CBB Giants in Action Thursday

Duke and Kentucky are both involved in attempting to be on the top line where the four seeds of the NCAA Tournament will reside in just over two weeks and each will look to continue to make sure they are in the conversation, being in action on Thursday night on ESPN2. Take a gander at each team and see if you believe they belong as a top seed and review the situation to see if you think they are play on team.

Tulsa at Duke 7:00E

The last several years, coach Mike Krzyzewski has scheduled one of these non-conference games in February with two things in mind. One, to break up the strain of playing in the ACC and also give his players a chance to face an average to better than average team, typically fighting to earn a NCAA berth. This current collection of Blue Devils’ players has never won a ACC title and that is foremost on their minds, leading Maryland by a game, nonetheless this great preparation taking on unknown opponent as this club is starting to gel, having won six straight and eight of nine (5-3-1 ATS).

Coach K knows what he’s going to get from his Big Three (Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler) and recently he’s been working on putting certain players like Lance Thomas, center Brian Zoubek and the Plumlee brothers in more comfortable positions on the floor for them to score. Duke (23-4, 16-9-1 ATS) is 15-0 and 10-4 ATS at home this season.

With Memphis presumably down at the start of the year, Tulsa (19-8, 7-16-1 ATS) believed this might be their opportunity to take charge of Conference USA, with its two senior leaders. Unfortunately the rest of the league has not cooperated and the Golden Hurricane is distant fifth in the league, having lost four of last five to teams that are ahead of them in the standings. Coach Doug Wojcik has never been able to develop a bench and possibly the heavy minutes the starters are playing is taking a toll. Tulsa’s two best players are guard Ben Uzoh and center Jerome Jordan, who’s really blossomed into a very good offensive player. Tulsa has not covered a spread since Jan. 16, a span of 10 games.

Bookmaker.com has Duke as 18-point favorites and they are 12-2 and 8-5 ATS in non-conference action. The Blue Devils are 13-1 and 9-3-1 ATS with three or more days off. Tulsa is 0-7-1 ATS taking on a team with winning record and is 4-10 ATS off a spread loss, including eight failures in a row.

South Carolina at Kentucky 9:00E

The Wildcats will seek revenge for their lone defeat this season at the hands of the Gamecocks. In the 68-62 loss, Kentucky was “Downey-ized” by Devan Downey, who torched them for 30 points. One important element from the earlier matchup that played a key role was the undersized South Carolina squad held a +4 rebounding edge. Kentucky (26-1, 14-11 ATS) no doubt will seek redemption and is 13-4 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a road favorite.

Since their moment of the year, South Carolina (14-12, 9-14 ATS) has returned to being what they are, a slightly above average squad with limited ability in the paint and dependent on Downey to score and distribute the ball to others. The Gamecocks have shriveled up as visitors with 1-8 and 2-7 ATS record away from Columbia. South Carolina will need an even better performance to sweep Kentucky, but they are 3-12 ATS vs. shooting teams making 45 percent or more of their shots this season.

Big Blue is 11-1 and 8-4 ATS against South Carolina in Lexington, with last seven contests going OVER the number and they are a solid 16.5-point favorite to avenge loss.

Sports Bettors want a Super Tuesday

Two of the top five teams in the polls will be on the road and available for viewing this evening. No. 5 Michigan State travels to in-state rival Michigan for a tussle in the Wolverine State, while newly anointed No.1 Kentucky heads into hostile territory against South Carolina, who is off a crushing defeat. College basketball sports bettors are working feverishly to make this a Super Tuesday.

Spartans claim Michigan as their state

Michigan State (17-3, 8-11 ATS) showed their true grit at Minnesota, finding a way to win 65-64, to run their record to 7-0 (5-2 ATS) in the Big 10. The Spartans despite shooting just 39.3 percent kept battling and nipped the Golden Gophers at the end. Michigan State has won 16 of last 19 games against Michigan (10-9 ATS) and coach Tom Izzo still carries the torch for Spartans fans to wallop the Wolverines. “I’m motivated by the fact that every alum in this country is motivated by it (beat Michigan),” Izzo said Monday. “I’m motivated by it because it stands in the way of us hopefully getting our goals at the end of the year.

The Spartans are 7-0 ATS off a close road win by three points or less, winning by 17.3 points per game.

Michigan’s overall season has been a massive disappointment in Ann Arbor at 10-9, with similar 8-7 ATS record. The Wolverines were believed to be primed to make the NCAA Tournament for a second straight year after an 11-year drought, however, with a pedestrian record and just two noteworthy wins over Ohio State and Connecticut (both at Crisler Arena), it’s a call to action for Michigan. Coach John Beilein looks at the rest of the season this way, “You got to go on a big string at the end of the year or you have to peak at tournament time and win the tournament.

“Those are our two options right now.” The Wolverines are 9-2 ATS in home games after a conference game over the last two seasons.

Bookmaker.com has Michigan as 4.5-point home underdogs with total of 131, with team suffering from unrest. The Wolverines have lost last two games at Wisconsin and at Purdue, the latter without star guard Manny Harris after a one-game suspension for an undisclosed incident in Friday’s practice. Michigan is 9-1 ATS after playing two consecutive games as an underdog since last season and forward DeShawn Sims said the team was “back to normal,” after the suspension. Michigan State is 8-1 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less or pick, however is 2-15 ATS as a visitor after playing a game as a road underdog.

ESPN has the coverage at 7 Eastern and Meechigan has covered four in a row overall.

Top team hits the road

John Calipari may be lugging around excess baggage from a couple of his stops, however two elements about him are absolutely true, he can recruit and he can coach. Since the new year, Kentucky (19-0, 9-8 ATS) has faced a number of challenges home and away and at every critical juncture of these games, the Wildcats never gulped and met adversity head on to emerge victorious. Opponents have started gearing defenses to corral John Wall and take away either Patrick Patterson or DeMarcus Cousins. Nonetheless, an Eric Bledsoe or Daniel Orton comes in and provides the necessary lift for a team. The Wildcats ambushed Arkansas Saturday 101-70 in a home game that wasn’t that close and they are 9-2 ATS on the road after playing a game as a home favorite.

