Jets at Chargers Preview

The San Diego Chargers have won 11 straight games and no team is hotter, particularly offensively, as they scored 20 or more points in every game. More than one prognosticator has the Bolts fulfilling long believed destiny of making the Super Bowl this season. In spite of modest playoff success the last couple of years, is Norv Turner really capable of leading this team to Miami?

The New York Jets (10-7 SU & ATS) don’t believe so, especially after whipping Cincinnati 24-14 last week. While some would prefer to dismiss the Jets having won last two regular season games against unmotivated foes to sneak into the postseason, the fact remains they have won and covered six of seven (only loss late 10-7 defeat to Atlanta) and been impressive in doing so. In those triumphs, the Flyboys have beat the oddsmakers by 13.4 points per game. Without question, the Jets are the only remaining team in the playoffs where the quarterback position isn’t the most important factor.

New York is 9-3 ATS as road underdog and according to coach Rex Ryan, are built for January football. The Jets were the top rushing team in the NFL during the regular season and didn’t miss a beat at Cincinnati rushing for 171 yards last week. On defense, Ryan doesn’t look to stop a portion of a team’s offense; he wants to take EVERYTHING away.

Besides have talented players with aggressive style, Ryan is blessed with having CB Darrelle Revis. He is the best pure cover corner in football and faced a who’s-who of pass catchers this season, with none having more than five catches for a max of 35 yards. Why would teams bother to throw at him, instead of avoiding him like teams do Oakland’s Nnamdi Asomugha, they don’t have choice really.

While most teams play a version of Cover 2 defense, it’s not unusual for New York to play Cover 1 or 0, to create collapse the pocket, having faith Revis can stop top receiver and others in the secondary to guard for a shorter amount of time with opposing quarterback having to unload the ball quickly. The Jets are 6-3 SU and ATS on the road and last won in San Diego in the 2005 wildcard round, 20-17 as 6.5-point underdogs.

The Chargers (13-3, 8-7-1 ATS) believe they have inherit advantages over New York and will be able to expound on them. San Diego is emotional club and feeds on own momentum, that is why are 13-4 ATS after three or more consecutive wins. Last week, the Bengals defense lacked the players to make Mark Sanchez uncomfortable, as he completed most of passes rolling out or on naked bootlegs. The Chargers bring pressures off the edges, which should keep Sanchez in the pocket and make him read the entire field, instead of sections.

Phillip Rivers is tall and strong and seldom affected by a tight pocket. San Diego has a roster of tall receivers. Turner will try and use his No. 1 receiver Vincent Jackson, who will probably draw Revis. Instead of wasting time throwing deep to him, watch for Turner to run slants, hoping Jackson can use big body and have Rivers throw the ball high to him.

If that is taken away, Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee are monstrous targets for New York to combat and there’s that other guy, oh yea, Antonio Gates who isn’t too shabby for a Chargers club that is 15-6-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning road record.

DiamondSportsbook.com opened San Diego as nine-point chalk and most of the action has been on the Jets, now receiving seven points. New York’s offensive line must control an athletic Chargers front seven that is below average battling it out in the trenches, allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer got a game ball last week for scheme and play-calling and will need similar genius against the Bolts for the Jets to improve to 8-2 ATS vs. teams with winning home record.

The Chargers are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 tilts and are the best screen team in football, with massive linemen and diminutive Darren Sproles hiding behind them before skittering away for big gains. He could well be the biggest difference in the last playoff game of the day.

Raiders need miracle as underdog

San Diego’s quest for a fourth consecutive AFC West title begins with a trip to Oakland, which finished three games behind the lackluster division winners with a record of 5-11 but managed four wins in 12 outings under Tom Cable, who was retained as head coach after replacing the fired Lane Kiffin.

