Nova on the ropes?

You would have to believe so by the way they are playing and evidently other actions off the court. Villanova (25-7, 18-13 ATS) has won three of their previous eight games, covering the spread twice (one was by a single point). The big question about the Wildcats seems to be commitment.

Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher were the latest players late in the season to be a part of coach Jay Wright’s “teaching points”, starting the a NCAA game on the bench. Does this appear to be a team hungry to return to the Final Four?

Villanova was a 17-point favorite over No. 15 Robert Morris and needed five extra minutes to put away the Colonials 73-70. Nova’s biggest lead of the game was six points as they shot 35.3 percent as a team and were 6-22 from behind the arc and at the end of the contest, one team got a standing ovation and it wasn’t Villanova. The Wildcats will have to work hard to keep 8-1 ATS record in road games playing their second game in three days over the last two seasons.

St. Mary’s (27-5, 21-9-1 ATS) is the opponent out of the 10th seed slot and they are very capable at 13-3 and 12-4 ATS on the road. After losing consecutive road games at Gonzaga and Portland in the middle of February and allowing 80 points in each, coach Randy Bennett made it point to reconstruct St. Mary’s practices, starting each one with defensive focus. This new strategy has work emphatically, as the Gaels have rattled off six straight wins and five covers.

Another big factor in St. Mary’s success and it big, literally, is the domination of 6’11 center Omar Samhan. He tore up the Richmond defense with his 29 points and 12 rebounds, leading the way in comfortable 80-71 upset of the Spiders. Samhan has enjoyed more freedom in the low blocks as point guard Mickey McConnell and freshman guard Matthew Dellavedova have shot the rock with greater effectiveness deep. St. Mary’s is 10-3 ATS away from home after two or more wins this season.

Villanova is five-point favorite with total of 153.5 at Bookmaker.com, which should mean a high scoring affair. The Wildcats may be 15-6 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game, but 10-seeds have won outright 40 percent of the time against No. 2’s if they average better than 72 points a game and if they outscore opponents by at least five points per contest (St. Mary’s at 13.5). The Gaels are 12-3 ATS on the road after scoring 80 or more points.

This is the opening game on Saturday slated for 1:05 Eastern and Villanova is 17-4 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.

Line makers tell the score for opening NCAA games

There is this person I’ve known for years, who has a regular full-time teaching job at a smaller university who is essentially a semi-professional gambler. Kendall used to bet with bookies, but once betting on the internet became an option, he moved that direction and has stayed there. His method of betting college basketball couldn’t be any more simplistic; he watches games and breaks down the line.

By breaking the line, this refers the side and total of a contest to see what the outcome should be. For example here is what the line makers are saying about the outcome of the first eight games of the NCAA Tournament. The numbers are from Bookmaker.com and because of how they fall, we can’t land exactly on the correct number and get as close as possible.

Villanova -18, 147.5 - Projected score Villanova 83-65
Richmond -2, 134.5 - Projected score Richmond 68-66
Baylor -10.5, 150 - Projected score Baylor 80-70
Notre Dame -2.5, 121.5 - Projected score Notre Dame 62-59
BYU -4.5, 146.5 - Projected score BYU 75-71
Kansas State -16, 148.5 - Projected score Kansas State 82-66
Vanderbilt -3, 141 - Projected score Vanderbilt 72-69
Butler -2.5, 130.5 - Projected score Butler 66-64

This is what the oddsmakers are telling us what the outcome of each game should be, but is this what will occur? I asked Kendall his thoughts.

“Villanova automatically is favored by 12 points because of the conference differential between the Big East and the Northeast (Conference).” He went on to add the Wildcats guards are 10 points better those from Robert Morris, but Colonials defense is better, which is two points in their favor. Robert Morris was crushed by Big East teams Syracuse (by 40) and Pittsburgh (by 24) but played better down the stretch with 5-2 record compared to Nova’s 2-5 stutter. He explained Robert Morris would be a better play with the points if they did a better job on protecting the ball per possession.

In the other South Region matchup, Kendall sees value in Richmond over St. Mary’s. “The conference difference is worth three points in Richmond’s favor, which is the difference in the game.” He tells me St. Mary’s lacks the foot speed to contain the Spiders point guard Kevin Anderson and he also likes David Gonzalvez, which gives them three point edge over St. Mary’s in the backcourt. Because Omar Samhan and Ben Allen are both taller that what Richmond can counter with, he gives the Gaels an edge, however because of how well the Spiders can defend in help defense, the difference is negated to smaller portion. Kendall likes Richmond to win and cover.

Kendall sees window of opportunity with Sam Houston State with the points over Baylor. “Sam Houston State is your classic upset specialist. They average nine 3’s a game and convert at high rate (37.8 percent). They average 80 points a game (79.9) and are +5 rebound margin. Double digit points worthwhile.” I asked Kendall about Baylor’s outstanding numbers on offense and defense and wasn’t their talent superior? He responded this way. “The Big Eight is 10 points better than the Southland. If this is accurate and I believe it is, why are the Bears only favored by almost the same number? This is high risk, high reward bet.”

The Notre Dame and Old Dominion side is seen as correct by Kendall. However he likes the total. “People are watching Notre Dame thinking this is Big East game, it’s not. ODU will force tempo and Irish didn’t forget how to play faster if needed. The Monarchs don’t shoot well, but they really pound the glass and will get several put backs. With total coming down, great value in game I see in the low 130’s.”

The Kansas State and BYU’s matchups are “spot on” accordingly to this sports bettor; however he sees opportunity in the other two afternoon clashes.

“I’m playing Murray State three ways, with the points, first half and on the money line. Oddsmakers subtly sneaked in a number on Murray State and nobody noticed but sharps. My information is most have laid low, making smaller wagers, hoping the public will back SEC team late, which will this more attractive (wager) closer to game time. Think about it, SEC vs Ohio Valley, three points, are you kidding!”

Last is Butler and UTEP. ‘I’ve watched both teams play at least eight times and at different points of the season. Butler is smarter club, but that Georgetown loss in New York told a tale. If (Derrick) Caracter gets Matt Howard in foul trouble early, where does Butler turn? Caracter would have his way and UTEP really creates problems with their complete defense, not just press (39 percent). If exhausted Miners team had beaten Houston, at worst they should have been ninth seed. As much as I enjoy watch Butler, UTEP with the points is play.”

Kansas the favorite and how the rest shakes out

This is in many ways one of the most unusual years in college basketball and possibly it might be a sign of future events as it moves along. Kansas was the deserved No.1 seed of the whole tournament and while West Virginia made a late push, all four top seeds have earned their position at the top of respective brackets. (We all know who Ashley Judd likes)

This year more than ever, no whining about the teams that didn’t get in, if it weren’t for the usual upsets by teams that end up winning conference championships, it would have even harder to fill the field of 65 teams, since all the teams that didn’t make it had more than enough bad losses to offset what qualities wins they manufactured.

My eyes are blurry from watching over 150 college basketball games this season and this is whom I see in the Sweet 16, starting in the Midwest region.

In March, you need a number of factors to win six games and be crowned the kings of college basketball. At the top of the list is talent and this why coach Bill Self continues to win everywhere he goes, the man can recruit. Kansas (32-2, 14-16-1) has a terrific point guard in Sherrod Collins, size and scoring in the paint with Cole Aldrich and the Morris brothers and Xavier Henry has his sweet looking three-point shot back. Kansas wins be 18 points a game and was a nation’s best 8-1 against the RPI’s Top 25. Lehigh (22-10) won the Patriot League regular and postseason, but should not provide much opposition; however being 26-point underdog could draw wagering support.

I was surprised to see Northern Iowa (28-4, 21-10 ATS) as a ninth seed, as they were a Top 30 team all season and won the Missouri Valley regular season and postseason tourney. The Panthers concede just 54.3 points per game and might feel underappreciated against UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS) who has to have guard Tre’Von Willis at 100 percent after suffering mildly sprained ankle in MWC semis. No. 8 seeds are just 46-54 against No.9 seeds and Northern Iowa is a 1.5-point underdog and will try and win NCAA game for the first time in 20 years.

Michigan State (24-8, 12-19 ATS) will have some early problems with athletic New Mexico State (22-11); however the Aggies are a mirage of sorts, winning by less than a point per game (+0.8) despite 22 victories and coughs up 77.8 points per game. The Spartans are 13-point favorites and need point guard Kalin Lucas to regain form prior to injury to move beyond this contest.

Rumors around Houston had coach Tom Penders on the bubble, to keep his job that is, instead the Cougars are in NCAA Tournament for first time in 18 years. Houston (19-15, 14-16 ATS) has the nation’s leading scorer in Aubrey Coleman and fellow guard Kelvin Lewis can also bury shots, it will be how they defend Maryland (23-8, 16-10 ATS) that will make the difference as nine-point underdogs. Before lame effort against Georgia Tech in ACC quarterfinals, the Terps has won nine of ten (8-2 ATS). A refocused Maryland and Greivis Vasquez could score a bundle on Houston off four games in four days. How about first to 100 wins.

Ohio State (27-7, 17-16-1 ATS) might have the best five players with diverse skills in the country, led by Evan Turner. UC-Santa Barbara (20-9, 17-11 ATS) was Big West champs and has conference player of the year Orlando Johnson, but can the Gauchos (nickname is a top seed for certain) handle Buckeyes ability to score in bunches? Linemakers are saying no with Ohio State a 17-point chalk.

The 7 vs.10 matchup in the Midwest is delightful study contrast in styles. Oklahoma State (22-10, 15-10-1 ATS) is guard-oriented, with their sharp-shooter James Anderson and Georgia Tech (22-12, 15-12-1 ATS) plays best going inside to Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors. The Yellow Jackets commit way too many turnovers, which is why they are probably 1.5-point dogs, in spite of ability to control the lane.

No.3 Georgetown (23-10, 17-12 ATS) is one the best teams in the country when their top three players are “on” like they were in Big East tourney. Too much power and size for Hoyas, but the dynamic guard duo of Armon Bassett and D.J. Cooper for Ohio U. (21-14, 18-12 ATS) could make it interesting as 13-point underdogs if they can combine for 50 or more points.
San Diego State (25-8, 18-13 ATS) to upset Tennessee (23-8, 13-17 ATS)? Not sure as sixth seeds are 69-31 SU over 11th seeds and the Aztecs are pitiful 61.7 percent from the free throw line. The Vols can play defense (39.4 percent), however San Diego State is 11-7 SU and ATS away from home.

