MLB Series Wagering - Twins at Tigers

For the large majority of the season, Minnesota has been the best team in the American League Central, however they have been knocked off that lofty perch like a bunch of Russian spies, having lost to 11 of 16 and passed by Detroit and Chicago. Where have the Twins (45-40, -2.5 units) gone wrong, it’s simple, but it gets complicated. Minnesota is 19-10 (+4.4) in AL Central games, yet is 19-23 on the road. The Twins can still return to the top of the heap by winning division tilts; however they still have to play 40 more road contests, which will necessitate better results to climb up that ladder.

Detroit (46-37, +7.9) has jumped to the front of line, being winners of seven of last 10, thanks to flexing muscles with the heavy lumber. The Tigers have average 5.9 runs per contest in this stretch and reached double digit hits eight times, including last six outings. The always dangerous Miguel Cabrera is hotter than Jennifer Aniston in Smart Water ads, sporting a 16-game hitting streak. In his last dozen games, Cabrera is batting scorching .467, with nine extra base hits among his 21 base knocks and 13 RBI’s. “I’m looking forward to Friday,” said Cabrera. No kidding the way is swinging the bat.

The Twins trail the Tigers by two games in the standings and the opener sets up as good pitching matchup. Francisco Liriano (6-6, 3.32 ERA) gives it a go against Detroit, who is 15-9 this season against left-handed starters. Liriano however is 4-2 (3.49) lifetime vs. the Tigers and the Twinkies are tough on Friday nights with 27-12 record since last year.

Detroit ace Jason Verlander (10-5, 3.85) will toe the rubber for his club and is a -127 money line favorite at many online sports betting outlets. Verlander is just 5-7 (4.03) against Minnesota, nevertheless is 34-14 when playing on real grass (Tigers record). Detroit is 28-12 at home vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season.

Game 1 Edge: Detroit

The biggest reason for the Tigers leapfrogging to division leadership is their play at Comerica Park. Detroit is an American League best 30-12 on home turf (MLB finest +15.9 units to start the weekend), batting .287 as a team with an on-base percentage of .354. Their play of late has been even more impressive, having won 15 of previous 17 in MoTown.

Manager Jim Leyland hands the ball to Jeremy Bonderman (4-6, 4.81), who after making seven of eight quality starts didn’t have much to show for it (2-3 record). He’s been racked in last three outings (25 hits and15 runs in 16 1/3 innings), with his slider not having usual bite and been hanging too many pitches. The Tigers have dropped last five contests at home when Bonderman faces winning club.

Minnesota will hope Justin Morneau can go for this battle if not the opener after suffering a mild concussion (loose term unless you suffered one) when he was accidentally kneed in the head Wednesday night. Morneau starts the series tied for second in hitting in the AL with .345 average and has 18 home runs along with 56 RBI’s.

For this Fox 4:10 Eastern conflict, Nick Blackburn (7-6, 6.00) will be Minny’s middle game starter. Blackburn is in danger of falling out of the rotation, allowing four or more earned runs in six of last seven starts, leading to capacious ERA of 9.28. That figure is actually lower than his 9.40 earned run average in road starts and Minnesota is languid 3-15 in Blackburn’s pitching attempts in road uniform.

Game 2 Edge: Detroit

Like Saturday, the last contest before the All-Star break will be a day game. This is an area Detroit has flourished with 22-13 record compared to Minnesota’s 14-17 mark.

Earlier this week skipper Ron Gardenhire flipped-flopped starting pitchers Carl Pavano and Kevin Slowey to give Pavano (9-6, 3.58), the club’s most consistent starter, one more outing before the break. The Twins right-hander pitches to contact, but doesn’t get into a great deal of trouble by limiting walks. Minny could likely use a strong outing from Pavano since they are 20-39 in road games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last three seasons.
Detroit will go with 22-year old Andrew Oliver (0-2, 5.93) who is making just his fourth big league start and second versus the Twins. The lefty throws a late moving mid-90’s fastball and if can be more consistent around the plate with slider and change, could develop into a top quality starter.

Game 3 Edge: Minnesota

Both teams feature excellent bullpens, which suggest how the starters perform, will likely determine the series. Detroit has opening game edge and Minnesota in the closer. That leaves the middle encounter as possible decider. The Tigers are playing solid baseball, with tremendous home record and 27-20 mark in games decided by three or less runs. Though the Twins have taken six of first nine meetings in 2010, Detroit looks like the best series wager.

Sportsbooks series odds: Minnesota +110, Detroit -140

3Daily Winners Pick: Detroit

Sunday action and concert review

As it turns out, rather lucky just to be 1-2 on Saturday, with the Falcons late score. Though we lost on the Halos, coming right back with them today with Best System at 38-7. The Top Trend will be featured in Sunday night baseball and Mark has Free Play and looks to keep winning. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday – Went to concert last night. First up was Cheap Trick and they rocked and the crowd got into it, unusual for the first of three bands. It was blazing hot with temperature probably not getting below 100 degrees until the very end (outdoor concert obviously). I grew up in Rockford, Ill. so I have seen Cheap Trick literally hundreds of times. Guitarist Rick Nielsen pulled out his five-neck guitar and bragged (kiddingly) “our new songs just came out and it is the top seller in the country on 8-track”.

Next up was Poison and though not a big fan, Brett Michaels put on a great show. Lots of energy and he came across very genuine, a big supporter of the troops overseas.