South Carolina (11-8, 7-9 ATS) has been a mild disappointment and losing two returning starters hasn’t helped. (Injury and suspension) The cure turns out be the great equalizer, scoring machine Devan Downey. The senior guard has been outstanding all season and evidently saved his best for last, being unstoppable in SEC action (31.6 points per game). Coach Darrin Horn had to retool his squad and focused on defense and rebounding in the frontcourt to take some of the pressure off Downey. The Gamecocks have to slow down Kentucky since they are 1-9 ATS at the Colonial Center vs. good offensive teams averaging 77 or more points.

South Carolina has to regroup after a heart-breaking last second loss at Florida 58-56, in which Downey drained 36 points. The Gamecocks are a lengthy seven-point home underdog and are 8-1 ATS off two straight losses against conference rivals over the last three seasons. Top-ranked Kentucky is 10-2 and 8-4 ATS roll in Columbia and is 9-2 ATS on the road playing only their second contest in eight days since last season.

This SEC showdown is set for 9 Eastern on ESPN, with South Carolina 0-7 all time taking on No.1.

Oh how the mighty have fallen

North Carolina (12-7, 6-11 ATS) has been an 8.5-point or more favorite over N.C. State (13-7,10-7-1 ATS) in last seven meetings, but tonight they might be a generous two-point choice in Raleigh against Wolfpack team that actually has better record. The Tar Heels will look to avoid a fourth consecutive defeat and are 9-3 SU and ATS at N.C. State.

One more day of college gridiron indulgence

All right, you made it this far, one more day of college football pageantry and you get your merit badge for taking in this many bowl games. After today’s group of five, its smooth sailing with individual games the rest of the way starting next week. Today’s five bowl contests take us to an unusual combination of locales throughout the day, starting in Toronto, heading south to Birmingham and Arlington, TX, followed by a trip to Memphis before ending in San Antonio. Kind of a where’s Waldo adventure. It doesn’t matter where they play them, as long as they do, with five more great betting opportunities on the second day of the New Year. Numbers from Bookmaker.com.

International Bowl
South Florida vs. Northern Illinois (+6.5, 50)
Rogers Centre – Toronto
12:00E ESPN2

The first three editions of this bowl north of the border weren’t all that competitive, as the Big East has swept the proceedings, including the last two by an average margin of 20.0 points per game. South Florida (7-5, 4-6 ATS) hopes to extend that streak when it takes on Northern Illinois (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS). The Bulls do not bring positive momentum, having gone both 2-5 SU and ATS in their previous seven outings. Northern Illinois is 7-5 but lost all four of its games (1-2-1 ATS) versus eventual bowl-qualifying teams. In fact, head coach Jerry Kill owns a 0-6 ATS record versus winning teams while with Northern Illinois.

Reason to watch and wager- On history alone South Florida gets the nod over Northern Illinois. The MAC is in the midst of another horrible bowl campaign (0-3, 0-2-1 ATS). The MAC is 1-8 SU against BCS conferences in last nine bowl games, with just two covers. The Bulls will have speed and superior athletes all over the field, but motivation certainly comes into question. Does a Big East team care about playing an average MAC team north of the border, well, that’s an easy answer. If freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels hits a few big plays against NIU, it’s easy to surmise South Florida comes out on top since they are 16-1 ATS when they gain nine or more net passing yards per attempt. For the Huskies it’s about getting to rushing average of 203 yards per game. If Northern Illinois can reach that threshold, they are 6-0 and 4-1 ATS this season.

3DW Line – South Florida by 6

Papajohns.com Bowl
Connecticut vs. South Carolina (-3.5, 51)
Legion Field – Birmingham
2:00E ESPN

Connecticut was the nation’s best spread-covering team in 2009, going 10-2 ATS, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog. Backers of the Huskies will look to go to the well one more time, as UConn is catching points vs. South Carolina. Both teams boast 7-5 records, with the Gamecocks having played one of the toughest schedules in the country. They were 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS against fellow bowl teams. This is just the fourth time in 2009 Steve Spurrier’s team will have played as favorites. South Carolina is 22-3 and 15-9 ATS as chalk in his tenure, including 1-1 in bowl games. For the Huskies, this is a fourth-ever bowl game and they are 2-1 SU and ATS.

Reason to watch and wager- If you can’t decide which team to wager on in this contest by the time you are reading this, it’s probably best to pass, since half of the 24 games these teams played were determined by seven or less points. South Carolina has to appeal to SEC to get out of horrific November slate that has then sliding each year or find ways to recruit better players. South Carolina has a good defense team (20.4 PPG vs. opps. scoring 28.1) and pedestrian offense averaging 21.7. The lack of a consistent passing game leaves the Gamecocks at 8-20 ATS after passing for 170 yards or less. Connecticut once again performed well in the role of the underdog and averaged a surprising 32.1 points per game this season. If QB Zach Frazier can stay as hot as Papa John’s pizza (rare unpaid product placement) , UConn can rise to 10-2 ATS with two or more weeks of preparation.

3DW Line – Connecticut by 3

Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Mississippi (-3, 50)
Cowboys Stadium – Arlington
2:00E FOX

Ole Miss and Oklahoma State last met in the 2004 Cotton Bowl, with quarterback Eli Manning and the Rebels pulling out a 31-28 win in his finale. The Rebels are 8-4 (5-5 ATS) in 2009 and will be putting a seven-game, non-conference ATS winning streak on the line versus the Cowboys. They have also fared well in bowl games with 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS record in their last eight. Oklahoma State has the better record (9-3, 6-5-1 ATS) versus a tougher schedule, yet plays as the underdog. The Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS all-time as bowl game underdog. The SEC has won and covered five of last six Cotton Bowls.

Reason to watch and wager -The Cotton Bowl is in name only changing venues to Jerry Jones palatial estate. This bowl matches two teams that didn’t live up to August Top 10 rankings. Oklahoma State at least had excuses not having two of its top three offensive stars for most of the season. This is a program in need of a quality win and they are just 9-18 ATS as an underdog. You hate to say it, but it was another Houston Nutt team that didn’t produce with expectations. Jevan Snead wilted under the limelight and was saved in part because of the brilliant play of Dexter McCluster, who carried the offense once November arrived. The Rebels are 30-14 ATS away from home playing against a team with a winning record. Think of this contest as mouthwash, with each team trying cleanse a less than desirable season.