Midwest Region Sweet 16 teams – Kansas Maryland Ohio State Georgetown

West Regional Round 1 Betting Preview

Syracuse (28-4, 19-9 ATS) was sent out West after losing last two games, which might be to their benefit. The Orangemen have had time to get healthier, which is very important for Arinze Onuaku (reports are he will miss first game). No No.1 seed has ever lost to a No. 16 (100-0), but Syracuse lost to Vermont (25-9) a few seasons ago in the first round as a fourth seed. The Orangemen didn’t lose a game outside the RPI Top 50, is 10-3 ATS away and is posted 17.5-point favorite.

They will face the winner of Gonzaga (26-6, 15-11-2 ATS) and Florida State (22-9, 8-18 ATS), where something has to give. The Zags are fifth in the country in offensive field goal percentage (49.1) and the Seminoles are first in field goal percentage defense (37.4). Gonzaga’s defense is better than Florida State’s offense; nevertheless the Noles are still a 1.5-point favorite.
UTEP (26-6, 14-14 ATS) was upset by Houston in C-USA final, however it was their third game in 36 hours and they were dead in their sneakers at the end when they lost. That won’t be the case against Butler (28-4, 13-19 ATS), who has issues with athletic teams. The Bulldogs can’t run and gun with the Miners or they fall in classic 5 vs. 12 matchup, with the higher seed run of the mill 20-16 SU the last nine years. Butler is favored by 2.5-points at Bookmaker.com, however UTEP holds teams to 38.8 percent shooting and averages almost nine steals game. Upset brewing?

Another possible upset is fourth seeded Vanderbilt (24-8, 15-14 ATS) against Ohio Valley champion Murray State. Vandy is 3-3 SU in last six outings and the Racers shoot over 50 percent and hold opposing teams to 38.6 percent. The Commodores may win; nonetheless taking the three points with Murray State (30-4, 15-13-1 ATS) might be valuable.

The Sun Belt champs North Texas (24-8) like to play all 94 feet and could be troublesome for team looking ahead and are 17-7-1 ATS this year. Unfortunately, Kansas State (26-7, 19-9 ATS) rarely takes a night off with coach Frank Martin’s intensity and the Mean Green give up too many easy buckets in the paint. North Texas is on the receiving end of 16-points and could be above average first half wager.

BYU (29-5, 18-13 ATS) hasn’t been a factor in the tournament in recent appearances (last NCAA win was 1993), but that might change against very ordinary Florida squad. The Cougars are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country and what they may lack in quickness; they at least have tall timber to compete in the lane with the Gators. Florida (21-12, 15-13 ATS) is 1-4 in previous five and in the immortal words of former New York Yankee great Yogi Berra, the Gators “play good enough to lose”. Line makers have Cougs by 4.5 over Gainesville gang.

Oakland U. (26-8, 6-8 ATS) is 20-1 since Dec. 28; however is 0-4 against teams in the tournament, losing by 27.2 points a contest. Pittsburgh’s demeanor will determine if they cover the spread, like when the Panthers (24-8, 16-11-2 ATS) lost to Indiana and at South Florida. Pittsburgh is not always pretty, yet coach Jamie Dixon strives to squeeze the most out is talent and the Cats are 10-point faves.

Xavier (24-8, 20-11 ATS) and Minnesota (21-13, 17-16 ATS) is intriguing conflict. Both teams are well-coached and play solid defense. The Musketeers are better offensively at 80 points per game and forward Jason Love has to be smart and not get into foul trouble; otherwise the edge goes to the bigger Golden Gophers who can score easier in the paint if Love is on the bench. For Hoosier Jamal Crawford is now part of the X-men and looks to show the Big Ten the wrong team is favored.

West Region Sweet 16 teams –Syracuse Murray State Kansas State Pittsburgh

South Regional Round 1 Betting Preview

It’s hard to call a top seed a dark horse, yet that is how this Duke (29-5, 18-14-1 ATS) team feels. Of the top 10 teams in the country over the last month, this is one squad that is unquestionably better today than a month ago; pencil them into Sweet 16 this tournament.

For the California (23-10, 19-13 ATS) and Louisville (20-12, 10-17 ATS) contest, assigning each a heads or tails might be the best way to choose a winner. Cal won regular season Pac-10 title in mediocre league, yet can’t discount good guard play and 8-2 SU and ATS finish. The Cardinals are too unpredictable from game to game to figure and could win or lose by 15 or more points. No wonder this game opened as a Pick.

Utah State (27-7, 19-10-1 ATS) is a good squad, but faced only three teams in the RPI Top 50 (1-2). The Aggies will take on the Aggies from Texas A&M (23-9, 18-10 ATS), who have many of the same qualities, except they are bigger and stronger and from a superior conference. Big teams with rebounders bother Utah State, yet they are still only a three point underdog.

Siena (27-6, 16-13-2 ATS) will be a popular choice to upset Purdue (27-5, 13-18-1 ATS) as four point dogs, who were putrid in Big Ten semis, being waxed by 27. Nevertheless, Boilermaker pride and stifling defense gives them a chance and people are thinking of prior Saints squads that had success in the tournament. This Siena team is not nearly as athletic.

Honestly was shocked to see Villanova (24-7, 18-12 ATS) a two seed with five defeats in last seven games. With Scottie Reynolds and other guards they do present matchup difficulties, but falter in the paint area offensively and defensively. Robert Morris (23-11, 3-4 ATS) will provide first game opposition as 18.5 point underdogs, led by freshman Karon Abraham. For trivia buffs, Robert Morris was known as the "Financier of the American Revolution" and first president George Washington lived in his mansion for his two terms in Philadelphia, which was then the nation’s capital.

Richmond (26-7, 19-10-1 ATS) and St. Mary’s (26-5, 20-9-1 ATS) is excellent confrontation, with the winner getting Nova. Both have been sharp plays as visitors, with Richmond 13-5 and St. Mary’s 9-4 against the spread. Two keys- How the Gaels contain guard Kevin Anderson and what the Spiders do with center Omar Samhan. Richmond is two-point pick.

The most complete No. 3 seed is Baylor (25-7, 16-9 ATS), with size and quickness all over the court and are 11.5-point faves over Southland Conference champions Sam Houston State (27-6), who distributes the ball well with a league leading 20.4 assists per game.

Baylor is presumed to take on the winner of Notre Dame (23-11, 17-10-1 ATS) and Old Dominion (26-8, 12-17-1 ATS) contest. The Monarchs hold opposing teams to only 57.1 points a game and really crash the offensive glass. The Irish change in style has meant more wins and improved defense. What club shoots better and has rebound edge is your winner.

South Region Sweet 16 teams –Duke Texas A&M Villanova Baylor

East Regional Round 1 Betting Preview

Can a team as young as Kentucky (32-2, 16-15 ATS) really win six strenuous games without cracking? If talent is best predictor, than the Wildcats certainly have a great shot with no less than three NBA players on the roster, with DeMarcus Cousins, John Wall and Patrick Paterson. Kentucky is a 20-point favorite over East Tennessee State (20-14) and after dispatching of them will face one of two fading teams in the second round.

Texas (24-9, 11-18 ATS) is the lowest seeded team at 8th that was ever No.1 in the nation in a given season and Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) was heavily scrutinized, losing five of last six outings. The Demon Deacons are averaging measly 60.2 points a contest in their last five and connect on only 66 percent from the charity stripe. Texas is a 4.5-point favorite and as long as they have the lead the Longhorns are fine. However since January, Texas collapses like a folding chair went faced with adversity, how will they react Thursday?

Cornell (27-4, 16-10 ATS) might be a super pick, being one of the best Ivy League teams in years and playing Kansas even for 35 minutes and Syracuse close to the same early in the season. Cornell knocks down 48.1 percent from the field, which includes 43.4 percent from beyond the arc. What holds the Big Red back as four-point underdogs is facing Temple (28-5, 22-12 ATS), who won the A-10 and does all the same things Cornell does, with bigger and quicker athletes. The Owls hold opposing teams to just 27.8 percent from three-point land.

In the battle of W’s, Wisconsin (23-8, 17-12 ATS) should whip Wofford (26-8, 16-11 -2 ATS), yet the Terriers might have enough bite to keep it close as 10-point underdogs, having been victorious in 16 of last 17 (10-5-2 ATS). This might be the lowest scoring game of the first round.

West Virginia’s (27-6, 13-19 ATS) size and strength will be way too much for MEAC champ Morgan State (27-9, 5-5 ATS) and they will await the winner of Clemson (21-10, 14-14 ATS) and Missouri (22-10, 14-12 ATS).

This will be extreme battle of wills, as both are full court pressing teams, seeking to create chaos. Neither of these Tigers’ teams is as effective away from home, as Clemson is 7-8 SU (4-11 ATS) and Missouri is 6-8 SU and both see declining points per game in road uniforms. The club that commits the fewer turnovers and scores buckets on the backend of press is the victor. Oddmakers see this one very close with Clemson a one point choice.

New Mexico (29-4, 18-13-1 ATS) enjoyed a splendid campaign and is a well-deserved three seed. The Lobos had their 15-game winning streak snapped by San Diego State in MWC semi-finals, which will only work to help coach Steve Alford make his surprising club more humble starting a new season. New Mexico will have to be very aware of guard Anthony Johnson of Montana (22-9, 18-11), who scored 42 points in Big Sky tournament championship game. The Grizzlies are receiving nine-points in this one.

The Pac-10 was in danger as recently as three weeks ago of only sending one team to the tournament, when Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) started playing like the team the pre-season publications forecasted. The Huskies have won eight of nine and seven in a row, becoming Pac-10 champions, winning the post-season tourney. The complete turnaround has happened by being mentally tougher away from Seattle, having won six straight (5-1 ATS). They will face similar Marquette (22-11, 17-10 ATS) club that can also motor and is a two-point favorite. This contest involves two star players not everyone is familiar with, Lazar Hayward of the Golden Eagles and Quincy Pondexter of Washington and that alone is reason to watch.

East Region Sweet 16 teams –Kentucky Temple West Virginia Washington

Say it isn't so, college hoops regular season ending?