Last was Def Leppard. They had cool stage setup and Joe Elliot gave a commanding performance as singer. Of course they played all the hits and I always gave them a ton of credit for sticking with drummer Rick Allen after he lost his arm. I found it interesting that Allen learned to use both his feet to play some the drum parts from the earlier albums that required different beats.

A sold out show and everybody and fun.

Announcement- On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Starting this Saturday and on Sunday once the NFL begins, I will have a running analysis of all the college football action on those days. I’ll have all my TV’s lined up, working the remote as well as the computer. Sign up at Twitter and let’s have some fun and all learn something.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like the Angels with a money line of -150 or more, after three straight games where they committed no errors, starting a pitcher who was hit for five or more runs in his last two outings. Dating back to when Semi-Charmed Life by Third Eye Blind was a hit song, this system is 38-7, 84.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Atlanta Braves are 3-16 in road games after a win by six runs or more over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Mark has another winner here and likes Detroit and Jason Verlander to come out victorious.

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StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet – Yours truly a writer.

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MLB Series Wagering- Twins at Tigers

For most of the season, the Minnesota Twins have been a floundering baseball club, not being good enough to run neck and neck with Detroit in the AL Central, nor bad enough to hang out with Cleveland and Kansas City. This weekend in the Motor City, they will have chance to change people’s perception of them, including their own.

The Twins (53-55, -7.8 units) have lost five of six and are undernourished 22-32 on the road, scoring 4.3 runs per game. Minnesota is in third place, 4 ½ games behind Detroit and knows the significance of turning season around quickly. “They’re all important when you’re chasing,” Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire said. “It’s in our division and on the road. You don’t want to get too far behind or too far under .500.”

Detroit (57-50, +2.2 units) on the other hand has been a punishing home team. The Tigers are 34-17 at Comerica Park, which ties them for the fourth best home record with Tampa Bay and they are very profitable +12.4 units. Besides wanting to create distance between Central Division rivals, Detroit wants to get Armando Galarraga (5-10, 5.22 ERA) pointed in opposite direction. Galarraga has lost his last three decisions (Tigers have fallen five straight when Galarraga starts), having last won on June 30 against Oakland. "No pitcher in the history of the game can hide from the fact that you've got to throw strikes," manager Jim Leyland said in reference to his right-hander. "Every pitching coach talks about the same thing: Strike one. There's nothing new about that, but there's also a lot of truth to that.” Detroit is a -110 home favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com with total of 9.5, with Galarraga and teammates 2-12 in night games.

Minnesota will counter with Anthony Swarzak (3-4, 4.25), who was among the pitchers torn up by the Los Angeles Angels last weekend. Swarzak is a rookie and though his numbers are not overly impressive, he’s 2-0, with 2.22 ERA pitching on the road in four starts (Twins 3-1). With Minnesota off a tough 2-1 loss yesterday at Cleveland, they are 8-0 after losing by a single run versus a division rival over the last two seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Minnesota

Saturday’s contest will have the Tigers as large chalk favorites and they come into this series 28-12 as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. The main reason for being tagged with big number is because Jason Verlander (12-5, 3.29) is Detroit’s starting pitcher. Twins hitters don’t figure to have an easy time with hard throwing right-hander. Those swinging from the right side of the plate are batting only .223 against Verlander and he has 1.66 ERA this season in home games. Overall, Verlander and Detroit are 22-4 at Comerica against teams with losing records.

With Minny starting this series with 28-10 record after having lost five or six of their last seven games over the last two years, they will need Glen Perkins (6-7, 5.95) to do a 180-degree turn, after being shelled for season highs in runs (9) and hits (12) by the Halos. Perkins usually does a descent job once thru the batting order, but because he lacks an “out’ pitch, hitters are very comfortable the second or third time around. The only bright news is Perkins and the Twins are 10-4 when he hurls in Game 2’s. Totals players should be aware 10 of those 14 starts have gone OVER.

Game 2 Edge: Detroit

The scheduled Sunday afternoon pitchers are Scott Baker (9-7, 4.59) for Minnesota and Jarrod Washburn (8-7, 2.93) for Detroit. Baker was horrible to start 2009, but has emerged as Gardenhire’s ace since June. Baker is 7-1 since June 4, allowing three or less runs in 10 of his last dozen starts. Watch the money line on him since Baker and the Twinkies are 1-6 as underdogs.

Washburn was brought in to solidify Tigers staff and he suffered rocky first game wearing the “D” for a lid, giving up six runs in just over five innings against Baltimore in taking the loss. From pitching effectiveness perspective, he’s on pace to have career low ERA and could have his most wins since 2002 World Series season with the Angels (18). Left-handed batters are hitting only .184 against him, which could neutralize the M&M boys from Minnesota. Washburn is 4-2 in day games (team’s record) with 2.29 ERA and he’s on the right team with the Tigers 24-14 playing without lights.

Game 3 Edge: Detroit

Because our guest selectors have been performing so well with 4-0 record, we’ll bring in another, professional gambler named Sal to make the pick.

“It’s tempting to pick the Twins because they have won six of eight against Detroit and have winning record (11-9) at Comerica the last three years. Verlander will dominate Game 2 for Detroit. Game 1 is likely an Over with two pitchers that will be lucky to see the sixth (inning). I’ll give the Twins the nod in the opener. This brings it down to Sunday. As much as I like Baker right now, the Tigers play so well at home and the Twins stink as visitors. Washburn settles down with new club and Detroit wins the series.”

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Minnesota +135, Detroit -170

3DWPick: Detroit

2009 Record – 6-9