3DW Line – Mississippi by 2

Liberty Bowl
Arkansas vs. East Carolina (-7.5, 59.5)
Liberty Bowl – Memphis
5:30E ESPN

East Carolina captured its second straight C-USA title by beating Houston in the league championship game 38-32. The reward of that accomplishment is another matchup with the SEC. The Pirates lost to Kentucky last season as favorites and in the 2010 edition and will be a good-sized underdog to high-scoring Arkansas. Coach Skip Holtz is 22-10 ATS as underdog and his team finished 6-1 and 5-2 ATS. The Razorbacks (7-5, 7-4 ATS) also played well down the stretch though, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their final five, while scoring 44.8 points per game. They have won just two of their past nine bowl matchups and are below average 3-6 against the spread.

Reason to watch and wager- East Carolina can pull the upset if their offensive and defensive lines can control the line of scrimmage. Coach Holtz learned from his father about the value of having linemen that can move the line of scrimmage either way. The Pirates can steal a victory if they move the chains against an Arkansas defense that yielded over 400 yards and have its talented front four bring consistent pressure QB Ryan Mallett. ECU’s pass defense is vulnerable in conceding 260 yards and without pocket pressure, they fall to 0-7 ATS in last seven non-conference games. Coach Bobby Petrino in an offensive mastermind and puts together great game plans to take advantage of opponent’s weakness. Expect him to do more of the same and hope his defense can make enough negative plays to influence the outcome of the game. The Razorbacks have covered six of last seven against teams with winning records.

3DW Line – Arkansas by 8

Alamo Bowl
Texas Tech vs. Michigan State (+7.5, 59.5)
Alamodome– San Antonio
9:00E ESPN

The Alamo Bowl game has been one of the few lately that Big Ten fans can actually look forward to. Their teams are 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS since 1995. Big Ten squads showcase a 20-9-1 ATS record in their last 30 bowl games as an underdog of four points or more, which is the case in San Antonio. For this year’s contest, Michigan State (6-6, 4-6-1 ATS) has a poorer record than Texas Tech’s 8-4 mark, yet has the edge in several offensive categories, including pass yards per attempt. The Red Raiders (6-5 ATS) have not covered their last four bowl games and the Big 12 is 4-11 ATS in Alamo Bowl appearances.

Reason to watch and wager- Unfortunately the main story line on the 15th bowl game in three days will have little to do with football. The whole Mike Leach episode will play out over time, but for this contest it creates an opportunity for Michigan State. It would seem some division would occur within the Red Raiders locker room taking away focus. Their offense while incredibly potent is based on timing, which can be affected by long layoff. Texas Tech offense moves a little quicker on the carpet and they are 45-28 ATS in games played on turf. Michigan State has a wretched secondary, surrendering 223 yards or more in eight of the 12 contests. This means they are wholly dependent on squeezing the opposing QB in the pocket. The Spartans were erratic offense, but were much better when they had offensive balance running the ball, which is not a sure thing against a decent Texas Tech defense. Michigan State is 3-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and covered just one contest in the second half of the season. This matchup looks like a Red Raiders rout, it all depends on their state of mind with shocking developments.

3DW Line – Texas Tech by 8

College Football Saturday Betting Options

It’s been jam-packed season of crazy occurrences in college football and we’re getting down to the nitty-gritty. With what the schedule looks like, this is the last chance for TCU to be knocked off facing quality Utah club. The Big Ten title is on the line in Columbus, but sports bettors believe it will be one-sided. Florida and Alabama look to keep matching towards what appears to be BCS semi-final tilt. Oregon’s slip last week left them no room for error if they expect to be Pac-10 champions. What about ABC promoting potential Notre Dame train-wreck, instead of just how good this Pittsburgh team is and that they will have real chance to knock off unbeaten Cincinnati in the coming weeks. Jimmy Football is even more fired up than usual about Saturday’s action. Odds courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Iowa (+16.5, 37.5) at Ohio State 3:30E ABC/GP

Ohio State (8-2 SU&ATS) understands their Big Ten fate after winning impressively at Penn State 24-7. The Buckeyes offense has never found a comfort zone and in recent weeks and has dipped into coach Jim Tressel’s bag of tricks to score or setup better field position to score points. Though quarterback Terrelle Pryor has made improvements this season, he’s not taken the big stride forward. Part is dissonant offensive line, barely average running backs and receivers lacking experience. The defense has been at usual Buckeye standards, holding eight opponents to 18 or fewer points, including three shutouts. Ohio State is 11-0 ATS the week after battle with Nittany Lions.

While Iowa (9-1, 6-3 ATS) had drawn comparisons to 2002 Ohio State national championship team by winning a large number of close games, they are not in the same class, which home loss to Northwestern proved. If anything, that Buckeyes team underachieved, winning half their games by seven or fewer points and having 19 players drafted over a two-year period. The Hawkeyes talent level is not anywhere close to that benchmark and has achieved success by playing hard and never giving up.

Iowa has trailed on the scoreboard in eight of nine wins this season and that was with Ricky Stanzi at quarterback. Now QB James Vandenberg gets his chance. Last week he had a lot of pressure on his, especially after the Hawkeyes fell behind. This week, nobody is giving the Hawkeyes a chance, as bettors have pounded Ohio State. Mental resolve goes a long way as Iowa has outscored the opposition 148-57 in the second half, including 107-44 in the final 15 minutes. Iowa will be a conference road underdog for the fourth time this season and they are 3-0 SU and ATS and 9-1 ATS on the road the last two seasons. Since 2000 the Hawkeyes are 17-10-1 ATS in this exact role.

Ohio State is 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS since 1989 against Iowa including five straight SU and ATS beat-downs with average margin 20 points per game. If Iowa doesn’t turn the ball over, they’ll have a great chance to cover, if they do, the Buckeyes build on aforementioned numbers over the Hawkeyes.