It’s OK to feel a little choked up, real men do. The end of the regular season for college basketball is already here, it seems like football just ended and now this. But it’s fine, it’s time for March Madness, with more crazy twists and turns than Charley Sheen’s marriage to his wife Brooke. This is the time for fun and action, where a 15-point lead at halftime can dry up faster than a puddle of water up against an Arizona March sun. So take advantage of situation and don’t worry about what you don’t have, rather what you are about to enjoy. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Mar. 6

West Virginia at Villanova (-3.5, 151) 12:00E CBS

The impact on the Big East standings would be minimal, but for West Virginia (23-6, 12-16 ATS), this trip to Philadelphia is very meaningful. The Mountaineers are 6-4 and 4-6 ATS as visitors, lack a defining road win all season, with December victory at Seton Hall probably the best of the lot. West Virginia plays many of the aspects of basketball expertly, however they lack a true point guard and a shooter at the end of the game. West Virginia lost earlier at home to Villanova and is 1-5 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite.

Has the lack of Wildcats scoring and defense in low blocks finally caught up to them The immediate answer would be yes, as Nova has fallen four times since Feb. 6. Opposing teams are brazenly attacking Villanova (24-5, 18-10 ATS) at the rim and coach Jay Wright’s team is drawing fouls like clicks to Megan Fox’s website. Most of the points in the lane come on dribble penetration or put-backs, not conventional scoring. The Wildcats are 21-11 ATS playing a team with a winning record past the mid-point of schedule since last year.

The straight up winner is 15-0 ATS dating back to 1999.

Kansas at Missouri (+3, 145.5) 2:00E CBS

The Jayhawks fell from No.1 and lost unbeaten regular season in the Big 12 at Oklahoma State and have one more treacherous stop left. They played outstanding for all about seven minutes in crushing Kansas State by 17 points and has one last conference clash. Kansas (28-2) travels to the home of their most bitter rival Missouri (22-8, 14-10 ATS), who lies in wait to conquer them. Coach Bill Self has been preaching at season, "We’ve got to have a killer instinct and bury people.” He’s seen his team routinely build 20+ point leads and win by less, which is a big reason why the Jayhawks are only 11-15-1 ATS. That should not be a problem in Columbia, however a 2-13 ATS record after winning 18 or more of their last 20 games over the last three seasons is.

Missouri’s in the Big Dance and an upset should improve their seeding dramatically. The Tigers are ferocious at home with 16-1 record (8-4 ATS), winning by 23.8 points per game. Mizzou’s backcourt is like an unmarked stove, you’re never sure what area is hot, and once determined, that player can stay hot until the next one emerges. Guards Kim English and Zaire Taylor are the most likely to heat up quickly, but sub Marcus Denmon has shown proclivity to ripping the chords also. Missouri needs its pressure defense to force miscues and turn them into points and are 8-2 ATS versus offensive clubs scoring 77 or more points game in 2009-10.

Missouri is 5-11 and 5-9-2 ATS in “Border Wars” since 2001 and the team with the higher three-point shooting percent is 16-0 SU.

Syracuse at Louisville (+1, 145) 2:00E ESPN

The last team to finish 9-0 on the Big East road was Connecticut 11 years ago and they went on to win national championship. Syracuse (28-2, 19-7 ATS) is perfect thus far as conference guests and would love to saunter down a similar path this season. The Orangemen are also 11-0 and 10-1 ATS away from Syracuse and freshman guard Brandon Triche has the answer why. "Less to do. On the road, you can't really go out. All you do is just sit there and think about the game." The ‘Cuse is 9-0 ATS having won four of five games this season.

It has been an escalator ride for Louisville (19-11, 9-16 ATS) this season; going down after loss at St. John’s by 19 and going right back up when they knocked off Syracuse in New York in next outing. This is not your typical Rick Pitino club, normally peaking at this time, instead when asked where his team was headed late in the season, his response was “next game”. This has been a team marked with inconsistency, making them an unsafe wager at home, where the Cardinals are 14-4, with rueful 4-9 ATS mark. This will be the last game at Freedom Hall, where Louisville has won over 80 percent of their games in this building since playing their starting in the 1957/58 season.

Not many matchups with Louisville, still a relative newcomer to Big East, yet Syracuse is 0-5 and 0-4-1 ATS the last three years.

Tennessee at Mississippi State (-3.5, 138.5) 6:00E ESPN

The Bulldogs shocking loss at Auburn means they still have work to do to be outright West Division champions of the SEC. Mississippi State (21-9, 13-11 ATS) did not show their usual defensive tenacity, allowing the Tigers score the most points against them all season (89) and surrender highest shooting percentage for a the year at 51.7. This is extremely important contest for the Bulldogs since they are not secure for NCAA bid. Despite having 22 victories, a perusal of those accomplishments has Old Dominion as best win. Mississippi State needs a W and be playing in the SEC championship to give them best chance for invite. The Bulldogs are 11-5 ATS off a SU loss and spread failure.

Tennessee’s fate for now is set, finishing third in the SEC East and playing LSU in first tournament game. Coach Bruce Pearl wants his Volunteers (22-7, 11-15 ATS) to look at the bigger picture. A win at Starksville and at least a couple victories next week in Nashville could have Tennessee climbing to possibly a third seed when the NCAA bids are announced. Scotty Hopson’s more aggressive offensive manner and Brian Williams energy, make the Vols a tougher team to knock off. Wagering wise not so much, having covered only three of last 12 SEC conflicts.

The underdog has been the correct side in seven of last 10 meetings.

North Carolina at Duke (-14.5, 146) 9:00E ESPN

Given the choice, ESPN would probably rather telecast great moments in North Carolina and Duke history, since this doesn’t set up to be one. The Tar Heels (16-14, 10-18 ATS) started the season with seven McDonald’s All-Americans and as the regular season closes, it appears Roy Williams picked up seven guys that ate at Micky D’s in his most frustrating season. North Carolina has shown a pulse lately winning and covering last two contests, yet UNC is 0-9 ATS facing teams outscoring foes by eight or more points after 15 or more contests.

It’s senior night for starters G Jon Scheyer, C Brian Zoubek and F Lance Thomas and what better way to go out than ACC regular season champs (or co-champs) with a win over their most hated rival. This is most versatile Duke (25-5, 17-11-1 ATS) team in a number of seasons as the year wore on, still needing Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler to score, but the contributions have been coming in from different areas on game by game basis. The Blue Devils are 16-0 and 10-5 ATS at Cameron Indoor Stadium this campaign, winning by super-sized 26.1 points per game.

This however is normally very competitive matchup, with the Dukies 7-5 with 2-10 ATS home record against Carolina Blue since 1997.

Sunday, Mar. 7

Florida at Kentucky ( ) 12:00E CBS

The Gators conclude the regular season with a matchup with their biggest rival Kentucky. Florida (20-10, 13-12 ATS) was doing its best to align itself to return to tournament for the first time in three years with step-up efforts from Chandler Parsons and Erving Walker. However, recent close losses at Georgia and at Vanderbilt have undermined their progress. Parsons has grown and displays an all-around game, getting others players involved in the offense, playing a point forward style. It will be a tough environment; nevertheless, the Gators are playing well and are 5-2 ATS as away underdogs this season.

This contest concludes what coach John Calipari hopes is a three part play. Kentucky (28-2, 16-12 ATS) is the best team in the SEC and has the best record. He would prefer his team win the conference tournament to keep momentum building, followed by six consecutive wins and a national championship. That of course is down the road and this game is about showing dominance, especially on home floor, since presumably DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson and John Wall will playing at Rupp Arena for the last time. The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS vs. poor three-point shooting teams converting 31 or less of their attempts since last year.

Kentucky has won nine of last dozen in Lexington over Florida with 6-5-1 ATS mark.

Michigan at Michigan State ( ) 4:00E CBS

The Spartans 67-65 win as 13-point home favorites over last place Penn State epitomizes their season. Michigan State (23-7, 11-18 ATS) is playing to be co-champion of the Big Ten, but it hardly feels like it. The Spartans 9-0 conference start and one-point road wins at Minnesota and Michigan only camouflaged their weaknesses that emerged later in February. Kalin Lucas was carrying this club, with super sub Draymond Green being the only other consistent scoring threat. Lately, even Lucas has been affected, with eight turnovers and one assist in last Sunday’s win over Purdue and he made two miscues against the Nittany Lions that almost cost his club the game. Coach Tom Izzo’s maddening squad is 13-2 and uninspiring 4-11 ATS as a home favorite.

Michigan (14-15, 13-12 ATS) started the year in the Top 25 and has fallen faster than American Idol winner Taylor Hicks from the limelight. If one supports and watched the Maize and Blue this season, you would be having Tommy Amaker flashbacks with how this team has performed. Coach John Beilein has been trying to force feed 6’10 center Zack Gibson into the starting lineup, as 6’8 DeShawn Sims is the only other regular start over 6-foot-5. Gibson becomes important against the larger and more physical Spartans since the Wolverines have been outrebounded eight straight games. Michigan is 2-5 and 6-1 ATS as away underdog.

Dating back to 1998, Michigan State has won all 10 games over in-state rival Michigan in East Lansing, with 5-5 ATS record.

College Hoops Weekend Preview

For many of the smaller conferences, the regular season concludes this weekend, while the larger leagues are still fighting to determine who the regular season champions will be. This Saturday and Sunday, a large number of these confrontations are on tap in several conferences and college basketball bettors are going to have to bring their A-game to determine winners and spread beaters. Enjoy the fray. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Feb. 27

Northeastern at George Mason (+3, 125)12:00E ESPN2

One of the most underrated leagues in college basketball is the Colonial Athletic Conference. Each season is highly competitive and the top teams have invariably pulled a few upsets over BCS-type conferences and the quality of play usually leads to good showings in the NCAA Tourney or the minor post-season events. On the final weekend of the regular season, Northeastern (18-11, 15-12-1 ATS) can still tie for conference crown with Old Dominion with a win and Monarchs loss, thanks to league leading defense that has permitted more than 64 points in CAA action just once. The Huskies are 7-5 and 8-3 ATS on the road this season.

