Super Bowl XLIII- Who Covers and Why

Finally. That’s right, Sunday night at 6:28 Eastern time, the Super Bowl will start and all the rhetoric about Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm being jilted by the Pittsburgh organization, and the talk of the Steelers secondary having to face the greatest wide receiver ever to play the game in Larry Fitzgerald (That Rice guy used to be pretty good) will end. Now we can get down to the basics, blocking and tackling, who makes the best sight adjustments throughout the 60 minutes and who holds up under pressure. Here is a look at how each team wins and covers the spread. Pittsburgh gets to go first since they are the road team, called heads and will take the ball.

Pittsburgh wins and covers because…

They can play keep away, holding the ball for over 32 minutes during the regular season and almost 35 minutes in the playoffs. They have the ability to demoralize opponents, since offensive coordinator Bruce Arians won’t give up on the run and if Pittsburgh has success, they will just pound away until they break opposing team’s will.

Arizona DC Clancy Pendegrast will attack the Steelers offense with blitzes trying to get the ball out of Ben Roethlisberger’s hands, with the intent of forcing mistakes. The Steelers can counter this with draws, screens and utilizing tight end Heath Miller to move the chains. The goal of the Pittsburgh offense is to push, push and push the Cardinals and hit a few big plays with Willie Parker running the ball or deep shots to Santonio Holmes. Don’t be surprised if Nate Washington has bigger impact than Hines Ward in this big game.

If defense wins championships, Pittsburgh is perfectly situated to take home a record sixth Super Bowl trophy. The Steelers allowed 161.5 yards per game as the NFL’s top pass defense and Arizona has passed for 284.9 yards per game in 19 outings. That is a preposterous 122.4 yards difference comparing the strengths of the two teams. Even if Pittsburgh allows half the total of 61 yards, they have effectively taken away a large chunk of the Arizona attack. The idea with Fitzgerald is to not have him make big plays since he will we get his catches and limit the other receivers.

Dick LeBeau defense first needs to corral the Arizona running game. Though Kurt Warner is having a special season, he has gotten rattled this year and it usually happens early. Make Warner’s emotions work against him and pressure him with different looks. If Warner gets that eye-wided snarl on his face, the Steelers will be wearing the Super Bowl winners t-shirts and hats.

Arizona wins and covers because…

The defense is playing tough, assignment-oriented football. In every playoff game, the Arizona defense has not only stopped the run, they have done so with discipline to prevent big plays. Both Michael Turner and Brian Westbrook made defenders miss running the ball, but the Cardinals defenders maintained gap control and held them to minimal gains time and again. Keeping Parker boxed will force the Steelers to look for other alternatives.

The aforementioned Clancy Pendegrast has to be excited in viewing the tape of all the problems the Pittsburgh offensive linemen had with the Baltimore stunts and games up front, especially on the right side. Look for him to find out if they have corrected this issue, if not, Ben Roethlisberger can expect to see red shirts and white helmets in his line of vision and around him all day. Give a disrespected underdog a reason to play harder, they will.

Part of Arizona’s success in the postseason has been their ability to start and keep the pressure on their opponents. When teams trail in the playoffs, coaches feel a different sense of urgency because a loss means elimination. The Cardinals for the most part have been in control most of the three games. Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower have balanced the Redbirds offense, creating more opportunities in the passing game. Arizona is 9-0 SU and ATS if they out-rush the opposition this season.

The Cards offensive line has to be aware of linebacker James Harrison at all times. He has been the most disruptive individual defender in the NFL this year. Warner has to keep his cool and might be forced to look to receivers Steve Breaston and even Jereme Urban, with how the Steelers can play defense. Though Warner is a seasoned veteran, capable of reading any defense, he still has to make the plays, particularly in the moment. If he realizes the Steelers defense will force enough three and outs, yet can still be had with the multitude of weapons, possibly the most unlikely Super Bowl champion since the New York Jets in the third Super Bowl will be crowned.