3DW Line – Ohio State by 17

Florida (-17.5, 42) at South Carolina 3:30E CBS

This is Florida’s last SEC game already, having peculiar schedule that ends with two non-conference tilts. Scheduling Florida International next is a wise move before annual confrontation with Florida State. The Gators (9-0, 4-4 ATS) haven’t always looked like the best team in the country, but has shown signs of putting everything together with last two wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. The red zone issues are being answered and Tim Tebow has been more in sync with his receivers, like Riley Cooper. The defense is as good as there is ranked second in the country (232.4 YPG), led by team leader and linebacker Brandon Spikes. Wide receiver Brandon James and TE Aaron Hernandez have dropped more passes than necessary this season and a game might be coming in which that could haunt Florida. The Gators are 8-1 ATS as SEC road chalk.

This is also South Carolina’s last conference clash and has just in-state rival Clemson left. Since scoring 28 points against Kentucky, the offense has not been able to turn digits on the scoreboard, averaging 12.2 points per game. Facing a hungry Gators defense is not the easiest way to find a way to manufacture points. Quarterback Stephen Garcia has to keep wits about him in the passing game with the pressure he will face and be on target when the Gamecocks (6-4, 5-5 ATS) are in position to put up points. This will be a touchdown game, not field goal fest. Senior linebacker Eric Norwood and defensive mates have to throw off the timing of Florida offense and force turnovers that can lead to points. They haven’t lately and are 3-12 ATS in home games after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers.

South Carolina is 4-7-1 ATS as home underdogs under coach Steve Spurrier. The former Gators head man is 1-3 and 2-2 ATS vs. his alma mater.

3DWLine – Florida by 15

Alabama (-12.5, 43.5) at Mississippi State 7:00E ESPN

Alabama (9-0, 6-3 ATS) has won six of last eight against Mississippi State; however that doesn’t tell the whole story. From 1996 to 2000, the Crimson Tide lost four of five to the Bulldogs, with a matching spread record. In the last two decades, Mississippi State has covered the spread 14 of 20 times and been a real nuisance to Bama. Other than Ole Miss, Alabama is the next biggest rival on the Bulldogs menu and for the most part aren’t even given consideration by Alabama, which irks the folks from Starksville to no end.

Part of the Crimson Tide’s lack of focus comes from having LSU just after or before the Bulldogs, just like this season. No team can be emotionally ready week after week and this is a plausible explanation for Alabama’s problems with Mississippi State. Alabama has had to make adjustments offensively. In the first part of the 2009 campaign, opponents made a concerted effort to take away WR Julio Jones. This took a player out of the box and running back Mark Ingram has had big year. More recently, Ingram has been the focus of attention and QB Greg McElroy’s inability to complete passes has prevented the Tide from taking advantage until last week. Bama is 13-7-1 ATS since 1999 as SEC road faves and is perfect 6-0 ATS as visiting team the last two seasons.

The Bulldogs (4-5, 5-3 ATS) have played every ranked team they have faced tough, losing by 10 or less points. New coach Dan Mullen is seeking a first year signature win to help attract better recruits and an upset of Alabama has them on the front page or home page of every sports news outlet. Mississippi State has one of the premier running games in the country (12th) at 219.2 yards per game, with Anthony Dixon toting the pigskin. The Bulldogs are 6-6 ATS as home dogs vs Top 10 teams in last dozen tries. Seven of last 11 conflicts have been UNDER the total.

3DWLine – Alabama by 12

Notre Dame (+6.5, 58.5) at Pittsburgh 8:00E ABC/GP

Notre Dame saw their BCS bowl aspirations drown in upset loss to Navy 23-21. What looked like a 10-2 season, could easily turn into 7-5, starting with Pittsburgh next. The not always Fighting Irish (6-3, 2-7 ATS) welcomed back receiver Michael Floyd last week, giving quarterback Jimmy Clausen his full complement of weapons, like he had in the first 2 ½ games of the season. With Golden Tate having All-American season, the offense will be as dangerous as it has been all season. The offensive line will be tested against top quality Pittsburgh defensive front that is among the top 10 in the country. Notre Dame’s defense is always a concern and they will have to play above proven ability to stop one of the balanced attacks in the country. The Irish are 2-11 ATS in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in previous game.

Once beaten Pittsburgh (8-1, 6-2 ATS) scheduled wisely for this brawl. The Panthers have yet to lose in the Big East and have closing games with West Virginia and Cincinnati to determine who wins the conference and the BCS berth. However, they can give Notre Dame their full attention with a bye next week. Arguably the most improved quarterback in the country is Bill Stull, who’s blossomed under new offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. A more harmonious offense line has kept Stull’s jersey clean and freshman RB Dion Lewis has made a big splash, as the nation’s first 1,000 yard rusher. Pitt stopped Syracuse 37-10 last week and is 16-5 ATS in home games off a win against Big East rival.

The Panthers are just 3-9 ATS versus Notre Dame including 1-4 ATS at home. The visitor has won and covered four in a row.

3DWLine – Pittsburgh by 13

Utah (+20, 47) at TCU 7:30E CBSC

This is potentially the last big game in the Mountain West Conference if Utah can’t pull the upset of highly-ranked TCU. The Utes (8-1, 3-6 ATS) have just one blemish in the loss column, which occurred at Oregon, a 31-24 loss as four-point road dogs. Utah’s defense allowed the Ducks just 312 yards on that mid-September afternoon and has only allowed 14.3 points per game since. The Utes have reputation for being effective when it counts most and they have won eight of their last nine games decided by a touchdown or less. Coach Kyle Whittingham made the tough choice, going with talented true freshman QB Jordan Wynn, who’s provided a lift, particularly in the red zone. Utah is celebrated 41-20 ATS as an underdog, including 12-1 ATS as a Mountain West road dog of three or more.