George Mason (17-12, 10-15-1 ATS) sky-rocketed to the top off conference standings with 10-1 record, but a closer look revealed a 5-5-1 ATS mark, providing info the Patriots were not quite as potent as they appeared. February has been cruel to George Mason (2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS), as the freshmen stocked team has hit the wall. Don’t be shocked if senior guard Cam Long has a big day in his last home game at the Patriot Center. Watch for oddsmakers number since Patriots are 3-0 ATS as home underdogs.

George Mason has won and covered previous four confrontations in Fairfax, VA and the home team is 8-1-1 ATS in these CAA contests.

Kentucky at Tennessee (+2.5, 140.5) 12:00E CBS (split)

Nothing stirs the orange-clad Tennessee fans to see red, like the blue in Kentucky basketball uniform. The Hatfield’s and McCoy’s feud had nothing on these two universities, where genuine hatred exists between the neighboring states. Coach Bruce Pearl has coached up his team since the trials and tribulations of the new year occurred, however recently, the loss of Tyler Smith, injuries and slumps have seen them struggle. “You can’t feel sorry for ourselves,” senior guard J.P. Prince said. Pearl almost assuredly will be in the orange sports jacket and the Vols (20-7, 10-14 ATS) are 20-5 ATS as a home underdog or pick.

Though Kentucky (27-1, 15-11 ATS) plays its four freshmen extensively, John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins are arguably as talented as anyone playing their respective positions. The earlier South Carolina road loss may have been a blessing, since forward Patrick Patterson listened to the criticism and has raised his play to the level of his ability and his team has gone on to win eight straight (6-2 ATS). He was the difference-maker in recent overtime wins at Mississippi State and at Vanderbilt. The Wildcats are 6-1 and 5-2 ATS on the road this season and 7-2 ATS dating back to last season if the opponent has a winning home record.

Kentucky has taken seven of the last dozen in Knoxville, and the SU winner is 11-2 ATS wherever they have played in previous 13 outings.

Arizona State at California (-6, 140.5) 3:00E FSN

These are likely to be the only two Pac-10 schools invited to the Big Dance and if either falters in their conference tournament early, even that becomes a question mark. This is Arizona State’s third consecutive and final road game of the year and they hope next weekend’s home finales will be meaningful for the Pac-10 title. The first order of business is knocking off Cal and the Sun Devils (20-8, 11-13 ATS) don’t believe in trickery to upset opposing teams. Arizona State isn’t going to “wow” anyone with personnel, instead they play defense and take care of the ball, which is why they are 8-1 ATS in road games when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers.

California (19-9, 15-12 ATS) was the preseason choice to win the Pac-10 and they have positioned themselves to do just that 11-5 record. Senior point guard Jerome Randle, with a strong finish might be conference Player of the Year and fellow senior Jamal Boykin has been playing his best basketball of the season. The Bears are a much better club when sophomore guard Jorge Gutierrez (out six games in January) is on the floor, because he adds ferocity and energy. Cal is 15-3 ATS at home facing a team with a winning record.

Both teams have five conferences defeats and California has a game in hand, having only Stanford remaining on the schedule. The Bears won in Tempe 78-70 as four-point underdogs previously and are 14-1 and 10-4 ATS at home, mauling opponents by 19.3 points per contest. Cal is 7-5 at the Haas Pavilion against ASU since ’97, however have only covered the spread three times.

Kansas at Oklahoma State (+5.5, 144) 4:00E CBS

The Jayhawks (27-1, 10-14-1 ATS) have been learning valuable lessons as the season has progressed. Being No. 1 most of the year has forced the Kansas players to expect everyone to be gunning for them. In games at Kansas State, at Colorado, at Texas A&M and even at home vs. Baylor, the Jayhawks had to fight to win, were a less mentally strong team would have lost. Coach Bill Self has his squad back playing for each other and nobody wants to let anyone down. The next adventure is in Stillwater and Kansas is 17-4 ATS against teams with 60%-80% win percentage.

The Cowboys (19-8, 12-8-1 ATS) internal mettle is being tested, facing their third consecutive ranked team in the Jayhawks, after beating Baylor and tumbling to Texas. Any chance for an upset lies in the hands of James Anderson. The junior guard can go from mild to habanero hot in two shots and teammates Keiton Page, Obi Muonelo and Matt Pilgrim end up benefiting as opponents become focused on cooling down Anderson. Oklahoma State has the worst assist-to-turnover ratio in the Big 12, which won’t cut it against Kansas. Okie State is 15-5 ATS on own floor vs. teams outscoring opponents by four or more points a contest.

The Cowboys have split six tilts at home vs. Kansas with four covers and the UNDER is 5-0.

New Mexico at BYU (-8,152.5) 4:00E VERSUS

The Mountain West crown could be on the line in Provo, with New Mexico (26-3, 17-10-1 ATS) looking for the sweep of BYU. The Lobos have been dealing and have ample confidence, which is supported by 9-2 and 5-5-1 ATS road record. We're just real confident," senior forward Roman Martinez said. "We always respect our opponent, but I think we're playing confident now and more calm than we used to be." This will help New Mexico who is 12-3 and 10-4 ATS when playing with three or more days off.

This MWC matchup is doubly important for BYU (26-3, 16-10 ATS), since they try to even season series and still have road games remaining. Senior Jonathan Tavernari has had a relatively disappointing final season, nevertheless has started to find the range in last few weeks, proving why he is the school’s 12th all-time leading scorer. Tavernari has maintained a positive outlook as being just the Cougars fourth leading scorer this season. “The reason this team is so good is we have so many options," Tavernari said. BYU is on 12-1 ATS mission in February contests.

With both clubs having two losses in the conference, the straight up winner is perfect 13-0 ATS since 2003.

Villanova at Syracuse (-5.5,157) 9:00E ESPN

While this won’t necessarily determine the champion of the Big East, it will go a long way towards deciding it. This is the most anticipated regular season game of the year in the conference and Scottie Reynolds will lead a veteran Villanova (23-4, 17-9 ATS) squad into the Carrier Dome, long on big game experience. Both teams have talented deep backcourts, which could offset one another, meaning what goes on in the painted area might determine your winner. Forward Antonio Pena, will need the likes of Taylor King, Maurice Sutton, Isaiah Armwood and possibly even Mouphtaou Yarou, all to be a factor for a club that 11-3 and 9-5 ATS away from home.

Coach Jay Wright will play funky defenses designed to confuse, which he can with his guard contingent that are amoeba-like in adaptability, which is why Syracuse (26-2, 17-7 ATS) has to establish dominance in the lane. Finding ways to feed the post to Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku opens up wing players like Wes Johnson and sub Kris Joseph, to score in various ways and clears shooting lines for Andy Rautins and others. The Orangemen are 9-2 ATS versus good defensive teams permitting 42 or less field goal accuracy.

Coaching adjustments will also be important and so will rebounding. The team with most boards is 13-1 SU and ATS.

Sunday, Feb. 28

Richmond at Xavier (-7, 136.6) 1:00E ESPN2

It wasn’t supposed to be this way in the Atlantic 10, with three teams tied for first place this late in the campaign, especially if the roll call was Richmond, Xavier and Temple. The Spiders (22-6, 15-9 ATS) have given opposing teams arachnophobia, with its crawling defense that permits just 60.1 points per game. Richmond plays mostly upperclassmen, many of whom were on 8-22 squad from three years ago. The Spiders defense really started to get under opponents skin when coach Chris Mooney inserted center Darrius Garrett into starting lineup, being a shot blocking specialist. Who makes Richmond go is 5’11 Kevin Anderson, whose elevated the program to first Top 25 ranking in 24 years. The Spiders are 6-2 ATS this season as creepy underdogs.

Xavier (20-7, 17-9 ATS) was thought to have lost too much talent from last season and not defend their A-10 crown. Taking a wider perspective, new coach Chris Mack took over a program widely successful and placed his personal stamp on in, having senior Jason Love follow his lead. What Musketeers insiders have marveled at is Mack sets expectations for each player on the team and demands they meet them every day. He doesn’t holler and scream all the time, but uses several techniques to keep them focused on pushing themselves. Indiana transfer Jordan Crawford has helped this team exceed others expectations, not Xavier’s. The Musketeers are 13-0 and 10-2 ATS at the Cintas Center, destroying foes by 23.4 points per game.

Xavier is 7-2 and 6-3 ATS in previous nine matchups.

Michigan State at Purdue (-4, 135) 4:00E CBS

The way the Big Ten schedule has played out, every couple of days, a national game of importance is on tap and another is coming on Sunday. Despite a collection of top returning players, it has been anything but easy for Michigan State (21-7, 10-17 ATS). After losing three straight to start February, the Spartans had been showing signs of improving daily (until Ohio State), with guard Kalin Lucas back in control from sprained ankle. Others like Durrell Summers are finally playing smarter and Tom Izzo’s crew is 22-10 ATS revenging a same season loss.

A win against Michigan State might well place Purdue (24-3, 13-14 ATS) on the top row to draw a top seed when the tournament bids come out in couple of weeks, however that belief is now clouded with the season ending injury to Robbie Hummel. Like coach Izzo, Matt Painter deserves a boiler room full of credit, riding out tumultuous times in the early part of Big Ten schedule. The Boilermakers stayed the course, fought thru the challenging moments and emerged a mentally tougher club, with road wins at Champaign, East Lansing and Columbus. In Purdue’s latest winning streak, center JaJuan Johnson has been a beast and E'Twaun Moore is their leading scorer. However, Hummel was second leading scorer and rebounder on a team not blessed with size. Purdue will have to adjust swiftly and they are 16-5 ATS vs. teams averaging 16 assists a game.

Purdue is 5-1 SU and ATS when Spartans come to Mackey Arena.

Clemson at Florida State (-4, 133.5) 5:30E FSN

The bracketolgists (is there a more worthless job) of college hoops have seven ACC teams making the field of 65 right now. If this information is to be believed, these two teams are fighting to move up toward better seeds, making this a mega-matchup in the ACC. Clemson (19-8, 12-12 ATS) is like Mark McGwire on roids at home (13-2, 9-3 ATS) and about as intimidating as David Spade on the road (4-5 SU and 0-4 ATS as road pooch). The Tigers are in the midst of playing last three of five conference conflicts away from home and are 0-9 ATS in road tilts taking on teams with a winning record.