AFC Title Game Info

In today’s unstable world and even shakier economy, we are being bombarded with messages about “thinking outside the box” or embracing change to whether thru the worst of times anyone has seen in decades. Yet when it comes to our sports clichés, we accept them like old tales - “feed a cold, starve a fever.” The AFC Championship game brings one of oldies but goodies that everyone from any age has heard, “It’s hard to beat the same team three times.”

Even before the end of Pittsburgh’s win over San Diego and the clock striking midnight Sunday, if you had a dollar for every time that expression was used on the various sports stations, come last Monday morning, you had enough money to eat lunch out all week and not on the dollar menu either. Even the participants were beating the drum. "It's hard to beat a team three times in a row in a season,'' Steelers cornerback Ike Taylor stated.

The next installment of the Baltimore-Pittsburgh AFC North rivalry will to be the most important meeting in the history of the series. The winner heads to warm and sunny Tampa Bay in two weeks for Super Bowl XLIII.

Pittsburgh beat Baltimore in two hard-fought; tightly contest games, by scores of 23-20 and 13-9 respectively. In both instances, the Ravens out-rushed the Steelers by a fairly generous margin (107.5 vs 80 yards), but came up short in the passing game, which could make the difference again. Ben Roethlisberger averaged 180 passing yards against Baltimore’s defense in two meetings compared to rookie Joe Flacco coming in at exactly 50 yards less at 130. Ultimately, this may once again be the deciding factor in who will represent the AFC west Florida.

The last time division rivals met in a conference championship was 1999 season, when fourth seed Tennessee traveled to Jacksonville, who was the top seed in the AFC and whipped them 33-14, completing a three-game sweep that season, which led to Super Bowl appearance.
Baltimore has had unfathomable year, winning and covering 11 of its last 13 games, thanks to a good running game, a passing game that makes just enough completions to matter and a defense that leaves black and blue marks so deep, it looks like a tattoo even weeks later. The hard hitting and ball hawking nature shows itself in the turnover margin. Since losing three in a row to start the year 2-3, Baltimore is an unimaginable +24, including a +7 differential in the playoffs.

Even having the double revenge angle, this will a difficult assignment for the Ravens. Begin with this being their 17 consecutive game, as they were forced to take unwanted bye in Week 2, no thanks to Hurricane Ike. No less than eight defensive players will appear on this week’s injury report, though all are expected to play, how well is another matter. For cliché purposes, games are won on the scoreboard, not on the stat sheet, yet in two playoff games, the Ravens have been out-gained 667-397. Nevertheless, they will arrive in the Steel City 11-2 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.

Pittsburgh comes in as healthy as they have been all season, with Willie Parker fresh, Big Ben showing no affects of concussion and the league’s best defense as ferocious as ever. Bettors flocked to Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets, taking the Steelers from 4.5-point favorites to current six, with total of 34. The Steelers know exactly what to expect from the Ravens and understand ball protection will be tantamount. In Pittsburgh’s four losses, they had three or more turnovers in three defeats and were 13-1 and 10-4 ATS in all other games. Pittsburgh is 38-18 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

Pittsburgh is just 9-8 ATS as home favorite in the playoffs, hoping to advance to second Super Bowl in four years. The higher seed has advanced to the big game in five of the last six years (4-2 ATS) in the AFC title game, with the lone exception being a sixth seed (Pittsburgh in 2005), just like Baltimore is.

What you Need to Know

Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh have to do virtually the same thing. They both will want to run and control the line of scrimmage. This sets up play-action passing game and each will be unafraid to take deep shots down the field. Because of the similarities, the difference could be the experienced player under center.

Both defenses are menacing and will want to funnel the action towards their strengths, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis for Baltimore and James Harrison and Troy Polamalu for Pittsburgh. Will the road finally wear out the Ravens?

Key System- In the Conference Finals, Play Against any team this is an underdog, if they were an underdog in last game. (20-12 ATS)