Since the decade began, TCU (6-3 ATS) has won 92 games and been a continual contender in the Mountain West, now in its fifth season. The Horned Frogs have higher expectations this year sporting 9-0 record. With a victory over Utah, only at Wyoming and New Mexico stand in the way of perfect season and possible BCS berth. Just how good has TCU been, take away the snow and wind contest at Air Force (20-17 win), they have conquered all other teams by average score of 39-10. The Horned Frogs have domineering defensive front and quickness throughout the defensive two-deep. After years of being an efficient game manager and good runner, QB Andy Dalton has become more accurate thrower, making TCU much more alarming on offense. The Frogs are 11-3 ATS as a home favorite over the last three seasons, winning by 26.3 points per game.

Utah is 5-1 and 4-2 ATS and has won three in a row in this confrontation. TCU is 17-1 and 15-3 ATS in November battles in Fort Worth.

3DW Line - TCU by 18

Arizona State (+18.5, 50.5) at Oregon 10:15E ESPN

The Oregon Ducks (7-2, 6-3 ATS) look to continue their march towards a Pac-10 title and have home game against the Sun Devils. Oregon’s seven game winning streak ended at Stanford with foul defensive performance. The offense is hardly a duck out of water, averaging over 40 points a game in conference action, including the 24 against UCLA when quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was out with knee injury. Opposing teams have much to fear, as one Pac-10 coach said about Ducks offense after watching USC massacre. “The execution was at the highest level I’ve ever seen someone run the spread option attack,”

Another aspect is the athleticism of the Oregon defense, which is evident watching them play (when motivated) and fly around to the ball. It’s no wonder they are 28-11 ATS when they allow 15 to 21 points.

Folks in Tempe are showing signs of restlessness after three straight Pac-10 losses and 2-5 record since starting 2-0. Injuries have been a big factor for a squad lacking any real depth. Rumors are circulating that Dennis Erickson has a coaching staff littered with too many cronies and not enough younger energetic types that can recruit and keep the players fired up. Erickson is also calling the offense and questionable clock management has surfaced in different games, with many believing the head coach’s plate is too full. The defense is well above average (15th in total defense); however they will have to be uncommonly extraordinary to slow Oregon. The Sun Devils are a pale 8-18-2 ATS as a conference club catching points.

Oregon has oppressed Arizona State (4-3 ATS) in last four meetings, winning and covering each time, with average differential 24 points a contest. These two schools have averaged 64 points per game the last three years.

3DWLine –Oregon by 18.5

Ole Miss in prickly SEC Opener

After sailing by S.E. Louisiana 52-6 last Saturday, Mississippi has to start living up to preseason hype and opens conference schedule on the road at South Carolina.

These are heady times at The Grove. Ole Miss (2-0, 1-0 ATS) is ranked 4th in the AP, their highest position in the polls since 1970, when the father of Peyton and Eli Manning was taking snaps in Oxford. The Rebels have won eight games in a row (6-1 ATS) for the first time in almost 37 years.

Coach Houston Nutt hopes the offensive line plays better, as quarterback Jevan Snead hasn’t looked as sharp as expected. Nutt has stated the O-Line has to do a better job sustaining blocks, especially at the tackle positions. The Rebels defense has been good and the secondary has come around faster than expected, however they will be tested by a Steve Spurrier offense rounding into shape under quarterback Stephen Garcia.

South Carolina (2-1, 3-0 ATS) is turning into the “ameba” of college football, taking on whatever shape needed to be competitive in a contest. In the opener, the defense led to a 7-3 victory and the offense scored 37 points in just coming up short at Georgia 41-37, as a touchdown underdog. Last week they handled Florida Atlantic at home 38-16, which means all options are available for this matchup. Garcia looks to be on the come, with a pair of very good performances. Spurrier has graded his team “OK” in all facets.

“We’re trying to get better in every area. We haven’t dominated in any particular phase. We haven’t been terrible but the whole team’s trying to get better. - Spurrier stated. The Gamecocks are 7-3 with ordinary 5-5 ATS record against the SEC West.

Bookmaker.com has Ole Miss as four-point favorites with total of 53. Though it’s only the first conference game of the year, the high ranking and expectations are from a bygone era and take getting used to. The Rebels are 4-8 ATS as a road favorite since 2001 and a loss means playing uphill all season with Alabama and LSU yet to come. Too many in-game hiccups could spell doom for Mississippi, who is 2-14 SU and ATS in SEC openers since 1993 and has lost five in a row and failed to cover 11(that is correct) straight.

In the last five meetings between these schools, the home team is 0-5 ATS, with the favorite covering the number only one time. Coach Nutt believes the defense is the strength of the team, which translates into South Carolina having a manageable running game for down and distance purposes. If not, Garcia could face stern Ole Miss pass rush, which in turn might lead to turnovers.

For fans of scoring trends, the Rebels are 9-0 ATS after scoring 40 or more points and South Carolina is 5-2 ATS off a 20-point or greater victory.

On ESPN, the Rebels lofty ranking will be challenged and something has to give on the total, with Mississippi 5-2 OVER on Thursday’s and the home team 6-2-1 UNDER on the same day of the week.

Super Saturday of College Football

Can you feel it? A full weekend of college and professional football, yea baby. We have two plays lined up in our Best System that is 26-4, not straight up, against the spread. We have a two for one price on the Top Trend, same game coming out a winner both ways. Slick Rick has his Free Play up. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- Did you have the same impression I did about Pittsburgh and Tennessee? The difference between the two teams at least in that game was at quarterback. Time to start looking for the next coach in Colorado, Dan Hawkins has not and will not succeed in Boulder. The first mistake, if you want to call it that, was having his son Cody as QB. He’s supposed to be 5’11, which is debatable. The younger Hawkins has fairly strong arm, but unlike a Chase Daniel, Drew Brees or even Doug Flutie from years ago, he’s not especially accurate. It’s also clear Cody’s not real comfortable rolling out, he’s more a “plant and chuck” quarterback as opposed to being able to run around or be particularly good with touch passes. As guys like to say, at the end of the day, how many BCS schools could Cody Hawkins play for that would be successful?

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season. This system is 26-4 ATS. 86.4 percent and says to play South Carolina and Fresno State. Two for two last week.

Free Football Trend -2) We have double angle that counts as one. Boston College is 11-1 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards a play in their previous game and Kent State is 2-14 ATS playing on a Saturday over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Slick Rick is taking the points with UNLV.