Most so-called experts believe Florida State (20-7, 8-14 ATS) has to hold serve in last two home games to punch their ticket for NCAA berth. The Seminoles have been a potent squad at the Donald L. Tucker Center at 12-2, but a woeful wager at 2-8 ATS. Florida State has been at or near the top of the defensive field goal percentage numbers all season in the ACC and has the ability to stifle Clemson, who malfunctions when it comes to half court offense. Center Solomon Alabi has been the team’s leading scorer (12.0) and he’ll have a chance to improve the Noles fortunes.

Clemson is only 3-9 and 6-6 ATS in Tallahassee.

CBB Weekend Hoops Contests

With just a week or two left in regular season action on the collegiate hardwood, the stakes are high. Televised SEC action has teams playing for conference championship or trying to work their way into NCAA field. The Big Ten will have two important tests that will separate the have’s from the have not’s, while league leaders from ACC and Big East try to keep top quality competition from moving in on their space. As a bonus, we’ll throw in at no extra charge an under the wire Bracket Buster battle with the second best team out of the Missouri Valley against the finest from the WAC. Happy wagering!

Saturday, Feb.20

Florida at Mississippi (-4.5, 146) 12:00E CBS (split)

The Gators (18-8, 11-10 ATS) are not going to win SEC East, thus the next order of business is setting wheels into motion having a resume NCAA Tournament officials will like, which as we have found out in recent years includes high caliber road wins. Florida (4-3 and 4-2 ATS as true visitors) will have three chances before the SEC tourney to boost status and they are not helping themselves having lost three of previous six contests. Improved defense and rebounding are tantamount and coach Billy Donovan has taken some of the ball-handling duties away from guard Erving Walker, after he suffered a volume of turnovers, which produced better results initially. Florida has to control pace since they are 0-9 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game.

Ole Miss (17-8, 12-8-1 ATS) is guard-oriented, basically dependant on what they can accomplish outside the paint. Led by Chris Warren, the Rebels are seeking school’s first NCAA Tournament berth since 2002, however Mississippi will probably have to win out to have chance since they have lost four of five (1-3-1 ATS). In the SEC, any win is a good win and coach Andy Kennedy does need more from forward DeAundre Cranston, as opponents are stretching defense further out, not believing Mississippi can score consistently near the basket. Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with 60-80 win percentage over the last three seasons.

The teams have split last six in Oxford with Florida 5-1 ATS.

Illinois at Purdue (-12.5, 137) 4:00E ESPN

Considered as relevant as having an Indian for a mascot until a few years ago after three Big Ten losses in the middle of January, the Fighting Illini (17-9, 9-14-1 ATS) and the departed Chief Illiniwek have proved their not done yet. The light bulb has gone on for Demetri McCamey after a lackluster start and he’s become the team leader. Coach Bruce Webber benched McCamey and more recently Mike Davis and Brandon Paul and each has responded positively, with more assertive play on both ends of the floor, bringing Illinois into title contention, one loss behind leaders Purdue and Michigan State. The Illini lost to the Boilermakers 84-78 earlier and are 25-10 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points.

Purdue (22-3, 13-12 ATS) has also overcame a three game losing streak in Big Ten play to work their way back into virtual tie with Michigan State, winning eight straight (5-3 ATS). The Boilermakers are back to playing team basketball and their “Big Three” of Robbie Hummel, JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore, are delivering like Dominoes. Coach Matt Painter has everyone on the same page, understanding their roles and the defensive intensity has returned, along with greater precision on the offense. Purdue is 12-3 ATS in February at Mackey Arena.

The home team is a mere 7-6-1 ATS since Feb. of 2002, with road team 5-1 ATS in last six meetings.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt (-1, 155) 6:00E ESPN

Ask any SEC coach their least favorite venue in the league and the immediate answer is “Vanderbilt”. Coach John Calipari will have the same hopeless feeling, splitting two halves 60 or more feet away from his team on offense or defense. This feeling will be further intensified since the Commodores are exceptional team, in revenge mode and 13-0 (6-5 ATS) at Memorial Gymnasium. Vanderbilt (20-5, 12-10 ATS) is among the better shooting teams in the country at over 48 percent and is 26-13 ATS as a home underdog or pick.

The last time these teams met on Jan. 30, Kentucky (25-1, 13-11 ATS) built a double digit working margin and never let the Commodores in the game in 85-72 victory. The Wildcats controlled the glass with an astounding +19 rebound margin and scored in the paint when needed. Forward Patrick Patterson deserves props, no longer playing like he was at lido, becoming more aggressive scoring and rebounding. Kentucky is 8-2 ATS in authentic road games having won five of their last six contests.

These clubs are .500 SU and ATS at Nashville since 1997, thought Vanderbilt has won four in a row at home (2-2 ATS). The ‘Dores can tie Kentucky for SEC lead with an upset; however the favorite is 4-1 in previous five conflicts.

Wichita State at Utah State (-7, 126.5) 11:59E ESPN2

The Shockers (22-6, 10-11 ATS) have been an elite team all year in The Valley, with their fine 11-5 record, good for second position behind Northern Iowa. Yet coach Gregg Marshall has concerns. "I think we may have hit a wall," Marshall said, referring to his club 3-2 mark in last five games, covering just one time. Wichita State will have their hands full taking on Utah State who is 62-2 SU at home, playing at 11:00 PM local time and playing at elevation. A win here would help team regain confidence and the Shockers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 non-conference tilts.

Utah State (21-6, 14-8-1 ATS) once again sits atop the WAC at 11-2, riding an 11-game winning streak (9-2 ATS). A large part of the Aggies success under coach Stew Morrill is their ability to work the ball and take quality shots, which they are doing again this season with 48.6 percent shooting percentage. Balance is what makes this offense so reliable, with nation’s best three-point shooting (42.4%) and having at least four scorers in double figure most games. The Aggies won but didn’t cover in last outing and are 15-5-1 against the spread after ATS loss. Utah State is 14-1 and 8-4 ATS at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum this season.

Sunday, Feb. 21

Ohio State at Michigan State (-4, 135) 12:00E CBS (split)

The Big Ten Conference has taken on the appearance of one of Hugh Hefner’s girlfriends, loaded at the top. Two teams fighting to gain control of the league lead are the Buckeyes and Spartans. Ohio State (20-7, 13-14 ATS) has been like a stealth bomber, occasionally seen but seldom noticed. Coach Thad Matta compares this group to the year before Greg Oden and company arrived to advance be NCAA runner-up. “I think this team is probably more efficient than that (2005-06) team was offensively,” Matta said. Led by forward Evan Turner, a player of the year candidate, the Buckeyes are a robust 23-10 ATS when they force 14 to 18 turnovers in a game.

Michigan State (21-6) plays three of last four games at home and has to win all three if they want to maintain Big Ten title hopes. The Spartans are surprisingly not mentally sturdy, especially when Kalin Lucas isn’t on the floor. Durrell Summers, Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe have not been come back better players after finishing second to North Carolina last season, which is why coach Tom Izzo’s club has been play against club at 10-16 ATS, in spite of lofty status. Sparty is 13-1 at home, but just 4-9 ATS this year.

Michigan State has won eight of last 10 over Buckeyes at the Breslin Center and can effectively end there conference title hopes, yet have uneasy 3-5-2 ATS record against the Buckeyes.
StatFox Power Line – Michigan State by 2

Villanova at Pittsburgh (+3, 147) 12:00E CBS (split)

Villanova (22-3, 16-8 ATS) has been undaunted in their pursuit of being Big East regular season champions and look to continue quest on the road. As good as the Wildcats amazing guards are, they couldn’t possibly have such a tremendous record without help inside. 6’8 Antonio Pena is masquerading as a center for Villanova and is their only true low post scorer and does excellent work as reliable interior defender. Taylor King, Isaiah Armwood and 6’11 Maurice Sutton all bring something most games to negate opponents frontline, letting Nova’s guards control the contest. The Wildcats are 11-5 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 games this season.

Pittsburgh (20-6, 13-8-2 ATS) flew by preseason presumptions starting 15-2, but once it was game after game in the Big East, the Panthers looked very much like the squad prognosticators believed they would be, losing four of five at one point. With a favorable slate the rest of the way, Pittsburgh has four game winning streak and can further change minds and attitudes with an upset win here. What doomed Pitt in that losing spell was the offense went stagnant, lacking no ball movement, with too many contested shots. Gilbert Brown and Brad Wanamaker have since recovered and Pitt is 10-1 ATS at home playing teams with a winning record after 15 or more games.

Pittsburgh has tamed the Wildcats at home with 5-0 SU and ATS mark.

Virginia Tech at Duke (-13, 138) 7:45E FSN

It’s the latter part of February and there has been nothing hokey about the Hokies being in contention in the ACC title chase. Virginia Tech (21-4, 10-8-1 ATS) is not your typical ACC squad, they are grittier bunch. “We win ugly games. That’s our team,” junior guard Malcolm Delaney said. The Hokies get after opponents on defense and do the little things like make free throws, especially at winning time. Virginia Tech is 28-16-1 ATS after a conference game over the last three seasons.

Just maybe, this Duke (22-4, 16-8-1 ATS) club is seeing improvement inside. As Dickie V has espoused, Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler are as good scoring-wise as any three players on any team in the country. Lately, the Plumlee brothers, Miles and Mason have been gobbling up more rebounds and points and Andre Dawkins is being heard from again. Even seldom used Ryan Kelly has come thru when fouls or injury have arisen for the Blue Devils. Duke is 8-1 ATS at Cameron Indoor vs. defensive teams conceding 64 or fewer points a game.

Virginia Tech can tie Duke with three losses in league play with a surprising win; however is 2-6 and 3-5 ATS in Durham in its six years as ACC member. The Blue Devils are 14-0 and 10-3 ATS on home floor, winning by gargantuan 27.6 points per game.

Let's have fun on Monday - Winning that is

Take the old 2-1 day every day. Wouldn’t it be great to go 2-1 for a year and bet each day progressively! Have Big Monday system and Top Trend in action in separate games. The former is 82.4 percent and the latter is perfect. While not perfect, Kyle is damn close with the runs he’s on. His next top play is up. Good Luck

What I thought today- What’s not to like about New Mexico? The Lobos were one of the early surprise teams in the country starting 12-0. After a few early stumbles in the Mountain West Conference, New Mexico stabilized and has won nine in a row, including two very impressive road games at UNLV and Utah, raising their record to 23-3 and mostly importantly to all of us 16-8-1 ATS.