The Raiders, a miserable 24-72 and 33-62-1 ATS over the last six seasons, haven’t won an opener since 2002 and lost a Week 1 Monday night game to Denver a year ago by a 27-point margin. They were swept by the Chargers, falling 28-18 at home in Kiffin’s finale, after leading by 15 at halftime and 34-7 on the road in the rematch.

Offseason headlines were nothing new for Oakland, which made a splash on draft day but didn’t spend foolishly on free agents. The big additions are wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey (1-Maryland), offensive tackle Khalif Barnes (Jaguars) and defensive end Greg Ellis (Cowboys). The Raiders also acquired Richard Seymour this last week from New England and he’s been less than enthusiastic about wearing the Black and Silver after hearing about all the horror stories in Al Davis’ nuthouse.

Considering the Raiders ranked 29th in total offense and dead last in passing offense, and owner Al Davis’ need for speed, the selection of Heyward-Bey at No. 7 overall shouldn’t have created such an uproar. The fleet-footed rookie, along with Johnnie Lee Higgins, will allow strong-armed quarterback JaMarcus Russell (13 touchdowns, eight interceptions) to let the pigskin fly. It should be noted Heyward-Bey has been dropping passes, which was his weakness coming out of Maryland. Oakland starts the season as 10-point home underdogs at DiamondSportsbook.com, with a total of 42 and they are 9-19-1 ATS as home underdogs.

While Russell completed only 53.8 percent of his passes, San Diego’s Philip Rivers (4,009 yards, 34 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, league-best 105.5 rating) ranked among the leaders with a 65.3 success rate. Funny thing, though, two of Rivers’ three weakest games from an accuracy standpoint came against the Raiders last season. He went 24-for-47 versus Oakland with four touchdowns and two interceptions.

If Rivers comes anywhere close to his production from last season or surpasses it, the Chargers are likely to run away with the division. Their defense, under the direction of Ron Rivera since the midway point of last season, became more attack-oriented than read-and-react, and welcomes back linebacker Shawne Merriman from knee surgery. The unit has some question marks up front. Travis Johnson replaces Igor Olshansky (Cowboys) at left end, fifth-year right end Luis Castillo has yet to play up to his contract and tackle Jamal Williams, entering his 12th year, isn’t getting younger. Even so, it might not matter with San Diego having won 11 in a row over Oakland, covering the spread 10 times.

San Diego covers because they always do against the Raiders. The Chargers have covered seven straight at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, winning six times. San Diego has a number of edges, all related to talent. LaDainian Tomlinson could break back big against unsettled Oakland defensive front that was last against the run in 2008. Though Shawne Merriman missed last season due to injury, he’s shown no ill effects in the preseason and should expose Oakland at either offensive tackle position. The Raiders outside of CB Nnamdi Asomugha are inexperienced and unproven in the secondary, look for San Diego to attack. Lastly, make JaMarcus Russell beat you. Stack the middle against the run and force the former No.1 pick to make consistent throws to inconsistent wide receivers and score enough points to matter. Winning by two touchdowns should not be an issue for the Bolts against a sorry franchise that is 2-11 ATS at home when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.

Oakland covers if they shorten the game by effectively running the ball. Darren McFadden needs the ball in space to be most effective, which means quick pitches or screens to either side. Though the Chargers are big and powerful, they are not more than average in the speed category. Get them moving from side to side and possibly the Raiders can wear down the defense. Tight end Zach Miller needs 7-10 catches in this game, to keep the chains moving and Oakland has to score points of some kind every time they cross the 50-yard line. Defensively, play with a lot of energy and don’t get discouraged by a few big plays. Force field goals and keep Chargers out of the end zone. As a coach, Norv Turner is just 1-9-1 ATS in first division matchup. Execute the plan and THE RAIDERS are within five points with a chance to win late.

Monday Night Angles –Teams like Oakland with just one MNF appearance playing at home are 6-14 ATS as hosts. Road favorites of 10 or more points like San Diego are 1-6 ATS since 1999 on MNF.

College and Pro Football Newsweekly contributed to this article.