Guaranteed Plays here at 3Daily Winners.

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Early Line Moves

Next year 3Daily Winners expects to have a football newsletter, but in the meantime, we will offer Free inside information. When we say “inside information” we mean finding material not commonly found on other websites and blogs. In other words we had to figure it out. One popular and profitable segment I’ve followed for years is Early Line Moves.

If you read the interview with Fezzik, the professional bettor from Las Vegas, he explains how sharp bettors like himself hit the action early, pounding on weak numbers. (You can find the interview, take a minute or two) Over the years I’ve followed this regularly and over 77 percent of the time, the various segments I looked after have shown a profit over the season.

I mentioned last week about not being comfortable with Week 1 numbers, since bookmakers release them so early, it’s hard to tell if the action is sharps or squares. The numbers at least in my opinion bore this out, with the sides 5-8 and the totals 2-3 in college football. All I can say is be careful with the NFL this week. I’m assuming the CFB figures will be more reliable this week. (For those not familiar with this, the numbers showing are opening figures and those found early in the week to establish differences)

College Sides
Wake Forest Pick to -3
Washington -18 to -21
Missouri -16.5 to -19.5
Tulsa -14.5 to -17.5
USC -4.5 to -7

College Totals
So. Carol/Georgia 41 to 38
UCLA/Tenn 48 to 45
SMU/UAB 58 to 61
Pitt/Navy 53.5 to 49
Rice/Tex. Tech 72 to 66
BG/ Misso 61 to 57
Kansas/UTEP 66 to 62.5
K-State/ULL 64.5 to 58.5

NFL Sides
Baltimore -8.5 to -13
Philadelphia +1 to -2
Cincy -1 to -4
Dallas -3 to -6
San Diego -7 to -9

NFL Totals
Dall/TB 42 to 39
Wash/NYG 39.5 to 37
Chic/GB 44 to 46.5

College Football is Back!

Finally! After what seems like an eternity, all the talk about college football will cease and the games will be played, with salivating sports bettors ready for action. Five lined games will open the festivities and we’ll cover four of them here, including the very first one, South Carolina at N.C. State. Let the fun begin!

South Carolina at N.C. State

Folks in Columbia are still waiting for the Steve Spurrier magic to kick in. In four seasons, the ol’ ball coach is 28-22 and 26-20-1 against the spread. After losing last three games, including bowl invite by a combined score of 118-30, the never satisfied Spurrier changed out five coaches trying to find magic formula to turn South Carolina into SEC contender. With only 12 starters returning, Chris Angel would have a hard time making this illusion work. Previous quarterbacks have transferred out except for sophomore Stephen Garcia, who has worked on being better passer to match his athletic running style. The offense only rushed for 94.1 yards per game last year and new line coach Eric Wolford is preaching toughness. The defense has talent in front seven; however secondary has to be rebuilt after finishing second in the country in passing yards allowed. The Gamecocks are just 2-6 ATS in last eight road games.

North Carolina State closed the 2008 regular season with four wins to earn bowl berth, before falling 29-23 to an equally hot Rutgers club in the Papajohns.com bowl. Coach Tom O’Brien’s disciplined style started to take root and 15 starters are coming back from last year’s turnaround squad. O’Brien enters his third season in Raleigh with 11-14 record, though has bettors attention with 15-8 ATS mark. Leading the way is ACC Rookie of the Year Russell White, who tossed 17 touchdowns, with only one interception. The offensive line should be steady with three starters back, however quality depth is nonexistent beyond starting five. The linebackers are difference-makers and the defensive line has potential All-ACC performers Alan-Michael Cash and Willie Young. The secondary has questions that will have to be answered for another bowl trip for a squad that is on 7-0-1 ATS run to start a new campaign.

With weeks to look at the side and total from Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets, sports bettors have taken N.C. State from three-point favorites to five. The total has remained relatively stable moving from 45 to 46.

North Carolina State was embarrassed 34-0 at South Carolina as two touchdown underdogs last year and are looking forward to return engagement at Carter-Finley Stadium this go-round. This matchup will once again be on ESPN at 7 Eastern and coach Steve Spurrier is only 7-7 against the spread in non-conference games and has usual early date with Georgia next on September 12. South Carolina is 2-7-1 ATS facing non-conference foes before the Bulldogs. N.C. State is 4-1-1 ATS hosting the Gamecocks.

Troy at Bowling Green

This game will garner very little attention on the national scope, however is extremely important to Troy and the Sun Belt Conference. The SBC teams have for years taken paydays to be somebody’s patsy (they still will, just less frequently); however they have a goal in mind today. The Sun Belt wants to gain recognition like the MAC teams and in order to surpass them and gain bragging rights, they have to start knocking them off.

Troy is the unanimous choice to win the Sun Belt and is loaded on both sides of the ball. If the offensive line comes together, the Trojans could surpass last year’s offense that averaged more than 32 points per game. Defensively, the athletic front seven is a load for a team that is 7-3 ATS on the non-conference road.

First year coach Dave Clawson is right about his team’s non-conference schedule, “It’s a really challenging schedule,” Clawson said about playing Troy, Boise State, at Missouri and at Marshall. “The one thing I do know is that we will be well-prepared for our MAC schedule by the time we are through with our out-of-conference schedule.” With just 10 starters returning, the Eagles might be hard pressed to improve on 3-10 ATS home record the last three years. Troy is touchdown favorite.

North Texas at Ball State

On ESPNU at 7:30 Eastern, two other Sun Belt and MAC teams will collide. North Texas ruled the SBC in the early years of this decade, no more, having won five conference games in last four years. Coach Todd Dodge is convinced the personnel is improving and if his redshirt freshman son Riley can rev up the offense, brighter days could be ahead in Denton for a team that is 0-20 and 2-18 ATS in non-conference road games.

Ball State won’t look like the same team. A new coach, new quarterback and four new offensive linemen are where it starts in Muncie. Redshirt freshman Kelly Page takes over for prolific passer Nate Davis and hopes his line will give him time to show off his arm. The defense switches to 4-3 from 3-4, however has speed and athletes on this side of the ball seldom seen on the Ball State campus. The Cardinals are 16-point favorites and are 7-1 ATS as home chalk.