Baylor is 19-5 after their 64-62 win over Missouri Saturday. Watching the Bears, they do a lot of things well, which is why it is hard to understand why they have only covered two of their last six games. Tweety Carter and Ekpe Udah are special talents for Scott Drew’s team. Shot selection seems to be the biggest problem at winning time.

Duke is obviously the best team in a so-so ACC league, yet being such a public team, they are 10-3 ATS at home. With a 14-0 SU record, maybe winning by 27.6 points per game has something to do with.

Illinois played like a team on Sunday that ran out of gas playing one tough after another in the Big Ten and couldn’t muster the emotion needed for a focused and clearly superior Ohio State club.

Louisville has become one those teams you can’t trust to bet for or against. The Cardinals stood at 1-6 and 2-5 ATS in true road games after being ripped to shreds by St. John’s 74-55 as 5.5-point road favorites. You would figure they would play better at Syracuse since Rick Pitino is too good of coach. However, after the Orangemen took a lead in the final seven minutes, you had to believe Louisville would again find a way to lose on the road to the No.2 team in the country and instead they fought right back and pulled the upset. Are you watching Villanova?

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against a favorite like Villanova after scoring 80 points or more in a win over a conference rival, against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. Since 2005, this dandy system is 28-6 ATS, 82.4 percent.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Kansas is 12-0 ATS when playing against teams with 60-80 percent win percentage after 15 or more games over the last two seasons, winning by 14.9 PPG.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kyle was 3-0 yesterday, the dude is just freakin’ sick right now. He’s thinking Maryland mashes Virginia.

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Nova takes over Big East with win

Prior to the season, Villanova was expected to be strong contender for the Big East regular season title after their Final Four appearance from a year ago and many of their backcourt players returning. The Wildcats have been exceptional all season at 22-2 (16-7 ATS) and with Syracuse being upset yesterday, can take over sole possession of first place with a victory.

The key player for Villanova is Scottie Reynolds, who directs an offense that scores 85.4 points per game. Reynolds finds ways to involve all his teammates and rarely dominates the ball despite scoring 19 points a game, which is fourth in the Big East.

I don’t want it to always be, Scottie will get us going,” Villanova coach Jay Wright said. “But I’m glad we have that. That’s something I always have in the back of my mind.” The Wildcats handled Providence Saturday 92-81 in non-cover and is 16-6 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival.

Connecticut (14-11, 8-14-1 ATS) was also thought to be among those teams capable of contending for Big East title, but that plan never got off the table. The Huskies are 4-8 in league play and have lost five of last six, covering the spread just one time. Even the return of coach Jim Calhoun (out seven games with undisclosed illness) did nothing to lift the spirits of UConn players who shot a season low 34.6 percent in home loss to Cincinnati 60-48.

“I thought it was one of the worst performances I’ve had here at UConn in 24 years,” said Calhoun. “I’m really incredibly disappointed by the performance, and I’m embarrassed by it, quite frankly.” The Huskies are 5-5 and 2-7 ATS off a loss this season.

That doesn’t mean to sell Connecticut short however. Calhoun is a Hall of Fame coach. In much the same manner, Louisville was sickly at St. John’s, losing by 19 points this past Thursday and came immediately back to knock off No. 2 Syracuse on Sunday. It would not be a shock if the Huskies are ferocious with plenty of spunk tonight in Philadelphia.

DiamondSportsbook.com has UConn catching 9.5-points with total of 155.5. The Huskies are 9-4 ATS as road underdogs and 6-2 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points. Villanova on the other hand is 19-8 ATS playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons and has covered last seven of 10 as a favorite.

This is the opening game on Big Monday starting at 7:00 Eastern and the home teams has covered eight of last 10 meetings.

Tuesday's Top Tips

Got clipped for 1-2 day as the LCC members took it in the shorts on West Virginia. Kyle didn’t play that contest and has enjoyed a terrific season and gives out his top play for Free. The Top Trend is in the NBA following a Southeast Division teams and the Best System is a Super Tuesday tilt at 26-5 ATS. Good Luck

What I found today- (As of 11:30 MST) Let’s be honest, last night’s biggest Monday was a big disappointment for viewers, unless you had Villanova and Kansas. Let’s hope that Super Tuesday has more to offer. College basketball bettors are jumping all over Wisconsin at home against Illinois squad off emotional win over Michigan State Saturday night, moving them from opening -7 to -9.5.

Wake Forest is receiving almost the same treatment, being taken from -4 to -6 at home, however Boston College forward Joe Trapani is doubtful.

College hoops bettors also see two totals going higher than opening numbers. The MAC matchup of Akron and Central Michigan has risen from 128 to 130.5 and in the battle of saints; St. Louis and St. Joseph opened at 126.5 and is now 129.

The NBA is relatively quiet, with Memphis moving from one-point home favorite to underdog; however that could well be a Pick by tipoff.

Much more action on the totals side in the NBA, with the Jazz and Clippers pounded hard on the overnight line, taken from 198.5 to 201 this morning and still trending upward to 202. Though many angles support Chicago and Indiana falling below the number, this total has gone from 202 to 205 with heavy wagering. Lastly, Sac-Town and New York began at 212.5 and resides three points higher at present.

Vancouver in the midst of unreal 14 consecutive road games because of the Olympics and are a -145 money line road choice after opening at -130 against Tampa Bay.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On home teams as a favorite or pick like Vanderbilt off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. Since 2005 this hoops system is 26-5 ATS, 83.9 percent.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) The Washington Loaded Guns are 2-13 ATS in a road game where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points over the last three seasons losing by better than 15 points per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kyle building a nice bankroll in college hoops, 58.7 percent for the season, up over 175 units and likes Colorado State in the MWC.

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Holy Crap! This truly is a Big Monday!

ESPN viewers have suffered a visual assault this past week promoting tonight’s games and rivalry week in general, yet the matchups from the Big East and Big 12 are exemplary. Negative thinkers may believe Villanova and Texas losing on Saturday takes away from the meaningfulness of these contests; however this college basketball writer and sports bettor chooses to think differently, instead it creates even greater urgency for the Wildcats and Longhorns to play their best and prevail. Football may be history for another season, but what a way to kickoff the off-season!

Villanova at West Virginia 7:00E

Villanova (20-2, 15-6 ATS) completes the gruesome task of two games in three days on the Big East conference road. The Wildcats started their game at Georgetown like many cars around Washington D.C. area Saturday, stuck with no place to go in losing 103-90. Nova ran into a focused Hoyas club off a loss to South Florida, as they shot 56 percent from the field, went 8 of 13 from beyond the arc and hit 12 of 13 free throws before halftime in building 50-31 lead. Coach Jay Wright’s squad did more than fair share to contribute to first conference loss, committing 16 turnovers over the opening 20 minutes.

“That was not one of our better performances, but you’ve got to give Georgetown most of the credit. They jumped on us,” coach Wright said. The Wildcats have won and covered both their games this season with one day between contests and is 18-6 ATS playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.

West Virginia (19-3, 9-12 ATS) is in second place, one game behind Villanova and Syracuse and played Saturday in a strange contest even for them. St. John’s was a popular home favorite among sports handicappers receiving 7.5-points with the Mountaineers in look-ahead situation. It certainly seemed like a smart wager with the Red Storm up 16-points in the first half and leading 33-22 at halftime. Coach Bob Huggins lit into his team and six minutes in the second half, they went on 16-0 run on the way to a 57-27 final 20 minutes, for the win and cover.

With a six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS) the Mountaineers are getting their house in order. Devin Ebanks is scoring better, Truck Bryant has regained his shooting eye and though Kevin Jones has been slightly off, he kills opposing teams with his assertive offensive rebounding, adding points in that manner. Da’Sean Butler is West Virginia brightest star and is playing like it. The bottom line, coach Bob Huggins is starting to see the team that started 11-0, albeit, against stiffer competition these days and his club is 10-4 ATS in February.

This has all the makings of a real Big East physical war in which the basketball won’t be pretty, but entertaining nevertheless. DiamondSportsbook.com has West Virginia as five-point favorite with total of 150 and they are 4-1 SU and ATS the last five times Nova came calling.

Villanova is 10-4 ATS facing clubs with winning records and is 5-2 SU and on the road this campaign. The Mountaineers are 11-1 and 4-7 ATS at home and university officials hope the only thing the fans bring is a full throat to scream positively for their team.

Kansas at Texas 9:00E

Studying tape of Texas (19-4, 9-10 ATS) early in the season, the most discernable difference is defensive on-the-ball pressure. The Longhorns played with greater enthusiasm in the first part of the year and have to rekindle that feeling, especially against a team like No. 1 Kansas. The 80-71 loss at Oklahoma as a touchdown favorite was the lowest point of the season for a club that has lost four of six and covered the spread once since Dec.22 (1-9 ATS).

Oklahoma deserved credit for making nine 3-point bombs in the first half, but a hand up or denial defense would have helped. According to Orangebloods.com, Texas missed anywhere from 8 to 17 layups against a second-rate Sooners frontline and the free throw shooting was hysterical if it wasn’t so sad (10 of 27).

Texas is at the top of their game when the points are distributed. Damion James, Avery Bradley and for the most part Dexter Pittman hit their averages, but when Justin Mason, Dogus Balbay, Gary Johnson and J’Covan Brown are at or near double digits, Texas is that much better. The Horns are 31-18 ATS at home against offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a contest.

After suffering brief slump caused by internal and external forces, center Cole Aldrich is back and Kansas (22-1, 9-10-1 ATS) is back on track. The big man is exhibiting many of the qualities why he is being compared to former NBA great Kevin McHale. His presence along with a smokin’ hot Marcus Morris, gives the Jayhawks power in the paint, matched with devastating perimeter game. Kansas plays the 94-foot game led by PG Sherron Collins and the chemistry issue that manifested itself is to behind this team. The Jayhawks are 11-3 ATS vs. clubs outscoring their opponents by eight points a contest after 15 or games on the year.

It’s not official, but if Texas can’t knock off top-ranked Kansas in Austin, their season might be over, trying to be elite club. Both teams are Big Monday winners, with the Longhorns 23-9 ATS and the Jayhawks 16-5 ATS to start another work week.

