players versus 11 defensive players when the quarterback is on the field, the offense can operate on an even level with 11 on 11 in personnel terms. The element of surprise is also an edge as the defense has to be on its toes when this formation is presented.

The Miami Dolphins unleashed this ground-borne virus that is spreading throughout the league against New England in Week 3 of the season. They absolutely ran all over the Pats, combining backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to create 216 yards of offense and parlaying that success into a 38-13 victory. In Week 5 they made mincemeat of the San Diego Chargers, shredding them for 167 yards on 12 WildCat carries.

Bill Parcell's freshest Frankenstein is logging the most attempts of the Wildcat offense. Miami is averaging about five per game since its introduction and it has proved to be prolific - yielding eight of their 23 offensive touchdowns. And they are showing no signs of slowing down the game plan either. The 'Phins ran it on eight instances last week versus Seattle and six times in Sunday's defensive bout against Oakland.

Speaking of the Raiders, even with their porous offense they are able to get in on the fun and roll out the WildCat offense. After all, super-talented back Darren McFadden is no stranger to the atypical run game having executed a version of it when playing at Arkansas under head coach Houston Nutt. He and current Dallas Cowboys player Felix Jones used to make opposing defenses look clueless as they racked up hundreds of yards on the ground.

The Arkansas Razorbacks called it the WildHog in honor of their mascot. Nutt has since moved on to Ole Miss where they run a variation of the offense and have given it the moniker WildRebel.

The naming origins of this unique offensive explosion have been interesting to say the least. It is rumored that the Dolphins' labeling of the formation came from the Wildcats of West Genesee High School where Miami assistant coach Steve Bush once worked.

Last Monday against the 49ers Anquan Boldin became the first wide receiver to take a direct snap. Ken Wisenhunt and the Arizona Cardinals call this the Pahokee formation which was Boldin's hometown and high school in Florida.

Tonight we may see the Cleveland Browns bust out the Flash formation with Josh Cribbs taking the ball from center like he did last Thursday against the Broncos. Cribbs' alma mater is the Kent State Golden Flashes.

While the WildCat offense has been very productive, there have to be some problems with it or every team would use it, right? Maybe the availability and reliability of a skill player who can handle a snap and read a defense quickly poses a hindrance for some teams.

Or in the case of a wide receiver taking the snap, maybe some teams don't want their franchise player getting blown up by guys like Ray Lewis. I realize that Anquan Boldin is a big, physical receiver but he is not invincible. And what about the quarterback being used downfield as a blocker? You can bet defenses will be licking their chops to take a shot.

But there is no doubt teams are taking notice and are doing some experimenting. I don't have the luxury of the Elias Sports Bureau at my fingertips to check the stats but from my count a total of nine teams (Buccaneers, Jaguars, Falcons, Cardinals, Raiders, Dolphins, Jets, Browns, 49ers) have run some form of the WildCat offense.

It seems that better defenses will prevail against it, but will some mastermind come up with a way to completely shut down the WildCat offense?

I sure hope not. I hope it sticks around forever. It makes the running game more exciting and improves the overall entertainment of the game.

Scott Cooley offers his perspective as freelance writer and friend of 3Daily Winners.

College Football Wagering Answers

Nice job by the Left Coast Connection with two Free Winners on Friday with Nevada and Atlanta Hawks. Greg of the LLC has hit seven straight winners in college football, he has four plays riding today and gives us his best Bet. A pair of plays out of one College Football System that is 26-2, 92.9 percent. We revisit a Top Trend we used earlier this season, which is still 100 percent accurate. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points off a road win, when playing on a Saturday. This incredible system is 26-2 ATS (not a typo) 92.9 percent, including 2-0 this season. The qualifying teams are Kentucky and Northwestern.

Free Football Trend -2) Oklahoma State is 13-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game.

Free Football Selection -3) Greg has hit seven college football games in a row and is using South Carolina as his best play for Saturday.

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Thursday's Top Wagering Information

Officially a 1-2 day, though certain many of you got a push with San Antonio unless you wagered about 2.5 hours or less before game time. The Top System was a winner and delves into the latter season NFL games on Thursday night with an 82.3 percent system. Had never seen so many Left Coast Connection players be so wrong on a game like NIU/Ball State (count me among the fools) we’ll see what they have to offer. Today’s Top Trend has a dandy in the world of hockey. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites like the Cleveland Browns that off a home loss, in weeks 10 through 13. This system is 14-3 ATS, 82.3 percent the last three years, with average margin of victory 8.8 points a game.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Vancouver Canucks are 11-1 against the money line off a win by four or more goals.

Free Football Selection 3) – Greg of the LLC was the only guy from the group on Ball State last night and is playing Utah tonight. His logic consists of taking the pointspread and making it a neutral field matchup. Last night, the line showed him Ball State would have been 6.5 point favorite on a neutral field by the line (-9.5 minus 3 for home field = -6.5) and he had them as nine points better, plus the home field. Tonight using the same logic, Utah has a four point home advantage, meaning TCU is six points better than Utah (take away home field and add two points for spread) and he has TCU only three points better and Utah has home field edge.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.