Utah at Utah State

It will be a tough encore for Utah after completing 13-0 season and ranked No.2 in the final polls after taking apart Alabama 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl. The Utes lost QB Brian Johnson to graduation and coach Kyle Whittingham has decided to keep everyone in suspense about who his new signal caller will be. Blog reports from observers have seen junior college transfer Terrance Cain taking the majority of the snaps with the first team. Utah is listed as 21-point favorite over in-rival Utah State and they are 10-5-1 ATS as 20-point or more choice.

Utah players and coaches will see a familiar face on the Aggies sideline in Gary Andersen, who has been the Utes defensive coordinator the last three seasons. Anderson has brought excitement to Logan, though the talent will still have to arrive later. In “The Battle of the Brothers” Utah is 11-0 and 8-3 ATS since 1998, with the visitor 8-1 ATS. This is on the MTN at 9:00 Eastern.

What’s up with the SEC in College Hoops?

For much of the 1980’s and a good part of the 1990’s, SEC basketball was a kindly distraction after the Southeastern Conference football season was completed and spring football began. Oh sure, Kentucky was always in the mix of top teams in the country, but they were a basketball school compared to the rest of the league. That’s not to say they didn’t play good basketball in the SEC, every now and again an Alabama or Vanderbilt would rise into the higher stratosphere of the Top 10 and have exceptional years and then the coach would leave for a better paying job someplace else.

Everything started to change when Nolan Richardson came to Arkansas and he led the Razorbacks to national championship in 1995. Two years later the SEC had two teams in the Final Four and Rick Pitino led Kentucky to a national title. After taking the Wildcats to the championship the following year, Pitino felt compelled (money) to test his skills in the NBA and Tubby Smith moved into the Kentucky hot seat and won the NCAA championship with Pitino’s players.

The conference transformed into a hotbed of talent, arenas were filling up and excitement was on the rise. Hot coaching prospects were brought in to compete with Kentucky and almost every year the SEC had four teams in the Sweet 16. Billy Donovan, a Pitino protégé lit a fire under Florida’s basketball, culminating with back-to-back national titles in 2006-07. So what happened?

For the second week in a row, the SEC does not have a team ranked in the Top 25 which has become a topic of discussion on college basketball telecasts and halftime shows. If you include the ESPN/USA Today Top 25, the last time this conference did have a team in the Top 25 two weeks in a row was the 1997-98 season. How can the SEC not have a ranked team is the question?

Let’s start with the computer guys, Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin. Pomeroy has KenPom.com college basketball ratings that are very sophisticated and he at least sees Kentucky at No. 20, with Florida at No. 38. Sagarin has the bigger brand name with his USA Today affiliation and he has the Wildcats 31st and the Gators 33rd.

Part of the problem with SEC is shooting. This league has Kentucky and Florida both shooting over 49 percent and South Carolina isn’t bad at 47.4 percent. However, only the Gamecocks and LSU shoot over 38 percent from beyond the arc. Skeptics will point towards the basketball numbers being similar to what happens in football, defense rules in the South.

The SEC has six teams that allow under 40 percent of shots to be made. Sounds impressive, until you realize the Big East has five teams and the ACC has an astonishing eight teams that also play stellar defense.

The truth is the SEC doesn’t even belong in the same conversation as the other two conferences just mentioned and here’s why.

Reviewing the Sagarin ratings by conference, the Southeastern has 10 teams with a schedule difficulty of 193rd or worse. Consider the ACC and the Big East has only one team each (N.C. State and Rutgers respectively) that have played a schedule worse than a 193rd and the Pac-10 team with the easiest slate is UCLA at 136th.

In addition, it’s not like the SEC has routed all these pushover opponents. Where do we start? Georgia lost to Loyola-Chic by 21 and somebody named Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Arkansas beats top Big 12 teams Oklahoma and Texas at home and shows its multiple personalities in starting 0-3 in conference along with losing to Missouri State. Ole Miss has had more then their share of injuries, yet losing to Southern Miss by 19 and by 33 at New Mexico as four point underdogs, ranks right up their with Alabama and Auburn losing to Mercer, who is a middle of the road club in the mighty Atlantic Sun Conference. Kentucky was the one who started this whole mess, losing season and home opener to VMI 111-103.

Nothing is really to be learned from studying numbers against the spread and too few conference games have been played to really make an astute judgment otherwise.

This is a league largely devoid of senior talent, with its best player’s juniors and sophomores. Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson at Kentucky, Tyler Smith at Tennessee, Nick Calathes at Florida and O.J. Ogilvy at Vanderbilt could compete with any five all-conference performers in the country, but going to the bench for almost as good second team would expose this league.

Most of the freshmen with high expectations have not shined as brightly as expected, and have been up and down, like you would expect a freshman to play.

The coaching carousel has spun, which hasn’t helped and others that have shorter service have not stepped up. South Carolina and LSU are presumed to improve with talented coaches like Darrin Horn and Trent Johnson, but guaranteed success, not likely. Patience in running thin at Auburn and Georgia, where Jeff Lebo and Dennis Felton have not met, let alone exceeded fans expectations. Coaches at Arkansas, Mississippi and even Billy Gillispie to a lesser degree at Lexington are still trying to feel comfortable.

Can the SEC improve before the NCAA tournament, without a doubt. A few wins can gel a club and they go on a tear. However, they will have to do so playing primarily each other, which could be good or like the Big Ten in football, create false pretense, which is later exposed.

Betting the SEC is a tricky proposition until we have a better read on the teams, which might not ever happen this season.

January 2, Let'r Rip

My goodness, USC is just head and shoulders above almost anybody. It would be fantastic to see them play the winner of next week’s BCS title game. I could all but guarantee they would be favored. It was obvious South Carolina acted like they could have cared less about playing against Iowa. I think the Ol’ Ball Coach is recruiting too many players who have ability, but a me-first attitude.