Kansas is a 1.5-point road favorite and the straight up winner is 8-2 ATS in last 10 meetings, including three in a row.

Saturday College Basketball Matchups

Of course the Super Bowl is coming, but let’s take a one day sabbatical before Sunday and sit down and get into college basketball. Of course televised action goes from morning to night and so does your wagering opportunities. Check information on the Big East, A-10, Big Ten, ACC, Mountain West and even a battle for first place in Conference USA, with Memphis not included. Tomorrow is an American institution, however Saturday is all about the orange (Clark Kellogg reference) and sharing the sugar (Steve Lavin reference), make it work for you.

Villanova at Georgetown (-2, 151)12:00E ESPN

While the jury is still out on what kind of pro prospect Scottie Reynolds might be, the senior guard has proven to be an exceptional collegiate basketball player. You can count on one hand the number of times Reynolds has tried to force the action this season and his shooting percentage is at a career high, based on basketball IQ and what the opponent is offering. He’s also tougher than a $3 steak which is why Villanova (20-1, 15-5 ATS) is 10-2 ATS in Saturday road games the last three seasons.

It’s actually fairly remarkable Georgetown (16-5, 9-8 ATS) is as good as it is this season. The Hoyas has struck out more the Phillies Ryan Howard when turning to the bench for point production. The cupboard has been bare for Coach John Thompson III, placing a greater burden on his starters to lead the way. If Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe or Chris Wright has an off night (like Wright did in scoring eight points in South Florida loss), especially against the better teams, it is very much like a disconnected cell phone call, everything goes quiet.
Someone for the G-Town has to answer or they fall to 1-9 ATS February home games since 2008.

Georgetown is 1-6 and lamentable 0-7 ATS against Nova at home since 1997.

Xavier at Dayton (-3, 135.5) 12:00E ESPN2

The Musketeers (16-6, 14-7 ATS)were not supposed to be as formidable after three A-10 titles, 25 or more wins and two visits to Sweet Sixteen. New coach Chris Mack had to gain the trust of old and new players, however he couldn’t have counted on what guard Jamal Crawford would mean to Xavier, who sits atop the conference leaderboard at 8-1. The transfer not only became a YouTube sensation dunking on LeBron James this past summer, but he is the team’s leading scorer, on a club that brought back just enough veteran talent to keep them in A-10 contention this season. Xavier is 12-2 ATS playing teams with 60-80 percent win percentage since last year.

The team believed capable of unseating Xavier in 2010 was Dayton; however the Flyers have not been clutch at winning time, losing three conference contests by six total points. Dayton (15-6, 10-8 ATS) has been outscored by over 40 points this season in the final five minutes of regulation play, shooting around 35 percent (43% normally). Dayton’s strength also turns out to be one its weaknesses. The Flyers have six players averaging six or more points, but lack a go to scorer at crunch time. They are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records.

Dayton is playing into revenge and is 5-1 SU and ATS as home favorite against Xavier.

Wake Forest at Virginia (-3.5, 134.5)12:00E ESPN Full Court

Coming into this year’s ACC campaign, one of the teams not presumed to compete for the conference crown was Virginia (14-6, 9-6 ATS). Yet past the quarter point of the league schedule, the Cavaliers are right in the mix. How could this be? It starts with new coach Tony Bennett stressing the little things- free throw shooting, assists to turnovers ratio and playing defense out to 25 feet. The older Virginia players have seen the value of this style and like W’s. The Cavs are 39-22 ATS at home vs. teams making 45 or percent of shots past the halfway point of season.

Wake Forest (15-5, 9-8 ATS) lost by 20 points at Duke and showed their resolve in knocking out North Carolina 82-69 at Chapel Hill in next outing. If senior Ishmael Smith can continue to put up impressive numbers, the Demon Deacons are going to be a fecund club the rest of the way. Al-Farouq Aminu’s game is ever-expanding and he’s unstoppable near the bucket. If freshmen C.J. Harris and Ari Stewart can be a touch more consistent shooting, they already know center Chas McFarland will do his job in the paint. Wake has to protect the ball, as they are 25-43 ATS in road games when they commit three to seven more turnovers than opponents.

Virginia is 7-3 and 6-4 ATS at Charlottesville against Demon Deacons.

Wisconsin at Michigan (+1, 116.5) 4:00E CBS

Not exactly Game of the Weekend material for the Super Bowl network, but what the heck, Big Ten basketball means eyeballs. Wisconsin’s margin of error without injured Jon Leuer is smaller than Verne Troyer (Mini-Me). After stern matchups with Purdue and Michigan State, the Badgers head the Ann Arbor to build on fine performance over the Spartans. Trevon Hughes has continued to produce, however sophomore Jordan Taylor and Keaton Nankivil has raised his level of play in Leuer’s absence and Wisky is 10-5 ATS as a road favorite or pick.

Too their credit, Michigan (11-11, 10-8 ATS) has been beating oddsmakers expectations since January with 8-2 spread mark, nonetheless they have failed to meet their own beliefs. The Wolverines thought they were NCAA tournament ready after last season, but have danced around .500 most of the season instead. More than anything Michigan players lacked the internal commitment to start the season and have given away apparent wins late in games. Ranking last in the Big Ten in rebounding, the Wolverines are 20-43 ATS historically when they grab four to nine fewer boards per game.

The Badgers (17-5, 12-8 ATS) have taken nine of last 10 meetings with 6-4 ATS mark.

BYU at UNLV (-1, 146.5) 4:00E VERSUS

Jimmer Fredette is back! After battling mononucleosis in late December, the junior guard has been lighting up Mountain West foes and is the leading reason why BYU (22-2, 12-9 ATS) has one the finest records in college basketball. The Cougars formula for success is simple; they lead the conference in field goal percentage offense and defense. This is a talented club who understands their roles and plays accordingly. BYU is 15-4 ATS in road games over the last two seasons and 8-0 ATS is February.

UNLV coaches and players understand any chance of winning the conference rests with winning this MWC contest. The Runnin’ Rebels (18-4, 14-6 ATS) have their deepest team since Lon Kruger arrived, however the loss of starting guard Derrick Jasper to injury will test that belief, especially for all he does. This signal’s Tre’Von Willis and Chace Stanback will have to play up a level and UNLV is 7-1 ATS facing teams outscoring their opponents by four or points a game this season.

BYU is 3-10 and 3-7 ATS in Sin City the last dozen years.

Michigan State at Illinois (+1.5, 126) 9:00E ESPN

Michigan State (19-4, 8-14 ATS) is in the featured spotlight for this ESPN prime time affair. Coach Tom Izzo must have a lucky rabbit’s foot or something, having won a couple of recent Big Ten road games by a single digit until being bounced by the Badgers 67-49 for their first conference loss. Actually Izzo’s lucky charm is junior Kalin Lucas. The point guard has put the dagger in twice with final seconds’ baskets and been the ring leader in finding teammates in quality comebacks. Lucas quote – “I just think at clutch time, I want to have the ball in my hands.” Unfortunately Lucas is game time decision with a sprained ankle. The Spartans are 8-2 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less or pick over the last three seasons.

The problem won’t go away by itself and coach Bruce Weber knows it. For Illinois (15-8, 7-13-1 ATS), there is a direct link to leadership and winning. When a Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale or Demetri McCamey assumes the role of leader in any game, the Illini have plenty of fight and either wins or are highly competitive. If this trio becomes a group of shrinking violets, Illinois is doomed for failure. Coach Webber is hoarse from preaching, togetherness, toughness and playing hard, the team just hasn’t taken it to heart and is 7-13-1 ATS this season.

The Spartans are 4-6 and 3-7 ATS at Champaign in last 10, but have won and covered previous two.

Tulsa at UTEP (-5, 133.5)10:00E ESPN2

Sole possession of first place in Conference USA is on the line in this late night affair. With Memphis not the dominant team, opportunities exist for others like Tulsa (18-4, 7-11-1 ATS) and UTEP (16-5, 7-10 ATS), who are both 7-1 in league action. The winner of the conference is not guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance; however they improve their case dramatically. The two studs for the Golden Hurricane are seniors Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh and they bailed them out in 73-69 win at Marshall Wednesday night, after trailing the majority of the contest. They will be needed again, however Tulsa is just 2-7-1 ATS on the road.

The Miners have won six straight after knocking off Houston 65-58. UTEP has five players averaging 10 or more points and former Louisville bad boy Derrick Caracter should have a terrific battle with Jordan in the paint. The Miners also have 6’11 Arnett Moultrie to work against the 7’0 Jordan. Both teams score in the 70’s and are above average defensively, thus no visible differences in what should a magical night in El Paso for coach Tony Barbee and his club, who has failed to cover their last six home games.

Tulsa has covered last eight meetings (6-2 SU), including previous five at the Don Haskins Center, walking away victorious three times.

CBB HOME AND AWAY DICHOTOMIES…

HOME AND AWAY DICHOTOMIES… Know Where Your Team Performs Best

With the 2009-10 College Hoops regular season entering the month before the Big Dance, it’s important to get a pulse on how teams are performing both at home and on the road this campaign.

While there is no certainty that teams will continue to either over-or-under achieve in their best or worst roles, there is no sense in hoping teams will change their stripes at this stage of the season.

Let’s examine the Top Five best and the very worst results by teams in games played at home and on the road through Monday, January 31of this season. All results are ATS…

COLLEGE BASKETBALL HOME TEAMS

Moneymakers:

1. Kansas State 7-1
2. San Jose State 7-1
3. Villanova 5-1
4. Wichita State 5-1-1
5. Oklahoma State 4-1-1

Moneyburners:

1. Duquesne 0-5
2. Massachusetts 0-5
3. TCU 1-9
4. Penn State 1-7
5. South Alabama 1-7-1

COLLEGE BASKETBALL ROAD TEAMS

Moneymakers:
1. St. Mary’s 6-1
2. Maryland 5-1
3. Mississippi 5-1
4. Northern Iowa 5-1-1
5. Syracuse, Villanova 4-1

Moneyburners:

1. Denver 0-8
2. Washington 0-5
3. California 0-4-1
4. Stanford 1-7
5. Ohio State, Western Kentucky 1-6

There you have it. The best and worst performances by teams in a starring role to date this season. While not quite Oscar worthy, it’s best to remember that forewarned is forearmed…

Written by Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com.