Nice way to start the New Year at 2-0 and will suggest to start keep an eye on the Gamecocks basketball team instead today in the Top Trend. Have a rather interesting NBA Totals System that has been delivering winners at 82.5 percent clip. The LCC came back with excellent day and we have today’s consensus plays. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY UNDER on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points - off a home non-cover like Sacramento performed, where the team won straight up as a favorite and are well rested team playing six or less games in exactly two week period. This Totals system is 28-6, 82.5 percent over the last five seasons, including 3-0 this NBA season. The average total score is eight points below today’s posted total of 188.5.

Free Basketball Trend -2) South Carolina basketball team is 8-0 ATS in road games after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.

Free Football Selections -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus rebounded nicely with 4-1 day, more back to their usual standards. Today Ole Miss is at 57 percent, Kentucky at 75 percent, and Alabama at 61.5 percent.

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New Year’s Day Bowl Games Early Starters

Happy New Year! With the advent of 2009 (doesn’t the turn of the century seem like it wasn’t that long ago) the Cotton Bowl opted out for a date for tomorrow, helping out all of us that had a little too much fun and stayed up a little too late last night. On paper at least, we appear to have three games that have possibilities of being close. The old-school belief is now when the favorites start coming in with regularity in bowl contests, let’s see if the New Year starts out that way.

Outback Bowl - Iowa vs South Carolina

More than one eyebrow was raised when this contest was announced to start the New Year’s Day bowl festivities. This makes this a more compelling meeting for each, looking to erase doubts. Iowa started 3-3, with three defeats by nine points. The Hawkeyes put it together, culminating in an upset of Penn State. After 55-0 drubbing of Minnesota, Iowa is 17-5 ATS after a game committing no turnovers. The vaunted South Carolina defense caved in for 87 points in last two losses, with zero help from offense. With Iowa solid defensively, surprisingly the Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS vs teams who give up 14 or less PPG. The Hawkeyes are meager 2-6 ATS as bowl favorite, with USC marginally better 2-4 ATS as dog.

Why to Watch and Wager

Steve Spurrier is very aware his team has faded down the stretch the last two years. In fact losing the last couple of games have become common place in Columbia, having done so six of the last seven seasons. Spurrier, seldom the positive sort, has taken a more positive approach since losing to Clemson and wants his players to enjoy the moment and end the season on upbeat note. It might not be that easy for the Gamecocks who are 3-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 2-6-1 ATS as an underdog. Iowa has won five of last six with ball-hawking defense that is +8 in turnover margin during this streak. Running back Shonn Greene has led the Hawkeyes offense and they have gotten just enough out the passing game to average 30.2 points per game. Iowa is 12-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. In the Outback Bowl, the favorite is 14-6 against the spread with Big Ten 4-2 ATS.

Bookmaker.com Line – Iowa -3.5, 43

Capital One Bowl- Michigan State vs Georgia

Michigan State (9-3, 6-6 ATS) is playing in a New Year’s Day bowl for the first time in nine seasons as they believe they are on the right track to make this annual event. The Spartans were waxed 49-18 by Penn State in their finale, but that’s nothing new and coach Mark Dantonio teams are 9-1 ATS after a loss by 17 or more points. Possibly Georgia (9-3, 3-6-2 ATS) could have lived up to the preseason hype of number one if they could have fielded the team they thought they had in July, but injuries took care of any dreams. Coach Mark Richt teams traditionally have been good away from home, 15-6 ATS playing against a team with 75 percent or higher win percentage. The Bulldogs are good 15-11 ATS in bowls (7-3 ATS L10), with Spartans 5-4 ATS as underdogs.

Why to Watch and Wager

For Georgia, it’s about getting the running game going against Michigan State. In the Bulldogs three losses, Knowshon Moreno was held under the century mark. The coaches have also reviewed the run defense, which allowed 226.4 yards per game in last five encounters, including distressing 409 to Georgia. The Bulldogs are 1-5-1 ATS as favorites in last seven outings. Michigan State assuredly will test that Georgia front with Javon Ringer, who finished third nationally in rushing at 132.5 yards per game and tied for second in touchdowns with 21. Quarterback Brian Hoyer needs to play well for the Spartans to pull the upset and Michigan State is 10-4 ATS vs. teams with winning records. This bowl has been recently dominated by the Big Ten with five covers in six games, with the only loser being in overtime. In fact, the Big Ten has a streak of four consecutive outright upsets in Orlando.

Bookmaker.com Line – Georgia -7.5, 55

Gator Bowl - Clemson vs Nebraska

Clemson University rewarded Dabo Swinney with head coaching position, for making the best of difficult situation and guiding the Tigers (7-5, 4-6 ATS) to three wins to close the season. Clemson finally lived up to preseason hype, with defense that was ranked 15th overall. They will be called on again against high-powered Nebraska offense that scores 36.2 points per game. The Cornhuskers (8-4, 6-6 ATS) made strides to return to past glories with eight wins this season. Nebraska is a ball-hog on offense, holding it for over 33 minutes a game. The Huskers out-played Colorado in final home game, yet is 0-7 ATS after out-gaining foe by 125 or more total yards. Oddly, Nebraska is 15-15 ATS in bowls. The ACC is 7-0 ATS in this bowl, though Clemson was the last loser in 2001 game.

Why to Watch and Wager

After a tumultuous season, Clemson can still cap the year with a New Year’s Day triumph. The Tigers are making their ninth Gator Bowl appearance and have the same number of functioning weapons they had to start the season. Quarterback Cullen Harper and the backfield of James Davis and C.J. Spiller were all swallowed up by ineffective offensive line, until gaining confidence late in year, which allowed them to win four of five. It should be noted, Clemson averaged just 16.8 points per game away from home compared to 25.5 overall. The Tigers are only 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Nebraska returns to bowl game after one year absence and plays in this bowl for the first time ever. Senior quarterback Joe Ganz was among the plethora of fine signal callers in the Big 12. The Cornhuskers won five of last six and averaged 38 points per game in last three. Even in winning, Nebraska average better than two turnovers a game and is 2-10 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up wins. The favorite has cashed in nine of last 12 Gator Bowls.

Bookmaker.com Line – Clemson -2, 56