Hump Day Spotlights Ranked Teams

Other than Saturday, Wednesday is the most time-consuming and harried for the sports basketball bettor. Betting college basketball properly involves a great deal of time, as does looking thru a full slate of NBA encounters. Today we’ll focus on the four key games in college hoops pertaining to conference play.

Villanova on historical pace

Last season’s trip to the Final Four helped bring Villanova back into the discussion about the best teams in college basketball. For an encore, coach Jay Wright’s team is trying to better that. The Wildcats 18-1 start (14-4 ATS) matches the record of a Villanova team from 59 years ago and they remain the only unbeaten club in the taxing Big East Conference at 7-0. Their lone defeat (75-65) was to fellow city member Temple back on Dec. 13 and that loss looks far better today with the Owls not having lost in A-10 action.

Villanova has racked up nine consecutive wins since then and is 10-3 ATS after three or more consecutive wins this season. Led by Scottie Reynolds, the Wildcats are tough, have great resolve and are a lot like another Philly icon from the movies, Rocky, who has to be knocked out in order to be defeated. There isn’t much this team doesn’t do right, shooting almost 47 percent, 38.4 percent from downtown and convert better than 75 percent from the charity stripe. When it comes to effort, they hold opposing teams to 39.5 percent shooting and out-rebound them by seven a game. No wonder they are 10-3 ATS off a game where they covered the spread this season.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Nova as 10.5-point home favorites, with total of 167 at the Wachovia Center. This is their second trip this season into this venue and Villanova is 12-4 ATS as a favorite and will have to deal with Luke Harangody of Notre Dame, the Big East’s leading scorer at 24.7 points a game. The Fighting Irish (15-5, 7-6-1 ATS) can match scores with Villanova, however is nowhere near as skilled defensively. Notre Dame is 4-13 ATS in road games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game over the last two seasons. ESPN has coverage at 7 Eastern.

Vandy is dandy

With top-ranked Kentucky suffering their first loss of the season, only one squad remains undefeated in the SEC, which is confounding Vanderbilt (15-3, 9-6 ATS). The Commodores have run off nine straight wins since losing to Illinois and Western Kentucky in the early days of December. Vanderbilt is 5-0 in the SEC for the first time in 44 years and is led by junior center A.J. Ogilvy. Vandy works the ball expertly to find quality shots and makes 49.7 of attempts as a team which explains 6-2 ATS record in this hot streak.

Laying in wait is ambitious in-state rival Tennessee (15-3, 8-7 ATS), who lost their first conference game at Georgia 78-63 this past Saturday. Coach Bruce Pearl knows Vanderbilt will play zone, daring his inconsistent three-point attack to beat them deep. The Tennessee fans will be in full throat as their team is 26-11 ATS at home games playing against a top-level team with a win percentage of 80 percent or higher. The Vols are 6.5-point favorites on ESPNU starting at 7 Eastern and the Vanderbilt guards will have to hold up to the pressure defense better than their predecessors, as they are 10-23 ATS in road games versus teams forcing 18 or more turnovers.

Blue Devils defense looks to respond again

Duke was upset last week at N.C. State 88-74, allowing the Wolfpack to make 58.2 percent of shots. It didn’t matter to coach Mike Krzyzewski if N.C. State was just having a hot shooting night, his team had to defend better and did they ever. At a hostile Clemson environment, they held the revenge-minded Tigers to 47 points on 37.5 percent shooting. Duke (16-3, 12-6 ATS) returns home where they score 91.6 points per game to face a Florida State (15-4, 4-10 ATS) squad that can also D-it up.

Coming into tonight, the Seminoles are the top-rated defense team in the country in field goal percentage at 35.5. Florida State (15-4, 4-10 ATS) is long and athletic, forcing 16.7 turnovers a game and almost seven rejections. What holds the Noles back from being elite team is perimeter shooting, which explains poor spread record this season. This is shown by Florida State having 2-9 ATS mark vs. defensive teams with shooting percentage defense of 42 percent or less this season.

Duke shoots over 50 percent on its home floor and remarkable 43.2 percent from beyond the arc, which in part is why oddsmakers have them as 13-point favorites with total of 140. The Dukies are 13-4 ATS at home when the total is 140 to 149.5; however are just 3-7 ATS in Durham against the Seminoles despite winning nine of 10. Dick Vitale will be singing the praises of Coach K and the Dukies starting at 9 Eastern.

Magical Mountain West matchup

Like the girl in last year’s KFC commercial, nobody saw two ranked teams from the Mountain West Conference squaring off in late January. BYU (20-1, 11-7 ATS) is led by point guard Jimmer Fredette, who continues to play heavy minutes in spite of battling the affects of mononucleosis. Fredette, besides being an excellent shooter is top notch passer to the Cougars big people. This is why they are shooting 50.7 percent from the field, fourth in the country. BYU is the last unbeaten club in the MWC and is 15-3 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.

New Mexico (18-3, 13-7 ATS) was the biggest pleasant surprise in the country this side of Syracuse back in December. Most believed the Lobos suffering back to back losses in the first part of January was the signal this team had overachieved and was headed back to where most expected them to be. However, coach Steve Alford’s squad has again proved the critics wrong with four consecutive W’s and they are 12-3 ATS in home games after three consecutive conference contests since 2006-07 campaign.

The line has jumped around, but presently the Lobos are favored by two-points and are 9-0 ATS after two straight wins by 15 points or more. New Mexico is 4-2 in conference and needs this win to keep title hopes alive. This matchup starts at 10 Eastern and is on the Mountain Network.

Trustworthy College Basketball Teams to Bet

All of us go thru our lives trying to find people and things we can depend on. If we go out to eat, we look to go to places where the food is good or trust the judgment of our friends, for a tasty meal. When we need services for cars, air-conditioning or heat and possibly appliances that breakdown, we want to be able to trust someone to fix the problem at a fair price.

The same logic applies to sports betting. How often has anyone of us bet on a team maybe we don’t wager on a great deal, play them, lose the bet and forget about playing that team for an extended period because we’ve been burned by them? It happens to all of us making knee-jerk reactions, rightly or wrongly. We instead retreat back to situations or in this instance, teams we can trust.

With the college basketball season past the halfway point, we have enough games in the hopper to make observations about certain teams making them worthy of consideration for our wagering dollars or possibly not. We are aware what is true in sports wagering today, isn’t necessarily so in a week. Nevertheless, a collection of teams have been found to be trustworthy looking at two simple situations this season.

One such instance is teams off a spread loss. We all know you can’t win every bet and you have to play the percentages. One bad week does not a season make, but realistically, how many of us make a bet before the game thinking we are going to lose. When our wager goes south in the first 10 minutes, we have all said “I knew this was going to lose”, yet the fact remains we believed enough in the team to actually place the bet, thus we are being revisionists if nothing else.

Teams off a spread loss record (SU & ATS)
BYU 6-1, 5-1 ATS
Detroit 3-2, 5-0
Duke 6-0, 5-1
Georgetown 6-0, 4-1-1
Kansas 6-1, 4-1-1
Temple 6-1, 5-2
Valparaiso 4-2, 4-0-1
Xavier 6-1, 6-1

For the most part, the teams on this list have pedigree in terms of winning and expectations. Duke, Georgetown and Kansas are going to be somewhat overvalued by oddsmakers and when they come off a less than desirable result as a team and the perception of the head coach, they go right back to work and solve the issues. That is not to say these teams are going to make this group each year, rather, the group of individuals on this particular team is more adaptive, willing to listen to their coach, have team leaders and the talent to immediately improve and will likely get a somewhat fairer price labeled on them especially off a loss.

BYU and Xavier would also fit similar reasoning, just not being as public teams for the normal sports bettor.

Temple lost three very good players from last year’s team, however coach Fran Dunphy has elevated the Owls program thru recruiting to the point where they can reload as opposed to rebuild. Valparaiso is well coached by Homer Drew with limited talent, while Detroit is regaining status under second year coach Ray McCallum having the players buying into his system after being down for years.

The next grouping we seek is teams off a spread victory. Here the idea is to find teams that cover the number and continue to beat those setting the lines. For this contingent, we want to entrust teams that can build on momentum and have proven that they can cover the spread and one setback isn’t going to hold them back since they can climb right back in the saddle and win again and continue on.

Teams off a spread win record (SU & ATS)
Baylor 6-3, 5-2 ATS
Clemson 9-0, 6-1
College of Charleston 8-2, 6-2-1
Gonzaga 9-0, 6-2
Kansas State 9-1, 5-1
Morehead State 7-2, 5-1
Northeastern 10-1, 8-2-1
Siena 6-1, 5-0
South Florida 7-3, 7-2
Southern Miss 7-2, 5-1
St. Mary’s 11-2, 9-3
Syracuse 11-1, 8-3
Texas 8-0, 5-1
Villanova 13-0, 10-3

What’s not to like about these winners! Some of the very finest teams in the country are within this group and having seen many of them play; the ability is certainly there to continue winning ways, as long as the oddmakers don’t start adding too many points on their ledger. Whenever time is allotted to dig a little deeper, surprise teams always emerge. A Northeastern, picked to finish fifth in the Colonial Athletic Conference steps forward. Most basketball bettors are aware of Murray State from the Ohio Valley, but Morehead State led by possible OVC Player of the Rear Kenneth Faried, could be going back to NCAA Tournament after last season’s astonishing appearance.

We also find teams in this latter group that deserve their own special mention. These are true “under the radar” squads not gathering much attention, possibly a little hard to stomach, however their wagering results after a cover are tremendous in spite of sketchy SU records.

Teams off a spread win with unimpressive SU record (SU & ATS)
Drake 5-4, 6-1-1 ATS
Sacramento State 3-10, 8-3
Wyoming 2-6, 6-0

Drake is expediently acquiring notoriety and trust with 5-1 and 6-0 ATS mark in last six outings, all as underdogs. Sacramento State is being outscored by six points per game after a spread cover, which is great news since they have mostly received 10 or more points in putting together 7-14 campaign. The Hornets might be 3-14 as underdogs, but the cha-ching heard is 13-4 ATS record. Wyoming to is outscored after covering the number (3.3 PPG), nonetheless they must be being overlooked by Mountain West teams and others with 7-2 ATS mark as humble and profitable dogs.

It pays to go with things you can trust, even in college basketball betting.